‫ت‬ ‫ا‬ ‫و ا ي‬ ‫ﻣ‬

‫ور‬ ‫كا‬ ‫ن‬ ‫ا‬ ‫وى‪ :‬ا‬

‫ا ر‬ ‫كا‬ ‫و‬ ‫ك ا وم ا ر‬ ‫ل‪:‬‬ ‫ا ما‬ ‫•‬
‫ك ا وم ا‬ ‫ك ا داب و‬ ‫‪:‬‬ ‫ا داب و ا وم ا‬ ‫•‬
‫ي '&ھ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ت‬ ‫ذ ﻣ دة ا‬ ‫أ‬ ‫ذ‬ ‫ز‪:‬ا‬ ‫ﻣ" ا‬

‫ﻣﻠﺨﺺ درس اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت‬

‫ث آ‪9‬‬ ‫ھ‪-‬‬ ‫‪C" 3 42‬‬
‫" ظ ‪-‬ر ر ‪4 $'( S‬‬ ‫' ‪ * (+‬ا) (‪ -‬ﻣ ‪ , -‬ت‪:‬‬
‫‪C = {3; 6} : #‬‬ ‫‪ P:‬و ‪F‬‬ ‫و‬ ‫أن‬ ‫* ط‪:1‬‬
‫ا ‪ 7‬ث ‪ A ∩ B‬ھ‪ -‬ا ‪ 7‬ث ‪ A‬و ‪ B‬و أ ! (ط‪ ,‬ا ‪ A P 7‬و ‪B‬‬ ‫ة وا ة‬
‫‪+ #‬‬ ‫∅ = ‪ A ∩ B‬و = ل ا ‪ A " ; ,‬و ‪ 46 # B‬أو‬ ‫ھ ه ا *‪ ( ) ( *+ * , -! % . ' +‬و'&‪ $%‬أ و ‪! "#‬‬
‫}‪A ∩ C = {6‬‬ ‫!‪-&2 ' +‬ا‪, -! % . ' +! $ 1‬‬ ‫ا ‪ (+‬ا ‪ */‬ا) (‪:‬‬
‫‪(P‬‬ ‫ا ‪ ,‬ث ا‪ +9‬ا) ‪ $ :‬ث ‪-*7‬ي ‪ 42‬إ ‪ (%‬وا ة‬
‫) (‪.‬‬ ‫* ‪( *+‬‬
‫}‪ A ∩ C = {6‬ث ا'* ا‪. 1‬‬
‫ﻣ ل‪:‬‬ ‫‪ (+‬ا ‪ */‬ا) (؟‬ ‫)‪ 3‬ھ‪2‬ه ا‬ ‫ﻣھ‬
‫ا ‪ 7‬ث ‪ A ∪ B‬ھ‪ -‬ا ‪ 7‬ث ‪ A‬أو ‪. B‬و أ ا!‪(7‬د ا ‪ A P 7‬و ‪B‬‬ ‫‪ P :‬أو ‪F‬‬ ‫‪ %‬ا ‪-67‬ل ‪42‬‬
‫ا ‪ 7‬ث ‪ A ∪ B = {1; 2;3; 4;5; 6} = Ω‬ھ‪ -‬ا ‪ 7‬ث ا@‬
‫أ‪ 9‬ى‬ ‫‪ F‬ھ ا ‪(%‬‬ ‫و‬ ‫‪ P‬ھ ا ‪(%‬‬
‫}‪A ∪ C = {2;3; 4; 6‬‬
‫إ ‪. (%‬‬ ‫إﻣ‪-&2 ' +* + * $ :( 4‬ا‪! 1‬‬
‫‪D" 3 42‬‬ ‫*) ا ‪ 7‬ث ا *( ‪ 2 " :‬م ظ ‪-‬ر ر ‪4 $'( S‬‬ ‫اذن ه ا *‪ ' +‬إ ‪ = > * (%‬اذن ‪ 2- +‬ا‪( (% .‬ت ھ ‪:‬‬
‫ا ‪ 7‬ث ا ‪(B‬د ‪ 74‬ث ‪C‬‬ ‫ا ‪ 7‬ث }‪D = {1; 2; 4;5‬‬
‫} ‪Ω = { P; F‬‬
‫و ‪D = C L*%‬‬
‫@ ? (‪- Ω % :‬ن إ ‪-&2 ' +! (%‬ا‪, 1‬‬ ‫‪-‬ن‬ ‫‪ $‬ا? ‪( (%‬ت *‪-&2 ' +‬ا‪! 1‬‬ ‫ت‪2- + :‬‬ ‫‪ 8‬ن ا‪6‬ﻣ‪4‬‬
‫"‬ ‫‪( ! W > #2‬وي ا‪.( * .‬ت >( ( * (ل ث‬
‫‪CardA‬‬ ‫أ ‪ (B‬ا ‪ 7‬ث ا@ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ,Ω‬و !‬ ‫( '(‬ ‫ا? ‪( (%‬ت و‬
‫= ) ‪ p ( A‬و ‪ (#‬أ ‪:(B‬‬ ‫) ‪ p ( A‬و ‪:(#‬‬ ‫'(‬
‫‪Card Ω‬‬ ‫>‪(B‬ء ا? ‪( (%‬ت وا ‪) card ( Ω ) = 2 : '(*%‬إ ‪* (%‬‬ ‫أو!‬
‫ث ‪0 ≤ p (A ) ≤ 1, A‬‬ ‫‪ p ( Ω ) = 1‬و ‪ p (φ ) = 0‬و ‪$%‬‬
‫ا ‪Ω 2- +‬‬ ‫> =(! أ ر‪1‬‬
‫) (‬
‫ث ‪p A = 1 − p ( A ) (# A‬‬ ‫و ‪$%‬‬
‫**( *‬ ‫!‬ ‫* ط‪:2‬‬
‫‪ A‬و ‪) B‬أي ‪( A ∩ B = φ‬‬ ‫‪+ #‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬ ‫و ‪$%‬‬
‫‪ (+‬ا ‪ */‬ا) (؟‬ ‫)‪ 3‬ھ‪2‬ه ا‬ ‫ﻣھ‬
‫) ‪p (A ∪ B ) = p (A ) + p (B‬‬
‫‪ PP :‬أو ‪ FF‬أو ‪ FP‬أو ‪PF‬‬ ‫‪ %‬ا ‪-67‬ل ‪42‬‬
‫‪(#‬‬ ‫‪A‬و ‪B‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬ ‫و ‪$%‬‬
‫) ‪. p (A ∪ B ) = p (A ) + p (B ) − p (A ∩ B‬‬ ‫أ‪ 9‬ى‬ ‫‪ PP‬ھ اﻣ‪ ( 4‬و ‪ FF‬ھ ا ‪(%‬‬
‫ﻣ ل‪ A :‬و ‪(P B‬ن !) (ن '‪ X #‬ا *‪ ' +‬ا &‪-‬ا‪:H 7' 1‬‬ ‫ه ا *‪ 4 ' +‬ا ‪( (%‬ت > = اذن ‪ 2- +‬ا‪( (% .‬ت ھ ‪:‬‬ ‫اذن‬
‫‪ p ( A ) = 0, 7‬و ‪ p ( B ) = 0, 4‬و ‪. p ( A ∩ B ) = 0, 3‬‬ ‫}‪Ω = { PP; FF ; PF ; FP‬‬
‫‪ p A‬و ‪ p B‬و ) ‪p (A ∪ B‬‬ ‫‪( ) ( ) :L‬‬ ‫أ‬
‫وھ >‪(B‬ء ا? ‪( (%‬ت و ‪ 4) card ( Ω ) = 4 : (#‬ا ‪( (%‬ت > =(‬
‫) (‬
‫اب‪p A = 1 − p ( A) = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3 :‬‬ ‫ا‬
‫‪ $‬ا‪( (% .‬ت‬ ‫‪ (# %‬ا‪( *J‬ل ‪ +I‬ة ا? ‪( (%‬ت ‪2 H7)4‬‬
‫) (‬
‫‪p B = 1 − p ( B ) = 1 − 0.4 = 0.6‬‬
‫ا‪9 :9‬ت و ﻣ ‪ , -‬ت‪:‬‬
‫‪ 6‬وا ة‬ ‫‪1‬إ‬ ‫د ‪ L %‬و و ‪-‬ھ" ا *‬ ‫&(ط‪ :4‬ر‬
‫) ‪p ( A ∪ B ) = p ( A) + p ( B ) − p ( A ∩ B‬‬
‫ھ‪-&2 ' +! -‬ا‪ 1‬و ‪-‬ن ا? ‪( (%‬ت ا !)= ' ه ا *‪' +‬‬
‫‪= 0.7 + 0.4 − 0.3 = 0.8‬‬ ‫ھ‪Ω = {1; 2;3; 4;5; 6} :-‬‬
‫وأ اع ا ‪: ,B‬‬ ‫*) ‪" :‬ا ‪-67‬ل ‪ 2 42‬د زو " ‪A = {2; 4; 6} # A‬‬
‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪n‬‬
‫‪p‬‬
‫* ‪$‬ا‬ ‫• ‪ #2‬ا ‪ ,'(** (' L7‬و' ون إ ‪Y‬ل‬ ‫‪(P‬‬ ‫‪ A‬ء ا ‪-%‬ن ‪ Ω‬و‬
‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪n‬‬
‫‪p‬‬
‫* ‪$‬ا‬ ‫• ‪ #2‬ا ‪ L7‬ا‪Z‬‬ ‫إ ‪ (%‬أو أ ‪) R‬أي ‪ $‬ء‬ ‫ا ‪ 7‬ث‪-% 2- + $ :‬‬
‫* ‪ ) $‬أ ا ‪ +‬اء‬ ‫• ‪ #2‬ا ‪ ,'(** (' L7‬و'[ ‪Y‬ل‬ ‫ا ‪-%‬ن ‪.( Ω‬‬
‫ا ‪2(,D‬‬ ‫أ ‪ E/+ F‬ا ﻣ (‬ ‫‪B = {1;3;5} : #‬‬ ‫" ظ ‪-‬ر ر ‪ > S‬دي "‪ B‬ھ‪ -‬ث آ‪9‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫ذ‪:‬‬ ‫ا‬
 A
4
7
= 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 = 840 ( ‫أﻣ‬: ,B ‫وأ اع ا‬
‫ ت‬D & ‫ ا‬- I' ,B ‫ا‬: 4‫ﻣ ل‬ 3 ‫(ء و‬B ' ‫ات‬ 5 42 ]I( ‫ وق‬#\ ‫ي‬-*7 :1‫ﻣ ل‬
‫اء‬ ‫ات‬ 5 ‫(ء و‬B ' ‫ ات‬3 42 ]I( ‫ وق‬#\ ‫ي‬-*7
‫ وق > آن وا‬#6 ‫ا‬ ! ( 1‫ا‬-&2 L7 ‫او‬ ! ‫داء و‬-J ‫ات‬
‫( (ت‬% ?‫(ء ا‬B> -‫ ھ‬Ω H card ( Ω ) ‫ د‬.1 ‫ة وا ة‬ ‫ وق‬#6 ‫ا‬ ( 1‫ا‬-&2 L7
: (* ‫ د ا * (ل ا@ اث ا‬.2 ‫( (ت‬% ?‫(ء ا‬B> -‫ ھ‬Ω H card ( Ω ) ‫د‬ .1
R" ‫او‬ ! L7J " B" ‫(و‬B ' ! L7J "
M" ‫ن‬-4 ‫ ا‬X ! L7J " : (* ‫د ا * (ل ا@ اث ا‬ .2
D" ]4*b ‫ن‬- ! L7J "
8! 8! 8 × 7 × 6! 8 × 7 " ‫ و‬N " ‫داء‬-J ‫ة‬ L7J " ‫و‬ B" ‫(ء‬B ' ‫ة‬ L7J "
= = = = = 28 (1:(+ J ‫ا‬
2!( 8 − 2 ) ! 2!6! 2!6! 2! D" ‫داء‬-J ‫ة‬ L7J ‫ م‬2 " ‫و‬ R" ‫اء‬ ‫ة‬ L7J
card ( Ω ) = C 2
8 card ( Ω ) = 10 (1:‫اب‬-+ ‫ا‬
C 2
10 C 3 2 ‫ وق‬#6 ‫ ات > ا‬% ‫ د ا‬2 ‫ ') (ط‬-‫وھ‬
CardR CardB
p (R) = == = 5
p (B) = == 3 = (2
Card Ω Card Ω ‫و‬ CardN 3 CardB 5 1
p(N ) = p (B) =
28 28 28 28 = = = (2
5! 5! 5 × 4 × 3! 5 × 4 Card Ω 10 Card Ω 10 2
C 5 = 2!( 5 − 2 )! = 2!3! = 2!3! = 2! = 10
2

CardR 2 1
p (R) = = =
! ‫أو‬ ‫(و‬B ' ! L7J ‫ن أي‬-4 ‫ ا‬X ! L7J Card Ω 10 5
CardM C + C5 3 + 10 13
2 2
‫او‬
p(M ) = == 3 = = GH‫ وﻣ‬D = N ‫ أي‬N ‫ ث‬74 ‫(د‬B ‫ ث ا‬7 ‫ ا‬-‫ ھ‬D
Card Ω 28 28 28
GH‫ وﻣ‬D = M ‫ أي‬M ‫ ث‬74 ‫(د‬B ‫ ث ا‬7 ‫ ا‬-‫ ھ‬D
( )
p ( D ) = p N = 1 − p ( N ) = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7
( ) 13 15
p ( D) = p M = 1− p ( M ) = 1− =
28 28
: ‫أ اص‬ 42 ]I( ‫ وق‬#\ ‫ي‬-*7 :2‫ﻣ ل‬
‫ ار‬4' ‫ ون‬+ ‫ ت‬M ' ‫ ا‬-‫ل‬K:‫ ون إ‬+ ,B ‫ا‬:5‫ﻣ ل‬
‫داء‬-J ‫ ات‬4‫(ء و‬B ' ‫ ات‬3 42 ]I( ‫ وق‬#\ ‫ي‬-*7 ‫ و‬2 S ‫ن ا‬-4 7 S # ‫ث أ اص‬YP ‫ و‬1 S ‫ن ا‬Y 7 S # ‫\(ن‬
: ‫ وق‬#6 ‫ا‬ ! ‫ل‬Y ‫ و' ون إ‬,'(** (' ( 1‫ا‬-&2 L7
4 S ‫ ا‬$ 7! ‫أ اص‬ )J
‫( (ت‬% ?‫(ء ا‬B> -‫ ھ‬Ω H card ( Ω ) ‫ د‬.1
‫\( وا ا‬ ‫ وق‬#6 ‫ا‬ ( 1‫ا‬-&2 L7
: (* ‫ د ا * (ل ا@ اث ا‬.2
B" ‫(و‬B ' ! L7J " ‫( (ت‬% ?‫(ء ا‬B> -‫ ھ‬Ω H card ( Ω ) ‫د‬ .1
N " ‫داو‬-J ! L7J "
card ( Ω ) = A72 = 7 × 6 = 42 (1:‫ا اب‬ : (* ‫د ا * (ل ا@ اث ا‬ .2
CardB A 3× 2 1 2
S ‫ا‬$ 7 ‫ص‬ L7J " A" 1 S ‫ ا‬$ 7 ‫ص‬ L7J "
p (B) = == 3 = = (2
Card Ω 42 7 × 6 7
C" ‫ زو‬S ‫ ر‬$ 7 ‫ص‬ L7J " B"3
CardN A2 4 × 3 2 × 2 × 3 2
p(N ) = == 4 = = =
Card Ω 42 7 × 6 7×6 7 ‫ص‬ L7J " D" 2 ‫(وي‬ ‫أو‬ a\‫ أ‬S ‫ ر‬L7J "
:‫ ار‬4 + ‫ ت‬M ' ‫ ا‬-‫ل‬K:N+ ,B ‫ا‬: 6‫ﻣ ل‬ E" 1 S ‫ ا‬$ 7 .
‫داء‬-J ‫ ات‬4‫(ء و‬B ' ‫ ات‬3 42 ]I( ‫ وق‬#\ ‫ي‬-*7
‫ل‬Y ['‫ و‬,'(** (' ( 1‫ا‬-&2 L7 card ( Ω ) = 12 (1:‫اب‬ ‫ا‬
‫ وق‬#6 ‫ ات > ا‬% ‫ د ا‬2 ‫ ') (ط‬-‫وھ‬
: ‫ وق‬#6 ‫ا‬ !
‫( (ت‬% ?‫(ء ا‬B> -‫ ھ‬Ω H card ( Ω ) ‫د‬ .1 p ( A) =
CardA 2 1
= = p ( B) =
CardB 0
= = 0 (2
Card Ω 12 6 Card Ω 12
: (* ‫د ا * (ل ا@ اث ا‬ .2
CardD 5 CardC 10 5
N " ‫داو‬-J ! L7J " B" ‫(و‬B ' ! L7J " p (D) = = p (C ) = = =
Card Ω 12 Card Ω 12 6
card ( Ω ) = = 7 × 7 = 72 = 49 (1:‫ا اب‬
CardB 3× 3 9 GH‫وﻣ‬ E = A ‫ أي‬A ‫ ث‬74 ‫(د‬B ‫ ث ا‬7 ‫ ا‬-‫ ھ‬E
p (B) = == = (2
Card Ω 49 49
p(N ) =
CardN
==
4 × 4 16
= ( )
p ( E ) = p A = 1 − p ( A) = 1 −
1 5
=
6 6
Card Ω 7 × 7 49

A
4
7
‫و‬ C
4
7
‫ و‬4! : L ‫أ‬: 3‫ﻣ ل‬
‫ و‬4! = 4 × 3 × 2 ×1 = 24 :‫اب‬ ‫ا‬
7! 7! 7 × 6 × 5 × 4! 7 × 6 × 5
C 7 = 4!( 7 − 4 )! = 4!3! = 4!3! = 3! = 35
4

2
:‫ذ‬ ‫ا‬