Chapter I I I

World trade and

economic growth,
2020 -21

Trade and GDP in 2020 and early 2021 22

Merchandise trade volume 23

Commodity prices 26

Exchange rates 27

Merchandise and services trade values 28

Leading indicators of trade 31

Economic recovery from COVID-19 34

10
20
World merchandise trade volume and real
GDP fell sharply in the first half of 2020 as
a result of the COVID-19 pandemic before
rebounding in the second half. Consequently,
trade and output declined less than initially
expected for the year. The volume of
merchandise trade dropped by 5.3 per cent in
2020 while real GDP at market exchange rates
declined by 3.6 per cent.
The decline in merchandise trade in 2020 was
less severe than forecasters predicted for a
number of reasons. These included proactive
fiscal and monetary policies that boosted
incomes and consumption, an increase in
demand for technological innovation to facilitate
remote work, and trade policy restraint that kept
supply chains functioning.
Merchandise trade and commercial services
trade in current US dollar terms plunged in the
early stages of the pandemic. Merchandise trade
rebounded strongly in the second half of 2020
but services continued to be weighed down by
travel restrictions. The value of merchandise
exports fell by 8 per cent in 2020 to US$ 17.58
trillion while commercial services exports
dropped by 20 per cent to US$ 4.91 trillion.
The post-pandemic trade recovery is already
showing signs of divergence across countries
and regions. Merchandise export and import
volumes in the first quarter of 2021 rose to new
heights in Asia and reverted to pre-pandemic
levels in Europe and North America but lagged
behind in poorer, less industrialized regions,
such as Africa and the Middle East.
11
21
 World Trade Statistical Review 2021

Trade and GDP in 2020 and early 2021

The volume of world merchandise trade declined significantly in 2020, with only
the financial crisis of 2008-09 having seen a steeper decline. However, it could
have been even greater in view of the contraction in GDP.

Chart 3.1
World merchandise trade volume and real GDP growth, 2014-20
(Annual percentage change)

6
4.9

4
3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1
2.6
Annual percentage change

2.2 2.7
2 2.4
1.4

0.2
0

-2

-4 -3.6

-5.3
-6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Trade GDP Average trade growth 2010-19 Average GDP growth 2010-19

Sources: WTO Secretariat for trade, consensus estimates for GDP.

Note: GDP growth is calculated with market exchange rate weights.

• The volume of world merchandise trade declined by • The large decline in services trade is mostly due to travel
5.3 per cent in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and lockdowns, which prevented the delivery
severely jolted the global economy. This followed a sharp of services requiring physical proximity. Some income
decline in trade the previous year, with volume growth of not spent on services may have been diverted to goods,
just 0.2 per cent as trade tensions between leading nations supporting merchandise imports.
remained high.
• The 5.3 per cent decline in merchandise trade volume
• The decline in merchandise trade in 2020 was even in 2020 was accompanied by a 3.6 per cent contraction
larger when measured in nominal US dollar terms, in world real GDP at market exchange rates. The trade
with the value of exports falling by nearly 8 per cent decline was therefore 1.5 times larger than the decline in
to US$ 17.58 trillion. The dollar value of commercial output. This is smaller than in 2009 following the global
services exports declined even more, dropping by financial crisis, when trade volumes fell 12.6 per cent, six
20 per cent to US$ 4.91 trillion. times more than the 2.0 per cent slump in GDP.

22
 Chapter III: World trade and economic growth, 2020-21

Merchandise trade volume

The 2020 contraction in the volume of merchandise trade started in the first
quarter and accelerated in the second. The subsequent rebound in the third
and fourth quarters was strong enough to return merchandise trade to its pre-
pandemic level by the end of the year.

Chart 3.2
World merchandise trade volume, 2015Q1-2021Q1
(Volume index 2015 =100 and year-on-year percentage change)

120 10

5.4 5.4 5.5

115 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.3 5
3.7 3.6
2.5
1.9 2.8 1.9 1.8 1.8

Year-on-year percentage change

1.5 1.3 111.7
0.0
Volume index 2015=100

110 0
-2.0 111.0 0.4 -0.2
-0.7

-3.3
105 -5
-5.4

100 -10

95 -15.5 -15

93.7

90 -20
2019Q1

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1
2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q2

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1
Year-on-year % change (right axis) Index, 2015Q1 = 100 (left axis)

Sources: WTO Secretariat and UNCTAD.

• World merchandise trade volume fell by 2.0 per cent in the 2019. By comparison, merchandise trade took more
first quarter of 2020 compared with the previous quarter than two years to recover to its pre-crisis level after the
and a further 12.5 per cent in the second quarter. By the financial crisis.
end of the second quarter, merchandise trade was down
15.5 per cent compared to the same period in 2019. • Trade growth slowed to 2.1 per cent in the first quarter
of 2021 compared with the previous quarter while year-
• Merchandise trade jumped 11.4 per cent in the third on-year growth picked up to 4.3 per cent. Year-on-year
quarter of 2020 compared with the previous quarter and growth is expected to be very strong in the second
another 4.4 per cent in the final quarter, bringing the quarter of 2021, mostly due to the downturn in the second
volume of trade back to its level in the fourth quarter of quarter of 2020.

23
 World Trade Statistical Review 2021

The recovery of merchandise trade since the third quarter of 2020 has been
strong but uneven, with exports and imports growing faster in some regions
than in others.

Chart 3.3
Merchandise exports by region, 2015Q1-2021Q1
(Volume indices 2015Q1=100)

Exports
140

130

120
Volume indices 2015Q1=100

110

100

90

80

70
2019Q4

2019Q4

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3
2015Q1

2020Q4

2021Q1
2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2018Q3
2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

North America South America1 Europe CIS2 Africa Middle East Asia

1
Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.
2
Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States, including certain associate and former member States.
Sources: WTO and UNCTAD.

140

• 130
All regions recorded year-on-year declines in merchandise • All regions have seen merchandise exports and imports
trade volumes in the second quarter of 2020 except recover to varying degrees since trade bottomed out in
the Commonwealth of Independent States (including the second quarter of 2020. In the first quarter of 2021,
120
certain former and associate members), which saw a merchandise export volumes were up in Asia (21.0 per cent
Volume indices 2015Q1=100

2.8 per cent rise in its exports. North American exports year-on-year) and Europe (1.9 per cent). They were down
declined the most (-25.5 per cent), followed by Africa
110 slightly in South and Central America (-0.1 per cent) and
(-21.7 per cent), Europe (-20.4 per cent) and the Middle North America (-2.2 per cent). They were also down more
East (-19.7 per cent). Smaller declines were seen in substantially in Africa (-4.6 per cent), the Middle East
100
South and Central America (-9.0 per cent) and Asia (-8.4 per cent) and the Commonwealth of Independent
(-7.1 per cent). States (-13.9 per cent).
90

80

70
2015Q1

2016Q4
2015Q2

2015Q3

2018Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2
2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q3
2018Q1

2018Q2

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2019Q4

2019Q4

2019Q4

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

North America South America1 Europe CIS2 Africa Middle East Asia

24
Volume indice
100

Chapter III: World trade and economic growth, 2020-21

90

80

70

2018Q3
2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4
2018Q2

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2019Q4

2019Q4

2021Q1
Chart 3.4
Merchandise imports by region, 2015Q1-2021Q1
(Volume indices 2015Q1=100) South America1
North America Europe CIS2 Africa Middle East Asia

Imports

140

130

120
Volume indices 2015Q1=100

110

100

90

80

70
2015Q1

2020Q4

2021Q1
2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q3
2018Q1

2019Q4

2019Q4

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3
2018Q2

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

North America South America1 Europe CIS2 Africa Middle East Asia

1
Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.
2
Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States, including certain associate and former member States.
Sources: WTO and UNCTAD.

• All regions had large year-on-year import contractions for • Merchandise import volumes were up year-on-year in
merchandise trade volumes in the second quarter of 2020, all regions in the first quarter of 2021 except in Africa
including the Middle East (-20.1 per cent), Europe (-19.0 (-0.9 per cent) and the Middle East (-2.7 per cent). Overall,
per cent), South and Central America (-18.6 per cent), it appears that the trade recovery has been strongest in
North America (17.8 per cent), Africa (-16.0 per cent), the Asia and weakest in regions that rely on exports of
Commonwealth of Independent States (-11.1 per cent), and natural resources.
Asia (-7.0 per cent).

25
 World Trade Statistical Review 2021

Commodity prices

Prices of energy commodities fell sharply during the first wave of the pandemic
but have risen steadily since then.

Chart 3.5
Prices of primary commodities, January 2014 - May 2021
(US$ price indices, January 2014 =100)

160

140

120
US$ price indices, January 2014 =100

100

80

60

40

20

2020M01

2020M04

2021M01
2020M07
2015M01

2015M07
2015M04

2015M10

2019M01

2019M07
2016M01

2016M07

2018M01

2018M07
2017M01

2017M07

2019M04

2019M10
2014M01

2016M04

2016M10

2018M04

2018M10
2014M07

2017M04

2017M10
2014M04

2014M10

2021M04
2020M10
Food Agricultural raw materials Metals Fuels

Source: IMF primary commodity prices.

• Fuel prices fell by 60.1 per cent between January and April the summer. Successive waves of COVID-19 do
2020 as the pandemic resulted in a decline in domestic not appear to have had as strong an impact on fuel
and international travel. Smaller declines over the same prices. Other commodity prices have also risen since
period were recorded for other commodities, such as food April 2020, raising concerns about a build-up in
(-10 per cent), agricultural raw materials (-8 per cent) and inflationary pressures.
metals (1 per cent).
• In May 2021, fuel prices were up 194 per cent year-on-year.
• Fuel prices rose steadily after April 2020 as economic Prices were also up 54 per cent for metals, 45 per cent for
growth picked up and travel restrictions were eased in food and 26 per cent for agricultural raw materials.

26
 Chapter III: World trade and economic growth, 2020-21

Exchange rates

The US dollar appreciated sharply early in the pandemic but has fallen in value
against other currencies since its peak in April 2020.

Chart 3.6
Exchange rate indices for selected economies, January 2014 – May 2021 a
(Index, January 2014 =100)

140

130

120
Index, January 2014 =100

110

100

90

80
01-2017
01-2014

04-2014

07-2014

10-2014

01-2015

04-2015

07-2015

10-2015

01-2016

04-2016

07-2016

10-2016

04-2017

07-2017

10-2017

01-2018

04-2018

07-2018

10-2018

01-2019

04-2019

07-2019

10-2019

01-2020

04-2020

07-2020

10-2020

01-2021

04-2021
United States Japan China Euro area United Kingdom

a)
Nominal effective exchange rate indices against a broad basket of currencies.
Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

• The US dollar appreciated 7 per cent on average against • The dollar fell in value by 9 per cent between April and
currencies of trading partners between January and December 2020 as global economic growth picked up
April 2020, reflecting the traditional safe-haven status of and expansionary monetary and fiscal policy put downward
the currency. pressure on the currency. The nominal effective exchange
rate of the US dollar was relatively stable between January
• The appreciation of the dollar probably contributed to the and May 2021.
fall in fuel prices denominated in dollars over the same
period since these variables tend to move in opposite • Exchange rates of other major currencies fluctuated less
directions. However, the appreciation would only account than the dollar exchange rate during the pandemic.
for a small fraction of the 60 per cent drop in fuel prices
over the same period.

27
 World Trade Statistical Review 2021

Merchandise and services trade values

The sharp decline and subsequent recovery of merchandise trade in 2020 was
mostly due to trade in manufactured goods.

Chart 3.7
Growth in world merchandise trade by sector, 2020Q1-2021Q1
(Year-on-year percentage change in US$ values)

20

16
14

11
10 9

6 6

2 2
0
0

-3
Year-on-year % change in US$ values

-5 -5
-6 -6
-7
-10

-18
-20 -19
-21

-26

-30

-40

-43

-50

Total merchandise Agricultural products Fuels and mining products Manufactures

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1

Sources: WTO estimates and UNCTAD.

• The US dollar value of world trade in manufactured goods up substantially (+11 per cent). The lower decline for
was down 18 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter agricultural products trade in the second quarter is mostly
of 2020 but by the first quarter of 2021 trade had risen due to the ongoing need for vital food supplies.
by 16 per cent above its level from the same period the
previous year. • The sharp 43 per cent decline in fuels and mining products
trade in the second quarter of 2020 and the partial
• The growth rates are similar to those for total merchandise recovery since then reflect both falling prices and the
trade since manufactured goods account for the vast availability of reduced quantities.
majority of this trade (73 per cent in 2020).
• Most types of manufactured goods saw
• Trade in agricultural products declined less than trade significant gains in the second half of 2020,
in manufactured goods during the second quarter of notably textiles, pharmaceuticals, computers and
2020 (-5 per cent) and by the first quarter of 2021 it was telecommunications equipment.

28
 Chapter III: World trade and economic growth, 2020-21

Export revenues fell most in oil-exporting regions during the pandemic but by
the start of 2021 all regions were recording year-on-year growth.

Chart 3.8
Growth of merchandise trade by region, 2020Q1 - 2021Q1
(Year-on-year percentage change in US$ values)

30
28

20

16

13 13

10 9
8

5
4
Year-on-year % change in US$ values

3
2

-2
-3 -3 -3
-4
-5
-7 -7 -7
-10 -9
-10
-11

-16 -16

-20 -19
-21 -21
-23

-30

-32

-40 -39

World North America South America1 Europe Asia Other regions2

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1

1
Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.
2
“Other regions” comprise Africa, Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States, including certain associate and former member states.
Sources: WTO and UNCTAD.

• Merchandise exports of Asia in current US dollar terms and Central America, exports were down 19 per cent in the
declined by 10 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter second quarter of 2020 but up strongly (+13 per cent) in
of 2020 but by the first quarter of 2021 they were up 28 the first quarter of 2021.
per cent. In contrast, Europe recorded a larger decline in
the second quarter of 2020 (23 per cent) and a smaller • Merchandise exports of other regions, including Africa,
increase in the first quarter of 2021 (13 per cent). the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent
States, were collectively down 39 per cent in the second
• North America’s merchandise exports were down heavily in quarter of 2020, reflecting a persistent reduction in fuel
the second quarter of 2020 (32 per cent) and were only up consumption and a fall in prices during the pandemic but
slightly (+4 per cent) in the first quarter of 2021. In South by the first quarter of 2021 exports were up 8 per cent.

29
World Trade Statistical Review 2021

Services trade recovered only partially in the second half of 2020, weighed
down by COVID-19-related travel restrictions.

Chart 3.9
Growth in the value of world commercial services trade by category, 2020Q1-2021Q1
(Year-on-year percentage change)

10
6

1 2
0 0

-2 -3
-6 -6 -6 -6
-10 -9 -9

-14 -14
-17
-20
-20
-23 -23
-25
-30 -29
-30
Year on year % change

-40

-50

-60
-62

-70 -68 -68

-80
-81

-90

Commercial services Transport Travel Other commercial services Goods-related services

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1

Sources: WTO-UNCTAD-ITC estimates.

Note: Trade as average of exports and imports

• Services trade remained depressed in the first quarter of passenger flights, which were curtailed early in the
2021 although the category of “other commercial services” pandemic. However, maritime transport held up relatively
- including financial services, business services and well, with a year-on-year decline in container throughput of
charges for the use of intellectual property - increased around 7 per cent in Q2 of 2020. The sector recovered its
by 6 per cent. year-on-year level in Q1 2021.

• The biggest source of the decline was travel, which fell • Other commercial services, which includes financial
by 81 per cent in the second quarter. It was still down 62 and other business services, avoided large declines
per cent in Q1 2021, weighed down by pandemic related during the pandemic (down just 6 per cent in Q2 of
restrictions for cross-border movement of people. 2020) due to the widespread adoption of technologies
allowing remote work. These services sectors were
• Transport also experienced a severe decline (-29 per cent the only ones having year-on-year positive growth since
in Q2 2020) due mostly to the reduction in international Q4 2020.

30
 Chapter III: World trade and economic growth, 2020-21

Leading indicators of trade

Leading indicators of trade provide clues about the strength of the global
economy in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These data continue to
point to a strong but uneven recovery.

Chart 3.10
Global PMI new export orders indices, January 2010 - May 2021
(Index, base = 50)

60

50
Index, base=50

40

30

20
Jan 2008

Jul 2008

Jan 2009

Jul 2009

Jan 2010

Jul 2010

Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Jan 2013

Jul 2013

Jan 2014

Jul 2014

Jan 2015

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jan 2017

Jul 2017

Jan 2018

Jul 2018

Jan 2019

Jul 2019

Jan 2020

Jul 2020

Jan 2021

Jul 2021
Jan 2016

Manufacturing Services

Source: IHS Markit.

Note: Values greater than 50 indicate expansion while values less than 50 denote contraction. No available data for services before September 2014.

• Purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) showed new for manufacturing export orders, reflecting the weaker state
export orders of manufacturers and services providers of global services trade.
falling sharply early in the pandemic but rebounding
strongly afterwards. • As of May 2021, the manufacturing index continued to
indicate a strong recovery in goods trade, with a value
• New export orders of services fell to 21.8 in April 2020 of 54.9. The services index suggested weaker growth in
while new export orders of manufacturing bottomed services trade, with a value of 51.0.
out at 27.1.

• Services export orders surpassed the baseline value of 50

for the index in April 2021 compared with September 2020

31
 World Trade Statistical Review 2021

Container shipping fell in 2020 as the pandemic disrupted the global economy
but throughput quickly returned to and surpassed pre-pandemic levels.

Chart 3.11
Global container throughput, January 2007 - April 2021
(seasonally-adjusted index, 2015 =100)

130

120

110
Seasonally adjusted index, 2015=100

100

90

80

70

60
Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Jul-21
Seasonally adjusted index Trend

Source: Institute for Shipping Economics and Logistics.

• Container throughput of major ports dropped by continued shipments of goods from Asia to the rest of
7 per cent between January and May 2020 as the the world.
pandemic hit international trade flows, according to the
Institute for Shipping Economics and Logistics. However, • Throughput continued to increase in the first months of
by July the index had already risen above its level at the 2021. Average monthly growth between January and April
start of the year. was 0.7 per cent, which is equivalent to an annualized rate
of 8.8 per cent.
• For the whole of 2020, throughput was only down 1.3 per
cent, reflecting the relative strength of goods trade and

32
 Chapter III: World trade and economic growth, 2020-21

International commercial flights slumped in 2020 as travel restrictions

were imposed to slow the spread of COVID-19. In August 2020 the number
of flights returned to just over half their level before the pandemic, but more
widespread vaccination is required to increase passenger numbers and to
achieve full recovery.

Chart 3.12
International commercial flights per day, 1 January 2020 - 30 May 2021
(Number of flights)

60,000

50,000

40,000
Number of flights

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
01-Jan-20

15-Jan-20

29-Jan-20

12-Feb-20

26-Feb-20

11-Mar-20

05-May-21
25-Mar-20

08-Apr-20

22-Apr-20

06-May-20

17-Jun-20
20-May-20

03-Jun-20

01-Jul-20

15-Jul-20

29-Jul-20

12-Aug-20

26-Aug-20

09-Sep-20

23-Sep-20

07-Oct-20

21-Oct-20

04-Nov-20

18-Nov-20

02-Dec-20

16-Dec-20

30-Dec-20

13-Jan-21

27-Jan-21

10-Fen-21

24-Fen-21

10-Mar-21

24-Mar-21

07-Apr-21

21-Apr-21

19-May-21
7-day moving average Number of flights

Source: Martin Strohmeier, et.al, “Crowdsourced air traffic data from the OpenSky Network 2019–2020”, Earth System Science Data 13(2), 2021.

• International commercial flights per day fell to less than • As of 30 May 2021, the number of daily flights remained
10,000 in mid-April 2020, a decline of around 80 per cent below 30,000. Increased international travel will depend to
from the start of the year. Many flights were devoted to a large extent on the success of vaccination programmes.
cargo only as passenger flights were suspended.

• From mid-April 2020 until the end of the year, flights per
day averaged 27,000, around 55 per cent of the level in
January 2020.

33
World Trade Statistical Review 2021

Economic recovery from COVID-19

Since the second half of 2020, WTO economists have predicted a strong
rebound in world trade, with outcomes heavily dependent on GDP growth and
the evolution of the pandemic. Growth in 2021 could exceed expectations if
universal access to vaccines is achieved or fall short if vaccination efforts falter.

Chart 3.13
Real GDP growth of selected economies, 2020Q1 – 2021Q1
(Quarter-on-quarter percentage change)

25
23.1

20

15
13.7
11.7 11.6

10 9.3
7.5 7.8

5.3
5
3.2 3.0 2.6
Quarter-on-quarter % change

2.8
2.1
1.1 1.6 1.2
0.6 0.8 0.6
1.4 1.1
-0.1
0
-0.4 -0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.4
-1.3 -1.0
-2.2 -2.6
-3.4
-5

-8.1
-10 -9.0 -9.2 -9.7
-11.1

-15
-16.6

-20

-25
-25.9

-30
United European Japan Brazil Russian India China South
States Union Federation Africa

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1

Source: OECD National Accounts.

• GDP growth slowed in major economies in the first quarter • China’s economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter
of 2021 and is likely to remain slow in the second and of 2021. This is equivalent to 2.4 per cent on an annualized
third quarters as new waves of infection prompted new basis. Excluding the sharp contraction in the first quarter of
lockdowns and travel restrictions. 2020 that coincided with the emergence of COVID-19, this
is the weakest quarterly result for China since the country
• GDP growth in the United States rose to 1.6 per cent in the started reporting quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in 2011.
first quarter of 2021 compared with the previous quarter.
This is equivalent to around 6.5 per cent on an annualized
basis. Meanwhile, EU GDP contracted by 0.1 per cent in
the first quarter as the virus resurged in the region.

34
 Chapter III: World trade and economic growth, 2020-21

Despite the strong recovery in merchandise trade in value terms in the

first quarter of 2021, exports of many economies remained below their pre-
pandemic peaks.

Chart 3.14
Cumulative merchandise exports of selected economies, January-April 2021
(Percentage change compared to January-April 2019)

Bolivia, Plurinational state of

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Russian Federation
Hong Kong, China

North Macedonia

United Kingdom
European Union
Chinese Taipei

Korea, Rep. of

United States
New Zealand
Cote d'Ivoire

Montenegro
Switzerland

Kazakhstan
El Salvador
Costa Rica

Philippines
Guatemala

Singapore

Colombia
Indonesia

Argentina

Sri Lanka
Paraguay

Mauritius
Viet Nam

Morocco
Australia
Malaysia

Thailand
Ecuador

Uruguay

Namibia
Ethiopia

Canada
Belarus

Norway
Ukraine
Zambia

Albania

Iceland
Mexico
Tunisia
Ghana

Turkey

Kenya

Belize
China

Japan
Egypt

Brazil

Israel
Chile

India
Peru

Iran
40
38

35
33
% change compared to January-April 2019

30
32
31
31
29

25
26
24
23
23

20
21
21
19
19
19
18
18
18
18

15
17
17
16
16
15
15
14

10
12
12
11
10
10

9
9

9
8
8
5

3
3
6
6
6
6
5

4
4

1
0
-5

-3
-3

-8
-8
-10
-6
-6
-10

-15
-17
-15

-22
-20

-26
-25
-30

Sources: WTO and UNCTAD.

Note: Colombia, Egypt, Tunisia and Ukraine refer to January - March 2021

• Merchandise exports of the United States increased by • Some African countries, such as Zambia (+38 per cent),
only 1 per cent between January and April 2021 compared benefitted from improved terms of trade in January-April
with the same period in 2019 while those of the European 2021 as metals prices rose nearly 50 per cent whereas
Union rose by 10 per cent. others, such as Namibia (-17 per cent), did not.

• Russia’s merchandise exports remained below their level of

two years ago (-8 per cent) while those of China were up
sharply (+31 per cent).

35
World Trade Statistical Review 2021

Regional growth in merchandise trade volume has varied much more than it
did before the pandemic, with Asia exceeding growth in other regions for both
exports and imports.

Chart 3.15
Change in merchandise trade volume by region, 2021Q1
(Percentage change compared to 2019Q1)

Exports
EXPORTS Imports
IMPORTS

Middle East -19.9 Middle East -8.2

CIS 2 -14.2 Europe -5.1

Africa -11.2 Africa -3.5

South America1 -7.7 World 1.7

North America -3.3 North America 2.6

Europe -2.4 South America1 4.8

World 1.7 CIS 2 10

Asia 15.4 Asia 10

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

% change in volume % change in volume

1
Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.
2
Refers to the Commonwealth of Independent States, including certain former and associate member states.
Source: WTO.

• Asian merchandise export volumes were up 15 per cent
in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period
in 2019 while exports of all other regions were down
compared to two years ago.
• Merchandise exports of oil-producing regions were down
the most in 2021 due to reduced demand for fuels as a
result of COVID-19-related travel restrictions.
• Asia also led other regions in merchandise imports, which
were up 10 per cent for the year-to-date in 2021 compared
to 2019.
• The weakness of Europe’s year-on-year growth in
merchandise imports was partly due to the resurgence
of COVID-19 in the first quarter of 2021.

36
 Chapter III: World trade and economic growth, 2020-21

Regional disparities in nominal dollar-denominated merchandise growth in

2021 were similar to those in volume terms.

Chart 3.16
Change in merchandise trade values by region, 2021Q1
(Percentage change in US dollar values compared to 2019Q1)

Exports
30

20
19%
% change in US dollar values

10
9% 7%
5%
2% 3%

-10%
-10
-16%

-20

-30
World Middle East CIS1 North America Africa South America2 Europe Asia

Imports
30

20
14%
12%
% change in US dollar values

10
5% 5% 6%
8%
2%
0
-2%

-10%
-10

-20

-30
World Middle East CIS1 North America Africa South America2 Europe Asia

1
Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.
2
Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States, including certain former and associate member States.
Sources: WTO-UNCTAD.

• The US dollar value of world merchandise trade was up
9 per cent for exports and 8 per cent for imports in the first
quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2019.
• Asia’s merchandise export and import values grew more
than for all other regions over the last two years.
• Africa’s merchandise export growth in value terms was
stronger than in volume terms because of improved terms
of trade. Metals prices were up nearly 50 per cent in the
first quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2019.

37
 World Trade Statistical Review 2021

Services exports remained depressed in many economies in the first four

months of 2021. China was the major exception, with exports up strongly
compared to the previous year.

Chart 3.17
Cumulative commercial services exports of selected economies, January-April 2021
(Percentage change compared to January-April 2019)

Russian Federation
Korea, Republic of

United Kingdom

Slovak Republic
Czech Republic

United States
Luxembourg
Netherlands

Philippines
Mongolia

Germany

Morocco
Denmark
Lithuania

Romania

Australia
Tanzania

Hungary
Pakistan

Slovenia

Portugal
Bulgaria
Sweden
Belgium

Canada

Uganda
Ukraine

Greece
Estonia

Finland
Poland

France
Serbia

Turkey
China

Latvia

Japan
Brazil
Malta
India

Italy
40

30
% change compared to January-April 2019

25

20
18
15

10
12
10
9
8
6
6

3
2
2
4

0
-1

-5
-2
-3

-7
-8
-8
-9
-9
-9
-11
-10

-14
-14
-15
-16
-16
-19
-22
-22
-20

-23
-24
-25
-27
-29
-32
-30

-35
-36
-40

Source: WTO estimates.

Note: Mongolia, Philippines, Portugal and Tanzania refer to January-March.

• China’s cumulative exports of commercial services • Other major economies suffered double-digit declines,
between January and April 2021 were up 25 per cent including the United States (-19 per cent), Italy (-25 per
compared with the same period in 2019, more than any cent) and Australia (-36 per cent).
other major economy.

• India’s exports were also up 3 per cent over the same

period, while those of Germany, France and the
United Kingdom were down 5 per cent, 7 per cent,
and 9 per cent, respectively.

38
 Chapter III: World trade and economic growth, 2020-21

Europe’s exports and imports of commercial services were down less than
other regions in the first quarter of 2021 but growth for all regions remained
deeply depressed compared to the pre-pandemic period.

Chart 3.18
Change in commercial services trade values by region, 2021Q1
(Percentage change in US dollar values compared to 2019Q1)

Exports
10

-10
% change

-15%

-19%
-20%
-20 -21%
-23%

-27%

-30
-35%
-37%

-40
World Africa South America1 CIS2 North America Middle East Asia Europe

Imports
10

-10
-13%
% change

-18%
-19%
-20 -22% -22%
-24%

-30 -31%
-33%

-40
World South America1 CIS2 Middle East North America Asia Africa Europe

1
Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean.
2
Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States, including certain former and associate member States.
Sources: WTO-UNCTAD-ITC estimates.

• World commercial services trade was down 19 per cent for • Africa and South America and Central America, including
exports and 18 per cent for imports in the first quarter of the Caribbean, recorded the biggest declines in exports
2021 compared to the same period in 2019. of commercial services due to continuing COVID-19
restrictions hampering travel exports.
• Europe’s exports and imports of commercial services were
down less than the world average in the first quarter of
2021, 15 per cent and 13 per cent respectively, while all
other regions were down by more than the world average.

39