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He quotes from the conclusion, that is a review of the prior chapters. That style for me is a one of
the main reasons I love this podcast so much and I know that nonsense from any guest of any
political persuasion would get the same non response. And it can get us a lot more quickly by some
of these other ways. He fixes on compelling details: no sooner had the Soviets grabbed Buchenwald
compared to what they tried on the extender to accommodate their very own prisoners. For example,
we will spend a lot of time in the coming weeks and months and years talking about climate change
as if that is really the only disaster we need to worry about. EPI's results are confirmed by surveys
that find lack of customer demand to be the main hindrance to business growth and employment. If
I’m getting 66% right, I’m doing really, really well. That’s part of it. I think it’s also about
understanding the changing structure of the public sphere, broadly defined, or the changing structure
of the global economy. He pointed out something that's been evident since the Weiss article shook up
progressives—that the Left’s next culture war tactic will be to associate as many unsavory types as
possible with the Intellectual Dark Web in order to discredit it, just as it's done with a number of its
enemies by trying to place them in the alt-right. If you’re in Firefox click “disable on
independent.co.united kingdom “. He argues that a networked world is a dangerous world, in that it
allows movements and societies to advance in unexpected ways. He is another Senior Fellow in the
Hoover Institution, Stanford College, along with a Visiting Professor at Tsinghua College, Beijing. Is
it possible to learn from the successes and failures of past historians. Millions rely on Vox’s clear,
high-quality journalism to understand the forces shaping today’s world. And he was too polite to say
it out loud, but he’s like, this proposed EU constitution, hundreds of pages, and he’s like, here’s our
constitution, that’s worked pretty well, it’s a couple of pages long, because it doesn’t try to pretend
to anticipate every single possible thing, and you have to allow for the system to breathe a little bit.
Ferguson found it ironic, given that he thought he'd probably written more history books than the
entire department combined. A conjecture is really a statement of the items the long run will
probably be. With regards to the British and French cases, I’m still convinced that they are right. In
the end, as Stalin discovered, the Fhrer couldn’t be reliable. I was highly amused to find as I was
researching Doom just how many pandemic preparedness reports the American bureaucracy had
produced in the years prior to 2020. He thinks about big questions of global history, Western culture
especially, but also the world more broadly, and what I didn’t know before inviting him on the
podcast is he comes from a family of physicists and he tends to think about history in terms of
networks and complexity theory. Of course, the communist parties will always deal with pollution,
it’s just that we’ve never seen it done this on this massive scale before. Is there any hope for thinking
that in the modern networked world, a large-scale autocracy like that is less stable than it might have
been. I worry that if we convince ourselves that the key thing for us to do between now and the next
20 years is radically to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and if we do that, we’ll be fine, then we are,
I think, engaging in a kind of magical thinking. To ensure they are check this out essential point, the
Allies compensated an astounding cost in manpower as well as in materiel, indeed a greater cost than
was compensated by Germany, however the Allies finally drove the purpose home. His chapters on
morale and also the problem of surrendering are first-rate his account from the myths of war
enthusiasm instructions respect and the management of the press and propaganda go well past
previous (and mistaken) accounts of propagandists as puppeteers and also the studying public as
puppets. In the end, I would bet that neither Xi Jinping nor Biden is going to risk a major war over
an issue as obscure as Taiwan’s status. I would also say that his program of thinking about the
probabilities of various futures is very worthwhile. Accused of being an apologist for colonialism, he
pointed at the lack of nuance in such a reading and asked critics to compare the British Empire to its
German and Japanese alternatives. If you recognize that our institutions have a tendency to become
sclerotic and bureaucratic, and that networks morph into rigid hierarchies, to put it really crudely, and
that this goes on in a world which is subject to pretty randomly distributed disasters of various
forms, you can see why we get into difficulties, because we don’t really think about the world in a
realistic way.
Is there some hope for the people of China to shrug off the autocracy that is in charge of them.
According to an Economic Policy Institute (EPI) analysis, during the Obama presidency, businesses
have reported poor sales as the single most important problem facing their business, while a smaller
percentage of businesses named regulations as their most important issue. In my own country, there
was constitutional discrimination against indigenous peoples until the 1960s and the government was
still controlling peoples’ finances and movements just 50 years ago. Maybe we could bring it down
to earth a little bit, if you want to say more about Paul Revere, it’s a provocative claim to say that
Paul Revere played just as big a role in the American Revolution as George Washington did. I look
forward to listening to the speech, as it sounds fascinating. So what’s interesting about the
networked approach to revolution is that you begin to understand why some revolutions succeed and
others fail. So at all costs, if we want to avoid disaster, we should want to avoid totalitarianism.
Given that it’s wildly inappropriate for professors to be snooping on undergraduates in an attempt to
intimidate them politically, Ferguson has been forced to resign from his post running the Cardinal
Conversations initiative (but he remains a senior fellow at Hoover). But it’s not happened; on the
contrary, they’ve turned the clock back ideologically, universities are no longer places one can speak
freely, and the party’s power has tightened in a way that is really quite quite frightening. The
pandemic has illustrated the vulnerabilities of such a world, but I was inclined to argue in The
Square and the Tower that there were other ways in which a hyper-connected world could be
unstable. The conclusion therefore is that western countries need to consume less stuff along with all
the other CO2 reduction measures they need to implement. There’s nothing unprecedented even
about quarantines and lockdowns. We need to start learning lessons right now, rather than to wait for
some quite possibly illusory closure. His many prizes and awards range from the Benjamin Franklin
Prize for Public Service (2010), the Hayek Prize for Lifetime Achievement (2012) and also the
Ludwig Erhard Prize for Economic Journalism (2013). In any case, I think it’s good to remind
readers that when we write history long after an event, we have an illusory sense of its deterministic
nature. For example, as an Amazon Associate, C-SPAN earns money from your qualifying purchases.
Chip Roy that the border bill fiasco makes Republicans “look like the Keystone Cops”. So that seems
to suggest, okay, we should worry a little bit more about various kinds of existential threats to give
ourselves the nimble strategic ability to respond when they happen. We hear what life is like on the
front line from Sukdev Johal of Royal Holloway's management school. Some would say he spoke so
well in spite of not using PowerPoint. His chapters on morale and also the problem of surrendering
are first-rate his account from the myths of war enthusiasm instructions respect and the management
of the press and propaganda go well past previous (and mistaken) accounts of propagandists as
puppeteers and also the studying public as puppets. Niall Ferguson taken advantage of the study of
numerous assistants, because he acknowledges but aside from a brief listing of archives along with a
lengthy bibliography, he provides no references. The first thing to stress is that totalitarian regimes
caused the biggest disasters in history, not just the Holocaust, but the Holodomor in Ukraine, the
terrible disasters that Mao inflicted in China, particularly the Great Leap Forward. In 2001, following
a year like a Houblon-Norman Fellow in the Bank of England, he printed The Money Nexus: Money
and Power nowadays, 1700-2000. Even for the 16th century, this is possible, and there’s some
terrific work that I cite showing that one reason the Reformation succeeded was that the network
was sufficiently distributed that you couldn’t actually kill it by making martyrs of the apparent
leaders, because the network would survive the removal of key nodes. It had been the antithesis
from the erotic instinct “to save and unify”. And I learnt a lot from those people who’d done that
kind of work, so this was a work of synthesis, supposed to kind of show that there was a general
approach that one could take and it was applicable pretty much to any historical problem. When you
think about a pandemic, don’t think of one curve that you have to flatten, there will be multiple
waves, that’s what to expect. That’s the reason German leaders finally requested Woodrow Wilson to
broker an Armistice, even in the cost from the Kaiser’s abdication. I think the key problem is that as
the growth rate slows for demographic reasons and because of the excessive debt burden, the regime
will more and more be inclined to rely on nationalism to maintain its legitimacy.
When left-wing students protest, the right claims the mantle of defending free speech — when what
they’re actually doing is opening the door to overtly offensive discourse. Some critics have taken you
to task for letting leaders at the top, such as Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, off a bit too easily.
So Niall Ferguson, thanks very much for being on the Mindscape Podcast. Ferguson was one of the
faculty leaders of Cardinal Conversations, a Stanford program run by the conservative Hoover
Institution that aims to bring speakers to the university who would “air contested issues on our
campus.” The program’s speaker slate leaned right; recent events featured race-and-IQ theorist
Charles Murray, tech mogul Peter Thiel, and Christina Hoff Sommers, a prominent critic of modern
feminism. And that just bores me, to me that’s utterly uninteresting, going back in the past and
condemning slavery, I find that a sterile use of time. This can be a effective argument, and something
which needs a considered answer well past the scope of the review. Accused of being an apologist
for colonialism, he pointed at the lack of nuance in such a reading and asked critics to compare the
British Empire to its German and Japanese alternatives. Much of what happened in the spring of
2020 was very disruptive economically without being very effective in terms of public health. One of
our previous guests here on Mindscape was Steven Strogatz, who did the early work on small world
networks, and there was his name right on page 30 or something like that in your book. Some of
these were clearly necessary after the virus had spread widely. The idea ultimately that you can build
a surveillance state on the internet using a combination of human and AI censorship, that you could
make that work, I can’t in my heart of hearts believe it. His many prizes and awards range from the
Benjamin Franklin Prize for Public Service (2010), the Hayek Prize for Lifetime Achievement (2012)
and also the Ludwig Erhard Prize for Economic Journalism (2013). He campaigned with a callous
disregard for the health of those around him.” But if we tell ourselves that it was all his fault that
600,000 Americans died prematurely, we are not going to learn the right lessons at all. While that
should vindicate your argument that forecasts of US doom are exaggerated, at the same time, is it
still feeding the risk of a hot war. As is customary and almost a must in the Anglo-Saxon world. This
is a very recent book that he wrote during the current and still ongoing global pandemic about
COVID-19, all the ways in which a complex political system can try to deal with a crisis, a
catastrophe. I take from that that it is better to be generally paranoid, which I think you have to be in
Taiwan for obvious reasons, and in South Korea, than it is to be very specifically prepared. Millions
rely on Vox’s clear, high-quality journalism to understand the forces shaping today’s world. So let me
do my last little bit of pushing back here against this idea, because the main distinction you draw in
the book is between networks, by which as you said, you mean more distributed networks versus
hierarchies, and you make the point the hierarchies keep records so later historians tend to pay
attention to them. But the more the rest of the world adopts these concepts, the less the West
dominates it. It had been the antithesis from the erotic instinct “to save and unify”. He then should
think about the counterfactual their own position implies: that enlistment could have been just like
full of August and September 1914 if unemployment have been unsusceptible to the outbreak of war.
I found it odd that people struggled so hard to think about an emergency last year, that in an
emergency, you temporarily have to give up certain freedoms. That didn’t really puzzle our
grandparents and great-grandparents in time of war, but we’ve definitely lost that, that notion that
you have a temporary suspension of freedom in time of emergency. Is there any hope for thinking
that in the modern networked world, a large-scale autocracy like that is less stable than it might have
been. Certainly one of my core arguments is the fact that Britain must have remained from ww 1. We
have to recognize that is the pathology, because it will be true whatever the disaster, that’s my kind
of general takeaway. Same goes for the Mafia, very hard to write the history of organized crime, they
don’t really have a Mafia archive. With regards to the British and French cases, I’m still convinced
that they are right. The worldwide bestseller, The Ascent of cash: An Economic History around the
globe, adopted in 2008 it too would be a PBS series, winning the Worldwide Emmy award for the
best Documentary, along with the Handelszeitung Financial aspects Book Prize. But do we not read
ancient cyclical theories too literally in dismissing the idea of cycles of history.
Thus, the truly amazing War, Ferguson concludes, is less an emergency as “the finest error of
contemporary history” (p. 462). I found it extraordinary illuminating to rethink, for example, the
Reformation as an assault on a hierarchical structure of the Roman Catholic Church by a network of
reforming ministers led by Luther, but not really led by him, perhaps he was the catalyst, but the
network was not really one that he lead. Ferguson told Rubin at the end of their talk that he picks up
his phone in the morning wondering if war’s broken out, if there's been a “palace coup,” or if his
reputation’s been destroyed overnight. Within my summary of Virtual History Used to do my favorite
to counter the familiar E. H. Carr-type arguments against counterfactuals. The Taiwanese have
understood, I think, partly with the leadership of Audrey Tang, their Technology Minister, that you
must use technology in ways that empower citizens, not that empower the state. But the mistakes
that cost the most deaths were not made by Trump but by the public health bureaucracy: example,
the CDC’s failure to ramp up testing last year, the absence of an effective contact tracing app, the
failure to protect the people in elderly care homes. For the reason that conflict, 4 million men in
uniform died from all of these three countries alone. In an email correspondence with Media Matters,
James Goodwin, a policy analyst at the Center for Progressive Reform, noted that CEI's focus on the
pages in the Federal Register overstates regulatory burden. That isn’t to say those injustices are
irrelevant, but I do agree there is far too much emphasis on squabbling about identity in modern
academic and popular history and not enough overarching attempts at learning bigger lessons. His
descriptions of atrocities will purge readers with pity and terror. One additional comment about Allan
Pease’s speech: It seemed to me that the person he asked to come to the stage wasn’t made very
comfortable. We talk about global culture as a complex system, and what it means for our ability to
respond to crisis. Because of this alone, I still believe (pace Ferguson) the Great War wasn’t a
mistake, but instead the central tragedy that set the 20th century moving. It will help to construct our
worldwide editorial team, from war correspondents to investigative reporters, commentators to
critics. You can graph networks, if you have enough information about the relationships between the
people in them, the edges between the nodes. So I wanted to write a general theory of disaster so
that I could think simultaneously about pandemics and wars and financial crises and earthquakes and
volcanic eruptions, because they are so much of what we call history. I mean, how, given that there
was a network of people talking to each other in the Reformation, how do we figure out what the
degree of connectivity of a typical node was. Much of what happened in the spring of 2020 was very
disruptive economically without being very effective in terms of public health. We can generalize,
I’m sure we could do it somehow. It’s a big worry. I think it’s a huge worry, but like you said, it’s
gradual, we can sort of plot it, we’re in the middle of it, it’s going to take decades to progress to
wherever it goes, whether we do something about it or not, whereas things like the pandemic, the
financial crisis, you brought up asteroids before, solar flares are my favorite example of something
you just don’t think about at all that could wreak havoc on our entire world. You know, visions of
the apocalypse have been a feature of human life since the earliest recorded times. The important
goal of policy should have been to prevent large indoor gatherings and to protect the elderly
population from exposure to infection. Before coming to Vox in 2014, he edited TP Ideas, a section
of Think Progress devoted to the ideas shaping our political world. Again, his counterfactual is one
which lacks plausibility. On-page 169, he argues that German war aims without British entry in to the
war could have been less grandiose compared to what they quickly grew to become. I think that we
made a mistake in the history of our discipline, we didn’t create a kind of department of applied
history, we should have done, so that people like me could go off and try to do a kind of history that
would be designed to deal with contemporary problems. The German army was simply better at
defensive warfare under these conditions. The chairman of the OBR Sir Alan Budd faced the
Treasury select committee this week where he admitted naivety - but no political interference. I had
a similar encounter years ago, 20 years ago, writing the history of the Rothschild family, who feature
in any number of conspiracy theories, but when you look carefully into their archives, there was a
tremendously powerful network of mostly Jewish financial families and institutions that was crucial
to the evolution of 19th century financial capitalism. So I worry that we are unwittingly making the
same mistake of thinking a great deal about one scenario, which is the sort of worst case climate
change scenario.
It may be temporarily disabled by clicking the “shield” icon within the address bar. It was the British
army that was actually held back by the waiting for orders mentality. A projection is just the
happening of assumptions within this sense all projections are correct, whether or not the
assumptions which they’re based are bizarre. Something like the global pandemic is an example, but
there are many other examples, from earthquakes to wars, famines and so forth, and it matters how
you organize your society. So I think the Chinese ultimately, if they end up on a collision course, will
not win, but it’s a messy prospect, and I hope we can find a way of avoiding this. The worldwide
bestseller, The Ascent of cash: An Economic History around the globe, adopted in 2008 it too would
be a PBS series, winning the Worldwide Emmy award for the best Documentary, along with the
Handelszeitung Financial aspects Book Prize. We have to recognize that is the pathology, because it
will be true whatever the disaster, that’s my kind of general takeaway. That probably requires a
reassessment of the way in which we teach public servants, because we definitely create a legalistic
mentality that our law schools have a lot of answer for. And between conversations with him,
readings of people like Steven Strogatz, getting to know Nicholas Christakis, I was a kind of
autodidact network scientist. So what do we learn by throwing the word network in there, is there a
particular kind of insight or is there a particular kind of quantitative way of thinking about it.
Finallly, Niall Ferguson, author of a new biography of Siegmund Warburg tells us that modern
bankers could learn a thing or two from an old-fashioned City gent with wide-ranging tastes in
philosophy and literature and a robust moral compass. According to our world in data China’s per
capita CO2 emmisions are less than half than those of the United States and when adjusted for trade,
China’s emissions per capita is 2.8 times less that the corresponding United stated per capita
emissions. I don’t seek you people out, you just sort of naturally appear on the podcast. Do historians
have something extra to offer when we think about current events. After all, it’s very easy to say, and
I’ve heard it said, look how well the Chinese handled this, and they were able to handle it so well
because they have unprecedented levels of surveillance and social control. So I worry that we are
unwittingly making the same mistake of thinking a great deal about one scenario, which is the sort of
worst case climate change scenario. You couldn’t get anybody to talk about that, but it was a much
more clear and present danger. Also, he serves around the board of Affiliated Managers Group. His
chapters on morale and also the problem of surrendering are first-rate his account from the myths of
war enthusiasm instructions respect and the management of the press and propaganda go well past
previous (and mistaken) accounts of propagandists as puppeteers and also the studying public as
puppets. We know masonic lodges were very important, we know that they spread all over Europe
and North America, but the people who used to write about them were often, if not conspiracy
theorists, certainly writing a kind of history that leaned in the direction of the conspiracy theory.
Accused of being an apologist for colonialism, he pointed at the lack of nuance in such a reading and
asked critics to compare the British Empire to its German and Japanese alternatives. And the current
departments of history are not doing this work at all, they’ve basically moved into a domain of
cultural history and identity politics, they are disengaged from contemporary problems mostly, and as
far as I can see, they’re mostly concerned about condemning the past for its racism and sexism and
general lack of wokeness. Remember that the way that the regulatory or administrative state has
evolved since the 1970s has been that when Congress saw something too tricky, it punted it to a new
agency, starting with the Environmental Protection Agency. He argues that a networked world is a
dangerous world, in that it allows movements and societies to advance in unexpected ways. When
left-wing students protest, the right claims the mantle of defending free speech — when what they’re
actually doing is opening the door to overtly offensive discourse. It is just when all of the variables
and factors are arrayed are we able to state that, yes, maintaining your Tories out was the decisive
issue. For the global challenges, I think one has to recognize that there is a fundamental mismatch
between what states will commit to in things like the Paris Accord and how their commitments will
be enforced. Millions rely on Vox’s clear, high-quality journalism to understand the forces shaping
today’s world. But possibly he should deal with the prevalent feeling mentioned in most of them (as
well as in their letters) that lots of soldiers fought against world war 2 simply because they were
convinced it had been a defensive war not that belongs to them making, which the things they were
protecting not just their friends within the line, but additionally the things they saw as a means of
existence. And when I started to look at the geological record, the first thing that hit me was, wow,
we really stopped having big volcanoes in 1815.
A world in which all viewpoints can be respected should, in theory, benefit people from all
perspectives. If one were to try to apply, and it’s dangerous to do this, evolutionary frameworks to
human history, first of all, somebody would say stop, that is no longer allowed, do not go there on
pain of cancellation, but then you’d kind of step back and say, well, what is the right way to think
about war. Support our mission and help keep Vox free for all by making a financial contribution to
Vox today. He claims that while Asia in particular is implementing these killer apps (they
downloaded them), Europe and the West is in the process of deleting them. Wouldn’t it took on the
different tone been with them not been compiled by someone polished within the Oxbridge system,
where paradox and aphorism are valued because the epitome of human knowledge. That’s kind of
how I’m beginning to realize this will play out. I can absolutely imagine that being more like a
network rather than a hierarchy lets societies respond better to unanticipated disasters of various
sorts. Something like the global pandemic is an example, but there are many other examples, from
earthquakes to wars, famines and so forth, and it matters how you organize your society. And my
sister is a physicist at Yale, who publishes papers, the titles of which I don’t understand, quite apart
from the content. Some would say he spoke so well in spite of not using PowerPoint. Similarly, he
dismisses the concept Churchill may have saved the British Empire by negotiating another peace
with Hitler. Like a computer once place it, “The easiest method to play farmville isn’t to experience it
whatsoeverInch. He is another Senior Fellow in the Hoover Institution, Stanford College, along with
a Visiting Professor at Tsinghua College, Beijing. It had been the antithesis from the erotic instinct
“to save and unify”. He fixes on compelling details: no sooner had the Soviets grabbed Buchenwald
compared to what they tried on the extender to accommodate their very own prisoners. That means
prohibitions on all large indoor gatherings. It works on my Windows 7 64 computer with Windows
Media Player. Would this book happen to be different had its author not have access to been
immersed within the good reputation for banking during the last couple of years. In 2001, following
a year like a Houblon-Norman Fellow in the Bank of England, he printed The Money Nexus: Money
and Power nowadays, 1700-2000. Ferguson has some astute things to say of the lack of pacifism in
the majority of soldiers’ memoirs from the war. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the
Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Unlike other right-wing historians, he censures
Chamberlain’s tries to appease Hitler. Particularly when Niall was asked to speak more about how
Paul Revere might have been as important as Washington. I look forward to listening to the speech,
as it sounds fascinating. Our economics correspondent Phillip Inman witnessed the hearing and joins
us in the studio. We get a pattern recognition skill over time; unlike mathematicians, historians should
get better at being historians the older they get, because they should get better at the pattern
recognition. I had a similar encounter years ago, 20 years ago, writing the history of the Rothschild
family, who feature in any number of conspiracy theories, but when you look carefully into their
archives, there was a tremendously powerful network of mostly Jewish financial families and
institutions that was crucial to the evolution of 19th century financial capitalism. He is currently the
Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, a senior faculty fellow
of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard, and a visiting professor at
Tsinghua University, Beijing. Accused of being an apologist for colonialism, he pointed at the lack of
nuance in such a reading and asked critics to compare the British Empire to its German and Japanese
alternatives. With the American Revolution, we can actually work out which leaders or well-known
figures in the American Revolution were in network terms the most important in terms of centrality,
say between the centrality.