Professional Documents
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A cash flow forecast is a detailed forecast of cash inflows and outflows incorporating both
revenue and capital items.
A cash flow forecast is thus a statement in which estimated future cash receipts and
payments are tabulated in such a way as to show the forecast cash balance of a business at
defined intervals.
The usefulness of cash flow forecasts:
The cash flow forecast is one of the most important planning tools that an organization can use.
It shows the cash effect of all plans made within the flow forecasting process and hence its
preparation can lead to a modification of flow forecasts if it shows that there are insufficient
cash resources to finance the planned operations. It can also give management an indication of
potential problems that could arise and allows them the opportunity to take action to avoid
such problems. A cash flow forecast can show four positions. Management will need to take
appropriate action depending on the potential position.
Treasury management
A large organization will have a treasury department to manage liquidity, short-term
investment, borrowings, foreign exchange risk and other, specialized, areas such as forward
contracts and futures.
Treasury management can be defined as: 'The corporate handing of all financial matters, the
generation of external and internal funds for business, the management of currencies and
cash flows, and the complex strategies, policies and procedures of corporate finance.'
(Association of Corporate Treasurers)
KEY FUNCTIONS
(a) Management of Liquidity
(b) Management of funding
(c) Management of risk
(d) Advising on corporate finance issues.
ADVANTAGES OF Centralised treasury department.
a) Centralised Liquidity Management
(i) Avoids having a mix of cash surpluses and overdrafts in different localised
bank accounts.
(ii) Facilitates bulk cash flows, so that lower bank charges can be negotiated.
(b) Larger volumes of cash are available to invest, giving better short-term investment
opportunities (for example money markets, high-interest accounts and CDs).
(c) Any borrowing can be arranged in bulk, at lower interest rates than for smaller borrowings,
and perhaps on the eurocurrency or eurobond markets.
(d) Foreign exchange risk management is likely to be improved in a group of companies.
(e) A specialist treasury department can employ experts with knowledge of dealing in forward
contracts, futures, options, eurocurrency markets, swaps and so on. Localised departments
could not have such expertise.
(f) The centralised pool of funds required for precautionary purposes will be smaller than the
sum of separate precautionary balances which would need to be held under decentralised
treasury arrangements.
(g) Through having a separate profit centre, attention will be focused on the contribution to
group profit performance that can be achieved by good cash, funding, investment and foreign
currency management.
Possible advantages of decentralised cash management are as follows.
(a) Sources of finance can be diversified and can match local assets.
(b) Greater autonomy can be given to subsidiaries and divisions because of the closer
relationships they will have with the decentralised cash management function.
(c) A decentralised treasury function may be more responsive to the needs of individual
operating units.
(d) Since cash balances will not be aggregated at group level, there will be more limited
opportunities to invest such balances on a short-term basis.
Cash Management Models
Optimal cash holding levels can be calculated from formal models, such as the Baumol model
and the Miller-Orr model.
a) The Baumol model
The Baumol model is based on the idea that deciding on optimum cash balances is like deciding
on optimum inventory levels. It assumes that cash is steadily consumed over time and a
business holds a stock of marketable securities that can be sold when cash is needed. The cost
of holding cash is the opportunity cost, ie the interest foregone from not investing the cash. The
cost of placing an order is the administration cost incurred when selling the securities. The
Baumol model uses an equation of the same form as the EOQ formula for inventory
management which we looked at earlier.
Q= 2CS/ i
Where S = the amount of cash to be used in each time period
C = the cost per sale of securities
i = the interest cost of holding cash or near cash equivalents
Q = the total amount to be raised to provide for S
Example: Baumol approach to cash management
Finder Co faces a fixed cost of $4,000 to obtain new funds. There is a requirement for $24,000
of cash over each period of one year for the foreseeable future. The interest cost of new funds
is 12% per annum; the interest rate earned on short-term securities is 9% per annum. How
much finance should Finder raise at a time?
End of paper