lecture 5 Page 1

2
Sunday, February 14, 2021 11:03 PM

lecture 5 Page 2
3
Sunday, February 14, 2021 11:03 PM

lecture 5 Page 3
4
Sunday, February 14, 2021 11:11 PM

lecture 5 Page 4
5
Sunday, February 14, 2021 11:17 PM

lecture 5 Page 5
6
Sunday, February 14, 2021 11:29 PM

lecture 5 Page 6
7
Sunday, February 14, 2021 11:35 PM

2.1.4 Poisson, Binomial, and Multinomial Sampling

The probability distributions like Binomial, Poisson, Multinomial extend to cell counts

lecture 5 Page 7
8
Sunday, February 14, 2021 11:48 PM

Seat Belt Example

Researchers in the Massachusetts Highway Department plan to study the

relationship between seat-belt use (yes, no). and outcome of an automobile
crash (fatality, nonfatality) for drivers involved in accidents.
They plan to catalog all accidents on the turnpike for the next
year, classifying each according to these variables. The total sample size is
then a random variable. They might treat the numbers of observations at the
four combinations of seat-belt use and outcome of crash as independent
Poisson random variables with unknown means µ11, µ12 , µ21, µ22 .

lecture 5 Page 8
9
Monday, February 15, 2021 12:12 AM

Suppose, instead, that the researchers randomly sample 200 police records
of crashes on the turnpike in the past year and classify each according to
seat-belt use and outcome of crash. For this study, the total sample size n
is fixed. They might then treat the four cell counts as a multinomial random
variable with n =200 trials and unknown joint probabilities
{π11, π12 , π 21, π 22 }.

Suppose, instead, that police records for accidents involving fatalities were
filed separately from the others. The researchers might instead randomly
sample 100 records of accidents with a fatality and randomly sample 100
records of accidents with no fatality. This approach fixes the column totals in
at 100. They might then regard each column as an
independent binomial sample.

lecture 5 Page 9
10
Monday, February 15, 2021 12:15 AM

COMPARING TWO PROPORTIONS:

Many studies are designed to compare groups on a binary response variable.

Then Y has only two categories, such as (success, failure) for outcome of an experiment. With two
groups, a 2 x 2 contingency table displays the results. The rows are the groups and the columns are the
categories of Y.

Difference of Proportions:

lecture 5 Page 10
11
Monday, February 15, 2021 12:29 AM

lecture 5 Page 11
12
Monday, February 15, 2021 12:36 AM

Relative Risk:

lecture 5 Page 12
13
Monday, February 15, 2021 12:43 AM

lecture 5 Page 13
14
Monday, February 15, 2021 12:45 AM

An alternative name for θ is the cross-product ratio.

lecture 5 Page 14
 15
Monday, February 15, 2021 12:52 AM

lecture 5 Page 15
16
Monday, February 15, 2021 1:07 AM

The odds ratio does not change value when the orientation of the table
reverses so that the rows become the columns and the columns become the
rows.

lecture 5 Page 16
17
Monday, February 15, 2021 1:14 AM

lecture 5 Page 17
18
Monday, February 15, 2021 1:19 AM

lecture 5 Page 18
19
Monday, February 15, 2021 1:23 AM

lecture 5 Page 19