Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06486-4

ORIGINAL PAPER

Identification and trend analysis of compound

meteorological hazards along Vietnam’s coastline

Tung Nguyen‑Duy1,2 · Thanh Ngo‑Duc1 · Dzung Nguyen‑Le1 ·

Thanh Nguyen‑Xuan1 · Tan Phan‑Van3

Received: 10 October 2023 / Accepted: 29 January 2024

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2024

Abstract
The concept of compound hazards refers to the simultaneous occurrence or rapid succes-
sion of multiple hazards within a specific area. In this study, we identified compound mete-
orological hazards based on three types of individual hazards: high temperatures, heavy
rainfall, and tropical cyclones (TCs). We computed the number of each type of individual
hazards and their compounds at 10 selected stations along the coastline of Vietnam for the
period 1980–2018. A temperature hazard (rainfall hazard) is identified if the maximum
temperature (rainfall amount) on a given day exceeds the 95th percentile of all daily values
recorded over the study period. A location is considered exposed to a TC hazard on a given
day if the distance from that location to the TC center is less than 250 km. Subsequently,
a compound hazard event is identified if the interval between the ending time of one indi-
vidual hazard event and the starting time of the following one is less than 10 days. The
results indicate that the annual number of compound hazards shows increasing trends at the
majority of the stations, mainly due to the increase in temperature hazards. At the seasonal
scale, compound hazards typically occur from March to November, primarily associated
with temperature hazards in the first half of the year and with TCs and rainfall hazards in
the later months. The identification and analysis of compound hazards in this study provide
essential information for resilience and adaptation planning in Vietnam.

Keywords Compound hazards · Historical trends · Temperature hazard · Heavy rainfall ·

Tropical cyclone · Vietnam

1 Introduction

Extreme events such as hot temperature, heavy rainfall, and tropical cyclones can be con-
sidered as meteorological hazards. These hazards can be destructive and have negative
impacts on various aspects of life. For instance, a heatwave can increase the risk of hospital
admission for individuals with mental disorders (Trang et al. 2016), be associated with
dengue outbreaks (Cheng et al. 2020), be a risk factor for children (Phung et al. 2015), and
lead to decreased labor productivity (Lai et al. 2023). Rising temperatures can lead to a
reduction in the durability of building materials (Stewart et al. 2012). Meanwhile, heavy

Extended author information available on the last page of the article

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 Natural Hazards

rainfall can trigger other types of hazards, including floods (Luo et al. 2018; Tien Bui et al.
2013) and landslides (Van Tien et al. 2021), resulting in adverse damage to social life,
agriculture, health care, and infrastructure. Moreover, heavy rainfall is also correlated with
an increase in cases of infectious diseases (Suk et al. 2020; McMichael. 2015). Tropical
cyclones (TC), on the other hand, can cause multiple impacts due to the combined effects
of several phenomena, such as heavy rainfall, strong winds, and storm surge (e.g., Imamura
and Van To. 1997), may subsequently trigger other hazards like floods and landslides due
to TC-induced heavy rainfall.
In recent hazard-related studies, there has been a notable emphasis on compound haz-
ards (e.g. Zscheischler et al. 2018; Ridder et al. 2020; Heinrich et al. 2023a, b; Xi et al.
2023). The concept of compound hazards refers to the simultaneous occurrence or rapid
succession of multiple hazards within a specific area. These can pose greater risks than
individual hazards (Xi et al. 2023; Zscheischler et al. 2018) and may result in more eco-
nomic losses (Ribeiro et al. 2020). Therefore, understanding the trend of compound haz-
ards is crucial for improving adaptation strategies (Feng et al. 2022). For instance, Xi et al.
(2023) suggested that the possibility of sequential hazards associated with TCs—such
as heavy rainfall, strong winds, and storm surges—has been increasing during the past
69 years and is projected to increase more in the future. Vaghefi et al. (2022) showed that
the frequency of events where hot days are followed by hot nights is projected to increase
across all emission scenarios, especially in cases with high emissions.
Vietnam is one of the countries that have been strongly affected by climate change
(MONRE 2016, 2020), leading to substantial economic losses (Espagne et al. 2021, 2023).
Consequently, understanding the characteristics of different hazard types in Vietnam is cru-
cial, and there has been a recent focus on investigating their spatial and temporal vari-
ability in the region. By examining data from meteorological stations, prior studies have
reported an increasing trend in temperature hazards (Ngo-Duc. 2014; Nguyen et al. 2017;
Cheong et al. 2018). Unlike temperature, the trends of rainfall hazards over the past dec-
ades exhibit diverse patterns across different areas and different periods. Quan et al. (2021)
showed that most of the stations observed an increasing trend of annual precipitation over
Ho Chi Minh City, the largest and most populous city in southern Vietnam, during the
period of 1980–2017. Endo et al. (2009) demonstrated an increase in the precipitation in
southern Vietnam from the 1950s to the 2000s. Phuong et al. (2022) found that precipita-
tion has increased over specific areas in the Central Highlands in the past decades. Ngo-
Duc et al. (2023) showed that most stations in Northern Vietnam exhibited a declining
trend in the annual total rainfall during wet days while indicating an increasing trend in
rainfall intensity for the period 1961–2018. Along the coastal regions of Vietnam, there
was a decreasing tendency in the northern coast and an increasing trend in the central and
southern coastal regions (Ngo-Duc et al. 2014). On a larger geographical scale study, Choi
et al. (2009), however, suggested that there were no systematic, regional trends in the fre-
quency and duration of extreme precipitation events over the Asia–Pacific region for the
period 1955–2007. Caesar (2011) showed a non-significant increasing trend in the annual
extreme rainfall amount (R95p) in the Indo-Pacific region during the period 1971–2005.
Choeng et al. (2018) indicated emerging trends in precipitation extremes over Southeast
Asia during 1972–2010, with significant increases in both regional and subregional data.
With a long coastline spanning over 3200 km, Vietnam is particularly vulnerable to
TCs. There have been several studies about the trends in TC activity in Vietnam, but the
results vary among authors, primarily due to differences in study periods. Wang et al.
(2014) argued that the number of TCs occurring in the late months of the year (Octo-
ber–December) increased during the period 1975–2014, leading to a rise in associated

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Natural Hazards

rainfall in central Vietnam. On an annual average, Takagi (2019) suggested that there is
no significant trend in TC frequency and intensity over the last 40 years (1977–2017). Fur-
thermore, Pham-Thanh et al. (2020) indicated that when examined on a decadal time scale,
the number of TCs affecting Vietnam has decreased slightly in the two most recent decades
compared to the previous ones.
As mentioned above, compound hazards can significantly impact resilience and adapta-
tion planning. However, studies on compound hazards in Vietnam remain limited, with a
concentration on pluvial flooding, storm surge, and sea-level rise (Simpson et al. 2023). In
this study, we aim to conduct the first case study on the changes in compound meteorologi-
cal hazards, considering the individual events of extreme rainfall, extreme temperature, and
TCs, along the coast of Vietnam over the past four decades.
In Sect. 2, we describe the method for defining individual hazards and compound haz-
ards. The results and discussions are then presented in Sect. 3, followed by the conclusion
in Sect. 4.

2 Data and method

2.1 Data

In this study, we used daily maximum temperature and daily accumulated precipitation
obtained from the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration (VMHA). We
selected 10 coastal stations satisfying the condition of having data completeness exceeding
95% throughout the entire study period 1980–2018 (Table 1). Figure 1a displays the station
locations and the percentage of the missing data for both precipitation and temperature.
For most stations, the missing data accounted for less than 1%, except for station 3 which
had 2.0% missing data for temperature. The TC track data were sourced from the Interna-
tional Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) (Knapp et al. 2010). This
dataset provides the best track information every 6 h for TCs worldwide by combining data
from multiple sources. The tracks of TCs affecting Vietnam during 1980–2018 are shown
in Fig. 1b. The TC density tends to be higher in northern Vietnam, especially near sta-
tions 1 and 2, while it is lower in southern Vietnam, particularly around station 10 (CaMau
station).

Table 1  Names and locations No Name Latitude (°N) Longitude (°E)

of 10 selected meteorological
stations
1 ThaiBinh 20.45 106.35
2 HaTinh 18.35 105.9
3 DongHa 16.85 107.083
4 DaNang 16.033 108.2
5 QuangNgai 15.117 108.8
6 QuyNhon 13.767 109.217
7 NhaTrang 12.217 109.2
8 PhanThiet 10.983 108.1
9 VungTau 10.367 107.083
10 CaMau 9.183 105.15

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 Natural Hazards

Fig. 1  a Locations of the 10 meteorological stations used in this study. The numbers in parentheses indicate
the percentage of missing values over the 39 years study period for daily precipitation and temperature data,
respectively. b Tracks of TCs affecting Vietnam from 1980 to 2018 (in lines) and numbers of days that a
point is within 250 km from an active TC center during the study period (in colors)

2.2 Method for identifying a compound hazard event and trends

We define a compound meteorological hazard as the simultaneous occurrence or rapid

succession of multiple hazards, either of the same or different types, within a specified
time period. Specifically, we consider three types of individual hazards: high temperature,
heavy rainfall, and TCs. A day is considered a temperature hazard day if the maximum
temperature of that given day exceeds the 95 percentile of all maximum daily temperatures
recorded over the 39 year period 1980–2018. A rainfall hazard day is defined similarly, but
the computations consider only wet days (days with rainfall ≥ 1 mm) and exclude TC days,
defined as days when an active TC center is located within 500 km of the station, to limit
the risk of overcounting compound events. This 500 km radius represents the limited influ-
ence of TCs on local rainfall in coastal regions of Vietnam, as estimated by Pham-Thanh
et al. (2020). Finally, following criteria similar to those used by Xi et al. (2023), a location
is considered exposed to TC on a given day if the distance from that location to the TC
center is less than 250 km.
We then identify the starting and ending times of each individual hazard event, occur-
ring over a number of consecutive days without interruption. As an illustration, from Octo-
ber 1 to November 20, 1999, we observed in Fig. 2 two individual rainfall hazard events
at Station 4, i.e. DaNang Station, in Central Vietnam. The first event occurred on October
27, and the second spanned four consecutive days, from November 1 to November 4. The
starting and ending times of the first rainfall hazard event were October 1, while those of
the second event were November 1 and November 4, respectively. Subsequently, a com-
pound hazard event is identified if the interval between the ending time of one individual
hazard event and the starting time of the following one is less than 10 days. It is important
to note that the choice of the co-occurrence period in prior compound hazard studies has
been somewhat arbitrary to date. Some studies opted for a very short interval; for example,
Olmo et al. (2020) choose a co-occurrence period of 3 days. On the other hand, others

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Natural Hazards

Fig. 2  Illustration of the compound hazard events detected at Station 4 (DaNang Station) in 1999. The hori-
zontal axis indicates the days of the year. Line R indicates rainfall hazard days (blue dots), line T indicates
temperature hazard days (orange dots), and line C indicates TC hazard days (red dots). 8 compound events
identified in 1999 are marked by purple dots

may choose a longer interval; for example, Wu et al. (2019) defined compound hazards as
the co-occurrence of precipitation and temperature extremes within the same month, i.e.
the interval period can be up to 31 days. The selection of a 10 days interval in this study
is inspired by the study of Xi et al. (2023). Since the selected compound interval is arbi-
trary, to confirm the robustness of the findings, we also employ interval thresholds of 7 and
15 days as criteria.
Figure 2 illustrates an example of the compound hazard events detected using the
above criteria at Station 4 in 1999. The 95th percentile values for the data over the period
1980–2018 are 73.23 mm for daily rainfall and 36.5 °C for daily maximum temperature,
respectively. We can observe the periods during which DaNang Station experienced com-
pound hazard events, particularly two successive compound events detected from mid-
October to early November: the first one resulted from a TC hazard occurring on October
19 and a rainfall hazard on October 27; the second one was the combination of the rainfall
hazard event on October 27 and four consecutive rainfall hazard days starting on November
1. It is essential to note that these successive compound hazard events from mid-October
to early-November 1999 resulted in widespread flooding, considered to be among the worst
disasters in the history of Vietnam, affecting approximately 1.7 million people in Central
Vietnam, causing 352 deaths, and resulting in approximately USD 120 million in damages
(Tran and Shaw 2007; Yokoi and Matsumoto 2008). For the whole year 1999, DaNang
Station experienced 8 compound events: the first event, marked by two consecutive tem-
perature hazards, started on June 20, while the last event, caused by consecutive rainfall
hazards, started on November 28, 1999.
To assess trends in the number of individual hazard and compound events, we employed
the standard linear trend method and utilized the Student’s t-test to determine the statistical
significance of these trends. We applied a p value threshold of 0.05 to identify whether a
trend is significant (i.e., p < 0.05), or not (i.e., p ≥ 0.05).

3 Results and discussions

3.1 Trend of compound hazard events

The annual variation of compound hazard events over the study period is shown in Fig. 3.
In general, the majority of stations (7 out of 10) exhibit an increasing trend in the annual

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 Natural Hazards

Fig. 3  a Number of compound events within the interval thresholds of 10, 15, and 7 days (black, blue, and
red curves, respectively) at Station 1. Bold-straight lines represent the linear trends of the events. Solid lines
indicate significant trends (p < 0.05), while dashed lines imply non-significant trends (p ≥ 0.05). b–j same as
a but for Stations 2–10

number of compound hazard events. Regarding Station 1 (ThaiBinh Station), the trend of
compound hazards shows an increase but is statistically non-significant (p = 0.19 for the
10 days interval). The number of compound events displays substantial variations, ranging
from only 3 (4) events in 2000 (2000) to 17 (19) events in 2015 (2016), considering the
10 days (15 days) interval, respectively.
Similarly, the increasing trends in Station 2 (HaTinh Station), Station 4 (DaNang Sta-
tion), Station 7 (NhaTrang Station) are also not statistically significant. For the threshold of
10 days interval, there were only 1 compound event in 1984 at Station 7, while the maxi-
mum number of events was 16 in 2003 at Station 2 and 14 in 1988 at Station 4, and it
reached 19 events in 1998 at Station 7. If the interval threshold is increased to 15 days, the
lowest number of compound events was 3 in 1994 at Station 2, 2 in 1994 at Station 4, and
also 1 in 1984 at Station 7. The highest number was 20 in 2003 at Station 2, 18 in 1993 at
Station 4, and 22 in 1998 at Station 7.
Among the 10 stations, only three, including Station 3 (DongHa Station), Station 6
(QuyNhon Station), and Station 10 (CaMau Station), exhibit decreasing trends, although
statistically insignificant. A higher number of compound events occurred in the first half of
the study period, contributing to this decrease. For example, there were up to 17 (19) com-
pound events in 1997 (1997) at Station 6 for the threshold of 10 days (15 days) interval.
Stations 5 (QuangNgai Station), 8 (PhanThiet Station), and 9 (VungTau Station) expe-
rienced statistically significant increasing trends (p < 0.05) in the number of compound

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Natural Hazards

hazard events. For the threshold of 10 days (15 days) interval, the number of events were
relatively low, generally less than 7 (9) events in the 1980s, and increased remarkably in
recent decades, reaching 17 (17) events in 2016 at Station 5, 19 (22) events in 2016 (2017)
at Station 8, 30 (34) events in 2015 at Station 9.
It is noteworthy that changing the interval threshold results in a variation in the annual
number of compound events, while the overall trend remains nearly identical for all 10 sta-
tions in this study.
Table 2 summarizes the minimum, maximum, and average numbers of annual com-
pound hazards occurring at each station during the study period 1980–2018. With a
10 days threshold, the minimum number of compound hazards ranges from 0 to 3 events.
The maximum number of compound hazards is lower in the north (less than or equal to 18
events) and higher in the south (more than 18 events, reaching up to 30 at Station 9). Over
the study period, the average number of compound hazards ranges from 5.7 (Station 3) to
8.8 events/year (Station 8).
The sensitivity test with the 7 days and 15 days thresholds shows consistent results. Sta-
tion 3 has the lowest maximum number of events per year, while station 9 has the respec-
tive highest maximum number. Furthermore, Station 3 and Station 8 consistently maintain
the lowest and highest average event count, respectively.
In the south of Vietnam (Stations 9 and 10), though the minimum number of compound
events can reach as low as zero in certain years, the maximum number of events is high-
est among the selected stations. This suggests that the number of compound hazard events
could be abruptly high in a certain year, thus potentially negatively impacting the resilience
capacity of the area.

3.2 Trend of individual hazard events

In the following, we display trends of individual hazard events to examine their contribu-
tions to the overall compound trends.
Figure 4 shows the number of annual TC hazard events and their changes over time. In
general, along the coastal area, the trend is inconclusive as the statistical test is insignifi-
cant (p > 0.05) for all 10 selected stations.

Table 2  Minimum, maximum, Station 7 days interval 10 days interval 15 days interval
and average numbers of annual
compound hazards occurring at Min Max Avg Min Max Avg Min Max Avg
each station
1 2 14 6.3 3 17 8.2 4 19 10.3
2 1 11 5.1 1 16 6.6 3 20 8.7
3 0 11 4.5 0 13 5.7 0 15 7.4
4 1 12 5.7 1 14 7.0 2 18 8.5
5 0 14 5.6 1 17 7.1 2 17 8.4
6 1 14 6.0 1 17 7.6 1 19 9.1
7 0 19 6.0 1 19 7.4 1 22 9.0
8 1 19 7.3 2 19 8.8 2 22 10.3
9 0 30 6.5 0 30 7.7 0 34 9.2
10 0 20 6.7 0 21 7.7 2 23 8.8

Bold indicates the lowest and highest values among the 10 stations

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 Natural Hazards

Fig. 4  a Number of TC events per year at Station 1 over the study period (red curve), Black-straight lines
represent the linear trends of the annual TC events. Solid lines indicate significant trends (p < 0.05), while
dashed lines imply non-significant trends (p ≥ 0.05). b–j: same as a but for Station 2–10

In the first 5 stations from mid-Central Vietnam northward, the number of annual TC
hazard events was slightly increasing. These locations typically suffered from 0 to 4 TCs
every year, except in certain years, such as 1989 when Stations 1 and 2 recorded 7 TC
events each, and Station 3 had 6 TC events. It is noteworthy that 8 out of 10 compound
hazards identified at Station 1 in 1989 for the 10 days interval were TC-related (not shown).
This indicates the important role of TC hazards in the identification of compound events.
Stations 6, 7, and 8 in South Central Vietnam exhibit decreasing trends in the number of
TC hazard events. Over the study period, these stations experienced 0 to 4 TCs each year,
except in 1990 and 1995 when there were 5 TC events affecting Station 6. Since 2001,
these stations have generally experienced two or fewer TCs per year.
Among all stations, Stations 9 and 10, located in the southern part of Vietnam, are the
least affected by TCs. Typically, there were fewer than 2 TCs per year. Station 10 did not
experience any TCs during the period of 1980–1990. In southern Vietnam, although there
is a slight increase in the trend of the TC numbers, it is not statistically significant.
Our results indicate that the number of landfall TC events decreases from north to south
of Vietnam, which is consistent with previous findings (Takagi 2019; Pham-Thanh et al.
2020). Over the study period, with the exception of the decreasing trend in South Cen-
tral Vietnam, the number of TCs affecting other parts of Vietnam exhibits slight increas-
ing trends, although these trends are not statistically significant. Nguyen et al. (2017) also
noted that the trends in the number of TCs affecting Vietnam over the period 1959–2015

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Natural Hazards

showed no significant changes. The decreasing TC trend in South Central Vietnam aligns
with the findings of Pham-Thanh et al. (2020), where they reported a clear decrease in the
annual frequency of TCs over this area during 1999–2019 compared to 1979–1998.
Figure 5 illustrates the trend of rainfall hazard events at the 10 selected stations. Just as
with the computation of compound hazard events, we exclude the rainfall events that occur
simultaneously within a 500 km radius of active TC centers.
Due to the spatial variability of rainfall along the coastal areas of Vietnam (Ngo-Duc
et al. 2014), the 95th percentile of daily rainfall for identifying rainfall hazards varies
among stations. The highest 95th percentile threshold is 82.9 mm at Station 2, while the
lowest threshold is 42.3 mm at Station 8. Across the 10 stations, trends in the number of
rainfall hazards are mixed: 4 stations (Stations 2, 3, 9, and 10) experienced decreasing
trends, while the remaining 6 stations observed increasing trends; however, none of these
trends are statistically significant.
At 7 out of 10 stations, excluding Stations 2, 6, and 9, rainfall hazard trends align with
compound hazard trends, suggesting that rainfall hazards may contribute to the overall
trend of compound hazards at those stations. However, at the remaining 3 stations (i.e. Sta-
tions 2, 6, and 9), rainfall hazards exhibit a reverse trend compared to compound hazards,
indicating that rainfall hazards are not the factor determining the compound hazards’ trends
at those stations.
Figure 6 displays the trends in the number of temperature hazard events over the study
period. 7 out of 10 stations observed increasing trends, with three of them (i.e. Stations 5,

Fig. 5  Same as Fig. 4 but for rainfall hazards

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 Natural Hazards

Fig. 6  Same as Fig. 4 but for temperature hazards

8, and 9) being statistically significant. Similar to rainfall, the 95th percentile thresholds for
defining temperature hazards vary among stations. The threshold is highest in the central
part of Vietnam (Station 3—DongHa), reaching 37.6 °C. At Station 9 (VungTau in South-
ern Vietnam), the hazard threshold is the lowest at 33.3 °C. Most stations experienced
fewer than 20 temperature hazard events per year, except for Stations 8 and 9 in South
Central and Southern Vietnam, where the maximum number of events was 21 at Station 8
in 1998 and reached 33 at Station 9 in 2015.
For all stations, the trends in the number of temperature hazards are consistent with
those of compound hazards. Moreover, the stations with statistically significant increases in
temperature hazards, i.e. Stations 5, 8, and 9, are also the stations with significant increases
in compound hazards. Meanwhile, the 3 stations with decreasing trends in temperature
hazards, i.e. Stations 3, 6, and 10, also show decreasing trends in compound hazards. This
suggests that temperature hazards are the primary contributing factor to the trends in com-
pound hazards in the coastal regions of Vietnam.
It is interesting to note that, although previous studies have indicated significant
increases in temperature and various hot extreme indices at most stations in Vietnam (Ngo-
Duc 2014; MONRE 2016, 2020; Espagne et al. 2021), the annual number of temperature
hazards events did not consistently show significant increasing trends at every station,
except for Stations 5, 8, and 9. This can be partly explained by the fact of counting consec-
utive days with the same type of hazard as an individual hazard event, which has reduced
the number of temperature hazard events in recent years, and, consequently, impeded the

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Natural Hazards

increasing trends. Indeed, additional analyses reveal increasing trends in the annual mean
duration of temperature hazard events for 7 out of 10 stations, with trends in Station 5 and
7 being statistically significant (Supplemental Information Fig. S1). Moreover, if we com-
pute the trends for annual temperature hazard days, i.e. number of days within a year where
temperatures exceed the 95th percentile thresholds, the results indicate that out of 10 sta-
tions, 8 stations experienced increasing trends, with 4 of them being statistically significant
(Supplemental Information Fig. S2).

3.3 Seasonal variations

The seasonal variation in the number of compound hazard events is shown in Fig. 7. Across
stations, compound hazards tend to occur mostly from April to November.
At most stations from Station 7 (NhaTrang Station) in South Central Vietnam north-
ward, the peaks in the number of compound events occur in the summer months. For
example, the peak of compound hazards at Station 1 (Station 7) is in July (June), with an
average of 2.4 (1.9) events per month for the 10 days interval threshold. There are no com-
pound events at Station 1 from November to March. Some stations, such as Stations 2–7,
exhibit a double-peak characteristic, with a larger peak in the summer and a smaller one in
the autumn months. For instance, Stations 2, 4, and 5 have two peaks in June and October,
while the first peak occurs earlier in May at Station 3 and later in July at Station 6. At Sta-
tions 4 to 6, the occurrence of compound events tends to shift toward the end of the year,
with some events occurring in December, while there are no events occurring from January
to March.

Fig. 7  Number of compound hazard events for each month of the year, averaged over the study period
1980–2018 using the threshold of 10 days interval

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 Natural Hazards

From Station 8 southward, the number of compound events peaks earlier compared to
the other stations in the north. Stations 8 and 9 have their peak in May, while Station 10
exhibits a peak in April. At Station 8 (PhanThiet Station), the number of compound events
can reach an average of 3.4 events per month, which is the highest across all stations. Thus,
the local community and stakeholders should pay particular attention to compound hazards
in May in this area to mitigate losses.
Figure 8 illustrates how the number of compound events changes when the interval
thresholds are modified. In general, the characteristics identified with the 10 days inter-
val remain similar for the 7 days and 15 days thresholds. There are almost no compound
hazard events occurring in December–January–February (DJF), while a high number
of events occur in the summer months (June–July–August—JJA) from South Central
northward, and earlier in the year (March–April–May—MAM) in the southern part of
Vietnam, particularly at Station 10. Compound events also occur in the autumn months,
with a relatively high number in Central Vietnam (Stations 2–7). It is noteworthy that
the number of compound hazard events may vary significantly from one year to another,
as represented by large standard deviation values (Fig. 8). For some years, the number
of compound hazard events could be very low, even during the season when the number
typically reached its highest values. For example, Station 6 did not experience any com-
pound event in JJA in 1992 for all interval thresholds of 7 days, 10 days, and 15 days,
compared to its JJA average values of 3.7, 4.5, and 5.2 events, respectively. In contrast,

Fig. 8  Seasonal variation in the number of compound hazard events at the 10 stations. Average seasonal
values are shown for the four seasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON, with different interval thresholds: 7 days
(gray bar), 10 days (blue bar), and 15 days (red bar). Error bars indicate ± 1 standard deviation values

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Natural Hazards

the number of compound hazards in JJA at Station 6 reached up to 9, 10, and 13 events,
occurring in 1995, for the 7 days, 10 days, and 15 days thresholds, respectively.
To understand why there is a higher number of compound events in a specific month
of the year, we examine the monthly variation and contribution of each type of hazard
that participated in forming at least one compound event (Fig. 9). In general, tempera-
ture hazards dominate in the earlier months of the year, lasting until August from Sta-
tion 5 (QuangNgai Station) northward, until September for Stations 6–9, and only until
June for Station 10. Rainfall and TC hazards become dominant later in the year, which
is understandable because this is the time when the hot months have already passed, and
there are almost no more temperature hazards. The first compound-related TC activ-
ity generally begins in June in the northern area and later, in October in the southern
part from Station 7 southward. An exception can be observed at Stations 8–9 where a
compound-related TC occurred unusually early in March. This cyclone was named TC
Mamie and was active from mid to late March 1982, making landfall in South Central
Vietnam on March 24.
Similar to the number of compound events, the total number of all compound-related
individual hazard events generally reaches its highest values in the summer months in
the northern region, while it peaks earlier in May in the south at Stations 8–10. These
numbers for all compound-related individual hazard events also exhibit a double-peak
structure at Stations 2–7, like the case of compound events.

Fig. 9  Pie chart for the percentage of each type of compound-related individual hazard events occurring
within each month of a year. The pie’s size is proportional to the sum of all compound-related individual
hazard events in each month

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 Natural Hazards

4 Conclusions

This is the first study to examine the trends of compound meteorological hazards in Viet-
nam. We have formulated a new set of criteria for identifying compound events based on
three types of individual hazards, including high temperature, heavy rainfall, and TCs. In
the study, we have limited the computations of compound hazards to these three individ-
ual hazards due to the availability of daily temperature and rainfall data at the 10 selected
meteorological stations over a long-term period, as well as the TC best tracks from the
IBTrACS global data. As more data becomes available, such as daily wind speed, we may
include additional meteorological hazards, such as strong winds, in the matrix established
in this study to obtain a more comprehensive list of compound events.
We have demonstrated that compound hazards along the coastline of Vietnam typically
occur from March to November. However, depending on the station, compound hazards
occur at different times and are driven by different factors. In early summer, temperature
hazards are the main contributing factor, whereas later in the year, rainfall and TC hazards
become predominant. Furthermore, most parts of the coastal area of Vietnam are facing
a general increasing trend in the number of compound hazards. These trends are particu-
larly pronounced, i.e. statistically significant, in certain areas, including the provinces of
QuangNgai (Station 5), PhanThiet (Station 8), and VungTau (Station 9) in Central and
South Vietnam. The numbers of temperature hazards also show a significant increase at
these stations. Across all 10 stations along the coastline of Vietnam, the trends in tempera-
ture hazards are the primary contributing factor to the trends in compound hazards while
the trends in rainfall hazards and TC events, all non-significant, exhibit minimal influence.
It is noteworthy that as temperatures worldwide are rising due to global warming, there is
a projected increase in the number of temperature hazards. Consequently, this raises the
probability of more hazard events co-occurring, resulting in an increased frequency of
compound hazard events in the future.
This study has provided insights into the trends of compound meteorological hazards
in Vietnam. However, it has not assessed the risks associated with these hazards. It is
important to note that even with the same frequency and intensity of a hazard, the risk can
be reduced through increased resilience and better adaptation. Conversely, more vulner-
able areas, such as those with high population density, may face higher risks. Therefore,
in future studies, it is essential to assess the risks posed by compound hazards, both in
the historical period and in the future within the context of climate change, to support the
development of better adaptation and mitigation plans.
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at https://​doi.​
org/​10.​1007/​s11069-​024-​06486-4.

Acknowledgements This study is supported by the Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technol-
ogy Development (NAFOSTED) under Grant 105.06-2021.14.

Author contributions Th.N.-D. and T.N.-D. contributed to the study conception and prepared the first draft
of the manuscript. T. N.-D. processed data and plotted figures. All authors discussed the results, read, and
approved the final manuscript.

Funding This work was supported by the Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Devel-
opment (NAFOSTED) under Grant 105.06-2021.14.

Declarations
Conflict of interest The authors declare no competing interests.

13
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Natural Hazards

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Authors and Affiliations

Tung Nguyen‑Duy1,2 · Thanh Ngo‑Duc1 · Dzung Nguyen‑Le1 ·

Thanh Nguyen‑Xuan1 · Tan Phan‑Van3

* Thanh Ngo‑Duc
ngo-duc.thanh@usth.edu.vn
Tung Nguyen‑Duy
tungnd@oucru.org
Dzung Nguyen‑Le
nguyen-le.dung@usth.edu.vn
Thanh Nguyen‑Xuan
nguyen-xuan.thanh@usth.edu.vn
Tan Phan‑Van
phanvantan@hus.edu.vn
1
REMOSAT Laboratory, University of Science and Technology of Hanoi (USTH), Vietnam
Academy of Science and Technology (VAST), Hanoi, Vietnam
2
Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
3
Hanoi University of Science, Vietnam National University (HUS-VNU), Hanoi, Vietnam

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