Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 28 (2022) 100827

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Remote Sensing Applications: Society and

Environment
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rsase

Trends in rainfall and hydrometeorological disasters in new capital

city of Indonesia from long-term satellite-based precipitation
products
Ravidho Ramadhan a, b, Marzuki Marzuki a, Wiwit Suryanto b, *, Sholihun Sholihun b,
Helmi Yusnaini a, Robi Muharsyah c, Muhammad Hanif d
a Department of Physics, Universitas Andalas, Padang, 25163, Indonesia
b Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, 55281, Indonesia
c Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics of Republic Indonesia, Jakarta, 10720, Indonesia
d Department of Geo-Informatics, College of Computing, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, 40002, Thailand

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: The Indonesian government has decided to move its capital city from Jakarta in Java to Nusan-
New capital of Indonesia tara Capital City (IKN) on Borneo island. This study investigates the trend and variability of rain-
IKN fall in the IKN and two buffer cities and its relation to hydrometeorological disasters. We analyze
Rainfall 20 years of Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) version 6 data and hydromete-
IMERG
orological disaster information from the National Agency for Disaster Countermeasure. The an-
Hidrometeorology disasters
nual rainfall, the extreme rain index of R95p (number of very wet days), and R99p (number of
very extremely wet days) show a slightly decreasing trend. However, the index of consecutive
wet days (CWD) increases, resembling the rising number of floods and landslides. Rainfall shows
robust seasonal and diurnal variations. Peak rainfall occurs in November–December and
March–April, while the driest period is observed during August–October. Dry months associated
with El-Nino, can cause severe dry conditions and increase the potential for catastrophic forest
fires. The peak precipitation amount and frequency were observed in the early morning and the
second peak in the afternoon. Mainland areas tend to have a peak occurring later than those on
the coast and ocean. The results of this study can be additional information in formulating a
strategic plan to anticipate future hydrometeorological disasters in IKN.

1. Introduction
Indonesia is the largest archipelago in the world, with a total area of 1.9 million km2 and a coastline of about 99,000 km. Such a
long coastline comes from 17,000 islands (Badan Informasi Geospasial Indonesia, 2021). Indonesia is located between two warm
oceans (Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean). As a result, Indonesia is one of the wettest countries in the world (Chang et al., 2005),
with a high hydrometeorological hazard potential. Furthermore, Indonesia has a population of 279 million, the 4th highest in the
world, with a density of around 151 people/km2 in 2022 (Worldometer, 2022). Such a high population number is very vulnerable to
hydrometeorological disasters. Based on the National Agency for Disaster Countermeasure (Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Ben-
cana, BNPB) data, in 2021, the number of natural hazards in Indonesia was 2,032, affecting 5.68 million people. Most of the natural
hazards are hydrometeorological disasters (97.12%), such as floods, landslides, cyclones, abrasion, drought, and forest fires (BNPB,

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: ws@ugm.ac.id (W. Suryanto).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2022.100827
Received 5 July 2022; Received in revised form 3 August 2022; Accepted 14 August 2022
Available online 28 August 2022
2352-9385/© 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
R. Ramadhan et al. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 28 (2022) 100827

2022). These disasters cause significant impact in terms of casualties and economic losses. This impact can be even greater in the fu-
ture because the hydrometeorological disaster is predicted to increase in line with the earth's surface temperature increase due to cli-
mate change(Fortunato et al., 2022; Thomas and LLpez, 2015; Valipour et al., 2021).
Natural hazards in Indonesia have an impact on almost all regions, including Jakarta, which is the capital city of Indonesia. Based
on BNPB data, the capital city of Jakarta is ranked 20 out of 34 provinces for all disasters, dominated by hydrometeorological disas-
ters (BNPB, 2022). The disaster in Jakarta caused a greater negative impact than in other places because it can disrupt activities at
government offices. This disaster can potentially reduce fiscal capacity due to disrupted policy-making processes. In addition to dis-
rupting government activities, natural hazards in Jakarta can disrupt other sectors. Apart from being the center of government,
Jakarta is also the center of trade, finance, services, entertainment, sports, culture, transportation, and research in Indonesia (Costa et
al., 2016).
The high natural hazard potential in Jakarta has created a discourse about relocating the location of the capital city of Indonesia.
This discourse started after the heavy flood in Jakarta in February 2007. Apart from the problem of severe flooding in Jakarta, other
problems such as extreme traffic jams in Jakarta became the reason for moving the Indonesian capital from Jakarta. There were three
scenarios at that time: (1) maintaining Jakarta as the capital by improving all problems; (2) moving the center of government from
Jakarta to a new location but remaining on Java island; (3) moving the state capital and administrative center to a new location out-
side Java (Rukmana, 2005; Silalahi, 2019). However, the third scenario was approved by the House of Representatives (DPR) during
a plenary meeting on January 18, 2021. Relocation of Indonesian capital consists of five stages from 2022 to 2045 (Mutaqin et al.,
2021).
The government has designated East Kalimantan Province (Fig. 1) as the location for the new capital city of Indonesia. The new
capital city of Indonesia is named Nusantara Capital City (IKN). The development of basic infrastructure, which is planned to be car-
ried out from 2022 to 2024, will focus on areas where the central government is located. This area includes Kutai Kartanegara Re-
gency and North Penajam Paser Regency. In more detail, the area is located in the Samboja sub-district, Kutai Kartanegara, and the
Sepaku sub-district, North Penajam Paser. Around 256,142 ha are prepared for the IKN, with 56,180 ha for the central government
area and 199,962 ha for development (Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Pusat Statistik Indonesia, 2022).
The selection of East Kalimantan Province as the location for the new capital city of Indonesia after considering various aspects
and reasons. Several reasons put forward by the government are low disaster risk, location in the middle of Indonesia, and complete
infrastructure. Based on data from the United States Geological Survey(USGS), East Kalimantan has a low record of earthquake events
(United States Geological Survey (USGS), 2022). In addition, the location of IKN is also relatively far from an active volcano. Thus,
the chance of disaster due to the seismic activity will be minimal (Irsyam et al., 2020). However, the observation of the potential risk
of hydrometeorological disasters has not been analyzed comprehensively. IKN area is close to the equator and the Inter-Tropical Con-
vective Zone (ITCZ). Consequently, this area receives high rainfall throughout the year (Schneider et al., 2014; Yan et al., 2015).This
will increase the potential for hydrometeorological disasters such as floods and landslides. Therefore, further research is needed to ex-
amine the trend of rainfall in IKN and its relation to the potential for hydrometeorological disasters.
The limited availability of rain gauge data in Indonesia is an obstacle to observing the rainfall profile of an area. In addition, the
incomplete rainfall data from the rain gauge station is also a difficulty to observe the rainfall profile. To overcome this lack of rain
gauge data, precipitation data from satellite products is an option. There have been a lot of precipitation data from satellite observa-
tion available with various spatial and temporal resolutions (Islam et al., 2020; Sadeghi et al., 2021; G. G. Tang et al., 2020). On Feb-
ruary 24, 2014, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite was launched as a successor to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring
Mission (TRMM) satellite which has stopped operating since 2015. GPM generates rainfall data using a combination of sensors in-
stalled on the satellite with data from multi-satellite observation. This data is combined with monthly rain gauge data from the Global
Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) to minimize bias from satellite observations. The integrated rainfall data is known as Inte-
grated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Products. The IMERG produces precipitation data with a temporal resolution of up
to 30 min and a spatial resolution of 0.1 × 0.1° (Huffman et al., 2019; Tan et al., 2019). This study used 20 years of IMERG version 6
data and hydrometeorological disaster information from the BNPB, to investigates the trend and variability of rainfall in the IKN and
its relation to hydrometeorological disasters.
The evaluation of IMERG shows an excellent ability to observe rains in Indonesia. Evaluations of IMERG data have been carried
out for one rain gauge point (Ramadhan et al., 2022b; Wiwoho et al., 2021; Yusnaini et al., 2021), multiple rain gauge points (Liu et
al., 2020; Ramadhan et al., 2022a, 2022c; Yuda et al., 2021), and grid data (Ma et al., 2020). In addition to the amount and type of
comparison data used, evaluations have also been carried out for different time scales, topography, seasonal, and extreme events. In
general, IMERG shows better accuracy for longer data durations. The accuracy decreases with decreasing the time scale used, espe-
cially for hourly data. However, observations of diurnal patterns can be carried out well using IMERG data, as was done on Sumatra
(Marzuki et al., 2021, 2022a, 2022b). The IMERG can still capture diurnal patterns in the Indonesian region compared to rain gauge
observations. Furthermore, the evaluation of IMERG also shows an excellent ability to observe extreme rains in Indonesia (Ramadhan
et al., 2022a). Thus, IMERG data can be used to analyze the rainfall profile in IKN on an annual to hourly scale. In addition, the profile
of extreme rain in the area can also be observed using IMERG data, where extreme events are closely related to the potential for hy-
drometeorological disasters (Lazzari and Piccarreta, 2018).

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R. Ramadhan et al. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 28 (2022) 100827

Fig. 1. Topography of Borneo Island (a) and the location of the sub-district chosen as the capital of the capital city of f Indonesia (b). The red dot on the map is the lo-
cation of the station used for IMERG data validation. The elevation map uses NOAA's ETOPO1 data. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend,
the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

2. Data and methodology

2.1. Study area
This study focuses on the sub-districts of Sepaku and Semboja, which are the initial construction sites for IKN (Fig. 1). The sub-
districts are located in the southern hemisphere of Borneo Island and on the outskirts of the coast. Four buffer zones support IKN. The
main buffer areas are the districts of Kutai Kartanegara and North Panajam Paser, where Samboja and Sepaku sub-districts are lo-
cated. In addition, IKN is supported by two other buffer cities, namely Samarinda (0.372–1.154 S and 116.254–117.404 E) and Balik-
papan (1.0–1.5 S and 116.5–117.5 E). The infrastructure is quite complete in the last two buffer cities, such as airports, health facili-
ties, electricity reserves, and others.
IKN faces the Makassar Strait, part of the Indonesia Throughflow (ITF). The Makassar Strait, along with the Sulawesi Sea, Java
Sea, and Karimata Strait, is one of the hottest sea surface waters in the world, known as the Tropical 'boiler box'(Gordon and Fine,
1996). The warm sea water comes from sea surface currents that flow from the warm pool area northeast of Irian Jaya Island (New
Guinea). Consequently, sea surface temperature (SST) in the ITF, including the Makassar Strait, is strongly influenced by warm pool
conditions. When the sun's position is in the southern hemisphere during the North-East (NE) monsoon, the ITF will bring cold water
from the warm pool to the Makassar Strait, Sulu Sea, Sulawesi Sea, and the Java Sea. Colder seawater prevents the formation of a con-
vection zone in the ITF area. In addition, the availability of water resources in the eastern region of Borneo is less than in the western
region of Borneo, causing the lowest rainfall in East Borneo. Lower rainfall causes a rain-shading effect so that it has a higher tempera-
ture than other areas, commonly known as the Dry and Hot (DH) area on the island of Borneo. This region has the lowest rainfall, with
a 25–26% rainfall lower than other regions, and the highest temperatures than other regions in Borneo (Sa'adi et al., 2021).

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2.2. Rain gauge data

There is no rain gauge station in IKN. However, the buffer city has a weather observation station belonging to the Meteorology,
Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). This observation station can be used to validate precipitation from satellite products
used in this study. Rainfall data from three Automatic Weather Station (AWS) stations during 2016–2020 are used, each located in
Samarinda, Semboja, and Balikpapan. Location and ID of each station is Balikpapan (ID: 150339, 1.201 S, 116.8 E), Semboja (ID:
150340; 1.014 S, 117.1 E), and Samarinda (ID: 150341; 0.5595 S, 117.2 E). The location of each station can be seen in Fig. 1.The
temporal resolution of AWS data is 10 min. The AWS data used is quality controlled following similar procedures in previous studies
(Ramadhan et al., 2022a, 2022c).

2.3. GPM IMERG data

This study uses IMERG data from 2001 to 2020 with a temporal resolution of 30 min and a spatial resolution of 0.1°. IMERG data
can be downloaded for free on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) website (https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/).
IMERG data is available from June 2000 to the present. IMERG data before the GPM era (before 2014) combines the IMERG algorithm
with data from the TRMM satellite. Compared to TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data, IMERG has a significant
performance improvement. The Spatio-temporal resolution of IMERG is 0.1ᵒ-30 min, while the TMPA is only 0.25ᵒ-3 hours. The
IMERG observation coverage (60° S to 60° N) is also larger than that of TMPA (50° S to 50° N). In addition to better resolution and cov-
erage, IMERG has better accuracy in rainfall observations(Kim et al., 2017; Retalis et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2021; Xu et al., 2017).
IMERG data consists of three types of grid data based on the latency. The IMERG data types are Early (IMERG-E), Late (IMERG-L),
and Final (IMERG-F), with latencies of 4 h, 12 h, and 2.5–3.5 months, respectively (Huffman et al., 2019; Tan et al., 2019). In addi-
tion to the difference in latency, there are differences in the algorithms of the three data types, described in detail by Huffman et al.
(2019). This study uses IMERG-F because this data is more recommended for various applications such as weather forecasting, slope
monitoring, and hydrological modeling (Sungmin et al., 2017).

2.4. Natural disaster data

Hydrometeorological disaster data was obtained from the National Agency for Disaster Countermeasure (BNPB). Two sources of
BNPB data can be used: BNPB Geoportal Web (https://gis.bnpb.go.id/) and DiBi BNPB (https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/). On the BNPB geo-
portal web, more detailed disaster information is available, including location and the causes of disasters. The data is available from
2008 until now. However, this information is not available for all disaster events and still needs improvement in the future. In this
study, we combined data on the number of disaster events from the DiBi BNPB website and the BNPB Geoportal to get more concrete
information. To see the number of disasters in the region of the IKN, we focus on the North Penajem Paser district, Kutai Kartanegara
district, and two buffer cities, Samarinda and Balikpapan. There are several types of disasters recorded in the BNPB database, but we
only focus on hydrometeorological disasters with high frequency in Indonesia, namely floods, landslides, tornadoes, and forest fires.

2.5. Methodology
The IMERG data was validated using AWS data with a point-to-pixel approach. This approach is commonly used to validate pre-
cipitation products from the satellite in areas with low rain gauge density (Lu et al., 2021; Sharifi et al., 2016).Validation is carried
out for hourly, daily, and monthly time-scales. The statistical functions used to validate the IMERG data can be seen in Table 1.The
IMERG evaluation was carried out using general assessment and detection capability methods. The general assessment includes the
Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Relative Bias (RB). The CC parameter indicates the degree
of linear correlation, RMSE indicates the average error magnitude, and RB indicates the systematic bias of the IMERG-F rainfall data
towards the rain gauge. Meanwhile, the detection capability test includes Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR),
and Critical Succession Index (CSI), with values ranging from 0 to 1. POD indicates IMERG-F's ability to detect true rain events, and
FAR shows the error rate of IMERG-F in detecting non-rainy events as rain. Furthermore, CSI shows the level of rain detection identi-
fied by IMERG-F compared to all actual rainfall events. The evaluation results are crucial to determine the error value of the rainfall
profile from the IMERG data in IKN area.

Table 1
Statistical quantities. N represents the number of samples, Gi and Si represent gauge observations and satellites data, σG and σS are standard deviation of rain-gauge
and satellite precipitation, respectively. Every satellite gauge match-up can be classified as a hit (H, observed rain correctly detected), a miss (M, observed rain not
detected), a false alarm (F, rain detected but not observed) event.

Statistical quantities Equation Perfect value

CC 1
N 1
∑  i − G)∕𝜎
(Si − S)(G  S𝜎G
N
i=1
RMSE 0
√
N
1
(Si − Gi )2
∑
N
i=1

RB N N 0
(Si − Gi )∕ Gi
∑ ∑
i=1 i=1
POD H/H + M 1
FAR F∕(H + F) 0
CSI H∕(H + F + M) 1

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Table 2 shows the results of the evaluation of the IMERG data. IMERG performance increases with increasing time scale, con-
sistent with previous studies in the maritime continent (Liu et al., 2020; Ramadhan et al., 2022c; Tan and Duan, 2017; Tan and
Santo, 2018). IMERG overestimates the rainfall for the entire time scale, which is indicated by a positive RB value. The best RB
value (RB∼0) is observed in Balikpapan. The CC for the monthly data shows a good correlation (0.6 < CC < 0.8) in Semboja
and a very good correlation (CC > 0.8) in Samarinda and Balikpapan with an average RMSE of 40.72 mm/month. Furthermore,
the CC for the daily scale shows a moderate correlation (0.4 < CC < 0.6) in Semboja and Balikpapan and a good correlation
(0.6 < CC < 0.8) in Samarinda with an average RMSE of 1.92 mm/day. The accuracy of daily rainfall data from IMERG is sup-
ported by its ability to distinguish rainy and non-rainy events (CSI∼0.53). The accuracy of hourly data is smaller than that of
long-time scales. The CC value varies from 0.32 to 0.40 for the three observation locations, with an average RMSE of 0.06 mm/
h. Previous studies also found a low correlation between hourly IMERG data and rain gauges(Marzuki et al., 2022a; Moazami
and Najafi, 2021; Wang et al., 2019). Although the CC value of hourly data is small, the ability of hourly IMERG data to capture
rain events is still excellent (POD∼1). Thus, hourly IMERG data can be used to observe diurnal patterns in the IKN area. Previous
researchers have also demonstrated the ability of IMERG data to observe hourly rainfall through time series analysis (S. S. Tang
et al., 2020; Yusnaini et al., 2021)and diurnal cycle analysis (Ahmed et al., 2021; Hayden and Liu, 2021; Li et al., 2018; Watters
and Battaglia, 2019).
The rainfall profile in the IKN is observed on a yearly, monthly, daily, and hourly scale. On an annual scale, annual rainfall trends
are analyzed for 20 years using the slope of linear regression model. Furthermore, we also analyzed monthly rainfall patterns. The ef-
fect of ENSO on monthly rainfall was observed using the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) developed by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
at NCEP NOAA (CPC, NOAA). ONI is calculated based on the anomaly of the difference in sea surface temperature per three months
for the Pacific and ocean around Indonesia. The ONI index is given in the form of monthly phases, where an index smaller than −0.5
indicates the La Nina phase, characterized by wet conditions in Indonesia.On a daily scale, apart from the distribution of daily rain-
fall, we also examined the extreme precipitation index based on 20 years of IMERG data. We used the extreme rain index from the Ex-
pert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). ETCCDI is a team formed by the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) and the Climate Research Program (WCRP) to standardize sustainable research on extreme weather and climate. The index of
extreme rain that has been selected can be seen in Table 3. The total precipitation index (PRCPTOT) was not included in this study be-
cause it has the same interpretation as annual precipitation. Furthermore, hourly rainfall from IMERG data was used to see the char-
acteristics of the diurnal cycle in the IKN area. The diurnal cycle analysis is based on the peak amplitude and times of precipitation
amount (PA), precipitation frequency (PF), and precipitation intensity (PI). PA is the accumulation of rainfall divided by the overall
data length, PF is the ratio of the number of datawith rain more than 0.1 mm/h to the overall data length, and PI is the ratio between
PA and PF (Marzuki et al., 2022b; Zhang et al., 2017). Finally, we analyze the occurrence of hydrometeorological disasters around the
IKN concerning the rainfall profile that has been obtained.

Table 2
Evaluation of IMERG performance with three closest AWS stations from the location of IKN.

ID Station Time-Scale CC RMSE RB POD FAR CSI

Samarinda (150341) Monthly 0.84 48.12 0.43 – – –

Daily 0.61 2.19 0.43 0.90 0.45 0.51
Hourly 0.40 0.07 0.35 0.77 0.69 0.27
Semboja (150340) Monthly 0.61 54.17 0.51 – – –
Daily 0.52 2.65 0.51 0.87 0.47 0.48
Hourly 0.32 0.09 0.45 0.72 0.69 0.27
Balikpapan (150339) Monthly 0.87 19.87 0.17 – – –
Daily 0.54 1.04 0.17 0.84 0.31 0.60
Hourly 0.36 0.03 0.117 0.74 0.62 0.34

Table 3
List of the selected 13 extreme indices from ETCCDI used in this study.

Category Name Definition Unit

Precipitation amount-based indices R85p Annual total precipitation when RR ≥ 85th percentile of wet-days mm
R95p Annual total precipitation when RR ≥ 95th percentile of wet-days mm
R99p Annual total precipitation when RR ≥ 99th percentile of wet-days mm
Precipitation duration-based indices CDD Maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation ≤1 mm days
CWD Maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation ≥1 mm days
Precipitation frequency-based indices R1mm Annual count of days when precipitation ≥1 mm days
R10mm Annual count of days when precipitation ≥10 mm days
R20mm Annual count of days when precipitation ≥20 mm days
R50mm Annual count of days when precipitation ≥50 mm days
Precipitation intensity-based indices RX1day Annual maximum 1-day precipitation mm/day
RX5day Annual maximum consecutive 5-days precipitation amount mm/(5 days)
SDII Annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet-days in the year mm/day

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3. Results and discussion

3.1. Trend in annual rainfall
Annual rainfall around the IKNand two buffer cities shows a land-sea contrast (Fig. 2a). Rainfall increases as the location get closer
to the coastal sea. The highest annual rainfall is observed over the coastal sea. This pattern is consistent with Ogino et al. (2016),
where the highest annual rainfall in the tropics occurs in coastal areas and decreases in areas farther from the coast. Such high rainfall
is due to the high amount of water vapor carried to the coast from the ocean and land through land-sea breeze circulation
(Hohenegger et al., 2015; Ogino et al., 2017). Slightly higher rainfall in mainland areas was observed in the Sepaku area (near the
bay). To extract average annual rainfall, we took the IMERG grid data corresponding to the Sepaku and Semboja administrative areas.
The grid can be seen in Fig. 2, which is marked with a dotted black line. Of the 29 grids selected, the average annual rainfall for the
IKN is 2762.9 mm/year with standard deviation of 84.65 mm/year.
Rainfall in IKN varies throughout the year. This variation is caused by many factors, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO). ENSO is one of the dominant factors affecting the annual rainfall in Kalimantan(Susilo et al., 2013). In addition, the increase
in the earth's surface temperature may also affect the annual rainfall on the earth's surface (Myhre et al., 2019), including on Borneo
island (Supari et al., 2016, 2017). For this reason, we try to observe the annual rainfall trend using IMERG data for 20 years. In gen-
eral, we find a negative annual rainfall trend in IKN (Fig. 2b). The highest decrease in annual rainfall was observed in offshore areas,
which correspond to high annual rainfall values (Fig. 2a). Such a decrease in annual rainfall values is consistent with climate model
results in the maritime continent(Supari et al., 2020).On the other hand, an almost constant trend (∼0) was observed in the mainland,
starting from the Sepaku area, dominated by areas with a low average rainfall value. This result is in agreement with projection of
rainfall for the next few decades in Borneo(Sa'adi et al., 2020). The negative trend of annual rainfall in the IKN can reduce clean water
reserves in the region in the next few decades.

3.2. Variation of monthly rainfall

The spatial distribution of the average monthly rainfall in the IKN and its surroundings can be seen in Fig. 3a. Generally, the spa-
tial distribution is similar to annual rainfall (Fig. 2a). The average (standard deviation) monthly rainfall in Semboja and Sepaku sub-
districts is 230.24 (53.45) mm/month, ranging from 108.51 mm/month to 317.00 mm/month. Monthly rainfall has two peaks,
namely March–April and November–January, with minimum rainfall observed in August–September (Fig. 3b). The rainfall pattern

Fig. 2. Mean annual rainfall (a) and its trends in IKN (b), based on 20 years of IMERG data. The dotted black line is the IMERG grid selected as the IKN region. The trend
is obtained from the slope of a linear regression model.

Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of mean monthly rainfall (a) and boxplot of mean monthly rainfall for the IKN grid (indicated by the black dotted line) (b), based on 20
years of IMERG data. Red crosses and red horizontal lines in boxplot indicate outliers and median, respectively. Minimum and maximum values were indicated by error
bars. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

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with two peaks of rainfall is a feature of region B of the semi-monsoonal zone in Indonesia. The region along the equator is strongly in-
fluenced by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (Aldrian and Dwi Susanto, 2003; As-Syakur et al., 2016). This should be a
special concern for the government to be aware of potential hydrometeorological disasters such as floods and landslides at the two
peaks of monthly rainfall. Compared to Jakarta, rainfall only has one peak from December to February(Lestari et al., 2021; Yuda et
al., 2021). Despite having two peaks, the monthly rainfall of the two peaks of rainfall in IKN is lower than in Jakarta(Siswanto et al.,
2016).
Fig. 4a-l show the spatial variation of rainfall for each month. On the mainland, the distribution of monthly rainfall is not much
different. In the coastal sea, the monthly variations are more pronounced, where rainfall is higher during December–January, coin-
ciding with the peak of the northwest monsoon. Such contrast is related to the weakening of rains faster on land than in the ocean
during this period (Moron et al., 2010). On the mainland, heavy rainfall is observed in the Sepaku around the bay area. This is ob-
served in several months with high rainfall, such as November to May. This phenomenon is probably caused by the complex topo-
graphical conditions in the western area of Sepaku (Fig. 1b). The complex distribution of land topography causes rainfall variations
(As-Syakur et al., 2016; Sobel et al., 2011). During the rainy season, many clouds form in the oceans and strait areas in the IKN
area. Topographic conditions with high elevations will block the movement of clouds to the west, so a lot of rain occurs in the Sep-
aku area(Ichikawa and Yasunari, 2006).
ENSO influences the monthly rainfall in the IKN. This can be seen in the time series of the monthly ONI index and the anomaly of
monthly rainfall (Fig. 5a). When the ONI index value is high, rainfall tends to be lower than the average value and vice versa. Overall,
we get the CC value between the monthly rainfall and the ONI index of −0.33. Thus, the lower the ONI index, the higher the rainfall,
and vice versa. This is consistent with several previous studies in Indonesia(Aldrian et al., 2007; Chang et al., 2020; Hendon, 2003;

Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of the average monthly rainfall from January to December based on 20 years of IMERG data in the IKN area.

Fig. 5. (a) Monthly deviation from the mean (anomaly) and ONI index; (b) The Pearson Correlation value of monthly rainfall against the ONI index for the IKN grid,
based on 20 years of IMERG data.

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Supari et al., 2018). The CC value between the ONI index and the rainfall anomaly varies monthly (Fig. 5b). Very high correlation val-
ues were observed for the drier months, especially September and October, with the CC values of −0.77 and −0.68. A strong correla-
tion between ENSO in the dry season was also found by another study using the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with
Station data (CHIRPS) data (Kurniadi et al., 2021). This pattern was also found by Supari et al. (2018). They found a larger negative
anomaly during the El-Nino period in the drier months (JJA and SON) for all parts of Indonesia. Thus, the El Nino phenomenon
greatly impacts the IKN in dry months. The dry months that coincide with the El Nino period will increase the potential for hydrome-
teorological disasters such as drought and forest fires.

3.3. Analysis of daily and extreme rainfall

Fig. 6a–b shows the Probability Density Function (PDF) and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) values calculated from
daily rainfall for the IMERG data grid in the IKN. The PDF value of dry days (R < 1 mm/day) and wet days (R > 1 mm/days) is
28.34% and 71.66%, respectively. Thus, the IKN is dominated by wet days due to many months with high rainfall intensity (Fig.
5). The dominance of wet days in the IKN will impact society and must be considered in infrastructure development in the region.
Although the percentage of very high-intensity rain events (>50 mm/day) is not too high, namely 0.75%, this must still be a con-
cern because of its significant impact (Zellou and Rahali, 2019).
The low percentage of rain with very high intensity (>50 mm/day) is also evident from the CDF percentile value (Fig. 6b). The
CDF values of the 85th, 95th, and 99th percentiles for the entire IKN grid are 15.73, 28.04, and 47.72 mm/day. Thus, rain with an in-
tensity above 47.72 mm/day will be very rare in all areas of the IKN. On the other hand, we found high variability when reviewing
the annual daily rainfall percentiles for the entire grid (Fig. 6c). Standard deviation values for each percentile are 3.31 mm/day (85th
percentile), 7.04 mm/day (95th percentile), and 20.18 mm/day (99th percentile). The large spatial variance for the 95th and 99th
percentiles indicates the spatial variation of extreme events in the IKN region; rainfall can be extreme in one area but not in another
(Mazzoglio et al., 2019). The 95th and 99th percentiles are indicators of extreme rain events (Myhre et al., 2019).
Fig. 7 shows the spatial distribution of the extreme index averages from two decades of IMERG data in the IKN. The distribution
of the precipitation amount-based index (R85p, R95p, and R99p) shows a similar pattern to annual precipitation (Fig. 2a). The in-
dex value in the offshore area is higher than in the mainland. High index values are observed on the mainland around the southern
part of Sepaku. High rainfall in the Sepaku area is dominated by low rain rates (1–10 mm/day), which can be seen from the fre-
quency-based index (Fig. 7d–g). The highest number of wet days (R1mm) was observed around Sepaku area, especially in the high-
lands, and the lowest was observed in the coastal area.On the other hand, the number of days with extreme rainfall intensity
(R50mm) shows a high value in the coastal and offshore areas. For moderate to heavy rainfall (R10mm and R20mm), high values
were observed on the coast and offshore and in the southern area of Sepaku, especially around the bay area. Thus, heavy and ex-
treme rain dominates precipitation on the coast and offshore areas.In contrast, the southern area of Sepaku, especially near the bay,
is dominated by moderate rain. High daily rainfall in offshore areas was also found in the Makassar strait based on TRMM data
(Alfahmi et al., 2019; Hirose et al., 2017) and Sumatra (Marzuki et al., 2022b; Mori et al., 2004). It is influenced by the shape, area,
and topographic conditions of the islands around the bay (Fujita et al., 2010). In addition, diurnal cycle mechanisms play an impor-
tant role in coastal areas of large tropical islands such as Kalimantan (Hirose et al., 2017; Yamanaka, 2016; Yoneyama and Zhang,
2020).
The distribution of the frequency-based index affects the distribution of the number of Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) and Consecu-
tive Dry Days (CDD) in the IKN (Fig. 7h–i). Larger CWD values were observed in areas with higher wet days (R1mm), namely on the
mainland. On the other hand, areas with higher CWD have lower CDD values. The high number of rainfall events on the mainland of
maritime islands is caused by the convergence of sea breezes, amplified by mountain-valley winds and further strengthened by the cu-
mulus coalescing process (Qian, 2008). From intensity-based indices, it was observed that the rainfall values for RX1day and RX5day
were high in the offshore and southern areas of Sepaku and Semboja sub-districts. In this area, the value of the 99th percentile is also
high (Fig. 6c). In addition, the SDII value in the IKN increases from the mainland to the southeast towards the offshore areas. This is

Fig. 6. (a) Probability Density Function (PDF), (b) Cumulative Density Function (CD); and (c) 85, 95, and 99 Percentile values of daily rainfall for the IKN grid based on
20 years of IMERG data.

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Fig. 7. The average of the extreme rain index for the IKN area from 20 years of IMERG data.

due to the high value of the precipitation amount in the area, followed by fewer wet days. A high SDII value is related to the potential
for extreme rain.
Fig. 8 shows the trend of each extreme index in the 29 IMERG data grids in the IKN. In general, we find a decreasing trend for
most of the extreme rainfall indices. The decrease in precipitation amount-based indices (R85p, R95p, and R99p) is consistent with
the decreasing trend in annual rainfall (Fig. 2). A decrease followed such a decrease in the frequency of rainy days with an intensity
of 20 and 50 mm. However, the decreasing trend was insignificant compared to the increase in the frequency of wet days (R1mm).
A significant increase in wet days increased the number of Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) and was followed by a decrease in the
number of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) in the IKN area. A decreasing trend was also observed in intensity-based indices: RX1day,
RX5day, and SDII. This trend is consistent with the projections of the PRCPTOT, RX1day, and R50mm indexes for the Kalimantan
region (Supari et al., 2020). A decreasing trend in RX1day was also observed for the Southeast Asian region based on the Asian Pre-
cipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) data for 57 years
(1951–2007) (Villafuerte and Matsumoto, 2015).On the other hand, the CDD trend shows the opposite pattern to that obtained by
the model (Supari et al., 2020; Tangang et al., 2018). This is possibly due to the high variability of extreme phenomena in Indonesia
and the limited period of data used (Supari et al., 2017). Although the trend is slightly different, the extreme index values obtained
for each year in the IKN are consistent with the extreme index values from the TRMM data during 1998–2005 (Supari et al., 2020).

3.4. Characteristics of diurnal cycle

The temporal resolution of IMERG (30 min) allows us to analyze the diurnal precipitation cycle in IKN. Before analyzing the diur-
nal cycle, we investigated the characteristics of rainfall duration (Fig. 9). Total Event (TE) from IMERG hourly data is grouped into
short-duration rain events (<3 h), medium-duration rain (3–6 h), and long-duration rain (>6 h). Overall, a high number of rainfall
events was observed over most of the southwest region of IKN and a small portion of the coast (Fig. 9a). The number of rain events
was larger on the mainland, consistent with the high value of R1mm in the mainland area, especially in areas with more complex
topography (Fig. 7d).
Rain in the IKN area is dominated by short-duration events (<3h), especially on the coastline, with a percentage reaching 60%.
Medium-duration rain events are more dominant in mainland areas, while long-duration events dominate offshore areas (Fig. 9c–d).
The high number of long-term offshore events corresponds to the region's high annual rainfall and R85p, R95p, and R99p indices
(Figs. 2a, 7a-c). Thus, although the number of events in the ocean is not large, it contributes greatly to the total rainfall due to its long
duration. This pattern was also observed in Sumatra (Marzuki et al., 2022b). This short duration of rain is generally convective rain,

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Fig. 8. The trend of extreme rain index from the IMERG data for the IKN grid.

Fig. 9. The number of total rain events (TE) with a threshold of 0.1 mm/h (a) and the percentage of rain with a duration of <3 h (b), 3–6 h (c), and >6 h (d) for the IKN
area, based on 20 years of IMERG data.

followed later by long-duration stratiform rain (Tokay and Short, 1996). This pattern of rain duration distribution is also related to
the migration of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) clouds in the maritime continent region (Marzuki et al., 2013), which greatly
influences the diurnal pattern of precipitation in the region (Marzuki et al., 2021; Xiao et al., 2018).
The diurnal cycle for each rain duration in the IKN is observed based on the peak values of PA, PI, and PF in the Local Standard
Time (LST) unit or UTC+8. We compared the PA, PI, and PF of IMERG with those of rain gauges at three locations (Fig. 10). In gen-
eral, the IMERG diurnal pattern for PA and PF is similar to those of AWS but different for PI values, as also found on Sumatra Island
(Marzuki et al., 2021, 2022b). The high rainfall variability in an IMERG grid representing 0.1° × 0.1° (∼11 km2) may cause this dis-
crepancy, which is also reflected in the high FAR value. The diurnal cycle of rainfall in Samarinda shows the best fit between IMERG

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Fig. 10. Comparison of PA, PF, and PI between IMERG and raingauge in Balikpapan (a,d,g), Semboja (b,e,h), and Samarinda (c,f, i). The red and black lines represent
the Fourier harmonic decomposition of the PA, PF, and PI values for rain gauge and IMERG data. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the
reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

and AWS, especially for PA and PF (Fig. 10). This is probably due to the location of AWS in Balikpapan and Semboja, located near the
coast (Fig. 1), where the topography and rainfall are more uniform.
The three locations generally have two peaks of PA, PF, and PI with different peak times. In the Balikpapan and Semboja areas, the
prominent PA peak was observed in the early morning (0400–0500 LST) and the second peak in the afternoon (1400–1500 LST). In
contrast, in Samarinda, the prominent peak of PA was found in the afternoon and a second peak in the morning (0400–0500 LST). The
PA peaks of IMERG and rain gauge are the same; the difference between the two is also not that significant. The diurnal pattern found
in this study is consistent with that reported by Wu et al. (2008) for the east coast of Borneo using TRMM data from 1998 to 2003. PA
values increase in the morning and decrease during the afternoon until the evening. In addition, the average rainfall decreases at
night (2000-0200 LST) (Wu et al., 2008). PA shows a strong relationship with PF, where the two peaks are similar. The prominent
peak of PF was observed at 020–0600 LST, and the second peak in the afternoon (1400–1500 LST). Although the three locations
showed two peaks of PA and PF in the Semboja and Balikpapan areas, the amplitude of the second peak in the afternoon was not so
clear. In the Samarinda area, the two peaks were quite large. The difference in location is likely to cause this pattern. Semboja and Ba-
likpapan are located near the coast, while Samarinda is located on land further from the coast. The PI also has two peaks, but they are
not so clear from the IMERG observations. The peaks are in the afternoon (1500 LST) and midnight-morning (2300-0300 LST). Mean-
while, IMERG shows that PI peaks are more dominant in the morning (0300–0400 LST), especially in Semboja and Samarinda (Fig.
10hi) and at midnight in Balikpapan (2300 LST).
Fig. 11 shows the spatial distribution of the PA, PF, and PI peak times for each rain duration. The peak time of PA for long-
duration rain (>6) was observed in the morning, while the peak for short-duration rain (<3h) was observed in the afternoon. This
explains the two PA peaks observed in the IKN (Fig. 10), where the first peak in the morning was from long-duration rain (>6) while
the second peak was dominated by short-duration rain (<3h). The peak time of the PA is increasingly shifting from early evening to
night for the mainland area of the island of Kalimantan, including Sepaku, which is a characteristic of the peak of rain in the maritime
island region (Qian et al., 2013; Yamanaka, 2016; Yamanaka et al., 2018). The PF peak also shows the contrasting time for short dura-
tion (<3h) and long duration (>6) rains in the coastline area, as observed for the PA peak. Although the long duration rains showed
a peak in the morning like PA, the peak comes later than the PA peak. This also agrees with the peaks of PA, and PF found on Sumatra
(Marzuki et al., 2021, 2022b). The peak of the PI for IKN is not localized at certain hours, indicating that the rain intensity distribu-
tion does not show a clear diurnal pattern.

3.5. Trends in hydrometeorological disaster

Fig. 12 shows the number of occurrences of hydrometeorological disasters in IKN and surrounding areas over the last 20 years.
Flood disasters have a constant recurrence frequency every year. Floods always occur yearly with an increasing trend for 20 years
(Fig. 12a). Some disaster data from BNPB geoportal data is equipped with locations up to the sub-district level and the cause of
the disaster. There have been several floods due to high-intensity rains in the Sepaku sub-district, but there is no information for

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Fig. 11. The peak time of PA, PF, and PI for rain with duration <3h (a–c), 3-6h (d–f), and >6h (g–i) in the IKN area.

Fig. 12. Number of a) floods, b) landslides, c) tornado, and d) forest fire events for Samarinda, Balikpapan, Kutai kartanegara, and North Penajam Paser areas, from
BNPB data.

Semboja. For example, the most recent flood event due to heavy rainfall in the Sepaku area was recorded on November 27, 2020.
Due to the absence of in situ measurements of rainfall, the cause of many floods cannot be known because of the lack of informa-
tion also from BNPB. In the future, the causes of this flood can be investigated with other data such as social media and newspa-
pers, as was done in Sumatra(Baranowski et al., 2020). Social media and newspapers in the capital city will increase since the area
has been designated as the location for the new capital city of Indonesia.
The most significant number of hydrometeorological disasters were forest fires (Fig. 12d). The highest number of events was ob-
served in 2016, totaling 70 events for the four regions. Although the number of forest fires is the highest, the frequency of these disas-
ters is very low and only observed in specific years. The peak of the incidence of forest fires is close to the peak of the ONI Index value
(Fig. 5). Thus, in addition to human factors, climate conditions can also trigger forest fire disasters (Miyamoto et al., 2021). Therefore,
the government should increase its vigilance against forest fires in the dry months often followed by El-Nino (Fig. 5b). Another hy-
drometeorological disaster observed was a tornado (Fig. 12c). Although the number of tornadoes is low, the frequency of occurrence
is high. Therefore, to anticipate the impact of this disaster, it is necessary to improve the quality and structure of buildings. Besides
impacting building structures, tornadoes also impact various sectors(Cahyanti et al., 2017; Susanto et al., 2020).

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Several landslides occurred in dry years, such as 2014 to 2016 (Fig. 12b). These two years are dry and are the El-Nino phase. The
dry phase is also indicated by the low annual extreme rainfall index (R95p and RR99p) (Fig. 8b–c). Furthermore, the frequency of
days with high rainfall intensity was also low that year (Fig. 8f–g). On the contrary, the CWD index's value increased that year (Fig.
8h). CWD values not affected by El-Nino are also found over southeast peninsular India (Revadekar and Kulkarni, 2008). Thus, the
landslide disaster in the IKN is strongly influenced by the duration of the rain, not only by the intensity. This also explains the increas-
ing trend of flood events even though the trend of several extreme rain indices is decreasing. Soil structure may also influence the
landslide, but it is beyond the scope of this paper. A more detailed study of the relationship between hydrometeorological factors and
soil structure in the IKN that triggers landslides should be conducted in the future.

4. Conclusions
The annual rainfall in IKN varies from 2584.0 mm/year to 2925.2 mm/year, with a decreasing trend in the last twenty years. This
trend was associated with the decrease in the most extreme rain index, including the R85p, R95, R99p, R20mm, R50mm, CDD, RX1-
day, RX5day, and SDII indices. On the other hand, two extreme indices, R1mm and CWD, show an increasing trend in the last twenty
years, consistent with the increasing number of floods and landslide events from BNPB data. The number of consecutive wet days
seems to contribute more to floods and landslides than other extreme rain indices in IKN. Rainfall at IKN also shows robust seasonal
and diurnal variations. The peak rainfall occurs in November–December and March–April, while the driest conditions occur in Au-
gust–October. El-Nino can exacerbate this dry season, which increases the potential for droughts and forest fires, as in 2016. At IKN,
rain is most frequent in the early morning (0400–0500 LST), which contributes to the high precipitation amount at this time. In
Samarinda, a secondary peak was observed in the afternoon (1400–1500 LST). This diurnal variation is influenced by duration,
topography, and diurnal land-sea rainfall migration. The trend and variability of precipitation in this study should be considered in
the development of IKN so that this city is resilient to hydrometeorological disasters. However, more detailed research on the thresh-
old of rainfall intensity and duration that will trigger hydrometeorological disasters in IKN still needs to be done. The rainfall thresh-
old value must be related to hydrological modeling related to water absorption, flood event data with high spatial resolution, and soil
structure in IKN.

Authentic_Statement
1. The material is the author's original work, which has not been previously published elsewhere.
2. The paper is not currently being considered for publication elsewhere.
3. The paper reflects the author's research and analysis wholly and truthfully.
4. The paper properly credits the meaningful contributions of co-authors and co-researchers.
5. The results are appropriately placed in the context of prior and existing research.
6. All sources used are correctly disclosed (correct citation). Quotation marks and proper references must indicate copying of text.
7. All authors have been personally and actively involved in substantial work leading to the paper and will take public
responsibility for its content.
The violation of the Ethical Statement rules may result in severe consequences.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
influence the work reported in this paper.

Data availability
Data will be made available on request.

Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) for providing the data for research
purposes. We also thank the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for providing IMERG data. The authors would like to
thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers who provided valuable suggestions and comments to the earlier version of the manu-
script.

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