Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2021) 144:625–641

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03527-x

ORIGINAL PAPER

Spatio-temporal rainfall variability of equatorial small island:

case study Bintan Island, Indonesia
Ida Narulita 1,2 & Faiz R. Fajary 3 & M. Ridho Syahputra 3 & Eko Kusratmoko 1 & M. R. Djuwansah 2

Received: 29 April 2020 / Accepted: 4 January 2021 / Published online: 22 February 2021
# The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, AT part of Springer Nature 2021

Abstract
The water resources of Bintan Island depend much on rainfall since the impervious granitic basement that bears a low water
storage capacity dominates the geology of Bintan Island. Water demand in Bintan is increasing due to both population and
economic growth. This paper aims to determine the spatial and temporal rainfall variability over Bintan Island using the daily
corrected-CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) version two (v2.0) dataset to a ground-
based observation dataset (Kijang station) using quantile-base bias correction for period 1 January 1981–31 August 2018. For the
analysis process, we used monthly corrected-CHIRPS, NINO 3.4 anomaly index, the DMI (dipole mode index), zonal and
meridional wind, and specific humidity from January 1981 to December 2017. Semi-annual, annual, and interannual variations
influence monthly rainfall amounts over the island. Two peaks representing equatorial and monsoonal patterns characterize the
temporal variability of rainfall. Spatially, the southern part of the island receives more rainfall than the northern part especially in
MAM and SON related to the more convergence of moisture. The effects of interannual variation, ENSO (El Niño-Southern
Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean dipole), vary with season. ENSO contributes more to rainfall variability than IOD during the
period of study.

1 Introduction scale. The interannual variability is affected by global climate

Indonesia is located between two continents (Asia and
Australia) and two oceans (Pacific and Indian Oceans) so that
the climate phenomena occurring on both continents and
oceans affect the Indonesian’s climate. Indonesian archipela-
go lies along the equator consisting of more than 17,000
islands surrounded by the ocean; accordingly, the rainfall var-
iability is also influenced by the ocean and the atmosphere
interactions (Ummenhofer et al. 2009). Generally, rainfall var-
iability in Indonesia is influenced by the monsoon systems,
the Australian summer monsoon and the Asian summer mon-
soon (Aldrian and Susanto 2003). However, there is a differ-
ent rainfall variability from intraseasonal to interannual time
* Ida Narulita
ida.narulita@lipi.go.id; idanarulita2018@gmail.com
1
Department of Geography, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural
Science, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia
2
Research Center for Geotechnology, Indonesian Institute of
Sciences, Bandung, Indonesia
3
Atmospheric Sciences Research Group, Institut Teknologi Bandung,
Bandung, Indonesia
phenomena, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (Aldrian and Susanto 2003;
As-syakur et al. 2014; Hendrawan et al. 2019; Alsepan and
Minobe 2020; Qian 2020).
The previous studies (Aldrian and Susanto 2003) divided
Indonesia into three climatic regions based on the annual rain-
fall cycle: the monsoonal (monsoonal pattern), the semi-
monsoonal (equatorial pattern), and the anti-monsoonal (local
pattern) regions, respectively.
Indonesia’s seasonal rainfall variability is strongly caused
by Asian and Australian monsoons (Chang et al. 2005), gen-
erally characterized by dry season in June to October and rainy
season in November to March. Since the archipelago is situ-
ated along the equator, Indonesia also has two rainfall peaks in
April–May and October–November, associated with the inter-
tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) movement (Aldrian and
Susanto 2003). Besides, the intraseasonal climate phenomena
influencing the region, particularly at the northern part of
Indonesia, are cold surge and Borneo vortex, and at the equa-
tor such as Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The interannual
phenomena that affect the archipelago are ENSO and IOD.
Our study area, Bintan Island, is in the semi-monsoonal
region, in which the rainfall pattern has two peaks on the
626
annual rainfall cycle. Bintan Island is also situated in the west-
ern part of Indonesia. Many climatic phenomena of
intraseasonal to annual variation such as MJO, Borneo vortex,
cold surge, and monsoon, or the interannual variation such as
ENSO and IOD occur (Xavier et al. 2020). Also, the Bukit
Barisan mountain chain at Sumatra significantly affects the
wind flow and humidity transport in this region. In January–
February, Bintan Island water becomes part of the colder sea
surface temperature (SST) region comparing with any equa-
torial region in Indonesia, originated from the impact of cold
tongue influence of winter monsoon occurred along the
Vietnam coast and conveys through the South China Sea
(Kusuma et al. 2017; Lubis et al. 2017). The Borneo Vortex
and cold surges are the disturbances during seasonal cycles
and induce another intraseasonal rainfall variability around
Bintan island, which normally occur at the beginning of the
year (Xavier et al. 2020). The South China Sea’s diurnal rain-
fall variability caused by strong cold surge transport absolute
vorticity and water vapor from higher tropical latitudes to the
equatorial region (Dang-Quang et al. 2016). Apart from the
above climatic phenomena, there is still the MJO, whose
elapsed time in this area is difficult to determine (Xavier
et al. 2020; Yang et al. 2019).
Several previous regional studies indicated that Indonesia’s
rainfall anomalies are generally influenced by global-scale cli-
mate variability, namely ENSO in the Pacific Ocean, and IOD in
the Indian Ocean. El Niño (La Niña) is characterized by above
(below) normal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the
eastern (western) Pacific region (Trenberth et al. 2002). IOD is
an SST anomaly between the western and eastern parts of the
Indian Ocean (Behera et al. 2008). In general, when positive
(negative) IOD has occurred, Indonesia’s rainfall decreases
(increases) significantly (Hamada et al. 2002; Nur’utami and
Hidayat 2016). The relative influence of the IOD and ENSO
on Indonesian rainfall varies according to the season. When
ENSO and IOD activities and systems occur throughout the
year, each activity or system affect varies throughout the year
and places (Boer and Faqih 2004; D’Arrigo and Smerdon
2008). The concurrent ENSO and IOD events will increase the
rainfall anomaly in Indonesia (Nur’utami and Hidayat 2016).
The ENSO phenomenon greatly affects the southern Indonesia
but not the northwest (Aldrian et al. 2007), where this research
was conducted. The low correlation of ENSO and IOD with
western maritime continent rainfall (including Bintan Island) is
caused mainly by the wind–terrain interaction involving the
Sumatran and Malay Peninsula mountains, rather than by the
effect of SST (Chang et al. 2020).
Bintan island is classified as a small island according to the
Republic of Indonesia (RI) Law Number 27 of 2007 and
UNESCO classification (Falkland 2002) that classes the small
island as an island with an area of < 2000 km2. However,
Bintan Island is the largest island in the Riau archipelago to
where the capital of Riau Islands Province was recently
I. Narulita et al.
relocated in 2002 after the RI Law no. 25 of 2002 from the
more populated neighboring Batam island which need spatial
restoration. Since RI Law no. 44 of 2007, the island is also a
part of the newly developed free trade zone (FTZ). This prog-
ress will cause population increase as well as economic activity.
Although rainfall is quite high, the small catchment area and
geologic properties of the island (Kusnama et al. 1994) delimit
water resource availability. These limitations devote vulnerabil-
ity to extreme conditions due to ENSO and IOD. Because of the
condition, the information about the rainfall variability on the
island is crucial for water resource management. Currently, the
availability of water on Bintan Island is declining, while water
demand is increasing (Santoso 2015). The purpose of this study
is to determine the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall,
which will be valuable information for water resource manage-
ment on Bintan Island. Previous studies (As-syakur et al. 2013;
Nur’utami and Hidayat 2016; Qian 2020; Supari et al. 2018)
were generally particularized on the influence of interannual
phenomena over a wider extend of the study area using the
lower spatial resolution (> 0.1°) data. This study focused on
Bintan Island using a higher spatial resolution (0.05°) daily
rainfall dataset, addressed the ongoing developments on the
island of Bintan, which are related to the limited water resource
availability and the increase in water demand.
This paper consists of five sections, with the next section
devoted to methodology. Sections 3, 4, and 5 are results, dis-
cussion, and conclusion, respectively.
2 Methodology
2.1 Study area
The Bintan Island (Fig. 1) is located between 0°49′ and 1°15.1′
N and between 104°13.3′ and 104°41.3′E. The island has an
advantageous position as a cruise port since it localized at the
junction of the busy international shipping lines: The South
China Sea, the Malacca Strait, the Sunda Strait, and the
Karimata Strait. The area covers about 1173 km2. The popula-
tion of the island is the second largest in Riau Island after Batam
Island. It is home to about 363,370 population. Its growth rate,
around 2%, is greater than Indonesian’s average which is about
1.3% (BPS 2017). The population and economic growth cause
the increasing of water demand. The geology of Bintan Island is
dominated by impervious granite rocks that have a low water
storage capacity (Kusnama et al. 1994). Practically, there is no
groundwater contained within the granite. Rocks could retain
only a small proportion of infiltrated rainwater into soils. In
contrast, the more considerable part of rainwater transforms
directly into the overland flow or late run-off. By limited island
surface, the residence time of surface water on the island is short
and soon will flow out to the sea. All reservoirs of the isle dry
out after 2 weeks of consecutive no rain days. Therefore,
Spatio-temporal rainfall variability of equatorial small island: case study Bintan Island, Indonesia
Fig. 1 The study area, Bintan Island. Color gradation shows elevation, and a yellow point shows location of Kijang station (DEM data used in this study
was derived from SRTM data obtained from https://www.usgs.gov/)
rainfall variability analysis is very important for Bintan Island,
as the base for the limited water resources allocation planning.
Identification of the factors causing rainfall variability on
Bintan Island is vital for water resource management.
2.2 Data
The data used in this study cover the period from 1981 to
2017, consisting of land observation (Kijang station) and
CHIRPS daily and monthly rainfall data, ENSO and IOD
indices, zonal and meridional wind, and specific humidity.
The daily rainfall data for ground observation recorded at
Kijang station (0°55.092′N; 104°31.8′E) were obtained from
the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and
Geophysics (BMKG). CHIRPS daily rainfall dataset, version
2 (v2.0) (Funk et al. 2015), developed by Famine Early
Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET, is accessible at
https://data.chc.ucsb.edu/products/CHIRPS-2.0/). The
627
CHIRPS data has a spatial resolution of 0.05°, which
includes 111 grid cells for Bintan Islands.
As an ENSO index, we used the monthly NINO 3.4 anom-
aly from HadlSST1 (accessible at https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_
wgsp/Timeseries/Nino34/). The NINO 3.4 index defined as
the difference SST anomaly, located at 160°–120°W, 5°S–
5°N. The NINO 3.4 indices time series obtained from the
Climate Prediction Center. For the IOD index, we use the
DMI (dipole mode index), defined as the SST anomaly
difference between the regions of 50°E–70° E, 10°S–
10°N and 90° E–110°E, 10°S–equator. The DMI time
series obtained from the Low-latitude Climate Prediction
Research (accessible at http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/
research/d1/iod/e/iod/about_iod.html). We used this index
because it is suggested by many researchers for rainfall
analysis of Indonesia (Herring et al. 2016; Mardiansyah
et al. 2018; Hendrawan et al. 2019; Amirudin et al.
2020). Monthly zonal and meridional wind and specific
628
humidity were obtained from ERA5 (https://www.ecmwf.
int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5).
2.3 Method
2.3.1 Bias correction
CHIRPS contains errors comparing with ground-based observa-
tion since it is not a direct rainfall measurement (Wu et al. 2012).
CHIRPS dataset is better in spatial and temporal resolution than
other satellite datasets (Dinku et al. 2018). We correct the daily
CHIRPS dataset to Kijang station observation using the bias
correction method which is adopted from Inomata et al. (2011;
2012). The difference from the ordinary bias correction
(Inomata et al. 2011; 2012) method is that we exclude zero
values of rainfall of the cumulative distribution function (CDF)
and use non-exceedance probability (NEP) ≥ 95%
(Anagnostopoulou and Tolika 2012), instead of NEP > 99.5%.
The modification reason is that zero precipitation represents a
long segment in the CDF while it means non-entity for bias
correction. With NEP ≥ 99.5%, CDF represents a very limited
number of extreme values and excludes only a few outliers.
However, with NEP ≥ 95%, CDF represents much better ex-
treme values of the time series data.
The initial step in this method is to calculate the correction
factor for each quantile (aq, q = 0,0.1, …, 1) from CDF of
ranked daily rainfall time series. Only non-zero values of rain-
fall have been used to provide the CDF. The correction factors
were obtained from two rainfall time series sourced from the
ground-based station and CHIRPS on the grid point closest to
the station. Then, the correction factors were applied to all grid
points of CHIRPS over Bintan Island.
Mathematically, the correction factor is written
R STATIONq
aq ¼ ð1Þ
R CHIRPSq
where aq is the correction factor of the qth quantile, R _
STATIONq is the ground-based station rainfall value at the qth
quantile, and R _ CHIRPSq is the CHIRPS rainfall value at the
qth quantile.
Calculation of correction factors is distinguished for ex-
treme and non-extreme values of daily rainfall. For extreme
values, data segment with a probability of the greatest 5% of
all data is separated. Next, the correction factor of extreme
value is calculated for each quantile on this data segment.
For non-extreme values, data are monthly separated and
ranked. We exclude zero values in the calculation. The cor-
rection factor is the ratio of the non-extreme monthly quantile
value of field observation to that of CHIRPS, calculated every
month. The obtained correction factor applied for the CHIRPS
rainfall data between the rainfall value in a quantile and the
values below it to get the corrected CHIRPS value.
I. Narulita et al.
For extreme values, the equation is as follows:
R CHIRPS CORq ¼ aq  R CHIRPSq ð2Þ
While for non-extreme rainfall values, the equation is as
follows:
R CHIRPS CORqm ¼ aqm  R CHIRPSqm ð3Þ
where R _ CHIRPS _ COR q is the CHIRPS rainfall
corrected on a quantile-q. R _ CHIRPS _ COR qm is the
CHIRPS rainfall corrected on a quantile-q and month-q
(m = 1, 2, …, 12).
2.3.2 Wavelet analysis
We use wavelet analysis (Torrence and Compo 1998; Cazelles
et al. 2008) to investigate the climatic phenomena influences on
rainfall variability in the study area. The wavelet approach con-
siders the time-series dataset, such as rainfall data series, as a
signal. The analysis applies to a non-stationary system or short-
lived transient component of the system. “Mother wavelets”
consists of transforming the signals over a dilated and translated
function with two parameters: time position (τ) and wavelet
scale (α). The mathematic expression of wavelets is
1  t−τ 
ψα;τ ðt Þ ¼ pffiffiffiffi ψ ð4Þ
α α
Whereas the wavelet transform expression of a time series x(t)-
for a certain chosen mother wavelet is
1 þ∞  t−τ  þ∞
W x ðα;τÞ ¼ pffiffiffiffi ∫−∞ xðt Þψ* dt ¼ ∫−∞ xðt Þψ*α;τ ðt Þdt ð5Þ
α α
where * denotes the complex conjugate form.
As the mother wavelet ψ0(t), we choose Morlet wavelet,
consisting of a plane wave modulated by a Gaussian:
t2
ψ0 ðt Þ ¼ π− 4 eiω0 t e− 2
1
ð6Þ
where ω0 is the non-dimensional frequency, taken to be 6 to
satisfy the admissibility condition.
2.3.3 Correlation
Correlation analysis was performed to know the relationship
between the ENSO and IOD phenomena to rainfall over
Bintan Island. Pearson correlation method has been applied
for measuring the relationship between monthly ENSO or
IOD index and monthly rainfall anomaly. This method has
been applied in many previous studies in Indonesia (Lestari
et al. 2018; Nur'utami and Hidayat 2016; Mardiansyah et al.
2018). The significance level of correlation has been mea-
sured by the Student’s t method.
Spatio-temporal rainfall variability of equatorial small island: case study Bintan Island, Indonesia
2.3.4 Composite analysis
The seasonal impact of ENSO and IOD evaluated using com-
posite analysis. The composite analysis is written by Yuan and
Yan (2013):
Xi
X COMPOSITE ¼ ∑ni¼1
n
X is the monthly rainfall anomaly that will be composited
according to Tables 1 and 2, n is the number of monthly events
(El Niño, La Niña, IOD+, and IOD−). The significance level of
composite analysis is performed by a two-tailed Student’s t test.
2.3.5 Moisture transport and moisture convergence
We have calculated vertically integrated moisture transport
(VIMT) from surface to 100 hPa (troposphere) using equation
developed by Zhou (2005):
! 1 1000 !
B q ¼ ∫850 q V dp
g We used the bias correction method in this study to correct and
! validate the CHIRPS data against the field observation data.
B q is the VIMT (kg m−1 s−1), g is the gravity (ms−2), q is the
!
specific humidity (kg kg−1), V is the horizontal wind (ms−1),
and p is the pressure (hPa).
Furthermore, the VIMT convergence calculation is carried
out using this equation:
 
! ! ∂Bqx ∂Bqy
−∇H  Bq ¼ − þ ð9Þ
dx dy
! !
− ∇ H  B q is the horizontal convergence of VIMT
(kg m−2 s−1) with positive value means convergence.
2.3.6 Multiple linear regression
This method (Wilks 2011) was used to estimate relative con-
tributions of ENSO and IOD to the rainfall variability. We
Table 1 Months of ENSO used in this study based on thresholds in Fig. 7a
Season El Niño
DJF Dec-1982, Jan-1983, Feb-1983, Jan-1987, Feb-1987, Dec-1987,
Dec-1991, Jan-1992, Feb-1992, Dec-1994, Jan-1995, Dec-1997,
Jan-1998, Feb-1998, Dec-2002, Dec-2006, Dec-2009, Jan-2010,
Feb-2010, Dec-2015, Jan-2016, Feb-2016
MAM Mar-1983, Apr-1983, May-1983, Mar-1987, Mar-1992, Apr-1992,
May-1992, Mar-1998, Mar-2010, May-2015, Mar-2016, Apr-2016
JJA Jun-1987, Jul-1987, Aug-1987, Jun-1997, Jul-1997, Aug-1997,
Jun-2015, Jul-2015, Aug-2015
SON Sep-1982, Oct-1982, Nov-1982, Nov-1986, Sep-1987, Oct-1987,
Nov-1987, Nov-1991, Nov-1994, Sep-1997, Oct-1997, Nov-1997,
Oct-2002, Nov-2002, Nov-2009, Sep-2015, Oct-2015, Nov-2015
629
estimated the contribution factor of ENSO and IOD to rainfall
which is defined as
Y ¼ B0 þ B1X 1 þ B2X 2 þ ϵ ð10Þ
where Y is the dependent variable (rainfall anomaly), X1
(NINO3.4 Anomaly) and X2 (DMI) are the first and second
ð7Þ independent variables, respectively. B1 and B2 are regres-
sion coefficients of first and second independent variable,
respectively, B0 is the regression constant, and ϵ is the
errors. In this study, X1 and X2 have been normalized
(the mean value removal and divided by the standard de-
viation), so B0, B1, and B2 have the same dimension as
rainfall anomaly. Significant level at 95% was calculated
using a two-tailed Student’s t test.
3 Result
3.1 CHIRPS data correction
ð8Þ
Three CDF daily rainfall data sets (raw CHIRPS, field-based
observation, corrected CHIRPS) (Fig. 2) and calculated
monthly climatology (Fig. 3) were used for bias correction
and qualitative validation. CDF curves show that the
ground-based observation data (green line) represents the
higher probability of lower daily rainfall, whereas CHIRPS
data (blue line) represents a higher probability for higher daily
rainfall (Fig. 2). The bias-corrected CHIRPS (red line) shows
the daily rainfall distribution much more similar to that of the
ground-based observation. Figure 3 shows that the monthly
climatology of rainfall amount in March, May, August,
October, November, and December of station data (green line)
is more remarkable differences comparing with CHIRPS data
(blue line), but smaller differences in February and July, and
almost equal in January, April, June, and September. The
monthly climatology of the corrected CHIRPS (red line)
La Niña
Dec-1984, Dec-1988, Jan-1989, Feb-1989, Dec-1998, Jan-1999,
Feb-1999, Dec-1999, Jan-2000, Feb-2000, Dec-2007, Jan-2008,
Feb-2008, Jan-2009, Dec-2010, Jan-2011, Feb-2011, Dec-2011
May-1988, Mar-1989, Apr-1989, Mar-2000, Mar-2008
Jun-1988, Jul-1988, Aug-1988, Aug-2010,
Oct-1983, Nov-1983, Nov-1984, Sep-1988, Oct-1988, Nov-1988,
Oct-1998, Nov-1998, Oct-1999, Nov-1999, Sep-2007, Oct-2007,
Nov-2007, Sep-2010, Oct-2010, Nov-2010, Nov-2011
630
Fig. 2 Cumulative distribution function (CDF) of daily rainfall over
Kijang station grid point from CHIRPS (blue line), ground-based
observation (green line), and corrected CHIRPS (red line)
shows a closer value with the Kijang observation station rain-
fall in January, March, July, and September until December
(Fig. 3). We use the corrected CHIRPS as the proxy of obser-
vation data for further analysis.
3.2 Analysis of the corrected CHIRPS
Figure 3 shows that monthly rainfall over Kijang has two
peaks, in May and November for ground observation (green
line), and in April and December for CHIRPS and corrected
CHIRPS (blue and red lines, respectively). In addition, there is
a minor peak in July, which is the local specific phenomenon
of the station grid point (see also Fig. 4) that not always ap-
pears in the other grids. Figure 3 also shows the major peaks in
April–May or significant increase in September–November
could represent the northward and southward movements of
the ITCZ, respectively (Davidson et al. 1984; Hassim and
Timbal 2019). Bintan Island is situated very close to the
Fig. 3 Monthly climatology of rainfall over Kijang station grid point
from CHIRPS (blue line), ground-based observation (green line), and
corrected CHIRPS (red line)
I. Narulita et al.
equator; therefore, ITCZ crosses over this island in a few days
after it crosses the equator on March 20th and a few days
before September 22nd. ITCZ cross over the island impacts
rainfall increase which would happen during April–May and
September–October. The rainfall peak of ITCZ shifting im-
pact may clearly appear on April–May since it is situated at
the transition of wet to dry season when the rainfall amount is
normally declining, while the rainfall peak on September–
October would more covert since it will be followed by high
rainfall on November–December–January caused by boreal
winter monsoon (Chang et al. 2005), Borneo vortex, and cold
surge (Xavier et al. 2020).
The temporal variability of rainfall over Bintan Island (Fig.
4) shows a common pattern characterized by two peaks. Some
of the grid points show more marked equatorial characteristic
than the others, particularly shown in April and May by large
variation among grids. It shows that some area over Bintan
receives more rainfall than the others in those months.
Meanwhile, the other area with less rainfall in those months,
the monsoonal type, is clearer than the equatorial type. In
another point of view, two zones of rainfall patterns may ap-
pear over Bintan Island, as shown in Fig. 5.
The spatial rainfall variability over Bintan Island for each
season (Fig. 5) exhibits two rainfall zones, namely the north-
ern part and the southern part zones. The southern part of
Bintan Island shows more rainfall than the northern part in
MAM, JJA, and SON, whereas in the wet months (DJF),
spatial rainfall variation has not clearly appeared, because
high moisture convergence over the island during DJF is ac-
cordingly dense that high precipitation evenly distributed all
over the islands. These patterns are consistent with more mois-
ture convergence patterns over the southern part of the island
(Fig. 5 b and d). The southern part shows more equatorial type
of rainfall with the peaks of rainfall in MAM and SON.
Meanwhile, the northern part shows more monsoonal type
with a peak in DJF.
3.2.1 Wavelet analysis
The area-averaged of monthly corrected CHIRPS rainfall data
from January 1981 to December 2017 have been normalized
(Fig. 6a) to produce a power spectrum (Fig. 6b) using wavelet
analysis. The global wavelet spectrum (Fig. 6c) shows that the
variability of rainfall over Bintan Island is affected by three
phenomena with different cycle periods of 6 months (semi-
annual), 1 year (annual), and 4–8 years (interannual). ITCZ
movement influences the semi-annual variability. Monsoons
(Chang et al. 2005) influence the annual variability. ENSO
and IOD influence interannual variability (As-syakur et al.
2014; Supari et al. 2018). The annual cycle is the most dom-
inant signal in rainfall variability followed by semi-annual and
interannual cycles.
Spatio-temporal rainfall variability of equatorial small island: case study Bintan Island, Indonesia 631

Fig. 4 Monthly climatology of

rainfall over all grid points over
Bintan Island from the corrected
CHIRPS

3.2.2 Correlation, composite analysis, and multiple linear
regression
Figure 7 a shows the monthly NINO 3.4 anomaly time
series from January 1981 to December 2017. El Niño (La
Niña) events are indicated by NINO 3.4 anomaly more
(less) than + 1(− 1). Table 1 shows the occurrence of El
Niño and La Niña events for each season and Fig. 7b
shows the monthly DMI time series of the same period as
Fig. 7a. Positive (negative) IOD are indicated by DMI
more (less) than the mean value + (−) the standard devia-
tion. The occurrence of positive and negative IOD is
shown in Table 2. The ENSO and IOD indices in Fig. 7
were used for illustrating a correlation between ENSO (or
IOD) and rainfall anomalies. The composite analysis used
the monthly rainfall anomaly as listed in Tables 1 and 2.
ENSO and IOD are related to the rainfall variability of
Indonesia (Ashok et al. 2001; Hamada et al. 2002;

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of

seasonal rainfall accumulation
(shading) (mm/month) from
corrected CHIRPS over Bintan
Island in a DJF, b MAM, c JJA,
and d SON. Overlaid by moisture
transport (arrows) [kg m−1 s−1].
Exceedance moisture
convergence than the right corner
value (kg m−2 s−1) in each panel is
hatched. Convergence value is
positive for all season over Bintan
Island
632
Fig. 6 The normalized of area-
averaged from all grid points over
Bintan Island of monthly rainfall
of corrected CHIRPS data from
January 1981 to December 2017,
b Wavelet power spectrum of a,
and c global wavelet spectrum of
a
Hendon 2003; Aldrian and Susanto 2003; Aldrian et al.
2007; P. Wu et al. 2013).
The spatial correlation between monthly rainfall on Bintan
Island and the monthly ENSO index for each season (Fig. 8)
exhibits almost no correlation between the ENSO index and
rainfall in DJF. In the MAM, JJA, and SON, there is a nega-
tive correlation. Sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA)
around Bintan Island showed the normal value in SON and
positive value in DJF during El Niño event (Iskandar et al.
2020). The positive SSTA during El Niño will cause convec-
tion in this area which induces more rainfall. This shows that
even though El Niño happens, in Bintan Island, the rainfall
amount of southwestern part in DJF was still above normal.
The high rainfall in DJF during El Niño indicates that the
rainfall variability of Bintan island is more induced by the
peak of North East monsoon (Jiang and Li 2018; Yang et al.
2019; Qian 2020) than ENSO.
The spatial correlation values are consistent with the com-
posite rainfall anomaly results in Fig. 9, except in the MAM
season. In MAM season, the correlation and significance level
are weak, but the seasonal composite analysis of the rainfall
Table 2 Months of IOD used in this study based on thresholds in Fig. 7b
Positive IOD
DJF Jan-1988, Dec-1997, Jan-1998, Feb-1998
MAM May-1991, Apr-1994, May-1994, Mar-2010, Apr-2010, Mar-2011,
Mar-2017, Apr-2017, May-2017
JJA Jul-1982, Aug-1982, Jun-1983, Jul-1983, Aug-1983, Jul-1987,
Aug-1987, Jul-1991, Jun-1994, Jul-1994, Aug-1994, Jul-1997,
Aug-1997, Aug-2006, Aug-2007, Jul-2008, Jul-2011, Aug-2011,
Jul-2012, Aug-2012, Jul-2015, Aug-2015, Jun-2017, Jul-2017,
Aug-2017
SON Sep-1982, Oct-1982, Nov-1982, Sep-1987, Oct-1987, Sep-1994,
Oct-1994, Nov-1994, Sep-1997, Oct-1997, Nov-1997, Sep-2002,
Oct-2002, Sep-2006, Oct-2006, Nov-2006, Sep-2007, Sep-2011,
Oct-2011, Nov-2011, Sep-2012, Sep-2015, Oct-2015, Nov-2015,
Nov-2017
I. Narulita et al.
anomaly is highly negative during El Niño. The highly
negative is caused by less rainfall due to the transition sea-
son and getting lower due to the El Niño event. When El
Niño occurred, the moisture transport is absent (see Fig.
10). The low correlation and weak significance level of
MAM are due to the presence of years, in 1992 and 2010,
of positive rainfall anomaly that happened when El Niño
occurs. Very high positive rainfall anomalies have occurred
at that time, while many other El Niño year’s events have
negative rainfall anomalies. In the DJF season, when El
Niño occurs, the rainfall anomaly on Bintan Island is pos-
itive over the south-west of Bintan (Fig. 9). This shows that
even though El Niño happens, in Bintan Island, the amount
of rainfall in DJF was still above normal over the south-
western part of Bintan. We proposed the moisture transport
and positive anomaly of moisture convergence as the phys-
ical mechanism and explanation for DJF rainfall (Fig. 10),
most likely because, in DJF, many climatic phenomena
provoking high rainfall, such as maximum boreal monsoon,
cold surge, cold tongue, and Borneo vortex occur beside El
Niño in this region.
Negative IOD
Jan-1983, Feb-1983, Jan-1985, Feb-1985, Dec-1985, Feb-1992,
Dec-1996, Jan-2001, Feb-2005, Feb-2015
Mar-1983, Apr-1983, Mar-1985, May-1988, Mar-1989, Apr-1989,
May-1989, Apr-1990, Mar-1992, Apr-1992, May-1992, Apr-1996,
Apr-2002, May-2004, Mar-2005, May-2013
Jul-1981, Aug-1981, Aug-1984, Jun-1985, Aug-1985, Jul-1986,
Jun-1989, Jun-1990, Jun-1992, Jul-1992, Aug-1992, Jun-1996,
Jul-1996, Aug-1996, Aug-1998, Jun-2004, Jun-2013, Jun-2016,
Jul-2016
Sep-1981, Oct-1981, Sep-1984, Oct-1984, Nov-1984, Sep-1992,
Oct-1992, Sep-1996, Oct-1996, Nov-1996, Oct-1998, Nov-1998,
Sep-2005, Nov-2010
Spatio-temporal rainfall variability of equatorial small island: case study Bintan Island, Indonesia
Fig. 7 a Monthly NINO 3.4 Anomaly as an ENSO index with red (blue)
dots showing El Niño (La Niña) by threshold +(−) 1, and b monthly DMI
(Dipole Mode Index) with red (blue) bars showing positive (negative)
IOD by threshold mean value +(−) standard deviation of the index.
Those indices are from January 1981 to December 2017
In the following seasons, MAM, JJA, and SON anomalous
rainfall on Bintan Island are negative, meaning that in the
MAM, JJA, and SON seasons during El Niño, rainfall of
Bintan Island is decreasing. Figure 10 shows that during
MAM, JJA, and SON when El Niño occurred, moisture trans-
port anomaly is negative (more divergence)
When the ENSO index is negative (La Niña), the rainfall
anomaly in all seasons on Bintan Island is positive, which
during the La Niña occurrence, more rainfall occurs
Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of
correlation coefficient between
corrected CHIRPS anomaly and
ENSO index. Hatching indicates
significance at 95%
633
throughout the season on Bintan Island. It is consistent with
moisture convergence anomaly, except in DJF.
Figure 11 shows the spatial correlation between rainfall and
the IOD index over Bintan Island. A positive correlation be-
tween rainfall and IOD occurs in the DJF and MAM, while in
JJA and SON, correlation is negative. The spatial correlation
between rainfall and the IOD index is related to the composite
result of the rainfall anomaly of Bintan Island. Figure 12
shows that during the positive IOD in MAM, rainfall anomaly
is positive, meaning that more rainfall occurs on Bintan
Island. Whereas during the positive IOD in DJF, JJA, and
SON, the anomaly of rainfall is negative, meaning that rainfall
on Bintan Island was less.
In the negative IOD years, the negative anomaly of rainfall
occurs in all seasons (DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON) meaning
that the rainfall on Bintan Island was less all the year. In the
JJA, the rainfall with a weak negative correlation (Fig. 11)
means that the rainfall anomaly was negative (Fig. 12). The
negative anomaly of monthly rainfall during negative IOD
associates with zero anomalies of moisture transport conver-
gence (Fig. 13).
The relative contribution of ENSO and IOD on rainfall
over Bintan is shown by MLR analysis in Fig. 14. For all
seasons (Fig. 14 top panel), ENSO has higher contribution
(almost two times) to rainfall anomaly than IOD. The result
of MLR of ENSO and IOD regression coefficients to monthly
634 I. Narulita et al.

Fig. 9 Composite of corrected

CHIRPS anomaly (mm/month)
during El Niño (left panel) and La
Niña (right panel) for each season.
The composite was conducted by
criteria as in Table 1 and Fig. 7a
Spatio-temporal rainfall variability of equatorial small island: case study Bintan Island, Indonesia
Fig. 10 Composite of moisture transport anomaly (arrow) [kg m-1 s-1]
and its convergence (shading) anomaly [kg m-2 s-1] during El Niño
(first and third column) and La Niña (second and forth column) for
each season (rows). The composite was conducted by criteria as in
rainfall anomaly over Bintan islands shows a significant
(95%) strong negative regression of NINO 3.4 and not signif-
icant of very weak to weak negative regression to IOD.
The seasonal coefficient regression of NINO 3.4 to month-
ly rainfall shows the insignificant weak positive to negative in
DJF, insignificant strong negative in MAM, significant strong
negative in JJA, and significant strong negative in SON. The
IOD coefficient regression shows a strong positive in DJF to
JJA and insignificant strong negative in SON.
4 Discussion
Bintan Island’s water resources are highly dependent on rain-
fall since the rock basement of Bintan Island is dominated by
impervious granite rocks that have a low water storage
635
Table 1 and Fig. 7a. Note that positive (negative) value is convergence
(divergence) anomaly of moisture transport. The first and second most
column for western maritime continent. The third and fourth column
zoom in for Bintan Island
capacity. Therefore, rainfall variability analysis is very impor-
tant for Bintan Island, which has limited water resources as the
bases for water resource allocation planning. Identification of
the factors causing the variability of rainfall on Bintan Island
is vital for water resource management to maintain water re-
source availability and sustainability.
As the general case in Indonesia, monthly and seasonal
rainfall variability of Bintan Island is primarily influenced
by the two monsoon systems (Chang et al. 2005) and secondly
by ITCZ oscillation (Aldrian and Susanto 2003). Although the
monsoon occurs periodically, the beginning of the rainy and
dry season is shifting across the years caused by global climate
phenomena, namely ENSO and IOD. ENSO and IOD are
known to contribute to the decrease/increase in rainfall, caus-
ing drier/wetter conditions than normal (As-syakur et al. 2014;
Nur’utami and Hidayat 2016; Hendrawan et al. 2019; Qian
636
Fig. 11 Spatial distribution of
correlation coefficient between
corrected CHIRPS anomaly and
IOD index. Hatching indicates
significance at 95%
2020; Alsepan and Minobe 2020). These general climatic
temporal patterns are consistent with the wavelet analysis in
this study. In the Bintan Island, the rainfall variability with a 6-
month period caused by the ITCZ zone shifting that causes
two rainfall peaks in 1 year (Figs. 3, 4, and 6), in April–May
for the northward shifting and in September for the southward,
represents semi-annual rainfall variability. The variability of
the 12-month rainfall period is caused by the monsoon sys-
tems (Fig. 6), as shown in previous studies (Konecky et al.
2016; Hendrawan et al. 2019). Annual rainfall variability, the
strongest at the power spectrum, is caused by Asia and
Australian monsoon contribution that shows that the peak in
December represents Asia monsoon and in August represents
Australia monsoon. The effect of intraseasonal oscillation
such as MJO, Borneo vortex, the cold surge is to increase
rainfall that shows the very high rainfall in November–
December (Yang et al. 2019). Although the monsoon occurs
periodically, the beginning of the rainy and dry season is
shifting across the years caused by the attendance of the other
local, regional, and global climate phenomena. The results of
wavelet analysis showed the rainfall variability with 4–8-year
period, namely the ENSO/IOD (Fig. 6).
Previous studies show that IOD strongly influences
Indonesia’s western part, where ENSO weakly influences
(Aldrian et al. 2007; Setiawan et al. 2017). If we look more
detail in a study conducted by As-syakur (2014), it shows a
I. Narulita et al.
weak correlation between ENSO (SOI) to rainfall variability
over Bintan Island in JJA and SON, while for IOD, there is no
correlation with rainfall. At the same time, the results of Qian
(2020) show a positive anomaly of rainfall during El Niño in
DJF. Our common results and the previous studies are that the
influence of ENSO on rainfall depends on season. However,
this study shows some different results. Both ENSO and IOD
still influence the rainfall variability over Bintan Island. This
study analysis results show the details about the correlation
between rainfall and the two climate phenomena. During El
Niño, rainfall shows negative anomalies (drier than normal) in
MAM, JJA, and SON. However, in DJF, the rainfall has pos-
itive anomalies (wetter than normal) only over the southwest-
ern part of Bintan, although El Niño occurred. The positive
anomaly that was observed in DJF associated with mon-
soon convergence that arrives earlier and lingers at west-
ern maritime continent during El Niño years (Lee and
McBride 2016) and the ITCZ is still at the north nearby
equator, the El Niño enhanced easterly wind anomaly to
produce above-normal rainfall there (Qian 2020). The
negative anomalies in MAM, JJA, and SON can be ex-
plained by the negative anomaly of moisture convergence
over Bintan island (Fig. 10). During La Niña, positive
anomalies of rainfall were observed for all seasons that
are associated with the presence of positive anomaly of
moisture convergence (Fig. 10).
Spatio-temporal rainfall variability of equatorial small island: case study Bintan Island, Indonesia 637

Fig. 12 Composite of corrected

CHIRPS anomaly (mm/month)
during positive (left panel) and
negative (right panel) IOD for
each season. The composite was
conducted by criteria as in Table 2
and Fig. 7b
638
Fig. 13 Composite of moisture transport anomaly (arrow) [kg m-1 s-1]
and its convergence (shading) anomaly [kg m-2 s-1] during positive IOD
(first and third column) and negative IOD (second and fourth column) for
each season (rows). The composite was conducted by criteria as in
The positive IOD (Fig. 12) shows positive (negative) rain-
fall anomalies in MAM (DJF, JJA, and SON). The more detail
view of moisture transport over Bintan in MAM reveals the
positive anomaly of moisture convergence (Fig. 13). During
the negative IOD, the generally maritime continent has been
wetter than normal (Saji and Yamagata 2003; Nur’utami and
Hidayat 2016). Our result (Fig. 12) over Bintan shows differ-
ent; negative anomalies were observed in all seasons. During
negative IOD, negative anomalies of rainfall were observed
for all seasons that are associated with the presence of negative
anomaly of moisture convergence around north nearby the
equator in all season (Fig. 13). The discrepancy between the
correlation method (linear assumption) and composite shows
that the IOD effect is not linear with rainfall. The non-linearity
is also observed in the ENSO phenomena (Hoerling et al.
1997).
I. Narulita et al.
Table 2 and Fig. 7b. Note that positive (negative) value is convergence
(divergence) anomaly of moisture transport. The first and second most
column for western maritime continent. The third and fourth column
zoom in for Bintan Island
5 Conclusion
The corrected CHIRPS (satellite-based) dataset helps to de-
scribe spatio-temporal rainfall distribution of small Island,
such as in Bintan Island, that the study area has limited
ground-based rainfall observation dataset. The purpose of this
study is to determine the temporal and spatial variability of
rainfall based on the data of 1981–2017 (37 years). Two peaks
representing equatorial and monsoonal patterns characterized
the temporal variability of rainfall over Bintan Island. Spatial
character of rainfall climatology over Bintan consists of two
zones. The southern part of Bintan shows receiving more rain-
fall related to the more convergence of moisture, especially in
transition seasons (MAM and SON). During the rainy season
(DJF), humidity on the island is very abundant, while in the
dry season (JJA), humidity rarely occurs, so that rainfall
Spatio-temporal rainfall variability of equatorial small island: case study Bintan Island, Indonesia 639

Fig. 14 Regression coefficient of B0 (first column), NINO3.4 Anomaly (second column), and DMI (third column) for all period (first row), DJF (second
row), MAM (third row), JJA (fourth row), and SON (fifth row). Hatching indicates significant level at 95%
640
variability distribution is inapparent. Rainfall variability pat-
terns over Bintan show semi-annual related to ITCZ shifting,
annual related two monsoonal systems, and interannual relat-
ed to ENSO and IOD. ENSO and IOD affect the rainfall var-
iability differently by seasons. During El Niño, negative
anomalies of rainfall occurred in MAM, JJA, and SON, except
in DJF over south western part of Bintan. Meanwhile, during
La Niña, positive anomalies occurred in all seasons. On the
other hand, during positive IOD, there have been negative
(positive) anomalies in DJF, JJA, and SON (MAM).
Meanwhile, during negative IOD, negative anomalies of rain-
fall are observed in all seasons. ENSO contributes more to
rainfall variability than IOD during the period of study.
Result of this study is useful for sustainable management of
water resources, whose existence depends on rainfall variabil-
ity. The results could be applied to water balance quantifica-
tion in Bintan Island for further studies.
Acknowledgments We wish to thank the head of the Research Center of
Oceanographic - LIPI with staff, the coordinator of the DDRF - Coremap
CTI LIPI 2018–2019 with staff who have provided fund and facilities in
carrying out this research. We would also to thank the head of the
Research Center of Geotechnology LIPI for approving the research pro-
posal, technicians who had collaborated in fieldwork. The second and the
third authors are also partly supported by P3MI ITB and The Newton
Fund - Dikti. We would also to thank the staff of the BAPPEDA of Riau
Islands Province, BAPPEDA of Bintan Regency and Tanjungpinang
City.
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of
interest.
References
Aldrian E, Susanto RD (2003) Identification of three dominant rainfall
regions within Indonesia and their relationship to sea surface tem-
perature. Int J Climatol 23(12):1435–1452
Aldrian E, Dümenil Gates L, Widodo FH (2007) Seasonal variability of
Indonesian rainfall in ECHAM4 simulations and in the reanalyses:
The role of ENSO. Theor Appl Climatol 87(1):41–59. https://doi.
org/10.1007/s00704-006-0218-8
Alsepan G, Minobe S (2020) Relations between interannual variability of
regional-scale Indonesian precipitation and large-scale climate
modes during 1960–2007. J Clim 33(12):5271–5291. https://doi.
org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0811.1
Amirudin AA, Salimun E, Tangang F, Juneng L, Zuhairi M (2020)
Differential influences of teleconnections from the Indian and
Pacific Oceans on rainfall variability in Southeast Asia.
Atmosphere 11(9):886. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090886
Anagnostopoulou C, Tolika K (2012) Extreme precipitation in Europe:
statistical threshold selection based on climatological criteria. Theor
Appl Climatol 107(3–4):479–489. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-
011-0487-8
As-syakur AR, Adnyana IWS, Mahendra MS, Arthana IW, Merit IN,
Kasa IW, Ekayanti NW, Nuarsa IW, Sunarta IN (2014)
Observation of spatial patterns on the rainfall response to ENSO
I. Narulita et al.
and IOD over Indonesia using TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation
Analysis (TMPA). Int J Climatol 34(15):3825–3839. https://doi.org/
10.1002/joc.3939
As-syakur AR, Tanaka T, Osawa T, Mahendra MS (2013) Indonesian
rainfall variability observation using TRMM multi-satellite data. Int
J Remote Sens 34(21):7723–7738. https://doi.org/10.1080/
01431161.2013.826837
Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole
on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO.
Geophys Res Lett 28(23):4499–4502. https://doi.org/10.1029/
2001GL013294
Behera SK, Luo J-J, Yamagata T (2008) Unusual IOD event of 2007.
Geophys Res Lett 35(14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034122
Boer R, Faqih M (2004) Global climate forcing factors and rainfall var-
iability in west java: case study in bandung district. J Agromet 18(2):
1–12
BPS (2017) Kabupaten Bintan dalam Angka 2017. Badan Pusat Statistik
Kabupaten Bintan
Cazelles B, Chavez M, Berteaux D, Ménard F, Vik JO, Jenouvrier S,
Stenseth NC (2008) Wavelet analysis of ecological time series.
Oecologia 156(2):287–304
Chang CP, Zhuo W, John M, Ching-Hwang L (2005) Annual cycle of
Southeast Asia — maritime continent rainfall and the asymmetric. J
Clim 18:287–301
Chang CP, Li T, Yang S (2020) Seasonal prediction of boreal winter
rainfall over the Western Maritime Continent during ENSO. J
Meteorol Res 34(2):294–303. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-
9181-z
D’Arrigo R, Smerdon JE (2008) Tropical climate influences on drought
variability over Java, Indonesia. Geophys Res Lett 35(5). https://doi.
org/10.1029/2007GL032589
Dang-Quang N, Renwick J, McGregor J (2016) On the presence of trop-
ical vortices over the Southeast Asian Sea-Maritime continent re-
gion. J Clim 29(13):4793–4800. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-
14-00468.1
Davidson N, Mcbride J, McAvaney B (1984) Divergent circulations dur-
ing the onset of the 1978 79 Australian Monsoon. Mon Weather Rev
112:1684–1696. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)
112<1684:DCDTOO>2.0.CO;2
Dinku T, Funk C, Peterson P, Maidment R, Tadesse T, Gadain H,
Ceccato P (2018) Validation of the CHIRPS satellite rainfall esti-
mates over eastern Africa. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 144(S1):292–312.
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3244
Falkland A (2002) Tropical island hydrology and water resources: current
knowledge and future needs. Second International Colloquium on
Hydrology and Water Management in the Humid Tropics, 237–298
Funk C, Peterson P, Landsfeld M, Pedreros D, Verdin J, Shukla S et al
(2015) The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations a new
environmental record for monitoring extremes. Scientific Data, 2.
https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66
Hamada J-I, Yamanaka MD, Matsumoto J, Fukao S, Winarso PA,
Sribimawati T (2002) Spatial and temporal variations of the rainy
season over Indonesia and their link to ENSO. J Meteorol Soc Jpn
80(2):285–310. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.80.285
Hassim MEE, Timbal B (2019) Observed rainfall trends over Singapore
and the maritime continent from the perspective of regional-scale
weather regimes. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 58(2):365–384. https://
doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0136.1
Hendon HH (2003) Indonesian rainfall variability: impacts of ENSO and
local air sea interaction. J Clim 16(11):1775–1790. https://doi.org/
10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<1775:IRVIOE>2.0.CO;2
Hendrawan IG, Asai K, Triwahyuni A, Lestari DV (2019) The interanual
rainfall variability in Indonesia corresponding to El Niño Southern
Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole. Acta Oceanol Sin 38(7):57–
66. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-019-1457-1
Spatio-temporal rainfall variability of equatorial small island: case study Bintan Island, Indonesia
Herring SC, Hoell A, Hoerling MP, Kossin JP, Schreck CJ, Stott PA
(2016) Explaining extreme events of 2015 from a climate perspec-
tive. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 97(12):S1–S145. https://doi.org/10.
1175/bams-explainingextremeevents2015.1
Hoerling MP, Kumar A, Zhong M (1997) El Niño, La Niña, and the
nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J Clim 10(8):1769–1786.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1769:ENOLNA>2.
0.CO;2
Inomata H, Takeuchi k, Fukami k (2011) Development of a statistical
bias correction method for daily precipitation data of GCM20. J
Japan Soc Civ Eng, Ser B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) 67(4):I_247–
I_252
Inomata H, Takeuchi K, Fukami K (2012) Development of a statistical
bias correction method for daily precipitation data of GCM20. J
Japan Soc Civ Eng, Ser B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) 67. https://
doi.org/10.2208/jscejhe.67.I_247
Iskandar I, Mardiansyah W, Lestari DO, Masumoto Y (2020) What did
determine the warming trend in the Indonesian sea? Prog Earth
Planet Sci 7(1)
Jiang L, Li T (2018) Why rainfall response to El Niño over Maritime
Continent is weaker and non-uniform in boreal winter than in boreal
summer. Clim Dyn 51(4):1465–1483. https://doi.org/10.1007/
s00382-017-3965-6
Konecky B, Russell J, Bijaksana S (2016) Glacial aridity in central
Indonesia coeval with intensified monsoon circulation. Earth
Planet Sci Lett 437:15–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.12.
037
Kusnama, Sutisna, K., Amin, T. C., Koesumadinata, S., Sukardi, &
Hermanto, B. (1994). Peta geologi lembar Tanjung Pinang,
Sumatera, Skala 1:250.000. Pusat Penelitian Dan Pengembangan
Geologi, Bandung.
Kusuma DW, Murdimanto A, Aden LY, Sukresno B, Jatisworo D,
Hanintyo R (2017) Sea surface temperature dynamics in
Indonesia. IOP Conf Ser 98(1):012038. https://doi.org/10.1088/
1755-1315/98/1/012038
Lestari DO, Sutriyono E, Sabaruddin, Iskandar I (2018) Respective in-
fluences of Indian Ocean dipole and El Niño- southern oscillation on
Indonesian precipitation. Datasets Methods 50(3):257–272. https://
doi.org/10.5614/j.math.fund.sci.2018.50.3.3
Lee S-Y, McBride JL (2016) The progression of the boreal winter mon-
soon through the western maritime continent as differentiated by
ENSO phase. Adv Geosci 42:51–60
Lubis, M. Z., Anurogo, W., Kausarian, H., Surya, G., & Choanji, T.
(2017). Sea surface temperature and wind velocity in Batam
Waters its relation to Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). J Geosci Eng
Environ Technol, 2(4), 255. https://doi.org/10.24273/jgeet.2017.2.
4.778
Mardiansyah, W., Setiabudidaya, D., Khakim, M. Y. N., Yustian, I.,
Dahlan, Z., & Iskandar, I. (2018). On the influence of Enso and
IOD on rainfall variability over the Musi Basin, South Sumatra.
Sci Technol Indonesia, 3(4), 157. https://doi.org/10.26554/sti.
2018.3.4.157-163
Nur’utami, M. N., & Hidayat, R. (2016). Influences of IOD and ENSO to
Indonesian rainfall variability: role of atmosphere-ocean interaction
in the Indo-pacific sector. Procedia Environ Sci, 33, 196–203.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2016.03.070
Qian JH (2020) Multi-scale climate processes and rainfall variability in
Sumatra and Malay Peninsula associated with ENSO in boreal fall
641
and winter. Int J Climatol 40(9):4171–4188. https://doi.org/10.1002/
joc.6450
Saji NH, Yamagata T (2003) Structure of SST and surface wind variabil-
ity during Indian Ocean dipole mode events: COADS OBservations.
J Clim 16(16):2735–2751. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-
0442(2003)016<2735:SOSASW>2.0.CO;2
Santoso D (2015) Kajian Daya Dukung Air di Pulau Bintan, Provinsi
Kepulauan Riau. Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Lingkungan, 7, 1–17.
10.20885/jstl.vol7.iss1.art1
Setiawan AM, Lee W-S, Rhee J (2017) Spatio-temporal characteristics of
Indonesian drought related to El Niño events and its predictability
using the multi-model ensemble. Int J Climatol 37(13):4700–4719.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5117
Supari, Tangang F, Salimun E, Aldrian E, Sopaheluwakan A, Juneng L
(2018) ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in
Indonesia. Clim Dyn, 51(7–8), 2559–2580. https://doi.org/10.
1007/s00382-017-4028-8
Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull
Am Meteorol Soc 79(1):61–78. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-
0477(1998)079%3C0061:APGTWA%3E2.0.CO;2
Trenberth KE, Caron JM, Stepaniak DP, Worley S (2002) Evolution of El
Niño-Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface tempera-
tures. J Geophys Res-Atmos, 107(D8), AAC 5-1-AAC 5-17.
10.1029/2000JD000298
Ummenhofer CC, England MH, McIntosh PC, Meyers GA, Pook MJ,
Risbey JS, Gupta AS, Taschetto AS (2009) What causes southeast
Australia’s worst droughts? Geophys Res Lett 36(4). https://doi.org/
10.1029/2008GL036801
Wilks DS (2011) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, 3rd
edn. Academic Press
Wu H, Adler RF, Hong Y, Tian Y, Policelli F (2012) Evaluation of global
flood detection using satellite-based rainfall and a hydrologic model.
J Hydrometeorol 13(4):1268–1284. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-
D-11-087.1
Wu P, Arbain AA, Mori S, Hamada J, Hattori M, Syamsudin F,
Yamanaka MD (2013) The effects of an active phase of the
Madden-Julian oscillation on the extreme precipitation event over
Western Java Island in January 2013. SOLA 9:79–83. https://doi.
org/10.2151/sola.2013-018
Xavier P, Lim SY, Bin Abdullah MFA, Bala M, Chenoli SN, Handayani
AS et al (2020) Seasonal dependence of cold surges and their inter-
action with the madden–julian oscillation over Southeast Asia. J
Clim 33(6):2467–2482. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0048.1
Yang S, Zhang T, Li Z, Dong S (2019) Climate variability over the
Maritime Continent and its role in global climate variation: a review.
J Meteorol Res 33(6):993–1015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-
019-9025-x
Yuan Y, Yan HM (2013) Different types of La Niña events and different
responses of the tropical atmosphere. Chin Sci Bull 58(3):406–415
Zhou T-J (2005) Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with typ-
ical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China. J Geophys Res
110(D8)
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdic-
tional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.