JOINT CONVENTION 2003

Indonesian Geologists Association and Indonesian Geophysicists Association

Mulia Hotel, December 15-17, 2003, Jakarta

OCEAN ATMOSPHERE ASPECTS OF THE ENSO IMPACT ON

INDONESIAN RAINFALL AND ITS PREDICTABILITY
Edvin Aldrian
1
Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, BPP Teknologi, Jakarta 10340, Indonesia
email: aldrian@eudoramail.com

Abstract

Using observed precipitation data (1961-1993) over entire Indonesia (including 6 El Niño and 5 La Niña events)
and a general ocean circulation model, with high resolution in the Indonesian area, we find the following. The
impact of ENSO on Indonesian rainfall differs considerably during the year and is limited for a specific period.
The impact starts in April and reaches its peak around August and September and then diminishes until it
vanishes in December. The impact develops from the east, propagates westward until the peak in August, when
almost the whole archipelago, except the northwestern region is affected. ENSO looses its influence first in the
west and already in December in the entire region, although ENSO related SST anomalies in the NINO3 area
are still under development. The zonal propagation is regulated by the ocean surface circulation in the
archipelago, which itself is driven by the monsoon. The Max Planck Institute global ocean model clarifies that
the surface ocean circulation drives this mechanism. Hence, we found no ENSO impact in December, January
and February, the peak wet season of southern Indonesia.

From another predictability skill study, the atmospheric model performance in this region is high during ENSO
event especially during the El Niño event. The predictability skill is the highest during June/July/August (JJA)
and followed by September/October/November (SON). This fact is true for the global atmospheric model
ECHAM4, regional atmospheric model and two reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-range
Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center
for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR). High predictability in JJA provides a good chance of ENSO
prediction in the early ENSO stage. ECHAM4 usually fails in simulating rainfall in the region, but performs
well during El Niño events. Such a high predictability in relation to ENSO brings a drawback, which is also
related to ENSO, i.e. the spring predictability barrier. The spring predictability barrier hinders an earlier
detection before spring, thus the earliest possible ENSO detection is in May. This barrier exists internally in the
rainfall climate over ENSO sensitive region or the eastern part of the Maritime Continent. From a study of the
predictive skill of climate models and reanalyses, the spring barrier is an inherent character of Indonesian
rainfall and independent of the models or resolutions.

There are evidences of possible warning systems from the rainfall in north Sulawesi and the ocean circulation in
the Halmahera Strait in the early ENSO stage. North Sulawesi rainfall has the highest correlation to the ENSO
region in the Pacific from May to September. The Halmahera Strait is positioned between north Maluku and the
warm pool. The latter experiences direct impacts as soon as ENSO starts, even before the mature subsurface
warming in the central Pacific develops (as an indication of an El Niño event). Thus, as soon as the monsoonal
ocean circulation in Indonesia is in favor of the impact (inward flow), there is another chance of an early ENSO
prediction. In order to understand further the possibility of the ENSO prediction through the local ocean
circulation, a study on the ocean variability like that of the atmosphere is needed.