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INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE
22 MIN READ
By Robert L. Reid
The world’s climate is changing — and those changes are bringing significant
impacts that will affect the way infrastructure is designed and constructed. Civil
Engineering spoke with more than a dozen engineers — from the public and private
sectors, academia, and advocacy groups — who are involved in studying the
potential impacts of climate change and working to develop the proper engineering
responses. They make it clear that the civil engineering profession has a significant
role to play in helping the world adapt to these new conditions.
Many of the observed changes “are unprecedented,” the report states, “and some of
the shifts are in motion now, while some — such as continued sea level rise — are
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U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres described the report as “a code red for
humanity,” adding that the “alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is
irrefutable.”
In 2019, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide — one of several
greenhouse gases that is contributing to a warming globe — were higher than at
any time in at least 2 million years. Concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide,
two other important GHGs, were higher than at any time in the last 800,000
years.
The global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other
50-year period over at least the last 2,000 years.
The global mean sea level has risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding
century in at least the last 3,000 years.
By 2021, emissions of GHGs from human activities were responsible for
approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius of warming above preindustrial levels.
Averaged over the next 20 years, the increase in global temperature is expected
to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“Science has long warned that we need to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees”
above preindustrial levels, Guterres stressed. But that threshold is coming “perilously
close,” and if it is exceeded “we risk calamity,” he warned.
The world is already experiencing the effects of climate change, the report noted, in
h f f l dd h d b f ldf
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ice, snow cover, and permafrost. Such effects will likely increase if action is not taken
to limit warming.
At 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming, there will be “increasing heat waves,
longer warm seasons, and shorter cold seasons,” the report concluded.
At 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, “heat extremes are more likely to reach
critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health,” the report stated. Rainfall
patterns will also be disrupted, with “more intense rainfall and associated flooding,
as well as more intense drought in many regions.”
The effects of climate change “may be magnified” in the world’s cities, especially
coastal cities, which could face increasing heat and heavy precipitation, the report
noted. “Moreover, coastal areas will see continued sea level rise throughout the 21st
century, contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas
and coastal erosion,” the report warned. “Extreme sea level events that previously
occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of this century.”
Engineering a response
In ASCE’s Policy Statement 418, The Role of the Civil Engineer in Sustainable
Development, the Society defines sustainability as “a set of economic,
environmental, and social conditions in which all of society has the capacity and
opportunity to maintain and improve its quality of life indefinitely without degrading
the quantity, quality, or the availability of economic, environmental, and social
resources. Sustainable development is the application of these resources to enhance
the safety, welfare, and quality of life for all of society.”
Caroline Field, P.E., CEng, M.ASCE, an associate director in the Bristol, England,
United Kingdom, office of the international engineering firm Arup, notes: “Quite often
I hear people say resilience is a subset of sustainability, or sustainability is a subset
of resilience. But neither is true — they are different things, but you need them both.”
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photo credit]
(Photograph courtesy of istock.com/irin717)
Field also serves as the head of energy for the Resilience Shift — a global nonprofit
organization created by London-based Lloyd’s Register and Arup. She is also a
Royal Academy of Engineering visiting professor of structure and infrastructure
resilience at Loughborough University. She explains that resilience is “more a
process for enabling your strategic goals, to make sure you’re prepared for and not
disrupted by any challenges ... whereas sustainability is about ensuring we meet the
needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet
their own needs.”
Ayyub is a co-author of a recent task group report from the ASCE Committee on
Sustainability — A Call to Action: Climate Change and Our Uncertain Future, an
Opportunity for Commitment and Leadership, which the committee hopes to publish
soon. In a draft of the report shared with Civil Engineering, the authors stress: “Each
year governments and the private sector invest trillions of dollars in infrastructure
that may not withstand future impacts from climate change. But the risks associated
with potentially severe future climate events go beyond the economic costs. The
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changing climate also jeopardizes food and water supplies, damages ecosystems
resulting in a loss of biodiversity, and adversely affects our quality of life often on a
national and global level.”
To address these challenges, the report adds, “the skills and expertise of engineers
will be in great demand. Engineers will work with other infrastructure professionals
and project owners to ensure infrastructure is safe, resilient and sustainable and to
help meet net zero carbon emissions goals.”
Ayyub also edited two resources that can assist civil engineers as they approach
these goals: ASCE’s 2018 Manual of Practice 140, Climate-Resilient Infrastructure:
Adaptive Design and Risk Management, and ASCE’s 2021 Manual of Practice 144,
Hazard-Resilient Infrastructure: Analysis and Design.
Infrastructure has long been designed to be resilient — but only to those events that
are likely to be similar to those in the past and that have therefore been well
researched and quantified, such as earthquakes or temperature swings. The field of
earthquake engineering, for example, grew from the idea that a building “should not
collapse during even the biggest credible earthquake,” says Larry Roth, P.E., G.E.,
ENV SP, D.GE, D.WRE, F.ASCE, a former deputy executive director at ASCE who
recently retired as a vice president of the international engineering firm Arcadis.
“The building might be uninhabitable” following an earthquake, explains Roth, who
also co-authored the Call to Action report. “It might need extensive repairs — but it
should not collapse outright, trapping and killing people inside.”
That approach to resilience must move from earthquake engineering “into more of a
general design goal,” Roth says. The idea, he says, is that “if the infrastructure
system is stressed beyond what would normally be considered its range of design, it
might not function as well as it did before the event, but it won’t collapse,” or
otherwise be catastrophically destroyed. “It won’t cause loss of life.” Following the
stressor event, the infrastructure should be repairable.
Staying in service
period of time that is “tolerable” to the local community, notes Davis. What is
tolerable depends on the community, but to him it means that the infrastructure
system must be able to provide its service “when the customers need that service.”
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How long that downtime lasts and remains tolerable depends on the community’s
access to alternatives and which type of infrastructure system is involved, Davis
adds. It may sound harsh, he says, but “embedded in this definition is the idea that
t ll t f lif li t li di t ”F l
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not all customers for lifeline systems are equal in a disaster.” For example,
firefighters may need priority access to water immediately after an event to fight
any fires that may result. And while people obviously need potable water, they will
survive if there is no water service for a few hours or even a day or two after an
event. It takes at least three days without drinking water before the issue becomes a
health concern, Davis explains.
Likewise, it is more important for a hospital, fire station, or police station to remain in
operation than it is for some local businesses, Davis says. If the local bowling alley or
movie theater loses power, it is an inconvenience and a potential economic problem
if those facilities remain closed for too long. But it is a crisis if the hospital, fire
station, or police station cannot function.
Davis also stresses that reliability is not the same thing as resilience. “You need
reliability to be resilient,” he says, “but reliability alone is not enough.” For example, if
workers who need to be on-site to operate a power station cannot get to it because
a bridge is out, then the power station cannot provide its service — even if the
facility itself is able to function. As could easily have happened during the COVID-19
pandemic, resilience can be compromised even without any damage to physical
infrastructure “if a disease keeps people from getting to work,” Davis says.
Climate change forces civil engineers to work in “uncharted territory,” says William
A. Wallace, ENV SP, F.ASCE, a former senior vice president at CH2M Hill (now part
of Jacobs) and recently retired from the Wallace Futures Group, which he founded in
Steamboat Springs, Colorado. Wallace also co-authored the Call to Action report.
Wallace cites the work of American environmental activist and author William
McKibben, who wrote that the Earth has enjoyed a kind of climate equilibrium for
the last 10,000 years or so, with average temperatures of roughly 14 to 15 degrees
Celsius, predictable rainfall, and seas that were relatively tame and level. Weather
conditions might vary day to day, but the overall climate was statistically constant
— a condition called stationarity, Wallace says.
As a result of that climate stationarity, civil engineers could use historical climate
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conditions to predict future conditions. This made it possible to design, build, and
operate long-lasting infrastructure systems, “confident that they will be safe,
reliable, and functional throughout their design life,” Wallace says. Such systems
were designed to accommodate the most likely climate conditions with added
“factors of safety to handle the occasional extreme conditions.”
This assumption of stationarity was “baked into the codes and standards civil
engineers use to design, build, and operate civil infrastructure,” Wallace adds.
“It’s possible for a piece of infrastructure to meet all the tests for resiliency” in a pre-
climate-change world, Roth explains. “But as the climate stressors change and that
infrastructure is subjected to greater heat than was anticipated or larger changes in
hydrological conditions, it may be resilient to all sorts of external loadings — but not
resilient to changes in climate stressors.”
One expert says that given the unpredictable nature of climate change, it might be
best to design infrastructure for a shorter design life, rather than a longer one, with
the expectation that future civil engineers would then adapt that infrastructure to
the changes they are experiencing. Miguel Medina, Ph.D., F.ASCE, professor
emeritus of civil and environmental engineering at Duke University, says, “They’re
going to have to design structures for temporary conditions and then adjust it in a
few years, according to the new conditions.”
One obstacle civil engineers face in trying to design infrastructure that will remain
operational in the face of the impacts of climate change is the fact that most codes
and standards do not take climate change into account. Ayyub says that matters
because many engineers think, “I will design according to codes and standards, and
then I’m done!”
Consequently, Ayyub says, “improving codes and standards is ... the most important
single activity that will have an impact across the board not only in the United
States but also overseas because many countries follow what we do.”
To that end, ASCE, the University of Maryland, and the climate program office at the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently launched a partnership
to “accelerate the move toward more climate-resilient infrastructure for the nation
and globally,” explained NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., in a Nov. 3, 2021,
press release. Specifically, the collaboration will work to include NOAA-produced
climate data in the development and updating of ASCE codes and standards, which
influence the vast majority of building codes in the United States and abroad.
“Our goal is to bring climate information into the nation’s standard-setting process
to increase the pace of climate adaptation and reduce design, construction, and
maintenance costs as well as the costs of climate-related natural disasters,” Spinrad
says.
Ayyub will work to facilitate the partnership, along with colleague Dan Walker,
Ph.D., A.M.ASCE, the associate director of the University of Maryland’s Center for
Technology and Systems Management and a member of ASCE’s Committee on
Adaptation to a Changing Climate. Although the effort is just getting started, Walker
notes that the issue has global interest. “People involved in European codes see the
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same problems,” Walker says. “The challenge is: What will be the statistical
mechanism that allows you to understand future conditions that you can use for
design?”
Climate change should also be taken into account in ASCE’s Report Card for
America’s Infrastructure when determining the grades assigned to individual
infrastructure categories, notes Jason Giovannettone, Ph.D., P.E., M.ASCE, a former
senior engineer/meteorologist at Dewberry and now the director of climate and
sustainability for the charitable organization Sisters of Mercy of the Americas, in
Silver Spring, Maryland.
The report card is issued roughly every four years, most recently in 2021. But its
grades are based on that no-longer-accurate idea of climate stationarity, adds
Barbato, who serves with Giovannettone on the Committee on Adaptation to a
Changing Climate. Because the 2021 report card assigned a cumulative grade of C-
to 17 infrastructure categories, it means “we’re at most mediocre under the present
conditions,” which are changing in ways that are difficult to predict, says Barbato.
Declaring interdependence
“So if the energy sector fails, the transportation sector fails,” explains Giovannettone,
who recently co-authored a book that discusses the “ever-increasing
interdependence between sectors.” That book, Impacts of Future Weather and
Climate Extremes on United States Infrastructure: Assessing and Prioritizing
Adaptation Actions, is being published by ASCE. An electronic version is available
online, and a print version will be published soon.
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t photo credit]
(Photograph courtesy of istock.com/Justin Hobson)
when sensors or technology for connected vehicles are installed on highways, the
roads become more dependent on their availability and the electricity that powers
them, notes Savina Carluccio, CEng, MICE, an associate director in the London office
of Arup.
“If you’re overlaying new technology onto existing infrastructure, you might
introduce unintended vulnerabilities or dependencies,” says Carluccio, who is also
the head of guidance and standards for the Resilience Shift and a program director
for the International Coalition of Sustainable Infrastructure, which ASCE helped
create.
“You have to understand what impact (that technology) will have on the existing
and legacy infrastructure,” Carluccio explains. “So when an adverse event hits and
you think the transportation infrastructure is fine, you’ve actually made it dependent
on another infrastructure network — you’ve made the system more vulnerable to
climate change or other shocks and stresses.”
Changing approaches
What can civil engineers do to prepare themselves for the challenges of designing
infrastructure systems that are more resilient to the impacts of climate change?
Civil engineers are actually in an “enviable position” and facing the “opportunity of a
lifetime,” says Wallace. They have an opportunity to help rewrite the rules as
exemplified in the codes and standards. Wallace says, “Engineers can reduce
infrastructure project risk, applying their unique knowledge and experience to
determine what solutions could work and what won’t work ”
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determine what solutions could work and what won’t work.”
By nature — and often with good reason — “engineers can be risk-averse,” says
Field. “So they need to embrace the change that’s coming and try to equip
themselves with the new skill sets they’ll need.” These new skill sets are intended to
expand the role of civil engineers from strictly technical experts to advisers and
consultants to their clients, Field explains. They include communications, critical
thinking, and especially a focus on systems thinking.
“The tools of risk analysis will become much more important to civil engineers
because we’ll have to deal with deep uncertainty,” notes Roth.
And the ability to conduct climate stress tests will be critical “for a range of climate
scenarios to understand what projections actually mean in terms of what happens
to a network if certain events hit,” says Carluccio.
Civil engineers can acquire these new skills in various ways — through on-the-job
learning or mentoring, internal training programs offered by their employers, online
courses provided by ASCE and other engineering organizations, and returning to
school to earn a graduate-level degree, Field notes. “The key thing is to keep
learning,” she says. “Think about your own personal resilience — how you learn and
change and adapt and be willing to do that.”
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it photo credit]
(Photograph courtesy of istock.com/mack2happy)
Civil engineers will also need to learn how to work with experts in other fields
because the issue of infrastructure resilience to climate change is “not a single-
discipline problem … so if you’re only working with engineers, you’re not going to
solve it,” notes John W. van de Lindt, Ph.D., F.SEI, F.ASCE, the Harold H. Short
Endowed Chair at Colorado State University and the co-director of the Center of
Excellence for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning for the National Institute
of Standards and Technology.
Civil engineers must collaborate with mechanical engineers and engineers in other
disciplines, architects, urban planners, economists, first responders and other
emergency experts, the insurance and reinsurance industries, and experts in the
field of social equity. (Read “Can equitable infrastructure investment combat climate
change?”)
“The role of the civil engineer will be central in all this,” notes Ayyub. But “when we
deal with adaptation and mitigation for a changing climate, it’s certainly a systems
problem — it cannot be handled by one specialty or one domain, so there is a need
for a collaborative effort.”
Civil engineers need to be involved in the planning stages of projects earlier than
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they generally are now — admittedly, a long-sought goal of the profession but one
that takes on a greater urgency because of climate change. For Roth, civil engineers
will “have a new role and a new responsibility to advise owners and regulators”
when, for instance, the proposed site of a project is potentially at risk because of
climate change.
Civil engineers “can explain their reasons or at least raise awareness that (relocating
the project) might offer a significant advantage,” Roth explains. If relocation is not
possible, civil engineers can discuss ways to better protect or adapt the site.
And if the health and safety of the public are at risk, civil engineers must also be
prepared to walk away from some projects, Roth adds.
Adding things up
Although the idea of resilience to climate change can appeal to clients, the question
of how much it will cost arises frequently. “It’s at the heart of climate adaptation,”
notes Walker. “If we have additional costs associated with construction, will we see
a benefit that offsets that cost?”
Field notes: “Being able to quantify resilience is incredibly important.” Civil engineers
must be able to explain “that it will cost you more money in the long run if you don’t
do it,” she says.
Considerable research indicates that every dollar spent on resiliency will generate a
return on investment of $4 to $11 “by saving on having to rebuild again and again
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etu o est e t o $ to $ by sa go a g to ebu d aga a d aga
and again,” says Tye. This is equally true for major events and the so-called
nuisance flooding events, which are more frequent than monster storms but can
have a cumulative effect that financially exceeds the more extreme events like
hurricanes Sandy or Ida, Tye explains.
Although the investments in resiliency can be considerable, the results can be even
more dramatic. For example, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city
of New Orleans and the federal government spent more than $14 billion designing
and constructing new levees and other flood-prevention systems for the Crescent
City. But since that system was designed to prevent another Katrina-like scenario —
which caused an estimated $160 billion in damages — “I’d say that’s a good
investment,” notes Melissa Darr, P.E., M.ASCE, a project water engineer in the
Phoenix office of Arcadis, where she also is a member of the firm’s global
sustainability team. By all accounts, the new flood defenses in New Orleans did
protect the city from the worst of Hurricane Ida in summer 2021.
More recently, the bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure package that was adopted
by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden in November 2021 pledged $47
billion for infrastructure resilience, at least some of which is specifically aimed at
combating climate change.
“Investing in resilience is almost always going to pay off,” Darr says. But it can be “a
tough thing to convince people to do because when you invest in resiliency, the
payoff is that nothing happens, and when nothing happens, people aren’t good at
remembering that it was an investment we needed to make. What we have to do is
convince people to make the investment proactively — and not wait until after the
storm.”
Robert L. Reid is the senior editor and features manager of Civil Engineering.
This article first appeared in the January/February 2022 issue of Civil Engineering as
“Responding to Code Red.”
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