Zion Hills Christian School Of Binangonan Inc.

Track and Intensity Forecast of Typhoon "Mawar" Betty

Group 4
John Michael N. Gascon
Precious Irish Novallasca
Alexandra Cerrero
Marc enzear Rosal
Jhun Mitchele Manalang
Steven Claide Melchor

Teacher

Victoria Beltran

ABSTRACT
On 27th May 2023, a strong tropical cyclone, known as typhoon Betty,
entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is considered an
imminent threat to the Philippines. The typhoon maintains its strength
with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near the center and gustiness
of up to 240 km/h. It is expected to track northwestward and decelerate
as it moves over the waters east of Extreme Northern Luzon on May 29th.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA) issued a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS)
No.1 indicating a strong wind threat, with minimal to minor threats to life
and property. Batanes may receive over 200mm of rainfall, while
Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union may receive 100-
200 mm. The Department of Health (DOH) declared a code white alert for
the typhoon in region IV-A or CALABARZON. PAGASA warns of flooding
and rain-induced landslides due to southwesterly wind

List of FIGURES and TABLES

First tracked as a disturbance 0600 UTC, 17 May 2023 Over the sea
west of Yap, Federated States of
Micronesia

Developed into a tropical cyclone 1200 UTC, 19 May 2023 Over the sea
south of Chuuk, Federated States of
Micronesia

Transitioned into a post-tropical low 0600 UTC, 03 June 2023 Over the sea
south of Honshu, Japan

Peak intensity (lifetime1 ) 115 kt (215 km/h), 905 hPa, Super

Typhoon 1800 UTC, 25 May 2023

Period of occurrence (lifetime) 14 days and 18 hours

Entered the PAR region 1800 UTC, 26 May 2023

Exited the PAR region 0700 UTC, 01 June 2023

Peak intensity (within the PAR) 105 kt (195 km/h), 915 hPa, Super
Typhoon 1800 UTC, 26 May 2023

Period of occurrence (within the PAR) 5 days and 13 hours

Observed landfalls in the Philippines None

Significant hydrometeorological  Strong to gale-force wind gusts over

hazards observed over the country Extreme Northern Luzon.

 Total rainfall > 100 mm over

Babuyan Islands, Benguet, La Union,
and most of Ilocos Sur, Pangasinan,
Abra, Ifugao, Mountain Province, and
Nueva Vizcaya

 Monsoon total rainfall > 100 mm

over northern Palawan including
Calamian and Cuyo Islands, most of
 Mindoro Provinces, and the far
northwestern portion of Antique.

Extremes of Surface Weather Observations during Tropical Cyclone

Days2 Based on reports from PAGASA manned surface weather stations
Highest storm duration (26 May to 01 June 2023) rainfall over land:
 La Trinidad, Benguet: 484.4 mm
 Baguio City: 442.6 mm
 La Carlota City, Negros Occidental: 193.1 mm
Highest 24-hour rainfall over land:
 La Trinidad, Benguet: 220.5 mm, 31 May 2023
 Baguio City, Benguet: 184.2 mm, 31 May 2023
 Maasin City, Southern Leyte: 107.6 mm, 26 May 2023
1 Lifetime is the period from the development into a tropical depression
to its weakening into a remnant low or its transitioning into a post-
tropical low.
2 Also called “storm duration”, it refers to the meteorological days of
occurrence of the tropical cyclone within the PAR region.

Intro

The typhoon Betty or also known as typhoon MAWAR, is a big tropical

cyclone that affects many places and country specially here in the
Philippines. On 27th May 2023 the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical,
and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), reported that the
cyclone is one of the strongest Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone on
record and is currently tied with typhoon Bolaven as the strongest
tropical cyclone worldwide in 2023 so far in the month of May.
The name "Mawar" means rose in Malaysian. This typhoon affected many
areas here in the Philippines especially Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, and
Northern Luzon, whereas Mindanao is free and safe from the typhoon.
Body

On 27th May 2023, a strong tropical cyclone has entered the Philippine
Area of Responsibility (PAR). It was called super typhoon Mawar or locally
it was called typhoon Betty. The typhoon is categorized as one of the
strongest Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone and can be label into as
one of the hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and it maintains its
strength with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near the centre and
gustiness of up to 240 km/h. It was rapidly moving at a pace of 30km/h,
west-northwestward. It is also forecasted to track generally in the same
direction, turning northwestward and decelerating as it moves over the
waters east of Extreme Northern Luzon on May 29th.

The typhoon Betty is recognized as an imminent threat to the Philippines,

demanding immediate attention and strategic preparedness to mitigate
potential risks and safeguard vulnerable regions, in other words to make
the fellow Pilipinos be aware and ready on the typhoon, for them to
overcome it strongly. There are big areas that is affected by this typhoon
especially, Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, and Northern Luzon, the
Mindanao where free from typhoon since the typhoon didn't land or pass
on that area.

While the typhoon is currently moving, the Philippine Atmospheric,

Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), has
issued the Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No.1, indicating a strong
wind threat, meaning minimal to minor threat to life and property, the
TCWS issued it to the areas over the eastern portion of Cagayan,
including the Babuyan and Camiguin Islands and Eastern portion of
Isabela. When an area is currently in effect or experiencing strong winds,
with strong breeze to near gale strength is called TCWS or Tropical
Cyclone Wind Signal.

In terms of accumulated rainfall, Batanes may receive more than 200mm,

while Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union may receive
100-200 mm of rainfall. Apayao, the Cordillera Administrative Region
(CAR), and the northern portion of mainland Cagayan may receive 50-100
mm of rainfall. Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or
mountainous areas severe or strong winds and strong breeze will be
experienced within Estimated Still Water Storm Surge Estimated Tropical
Cyclone Rainfall.

The areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No.1 is currently in effect
are seas in the eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas will experience
moderate to rough (1.5 to 3.5 m) seas in the next 24 hours, which may
become rough to very rough (2.5 to 5.0 m). The northern seaboard of
Luzon may also experience moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) in the
morning through the afternoon and rough seas (2.5 to 4.0 m) beginning at
night.

The Department of Health (DOH) declares code white alert for super
typhoon Betty or Mawar to region IV-A or CALABARZON (Cavite, Laguna,
Batangas, Rizal, Quezon). They raised the alert status due to the track
duration as reported by the PAGASA and persuade other provinces to
also raise their code alert to be aware and alert in the possible effects of
the super typhoon. The code white status is when a medical personnel
are placed on an "on call status for immediate mobilization" to ensure the
readiness of each hospitals to respond to any emergency situation.

According to PAGASA, the typhoon weakens after days but due to the
southwesterly wind flow and southwest monsoon, locally termed as
habagat, flooding and rain induced landslides may still occur.
Furthermore, it raised gale warnings as it expects turbulent sea
conditions with waves as high as 3.7 to 6.0 meters in the coast of some
ares like Batanes, Cagayan, Aurora, Babuyan Islands and more areas
affected.

Conclusion
RECOMMENDATIONS

In response to the potential or possible risks of typhoon Betty, also

knows as MAWAR, the NDRRMC-OCD is on ALERT Status RED Day 2 for TC
MAWAR. The NDRRMC-OCD has conducted a Weather Update and Pre-
Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) to assess potential risks and discuss
preparations for the typhoon. Nine response clusters, including Logistics,
Food and NFI, Health, Law and Order, Emergency Telecoms, IDP
Protection, Camp Coordination and Camp Management, Shelter, and
Education have been activated, while three response clusters are on
standby. The AHA Centre is in close coordination with the NDRRMC, and
will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary
updates.
Data sources for the update include the ASEAN Disaster Monitoring &
Response System (DMRS), as well as Philippine agencies such as the
NDRRMC and PAGASA. Government and people itself make themselves
aware and ready to the typhoon for them to strongly faced the risks that
is caused by the super typhoon. The following to do's are aforementioned
to keep each citizens in every society to be safe in this kind of situation.
References

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1776101/typhoon-betty-slightly-accelerates-
signal-no-2-up-in-3-provinces

https://ro4a.doh.gov.ph/140-featured-article/994-doh-calabarzon-declares-
code-white-alert-for-super-typhoon-betty-mawar

https://www.google.com/url?
sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/bina
ries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-
events/interesting/2023/2023_04_storm_betty.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi-8aDjs-
SCAxVQbmwGHQsSAwsQFnoECAQQBQ&usg=AOvVaw2ZSDpr00aknSykH7m75
So

Appendices
(AHA Centre) Tropical Cyclone Manwar "Betty"

Philstar (Kristine daguno-Bersamina