Combinations and Permutations

"My fruit salad is a combination of apples, grapes and bananas." We don't

care what order the fruits are in, they could also be "bananas, grapes and
apples" or "grapes, apples and bananas", it’s the same fruit salad.
"The combination to the safe is 472". Now we do care about the order. "724"
won't work, nor will "247". It has to be exactly 4-7-2.
When the order doesn't matter, it is a Combination.
When the order does matter it is a Permutation.
A Permutation is an ordered Combination. “Permutation … Position”
 Permutations

There are basically two types of permutation:

• No Repetition: for example the first three people in a running race. You can't
be first and second.

• Repetition is Allowed: such as the lock above. It could be "333".

• When a thing has n different types ... we have n choices each time!
 Combinations

• There are two types of combinations

• No repetition: such as lottery numbers (2, 14, 15, 27, 30, 33)

No repetition

• Repetition is allowed: such as coins in your pocket (5, 5, 5, 10, 10)

Combinations – No Repetition
Pascal’s Triangle
 Combinations – With Repetition

• Let us say there are five flavors of ice cream: banana (b), chocolate (c), lemon
(l), strawberry (s) and vanilla (v).
• We can have three scoops. How many variations will there be?
• {c, c, c}  3 scoops of chocolate
• {b, l, v}  one each of banana, lemon and vanilla
• {b, v, v}  one of banana, two of vanilla}
• (And just to be clear: There are n=5 things to choose from, we choose r=3 of
them, order does not matter, and we can repeat!)
In Conclusion
Example:

How many permutations of 3 different digits are there, chosen from the ten
digits 0 to 9 inclusive? (Such as drawing ten numbered marbles from a bag,
without replacement)

The number of permutations of 3 digits chosen from 10 is 10P3

= 10!/(10 - 3)!
= 10 × 9 × 8
= 720
Example:

How many permutations of 4 different letters are there, chosen from the
twenty six letters of the alphabet?

The number of permutations of 4 letters chosen from 26 is

Example:

How many different committees of 5 people can be chosen from 10 people?

In choosing a committee, order doesn't matter; so we need the number of

combinations of 5 people chosen from 10
= 10C5
= 10!/(5! x 5!)
= (10 × 9 × 8 × 7 × 6)/(5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1)
= 30,240/120
= 252
Example:

Jones is the Chairman of a committee. In how many ways can a committee of 5

be chosen from 10 people given that Jones must be one of them?

Jones is already chosen, so we need to choose another 4 from 9.

In choosing a committee, order doesn't matter; so we need the number of
combinations of 4 people chosen from 9
= 9C4
= 9!/(4! x 5!)
= (9 × 8 × 7 × 6)/(4 × 3 × 2 × 1)
= 3,024/24
= 126
Example:

A password consists of two letters of the alphabet followed by three digits

chosen from 0 to 9.
Repeats are allowed.
How many different possible passwords are there?

The number of ways of choosing the letters = 26 × 26 = 676

The number of ways of choosing the digits = 10 × 10 × 10 = 1,000
So, using the Basic Counting Principle, the number of possible passwords
= 676 × 1,000
= 676,000
Example:

An encyclopedia has eight volumes. In how many ways can the eight volumes
be replaced on the shelf?

Imagine there are 8 spots on the shelf. Replace the volumes one by one. The
first volume to be replaced could go in any one of the eight spots. The second
volume to be replaced could then go in any one of the seven remaining spots.
The third volume to be replaced could then go in any one of the six remaining
spots etc.
So the total number of ways the eight volumes could be replaced
= 8!
=8×7×6×5×4×3×2×1
= 40,320
Example:
A restaurant offers 5 choices of appetizer, 10 choices of main meal and 4
choices of dessert. A customer can choose to eat just one course, or two
different courses, or all three courses. Assuming all choices are available, how
many different possible meals does the restaurant offer?
A person who eats only an appetizer has 5 choices.
A person who eats only a main meal has 10 choices.
A person who eats only a dessert has 4 choices.
A person who eats an appetizer and a main meal has 5 × 10 = 50 choices.
A person who eats an appetizer and a dessert has 5 × 4 = 20 choices.
A person who eats a main meal and a dessert has 10 × 4 = 40 choices.
A person who eats all three courses has 5 × 10 × 4 = 200 choices
So the total number of possible meals = 5 + 10 + 4 + 50 + 20 + 40 + 200 = 329
Example:
In a statistics class of 25 industrial, 10 mechanical, 10 electrical and 8 civil
engineering students, what is the probability of randomly selecting an
industrial engineering student? What is the probability of selecting an
electrical or civil engineering student?

industrial engineering student

Civil or electrical engineering student

Example:

What is the probability that 2 out of 5 cards in a poker game will be aces
and 3 will be jacks?

2 aces in 4 colors:

3 jacks out of 4
colored jacks:

5 out of 52 cards:
Example:

When a pair of game dice is rolled, what is the probability that their sum is 7 or
11?

The first die can land in six positions. For each of these positions,
the second die can fall in six ways.

Let A be the case when the sum is 7 and B be the case when the sum is 11.

Out of 36 sample points, for six points the total is 7, and for two points the
total is 11. {1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2, 6-1} {6-5, 5-6}

Since events A and B cannot occur together

Example:
Serhat will graduate from industrial engineering at the end of this semester.
After interviewing with 2 companies he likes, he thinks that the probability of
being called for a re-interview from Company A is 80% and the probability of
being called from Company B is 60%. He evaluates the probability of being
called for a re-interview from both companies as 50%. According to this, what
is the probability of being called from at least one company?
Calling from Company A

Calling from Company B

 Example:
The settlements at the bearings of a bridge with 3 bearings shown in the figure are as follows;
0 mm, 10 mm, 20 mm for bearing A; 0 mm, 20 mm for bearing B; 0 mm, 10 mm, 20 mm for
bearing C. According to these data;
(a) Define the sample space representing the possible collapse (settlement) for all bearings.
(b) Assuming that the probabilities are all of equal probability, any two consecutive calculate
the probability for the event (E) of a 20 mm collapse difference between the support.

(a)

3 2 3
0-0-0 0-20-0 10-0-0 10-20-0 20-0-0 20-20-0
0-0-10 0-20-10 10-0-10 10-20-10 20-0-10 20-20-10
0-0-20 0-20-20 10-0-20 10-20-20 20-0-20 20-20-20 (b)
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Conditional probability is denoted as P(A|B). The meaning of P(A|B) is that an

event like B is expressed as the probability of event A when it is known to
occur.
The conditional probability of event A under the assumption that event B
occurs, given that A and B are two events defined in the same sample space and
P(B)>0:

By making use of this definition, the probability of events A and B occurring

together can be calculated with the help of conditional probability.

in the following form.

Example:

A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards. Since the card is known to be a
jack, what is the probability that the card drawn is a heart?

If we define events A and B,

A: The card drawn is a heart.
B: The drawn card is a jack.

In this case, event B has 4 elements (hearts, diamonds, clubs and spades).

The conditional probability sought is P(A|B).

Example:
In our school, 45% of the students fail statistics (İ), 35% fail computer (B) courses
and 25% fail both statistics and computer courses. A randomly selected student,
a) If he/she fails in computing, the probability that he/she will also fail in
statistics,
b) If he/she fails statistics, the probability that he/she is to fail computer science,
c) Find the probability of failing at least one of these two courses.
Total Probability Rule

When the probability of an event B cannot be calculated directly, the rule of total
probability is used. For example, let's investigate the probability that a packet of
cigarettes produced by 6 machines in a cigarette factory is defective when one of
them is taken at random. Here, if event B is that the cigarette pack taken is
defective, this pack may have been produced in one of the machines A1, A2,
....A6.
To find the probability P(B), the
total probability formula is used
Example:
In a factory, 50% of the goods produced are produced by machine 1, 30% by
machine 2 and 20% by machine 3. It is observed that 3%, 4% and 5% of the
goods produced by these machines are defective respectively. What is the
probability that a randomly selected one of the goods produced is defective?
Ai: The selected good is produced on machine 1 (i = 1,2,3)
B: The selected item is defective.

The probability that a randomly selected good is defective is 0.037. In other words, if 1000 goods are
purchased from this factory, the expected value of the number of defective goods among these 1000 goods
will be 37.
Example:

Members of a consulting company rent cars from three businesses, 60% from
business 1, 30% from business 2 and 10% from business 3. If 9% of the cars
from business 1, 20% of the cars from business 2 and 6% of the cars from
business 3 require maintenance, what is the probability that a car leased to the
company requires maintenance?
B: A car needs maintenance,
Ai: Let i= 1, 2, 3 be events i= 1, 2, 3 where the car comes from establishment 1, 2 or 3.
Example:
An electrical engineer calculates that during a severe storm in Küçükçekmece
district, Atakent neighborhood, Kanarya neighborhood, Kanarya neighborhood
and Halkalı neighborhood, which have 60%, 30%, 10%, 20% and 60% of the
power transmission lines, respectively, may be damaged 0%, 20% and 60%,
respectively. Accordingly, what is the estimated probability of damage in case of a
severe storm in Küçükçekmece district?

X = {Damage that may occur in Küçükçekmece during a severe storm}