M a t h e ma t i c a l

A p pl i ca t i o n of
P ro ba b i l i t y
Explanation of selected Illustrations
 ILL – 10
Out of 5 mathematicians and 7 statisticians, a committee consisting of 2 mathematicians and 3 statisticians is
to be formed. In how many ways can this be done if
a. Any mathematician and any statistician can be included
b. One particular statistician must be on the committee
c. Particular mathematician cannot be on the committee?

• 2 mathematicians out of 5 can be selected in ways.

3 statisticians out of 7 can be selected in ways.

Total number of possible selection = = 350 ways.

• 2 mathematicians out of 5 can be selected in ways.
2 statisticians out of 6 can be selected in 6ways.

Total number of possible selection = = 150 ways.

• 2 mathematicians out of 4 can be selected in 4 ways.
3 statisticians out of 7 can be selected in ways.

Total number of possible selection =4 = 105 ways.

ILL- 11 City residents were surveyed recently to determine readership of newspapers available. 50%
of them read the morning paper, 60% of them read the evening paper, and 20% read both the
newspaper. Find the probability that a resident selected reads either the morning or evening paper or
both the papers.

P (A∩B) = .20
P (A) = .50 P (B) = .60

= 0.50 + 0.60 - 0.20 = 0.90

ILL- 12 A study shows that 65% of managers had some business education and 50% had some
engineering education. Furthermore, 20% had some business education but no engineering education.
What is the probability that a manager has some business education, given that he has some
engineering education?

0.65 0.50
0.45

0.20 0.20
 ILL- 13 A candidate is selected for interview of management trainees for 3 companies. For
the first company there are 12 candidates, for the second there are 15 candidates and for the
third there are 10 candidates. What are the chances of his getting job at least at one of the
company?

The probability that the candidate gets the job at least at one company
= 1 – Probability that the candidate does not get the job in any company.

Probability that the candidate does not get the job in the first company = 1 – 1/12 =
11/12
Probability that the candidate does not get the job in the second company = 1 – 1/15 = 14/15

Probability that the candidate does not get the job in the third company = 1 – 1/10 =
9/10
Since the events are independent, therefore, the probability that the candidate does not get any
job in any of the three companies = 1 – (11/12 * 14/15 * 9/10) = 1 – (231/300) = 1 - 0.77 = 0.23
 ILL - 14
In a post office, there are three clerks are assigned to process incoming mail. The first clerk, processes
40%, the second clerk, processes 35% and the third clerk, processes 25% of the mail. The first clerk
has an error rate of 0.04, the second clerk has an error rate of 0.06 and the third clerk has an error rate
of 0.03. A mail was selected at random from a days output is found to have an error. The post master
wishes to know the probability that the mail was processed by the first, second, or the third clerk,
respectively.

Let A denote the event that a mail containing an error is selected at random and be the event
that the mail was processed by the first, second and the third clerk respectively.
Here,
P (, P (, P (5

Also, P (A| = 0.04, P (A| = 0.06 , P (A| = 0.03

Using the Bayes formula we can calculate the value,
P(=
 Here,
P (, P (, P (5

Also, P (A| = 0.04, P (A| = 0.06 , P (A| = 0.03

Using the Bayes formula we can calculate the value,

P(=

Using the Bayes formula we can calculate the value,

P(=

Using the Bayes formula we can calculate the value,

P(
ILL- 18 An MBA applies for a job in two firms X and Y. The probability of his being selected in from X
is 0.7 and being rejected at Y is 0.5. The probability of at least one of his application being rejected is 0.6.
What is the probability that he will be selected in one of the firms?

P (A) = 0.7, P (A’) = 1 - 0.7 = 0.3

P (B’) = 0.5, P (B) = 1 – 0.5 = 0.5

The probability that he will be

selected in one of the firms is
obtained by using addition rule.

P (= 1 -
= 1 - P ()
= 1 – 0.6 = 0.4

= 0.8

The probability is 0.8

 ILL - 20
The odds that A speaks the truth is 3 : 2 and the odds that B speaks the truth is 5 : 3. In what
percentage of cases they likely to contradict each other on an identical point?

P (A) = 3/5 , P (A’) = 2/5

P (B) = 5/8 , P (B’) = 3/8

The Probability that they contradict each other at an identical point

=
= P (A) * P (B’) + P (A’) * P(B)
=
=

Here, percentage of cases in which they contradict each other is = * 100 = 47.5 %
 ILL - 26
A bag contains 8 red and 5 white balls. Two successive drawings of 3 balls are made at random from the
bag such that
 Balls are replaced before the second trial.
 Balls are not replaced before the second trial.
Find the probability that the first draw yields 3 white balls and the second draw 3 red balls.

When the balls are replaced

Total number of balls in the bag = 13
Total number of red balls = 8
Total number of white balls = 5

3 balls out of 13 can be drawn in ways.

3 white balls can be drawn out of 5 in ways.
3 red balls can be drawn out of 8 red balls in ways.
Since the balls are replaced before the second draw, the total number of outcomes for both the
draws remain the same,
= 0.0068
 When the balls are not replaced

Total number of balls in the bag = 13

Total number of red balls = 8
Total number of white balls = 5

When the balls are not replaced, there would be no change in P (A). Also
the number of favorable outcomes to the event B shall be but on the
second draw the total number of outcomes would be ( 3 balls drawn are
not replaced).
= 0.0163
 Illustration :
9 , 10 , 11, 12, 13, 14, (15-21), 26, 27, 30, 31, 34
 Probability Bayes

Conditioning Data

Intersection Joint probability