Conditional Probability

However, quite often, while evaluating probability of some event, we

already have some information stemming from the experiments. For
example, if we have prior information that the outcome of the random
experiment must be in a set B of S, then this information must be used
to re-appraise that likelihood that the outcome will be also be in B. This
re-appraised probability is denoted by P(A/B) and is read as the
conditional probability of the event A, given that the event B has already
happed.
P(A/B)= P(A∩B)/P(B)
(conditional probability of happening of A, given that B has already
happened)
Independent Events: P(A/B)=P(A) => P(A ∩ B) = P(A)*P(B)
Examples:
1. Data on the readership of a certain magazine show that the proportion of ‘male reader
under 35 is 0.40 and over 35 is 0.20. If the proportion of readers under 35 is 0.70, find
(i) the proportion of subscribers that are ‘female over 35 years’
(ii) calculate the probability that a randomly selected male subscriber is under 35 years
of age.
Solution:
A: Reader of the magazine is male.
B: Reader of the magazine is over 35 years of age.
P(A∩B)=0.20, P(A ∩B’)=0.40, P(B’)=0.70

i) P(A’ ∩B)=P(B)-P(A ∩B)=0.10

ii) P(B’/A)=P(B’ ∩A)/P(A)=0.4/0.6=2/3

2. A bag contains 17 counters marked with the no. 1 to 17. A counter is
drawn and replaced; a second drawing is then made. What is the
probability that the first number drawn is even and the second odd?
How will your results be effected if the first counter drawn is not replaced?
Solution:
A: getting even numbered counter, P(A)= 8/17
B: getting odd numbered counter, P(B)=9/17
First even and second odd numbered counter= A ∩ B,
P(A∩B)=P(A)*P(B)=72/289, (A and B are independent)
However, if the first counter is not replaced then,
P(A∩B)=P(A)*P(B/A)=(8/17)*(9/16)=9/34.
3. A consignment of 15 record players contains 4 defectives. The record
players are selected at random one by one, and examined. Those
examined are not put back. What is the probability that the 9th one
examined is the last defective?
Solution:
A: 3 defective in examination of 8 record player, P(A)=(4C3*11C5)/15C8
B/A: the 9th piece examined is a defective given that there 3 defective in
first 8 examination,
P(B/A)=1C1/7C1=1/7
Hence, P(A∩B)= P(A)*P(B/A)=8/195
4. In the following figure, assume that the probability of a relay being
closed is ‘p’ and that a relay open or closed independently of any other.
Find the probability that current from L to R.
Solution:
Ai = the relay i (i = 1,2,3,4,5) is closed.
E = Current will flow from L to R.
In the figure, the current will flow from L to R if at least one the circuit
from L to R is closed. That is
i) A1∩A2=B1 ii) A4 ∩A5=B2 iii)A1 ∩A3 ∩A5=B3 iv) A4 ∩A3 ∩A2=B4
P(B1 U B2 U B3 U B4)=?,
P(B1)=P(A1)P(A2)=p*p=P(B2), P(B3)=p*p*p=P(B4)
P(B1 ∩B2)=P(A1 ∩A2 ∩A3 ∩A4)=p*p*p*p,…

P(B1 U B2 U B3 U B4)= 2p^2+2p^3-5p^4+2p^5 (verify)