Conditional Probability and Independence

of Events
 The probability of an event will sometimes depend upon
whether we know that other events have occurred.
 The conditional probability of an event B, given that an
event A has occurred
P(B|A)
 The independence of events A and B
P(A|B)= and P(B|A)=
1
 Example 1
For a certain population of employees the
percentage passing or failing a job competency
exam, listed according to gender, were as shown
in the accompanying table.

Gender
Total Female Male (M) Outcome

60 36 24 Pass (A)
40 24 16 Fail
100 60 40 Total
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 An employee is to be selected randomly from this population
Gender
Total Female Male (M) Outcome

60 36 24 Pass (A)
40 24 16 Fail
100 60 40 Total
40/100=0.4
(a)Find the probability of selecting a male
(b)Find the probability of selecting an employee who scored a
40/100=0.4
failing grade 24/100=0.24
(c)Find the probability of selecting a male passing employee

(d)Find the probability that an employee who scored a failing

16/40=0.16/0.4=0.4
grade is a male conditional probability
(e) Are the events A and M independent?
P(A |M)=24/40 = 0.6 === P(A)=60/100=0.6 3
 Conditional Probability and
Independence of Events

Then the conditional probability P(A|B) can

be calculated by the formula:

The complement of a conditional probability

P ( A | B )  1  P( A | B)
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 Example 2

Suppose that a balanced die is tossed once. Find the

probability of observing a “1” given that “an odd
number was obtained”.

Solution:

A: Observe a “1” B : Observe an odd number

P(AB) =1/3 (reduction of the sample space)
OR
P(AB) = P( A ∩ B) / P(B)= (1/6) /(1/2)= 1/3.

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Activity 1( 4 min.)
Suppose that a balanced die is tossed once. Consider the
following events
A: Observe an odd number
B: Observe an even number
C: Observe a 1 or a 2.

(a) Are A and B independent events?

(b) Are A and C independent events?
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 Solution:
A: odd number B:even number C:{1,2}

a) P(A) =1/2 and P(B) = 1/2

P(A|B)=P(A ∩ B)/P(B) =0
 P( A| B)  P( A)
Then A and B are dependent events.

b) P(C)=1/3 and P(A ∩ C)=1/6

P( A|C) = (1/6)/(1/3)=1/2
 P( A|C) = P( A)
Then A and C are independent events.

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Two Laws of Probability
 The Multiplicative Law of Probability

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Two Laws of Probability
The Additive Law of Probability

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 Example 1
If A and B are independent events, show that
1. A and B‘ are independent.
2. A‘ and B‘ independent.

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 Solution:
A and B are independent  P(A ∩ B)= P(A) P(B)

a) P(A ∩ Bʹ)=P(A)-P(A ∩B)

= P(A)-P(A)P(B)
= P(A) [1- P(B)]
= P(A) P(Bʹ)

 A and Bʹ are independent

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b) P(Aʹ ∩ Bʹ) = P(A U B) = 1- P(A UB)
= 1-[P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)]
= 1- P(A) - P(B) +P(A ) P(B)
= [1- P(A)] - P(B) [1-P(A )]
= P(Aʹ) - P(B) P(Aʹ)
= P(Aʹ) [1- P(B)]
= P(Aʹ) P(Bʹ)
Then Aʹ and Bʹ are independent
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Example 2 : Two events A and B are such P(A)=0.2,
P(B)= 0.3 and . Find the following:
a. )
 Example 3
It is known that a patient with a disease will
respond to treatment with probability equal to
0.9. If three patients with the disease are
treated and respond independently, find the
probability that at least one will respond.

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 Example 4
Observation of a waiting line at a medical clinic indicates the
probability that a new arrival will be an emergency case is 1/6.
Find the probability that the rth patient is the first emergency
case. Assume that conditions of arriving patients represent
independent events.

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Let
Er: The rth patient is the first emergency case, r = 1, 2, . . . .
Ai: The ith arrival is not an emergency case.
Then Er = A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ∩ · · · ∩ Ar−1 ∩ Ar.

Applying the multiplicative law, when the events are

independent
P(Er ) = P(A1) P(A2) P(A3) · · · ∩ P(Ar−1) P(Ar)
= (5/6)r−1 (1/6), r = 1, 2, 3, . . . .

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 Example 5
In a game a participant is given three attempts to hit a ball. On
each try, she either scores a hit H or a miss M. The game
requires that the player must alternate which hand she uses in
successive attempts. That is, if she makes her first attempt with
her right hand, she must use her left hand for the second attempt
and her right hand for the third. Her chance of scoring hit with
her right hand is 0.7 and her left hand is 0.4. Assume that the
results of successive attempts are independent and that she wins
the game if she scores at least two hits in a row. If she makes her
first attempt with her right hand what is the probability that she
wins the game?
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 At least two hits in a row
HHM or MHH or HHH
Her first attempt with her right hand
P(HHM) = (.7)(.4)(.3) =.084
(Multiplicative rule in case of independence)
P(MHH) = (.3)(.4)(.7) =.084
P(HHH) = (.7)(.4)(.7) =.196
Probability that she wins the game
= 0.084+0.084+0.196
= 0.364 19
 Example 6
A basketball player has made 80% of his independent foul
shots during the season. Find the probability that in
tonight’s game he…

(a) makes his first basket on his fourth shot

(b)misses for the first time on his fifth attempt

(c) makes his first basket on one of his first three shots
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Define S: Makes a basket shot, P(S)=0.8
M: Miss the shot, P(M)=0.2
a) P(his 1st basket on his 4th shot) =
= P(MMMS) = (0.2)3(0.8) (by independence)
b) P(misses for the first time on his 5th attempt)
= P(SSSSM) = (0.8)4 (0.2)
c) P(makes his first basket on one of his first
three shots)
= P(S or MS or MMS)
= 0.8 + (0.2)(0.8) + (0.2)2(0.8) = 0.992
Or = 1- P(MMM) = 1- (0.2)3 = 0.992
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