Chapter 5

Probability: Probability is used in the case of random experiments where the possible results or
outcomes of the experiment are known to us, but the occurrence of a particular result at a given
point of time is unknown.

Basic terms used in probability:

(i) Sample space: This is the set of all possible results of a random experiment and is denoted by
S.
e.g. the sample space for tossing of a single coin is S = { H,T}
Sample space for tossing of a dice is S= { 1,2,3,4,5,6}

(ii) Event : An event is a part or a subset of the entire sample space.

e.g. getting a head can be denoted by the event A = {H}
Getting a tail can be denoted by the event B = {T}
Getting the number 3 on tossing a dice can be denoted by the event C = {3}

(iii) Probability of an event: Probability of an event A can be given as:-

P (A) = No. of results in A

Total possible results in S

Probability of any event A lies between 0 and 1, i.e. 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1

(iv) Complement of an event: It consists of those elements which are not there in the event, but
are present in the sample space. Complement of an event A is denoted as A bar.

P(A bar) = 1- P(A)

(v) Intersection of two events: This comprises of elements which are common to both the
events X and Y.

(vi) Mutually exclusive events: Two events X and Y are called as mutually exclusive if they do
not have any elements in common. Common elements are given by the intersection of two events
which is denoted by the symbol ∩. Here P (X ∩ Y) = 0

(vii) Union of two events: This comprises of elements which are there in first event X alone or
second event Y alone or in both.
(viii) Mutually exhaustive events: Two events A and B are called as mutually exhaustive if
their elements, when combined, give us the entire sample space. Combining the elements of two
events gives the union of the two events. These are elements which are either present in the first
event or second event or both. Here P(AUB) = 1

Addition theorem: This theorem gives us a relation between union and intersection of two
events.

Let the number of elements in event A be a, number of elements in event B be b and c be the
number of elements common to the events A and B.

n(A) = a, n(B) = b, n(A∩B) = c

n(AUB) = (a-c) + (b-c) +c = a+b-c

P(AUB) = (a+b-c)/n = a/n + b/n –c/n

Therefore, P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)- P(A∩B)

This is called as addition theorem.

We consider an example.
Q1. The probability that a contractor gets a maintenance contract is 0.6 and the probability that
he gets an electrical contract is 0.45. What is the probability that he gets both the contracts when
the probability of getting at least one of them is 0.52?

Solution: Here P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.45, P(AUB) = 0.52, P(A∩B) = ?

Using the addition theorem,

0.52 = 0.6 + 0.45 – P(A∩B)

P(A∩B) = 0.6 + 0.45 – 0.52 = 0.53

Marginal, joint and conditional probabilities

(i) Marginal Probabilities: These are probabilities of single events or their complements. E.g.
P(A), P(A bar), P(B), P(B bar)

(ii) Joint Probabilities: These are the probabilities of intersection between two events or their
complements.e.g. P(A∩B), P( A∩B bar), P(A bar ∩B), P(A bar∩B bar)

(iii) Conditional probabilities: In this case, we find the probability of one event on the
condition that another event has already taken place. i.e. one event is dependent on another
event. For e.g. P(A/B) means that we have to find the probability of event A given that event B
has taken place. P(B/A) means that we have to find the probability of event B given that event A
has taken place. Similarly, we can find P(A/B bar), P(A bar/B), P(A bar/B bar), P(B bar/A),
P(B/A bar), P(B bar/A bar) etc.

We take an example to see how these probabilities can be found.

Q2. Consider the following data.

Skilled (B) Unskilled (B bar) Total

Male (A) 12 20 32

Female (A bar) 15 14 29

Total 27 34 61

(i) Marginal probabilities:

P(A) = 32/61, P(A bar)= 29/61, P(B) = 27/61, P(B bar) = 34/61

(ii) Joint probabilities:

P(A∩B) = 12/61, P( A ∩ B bar) = 20/61, P(A bar∩ B) = 15/61, P(A bar ∩ B bar) = 14/61

(iii) Conditional Probabilities:

P(A/B) = 12/27, P(B/A) = 12/32, P(A/B bar) = 20/34, P(A bar/B)=15/27, P(A bar/B bar) =
14/34, P(B bar/A bar) = 14/29

P(A/B). P(B) = 12/27 x 27/61= 12/61

P(A∩B) = 12/61

Hence we get the result

P(A/B). P(B) = P(A∩B)

The above result is called as the Multiplication theorem.

Similarly, P(B/A). P(A) = 12/32 x 32/61= 12/61

So, P(B/A). P(A) = P(A∩B)

This is another result of the Multiplication theorem.

These two results of the multiplication theorem can be used along with the addition theorem.
Q3. P(A)= 0.6, P(B)= 0.7, P(AUB) = 0.8. Find P(A∩B), P(A/B) and P(B/A)

Solution: First, we use the addition theorem to find P(A∩B) and then using the multiplication
theorem, we can find P(A/B) and P(B/A)

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) –P(A∩B)

0.8 = 0.6 + 0.7 –P(A∩B)

P(A∩B)= 0.6 + 0.7 – 0.8 = 0.5

P(A/B) x 0.7 = 0.5

P(A/B) = 0.5/0.7 = 5/7

P(B/A) x 0.6 = 0.5

P(B/A) = 0.5/0.6 = 5/6

Independent events: If events A and B are independent, then P(A/B) = P(A) and P(B/A) = P(B)

So both the results of the multiplication theorem converge into one result

P(A∩B) = P(A). P(B)

Q4. A husband and wife appear in an interview for 2 vacancies for the same post. The probability of
husband’s selection is 1/7 and that of wife’s selection is 1/5. Assuming these as independent events, what
is the probability that (i) both of them will be selected (ii) only one of them will be selected (iii) none of
them will be selected

Solution: P(A) = 1/7, P(B) = 1/5

(i) P(A∩B) = P(A). P(B)= 1/7 x 1/5 = 1/35

(ii) P(A). P(B bar) + P(A bar). P(B) = P(A) . (1-P(B)) + (1-P(A)). P(B) = 1/7 x 4/5 + 6/7 x 1/5 =
4/35 + 6/35 = 10/35 = 2/7
(iii) P(A bar). P(B bar) = 6/7 x 4/5 = 24/35

Bayes’ Theorem: If A1, A2 and A3 are 3 events which have something in common with another event B,
then P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P(A2∩B) + P(A3∩B)

The Bayes’ theorem can be used along with the multiplication theorem to find the values of probabilities.

Prior and Posterior Probabilities: Prior probabilities are those whose values are available to us based on
past data before an experiment or incident has taken place. Posterior probabilities are those whose values
we find out after the experiment or incident has taken place.

Prior Probabilities Posterior Probabilities

P(A1) P(B/A1) P(A1).P(B/A1)= P(A1∩B) P(A1/B) = P(A1∩B)/P(B)

P(A2) P(B/A2) P(A2).P(B/A2)= P(A2∩B) P(A2/B) = P(A2∩B)/P(B

P(A3) P(B/A3) P(A3).P(B/A3)= P(A3∩B) P(A3/B) = P(A3∩B)/P(B

Total = P(B)

Q5. The probability that an employee at a company uses illegal drugs is 0.08. The probability
that an employee is male is 0.62. Assuming that these events are independent, what is the
probability that a randomly chosen employee is a male drug user?

Solution: P(A) = 0.08, P(B) = 0.62

P(A∩B) = P(A). P(B) = 0.08 x 0.62 = 0.0496

Q6. The probability that a consumer will be exposed to an advertisement for a certain product by
seeing a commercial on television is 0.04. The probability that the consumer will be exposed to
the product by seeing an advertisement on a bill board is 0.06. The two events, being exposed to
commercial and being exposed to the bill board ad, are assumed to be independent.
a. What is the probability that the consumer will be exposed to both advertisements?

b. What is the probability that he or she will be exposed to at least one of the ads?

Solution: P(TV ) = 0.04, P(Bill board) = 0.06

(a) P( TV∩ Bill board) = 0.04 x 0.06 = 0.0024

(b) P(TV U Bill board) = P(TV) + P (Billboard) – P( TV ∩ Billboard) = 0.04 + 0.06 – 0.0024
= 0.0976

Q7. An economist believes that during periods of high economic growth, the US dollar
appreciates with probability 0.70, in periods of moderate economic growth, the dollar appreciates
with 0.40, and during periods of low economic growth, the dollar appreciates with a probability
of 0.20. During any period of time, the probability of high economic growth is 0.30, the
probability of moderate growth 0.50 and probability of low economic growth is 0.20. Suppose
the dollar has been experiencing appreciation during the present period, what is the probability
we are experiencing a period of high economic growth.

Solution : Use the concept of prior and posterior probabilities.

Let D be the event that dollar appreciates. Let H be the event that there is high economic growth,
M is the event that there is moderate economic growth. Let L be the event that there is low
economic growth.

P( D/H) = 0.7, P(D/M) = 0.4, P(D/L) = 0.2, P(H) = 0.3, P(M) = 0.5, P( L) = 0.2

We have to find P ( H/D) = ?

P(D Ω H) = P(D/H) x P(H) = 0.7 x 0.3 = 0.21

P(DΩM) = P(D/M) x P(M) = 0.4 x 0.5 = 0.2

P( DΩL) = P(D/L) x P(L) = 0.2 X 0.2 = 0.04

P(D) = 0.21 + 0.2 + 0.04 = 0.45

P( H/D) = P( D Ω H) / P (D) = 0.21 / 0.45 = 0.47

Q8. Distinguish between Mutually exclusive events and Independent Events

Ans: Mutually exclusive events do not have any elements in common while independent events
do not depend on each other. For mutually exclusive events, P( A∩ B ) = 0 , while for
independent events, P( A∩ B) = P(A). P(B)

Q9. A company has 140 employees, of which 30 are supervisors. Eighty of the employees are
married, and 20% of the married employees are supervisors. If a company employee is randomly
selected, what is the probability that the employee is married and is a supervisor?

Solution: Let S be the event that an employee is a supervisor, M is the event that the employee is
married.

P(S) = 30/140 = 0.214, P(M) = 80/140 = 0.571, P(S/M) = 0.2

P(M∩S) = P(S/M) x P(M) = 0.2 x 0.571 = 0.114

Q10. Patients who suffer from Kidney damage usually require transplantation. 20% donors are
people who agree to donate for a payment which is illegal. 30% of donors are those who are
brain dead and willingly agree and rest of the donors are immediate family members. Kidneys
donated do not always suit the patient and patient’s body rejects and thus he dies. 25% are cases
of such rejections if taken from donors who take payment, 10% rejections happen with cases
where the kidney is taken from brain dead patients, and 2% rejections happen even if the kidney
is donated from immediate family members.

If it is known that a randomly chosen patient who has had kidney transplant has died, what is the
probability that the kidney was purchased illegally.

Solution: Let A1 be the event that donor takes payment, A2 is the event that donor is a brain
dead patient and A3 is the event that donor is a family member. Let B be the event that patient’s
body rejects the kidney and he dies.

P(A1) = 0.2, P(A2) = 0.3, P(A3) = 0.5, P(B/A1) = 0.25, P(B/A2) = 0.1, P(B/A3) = 0.02, We have
to find P(A1/B)

P(A1∩B) = P(B/A1)P(A1) = 0.2 x 0.25 = 0.05, P(A2∩B) = P(B/A2) P(A2) = 0.1 x 0.3 = 0.03
P(A3∩B) = P(B/A3)P(A3) = 0.02 x 0.5 = 0.01

P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P(A2∩B) +P( A3∩B) = 0.05 + 0.03 + 0.01 = 0.09

Hence P(A1/B) = P( A1∩B)/ P(B) = 0.05/ 0.09 = 5/9

Q11. Three machines producing 40%, 35% and 25% of the total output are known to produce
with defective proportion of items as: 0.04, 0.06, and 0.03 respectively. On a particular day, a
unit of output is selected at random, and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it
was produced by the second machine?

Solution: A1 is the event that first machine produces the output, A2 is the event that second
machine produces the output and A3 is the event that third machine produces the output. B is the
event that the item is defective.

P(A1) = 0.4, P(A2) = 0.35, P(A3) = 0.25, P(B/A1) = 0.04, P(B/A2) = 0.06, P(B/A3) = 0.03

P(A1∩B) = P(A1) P(B/A1) = 0.4 x 0.04 = 0.016, P(A2∩B) = P(A2) P(B/A2) = 0.35 x 0.06 =
0.021,

P(A3∩B) = PA3) P(B/A3) = 0.25 x 0.03 = 0.0075

So P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P A2∩B) + P(A3∩B) = 0.016 + 0.021 + 0.0075 = 0.0445

P(A2/B) = P(A2∩B) / P(B) = 0.021/ 0.0445 = 0.47

Q12. Three bags contain 6 red, 4 black; 4 red, 6 black and 5 red, 5 black balls respectively. One
of the bag is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is red, find the
probability that it is drawn from the first bag.

Solution: Let A1 be the event that first bag is selected, A2 is the event that second bag is s
selected and A3 is the event that third bag is selected. B is the event that a red ball is selected.

P(A1) = 1/3, P(A2) = 1/3, P(A3) = 1/3, P(B/A1) = 6/10, P(B/A2) = 4/10, P(B/A3) = 5/10
P(A1/B) = ?

P(A1∩B) = P(A1)P(B/A1) = 1/3 x 6/10 = 1/5, P(A2∩B) = P(A2) P(B/A2) = 1/3 x 4/10 = 2/15

P(A3∩B) = P(A3) P(B/A3) = 1/3 x 5/10 = 1/6

P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P(A2∩B) +P(A3∩B) = 1/5 + 2/15 + 1/6 = ½

P(A1/B) = P(A1∩B)/ P(B) = 1/5 / ½ = 2/5 = 0.4

Q13. 25% of the applicants for a job are known to overrate themselves in their CV. While going
for an interview, 50% of those who overrate themselves somehow manage to get selected and
only 20% of those who do not overate themselves manage to get themselves selected for the job .
Given that the person got selected for the job what is the probability that he had overrated his
CV.

Solution: Let A1 be the event that an applicant overrates himself/herself and let A2 be the event
that applicant does not overrate themselves. Let B be the event that the applicant is selected.

So P(A1) = 0.25, P(A2) = 0.75 because A2 is the complement of A1.

P(B/A1) = 0.5, P(B/A2) = 0.2

P(A1∩B) = P(A1).P(B/A1) = 0.25 x 0.5 = 0.125, P(A2∩B) = P(A2). P(B/A2) = 0.75 x 0.2 = 0.15

P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P (A2∩B) = 0.125 + 0.15 = 0.275

So P(A1/B) = P(A1∩B)/P(B) = 0.125/ 0.275 = 0.45

Q14. A biometric security devise using fingerprints erroneously refuses to admit 1 in 1000
authorized persons from a facility containing classified information. The device will erroneously
admit 1 in 10,00,000 unauthorized persons. Assume that 95% of those who seek access are
authorized. If the alarm goes off and a person is refused admission, what is the probability that
really authorized?
Solution: Here A1 is the event that the person is authorized, A2 is the event that the person is not
authorized, B is the event that the person is refused admission and B bar is the event that the
person is admitted.

P(A1) = 0.95, P(A2) = 0.05, P(B/A1) = 1/1000, P(B bar /A2) = 1/1000000, P(A1/B) = ?

Use Bayes theorem and multiplication theorem, i.e. prior and posterior probabilities.

P( A1 ∩ B) = 0.95 x 1/1000 = 0.00095, P( A2 ∩ B bar) = 0.05 x 1/1000000 = 0.00000005,

P( A2 ∩B) + P( A2 ∩ B bar) = P ( A2)

So P( A2 ∩ B) = P( A2) – P ( A2 ∩ B bar) = 0.05 – 0.00000005 = 0.04999995

P(B) = P( A1∩B) + P( A2∩B) = 0.00095 + 0.04999995 = 0.05094995

P ( A1/B) = P( A1∩B) / P(B) = 0.00095/ 0.05094995 = 0.018

Q15. If P (A∩B) = 0.3, P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.4, can we say that events A and B are independent
events. Give justification for your answer.

Ans: Since P(A∩B) ≠ P(A) . P(B) , hence events A and B are not independent.

Q16. Three machines are used to produce a product. Machine 1 produces 20% of the product,
machine 2 produces 35% of product and the rest are produced using machine 3. Each machine
sometimes produces defective products. Probability of producing defective goods using machine
1 is 0.05, probability of defective goods given it is produced by machine 2 is 0.02 and probability
of defective goods using machine 3 is 0.01. If a random item is selected and is found to be
defective, what is the probability that it was produced in machine 1.

Hint: Use Prior and Posterior probabilities.

Solution: Let A1, A2 and A3 be the events that product is made by machines 1, 2 and 3
respectively.

Let B be the event that the product is defective.

P(A1) = 0.2, P(A2) = 0.35, P(A3) = 0.45, P(B/A1) = 0.05, P(B/A2) = 0.02, P(B/A3) = 0.01

P(A1∩B) = P(A1).P(B/A1) = 0.2 x 0.05 = 0.01, P(A2∩B) = P(A2). P(B/A2) = 0.35 x 0.02 =
0.007,

P(A3∩B) = P(A3). P(B/A3) = 0.45 x 0.01 = 0.0045

P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P(A2∩B) + P(A3∩B) = 0.01 + 0.007 + 0.0045 = 0.0215

P(A1/B) = P(A1∩B) / P(B) = 0.01/ 0.0215 = 0.465

Q17. Three machines producing 40%, 35% and 25% of the total output are known to produce
with defective proportion of items as: 0.04, 0.06, and 0.03 respectively. On a particular day, a
unit of output is selected at random, and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it
was produced by the second machine?

Solution: A1 is the event that first machine produces the output, A2 is the event that second
machine produces the output and A3 is the event that third machine produces the output. B is the
event that the item is defective.

P(A1) = 0.4, P(A2) = 0.35, P(A3) = 0.25, P(B/A1) = 0.04, P(B/A2) = 0.06, P(B/A3) = 0.03

P(A1∩B) = P(A1) P(B/A1) = 0.4 x 0.04 = 0.016, P(A2∩B) = P(A2) P(B/A2) = 0.35 x 0.06 =
0.021,

P(A3∩B) = PA3) P(B/A3) = 0.25 x 0.03 = 0.0075

So P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P A2∩B) + P(A3∩B) = 0.016 + 0.021 + 0.0075 = 0.0445

P(A2/B) = P(A2∩B) / P(B) = 0.021/ 0.0445 = 0.47

Q18. A manufacturing firm purchases a certain component, for its manufacturing process, from 3
subcontractors A, B and C. These supply 60%, 30% and 10% of the firm’s requirements
respectively. It is known that 2%, 5% and 8% of the items supplied by the respective suppliers
are defective. On a particular day, a normal shipment arrives from each of the 3 suppliers and the
contents get mixed. A component is chosen at random from the day’s shipment.
(a) What is the probability that it is defective?

(b) If the component is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was supplied by (i) A
(ii) B (iii) C?

Solution: A1 is the event that first machine produces the output, A2 is the event that second
machine produces the output and A3 is the event that third machine produces the output. B is the
event that the item is defective.

P(A1) = 0.6, P(A2) = 0.30, P(A3) = 0.1, P(B/A1) = 0.02, P(B/A2) = 0.05, P(B/A3) = 0.08

P(A1∩B) = P(A1) P(B/A1) = 0.6 x 0.02 = 0.012, P(A2∩B) = P(A2) P(B/A2) = 0.3 x 0.05 =
0.015, P(A3∩B) = PA3) P(B/A3) = 0.1 x 0.08 = 0.008

So P(B) = P(A1∩B) + P A2∩B) + P(A3∩B) = 0.012 + 0.015 + 0.008 = 0.035

P(A1/B) = P(A1∩B) / P(B) = 0.012/ 0.035 = 0.34

P(A2/B) = P(A2∩B) / P(B) = 0.015/ 0.035 = 0.43

P(A3/B) = P(A3∩B) / P(B) = 0.008/ 0.035 = 0.23

Unsolved questions

Q19. It is known that 40% of the students in a certain college are girls and 50% of the students
are above the median height. If 2/3 of the boys are above median height, what is the probability
that a randomly selected student who is below the median height is a girl?

Ans: Use multiplication theorem

P(G/M bar) = 0.6 where G is the event that a student is a girl, M is the event that a student has
above median height and M bar is the event that a student has below median height.
Q20. Computers A and B are to be marketed. A salesman who is assigned the job of finding
customers for them has 60% and 40% chances respectively of succeeding in case of computer A
and B. The two computers can be sold independently. Given that the salesman is able to sell at
least one computer, what is the probability that computer A has been sold?

Ans: P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B) = 0.6 + 0.4 – (0.6)(0.4) = 0.76