PROBABILITY

Point of Discussion:
❑ Sample Space & Favourable Condition
❑ Type of Event
❑ Probability: Mathematical Answer
❑ Complementary Probability
❑ Conditional Probability
❑ Total Probability & Baye’s Theorem
Selection Taking Any Number At A Time
 Combination
Example:
There are three rooms in a motel: one single, one double and one for
four persons. How many ways are there to house seven persons in these
rooms ?
A) 7! / (1! 2! 3!)
B) 7!
C) 7! / 3
D) 7! / (4! 2!)
 Combination
Practice Question 1:
Q. A polygon has 44 diagonals. What is the number of its sides?
A) 11
B) 9
C) 7
D) 5
 Combination
Practice Question 2:
Q. 6 members need to be selected from different field out of 10 from
java, 5 from Microsoft, 8 from Oracle, 2 from IBM. What is the possible
combination?
A) 120
B) 12880
C) 168000
D) 14400
 Combination
Practice Question 3:
Q. A box contains 2 red coins, 3 green coins and 4 blue coins. In how
many ways can 3 coins be chosen such that at least one coin is green?
A) 28
B) 128
C) 64
D) 84
 Combination
Practice Question 4:
Q. A library has a option of 6 different Fictions, 5 different Adventures, 4
different Literature books. If a member decides to choose at least one
each of fiction and Literature, how many ways can she make her
choices?
A) 120
B) 945
C) 1024
D) 30240
Probability
Concept of Sample Space & Favourable Condition
 Sample Space & Favourable Condition
Practice Question:
Q. 10 dices and 5 coins are tossed together. What is the sample space?
A) 𝟏𝟎𝟔 x 𝟐𝟓
B) 𝟔𝟏𝟎 + 𝟐𝟓
C) 𝟔𝟏𝟎 x 𝟐𝟓
D) 50
Probability Mathematical Answer & Total Probability
 Probability Mathematical Answer & Total Probability
Example 1:
Q. Three dices are thrown simultaneously. What is the probability of
getting a triplet?
𝟏
A)
𝟐𝟏𝟔
𝟏
B)
𝟔
𝟏
C)
𝟑
𝟏
D)
𝟑𝟔
 Probability Mathematical Answer & Total Probability
Example 2
Q. There are 6 orange, 2 pink, 4 yellow and 3 green towels in a carton. If
the towels are distinguishable, what is the probability of picking up 2
orange towels randomly?
A) 1/7
B) 2/15
C) 2/7
D) 6/15
 Probability Mathematical Answer & Total Probability
Example 3:
The probability that ‘A’ speaks truth is 80% and that for ‘B’ is 90%. What
is the probability that they contradict each other?
A) 10%
B) 20%
C) 28%
D) 26%
E) 80%
 Probability Mathematical Answer & Total Probability
Practice Question 1:
Q. 6 Engineers and 5 MBAs appear for a job interview. If three candidate
is to be selected, what would be the probability that at least two of
them are engineers?
A) 5/11
B) 1/11
C) 19/33
D) 4/33
 Probability Mathematical Answer & Total Probability
Practice Question 2:
Q. Ramesh has a garments shop. He currently has 6 black, 4 red, 2
white and 3 blue shirts of same size in the stock. He picks 2 shirts
randomly for the display. What is the probability that either both
shirts are white or blue?
A) 1/105
B) 1/35
C) 4/105
D) 1/15
 Probability Mathematical Answer & Total Probability
Practice Question 3:
Q. In a charity show, tickets numbered consecutively from 101 through
350 are placed in a box. What is the probability that a ticket selected at
random (blindly) will have a number with a hundredth digit of 2?
A) 0.285
B) 2/5
C) 99/225
D) 47/205
 Probability Mathematical Answer & Total Probability
Practice Question 4
Q. Ram and Ramesh appeared in an interview for two vacancies in the
same department. The probability of Ram’s selection is 1/6 and that of
Ramesh is 1/8. What is the probability that only one of them will be
selected?
𝟒𝟕
A)
𝟒𝟖
𝟏
B)
𝟒
𝟏𝟑
C)
𝟒𝟖
𝟑𝟓
D)
𝟒𝟖
Complementary Probability
 Complementary Probability
Example:
Q. If x is chosen at random from the set {1, 2, 3, 4} and y is to be chosen
at random from the set {5, 6, 7}, then what is the probability that xy
will be even?
A) 5/6
B) 2/6
C) 2/3
D) 1/2
 Complementary Probability
Practice Question 1:
Q. In a race where 12 cars are running, the chance that car X will win is
1/6, that Y will win is 1/10 and that Z will win is 1/8. Assuming that a
dead heat is impossible, find the chance that one of them will win.
A) 1/140
B) 1/180
C) 27/410
D) 47/120
 Complementary Probability
Practice Question 2:
Q. In a race, the odds in favour of cars P, Q, R, S are 1 : 3, 1 : 4, 1 : 5 and
1 : 6 respectively. Considering a dead rubber is not possible, find the
probability that one of them wins the race.
A) 101/420
B) 3/7
C) 319/420
D) 4/7
Binomial Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
Example:
Q. The probability that head appears on a single throw of a biased coin
𝟐
is . If this coin is thrown 5 times, what is the probability that head
𝟑
appears 3 times?
𝟐𝟎
A)
𝟑
𝟐 𝟑 𝟏 𝟐
B) ( ) x ( )
𝟑 𝟑
𝟐 𝟑
C) 10 x ( )
𝟑
𝟐 𝟑 𝟏 𝟐
D) 10 x ( ) x ( )
𝟑 𝟑
 Binomial Distribution
Practice Question:
Q. The probability that a bus comes to stop on time is 90%. What is the
probability that it would come to stop on time on 5 occasion out of 7
occasions?
𝟗
A)
𝟐𝟎
𝟗 𝟓 𝟏 𝟐
B) ( ) x( )
𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎
𝟗 𝟓 𝟏 𝟐
C) 21 x( ) x ( )
𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎
𝟓 𝟗 𝟓 𝟏 𝟐
D) x( ) x( )
𝟕 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎
Conditional Probability & Baye’s Theorem
Conditional Probability & Baye’s Theorem
 Conditional Probability & Baye’s Theorem
Example:
Q. A life insurance company insured 25,000 young boys, 14,000 young
girls and 16,000 young adults. The probability of death within 10 years
of a young boy, young girl and a young adult are 0.02, 0.03 and 0.15
respectively. One insured person dies. What is the probability that the
dead person is a young boy?
A) 36/165
B) 25/166
C) 26/165
D) 32/165
 Conditional Probability & Baye’s Theorem
Practice Question 1:
Q. 50% of all people who receive a 1st interview receive a 2nd interview;
95% of your friends that got a 2nd interview felt they had a good 1st
interview; 75% of your friends that DID NOT get a 2nd interview felt they
had a good 1st interview. If your friend Chandu felt that he had a good
first interview, what is the probability he will receive a 2nd interview?
A) 15/34
B) 11/20
C) 9/20
D) 19/34
 Conditional Probability & Baye’s Theorem
Practice Question 2:
Q. Suppose that a shop has an equal number of LED bulbs of two
different types. The probability of an LED bulb lasting more than 100
hours given that it is of Type 1 is 0.7, and given that it is of Type 2 is 0.4.
The probability that an LED bulb chosen uniformly at random lasts more
than 100 hours is :
A) 0.55
B) 0.7
C) 0.4
D) 0.35
 Summery
❑ Sample Space & Favourable Condition
❑ Type of Event
❑ Probability: Mathematical Answer
❑ Complementary Probability
❑ Conditional Probability
❑ Total Probability & Baye’s Theorem
 Next Lesson
❑ HCF & LCM
 Thank You
Victor Banerjee