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Article history: An explosion overpressure analysis is a routine part of compliance with the American Petroleum Institute
Received 6 June 2013 (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 752 and 753. A basic consequence analysis often attempts to
Received in revised form demonstrate a few scenarios that may appear to have the most extreme consequences; however, these
16 April 2014
scenarios may also have extremely low likelihoods of occurrence. To have a better understanding of how
Accepted 21 April 2014
likely as well as how extreme a consequence may be, risk-based analysis is often required. One method
used for this is an overpressure exceedance analysis which uses overpressure results from many po-
Keywords:
tential explosion scenarios coupled with the probability of each scenario. Pressureeimpulse curves can
API RP 752
Building siting
make better use of the explosion model’s outputs (pressure and impulse) in order to predict building
Quantitative risk analysis damage and possible impacts to personnel. Using this type of analysis with a building damageefatality
QRA relationship, an FeN style curve can be created which shows the cumulative frequency vs. the number of
FeN curve potential fatalities. Generation of FeN curves can help to better define the risks to building occupants,
Overpressure exceedance provide an additional means of evaluating a building’s acceptability, and can serve as a part of a quan-
titative risk analysis (QRA) for facility personnel. This paper will discuss the method used to predict the
probabilities of building occupant fatalities for use in an FeN curve, as well as the benefits and potential
problems with this type of analysis.
Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2014.04.008
0950-4230/Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article in press as: Marx, J. D., & Werts, K. M., Application of FeN curves in API RP 752 building siting studies, Journal of Loss
Prevention in the Process Industries (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2014.04.008
2 J.D. Marx, K.M. Werts / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries xxx (2014) 1e6
impacts on a building from various explosion scenarios. Maximum must consider all potential release sources and each potential ex-
impacts, because they are derived from worst case scenarios, usu- plosion site. Release and dispersion modeling is conducted for each
ally occur at low frequencies, making their application limited in a potential flammable fluid release selected. The dispersion behavior
building siting analysis. of flammable vapors is calculated using the lower flammable limit
To provide more useful explosion impact data, the analysis can (LFL) as the endpoint.
proceed to a fully quantitative approach. This process uses a much Each explosion event will be characterized by the fuel reactivity
more expansive set of explosion events to quantitatively describe the (specific to the released material), the volume involved, and the
hazards (explosion impacts) coupled with quantitative methods to confinement/congestion parameters. Due to the many combina-
describe the probability of each event. Event probabilities are tions of release events, hole sizes, weather conditions, and available
developed using tools such as equipment failure rate databases, confinement/congestion locations in a typical petrochemical pro-
ignition probability models, and local weather data. Quantitative cess plant, a complete list of explosion events will often number in
approaches for determining occupied building explosion impacts the tens (or sometimes hundreds) of thousands.
follow the methodology of a quantitative risk analysis (QRA), but do In order to produce an FeN curve, a quantitative explosion
not include potential toxic and fire impacts to the building. Because of analysis must first produce results in one of two forms: over-
this, these approaches cannot be referred to as full measures of risk pressure exceedance curves or building damage curves. These
since they do not fully describe the total risk to building occupants. A curves describe, probabilistically, the potential for a building to
QRA methodology follows these steps: experience varying levels of overpressure or varying levels of
damage. From this information, a relationship between building
Accident scenario selection damage and occupant fatalities is required in order to predict
Multiple release locations and release sizes building occupant fatalities for each explosion event. However,
Defined set of potential explosion sites (PESs) when a building is occupied by more than one person, a simple
Dispersion analysis relationship between building damage and probability of fatality
Multiple atmospheric stabilities, wind speeds, and wind does not clearly define the number of fatalities (N, in the FeN
directions curve) in any explosion event. Thus, an extension of the simple
Explosion modeling approach is required to properly construct an FeN curve.
Comparison of flammable cloud volume to PES volume
Calculation of source strength (energy) to predict over- 3. Example analysis
pressures and impulses
Probability analysis Consider a small hydrocarbon processing facility with eight
Release event frequencies based on equipment failure rates small equipment groups. The layout of this fictional facility is
Ignition probabilities and weather condition probabilities shown in Fig. 1. In the figure, the facility’s four occupied buildings
Combination of consequences and probabilities for use in risk are labeled and the PESs (regions of congestion due to process
measures equipment) are shown as dashed-outline polygons. The PESs have
various properties of confinement and congestion due to the
This methodology is consistent with that published by CCPS obstacle density and restriction of flame expansion that is present
(CCPS, 2000) for chemical process QRAs. It begins with accident in each particular area. All the flammable materials evaluated in
scenario selection and, in the context of vapor cloud explosions, this example can be characterized as medium reactivity.
Please cite this article in press as: Marx, J. D., & Werts, K. M., Application of FeN curves in API RP 752 building siting studies, Journal of Loss
Prevention in the Process Industries (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2014.04.008
J.D. Marx, K.M. Werts / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries xxx (2014) 1e6 3
When the potential release scenarios are identified and evalu- The next potential step in blast wave evaluation is to also
ated with the PESs chosen for this facility, a set of potential ex- include the impulse corresponding to each incident overpressure. A
plosion scenarios is developed. Using the risk-based methodology relationship between pressure and impulse pairs and a range of
described above, the required data is generated so that over- expected damage levels can be determined by using PeI curves
pressure exceedance curves (OECs) and probability of building developed for specific building construction types (or specific
damage curves can be constructed. buildings). For this work, PeI curves from a U.S. Department of
Defense (DOD) report (DOD, 2009) were used. The DOD report
describes the methodology and algorithms implemented in their
4. Overpressure exceedance curves
SAFER software, which is used to perform risk-based explosion
analyses. Of the PeI curves presented by the DOD report, the subset
To construct an OEC, the list of potential explosion events is
of curves presented in Fig. 3 were selected as the most represen-
evaluated in reference to one specific location (typically the closest
tative of the buildings in the example problem. The curves are
point on the building to the process areas). The explosion model is
labeled as representative of a “small un-reinforced brick structure,”
run for each event, and the resulting overpressure at that point is
and are assumed to represent all buildings in the analysis. (NOTE:
calculated. For any building, multiple points may need to be evalu-
PeI curves are very specific to building construction, and even to
ated in order to account for shorter distances between the different
specific structural members; care should be taken when selecting
sides of the building and the various PESs that exist around it.
PeI curves for use in an explosion analysis.)
The construction of an OEC involves creating a data set of predicted
The PeI curves presented by DOD represent percent damage
overpressure (for the specified location of concern) and probability
levels (0.1%e100%) that a building may sustain in an explosion. It is
pairs for the entire range of explosion events considered in the
important to note that within the DOD methodology, building
analysis. Each data point represents a unique explosion event and its
damage is not a measure of building collapse, but rather, the level of
specific probability of occurrence. The data set is then sorted by peak
damage that necessitates repair or replacement of the building.
overpressure from high to low. An exceedance curve is generated by
100% damage is equated to a complete financial and functional loss
creating a cumulative sum of the probability values, beginning with
and is the point where the building is no longer inhabitable. This
the probability of the highest overpressure value. Thus, for any over-
does not mean that the building has completely collapsed or is
pressure value represented by the exceedance curve, the probability is
grossly displaced, although partial collapse is possible.
the summation of the probability of that particular overpressure plus
Also shown in Fig. 3 are the PeI pairs predicted in this analysis.
the probabilities of all events resulting in higher overpressures at the
Each data point on the plot represents the potential impacts of one
specified location. The exceedance curve then represents the proba-
explosion event on a wall of one building; the entire data set
bility of experiencing or exceeding a particular overpressure value for
contains approximately 25,000 pressureeimpulse pairs per build-
the location specified. Exceedance curves for the buildings in the
ing. Based on the selected PeI curves in the figure, the impacts from
example facility are shown in Fig. 2.
most of the explosion events are well below the 1% damage level
(no/negligible damage). As suggested in the OECs in Fig. 2, the
5. Building damage estimates from PeI curves potential explosion scenarios will not have a measurable impact on
the office and security buildings. These buildings are removed from
Overpressure exceedance curves demonstrate the overpressure further analysis.
impacts following vapor cloud explosions, without taking into ac- The predicted damage levels for the remaining two buildings
count the corresponding impulse. While overpressure-only extends to about 50% for the control room and slightly more than
methods may provide the characteristic measure of potential 80% building damage for the lab building at the upper end. The PeI
building damage, a more complete description of the explosion’s data was compared to the PeI curves to determine the percent
blast wave effects involves both the peak overpressure and the building damage for each explosion event. Because each PeI pair
corresponding impulse. has a corresponding probability, a new data set of event probability
versus building damage, or the probability of building damage
curve can be constructed:
Please cite this article in press as: Marx, J. D., & Werts, K. M., Application of FeN curves in API RP 752 building siting studies, Journal of Loss
Prevention in the Process Industries (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2014.04.008
4 J.D. Marx, K.M. Werts / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries xxx (2014) 1e6
Data are sorted based on the level of building damage (0%e Table 1
100%). Occupied building populations.
Beginning with the highest value of building damage, a cumu- Building evaluated Worker population by shift
lative sum of probability is generated, moving from high to low Day Night
values of building damage.
Control room 12 3
A plot is constructed which shows level of building damage
Lab 5 2
versus cumulative probability.
Where an OEC represents a cumulative summary of the over- To determine Pshift, the worker populations in each building are
pressure and probability of a full range of events that could affect a required. Table 1 presents an assumed set of population values for
building, the probability of building damage curve represents a application in this study. In this case, a conditional probability of
cumulative summary of building damage for that range of events. Pshift ¼ 0.5 was used for both day and night shift. Building occu-
Both methods can help to identify which buildings need further pancies were assumed to be constant for either shift every day of
analysis or mitigation measures. The result of performing the cu- the year.
mulative sum on the building damage data is shown in Fig. 4 for the When the impact of an explosion on a building is evaluated with
lab and control buildings. This graph shows that for either building, respect to the number of building occupants fatally affected, a
the probability of doing more than about 20% damage is less than relationship between the level of impact and percent fatality is
1.0 104 per year. While this information can be useful in applied. This calculation is straightforward if there is only one
determining risk to buildings, further work is required to estimate worker in a given building. If a specific probability of fatality within
the risk posed on building occupants. a building is 0.1 for a given explosion event, the single worker in
that building has a probability of fatality of 0.1 for that event.
However, if there are two people in a building, a single fatality
6. Determining fatality probabilities probability is harder to determine since there is a probability of
killing one worker, a probability of killing the other, the probability
The first factor to be considered when constructing an FeN that both persons will be fatalities, as well as the potential of no
curve is the amount of time a certain worker population spends fatalities. To determine the probability of each of these outcomes
inside a building. Because the same number of people are not inside for a given building population, the following equation was
the building 24 hours per day (various shifts, worker groups, and applied:
working patterns), a conditional probability is assigned to each
population to account for occupancy. The frequency of each ex- N ðKNÞ
plosion event that a worker shift may be exposed to is based on K!
PN ¼ $ Pf $ 1 Pf (2)
annual equipment failure rates which are further modified by N!ðK NÞ!
conditional probabilities (weather conditions, ignition, etc.). For
each explosion event and worker shift that is considered in the where: K ¼ number of persons in the building
analysis, the following equation is applied:
N ¼ number of fatalities
fG ¼ Pshift $fe (1) Pf ¼ probability of fatality for a given explosion event
PN ¼ probability of fatality for N persons
where: fG ¼ frequency of a worker group experiencing an event
Application of Equation (2) results in Kþ1 probability values. For
Pshift ¼ conditional probability of that shift example, if there are four building occupants, there are distinct
fe ¼ frequency of event that affects the building possibilities of fatality of 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 of those persons in an ex-
plosion event. Table 2 demonstrates the probabilities associated
with each of these possibilities when there are four building oc-
cupants and a probability of fatality due to the explosion of 15%.
The Kþ1 probability values from Equation (2) are applied to the
value calculated by Equation (1) to determine a set of f/N pairs for
each explosion event.
fN ¼ PN $fG (3)
Table 2
Probabilities of N fatalities (K ¼ 4, Pf ¼ 0.15).
4 0.000506
3 0.011475
2 0.097538
1 0.368475
0 0.522006
Fig. 4. Probability of building damage for lab and control buildings.
Please cite this article in press as: Marx, J. D., & Werts, K. M., Application of FeN curves in API RP 752 building siting studies, Journal of Loss
Prevention in the Process Industries (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2014.04.008
J.D. Marx, K.M. Werts / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries xxx (2014) 1e6 5
6 35%
30%
5
25%
Inside Building
4 20%
15%
3
10%
2 5%
0%
1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Predicted Building Damage (from P-I Curves)
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Fig. 7. DOD curve for relationship between building damage and probability of fatality.
Probability of Seroius Injury/Fatality
Fig. 5. CCPS Relationship between overpressure and probability of fatality. For building overpressure as well as impulse to determine a percent building
type “D”.
damage, which is then used to determine a percent fatality for
building occupants. The building damage versus percent fatality
relationship for a “small un-reinforced brick structure” is presented
published methods to determine this probability. Three methods
in Fig. 7. Using the same methodology discussed above, a level of
are outlined in this paper.
fatality is determined for each instance of building damage (or each
The first method was published by the Center for Chemical
PeI pair).
Process Safety (CCPS, 1996) in the book Evaluating Process Plant
With building damage versus fatality relationships (Figs. 5e7),
Buildings for External Explosions and Fires. A graphical relationship
the impacts of each explosion event can be related to occupant
was presented between peak side-on overpressure and probability
fatality. Each explosion event then can be represented by its
of serious injury/fatality for several general building types. The
probability of occurrence (f) and the resulting number of fatalities
curve chosen for use in this analysis was for building type “D” and is
(N) that are predicted to occur within a given building. The cu-
shown in Fig. 5. Building type D is described as one with a “steel or
mulative sum of these values results in an FeN curve. An FeN curve
concrete frame with unreinforced masonry infill or cladding.” With
is created in much the same way as OECs and building damage
this relationship, each overpressure predicted for a building can be
curves:
associated with a probability of fatality. Using Equations (1) and (2),
the probability that each number of fatalities for that building
Frequencyefatality pairs (f/N data points) are sorted based on
population may occur can be determined.
the number of fatalities.
The second relationship chosen for consideration appears in
A cumulative sum (F) of event frequencies is generated, begin-
Guidance for the Location and Design of Occupied Buildings on
ning with the frequency (f) associated with the highest value of
Chemical Manufacturing Sites, published by the UK’s Chemical In-
N, moving to the lowest N.
dustries Association (CIA) (CIA, 1998). It is similar to the CCPS
A plot is constructed which shows fatalities (N) versus cumu-
method in that it presents a relationship between overpressure and
lative probability (F).
percent fatality (as vulnerability). The building type chosen from
the CIA work is type #3, “Typical domestic building: two-storey,
Using this methodology, FeN curves were created for the
brick walls, timber floors.” The overpressureevulnerability rela-
example control room and laboratory building occupants based on
tionship for this type of building is presented in Fig. 6.
the CCPS, CIA, and DOD building damage or overpressure versus
The final relationship chosen was the method presented in the
occupant fatality (vulnerability) relationships. The results of this
DOD report, from which the PeI curves were taken. This method
effort are shown in Fig. 8.
differs from the CCPS and CIA relationships in that it uses
7. Evaluation
Please cite this article in press as: Marx, J. D., & Werts, K. M., Application of FeN curves in API RP 752 building siting studies, Journal of Loss
Prevention in the Process Industries (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2014.04.008
6 J.D. Marx, K.M. Werts / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries xxx (2014) 1e6
8. Conclusions
Please cite this article in press as: Marx, J. D., & Werts, K. M., Application of FeN curves in API RP 752 building siting studies, Journal of Loss
Prevention in the Process Industries (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2014.04.008