IGCSE Population and GCSE Population

IGCSE Population and GCSE Population

Specification:

1.1 Population dynamics

Candidates should be able to:
• Describe and suggest reasons for the rapid increase in the world’s
population in recent times, ‘the population explosion’.
• Define the main components influencing population growth – birth
rate, death rate and migration.
• Describe the relationship between population growth and resources and
explain why problems may result in some areas such as over-population
and under-population.
• Identify and suggest reasons for contrasting patterns of population
growth in different world areas as influenced by differences in birth rate,
death rate and migration. Factors affecting these influences should be
considered such as differences in social, economic and other factors, e.g.
government policies and their impact upon birth rates, differences in
health care, social and other factors influencing death rates, especially
the impact of HIV/AIDS. These factors should be illustrated by
reference to selected examples.
• Describe the consequences (benefits and problems) of different
patterns of population growth. Consideration should be given to
variations in the size and nature of dependent populations and standards
of living.
• Identify and suggest reasons for different types of population structure
as shown by age/sex pyramids. Candidates should be able to describe
population pyramids and relate them to the different stages of the
Demographic Transition Model.
• Identify the major influences on population density and population
distribution. Reference should be made to physical, economic and
human factors.
• Throughout their study of population, candidates should make use of
statistics, graphs, diagrams and maps. Such exercises could bond the
preparation of candidates for Paper 1 and the other components of the
IGCSE Geography examination.

The study of population is often referred to as demography. Population

is one of the most important IGCSE topics because other topics are
based upon it and it always appears as a question in paper 1 of your
examination.

Population Density: The number of people living in a given area,

usually per km2. Singapore is a country with a very high population
density and Australia is a country with a very low population density. El
Salvador has the highest population density in Central America.

Population Distribution: This is how a population is spread out around

a country or an area. If a country's population is distributed in a regular
pattern then we say it has an even population distribution. However, if
there are areas with many people and then areas with few people, then
we would say that it has an uneven population distribution.

Looking at the map of Australia, you can see that it has a very
uneven population distribution. If I was to describe the population
distribution I might say:

There is a high concentration of people along the east and south east
coast around Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne
There is a small concentration on the south west coast around Perth
There is a concentration of people around the coast on the island of
Tasmania
Most people live in coastal areas
Not many people live in the centre or north of Australia.
Two other good words to describe population are dense and sparse.

Sparse population: When not many people live in an area e.g. the
centre of Australia.

Dense population: When a lot of people live in an area e.g. the

Melbourne area.

If a question only asks you to describe distribution, then you just say
what you see on the map, using words like dense, sparse, even and
uneven. If places are named on the map, you can refer to place
names, if not you can use compass points to help you describe.

If the question asks you to explain the population distribution, then

you have to start giving reasons for the distribution. To do that you
could use some of the reasons found in the table below. Population
distribution can be impacted by human and physical factors.

Causes of Sparse Population Causes of Dense Population

Mountainous area e.g. Coastal areas that are good for fishing,
Himalayas that are hard to trading etc.
build houses and transports A flat area of land that is easy to build
links on. on
Very hot or very cold area e.g. Areas that are close to a good supply of
Sahara desert or Antarctica water e.g. River Thames in London.
A heavily forested area e.g. the Water is important for fishing, drinking,
Amazon Rainforest washing, etc.
Areas that flood a lot e.g. Areas with good natural resources e.g.
Mekong river delta wood or good
No jobs Areas that are close to good fertile
Poor supply of electricity, gas agricultural land
and water Areas with good developed transport
Poor communications links
Shortage of natural resources
No schools or hospitals
Areas that regularly suffer
from natural disasters e.g.
volcanoes or droughts
Plenty of available jobs
Available electricity and water supply
Good communications e.g. internet and
mobile phone network
Good quality schools and hospitals

World Population Growth

When describing a graph it is important to look for changes in
trends e.g. quicker increase, slower increase and also anomalies
(things that don't fit the general trend). It is also very important
to support your findings with evidence (this means figures e.g.
dates and population figures). Below is a good example
describing the population graph to the right.

From 1750 to the present day the world's population has been
constantly increasing. In 1750 the population was less than 1
billion. The population rose very slowly for the next two
hundred years reaching 1.2 billion in 1850 and 2.7 billion in
1950. From 1950 to 2012 the population started to rise at a faster
rate. By 1975 it reached about 4 billion and 2000 about 6 billion.
In the last decade the population has increased at an even faster
rate reaching 7 billion by 2012.

Population growth takes place when birth rates are higher than
death rates (natural increase). In most continents of the world
this is what is happening. The fastest rates of growth are actually
happening in the poorest continents like Africa, Asia and South
America. However, in Europe death rates are actually higher
than birth rates so natural decrease is taking place.

Below is a table listing some of the reasons why birth rates are
high in poorer countries (LEDCs), but death rates are decreasing
and also why birth rates are low in richer countries (MEDCs).

Natural increase: When birth rates are higher than death rates.

Natural decrease: Where death rates are higher than birth rates
Birth rates: The number of births per 1000 of population per year.

Fertility rate: The average number of children a female is expected to

have in their lifetime.

Death rates: The number of deaths per 1000 of population per year.
 BIRTH RATES DEATH RATES

HIGHLack of contraception e.g. Natural disasters (often only

condoms causes short-term increases)
Religious beliefs e.g. belief e.g. Indian Ocean tsunami
against contraception and C onflicts and wars
abortion (Roman Catholicism) Poor medical care
Agricultural based society (need Poor hygiene and sanitation
for people to farm and collect Poor diet (might be a shortage
water) of food or unhealthy food)
High infant mortality (if some Drinking alcohol, smoking or
babies die, couples will be taking drugs
tempted to have more children) Lack of exercise (sedentary
No care homes or pensions so old lifestyle)
dependents will need their Shortage of clean water
children to care for them in old Diseases e.g. cancer and AIDS
age.
Pro-natalist policies
(governments encouraging
couples to have more children)

LOW Availability and affordability of Immunisation programs e.g.

contraception e.g. cheap or free smallpox
condoms Availability of clean water
Emancipation (freedom) of Improved diet and knowledge
women (freedom to get an of diet e.g. five portions of fruit
education and work) and diet
Improved levels of education Improved levels of exercise
(especially female) Improved medical care
Reduced infant mortality Improved preventative testing
Introduction of pensions and care e.g. for cancer so people can be
homes treated before it kills them
Development of the economy
 into secondary and tertiary
sectors
Increasing cost of children
Delayed marriages and fewer
children
Anti-natalist policies e.g. China's
one-child policy
High cost of raising children

Infant mortality: The number of deaths before the age of 1, per 1000
live births per year.

Life expectancy: The average age that someone is expected to live

within a country. Generally, women tend to live a few years longer than
men.

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Demographic means population and transition means change, so the

DTM means the population change model. The DTM looks at how a
country's population may change as it develops. It looks at birth rates,
death rates and total population. The DTM is usually divided into five
stages. Stage 1 is the poorest stage and stage 5 is the richest stage.

Stage 1: Has birth and death rates. Because birth rates and death rates
are both high (no contraception, agricultural-based economy, poor
medical care, etc.), the total population remains low.
Stage 2: Birth rates remain high, but death rates begin to fall. This
causes the total population to increase (natural increase). Death rates fall
because of the introduction of basic medical care.
Stage 3: Birth rates begin to fall, but remain higher than death rates so
total population continues to increase. Birth rates begin to fall because of
better education and the availability of contraception.
Stage 4: Birth rates and death rates are both low so the total population
becomes constant (stays the same).
Stage 5: Birth rates start to fall below death rates so the total population
starts to decline (natural decrease). This is because of delayed marriages,
the cost of children and the emancipation of women.

Natural population increase: When birth rates are higher than death
rates, like in stages 2 and 3 of the DTM.

Natural population decrease: When death rates are higher than birth
rates, like in stage 5 of the DTM.

A country's population can also be changed by immigration and

emigration, but when there is a reference to natural change, it only refers
to changes caused by birth rates and death rates.

Population explosion or population bomb: The rapid population

growth, this might refer to the rapid growth of the world's population in
the last 100 years or the rapid population growth of just one country.

Population Growth

Despite having very high rates of HIV and AIDS South Africa has
experienced population growth over the last century. South Africa's
population has grown because of a combination of natural increase and
net migration gain. South African has experienced natural increase
because birth rates have remained high while death rates have begun to
 fall.

Reasons for high birth rates include:

 Lack of education about family planning

 Poor availability of contraception and cost of contraception
 Polygamy amongst some ethnic groups
 Primary based economy
 High rate of sexual violence often leading to unwanted pregnancies

Reasons for declining death rates include:

 Better testing for and treatment of HIV/AIDS

 Improved water supply
 Improved housing (although large numbers still live in informal
settlements)
 Better education about diet

South Africa also receives large numbers of migrants from countries like
Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Swaziland. This is either because of lack
of economic opportunities in these countries and/or political problems.
Population Pyramids
Population Pyramid: A population pyramid shows the age and sex
structure of the country. It is a type of graph that is divided into males
and females and then age groups.

Young Dependents: The number or the percentage of the population

under the age of 16.

Old Dependents: The number or the percentage of the population over

the age of 65.

Economically Active: People between the ages of 16 and 65. This is

basically the working group.
Obviously some people stay at school past the age of 16, some people
retire before 65 and some people work after 65. Also some people
between 16 and 65 might unemployed. However, when we are look at
entire populations we have to look at averages (the norm).

Dependency Ratio: The ratio between the amount of dependents (old

and young) and the economically active.

Population pyramids can be related to stages in the DTM. If a pyramid

has a wide base it indicates high birth rates. If the groups reduce in size
quickly it indicates high deaths rates. If there are a lot of old dependents
it indicates high life expectancy. If the base curves in, it indicates falling
birth rates
Young and Old Populations (Dependent Populations)

Ageing Population: This is when the proportion of old dependents is

increasing. This happens because life expectancy increases, but also
because birth rates start to fall. This happens in stage 5 of the DTM (it is
currently happening in very developed countries like Japan). A country
with an ageing population might have a higher death rate than you
expect, because old people eventually die even if there life expectancy is
high.
Problems of Ageing population Solutions to Ageing
Population
There may be a shortage of workers (not Increase the retirement age. In
enough economically active) the UK the retirement age has
If there is a shortage of workers there are increased from 65 to 67
less tax payers and the government Increase the amount of tax
receives less money charged to economically
Old people tend to get more sick, so there active.
will be an increase in pressure on Introduce private healthcare,
hospitals so that the government doesn't
In many countries retired people can have to pay
claim pensions off the government. If Encourage people to have
there are a lot of old people this can be private pensions so that the
very expensive. government does not have to
The government has to provide places in pay
care homes or provide services so people Economic immigration could
can care for themselves at home e.g. be encouraged to reduce the
meals on wheels dependency ratio
Have a pro-natalist policy so
that birth rates and the number
of young people increase
 Retirement Age: The age at which people officially stop working. In
many countries they can claim a pension off the government when they
stop working. People have retired are often called pensioners because
they receive a pension.

Pensions: Money that people who have retired receive. The money may
be received from the government or from private pensions.

Despite there being many problems of an ageing population, there are

some advantages, including:

 Less need to spend money on schools

 Older people are less likely to commit crimes
 Old people tend to travel less (no commuting) so congestion and
pollution might reduce.

Young Population: When talking about a young population, you are

usually referring to young dependents (those under the age of 16). You
might refer to a young population if there are too many or too few. Both
can present advantages and disadvantages.
Problems of Young Population (too Solutions of Young
many) Population (too many)
Child care has to be provided so that An anti-natalist policy
parents can return to work. might be introduced like
Governments need to pay so that young China's one child policy.
people can go to school Increase family planning.
Young people get sick so the government Make contraception
has to pay for healthcare available and affordable
An increase in the dependency ratio Ensure females are educated
Creation of teaching and nursing jobs. and emancipated.
 Problems of Young Population (too few) Problems of Young
Population (too few)
Closure of child related services and loss of A pro-nalalist policy to
jobs e.g. schools and nurseries increase birth rates.
Less consumers and taxpayers in the fut2 Subsidised childcare and
ure education to encourage
An increase in the age of the population more families to have more
Birth rates fall below replacement rate children.
cause the population decline. Also in the
future there will be less people in the
reproductive age range causing further
declines.

Replacement Rate: The number of children each couple has to have to

maintain a country's population. The replacement rate is about 2.1 - two
to replace the couple when they die and then 0.1 for children who might
die in infancy or who are unable to have children themselves (infertile).

Reproductive age range: The age that females normally have babies.
Biologically this can be anytime between puberty and menopause but is
more likely to be between 18 and 35.

Below are some advantages of a large and small young population:

Potentially large workforce in the future (too many)

 Population who has grown up understanding modern technology e.g.

computers and the internet (too many)
 Reduced dependency ratio (too few)
 Reduced education and medical costs (too few)

Dependents are cared for differently in LEDCs and MEDCs. In LEDCs

the focus is very much on families to care for dependents, whereas in
MEDCs there is a lot more assistance from the state (government) as
well. Look at the document below to see some of the ways dependents
are cared for.

Japan's Ageing Population

Japan has an ageing population because the birth rates have fallen and it
has one of the world's highest life expectancy's. In fact the islands of
Okinawa off Japan's south coast have the highest life expectancy and the
greatest percentage of centenarians.

Japan has the highest proportion of old dependents (about 23%) and the
lowest proportion of young dependents (about 13%) in the world. It has
a total fertility rate of only 1.25. This is well below the replacement rate
of 2.1.

Even though the Japanese are working longer, it may have to look
outside its borders to prevent future population decline and economic
decline. Japan is traditionally a very insular (closed) country so allowing
large scale immigration would involve huge social and cultural changes.

Centenarian: Someone over the age of 100.

 Pro-natalist Policy: A policy that encourages couples to have more
children. You can not force people to have more children so you have to
offer incentives instead e.g. free childcare or even money.

Governments may have a pro-natalist policy if they have a declining

population and a shortage of young dependents (low birth rates and
fertility rates). A government can't force couples to have more children,
so instead it must offer incentives. Incentives may include:

 Cash payments
 Free or subsidised healthcare
 Free or subsidised education
 Free nurseries or subsidised childcare.
 Reduced tax rates
 Child benefits e.g. weekly or monthly payments
 Free equipment e.g. pushchairs, cots or even washing machines
 Poster and advertising campaigns

Singapore's Pro-natalist Policy

Singapore is a developed country in SE Asia with a population of about

5 million people. For many years the Singaporean government has
believed that Singapore is underpopulated and has tried to increase its
population. Singapore has one of the lowest total fertility rates in the
world, standing at 1.1, which is well below the replacement rate of 2.1.
Already 36% of the Singapore population is made up of foreign
nationals and in some sectors like industry, 80% of the workers are
foreign.

To overcome worker shortages, the Singapore government has

encouraged immigration, but it is also trying to increase the population
through raising birth rates. The government is doing this in a number of
ways. It has increased maternity leave by 50% to 12 weeks and it will
cover the cost of maternity leave (the cost to the parents employers) for
the first four babies. The Singapore government is also increasing child
benefits paid to families. The government will pay money into a special
bank account of up to nearly $1000 for six years. The Singapore
government has also sponsored dating organisations to encourage people
to get married earlier and start having children.

If Singapore's policies are not successful it will become increasingly

dependent on foreign workers, gradually see an increase in the
dependency ratio and ultimately economic decline.

Anti-natalist policy: A policy that attempts to reduce birth rates. This

might be through better education and supply of contraception or
through much stricter policies like China's one child policy.

China - One Child Policy

After China were invaded and occupied by Japan in the World War II,
they wanted to strengthen their military so that it never happened again.
To do this they encouraged citizens to have more children, because a
bigger population potentially meant a stronger army. This policy would
have been fine if China had the resources and technology to match.
However, they did not and coupled with the crippling policies of the
cultural revolution, mass famines ensued. It is estimated that up to 30
million died during the 1960's and 1970's. This was not a sustainable
policy, so the Chinese government was forced to introduce an anti-
natalist policy.

The policy China decided to introduce was extremely strict and probably
not possible in a non-communist country. The government stated that
from 1979 all couples were only allowed to have one child. They also
increased the marriageable age of men to 22. To get married and to have
a child, citizens had to apply to the government. If you applied by these
rules you were entitled to free education, healthcare, housing and given a
job. If you did not follow the rules, then benefits would be removed and
females who were found to be pregnant were given forced abortions and
even sterilised.

To enforce the policy the government relied on community enforcement.

Often elderly residents who were trusted within the community were
asked to inform, elderly female informants were nicknamed 'granny
police'. The strict enforcement of the policy led to a problem of female
infanticide. This is the killing of female babies, because couples
favoured male children. Males ensured the family name was maintained
and were able to work manual jobs, whereas females would be lost after
marriage (females normally went to live with their husbands family).

There were a number of exceptions to the rules, if you had twins or

triplets this was fine, if your first child had a physical or mental
disability you could have a second, families in rural areas (farming
 areas) were often allowed a second, ethnic minorities were allowed a
second and often couples who bribed officials could have a second.

The policy has been relatively successful, birth rates have fallen from a
peak off 44 in the 1950's down to just 12. China's population is also
expected to peak in the next 20 years and then slowly start to decrease.
Because of its success there have been further relaxations including:

 All of families in females areas can now have two

 Two people who marry from single children families they are allowed
two
 Females are better educated about contraception and are free to make
their own choices.

However, there are also a few problems:

China is still overpopulated, there are over 1.3 billion Chinese

 There is a male female imbalance in the population

 People are demanding greater freedom and choice
 China will slowly get an ageing population.
 There are large numbers of abandoned children

Overpopulation, Underpopulation and Optimum Population

Carrying Capacity: The amount of people that the resources of a

country can support. The carrying capacity of a country can change with
improvements in technology e.g. desalination, discoveries of new
resources, or the loss of existing resources e.g. volcanic eruption
destroying farm land.
Overpopulation: When there are more people that the resources
available. Overpopulation might lead to unemployment, famine and
homelessness.

Underpopulation: When there are not enough people to fully maximise

the potential of a country. For example th ere might be vacant
jobs or resources that can not be fully exploited.

Optimum Population: When population and resources are perfectly

matched. In reality this is almost impossible to achieve.
PROBLEMS OF PROBLEMS OF
OVERPOPULATION UNDERPOPULATION
There could be unemployment There are a shortage of workers
because there are not enough jobs for There will be less people paying
everyone tax
There could be a shortage of schools Schools and hospitals may close
and hospitals because there are not enough
There could be a shortage of houses clients
and informal settlements grow Public transport links might close
Congestion may increase as there are because of less customers
more cars, buses, etc. on the road There may be less innovation and
Prices may increase as demand for development (less brain power)
houses, resources, etc. increase Not possible to exploit all
(inflation) resources
There may be a shortage of clean Hard to defend country
drinking water, electricity, etc. Necessary to attract migrants
There may be an increase in air,
noise and water pollution e.g. open
sewers, fires, etc.
The rural-urban fringe may be
damaged as informal settlements are
built
China - Intra country carrying capacities

A country's carrying capacity might vary within its borders - China is an

excellent example of this. The west and north of China will have a fairly
low carrying capacity. This is because the west is fairly mountainous
and the north is mainly desert. However, the east will have a much
higher carrying capacity because it is flatter, has good water supply
(Yellow and Yangtse rivers) and is near the coast.

Theories about population and resources:

Malthus: Malthus looked at population and resources and believed that

population was growing at a much fast rate than resources. He believed
that this would cause a series of preventative and positive checks.
Preventative checks would be people trying to reduce population growth
themselves and positive checks would be famines and conflicts.

Boserup : Boserup was a more optimistic person who believed that

humans always came up with solutions to problems. Her famous saying
was 'necessity is the mother of invention' which basically means that
humans will also find a solution to resource shortages e.g. desalination,
development of renewable energy.
Disease (HIV and AIDS)

HIV: Human immunodeficiency virus

AIDS: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome

HIV was first discovered in 1981 and is believed to be a virus that

crossed over from monkeys to humans in Africa (in Africa it is very
common for people to eat bush meat like monkeys). Worldwide, AIDS
has killed over 25 million people and nearly 3 million extra people
became infected in 2009. HIV is the virus that you catch and AIDS is
basically the name for all the symptoms you catch when your immune
system has been degraded. People normally die from diseases that they
have caught because of there weak immune system e.g. pneumonia.
When HIV was first discovered, victims would have a fairly short like
expectancy (a few years). However, even though there is still no cure
peoples lives can be prolonged for years because of drugs designed to
support your immune system.

HIV is transmitted through infected bodily floods (blood, seamen and

breast milk - it is not possible to transmit through saliva). The infected
bodily flood needs to come into contact with another persons bodily
fluids or mucous membranes found in the mouth, nose, ears and genital
areas. Therefore some of the most common ways of transmitting HIV
are:

Unprotected sexual intercourse with a HIV sufferer

Sharing needles with an infect HIV sufferer (common amongst drug

users)

Receiving a blood transfer from infected blood (nearly all blood around
the world is now tested)
Breast feeding
Mother to unborn child (this can be prevented if the mother knows that
she is infected).

Africa is the continent that has been hardest hit by HIV. As you can see
from the map over 15% of the adult population in Southern Africa suffer
from HIV, this is as high as 40% in some countries like Botswana.
However, even with these high figures, the true figures might be a lot
higher because not everyone has been tested.

CAUSES OF HIGH IMPACTS OF HIV SOLUTIONS TO HIV

HIV RATES
Lack of education about Individually, people Providing free condoms
HIV (causes, will experience a and educating people
transmission, decline in their about how to use them
prevention). immune system, correctly.
Availability and becoming sicker and Educating about what
affordability of possibly dieing. HIV is and explaining
condoms, as well as High cost of having how the spread can be
knowledge of how they to treat HIV and reduced and stopped.
are used. AIDS patients. Because many people in
Pologymy. The tradition There will be an rural Africa may be
of taking more than one effective increase in illiterate education might
wife. the dependency have to be done through
Lack of testing. Much of ration because less posters or theatre
the population does not people will be able (drama).
know that it has HIV. to work because of Test more people to find
Prostitution. Many sickness. out who is infected.
prostitutes are infected The country may see Legalise prostitution to
but don't know so a reduction in encourage more
continue to transmit the tourism and prostitutes to be tested
disease. investment as people and hopefully reduce the
Sexual crime. There is a are reluctant to travel spread of HIV
high rate of sexual crime to a country with Anti-retroviral drugs can
in South Africa which high infection rates. be sold cheaper so that
helps spread the disease The country will more people have access
Urban myths. Many have to pay large to them
uneducated people amounts of money to Hopefully, scientists will
believe myths about be able to buy anti- eventually find a cure for
HIV that are untrue. For retroviral drugs (this HIV so that it can be
example Jacob Zuma is not a cure, but it eliminated.
believed a shower after helps support victimsEncouraging no sex
sex would reduce chanceimmune system). before marriage and
of catching HIV. Life expectancy trying to reduce the
Migrant population. rapidly reduces in number of peoples sexual
When a lot of people countries with high partners.
move for work HIV can infection rates and Try and reduce the stigma
be spread easily between death rates increase. of HIV and AIDS so
communities. There are a large more people talk about it
Religious beliefs. some number of orphans and are happy to be
religions don't allow the as many parents die. tested.
use of condoms. There may be a
However, it must also be shortage of workers
remembered most which can lead to
religions discourage sex economic decline
before marriage and and food shortages.
promote only one sexual There may not be
partner (husband and enough essential
wife) workers like
Poor medical hygiene - teachers.
possibly dirty medical
equipment and untreated
blood

Lesotho

Lesotho is a landlocked country situated inside South Africa. It has a

population of only 1.8 million. It is estimated that over 20% of Lesotho
adults population is infected with HIV or AIDS. In reality the figure
might be much higher because many adults have not been tested.

In Lesotho one innovative to reduce infection rates is to test every adult.

7,500 health care workers have been employed to test every person.
They are even going door to door with testing kits.

Lesotho is now also going to benefit from an agreement made by drugs

companies to lower their prices. In the future anti-retroviral drugs are
going to be 50% cheaper and HIV tests 30% cheaper