How to calculate population change?

- Natural population change is calculated by subtracting the death rate from

the birth rate.

 Birth rate – Death rate = Natural Population Change

E.g: Malta:
 Malta’s birth rate in 2013 was 10.3 per 1000 people.
 Malta’s death rate in 2013 was 8.8 per 1000 people.

10.3 – 8.8 = 1.5

Answer: its natural population change in 2013 was 1.5 per 1000 people
(0.15%).

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How to calculate overall population change?

Overall population change = Birth rate – Death rate (+ or -) the net migration

 Net migration is added - if more people per 1000 move into the
country than move out of it (Immigrants > Emigrants) – positive
number

 Net migration is subtracted - if more move out of the country than

into it, (Immigrants < Emigrants) – negative number

E.g: Malta:
Overall Population Change in Malta:
 Malta’s birth rate in 2013 was 10.3 per 1000 people.
 Malta’s death rate in 2013 was 8.8 per 1000 people.
 Malta’s net migration in 2013 was 2.4 per 1000
people. (Immigrants > Emigrants) – number is positive

10.3 – 8.8 + 2.4 = 3.9 per 1000 people (0.39 %) = (3.9/1000 x 100 = 0.39
%)

*If the answer is positive the population is growing*

*If the answer is negative the population is getting smaller. *
E.g: India
Overall Population Change in India:
 India’s birth rate in 2013 was 20.2 per 1000 people.
 India’s death rate in 2013 was 7.3 per 1000 people.
 India’s net migration in 2013 was -0.1 per 1000
people. (Immigrants < Emigrants) – number is negative
20.2 – 7.3 – 0.1 = 12.8 per 1000 people (1.28 %) (12.8/1000 x 100 = 1.28
%)

*The answer is positive means that the population is growing.*

CHINA – REDUCING POPULATION

Later, Longer, Fewer’ (introduced at 1970) - encouraged parents to:
• delay their first child
• allow a longer interval between births and have fewer children in total.
 By the end of 1979, it was clear that China will not have enough food,
jobs or services to cope with rapidly growing population.

‘One family, one child’ - was introduced due to rapid growth been seen as a
barrier to development.

• Various incentives (free education & health care) - were offered to families
with one child
• Punishments (fines) - offered to them who had more children.

CONSEQUENCES OF THE ‘ONE FAMILY & ONE CHILD’ POLICY

• Various forms of the one-child policy were implemented between 1979
and
2014.
• The fertility rate was reduced from 5.8 to 1.7.
 - This meant that China did not have to cope with around 400 million extra
births.

• But by 2014, with an increasing amount of old people and a shrinking

workforce, the government realized that the policy needed to be changed.

Demographic Transition Model

Definition:
The demographic transition model (DTM) describes how the population of a
country changes over time. It gives changes in birth and death rates,
and shows that countries pass through five stages of population change.
Stage 1 (high fluctuating) - Birth and death rates are both high, but they
fluctuate. Total population is low, but it is balanced due to high birth rates and
high death rates Countries at this stage will usually be undeveloped. However,
there are no longer any countries at this stage of the model.

E.g: No countries in Stage 1, but some tribes in Brazil’s rainforests. UK was

stage 1 before 1760.

Birth rate is high because:

 There is a lack of birth control
 Women also marry young
 Children and need to work in fields to support the family’s income

Death rate is high because:

 Disease
 War
 Famine
 Lack of clean water and medical care
Stage 2: (early expanding) Birth rate remains high, but death rate start to fall
rapidly. Total population will start to rise because the death rates will start to
fall.

E.g: Countries like Nepal and Afghanistan are in Stage 2

Birth rate is high because: (same reasons as in stage 1) +

 Tradition and culture. In some religious beliefs families must be large.
 No availability of contraception
 Children are used to help families with their job
 Due to previous high rates of infant mortality, parents keep having more
babies as hope, that some will survive

Death rate falls due to:

 Improved medical care (vaccinations, scientific improvements, doctors

and new drugs)
 Cleaner water and improved sanitation
 Quality and security of food is improved (less hunger)
* there will be a noticeable decrease in child mortality.
Stage 3: (late expanding) birth rate declines rapidly, death rate continues to fall
but much more slowly. Population growth slows down. The gap between birth
and death rates will narrow.

E.g: Egypt, India, Kenya and Brazil is in Stage 3 - countries at lesser stages
of development. (LEDC)

Birth rates fall due to:

- family planning series are introduced.

- h
- birth control in now widely available - more children will survive (there
is less need to have as many babies as possible).
- gg
- more job opportunities in factories (fewer people & children) are required
to work in farms.
- g
- laws that say children must attend school, so they are no longer earning
for the family.
- gig
- women are more career-minded women & are not ‘staying at home’ to
look after the children.
- g
- women are staying in education longer and marrying later.

Death rate still falling - same reasons as in stage 2

Stage 4 (low fluctuating)- low birth rate and low death rate, both fluctuate.
Total population remains high and stable, while growth is small (as fertility
continues to fall.
There are significant changes in personal lifestyles. Contraception is widely
available and there is a social desire to have smaller families.

E.g: most of Europe and USA are in Stage 4 (MEDC countries)

Low birth rates are due to:

- increased access and demand for luxuries (less money is available for
having children)
- more women in the workforce (women do not have time to take care &
raise children)
 - people have high personal incomes and more leisure interests.

Stage 5: Stage 5 (natural decrease/ declining)- a later period, during which

the birth rate is very low and goes below the death rate (death rate is higher,
then the birth rate). The is no longer replacing itself, it is ageing and will
gradually be dominated by older people

E.g; recognised in recent years in some western European countries and highly
developed rich ones (MEDC) - Japan, Italy, Germany.

Reasons for the low death rate:

 greater financial independence of women
 concern about the impact of increased population numbers on resources
for future generations
 rise in the concept of childlessness (it becomes very expensive to raise a
child and many people have elderly dependents, so have no kids)

Reasons for low death rate: the death rate remains steady or slightly increases.

 there are more elderly people (ageing population), more people may die
of old age despite advances in health care.

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