Chapter II

Covid-19 Pandemic and Global Demography

Manuscript Intended for: Students

Modality: Blended/Flexible Learning
Module No./Subject: No. 2, Contemporary World
Allotted time: 3 hours in Second Week
Author: Dr. Arsenio M. Escalona

I. Learning Outcomes
This lesson intends to prepare students to:
1. Articulate personal definition of global demography and demographic transition
model; 2. Analyze if Covid-19 Pandemic has direct impact on demographic transition; 3.
Explain the theory of demographic transition as it affects global population; 4. Use
current technology to facilitate learning; and
5. Contribute personally and meaningfully to the country’s development.

Introduction
Global demography is the study of population
globally based on factors such as: age, race, sex, and
a study how birth rates and death rates change. The
word global demography was coined by John
Graunt. It also means the statistical and
mathematical study of size compositional and
spatial distribution of human populations and the
changes over time in these aspects through the
operation of the five (5) processes namely: fertility,
morality, marriage, migration and social mobility. It
encompasses the study of the size, structure, and
distribution of these populations and temporal fitnessandwellnessnews.com/the-effect-of-parenthood-on-health/

changes in them in response to birth, aging, death, or incidence of disease. Before this Covid-19
pandemic, the most popular incidents of disease in history that caused a demographic upheaval are the
Black Plague in 15th century Europe were half of the population died and the Potato Blight of Ireland.

Nine (9) Important Terms to Remember

1. Dependency ratio- the number of people who are too young or too old to enter the workforce. Often
dependent on the working forces.
2. Mortality decline-countries suffer small growth rate, caused by cleanliness, hygienic surrounding,
population control, balanced food and health consciousness.
3. Population explosion-the result of improved nutrition, public health infrastructure and medical
care. 4. Working age- if these people are huge numbered in a country, savings per capita will be
bigger.
5. Life expectancy- the average period that a person may expect to live.
6. Birth rate- the total number of live births per 1000 of population in a year.
7. Death rate- the total number of deaths per 1000 of population in a year.
8. Fertility rate- the number of offspring both per mating pair, individual, or
population. 9. Morbidity- condition of being diseased. Amount of disease within a
population.

Policy implications
Rapid and significant demographic change places new demands on national and international policy
making. Transitions from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility can be beneficial to
economies as large baby boom cohorts enter the workforce and save retirement. Rising longevity also
affects the incentives to save for old age, which can affect investment, internal capital flows, and interest
rates.
The ability of countries to realize the potential benefits of the demographic transition and to mitigate the
negative effects of ageing depends crucially on the policy and institutional environment. Attention to the
following areas is likely key in developing effective policy deal with the effects of demographic change.
Demographic transition
In order to effect change, explain the significance of embracing the topic by capitalizing on various
questions discussed earlier. Their respective answers are so important that it would serve as compass to
achieve better plans for the future. These will be integrated in their moral fabric and if ingrained and
hardwired holistically would give better meaning for different terms like: responsible parenthood, pre
marital sex, teenage pregnancy, pornography, HIV Aids, etc. This is the right opportunity for the teacher
to provide accurate information along these very controversial issues and be able to instill instantly
significance of planning the right size for their families, household food security, family income,
emotional security, and spirituality all based on effective adherence to Christian tenets and doctrines.
Likewise, get also their valid opinion regarding the use of condom for safe sex, belief that virginity both
for male and female becoming irrelevant, and couples having twelve (12) children with no stable job and
living in shanties or slum areas. Genuine insights about Godly virtues and true value of life should be
well-explained. Do not ever imitate the mistakes committed by a Senior High School teacher that in
incompetence allowed his students to watch a pornographic material. Teachers have to be so sensitive but
not too ignorant and offensive in emphasizing concerns of Gender and Development. Do not forget to
illustrate the plight of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) sacrificing a lot for their families just to fill in
some gaps in economies of other countries. With their jobs, absence of the working age in Japan and Italy
are solved. Having a population mostly elderly is a chronic problem for their economy. Emphasize also
that in Europe women are not wanting to get married because of their having no time for themselves.
Demographic Transition Model
Demographic transition is a model that describes population change over time. It is based on an
interpretation begun in 1929 by the American Demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes,
or transitions, in births and death rates in industrialized countries over the past two hundred years or so.
By model we mean that it is an idealized, composite picture of population change in these countries.
Demographic transition theory suggest that population grow along a predictable five-stage model.

Five-Stages of Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1: High Stationary.
-pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance, and population growth
is typically very slow and constrained by the available food supply.
High death rates reasons:
1. Lack of knowledge of disease prevention and cure.
2. Outbreaks of infectious diseases such as: influenza, scarlet fever or plague.
3. Water and food borne diseases such as: cholera, typhoid dysentery and diarrhea were common killers,
as well as TB, measles, dipteria and whooping cough.
4. Occasional food shortages and poor water supply.
5. Primitive sanitation. People live in dirty surrounding, inefficient sewage
disposal. -Amazon, Brazil, Bangladesh
Stage 2: Low Death Rate, High Birth Rate. Early Expanding.
-true to developing countries, the death rates drop rapidly due to improvements in food supply and
sanitation, which increase life spans and reduce disease. The improvements specific to food supply
typically include selective breeding and crop rotation and farming techniques. Other improvements
generally include access to technology, basic health care and education.
-Sri Lanka and Peru

Stage 3: Late Expanding.

-Birth rates fall due to access to contraception, increase in wages, urbanization increase in status,
education of women and increase investment in education. Population growth begins to level off. It is
Important to note that birth rate decline is caused also by a transition in values not just because of
contraceptive.
-China and Chile

Stage 4: Low Stationary.

-Birth rates and death rates are both low. The large group born during two stages, it creates an economic
burden on the shrinking population. Death rate may remain consistently low or increase in lifestyle
disease. Little growth in population. The population age structure has become older. People born during
stage 2 are now beginning to age. Birth rates are low as the society is advanced and therefore, women
choose for careers and smaller families to ensure that they have a better quality of life.
-Australia

Stage 5: Declining. Only speculation.

-Fertility rates transition to either below replacement or above replacement. Some believed that the world
population will be forced to stabilized. Perhaps the world will run out of resources or food shortage due to
population growth. Decline birth rate may result because of rising individualism, one child policy, many
decide not to have children at all by being sterilized.
-Italy and Japan