The Theory of Demographic

Transition
The theory of demographic transition is based on the actual
population trends of the advanced countries of the world. According
to this theory, every country passes through three diff6rent stages of
population growth. According to C.P. Blacker they are-
(i) The high stationary phase marked by high fertility and
mortality rates;
(ii) The early expanding phase marked by high fertility and high
but declining mortality;
(iii) The late expanding phase with declining fertility but with
mortality declining more rapidly;
(iv) The low stationary phase with low fertility balanced by equally
low mortality; and
(v) The declining phase with low mortality, lower fertility and an
excess of deaths over births.

First Stage:
In this stage the country is backward and is characterised by high birth
and death rates with the result that the growth rate of population is low.
People mostly live in rural areas and their main occupation is agriculture
which is in a state of backwardness. There are a few simple, light and
small consumer goods industries.

The tertiary sector consisting of transport, commerce, banking and

insurance is underdeveloped. All these factors are responsible for low
incomes and poverty of the masses. Large family is regarded as a
necessity to augment the low family income. Children are an asset to the
society and parents. The existence of the joint family system provides
employment to all children in keeping with their ages.

More children in a family are also regarded as an insurance against old

age by the parents. People being illiterate, ignorant, superstitious and
fatalists are averse to any method of birth control. Children are regarded
as God-given and pre-ordained.
All these economic and social factors are responsible for a high birth rate
in the country. Along with high birth rate the death rate is also high due to
non-nutritional food with a low caloric value, lack of medical facilities and
the lack of any sense of cleanliness.

People live in dirty and unhealthy surroundings in ill ventilated small

houses. As a result, they are disease-ridden and the absence of proper
medical care results in large deaths. The mortality rate is the highest
among the children and the next among women of child-bearing age.
Thus the birth rates and death rates remain approximately equal over
time so that a static equilibrium with zero population growth prevails.

According to Blacker, this stage continued in Western Europe

approximately up to 1840 and in India and China till 1900. This is
illustrated in Fig. 1 (A) by the time period HS- “High Stationary” stage and
by the horizontal portion of the P (population) curve in the lower portion of
the figure.

Second Stage:
In the second stage, the economy enters the phase of economic growth.
Agricultural and industrial productivity increases, and means of transport
develop. There is greater mobility of labour. Education expands. Incomes
increase. People get more and better quality food products, medical and
health facilities are expanded.
Modern drugs are used by the people. All these factors bring down the
death rate. But the birth rate is almost stable. People do not have any
inclination to reduce the birth of children because with economic growth
employment opportunities increase and children are able to add more to
the family income.

With improvements in the standard of living and the dietary habits of the
people, the life expectancy also increases. People do not make any effort
to control the size of family because of the presence of religious dogmas
and social taboos towards family planning.

Of all the factors in economic growth it is difficult to break with the past
social institutions, customs and beliefs. As a result of these factors, the
birth rate remains at the previous high level. With the decline in the death
rate and no change in the birth rate, population increases at a rapid rate.
This leads to Population Explosion.

This is an “Early Expanding” (EE) stage in population development when

the population growth curve is rising from A to B as shown in Fig. 1(B),
with the decline in death rate and no change in birth rate, as shown in the
upper portion of the figure. According to Blacker, 40% of the world
population was in this stage up to 1930. Many countries of Africa are still
in this stage.

Third Stage:
In this stage, birth rate starts declining accompanied by death rates
declining rapidly. With better medical facilities, the survival rate of children
increases. People are not willing to support large families. The country is
burdened with the growing population. People adopt the use of
contraceptives so as to limit families.

Birth rates decline a initially in urban areas, according to Notestein. With

death rates declining rapidly, the population grows at a diminishing rate.
This is the “Late Expanding” stage as shown by LE in Fig. (A) and BC in
Fig. (B). According to Blacker, 20% of the world population was in this
stage in 1930.

Fourth Stage:
In this stage, the fertility rate declines and tends to equal the death rate
so that the growth rate of population is stationary. As growth gains
momentum and people’s level of income increases, their standard of
living rises. The leading growth sectors expand and lead to an expansion
in output in other sectors through technical transformations.
Education expands and permeates the entire society. People discard old
customs, dogmas and beliefs, develop individualistic spirit and break with
the joint family. Men and women prefer to marry late. People readily
adopt family planning devices. They prefer to go in for a baby car rather
than a baby.

Moreover, increased specialisation following rising income levels and the

consequent social and economic mobility make it costly and inconvenient
to rear a large number of children. All this tends of reduce the birth at
further which along with an already low death rate brings a decline in the
growth rate of population.

The advanced countries of the world are passing through this “Lower
Stationary” (LS) stage of population development, as shown in Fig (A)
and CD in Fig. (B). Population growth is curtailed and there is zero
population growth.

Fifth Stage:
In this stage, death rates exceed birth rates and the population growth
declines. This is shown as D in Fig. (A) and the portion DP in Fig. (B). A
continuing decline in birth rates when it is not possible to lower death
rates further in the advanced countries leads to a “declining” stage of
population.

The existence of this stage in any developed country is a matter of

speculation, according to Blacker. However, France appears to approach
this stage.

Criticisms of the Theory of Demographic Transition:

Despite its usefulness as a theory describing demographic
transition in Western Countries, it has been criticised on the
following grounds:
1. Sequences of Stages not Uniform:
Critics point out that the sequences of the demographic stages have not
been uniform. For instance, in some East and South European countries,
and in Spain in particular, the fertility rates declined even when mortality
rates were high. But in America, the growth rate of population was higher
than in the second and third stage of demographic transition.

2. Birth Rate not declined initially in Urban Areas:

Nolestein’s assertion that the birth rate declined initially among urban
population in Europe has not been supported by empirical evidence.
Countries like Sweden and France with predominantly rural populations
experienced decline in birth rates to the same extent as countries like
Great Britain with predominantly urban populations.

3. Explanations of Birth Rate decline Vary;

The theory fails to give the fundamental explanations of decline in birth
rates in Western countries. In fact, the causes of decline in birth rate are
so diverse that they differ from country to country.

Thus the theory of demographic transition is a generalisation and not a

theory.

Not only this, this theory is equally applicable to the developing countries
of the world. Very backward countries in some of the African states are
still in the first stage whereas the other developing countries are either in
the second or in the third stage. India has entered the third stage where
the death rate is declining faster than the birth rate due to better medical
facilities and family welfare measures of the government.

But the birth rate is declining very slowly with the result that the country is
experiencing population explosion. It is on the basis of this theory that
economists have developed economic- demographic models so that
developing countries should enter the fourth stage.

One such model is the Coale-Hoover model for India which has also been
extended to other developing countries. Thus this theory has universal
applicability, despite the fact that it has been propounded on the basis of
the experiences of the European countries.

Population and economic development

Population and economic development are closely linked. A growing population can
drive economic development as it increases the size of the workforce and consumer
base, which can stimulate economic growth. Conversely, economic development can
impact population growth as it creates job opportunities, higher wages, and improved
living standards, which can attract more people to an area and contribute to population
growth.

However, the relationship between population and economic development is complex

and can be influenced by various factors such as government policies, natural resources,
education, technology, and cultural values. For example, a country with a large
population and limited natural resources may struggle to achieve economic
development, whereas a country with a smaller population but abundant natural
resources may have an advantage in economic development.
Moreover, rapid population growth can also create challenges for economic
development, such as increased demand for resources, strains on infrastructure, and
environmental degradation. Therefore, achieving sustainable economic development
requires balancing population growth with resource availability, environmental
concerns, and social development goals.

To further expand on the relationship between population and economic development,

it's important to understand that population growth and economic development can
either complement or hinder each other.

On the one hand, a growing population can provide a larger workforce, which can
increase productivity and stimulate economic growth. The larger market size can also
attract businesses to the area, which can create jobs and further fuel economic
development. Moreover, a larger population can lead to an increase in demand for
goods and services, which can stimulate innovation and further economic growth.

On the other hand, population growth can also create challenges for economic
development. For instance, if population growth outpaces economic development,
there may not be enough jobs to accommodate the growing population. This can lead
to high levels of unemployment, poverty, and inequality, which can stifle economic
growth. Moreover, rapid population growth can also put a strain on infrastructure, such
as transportation, housing, and water supply systems, which can negatively impact
economic development.

Additionally, the relationship between population and economic development can also
be influenced by the age structure of the population. For example, a population with a
large proportion of young people can create a demographic dividend, where the
working-age population is larger than the dependent population (children and elderly).
This can create an opportunity for economic development, as the working-age
population can provide a boost to the economy through increased productivity and
spending. However, if the population age structure is skewed towards an aging
population, it can create a burden on the economy, as the dependent population
becomes larger than the working-age population, which can lead to a strain on social
welfare programs.

In conclusion, the relationship between population and economic development is

complex and multifaceted. While population growth can provide opportunities for
economic development, it can also create challenges, such as strain on resources and
infrastructure. Therefore, achieving sustainable economic development requires a
balance between population growth, resource availability, and social development
goals.
Connection between incomes and mortality
There is a well-established connection between income and mortality, which is often
referred to as the income-mortality gradient. In general, individuals with higher incomes
tend to have lower mortality rates compared to those with lower incomes.

There are several reasons for this connection. Firstly, higher-income individuals tend to
have access to better healthcare, nutrition, and living conditions, which can lead to
better health outcomes and lower mortality rates. They are more likely to have health
insurance, which can make healthcare services more affordable and accessible.
Additionally, they may have access to healthier food options and be able to afford safer
and more comfortable living conditions, which can reduce the risk of illnesses and
injuries.

Secondly, higher-income individuals tend to have higher levels of education and

knowledge, which can lead to better health behaviors and outcomes. They are more
likely to have knowledge about healthy lifestyles, including diet, exercise, and disease
prevention. They may also be better informed about health risks and be more proactive
in seeking medical attention when needed.

On the other hand, individuals with lower incomes may face several challenges that can
negatively impact their health and increase mortality rates. These challenges can
include limited access to healthcare services, unhealthy living conditions, and higher
levels of stress and anxiety. Additionally, they may face barriers to education and
knowledge, which can limit their ability to make informed decisions about their health.

Overall, the income-mortality gradient highlights the importance of addressing income

inequality and promoting access to healthcare and education to improve health
outcomes and reduce mortality rates.

To further expand on the connection between income and mortality, it's important to note that the
income-mortality gradient can be observed across different age groups, genders, and races. For
example, studies have found that children from low-income families are more likely to experience poor
health outcomes, including higher rates of infant mortality, low birth weight, and developmental
delays. Similarly, adults with lower incomes are more likely to suffer from chronic diseases, such as
heart disease, diabetes, and cancer, which can lead to higher mortality rates.

Moreover, the income-mortality gradient is not limited to just physical health outcomes. Individuals
with lower incomes are also more likely to experience mental health issues, such as depression and
anxiety, which can also impact mortality rates. Studies have found that the risk of suicide is higher
among individuals with lower incomes, as they may face more social and economic challenges,
including unemployment, poverty, and financial stress.
In addition to these individual-level factors, there are also broader social determinants of health that
contribute to the income-mortality gradient. For example, individuals living in poverty may be more
likely to live in neighborhoods with higher levels of pollution, which can lead to respiratory illnesses
and other health problems. They may also have limited access to healthy food options and
opportunities for physical activity, which can contribute to obesity and other chronic health conditions.

In conclusion, the connection between income and mortality is a complex and multi-faceted issue.
While higher incomes are associated with better health outcomes and lower mortality rates, there are
many individual and social factors that contribute to this relationship. Addressing income inequality
and promoting access to healthcare, education, and healthy living conditions is crucial for improving
health outcomes and reducing mortality rates for all individuals, regardless of their income level.

Connection between income and fertility

There is a well-established connection between income and fertility, and this
relationship is often referred to as the income-fertility gradient. In general, individuals
with higher incomes tend to have lower fertility rates compared to those with lower
incomes.

One reason for this connection is that higher-income individuals may prioritize their
careers or other personal goals over having children. They may delay childbearing to
pursue education, establish their careers, or achieve financial stability. As a result, they
may have fewer children or decide not to have children at all.

Another reason for the income-fertility gradient is that higher-income individuals have
more access to family planning services, including contraception and fertility
treatments. They are more likely to have health insurance that covers family planning
services, and they may have more knowledge and resources to make informed
decisions about their reproductive health.

On the other hand, individuals with lower incomes may have limited access to family
planning services and may face financial barriers to accessing contraception or fertility
treatments. They may also have less knowledge about reproductive health and family
planning options.

Furthermore, individuals with lower incomes may also have cultural or social norms that
prioritize larger families. They may have fewer opportunities for education and career
advancement, and having children may be seen as a way to achieve social status or
security.

Overall, the income-fertility gradient highlights the importance of access to family

planning services and education about reproductive health for individuals across all
income levels. It also underscores the need to address social and cultural factors that
may influence fertility decisions.
To expand further on the income-fertility gradient, it's important to note that this relationship can also
vary across different countries and regions. In general, higher-income countries tend to have lower
fertility rates compared to lower-income countries. This is partly due to the greater availability of family
planning services and the cultural norms that prioritize smaller families in many higher-income
countries.

However, within countries, the income-fertility gradient can be more complex. For example, in some
countries, higher-income individuals may have fewer children compared to lower-income individuals,
but in other countries, the opposite may be true. In some cases, the relationship may be more
nuanced, with higher-income individuals having children later in life or having a greater desire for
smaller families.

It's also important to note that the income-fertility gradient can have important implications for
population growth and demographic change. In countries with high fertility rates, rapid population
growth can strain resources and limit economic development. On the other hand, in countries with low
fertility rates, there may be concerns about an aging population and a shrinking workforce.

In conclusion, the income-fertility gradient is a complex relationship that can vary across different
countries, regions, and socioeconomic groups. Access to family planning services and education about
reproductive health are important factors in shaping fertility decisions, and cultural and social norms
can also play a role. Understanding this relationship is important for addressing issues related to
population growth and demographic change, as well as for promoting individual reproductive health
and autonomy.

Fertility choices and human capital accumulation

Fertility choices can have important implications for human capital accumulation, both
at the individual and societal levels. Human capital refers to the skills, knowledge, and
abilities that individuals acquire through education, training, and experience, and it is a
key driver of economic growth and development.

At the individual level, fertility choices can impact human capital accumulation by
affecting educational and career opportunities. Individuals with fewer children or who
delay childbearing may have more opportunities to pursue education and career
advancement, which can lead to higher earnings and greater economic stability over
time. On the other hand, individuals with more children or who have children at a
younger age may face more challenges in pursuing education and career goals.

Fertility choices can also impact human capital accumulation at the societal level. High
fertility rates can strain resources and limit educational opportunities, particularly in
developing countries where access to education and healthcare may be limited.
Conversely, low fertility rates can lead to an aging population and a shrinking
workforce, which can have negative economic consequences if not properly managed.

Moreover, the timing and spacing of births can also impact human capital
accumulation. Studies have shown that spacing births at least two years apart can
improve maternal and child health outcomes, as well as increase the likelihood that
children will complete their education and achieve better outcomes later in life.

Overall, fertility choices can have significant implications for human capital
accumulation at both the individual and societal levels. Promoting access to family
planning services and education about reproductive health can help individuals make
informed decisions about their fertility choices, which can in turn contribute to greater
human capital accumulation and economic development over time.

Another important aspect to consider in the relationship between fertility choices and
human capital accumulation is the role of gender equality. In many countries, gender
inequalities can limit women's access to education and employment opportunities, as
well as restrict their reproductive choices. This can lead to a lower human capital
accumulation, as women are often key contributors to education and workforce
development.

However, improving gender equality can also have positive effects on fertility choices
and human capital accumulation. When women have greater access to education and
employment opportunities, they are more likely to delay childbearing, have fewer
children, and invest more in the education and well-being of their children. This, in turn,
can lead to greater human capital accumulation and economic development.

Furthermore, family-friendly policies, such as parental leave and flexible work

arrangements, can also play a role in supporting fertility choices and human capital
accumulation. These policies can help individuals balance work and family
responsibilities and make it easier for women to continue working and pursuing their
education goals while raising children.

Finally, it's important to note that the relationship between fertility choices and human
capital accumulation is complex and can be influenced by many factors, including social
and cultural norms, access to healthcare and education, economic opportunities, and
government policies. By promoting gender equality, providing access to family planning
services and education, and implementing family-friendly policies, societies can support
individuals in making informed fertility choices that contribute to greater human capital
accumulation and economic development.

Migration
Migration is the movement of people from one place to another for a variety of
reasons, such as economic opportunities, social and political factors, and environmental
or climate-related factors. Migration can be internal, within a country, or international,
across national borders.
 Migration can have both positive and negative effects on both the sending and
receiving countries. For example, migrants can bring new skills and knowledge to the
receiving country, contribute to the economy through their labor, and increase cultural
diversity. However, migration can also lead to social and economic challenges, such as
competition for jobs, strain on social services, and cultural conflicts.

 An emigrant is a person who is leaving one country to live in another.

 An immigrant is a person who is entering a country from another to
make a new home.

Internal migration refers to the movement of people from one region or place within a
country to another. This can include moving from a rural area to an urban area, or from
one city to another. Internal migration can be driven by a variety of factors, including
economic opportunities, access to education and healthcare, and social and cultural
factors.

External migration, on the other hand, refers to the movement of people across
international borders. This can include people seeking refuge from persecution or
conflict in their home country, people seeking economic opportunities in a new country,
or people joining family members who have already migrated. External migration can
also be driven by environmental factors such as climate change, or by political factors
such as changes in immigration policies.

Effects of migration
Migration can have a variety of effects, both positive and negative, on both the sending
and receiving countries, as well as on the migrants themselves. Here are some of the
key effects of migration:

Effects on the sending country:

 Brain drain: When skilled workers and professionals migrate to other countries, it can
lead to a loss of talent and skills in the sending country.
 Remittances: Migrants often send money back to their families in the sending country,
which can provide important financial support and contribute to economic
development.
 Reduced pressure on resources: If there is significant overpopulation or strain on
resources in the sending country, migration can help to alleviate this pressure.

Effects on the receiving country:

 Increased cultural diversity: Migration can bring new cultures, traditions, and
perspectives to the receiving country.
 Economic benefits: Migrants can contribute to the economy through their labor,
entrepreneurial activities, and consumption of goods and services.
 Labor market: Migration can address shortages in certain sectors of the labor market
and can also lead to competition for jobs among locals.

Effects on the migrants themselves:

 Personal and professional growth: Migration can provide new opportunities for
personal and professional growth, including access to better education and healthcare.
 Social and cultural challenges: Migrants may face social isolation and discrimination in
the new country due to language barriers, cultural differences, and lack of familiarity
with the local customs and norms.
 Health risks: Migrants may face health risks during migration, particularly if they are
forced to migrate in dangerous or unhealthy conditions.

Overall, the effects of migration depend on a variety of factors, including the reasons
for migration, the characteristics of the migrants and the sending and receiving
countries, and the policies in place to manage migration. Policymakers need to consider
these factors in order to maximize the positive effects of migration while minimizing the
negative effects.