MAKERERE UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT

SCIENCES.
SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS.
MASTER OF ARTS IN ECONOMICS.

NAME: TUGUME DIPHUS.

REGISTRATION NUMBER: 2023/HD06/23497U.
STUDENTS NUMBER: 2300723497.

SUMMARY
ASSIGNMENT: Population Growth and Economic
Development: Causes, Consequences, and
Controversies.
 Introduction
 Structure of world’s population.
 Demographic transition.
 Causes of high population growth rate.
 The Consequences of High Fertility.
 Conclusion.
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 Overtime population has been reduced by famine, diseases, malnutrition, plague

and wars that resulted into high death rates. Today with technology it has led to a decline

in mortality due to increased medicine, vaccines, public education and increased

sanitation thus leading to a spike in population growth rate.

Population growth is the increase in the number of individuals in a population

over time. It's essentially the difference between the number of births and deaths within a

population, along with the net effect of immigration and emigration.

Structure of world’s population.

According to geography 3/4 world’s people live in poor countries and 1/3 people live in

rich countries but location cannot be an issue because the Asian tigers developed yet they were

located in topics. According to fertility and mortality, fertility for developing countries is 1.5%

to 4% while for developed countries it’s 1.5% or less, for sub-Saharan Africa it’s 3.1% to 5.3%.

Life expectancy has increased from 35 to 40 in poor countries while 62 to 65 for rich countries

and lowered death rates by 50% in Asia, 30% in Africa and 30% in middle east and underage

mortality lowered from 12.1% to 7.4% in south Asia, 18.4% to 14.4% in sub Saharan Africa

Age structure and dependency Burden, population in developing countries is youthful

and the youth dependency ratio is 20% in North America 15% in Europe and 43% in sub-

Saharan African the more the children the greater the dependent children and the more difficult

to support it thus the youth dependence leads us to hidden momentum of population growth,

Hidden momentum of population growth is the continued population increase even after a

decline in birthrates due to many people entering reproductive age. There are two reasons for

this, one is the population cannot be reduced overnight (it takes some years to lower fertility rate

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to desired levels). Two the number of potential parents is higher, young children might outweigh

their parents but when their generation reaches adulthood.

The demographic transition is the process by which fertility rates eventually decline to

replacement levels, it explains that developed countries have passed through three or more stages

of modern population history. Stage 1 began before economic modernization population growth

had stable-slow growing population due to high birth rates equal to high death rates, stage 2

began when modernization began associated with better public health, good nutrition, high

incomes let to reduction in mortality that raised life expectancy from 40 to 60 years however the

death rates were not accompanied by a decline in fertility thus divergence between high birth

rates and falling death rates led to sharp increase in population growth. Stage 3 started with

increased forces and influences of modernization and development caused fall in fertility and fall

in birth rates, fall in birth rates converged with lower death rates and lastly currently birthrates

have reduced to negligible and rich countries are trying to look for ways to improve them.

Developing countries their demographic transition started with high birth rates when

compared to rich countries at their time because women tend to marry at an earlier age. Stage 2

starts with modernization and use of highly effective imported modern medical and public health

technologies caused death rates to decline sharply than in 19 th century in Europe with excess of

2.0% per-year. Stage 3 with modern death control methods combined with rapid and widely rise

in standards of living resulted into high fall in death rates and birth rates for CASE A like south

Korea and china thus led to fall in population growth however CASE B after initial rapid decline,

death rates failed to drop further due to persistent absolute poverty, AIDS epidemic and low

standard of living. High birth rates continue due to low standard of living like in Sub Saharan

Africa and Middle East and fertility rate is high.

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 Causes of high population growth rate in developing countries. High fertility due to

high birth rates 1.5% to 4% fertility in poor countries and 1.5% or less for rich countries.

According to Malthus he postulated a population trap where population grows geometrically

doubling every 30 to 40 years and food supplies expand geometrically due to diminishing returns

to fixed factor land thus the growth in food could not sustain rising population hence per capita

income would fall to stable population existing barely above subsistence level.

Culture and household decisions. According to the microeconomic household theory of

fertility, consumers tend to maximize satisfaction from consuming goods subject to income and

price constraints. Children are goods thus rational consumer chooses children relative to other

goods, the number of children is directly proportional to household income and price of other

goods and inversely proportional to price of children and tastes for other goods relative to

children. The high the household income and price of other goods the greater the demand for

children while the higher the net price of children and greater the strength of tastes for other

goods relative to children the fewer the children demanded

The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflicting Perspectives. The following

discussion summarizes some of the main arguments for and against the idea that the

consequences of rapid population growth lead to serious development problems;

It’s Not a Real Problem, We can identify three general lines of argument on the part of

people who assert that population growth is not a cause for concern and these are; the problem is

not population growth but other issues and these include; underdevelopment, with correct

strategies that lead to higher standard of living and income population will take care of itself thus

the only goal should be development, developing countries consumes more 80% of world’s

resource hence it should be them to cut down their excess consumption so as to reduce resource

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depletion, the problem is not the number of people but how they are distributed thus government

should strive to distribute them, women have inferior roles, low status and restricted to access to

birth controls thus population is a natural outcome of women’s lack of economic opportunity so

government should aim on women’s health, education and economic well-being to high role and

status in community lead to small families.

It’s a deliberately contrived false issue, the rich nations are over concerned with

population growth of poor nations to hold down their development and maintain their

international status quo favorable to rich nation’s self-interests. It’s a desirable phenomenon,

population growth is an essential ingredient to stimulate economic development like provide

market, cheap labor hence lower cost of production for example agricultural output of idle arable

land can only be increased if only more people are available to cultivate it. Other arguments that

population is desirable include to protect country boarders, to protect culture and norms and to

get more youthful army.

It’s a real problem, Positions supporting the need to curtail population growth because

of the negative economic, social, and environmental consequences are typically based on one of

the following three arguments. Firstly the extremist argument (population and global crisis)

uncontrolled population growth is a major problem that cause poverty, low standard of living,

malnutrition ill health environmental degradation and social unrest hence requires severe and

coercive measures such as compulsory sterilization to control family size in some of the most

populated developing countries, such as India and Bangladesh. Second the Theoretical Argument

(Population-Poverty Cycles and the Need for Family-Planning Programs) according to poverty

cycle theory argues that too rapid population growth yields negative economic consequences

thus population growth should be a real concern and it retards prospects for better life by

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reducing saving rates, increase government expenditure lower capital labor ratio or output labor

ratio in Solow’s model and there is increased dependence burden at household and national

levels. Population growth intensifies and exacerbates the economic, social, and psychological

problems associated with the condition of underdevelopment.

Other empirical arguments that is the seven negative consequences of population

growth on economic development. First its impact on economic growth because it lowers per

capita income growth, worsens poverty and inequality, restrict opportunities of parents to

educate all children, high fertility harms health mothers and children, feeding word becomes

more difficult due to rise in population, it increases encroachment on environment like forests

due to demand for land and firewood, and lastly it increases worsens problems associated with

legal and illegal international migration.

In conclusion population is not a problem but other issues, population is also not just

simply numbers but distribution is a problem and it’s a problem due to momentum of population

growth. There are 3 policy goals and objectives, to address other issues of underdevelopment, to

reduce fertility enhancing education and technology is key to reducing population especially

family planning and developed countries should reduce their consumption and subsidies poor

countries. Some policy approaches of what developing countries can do; include persuade people

to reduce number of children, enhance family planning programs, incentives for reducing

population, force people have small families and raise women’s status however developed

countries can reduce their excessive consumption behavior, remove restrictions to immigration

of poor, provide genuine support, enhance research, and finance family planning programs of the

poor.