Demographic Transition Model

 Most useful and influential model of natural population change

 Thompson has acknowledged the problems which were caused by unsustainable
population growth by stating the obvious = Fewer people demanding resources
means more resources available for individuals and countries to develop
economically
 He classified all countries, according to population and wealth, into one of three
groups:
- Group C countries – the world’s poorest with high birth, death and infant mortality
rates
- Group B countries – rapidly growing with falling death rates, but creating wealth
through industrialisation
- Group A countries – the world’s wealthiest with low birth and death rates

 The DTM then plots a country’s progression from Group C to B and finally to Group A
as it develops economically through industrialisation

1. Stage 1: High birth and death rates as population is checked periodically by

disease, war and famines. There is no birth control, life expectancy is short and
population growth slow and intermittent. Only remote ethnic groups within the
most accessible regions of Amazonia and south-east Asia are in this stage today
2. Stage 2: Birth rates stay high and may increase marginally, but death rate
declines progressively. The high birth rate reflects lack of birth control, and
factors such as women marrying earlier and children having an “economic value”
because they can work. The falling death rate is related to economic grow and
improvements in personal hygiene, sanitation, medical care and diet. As the gap
between birth rate and death rate widens there is a population explosion. The
poorest LICs today, like Mali, are at that stage
3. Stage 3: Birth rate starts to fall with the availability of birth control and women
marrying later. This is possible because economic development and education
starts to weaken cultural traditions, more women are emancipated, smaller
families are desired and child labour is often replaced by education. The lower
death rate reflects the control of major diseases and improved standards of
health and sanitation. Population growth continues but at a progressively slower
rate. Industrialisation and urbanising countries today, such as India, are in this
stage
Assess the extent to which population change in one country you have studied fits the demographic
transition model

PLAN:

Introduction

 The extent to which China fits the demographic transition model is significant
 This is due to the rapid increase in population China has experienced over the past years
 China is stage 4 because of a low DR and BR and a stable natural increase
 Social = Unemployment is a major problem in China with about 10% of people without work and
a disproportionate amount of state education is spend on universities rather than the country’s
primary and secondary schools
 Economic = Debt, trade war, the shift from a Labour-surplus to a labour-scarce society
 Environmental = Indoor and outdoor pollution, water shortages and desertification
 Political = One child policy, low agricultural production due to political mismanagement

Paragraph 1: China FITS the DTM

 The reason why China fits the DTM is because politically, is that they do not have a high
population growth due to the one child policy
 China is a country consisting of 2 billion people with birth rates slowing down due to the political
initiatives pursued by the government
 The current birth rate for China is 11.159 births per 1000 people, which is a 2.25% decline from
2020
 In 2020, the Chinese birth rate fell to the lowest in seven decades
 The death rate of China is 7.1 per 1000
 It is not only the local government policy which maintains low birth-rates, but also the change in
people’s mentality
  Most Chinese women do not want to sacrifice their work for children, thus younger people take
the expense of raising a child into account
 Therefore, it is likely that the government will soon consider a “three child policy” to force
couples into having more babies so that a low-cost workforce can be maintained

Paragraph 2= Does not fit the DTM

 Because the DTM is based on European and Middle-eastern countries for over 200 years, thus,
there have been more changes in much shorter space of time, such as with Iran, where there has
been a remarkable fall in population growth rate
 The one child policy has been relaxed to a two-child policy to avoid the problems it has faced
with an ageing population
 It is usually the rural villages which have established the two-child policy; therefore, this could
mean that in future China’s population may be dominated by people who are uneducated
 Also, China might miss out on a stage due to the one-child policy being stopped
 Because China is a post-transitional society, live expectancy has reached new heights and fertility
has declined to below-replacement level
 The one-child policy has only been stopped in a few districts; thus, some regions of China might
still have a significant impact on the ageing population

Conclusion

To conclude, China does not fit the DTM due to the fact that the one-child policy is not taken into
account, which is basically the main factor for China facing a shrinking population due to an ageing
population. Furthermore, this is the reason why China will probably miss out on a stage and the fact that
countries like Iran or Thailand have had a more significant fall in population growth rate in a shorter
amount of time.