Demographic Transition Theory, Demographic Dividend and Window of Opportunity

Demographic Dividend refers to a demographically linked economic boost caused by a rise in the

working age population {15-59 years or in some cases 15-64 years} and consequent drop in
the dependency ratio. A country is expected to reap the demographic dividend when share of its
working population is larger than share of its non-working population. India is currently going
through a phase of demographic dividend.
Demographic Dividend across the World
As per UN Population research, during last four decades, the nations in Asia and Latin America have
been the main beneficiaries of demographic dividend. On the other hand, the countries in Europe,
United States and Japan have got aging population mainly due to low birth rates and low mortality
rates {read about Demographic Transition Theory}. Further, China’s one child policy reversed the
demographic dividend it reaped since 1960s.
Essential Policy Environment
Demographic dividend does not occur automatically and can be reaped only when there is a boost
in the economic activity due to large number of people in work force. Thus, in order to reap the
dividend, the countries must be able to provide access to quality education, adequate nutrition
and health including access to sexual and reproductive health to its young people.

Given the right kind of policy environment, demographic dividend can help to produce sustained
period of economic growth, as it has done in several East Asian Economies in later half of 20th
century. The key policy areas which need to be focused include public health, family planning,
education and economic policies that promote labour market flexibility.

Further, the demographic dividend is not permanent but just by virtue of a particular phase when
the nation has both increasing number of young people and also declining fertility. This window of
opportunity needs to be exploited by the policy makers to make demographic dividend a reality.
They need to consider how to optimally seize the window.
Survey Notes: Demographic Dividend for India
The below figure compares the evolution of Working Age (WA) and Non-Working Age population
ration between 1970 and 2050 for India, Brazil, Korea and China.

It shows three distinct features of India’s demographic profile:

 First, India’s demographic cycle is about 10-30 years behind that of the other countries, indicating
that the next few decades present an opportunity for India to catch up to their per capita income
levels.
 Second, India’s WA to NWA ratio is likely to peak at 1.7, a much lower level than Brazil and China,
both of which sustained a ratio greater than 1.7 for at least 25 years.
 Finally, India will remain close to its peak for a much longer period than other countries.

The reason of this pattern can be explained on the basis of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for comparable
countries as shown below:

The above figure shows that all these countries started the post-World War II era with roughly the
same very high TFR rates. In China and Korea, TFR then declined rapidly to below-replacement levels
(less than 2 children per female), causing the share of working age population to rise until the early
2000s, then to fall as ageing began to set in. However, the decline in TFR in India has been much
more gradual.

The consequence of this is that unlike East Asian successes, India should not expect to see growth
surges or growth decelerations of the magnitudes experienced by the East Asian countries, at least
not on account of the demographic dividend. This does not rule out accelerations for other reasons,
elated to reforms and strength of domestic institutions. At the same time, India might be able to
sustain high levels of growth (on account of the demographic dividend) for a longer time.

A final distinctive feature in India is the large heterogeneity among the states in their demographic
profile and evolution. There is a clear divide between peninsular India (West Bengal, Kerala,
Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh) and the hinterland states (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan,
Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar). The peninsular states exhibit a pattern that is closer to China and Korea,
with sharp rises and declines in the working age population. The difference, of course, is that the
working age ratio of most of the peninsular states will peak at levels lower than seen in East Asia
(West Bengal comes closest to Korea’s peak because of its very low TFR). In contrast, the hinterland
states will remain relatively young and dynamic, characterized by a rising working age population for
some time, plateauing out towards the middle of the century.
This divide in the WA/NWA ratio of the peninsular and the hinterland states can be traced to the
difference in their levels of TFR. Demographically speaking, therefore, there are two Indias, with
different policy concerns: a soon-to-begin ageing India where the elderly and their needs will require
greater attention; and a young India where providing education, skills, and employment
 opportunities must be the focus. Of course, heterogeneity within India offers the advantage of
addressing some of these concerns via greater labour mobility, which would in effect reduce this
demographic imbalance.
Consequences
This demographic pattern suggests that peak of the demographic dividend is approaching fast for
India. This peak will be reached in the early 2020s for India as a whole; peninsular India will peak
around 2020 while hinterland India will peak later (around 2040). This presents an overall good
window of opportunity for states in the hinterland in comparison to peninsular India.

Demographic Transition Theory

The demographic transition theory studies the relationship between economic development and
population growth. It discusses about changes in birth rate and death rate and consequently growth
rate of population in assonance with the process of growth and development. It is also used to
describe and predict the future population of any area. The theory tells us that population of any
region changes from high births and high deaths to low births and low deaths as society progresses
from rural agrarian and illiterate to urban industrial and literate society. These changes occur in
stages which are collectively known as the demographic cycle. There are four stages of demographic
transition related to the state of economic development.

 First Stage or Stage of High Birth Rate and High Death Rate
 Second Stage or Stage of High Birth Rate and Low Death Rate or Stage of Population Explosion
 Third Stage or Stage of Declining Birth Rate and Low Death Rate
 Fourth Stage or Stage of Low Birth Rate and Low Death Rate

First Stage or Stage of High Birth Rate and High Death Rate
In first stage, the country is at low level of economic development. Agriculture is the main
occupation of the people. Standard of living of the people is low. Death rate is high because of lack
of medical facilities, epidemics, famines and illiteracy. Birth rate is high because of social and
economic reasons.

The key notable features of this stage are as follows:

 Population Pyramid in the first stage is Expanding at the bottom
 Stable population
 High birth rate, High infant mortality and High death rate = low life expectancy
 Many young people, very few older people
 High fertility rate (8+)

The first stage has high fertility and high mortality because people reproduce more to compensate
for the deaths due to epidemics and variable food supply. The population growth is slow and most of
the people are engaged in agriculture where large families are an asset. Life expectancy is low,
people are mostly illiterate and have low levels of technology. Two hundred years ago all the
countries of the world were in this stage.
Second Stage or Stage of High Birth Rate and Low Death Rate or Stage of Population Explosion
In this stage, birth-rate is high but death rate is low. It results in high growth rate of population. In
this stage, income begins to rise and economic activities expand. On account of better health
facilities and nourishing diet, death rate falls rapidly. Birth rate remains high due to social
 backwardness and limited access to contraceptives. The key notable features of this stage are as
follows:
 Population Pyramid in this stage is Rapidly Expanding
 Very rapid increase in population (population explosion)
 Rapid decline in death rate but death rate remains below the birth rate
 Fertility rate remains high
 High birth rate
 High rate of natural increase
 Decline in infant mortality
 Many young people

Fertility remains high in the beginning of second stage but it declines with time. This is accompanied
by reduced mortality rate. Improvements in sanitation and health conditions lead to decline in
mortality. Because of this gap the net addition to population is high.
Third Stage or Stage of Declining Birth Rate and Low Death Rate
In the third stage, a declining birth rate and low death rate lead to low population growth. Along
with economic development of the country, structural changes in the economy begin to take place.
Large population begins to reside in urban areas. People start considering large families as liability.
Consequently, birth rate begins to fall. Death rate continues to be low. Growth rate of population
declines.
India is passing through this stage of demographic transition. The key notable features of this stage
are as follows:

 The Population Pyramid in third stage is Stationary

 Population growth slows down
 Birth rate declining rapidly
 Decline in fertility rate
 Death rate declining slowly
 Birth rate approaching death rate
 High life expectancy
 Increasing number of older people
Fourth Stage or Stage of Low Birth Rate and Low Death Rate
In the fourth stage, low birth rate and low death rate lead to Population stabilisation. In this stage,
because of rapid economic development, standard of living of the people becomes very high. Quality
of life is given a priority to the size of the family. The key notable features of this stage are as
follows:
 Population Pyramid is Contracting
 Stable or slow population increase
 Low birth rate
 Low death rate
 High life expectancy
 Birth rate is approximately the same as the death rate
 Fertility rate is close to or below 2.1
 Many older people

In the last stage, both fertility and mortality decline considerably. The population is either stable or
grows slowly. The population becomes urbanised, literate and has high technical knowhow and
deliberately controls the family size. This shows that human beings are extremely flexible and are
able to adjust their fertility. In the present day, different countries are at different stages of
demographic transition.