GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY

Demography is the scientific study of human population in which includes study of changes in population size,
composition and its distribution. “Demo” means “the people or population” and “graphy” means
“measurement or picture”.

Source of Demography

1. Population Censuses

2. National Sample

3. Surveys registration

THINGS THAT AFFECT DEMOGRAPHY

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY

The demographic transition theory is a generalized description of the changing pattern of mortality, fertility
and growth rates as societies move from one demographic regime to another.

The term was first coined by the American demographer Frank W. Notestein in the mid-twentieth century, but
it has since been elaborated and expanded upon by many others.

Demographic transition (DT) refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death
rates as a country or region develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. The theory
was proposed in 1929 the American demographer Warren Thompson, who observed changes, or transitions, in
birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the previous 200 years.
Most developed countries have completed the demographic transition and have low birth rates; most
developing countries are in the process of this transition. The major (relative) exceptions are some poor
countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and some Middle Eastern countries, which are poor or affected by
government policy or civil strife, notably, Pakistan, Palestinian territories, Yemen, and Afghanistan.

THERE ARE FOUR STAGES TO THE CLASSICAL DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL:

STAGE 1: PRE-INDUSTRIAL

Stage 1 is characterized by a low population growth rate due to a high birth rate (number of annual births per
one thousand people) and a high death rate (number of annual deaths per one thousand people). In this first
stage, total population is in flux as a result of these variables’ dynamic patterns, neither being consistent from
year to year.

STAGE 2: TRANSITIONAL

Stage 2 is characterized by a rapid decrease in a country’s death rate while the birth rate remains high. As
such, the total population of a country in Stage 2 will rise because births outnumber deaths, not because the
birth rate is rising. The decrease in death rate is commonly attributed to significant improvements in overall
health, specifically access to pediatric care, which affects the life expectancy of the most at-risk demographic
group — children. But along with basic healthcare, an expanded education system, gender equality, and
technological advances in the areas of food production and sanitation also work to decrease the death rate.

STAGE 3: INDUSTRIAL

In Stage 3 is characterized by death rates are low and birth rates decrease, usually as a result of improved
economic conditions, an increase in women’s status and education, and access to contraception. The decline in
birth rate varies from country to country, as does the time frame in which it is experienced. Some countries go
through rapid transitions where the birth rate plummets by more than 40%, while others maintain a much more
gradual decline. The rate of decline is dependent upon the economic and social factors at play – the quicker
gains are made in areas such as education and gender equality, the faster birth rates decline. Lower birth rates
combined with low death rates slow the pace of total population growth of countries within Stage 3. Though
slow, total population growth will continue until birth rates are lowered to or below replacement level.
STAGE 4: POST-TRANSITION

In Stage 4 -birth rates and death rates are both low, stabilizing total population growth. The decline in both
birth and death rates of most Stage 4 countries have been attributed to strong economies, highly educated
citizens, ample healthcare systems, the migration of people from rural communities to cities, and expanded
employment opportunities for women. As these factors play out the total fertility rate decreases until it reaches
replacement level, at which point the country enters Stage 5. It is understood that countries in Stage 4 of the
DTM have experienced significant economic and social advances allowing for reduced family size in relation
to decades prior. Birth rate and death rate have slower phase.

A possible Stage 5 would include countries in which fertility rates have fallen significantly below replacement
level and the elderly population is greater than the youthful population.