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The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Sustaining Growth With Stability
in India
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Macroeconomic Overview
An interesting feature of the record
of economic growth in India is that it has
experienced a sustained slow acceleration
in growth since independence. Growth
has been accelerating gradually since the
1950s, except for an interregnum between
1965 and 19801 (Table 1). Thus, the current
observed acceleration in growth has to be
seen in the context of this long record of
consistent growth, which has been
accompanied by a relatively continuous
increase in savings and investment rates
over the years. What is remarkable in
recent years is the very substantial steep
increase that has taken place in this decade
in the rates of savings and investment.
Comprehensive economic reforms
have been undertaken on a continuous
* Updated version of the paper presented by Dr. Rakesh Mohan, basis since the crisis year of 1991-92,
Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India at the Sixth Asian
Economic Policy Review Conference on April 19, 2008 at Tokyo. which have presumably contributed to the
The assistance of R.K. Pattnaik, M.D. Patra, B.M. Misra, Muneesh
Kapur and Indranil Bhattacharyya in preparation of paper is acceleration in growth that is now being
gratefully acknowledged. The paper has benefited immensely from experienced. There was, however, some
comments of the discussants, Mr. Takatoshi Ito and Mr.
Chalongphob Sussangkarn, at the Conference as well those of other
1
participants at the Conference. An edited version of this paper For a detailed discussion on the growth process of Indian
will appear in the Asian Economic Policy Review, Vol 3, 2008. Economy (1950-2008), refer to Mohan (2008b)
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2081
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
slowdown of the growth process in the savings and investment rates is that Indian
latter half of the 1990s, which coincided economic growth has been financed
with the onset of the East Asian financial predominantly by domestic savings. The
crisis. Since 2003-04, there has been a recourse to foreign savings has been
distinct strengthening of the growth modest. However, the two decades of
momentum with real GDP growth 1960s and 1980s, when the current
averaging close to 9 per cent per annum account deficit had reached or exceeded
over the 5 year period ending 2007-08. around 2 per cent of GDP, were followed
by significant balance of payment
The sustained acceleration in real
difficulties and economic crises.
GDP growth of the Indian economy has
been associated with a secular up trend in A significant feature of the Indian
domestic savings and investment over the growth record has been that inflation has
decades. Gross domestic saving has moved been relatively moderate throughout.
up from an average of 9.6 percent of GDP Average inflation, measured by the
during the 1950s to almost 35 per cent of wholesale price index, was low at 1.2 per
GDP in 2006-07. Similarly, the domestic cent during the 1950s, but then increased
investment rate has increased to 6.4 per cent during the 1960s, 9.0 per
continuously from 10.8 per cent in 1950s cent in the 1970s, 8.0 per cent in the 1980s,
to close to 36 per cent by 2006-07. The and close to 10.0 per cent during the first
remarkable feature of these trends in half of the 1990s. Subsequently, in this
RBI
2082 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2083
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
2084 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
through increasing public investment and During the 1980s, Indian public
overall economic planning. Taxation was finances were in a state of disarray with
used as an instrument for reducing private the fiscal pattern destabilising the
consumption and investment and for relationship between the economy and
transferring resources to the Government the budget. This resulted in persistently
to enable it to undertake large-scale public large deficits which were seemingly
investment in an effort to spur economic intractable. Considerable fiscal
growth. Furthermore, taxation policy was deterioration took place during the 1980s
geared towards achieving the economic and eventually became unsustainable,
objectives of promoting employment though the growth rate did rise
through grant of tax incentives to new significantly with enhancement in public
investment; reducing inequality through investment in infrastructure. During this
progressive taxes on income and wealth; phase, expenditure of the Government
reducing pressure on balance of payments was seen as an instrument having a
through increase of import duties; and bearing upon aggregate demand, resource
stabilising prices through tax rebate in
allocation and income distribution. The
excise duties on consumption goods.
Government sought to reduce its deficit
Fiscal policy during the 1970s through tax increases. Customs duties
consciously focused on achieving greater were hiked to augment revenue and to
equity and social justice and both taxation protect domestic industry. There was a
and expenditure policies were employed structural change in the government
towards this end. Accordingly, income tax budgets during the 1980s. The emergence
rates were raised to very high levels, with of revenue deficit in 1979-80 in the
the maximum marginal rate of income tax Centre’s Budget continued to enlarge
moving up to 97 per cent and, together during the 1980s, raising concerns over the
with the incidence of wealth tax, it even rising public debt and interest payments
crossed 100 per cent. Over the years, in and the consequent constraint on the
addition to the commitment towards a availability of resources for meeting
large volume of developmental developmental needs. The 1980s
expenditure, the Government’s
witnessed a steady increase in market
expenditure widened to include rising
borrowings along with an increase in
subsidies. Large interest payments on
Reserve Bank’s support to such borrowing,
growing debt and downward rigidity in
thus compromising monetary policy.
prices further contributed to increased
current expenditure. Current revenues, on Fiscal dominance in the system
the other hand, were less buoyant leading meant that, alongside primary financing
to the emergence of sizeable revenue by the Reserve Bank in the form of higher
deficits in the Central government budget monetised deficits, the banking system
from 1979-80 onwards, complicating the was also subjected to statutory
task of monetary policy. preemptions through a phased increase in
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2085
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR): at its Besides the regular instruments of
peak, 38.5 per cent of banks’ net demand monetary policy such as CRR and Bank
and time liabilities had to be invested Rate, the Reserve Bank also took recourse
compulsorily in government and other to selective credit control measures in
approved securities. The monetary policy order to restrict credit flow to sensitive
imperative was that, in order to retain commodities during the 1970s since
monetary control, the Reserve Bank had inflation was partly thought to be
to progressively increase the cash reserve structural. During the 1980s, however,
requirements (CRR) on banks, preempting inflation was largely demand-pull as rising
further the use of banking resources. fiscal deficits, which were financed
Consequently, although monetary through greater monetisation, boosted
expansion was low by the standards of aggregate demand. Consequently, the
several Latin American countries, it monetary impact of greater monetisation
remained high during the 1970s and 1980s was sought to be neutralised by raising
with its consequent impact on inflation, CRR while unbridled credit expansion in
which was also fuelled by the global oil the commercial sector was checked
shocks in the 1970s (Table 2). through the imposition of higher SLR. But
RBI
2086 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2087
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
of its membership to G-20 group of in recent years reaching 10.4 per cent
countries. The Central Government, during 2004-07 and 12.5 per cent in 2007-
through the enactment of the Fiscal 08. This has been possible due to a steady
Responsibility and Budget Management rise in the share of direct taxes, particularly
(FRBM) Legislation in August 2003, set for in respect of corporate income tax. There
itself a rule-based fiscal consolidation has been a concomitant decline in the
framework. Expenditure Reform share of indirect taxes in total revenue
Commissions set up by the Government accounted for mostly by union excise
also suggested a host of measures to curb duties, notwithstanding the gradual
built-in-growth in expenditure and to increase in the share of service tax
bring about structural changes in the (Table 4).
composition of expenditure. Some of
Systematic and comprehensive
these measures have been implemented
efforts to reform the tax system in India
by the Government (Acharya, 2005;
started only after market based economic
Mohan, 2000).
reforms were initiated in 1991. Direct tax
Fiscal Reforms - Central Government reforms included rationalisation of tax
rates, minimisation of exemptions and
Revenue Pattern and Tax Reforms concessions, revamping of tax
The revenue pattern of the Central administration and computerisation. Tax
Government shows that the gross tax rates in respect of personal income tax
revenue-GDP ratio, which had fallen to 8.8 were simplified considerably to just three
per cent during 2000-04 from 10.3 per cent slabs of 20, 30 and 40 per cent in 1992-93.
during 1995-2000, has been on an uptrend The financial assets were excluded from
RBI
2088 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
wealth tax and the marginal rate was The indirect tax structure has also
reduced to one per cent. Further reduction undergone marked changes during the last
was introduced in 1997-98, when the three decade or so. Both domestic excise duties
slabs were brought down to 10, 20 and 30 that were levied on manufactured goods
per cent. and customs duties on imports had
traditionally been characterised by the
The corporate income tax has also
existence of high levels and a multiplicity
undergone significant changes. The
of rates. Both have undergone
distinction between closely held and
considerable simplification and
widely held companies was done away
rationalisation. Besides reduction in the
with and tax rates were unified at 40 per
number of rates, the tax has been
cent in 1993-94. The corporate tax rate was
progressively reduced. In 1999-2000,
brought down to 35 per cent in 1997-98
almost 11 tax rates were merged into
and the levy of tax on dividends in the
three, with only a handful of ‘luxury’
hands of shareholders was eliminated.
items being subject to higher rates. These
However, a new dividend distribution tax
were further merged into a single rate in
was introduced and levied on firms. The
2000-01 to be called a Central VAT
corporate income tax rate was further
(CenVAT), along with three special
reduced to 30 per cent in 2005-06. The
additional excises (8, 16 and 24 per cent)
dividend distribution tax rate has varied
for a few commodities. The CenVAT rate
been 10 per cent and 20 per cent since its
of 16 per cent has now been reduced to
introduction, and is currently at 15 per
14 per cent.
cent. With a view to bringing the ‘zero-tax’
companies, which took full advantage of Custom duties have undergone far
tax preferences and incentives, into tax reaching reforms. By 1990-91, the tariff
net, a minimum alternative tax (MAT) was structure was highly complex varying from
introduced in 1997-98. Under the MAT, in 0 to 400 per cent. Further, quantitative
case the total income of the company, as restrictions covered 90 per cent of total
computed under the Income Tax Act after imports. The reform of custom duties
availing of all eligible deductions, is less started in 1991-92 when all duties above
than 30 per cent of the book profit, the 150 per cent were reduced to this level to
total income of such a company shall be be called the ‘peak’ rate, which was
deemed to be 30 per cent of the book profit brought down in the next four years to 50
and shall be charged to tax accordingly. per cent by 1995-96 and further to 40 per
Certain other direct taxes have been cent in 1997-98, 30 per cent in 2002-03,
introduced in recent years, such as the 25 per cent in 2003-04, 15 per cent in 2005-
levy of fringe benefit tax on companies, 06 and 10 per cent in 2007-08 for non-
which, in principle, taxes those fringe agricultural goods. Quantitative
benefits that cannot be taxed in the hands restrictions on imports have virtually been
of the employees. done away with. The number of major
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2089
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
duty rates was reduced from 22 in 1990- level tax reforms. Thus, the introduction
91 to 4 in 2003-04. There are some items of unified tax reforms at the state level
outside these four rates, but 90 per cent required a great degree of cooperation
of the custom duties are collected from between states, on the one hand, and
items under the four rates. collectively, with the central Ministry of
Finance on the other. A major innovation
Whereas manufactured goods have
that was introduced in 1999-2000 was the
been subject to excise duty, services had
formation of an “Empowered Committee”
not been subject to a corresponding
of State Finance Ministers under the aegis
domestic indirect tax. With the increasing
of the Central Finance Ministry. The work
importance of the service sector in the
of this Committee resulted in ver y
economy, the service tax was introduced
significant and coordinated tax reform at
in 1994-95, initially with a levy of taxes
the State level. The main tax resource at
on three services of 5 per cent. The tax
the state level is the sales tax: each state
rate was revised to 10 per cent in 2004-05
had a multitude of tax rates, and there was
and further to 12 per cent in 2006-07. The
no uniformity across states. Beginning
aim is to eventually unify the tax rates on
with simplification and rationalisation of
goods and services in the form of a full
sales tax rates since the beginning of this
scale Value Added Tax (VAT). The list of
decade, a uniform Value Added Tax (VAT)
services subject to tax has been gradually
has now been adopted by all the States in
expanded in succeeding years to include
place of the existing sales tax. The Central
100 services at present.
Government has played the role of a
Fiscal Reforms: State Governments facilitator for successful implementation
At the state level, while individual of VAT. For example, in order to induce
State Governments appointed Committees states to undertake this reform, and to
from time to time to reform their tax reduce their fears about a possible
structure, there was no systematic attempt reduction in revenue, a compensation
to streamline the reform process even formula was put in place for providing
after 1991 when market oriented reforms compensation to the States on a graded
were introduced. The pace of tax reforms basis during 2005-06, 2006-07 and 2007-
in the States accelerated in the latter half 08 for any loss on account of introduction
of the 1990s when there was increasing of VAT. Technical and financial support has
pressure on their budgets and to meet also been extended to the States for VAT
targets set under the central government computerization, publicity, awareness and
sponsored medium term fiscal reform other related aspects. The initial
facility. Since the division of tax experience with implementation of VAT
responsibilities between the Indian has been encouraging with VAT
central government and the states is implementing States/Union Territories
mandated by the constitution, the central (UTs) having exhibited a rise in collection
government has no jurisdiction over state in VAT during 2005-06 (over sales tax of
RBI
2090 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2091
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
they are now lower than they were in the Broad View on the Outcome of
early 1990s, though there are now Fiscal Reforms
renewed pressures for higher subsidies
Deficit Indicators
because of the recent increases in the
prices of each of these items. Overall, the The progress in fiscal correction was
correction in total central government mixed during the 1990s, both at the
expenditure has essentially come from Central and State levels (Chart 1). While
lower interest costs and reductions in there was some reduction in fiscal deficit
capital expenditure. in the first half of the 1990s, progress was
10.0
8.0
Per cent
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1980-81
1990-91
2000-01
2007-08 RE
1981-82
1982-83
1991-92
1992-93
2001-02
2002-03
1984-85
1994-95
2004-05
1989-90
1999-00
1983-84
1985-86
1988-89
1993-94
1995-96
1998-99
2003-04
2005-06
1987-88
1997-98
1986-87
1996-97
2006-07
RBI
2092 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
reversed in the late 1990s mainly due to domestic sources up to over 90 per cent
the impact of implementation of the Fifth of GFD. Within domestic sources, market
Pay Commission’s awards. The combined borrowings have emerged as the most
fiscal deficit of Centre and the States important instrument for the Central
reached its peak at 9.9 per cent of GDP in Government accounting for about three-
2001-02. However, fiscal correction has fourth of financing with the rest
been continuous from 2004-05 with both contributed by others, such as small
the Centre and most of the States savings, provident funds and reserve
operating under a rule based fiscal funds deposits and advances. This is in
framework. The combined fiscal deficit contrast to the scenario before 1997-98,
reached 5.5 per cent in 2007-08. when the fiscal deficit was also financed
Incidentally, the fiscal correction process through monetisation. This development
has been faster for the States compared has contributed to the overall market
with that of the Centre. Their consolidated determination of interest rates in the
revenue balance is estimated to be in economy, and hence to the relevance and
surplus during 2007-08 (Table 6). effectiveness of monetary policy.
Apart from the quantitative Outstanding Liabilities
improvement, a salient feature of the fiscal The high level of fiscal deficits both
consolidation underway has been some at the Centre and the States led to debt
qualitative progress, as reflected in the accumulation over the period resulting in
reduction in the proportion of revenue a rise in the debt to GDP ratio. The
deficit to gross fiscal deficit. combined debt-GDP ratio of Centre and
The fiscal deficit of both the Centre States was about 81.0 per cent during 2004-
and the States is basically financed by 06. Following the impact of fiscal
Table 6: Deficit Indicators of Centre, States and Combined finances
(Per cent of GDP)
Item 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-04 2004-07 2007-08
(Avg.) (Avg.) (Avg.) (Avg.) (Avg.) (Avg.) RE
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
RD 1.0 2.4 3.0 3.1 4.1 2.3 1.4
Centre GFD 5.9 7.7 6.3 5.5 5.5 3.9 3.1
PD 3.8 4.5 2.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 -0.6
MD 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.6 -1.0 -0.4 -
RD -0.4 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.4 0.5 -0.3
States* GFD 2.8 3.0 2.8 3.4 4.3 2.9 2.3
PD 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.1
RD 4.8 5.2 2.9 2.5 6.5 2.9 1.3
Combined GFD 7.2 8.9 7.8 7.7 9.4 6.8 5.5
PD 0.6 2.7 3.7 4.7 3.1 1.1 0.1
* : State Governments’ data for the year 2006-07 and 2007-08 relate to revised estimates and budget estimates, respectively.
RD : Revenue Deficit GFD : Gross Fiscal Deficit PD : Primary Deficit
MD : Monetised Deficit Avg. : Average RE : Revised Estimates
Source : Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, 2006-07, RBI.
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2093
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
Responsibility legislations at both the growth and combined GFD-GDP ratio. The
Centre and the States, the combined debt- high level of fiscal deficit between 1997-
GDP ratio has come done in recent years 98 and 2002-03 was associated with
to 73.8 per cent in 2007-08 (Table 7). relatively low GDP growth. The reduction
Contingent liabilities in the form of in fiscal deficit since 2003-04 has been
outstanding guarantees by the associated with a phase of high GDP
Government have also witnessed some growth. Thus, fiscal correction and
decline in the recent years: the combined consolidation, which is a major ingredient
outstanding guarantees of the centre and of macroeconomic stability, provide a
the States declined from 12.2 per cent of conducive environment for propelling
GDP at end-March 2001 to 8.1 per cent by growth of the economy. Low fiscal deficits
end-March 2007. It may be added that, also enable more effective monetary
under the FRBM Act, the annual increase policy.
in the stock of contingent liabilities of the
Central Government is limited to a ceiling
Tax-GDP Ratio
of 0.5 per cent of GDP. A major drag on public finances was
A comparative analysis of fiscal the decline in the gross tax-GDP ratio of
deficit-GDP ratio and debt-GDP ratio of few the Central Government from 10.3 per
emerging Asian countries indicates that cent in 1991-92 to 9.4 per cent in 1996-97
India’s fiscal position is still relatively and further to a low of 8.2 per cent in 2001-
stressed notwithstanding the 02. The decline in tax-GDP ratio over this
improvement in recent years (Table 8). phase could, inter alia, be attributed to the
initial effects of the reduction in tax rates.
Deficit and Growth As already discussed in the earlier section,
A high level of fiscal deficit impacts as a part of reform of the taxation system,
the practice of monetary policy and tends indirect taxes, excise duties as well as
to have a negative impact on real GDP custom duties, were reduced substantially
growth through ‘crowding out’ effects and/ from their earlier high levels and this
or rise in interest rates in the economy. impacted the magnitude of indirect tax
Chart 2 presents the movements of GDP collections. Revenue from custom duties
RBI
2094 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
13.0
11.0
9.0
Per cent
7.0
5.0
3.0
1.0
1980-81
1990-91
2000-01
1981-82
1982-83
1991-92
1992-93
2001-02
2002-03
1984-85
1994-95
2004-05
1989-90
1999-00
1983-84
1988-89
1993-94
2003-04
1985-86
1995-96
1998-99
2005-06
2008-09
1987-88
1997-98
2007-08
1986-87
1996-97
2006-07
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2095
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
Table 9: Customs and Union Excise as per cent have been interspersed with phases of
of Imports and Value of Industrial Output stagnation. In particular, during the 1980s,
(Per cent)
the inability of the Government revenues
Year Customs Revenue/ Excise Duties/Value of
Value of Imports Industrial Output to keep pace with growing expenditure
1 2 3 resulted in widening of the overall
1990-91 47.8 22.1 resource gap. The period 1997-98 to 2002-
1991-92 46.5 23.1
1992-93 37.5 21.6 03 witnessed rising public debt with its
1993-94 30.4 19.1 adverse impact on public investment and
1994-95 29.8 18.4
1995-96 29.1 16.2 growth. Following the reform led fiscal
1996-97 30.8 16.1
1997-98 26.1 16.0
consolidation process, the combined fiscal
1998-99 22.8 16.0 deficit of Centre and States declined from
1999-00 22.5 17.7
2000-01 20.6 17.5 9.9 per cent of GDP in 2001-02 to 6.4 per
2001-02 16.4 17.7 cent in 2006-07 owing to reduction in
2002-03 15.1 17.8
2003-04 13.5 17.8 revenue deficit relative to GDP from 7.0
2004-05 11.5 16.6 per cent to 2.1 per cent. As a result, the
2005-06 9.9 16.4
2006-07 10.0 15.2 dissavings of Government administration
Source : 1. Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy declined from (-)6.0 per cent of GDP in
2006-07, RBI.
2. Budget Documents of the Union Government,
2001-02 to (-)1.3 per cent in 2006-07, and
various years. total public sector savings increased from
(-)2.0 per cent in 2001-02 to 3.2 per cent
to significant rise in collection of corporate in 2006-07. Thus, implementation of rule-
income tax. Thus, growth provides the based fiscal reforms has helped in enabling
base for rise in tax-GDP ratio of the the turnaround in the public sector savings
country. which in turn has been a key element of
These data demonstrate the efficacy the remarkable enhancement in gross
of the Indian tax reform programme domestic savings from 23.5 per cent in
undertaken since the early 1990s: direct 2001-02 to 34.8 per cent in 2006-07, along
taxes are increasing in importance and the with the substantial increase in private
tax-GDP ratio is rising. The Indian corporate sector savings.
experience also shows how long it takes Fiscal policy and monetary policy
for fiscal reform to be effective, and hence are essentially two arms of overall
the importance of consistent policy over a economic management. Both have
long period. common objectives i.e., the stabilisation
of output and prices and both belong in
Fiscal Deficit and Public Sector
the genre of policy instruments that
Savings
operate on aggregate demand, adjusting/
The reduction in fiscal deficits has smoothing it so as to ensure an economy-
also helped in turning around savings and wide correspondence with the evolution
investments in recent years. The long-term of aggregate supply, though elements of
upward trends in savings and investments fiscal policy, particularly in the levy of
RBI
2096 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
indirect taxes, can also have sectoral had to adapt to the new challenges being
components. Thus, it is critical for the thrown up by the reform process. First,
formulation and implementation of the diffusion of financial sector reforms
monetary and fiscal policies to be was altering the processes of financial
interactive and complementary so as to intermediation and the channels of policy
maximise public policy’s contribution to transmission. Second, progressive
enhancing social welfare. In essence, this international integration of the economy
is the philosophical rationale driving the as a part of reforms was increasingly
reforms of monetary and fiscal policies in subjecting the conduct of monetary policy
India since the 1990s. Accordingly, even to exogenous influences from the external
as monetar y policy provided stable environment.
monetary and financial conditions, which
aided the fiscal reform process, it has had
Objectives
to undergo significant change in The case for price stability as the
formulation and conduct in order to cope dominant objective of monetary policy
with the changing contours of fiscal policy began to assume importance in the early
and the new dynamics of monetary-fiscal 1990s (RBI, 2004). This acquired a new
coordination. urgency as strong capital flows expanded
Monetary Policy since the 1990s liquidity sizeably and began to push
inflation into double digits in the mid-
The simultaneous institution of 1990s. In response, monetary conditions
macroeconomic stabilisation and were tightened sharply, producing a
structural reforms in response to the significant and lasting disinflation during
fiscal/balance of payments crisis in 1990- the second half of the 1990s, thereby
91 brought in fundamental changes in the demonstrating the commitment of
conduct of monetary policy in India in monetary policy to ensuring price stability.
terms of a clearer recognition of the In the subsequent years up to 2003,
hierarchy of objectives, adjustments in the monetary policy pursued an
operating framework, choice of
accommodative stance as the economy
instruments, and institutional deepening.
slowed down, with an explicit policy
During the difficult years of transition in
preference during the period for a softer
the early 1990s, monetary policy
interest rate regime while continuing a
performed the role of nominal anchor for
constant vigil on the inflation front.
an economy undergoing a deep-seated
structural transformation. Tight monetary The objectives of monetary policy
control set the stage for fiscal stabilisation have evolved as those of maintaining price
and consolidation and a wide range of stability and ensuring an adequate flow
reforms encompassing the real, financial of credit to the productive sectors of the
and external sectors of the economy. In economy. In essence, monetary policy
addition, the setting of monetary policy aims to maintain a judicious balance
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2097
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
between price stability and economic The specific features of the Indian
growth. The relative emphasis between economy, including its socio-economic
the two is governed by the prevailing characteristics, predicate the investing of
circumstances at a particular point of time, the monetary authority with multiple
and consequently, there is an ongoing objectives for some time to come. A single
rebalancing of priorities. objective for monetary policy, as is usually
With the opening up of the Indian advocated, particularly in an inflation
economy and the spread of financial sector targeting (IT) framework, is not likely to
reforms aimed at functional autonomy, be appropriate for India, at least over the
prudential strengthening, operational medium term. Apart from the legitimate
efficiency and competitiveness of banks, concern regarding growth as a key
considerations of financial stability have objective, there are other factors that
assumed greater importance in recent suggest that inflation targeting may not be
years alongside the increasing openness appropriate for India. First, unlike many
of the Indian economy. Episodes of other developing countries, we have had
financial volatility, often sparked off by a record of moderate inflation, with double
sudden switches in capital flows in digit inflation being the exception, and
response to various shocks - such as the which is largely socially unacceptable.
East Asian financial crisis, sanctions after Inflation targeting has been especially
the nuclear explosions, downgrading of useful in countries that have experienced
credit ratings, the meltdown of the high inflation prior to the adoption of
information technology bubble and the inflation targeting. Second, adoption of
September 11 US terrorist attacks - inflation targeting requires the existence
required swift monetary policy responses. of an efficient monetary transmission
The Reserve Bank, therefore, began to mechanism through the operation of
emphasise the need to ensure orderly efficient financial markets and absence of
conditions in financial markets as an interest rate distortions. In India, although
important concern of monetary the money market, government debt and
management. Consequently, financial forex market have indeed developed in
stability is now being recognised as a key recent years, they still have some way to
consideration in the conduct of monetary go, whereas the corporate debt market is
policy. In fact, financial stability has still to develop. Moreover, a number of
ascended the hierarchy of monetary policy administered interest rates continue to be
objectives since the second half of the in existence to serve certain perceived
1990s. It is interesting that, in response public or social purposes. Third,
to the ongoing financial turbulence in inflationary pressures still often emanate
North America and Europe, monetary from significant supply shocks, emanating
authorities in these jurisdictions have also particularly from external sources in
given increased explicit importance to the energy and from the weather dependent
goal of maintaining financial stability. food economy. Targeting some theoretical
RBI
2098 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
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with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2099
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
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Rakesh Mohan
inflation from its targets is found to be that the dominant effect on the demand
larger and more common in EMEs (Fraga, for money in the near future need not
Minella and Goldfaj, 2003). In this context, necessarily be real income, as it had in the
it is interesting to note that a very recent past. Interest rates seemed to exercise
comprehensive survey by Alan Blinder and increasing influence on the decisions to
others (2008) is also sceptical of the hold money (RBI, 1998). Accordingly, the
benefits of IT regimes. To quote from the Reserve Bank formally adopted a multiple
study: indicator approach in April 1998. Besides
“In conclusion, the evidence broad money which remains as an
suggests that adopting an inflation target information variable, a host of
may have beneficial effects by lowering macroeconomic indicators including
inflation, by de-linking long-run inflation interest rates or rates of return in different
expectations from short-run data, and by markets (money, capital and government
reducing inflation persistence. However, securities markets) along with such data
these estimated benefits may reflect a kind as on currency, credit extended by banks
of selectivity bias: They seem to accrue and financial institutions, fiscal position,
primarily to countries that succeed in trade, capital flows, inflation rate,
stabilizing inflation. There appears to be exchange rate, refinancing and
no systematic difference in the economic transactions in foreign exchange available
performance of low-inflation countries on high frequency basis are juxtaposed
with and without explicit inflation targets. with output data for drawing policy
perspectives in the process of monetary
Accordingly, we conclude that policy formulation.
inflation targeting is one way, but certainly
not the only way, to control inflation and As channels of monetary policy
inflationary expectations. One clear transmission shift course as a result of
alternative is establishing an anti-inflation financial liberalisation, the central bank
track record that allows economic agents has to naturally operate through all the
to make reasonably accurate inferences paths that transmit its policy impulses to
about the central bank’s objectives and the real economy. Given the environment
strategy.” of high uncertainty in which monetary
authorities operate in many emerging
Operating Framework market economies like India, a single
By the late 1990s, the process of model or a limited set of indicators is not
financial liberalisation necessitated a re- a sufficient guide for the conduct of
look at the framework of monetary monetary policy. The multiple indicators
targeting and the efficiency of using broad approach provides the required
money as an intermediate target of “encompassing and integrated set of data”
monetary policy. It was increasingly felt for this purpose (RBI, 2004).
RBI
2100 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
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in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2101
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
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in Sustaining Growth
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Rakesh Mohan
term interest rates, the Reserve Bank now importantly, though there is no formal
modulates market liquidity to steer targeting of a point overnight interest rate,
monetary conditions to the desired LAF has helped to stabilise overnight call
trajectory. This is achieved by a mix of rates within a specified corridor, i.e., the
policy instruments including changes in difference between the fixed repo and
reserve requirements and standing reverse repo rates (150 basis points as of
facilities and open market (including repo) November 2008). The width of the corridor
operations which affect the quantum of has varied from 100 to 300 basis points
marginal liquidity and changes in policy since the introduction of uniform price
rates, such as the Bank Rate and reverse auction from March 2004. In response to
repo/repo rates, which impact the price of the emerging market conditions, the
liquidity. reverse repo rate had been reduced to 4.5
per cent by August 2003, but then had to
Liquidity Adjustment Facility be raised to 6.0 per cent. Correspondingly
Reforms in the monetary policy the repo rate was reduced to 6.00 per cent
operating framework led to the in March 2004 and was then raised in 10
introduction of the Liquidity Adjustment steps to 9.00 per cent by July 2008. Since
Facility (LAF) in 2000. Under the LAF, the then, the repo rate has been cut by 150
Reserve Bank sets its policy rates, i.e., repo basis points to 7.5 per cent in response to
and reverse repo rates and carries out repo/ the to the evolving global and domestic
reverse repo operations, thereby providing macroeconomic and monetary conditions.
a corridor for overnight money market The LAF has thus enabled the Reserve
rates. The LAF has settled into a fixed rate Bank to affect demand for funds through
overnight auction mode since April 2004. policy rate changes. The LAF is also
LAF operations continue to be effective in modulating liquidity in the
supplemented by access to the Reserve economy, which is affected continuously
Bank’s standing facilities linked to the LAF by changes in government cash balances,
repo rate - export credit refinance to banks and by the volatility in excess capital flows.
and standing liquidity facility to the Open Market Operations
primary dealers.
Since the onset of reforms, as part
The introduction of LAF has had of the shift to indirect instruments of
several advantages. First, it made possible monetar y policy, the Reserve Bank
the transition from direct instruments of reactivated open market operations (OMO)
monetary control to indirect instruments. as an instrument of monetar y
Second, LAF has provided greater management. This was enabled by a
flexibility in determining both the transition to a system of market
quantum of adjustment as well as the rates determined interest rates in Government
by responding to the needs of the system securities and the development of an
on a daily basis. Third and most adequate institutional framework in the
RBI
2102 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2103
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
2104 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2105
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
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with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
consistent with the conduct of monetary financial markets and the conduct of
policy. Adherence to FRBM targets is monetary policy.”
critical for the objective of maintaining
Market Development
price stability, and more importantly, to
stabilise inflation expectations in the A key element of structural reforms
economy. In the context of monetary-fiscal has been a greater role for markets in the
interface, as noted by Reddy (2008), allocation of resources. First, the Reserve
Bank began to deregulate interest rates,
“harmonious relations between the
beginning with the removal of restrictions
Government and the RBI have, no doubt,
on the inter-bank market as early as 1989.
generally contributed to the successful
This was supported by the process of
policy outcomes thus far, but it would not
putting the market borrowing programme
be appropriate to conclude that there are
of the Government through the auction
no differences in analyses, approaches,
process in 1992-93. This was buttressed
judgements and instrumentalities. In the
by a phased deregulation of lending rates
given legal and cultural context, while
making every effort to give its views, either in the credit markets. At present, banks
informally or formally, but as are free to fix their lending rates on all
unambiguously as possible, the RBI classes of loans except small loans below
generally respects the wishes and final Rs.200,000. The deregulation of deposit
inclination of the Government. The RBI, rates began from 1997 and banks are now
however, has to accept the responsibility free to offer interest rates on all classes of
for all its decisions and actions, while domestic deposits (except savings
being generally conscious of the impact of deposits), not only in terms of tenor but
its articulation and actions on its also in terms of size.
credibility. The Government, for its part, Second, the process of interest rate
recognises the dilemmas posed to the RBI, deregulation had to be supported by the
and accords significant weight to the RBI’s development of the market structure,
judgements”. especially to address the problem of
“In sum, de jure, the RBI has not missing markets at the short end. A
been accorded autonomy on par with number of money market instruments,
recent trends in some of the industrialised such as commercial paper, short-term
as well as emerging economies; but, de Treasury Bills, certificates of deposit, and
facto, the recent experience reflects a the like have been introduced
progressively higher degree of autonomy progressively, supplemented by a parallel
being enjoyed by the RBI. During the process of market development, beginning
period of reform, since 1991, there has with the institution of the Discount and
been a gradual and mutually agreed Finance House of India in 1988 as a market
progress towards greater autonomy in maker with two-way quotes in the money
matters relating particularly to the markets.
RBI
2106 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2107
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
2108 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
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in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
without any target or band but with In the foreign exchange market,
interventions by the Reserve Bank to there is evidence of growing flexibility in
ensure orderly conditions in the foreign the day-to-day movements in the exchange
exchange market. In the Government rate of the Indian rupee, consistent with
securities market, the objective has been the stated objective of exchange rate
to develop depth and liquidity and a management (Table 13 and Chart 3).
smooth sovereign yield curve that could Average daily absolute change in the
serve as a benchmark for pricing of other exchange rate of the rupee has seen a
financial instruments. A comparison of consistent rise over the years. During the
movements in these key markets across 1990s, there were large discrete changes
the decades of the 1990s and the 2000s in the exchange rate, while the exchange
(up to 2007) indicates a marked decline in rate was relatively unchanged for the rest
the weighted average call money rate and of the time. In contrast, in the past few
in its variability (Table 12). This years, there has been a higher degree of
moderation of volatility is also reflected two-way movements in the exchange rate
in a narrowing of the bid-ask spread over on day-to-day basis. At the same time, the
time, indicative of the smoothing role Reserve Bank tries to avoid excessive
played by the evolving market volatility in the foreign exchange market
microstructure. through its market operations. There has
Money Market
Weighted Call Rate 11.6 39.1 6.3 25.7
Bid-Ask Spread 0.31 2.19 0.28 3.76
Foreign Exchange Market
Spot Exchange Rate (Rupees per Us dollar 32.7 23.3 46.0 3.2
Bid-Ask Spread in the Spot Market 0.050 # 125.0 # 0.024 25.8
Forward Premia (6-months) 4.7 – 2.7 –
Average Daily Turnover (US $ Billion) 5.0 ^ 33.0 *
Government Securities Market $
1 Year 10.46 5.9 6.60 25.8
10 Year 12.35 8.1 7.59 23.9
Spread (10 Yr. – 1 Yr.) 1.89 – 0.99 –
# : Pertains to data from 1993-94. * : Pertains to data for 2006-07.
^ : Pertains to data for 1997-98. $ : 1990s pertain to 1996-2000.
Note : Coefficient of variations have been computed from (a) daily data in the case of bid-ask spread in the money market
and turnover in the forex market and (b) monthly data in the case of weighted call rate, spot exchange rate, bid-ask
spread in the spot forex market, forward premia, 1-year yield, 10-year yield and spread.
Source : Reserve Bank of India, NSE-FIMMDA
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2109
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
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with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
Table 13: Exchange Rate of the Indian Rupee vis-à-vis the US dollar
Year Coefficient of Daily absolute change Number of days during the year with
variation in the exchange rate daily absolute change of more than
(daily data) (annual average) 10 paisa 20 paisa 30 paisa
(per cent) (Rupees per dollar)
1 2 3 4 5 6
1993-94 0.10 0.01 1 0 0
1994-95 0.29 0.01 3 2 1
1995-96 5.75 0.10 57 34 23
1996-97 1.35 0.04 21 10 2
1997-98 4.21 0.07 45 20 10
1998-99 2.12 0.05 37 14 6
1999-2000 0.68 0.03 8 1 0
2000-01 2.35 0.04 27 8 1
2001-02 1.47 0.04 19 2 1
2002-03 0.94 0.03 2 0 0
2003-04 1.56 0.05 24 5 3
2004-05 2.30 0.10 89 32 13
2005-06 1.79 0.07 62 13 5
2006-07 1.98 0.09 88 26 7
2007-08 2.07 0.11 98 41 20
Note : Columns 4, 5 and 6 provide data on the number of days during a year when the daily change in exchange rate
(Rupees per US dollar) has exceeded 10 paisa, 20 paisa, and 30 paisa, respectively.
Source : Reserve Bank of India.
also been a substantial rise in turnover in trading volumes. Yield spreads have also
the forex market. In the Government tended to narrow over this period,
securities market, there has been a general pointing to a flattening of the yield curve
softening of yields (until recent months) as long term inflation expectations have
across maturities; however, volatility has become anchored and policy
increased in the current period, interventions in the short end of the
attributable to greater external money market have increased in
integration of the market and rising frequency (see Table 12).
1.00
Rupees per US dollar
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
RBI
2110 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2111
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2113
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
2114 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
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Rakesh Mohan
reforms in tax policy in terms of relative bonds to fund these subsidies is also not
emphasis. This would enable further sustainable if the need for these subsidies
shifts in tax revenue toward direct taxes persists.
from indirect taxes, thereby aiding greater The second issue on the
economic efficiency. At the state level also, expenditure side relates to the funding of
the move to VAT has provided very public investment, particularly related to
significant tax rationalisation, and infrastructure. As documented, public
emphasis now needs to be put on its investment has been reduced over the past
administration. In this sphere, the next decade or so. Whereas private investment
step of reform would, of course, be the has clearly substituted or complemented
proposed move towards a unified “Goods public investment successfully in areas
and Service Tax” regime encompassing the such as telecom, ports and airports, and
Centre and the States. The foundations of partially in roads and power, total
an efficient fiscal regime in India have, investment in infrastructure is clearly
therefore, been achieved. inadequate, and could constrain further
On the expenditure side, containing acceleration in overall economic growth.
the subsidy burden has proved difficult, With increasing urbanisation there is need
although its increase as a proportion of for accelerated public investment in
GDP has been contained. The current infrastructure. While processes for
world environment of elevated oil, food inducing private investment need
and fertilizer prices is not conducive to the continuous improvement, there is need
expectation of significant reduction in for a reassessment of desirable, expected
these subsidies in the near future. The and feasible public investment
prognosis on international prices of energy requirements, which are likely to be higher
and food is not encouraging in the than what is currently envisaged. Third,
medium term as of now. So public policy the government is already engaged in
in these areas has to take into account expanding programmes and spending for
expectations over the medium term: human development. Funding for these
smoothening of prices of such important needs will continue to require
items of common consumption can be enhancement.
justified if elevated prices are deemed to The acceleration of economic
be temporary. Funding such subsidies over growth to the next level is therefore likely
an extended period of time is likely to to lead to an enhancement of government
become unsustainable: hence directly spending as a proportion of GDP, which
addressing the needs of those less well off would be consistent with the experience
and who are less capable of coping with of other countries as their per capita
these price increases may be more incomes increased. This then is the main
desirable, rather than suppressing prices challenge confronting Indian fiscal policy:
overall. The recent practice of issuing how to provide for an enhancement in
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2115
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
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in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
2116 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
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in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
higher inflation. However, the issue of large current account deficits for the real
remains how long and to what extent such economy? Are they sustainable and, if not,
an exchange rate management strategy what are the implications for financial
would work given the fact that we are stability in developing countries? India
faced with large and continuing capital always had a modest current account
flows apart from strengthening current deficit though, because of remittances and
receipts on account of remittances and service exports, the trade deficit has
software exports. This issue has assumed widened significantly in recent years.
increased importance over the last couple These are the issues that monetary policy
of years with increased capital flows will have to continue to deal with while
arising from the higher sustained growth addressing the impact of capital flows.
performance of the economy and
References
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Tax Reform in India”, Economic and
Large capital inflows in recent years,
Political Weekly, May 14.
far in excess of the current account
surplus, have, therefore, necessitated a Ball L., Sheridan N.. (2003) :“Does inflation
certain amount of capital account Targeting Matter?”. NBER Working Paper
management, along with intervention in No 9577.
the forex market to curb volatility in the Bhattacharyya, I and P. Ray (2007): “How
exchange rate (Mohan, 2007a). do we assess Monetary Policy Stance?
Management of volatility in financial Characterization of a Narrative Monetary
markets and implications for the conduct Measure for India”, special issue on
of monetary operations will continue to Money, Banking and Finance, Economic
need attention. Greater inflows will and Political Weekly, March 31, 2007.
inevitably exert pressure on the Reserve
Bank’s ability to manage the impossible Blinder, Alan S., Michael Ehrmann, Marcel
trinity of independent monetary policy, Fratzscher, Jakob De Haan, David-Jan
open capital account and a managed Jansen (2008) : Central Bank
exchange rate, keeping in view that the Communication and Monetary Policy: A
impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Survey of Theory and Evidence, NBER
the real sector in developing economies Working Paper No. 13932.
is much higher than in mature economies, Borio, C and I. Shim (2007): “What Can
particularly in labour intensive low (Macro-) Prudential Policy do to Support
technology price sensitive goods. To what Monetary Policy?” BIS Working Paper No
extent is the current account balance a 242, December.
good guide to evaluation of the appropriate
Fraga A., Minella, A. and Goldfajn, I. (2003).
level of an exchange rate? To what extent
Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market
should the capital account influence the
Economies. NBER Working Paper 10019,
exchange rate? What are the implications
October.
RBI
Monthly Bulletin
December 2008 2117
SPEECH
The Role of Fiscal and
Monetary Policies
in Sustaining Growth
with Stability in India
Rakesh Mohan
RBI
2118 Monthly Bulletin
December 2008