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Kessler syndrome
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The Kessler syndrome (also called the

Kessler effect,[1][2] collisional cascading, or
ablation cascade), proposed by NASA
scientist Donald J. Kessler in 1978, is a
scenario in which the density of objects in low
Earth orbit (LEO) due to space pollution is high
enough that collisions between objects could
cause a cascade in which each collision
generates space debris that increases the
likelihood of further collisions.[3] In 2009
Kessler wrote that modeling results had
concluded that the debris environment was
already unstable, "such that any attempt to
achieve a growth-free small debris
environment by eliminating sources of past
debris will likely fail because fragments from
future collisions will be generated faster than
atmospheric drag will remove them".[4] One
implication is that the distribution of debris in
orbit could render space activities and the use
of satellites in specific orbital ranges difficult
for many generations.[3]

Space debris populations seen

from outside geosynchronous
orbit (GSO). There are two primary
debris fields: the ring of objects in
GSO and the cloud of objects in
low Earth orbit (LEO).

History …

NORAD, Gabbard and Kessler …

Willy Ley predicted in 1960 that "In time, a

number of such accidentally too-lucky shots
will accumulate in space and will have to be
removed when the era of manned space flight
arrives".[5] After the launch of Sputnik 1 in
1957, the North American Aerospace Defense
Command (NORAD) began compiling a
database (the Space Object Catalog) of all
known rocket launches and objects reaching
orbit: satellites, protective shields and upper-
and lower-stage booster rockets. NASA later
published[when?] modified versions of the
database in two-line element set,[6] and during
the early 1980s the CelesTrak bulletin board
system re-published them.[7]

Gabbard diagram of almost 300 pieces of debris from

the disintegration of the five-month-old third stage of
the Chinese Long March 4 booster on 11 March 2000

The trackers who fed the database were aware

of other objects in orbit, many of which were
the result of in-orbit explosions.[8] Some were
deliberately caused during the 1960s anti-
satellite weapon (ASAT) testing, and others
were the result of rocket stages blowing up in
orbit as leftover propellant expanded and
ruptured their tanks. To improve tracking,
NORAD employee John Gabbard kept a
separate database. Studying the explosions,
Gabbard developed a technique for predicting
the orbital paths of their products, and
Gabbard diagrams (or plots) are now widely
used. These studies were used to improve the
modeling of orbital evolution and decay.[9]

When the NORAD database became publicly

available during the 1970s, NASA scientist
Donald J. Kessler applied the technique
developed for the asteroid-belt study to the
database of known objects. In June 1978,
Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais co-authored
"Collision Frequency of Artificial Satellites: The
Creation of a Debris Belt",[3] demonstrating
that the process controlling asteroid evolution
would cause a similar collision process in LEO
in decades rather than billions of years. They
concluded that by about 2000, space debris
would outpace micrometeoroids as the primary
ablative risk to orbiting spacecraft.[4]

At the time, it was widely thought[by whom?] that

drag from the upper atmosphere would de-
orbit debris faster than it was
created.[citation needed] However, Gabbard was
aware that the number and type of objects in
space were under-represented in the NORAD
data and was familiar with its behavior. In an
interview shortly after the publication of the
1978 paper, Gabbard coined the term Kessler
syndrome to refer to the accumulation of
debris;[4] it became widely used after its
appearance in a 1982 Popular Science
article,[10] which won the Aviation-Space
Writers Association 1982 National Journalism
Award.[4]

Follow-up studies …

Baker–Nunn cameras were

widely used to study
space debris.

The lack of hard data about space debris

prompted a series of studies to better
characterize the LEO environment. In October
1979, NASA provided Kessler with funding for
further studies.[4] Several approaches were
used by these studies.

Optical telescopes and short-wavelength radar

were used to measure the number and size of
space objects, and these measurements
demonstrated that the published population
count was at least 50% too low.[11] Before this,
it was believed that the NORAD database
accounted for the majority of large objects in
orbit. Some objects (typically, US military
spacecraft) were found to be omitted from the
NORAD list, and others were not included
because they were considered unimportant.
The list could not easily account for objects
under 20 cm (8 in) in size—in particular, debris
from exploding rocket stages and several
1960s anti-satellite tests.[4]

Returned spacecraft were microscopically

examined for small impacts, and sections of
Skylab and the Apollo Command/Service
Module which were recovered were found to
be pitted. Each study indicated that the debris
flux was higher than expected and debris was
the primary source of micrometeoroids and
orbital debris collisions in space. LEO already
demonstrated the Kessler syndrome.[4]

In 1978, Kessler found that 42 percent of

cataloged debris was the result of 19 events,
primarily explosions of spent rocket stages
(especially US Delta
rockets).[12][full citation needed] He discovered this
by first identifying those launches that were
described as having a large number of objects
associated with a payload, then researching
the literature to determine the rockets used in
the launch. In 1979, this finding resulted in
establishment of the NASA Orbital Debris
Program after a briefing to NASA senior
management, overturning the previously held
belief that most unknown debris was from old
ASAT tests, not from US upper stage rocket
explosions that could seemingly be easily
managed by depleting the unused fuel from
the upper stage Delta rocket following the
payload injection. Beginning in 1986, when it
was discovered that other international
agencies were possibly experiencing the same
type of problem, NASA expanded its program
to include international agencies, the first
being the European Space Agency.[13]: 2 A
number of other Delta components in orbit
(Delta was a workhorse of the US space
program) had not yet exploded.[citation needed]

A new Kessler syndrome …

During the 1980s, the US Air Force (USAF)

conducted an experimental program to
determine what would happen if debris collided
with satellites or other debris. The study
demonstrated that the process differed from
micrometeoroid collisions, with large chunks of
debris created which would become collision
threats.[4]

In 1991, Kessler published "Collisional

cascading: The limits of population growth in
low Earth orbit"[14] with the best data then
available. Citing the USAF conclusions about
creation of debris, he wrote that although
almost all debris objects (such as paint flecks)
were lightweight, most of its mass was in
debris about 1 kg (2 lb 3 oz) or heavier. This
mass could destroy a spacecraft on impact,
creating more debris in the critical-mass
area.[15] According to the National Academy of
Sciences:

A 1 kg object impacting at 10 km/s,

for example, is probably capable of
catastrophically breaking up a
1,000 kg spacecraft if it strikes a
high-density element in the
spacecraft. In such a breakup,
numerous fragments larger than
1 kg would be created.[16]

Kessler's analysis divided the problem into

three parts. With a low-enough density, the
addition of debris by impacts is slower than
their decay rate and the problem is not
significant. Beyond that is a critical density,
where additional debris leads to additional
collisions. At densities beyond this critical
mass production exceeds decay, leading to a
cascading chain reaction reducing the orbiting
population to small objects (several
centimeters in size) and increasing the hazard
of space activity.[15] This chain reaction is
known as the Kessler syndrome.[4]

In an early 2009 historical overview, Kessler

summed up the situation:

Aggressive space activities without

adequate safeguards could
significantly shorten the time
between collisions and produce an
intolerable hazard to future
spacecraft. Some of the most
environmentally dangerous
activities in space include large
constellations such as those
initially proposed by the Strategic
Defense Initiative in the mid-
1980s, large structures such as
those considered in the late-1970s
for building solar power stations in
Earth orbit, and anti-satellite
warfare using systems tested by the
USSR, the US, and China over the
past 30 years. Such aggressive
activities could set up a situation
where a single satellite failure could
lead to cascading failures of many
satellites in a period much shorter
than years.[4]

Anti-satellite missile tests …

Main article: Anti-satellite weapon

In 1985, the first anti-satellite (ASAT) missile

was used in the destruction of a satellite. The
American 1985 ASM-135 ASAT test was
carried out, in which the Solwind P78-1 satellite
flying at an altitude of 555 kilometres was
struck by the 14 kilogram payload at a velocity
of 24,000 kilometres per hour (15,000 mph;
6.7 km/s). When NASA learned of U.S. Air
Force plans for the Solwind ASAT test, they
modeled the effects of the test and determined
that debris produced by the collision would still
be in orbit late into the 1990s. It would force
NASA to enhance debris shielding for its
planned space station.[17]

On 11 January 2007, China conducted an anti-

satellite missile test in which one of their FY-1C
weather satellites was chosen as the target.
The collision occurred at an altitude of 865
kilometres, when the satellite with a mass of
750 kilograms was struck in a head-on-
collision by a kinetic payload traveling with a
speed of 8 km/s (18,000 mph) in the opposite
direction. The resulting debris orbits the Earth
with a mean altitude above 850 kilometres, and
will likely remain in orbit for decades or
centuries.[18]

The destruction of the Kosmos 1408 satellite

by a Russian ASAT missile on November 15,
2021, has created a large debris cloud, with
1500 pieces of debris being tracked and an
estimated hundreds of thousands of pieces too
small to track. Since the satellite was in a polar
orbit, and its debris has spread out between
the altitudes of 300 km and 1000 km, it could
potentially collide with any LEO satellite,
including the International Space Station and
the Chinese Space Station
(Tiangong).[19][20][21]

Debris generation and

destruction

Implications

Avoidance and reduction

Potential triggers

In fiction

See also

Citations

General bibliography

Further reading

External links

Last edited 19 days ago by Marxman…

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