The Hegemony of Realists: Surge in US Arms exports post Russia-Ukraine War

Haseeb Hussain1

Abstract
The Russo-Ukraine war in 2014 has had a significant impact on the global arms market,
particularly in the US and France. This war led to a surge in US arms exports as Europe and
middle east sought to strengthen their military capabilities in response to this war. The US
government also relaxed export regulations to boost its arms sales, which further fueled the
demand for American-made weapons. This paper explores the factors that contributed to the
surge in US arms exports, including the political climate, changes in export regulations, and the
increasing demand for advanced military technology from the US instead of Russia. From a
Russian perspective, this trend represents a concerning shift in the balance of power, as
countries in the region have increased their military capabilities with American-made weapons.
US arms sales is a threat to its national security and a violation of the international arms control
regime. This paper analyzes the surge in US arms exports, exploring the political, economic, and
strategic factors. It also assesses the potential consequences of this trend for the future of
regional and global security, including the possibility of a new arms race. It also analyzes the
implications of this trend for global security and the future of the arms trade.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine war, the surge in US arms, Russia’s global arms export suffering,
Arms trade.

1
Haseeb Hussain is a research scholar of MPhil Strategic Studies at National Defence University Islamabad,
Pakistan. His area of interest is international political economy, war management and Terrorism. The authors’ email
address is haseebhussain39@gmail.com.
Introduction
Following the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity, the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in
2014, first concentrating on the regions of Crimea and Donbas in Ukraine. The first eight years
of the conflict comprised the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and the conflict in Donbas
(2014–present) between Ukraine and separatists with Russian roots living in Ukraine. This war
expanded significantly when Russia expanded war on 24 Feb 2022. 2 This war has had serious
impacts around the globe including the economic crisis, supply of grains shortage, energy and
fertilizers shortage, and food shortage as both are one of the biggest suppliers of wheat and
sunflower oil and one of the main facts is a surge in US arms export. 3 One of the lesser-known
consequences of the war has been the surge in US arms exports to countries in the region and
beyond, as governments seek to bolster their military capabilities in the face of perceived threats.
This paper explains the factors contributing to this trend and assesses the implications for
arms-exporting countries, regional security dynamics, and the global arms trade. In recent years,
the US has emerged as the world's largest arms exporter, with a growing share of its sales going
to countries in the Middle East and Asia. While the drivers of this trend are complex and
multifaceted, the Russo-Ukraine war appears to have played a significant role in boosting
demand for US weapons and military equipment. Indeed, since 2014, US arms exports to the
region have surged, with countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar ranking among the top
recipients of US weapons.

Literature Review
The history and evolution of the global arms trade, including its economic, political, and
social dimensions. The literature review for a study on the surge in US arms exports following
the Russo-Ukraine war would typically begin with a review of the existing research and
scholarship on the arms trade, international security, and conflict resolution. This would include
a review of academic articles, books, and policy reports on the subject, as well as relevant case
studies and empirical data.
Agathe Demarais wrote in his book “Backfire: How sanctions reshape the world against
US Interests” that the US now uses sanctions as its primary tool for foreign policy. Trade tariffs,
financial penalties, and export controls are examples of coercive economic measures that have a
global impact on many businesses and nations. Policymakers in the United States view sanctions
as a low-cost strategy, but these measures frequently fall short of their intended objectives and
can even harm American interests due to their potential side effects.4
The facts regarding the rise in US weapons control and the decline in Russian arms
control are examined in the SIPRI paper “Surge in arms imports to Europe, while US dominance
of the global arms trade increases” The effects of the arms trade on global security and stability,
including how it contributes to conflict and violence, as well as the possible dangers of weapon
proliferation.5

2
Mariana Budjeryn, “Revisiting Ukraine’s Nuclear Past Will Not Help Secure Its Future,” Lawfare Journal, May
2021. https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/revisiting-ukraines-nuclear-past-will-not-help-secure-its-future.
3
Francesco Pistilli, “Ukraine war: What are the impacts on the world today?,” Rescue.org, August 2023.
https://www.rescue.org/article/ukraine-war-what-are-impacts-world-today.
4
Ali Ahmadi, “Backfire: how sanctions reshape the world against U.S. interests,” International Affairs, Volume 98,
Issue 6, November 2022, Pages 2164–2166.
https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac250
 The article “War in Ukraine by far the most ‘Hi-Tech’ the world has ever seen; experts
call it a ‘Field Day’ for American firms” by Prakash Nanda analyzes the technological
advancements. Throughout history, technology has been the most basic requirement. In the end,
a war is decided by the quantity and quality of the technology. It also shed light on importance of
technology in Russia-Ukraine war.6
And further relevant information regarding the moral aspects of the arms trade, such as
the possible consequences for human rights of selling weapons to nations with a history of
violating human rights laws and the part that arms transfers play in escalating or prolonging war
and suffering among people. The policy and regulatory frameworks governing the arms trade,
including international treaties and conventions, as well as national regulations and export
control regimes. The strategic and political factors that influence arms export decisions include
national security interests, political alliances and partnerships, and economic considerations. 7
Methodology
A qualitative research method with secondary data sources is used for research. It is an
observational study and will incorporate secondary data from various authentic sources. The
methodology will also combine theoretical analysis with illustrations for better understanding. It
will analyze the official documents, statements, books, media reports, and research articles
regarding the topic. This research is not the case of ideas and beliefs which people can take
through prejudices.
Research Questions
What is the impact of the Russo-Ukraine war on arms-exporting countries?
Why have these trends occurred post-Ukraine war?
And how this war is going to impact future global politics and strategic stability?
Theoretical Framework
The theoretical framework that is applied to this study of the surge in US arms exports
following the Russo-Ukraine war is classical Realism in which the Thucydides trap can be
discussed. The realist perspective emphasizes the importance of power and security in
international relations. In this context, the surge in US arms exports can be seen as a response to
the Russian arms race and an attempt to project power and influence in the region. And use such
an excellent opportunity instead of resolving it.
While discussing the surge in arms race it is important to discuss International political
economy. The international political economy perspective emphasizes the economic dimensions
of international relations, including the role of trade, investment, and economic policies. In this
context, the surge in US arms exports can reflect broader economic interests and priorities, such
5
“Surge in arms imports to Europe, while US dominance of the global arms trade increases,” SIPRI, March 13,
2023. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2023/surge-arms-imports-europe-while-us-dominance-global-arms-
trade-increases#:~:text=The%20United%20States'%20share%20of,Peace%20Research%20Institute%20(SIPRI) .
6
Parkash Nanda, “War in Ukraine by Far the Most ‘Hi-Tech’ The World Has Ever Seen; Experts Call It A ‘Field
Day’ For American Firms,” The Eurasian Times, March 2023. https://eurasiantimes.com/from-ai-internet-satellites-
to-naval-drones-war-in-ukraine/.
7
Jonathan Masters, “Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia,” Council on Foreign Relations, Feb
2023. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-crossroads-europe-and-russia .
as the desire to promote domestic defense industries and generate revenue from arms sales by the
US and counter Russian hegemony.
Hypothesis
Under above circumstances the hypothesis stated as, the surge in US arms exports post-
Russo-Ukraine war driven by the security dilemma of European countries who wanted to bolster
their defense forces, which may have significant future implications for regional and global
stability.

Impact of the Russo-Ukraine War on arms-exporting Countries

As arms expansion globally declined due to economic situations all around the world
similarly on the other hand there is arms expansion by the US increased by 14% in the effect of
the Russian-Ukraine war which make the US 39% of global arms exporter.8
The main factors that may have contributed to the surge in US arms exports following the Russo-
Ukraine war are:
US foreign policy and strategic interests: The US has long sought to maintain its global
military dominance and strategic presence, and the surge in arms exports can be observed to
achieve these goals. Additionally, the US may view increased arms sales to so-called support its
allies and partners in the region and counterbalance Russia's influence but the main theme behind
the curtain is to control economic situations.9
Geopolitical dynamics in the region: The war between Russia and Ukraine, and the US
expansion of arms created significant regional instability and security concerns, parts from
Ukraine war, leading European countries to seek increased military support from the US. The
ongoing wars and instability in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Yemen, also created
demand for US arms.10
Demand from recipient countries: The US arms exports were driven in part by demand from
recipient countries, which sought advanced military equipment and technology, and the US
became an achieved economic giant.11
Economic and commercial factors: The US arms industry is a significant economic driver, and
the surge in exports may be seen to boost US defense exports. Additionally, US arms
manufacturers may have been motivated by profit-seeking incentives. For example, Big 5 of
US.12
It is important to note that the relative importance of each of these factors may vary depending
on the specific context and circumstances of the surge in US arms exports.

8
“Surge in arms imports to Europe, while US dominance of the global arms trade increases,” SIPRI, March 13,
2023. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2023/surge-arms-imports-europe-while-us-dominance-global-arms-
trade-increases.
9
Joshua Shifrinson, “Threats, reassurance, and deterrence: Rethinking the security of America's allies,”
International Security, 2016, 40(1), 9-48.
10
A. Cohen, “The US and the Ukraine war: Assessing Washington's response,” Survival, 2016, 58(2), 27-38.
11
Pieter D. Wezeman, Alexandra Kuimova and Siemon T. Wezeman, “Trends in international arms transfers,”
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute 2022. https://doi.org/10.55163/CBZJ9986.
12
W. D. Hartung, “The military-industrial complex revisited: How weapons makers are shaping U.S. foreign and
military policies,” Global focus: U.S. foreign policy at the turn of the millennium, M. Honey & T. Barry (Eds.) (New
York: St. Martin’s Press, 2000), 21-43 http://www.kropfpolisci.com/mic.hartung.pdf.
 The big 25 arms exporters percentage, 2018–22.13

Why have these trends occurred post-Ukraine war?

Several factors have contributed to these trends following Ukraine war. One major factor
is the increase in global tensions and wars. As tensions rise, countries seek to strengthen their
military capabilities, which often involves purchasing weapons and other military equipment
from other countries. For example, the ongoing war in Syria and involvement of great powers
such as Russia and the US.14 The war in Yemen, which has involved a Saudi-led coalition
fighting against Houthi rebels with support from Iran. Tensions between the US and North Korea
over the latter's nuclear program. The ongoing war in Afghanistan, which involves the Taliban
and the US-led coalition forces. The territorial disputes in the SCS, which have involved China
and Southeast Asian countries. The ongoing war between Israel and Palestine, which has
escalated at various points in recent years.
Another factor is the changing geopolitical landscape. Ukraine is linked with Europe, so
threat also possess to Europe and many countries in Europe and Asia have become increasingly
concerned about their security in the face of this new reality. As a result, they are looking to
strengthen their defenses, and many of them are turning to the US for assistance. For example,
Poland has been one of the most vocal critics of this war and has expressed concern about
Russia's military buildup near its borders. 15 The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania)
have also expressed concern about Russia's actions in Ukraine and its military activities in the
13
“SIPRI Arms Transfers Database,” SIPRI accessed March 2023.
14
Lucy Rodgers, David Gritten, James Offer and Patrick Asare, “Syria: The Story of the War,” BBC News, April 22,
2023. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26116868.
region.16 Germany, on the other hand, has been trying to balance its economic ties with Russia
and its security concerns.17 In Asia, Japan has expressed concern about Russia's military
activities in the Asia-Pacific region, including its deployment of missile systems in the Kuril
Islands.18 South Korea has expressed concern about Russia's increased military cooperation with
North Korea and its nuclear program.19 Vietnam has expressed concern about Russia's increased
military presence in the South China Sea and its support for China's territorial claims in the
region.20
Additionally, the US government has been actively promoting arms sales as a means of
boosting the economy and creating jobs. The Trump administration made a concerted effort to
increase arms sales, and the Biden administration has continued this trend. The surge in US arms
sales post-Ukraine war can also attributed to a combination of global tensions, changing
geopolitical dynamics, and government policies aimed at promoting arms exports.

Impact of Surge in Arms Race on Future Global Politics and strategic stability
The surge in the arms race has significant implications for future global politics. The
increase in arms sales and military spending can lead to a destabilization of the global balance of
power, as countries seek to assert their dominance and protect their interests. This can lead to an
increase in regional wars and the potential for global escalation, as seen in recent tensions
between the US and Russia, and China's growing military assertiveness in the SCS. 21
Furthermore, the surge in arms sales can contribute to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction, as countries seek to acquire advanced weapons technology to enhance their military
capabilities. This can increase the risk of nuclear and other forms of catastrophic war, posing a
significant threat to global security and stability.
As far as strategic stability is concerned, Strategic stability concept comes from authors like
Thomas shelling, Hermann khan and Samuel Huntington. Strategic stability is all about
minimizing the risk of nuclear war. To sustain this there needs to be continuous dialogue. There
are two important broader frameworks of strategic stability in terms of international relations i.e.,
crisis stability and arms race stability. Arms Race is a situation where states bolster and rapidly
build up military capabilities. This leads to instability and war at conventional level because
nuclear armed states are deterred from engaging in direct large-scale wars. In context of US and
French surge in arms race stability-instability paradox and declining strategic stability can be
observed in following ways.
15
“Poland raises alarm as Wagner forces move closer to border,” NEWS AGENCIES, July 29, 2023.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/29/poland-raises-alarm-as-wagner-forces-move-closer-to-border.
16
Holly Ellyatt, “Fears grow among Russia’s neighbors that Putin might not stop at Ukraine,” CNBC, March 8,
2022. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/baltic-states-in-europe-fear-putin-has-them-in-his-sights.html.
17
“Germany's Dilemma: Caught Between Russia and the West,” BBC, September 5, 2022.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45456672.
18
“Japan expresses concern over China and Russia military co-operation,” The Irish Times, July 28,2023.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-expresses-concern-about-russian-military-activities-pacific-2021-
09-06/.
19
Cynthia Kim and Hyonhee Shin, “South Korea urges Russia to halt military cooperation with North Korea,”
REUTERS, September 19, 2023. https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/south-korea-expresses-concern-over-
russian-cooperation-north-korea.
20
Le Nguyen, “Vietnam’s Ties to Russia Tested by China’s Moves in South China Sea,” VOA, April 11, 2023.
https://www.voanews.com/a/vietnam-s-ties-to-russia-tested-by-china-s-moves-in-south-china-sea/7046658.html.
21
Dr Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Alexandra Marksteiner, Xiao Liang, Dr Diego Lopes da Silva and Dr Nan Tian
"Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2021." SIPRI April 26, 2022. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2022/sipri-
fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2021.
  Conventional Warfare
 Increase in regional wars and proxy wars.
 Risk of regional escalation
Now, global politics is changing. Recent developments suggest that Europe is seeking to
become more independent in its defense capabilities, including the development of its own
weapons systems. The decision to pursue greater autonomy is partly due to concerns over the
reliability of the United States as a defense partner under the Trump administration and a desire
to be less reliant on American military technology and equipment.
In 2017, French President Emmanuel Macron called for the creation of a "real European
army" to protect the continent from external threats, arguing that Europe needed to be less
dependent on the United States for its defense. This sentiment has been echoed by other
European leaders, who have called for greater investment in defense and security to enhance
European autonomy and reduce reliance on US military technology. 22 The trend “greater
European self-reliance” is likely to continue in the coming years, particularly given the ongoing
challenges facing the transatlantic alliance and the changing global security landscape. 23
As Europe seeks to become more independent in its defense capabilities and reduce its
reliance on the United States, there is a risk that this could lead to tensions and war between
Europe and the US. The US has long been a dominant military power in Europe and has played a
key role in European security through institutions such as NATO. However, as Europe seeks to
develop its military technologies and capabilities, it may begin to challenge the US's position in
the region.
Moreover, there are concerns that the rise of China and other non-Western powers could
further complicate the relationship between Europe and the US. As China's economic and
military influence grows, it may seek to form closer ties with Europe, potentially leading to a
realignment of global power dynamics. While it is difficult to predict how the relationship
between Europe and the US will evolve in the coming years, the risk of war and tension between
these two powers cannot be discounted. The Thucydides Trap serves as a reminder of the
potential dangers of a changing global order, and the need for careful diplomacy and
international cooperation to prevent wars from escalating.
The surge in Arms Race and International Political Economy (IPE)
The issues discussed above – the surge in the arms race, Europe's efforts to become more
independent in its defense capabilities, and the Thucydides Trap – are all related to the field of
International Political Economy (IPE). IPE is concerned with how economic and political factors
interact in the international system, and how this interaction shapes global politics. The surge in
arms sales and the increasing militarization of international relations have significant economic
implications. The defense industry is a major contributor to many countries' economies, and the
sale of arms can have significant impacts on global trade and investment. The arms race also has
implications for international security, as it can contribute to the escalation of wars and increase
the likelihood of war.

22
Emmanuel Macron, “REPLAY - Watch Emmanuel Macron's full speech presenting his vision of post-Brexit
Europe,” filmed September 26, 2017, Sorbonne University, FRANCE 24 English, 39:27.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRiXM8RiCOc.
23
“EU cooperation on security and defence,” European Council: Council of the European Union, 7 July 2023.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/defence-security/.
 Europe's efforts to become more independent in its defense capabilities are also
significant in terms of international political economy. The development of a European military-
industrial complex would have significant economic consequences, both in terms of the jobs and
industries that would be created and the potential impact on transatlantic trade relations. It would
also have implications for European integration, as the creation of a European army would
require greater coordination and cooperation among EU member states.
The Thucydides Trap is relevant to IPE because it highlights the role of power and
economic interests in shaping global politics. The rise of China as a global economic power has
significant implications for the existing international order and has the potential to shift
economic and political power dynamics in significant ways. The potential for war between China
and the US is rooted in economic competition and concerns about the distribution of power in the
global system. The issues we have discussed are all interconnected and reflect the complex
interplay between economics, politics, and security in the international system.

Conclusion
In conclusion, Ukraine war comes as gift and Israel war comes as bounty for US. The
surge in arms sales, Europe's efforts to become more independent in its defense capabilities. This
led to a destabilizing conventional war deterrence. As world move into a new and perilous period
of proliferation, many weapons have the potential to do more harm than good because of
advancements in technology, and those weapon systems are the most generally accessible. We
must consider issuing new security directives. Urgent attention is needed for both the aspects that
have historically ensured strategic stability: effective deterrence in all its manifestations and the
modernization of the functional framework for arms control. To negotiate, policymakers need to
be able to maneuver through an environment devoid of order. Moreover, the rise of China and
other non-Western powers further complicates the global order, adding to concerns about the
distribution of power and the potential for war.
Considering these challenges, policymakers must focus on the need for careful diplomacy
and international cooperation to prevent wars from escalating. The complex interplay between
economics, politics, and security in the international system requires a comprehensive approach
that covers the interests and concerns of all stakeholders. By working together, policymakers can
help to ensure a more stable and peaceful global order.
As far as Pakistan considers the stance of Pakistan on these issues would depend on a
variety of factors, including its national security concerns, regional and global alliances, and its
economic and political interests. Pakistan's stance on the surge in the arms race, Europe's efforts
to become more independent in its defense capabilities, and the Thucydides Trap would be
shaped by its unique circumstances and priorities.

Bibliography
Ahmadi, A. (2022). Backfire: how sanctions reshape the world against U.S. interests.
International affairs Volume 98, Issue 6, November 2022, 2164-2166.
budjeryn, m. (2021). revisiting ukraine's nuclear past will not help secure its future . lawfare.
Chestnut, M. (2023). US/NATO-Russian Strategic Stability and the War in Ukraine. New York:
CNA.
Cohen, A. (2016). The US and the Ukraine war: Assessing Washington's response. Survival, 27-
38.
Ellyatt, H. (2022. , March 8). Fears grow among Russia’s neighbors that Putin might not stop at
Ukraine. CNBC.
Hartung, W. D. (2000). The military-industrial complex revisited: How weapons makers are
shaping U.S. foreign and military policies. In M. H. (Eds.), Global focus: U.S. foreign
policy at the turn of the millennium (pp. 21-43). New York: St. Martin's Press.
Lucy Rodgers, D. G. (2023, April 22). Syria: The Story of the War,” , April 22, 2023. . BBC
News.
Masters, J. (2023, Feb). Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia,” Council on
Foreign Relations. council on foriegn relations.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. UK: w.w. Norton.
Nanda, P. (2023). War in Ukraine by far the most 'Hi-Tech' the world has ever seen ; Experts call
it a 'Field Day' for american firms. The Eurasion Times.
Pieter D. Wezeman, A. K. (2022). Trends in international arms transfers. Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute.
Pistilli, F. (2023, august). Rescue.org. Retrieved from www.rescue.org:
https://www.rescue.org/article/ukraine-war-what-are-impacts-world-today.
Plokhy, S. (2023). The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History. New York: W. W. Norton
& Company.
Poland raises alaram as Wagner forces move closer to border. (2023, July 29). NEWS
AGENCIES.
Rajan Menon, E. B. (2015). Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order.
London: MIT Press Limited.
Shifrinson, J. (2016). Threats, reassurance, and deterrence: Rethinking the security of America's
allies. International Security, 9-48.
Shin, C. K. (2023, September 19). South Korea urges Russia to halt military cooperation with
North Korea. REUTERS.
SIPRI. (2023, march 13). Surge in arms imports to Europe, while US dominance of the global
arms trade increases. Solna, sweden.
Sokolski, H. (2015). The Next Arms Race. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform.