Probabitity 709 oute Gertain and impossible events. An event is called certain or sure when all the possible Tone of yo! a4 experiment are favourable to the event, whereas an event is called impossible when the outcomes is favourable to the event. CLassicat DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY oeeaien joncent of probability happen to be the most primitive one and depends upon the notion of and Ly likely events. If for a random experiment there is n (finite) mutually exclusive, exhaustive Squally likely outcomes and r of them are favourable to an event A, then the probability of the Svent A is defined and denoted by P(A) = a Thus, when the possible outcomes are equally likely, then the ratio of the number of ways an ®vent A can occur to the total number of possible outcomes is the probability of the event A. Now, by definition, P(A) =~ must always lie between 0 and 1, since 0 Example. A bag contains 8 articles of which 3 are defective. If2 articles are taken at random, what is the probability that none of them is defective ? 2 articles can be selected out of 8 articles in’ 8Cy = 28 ways (this is without. any restriction), Now 2 non-defective articles can be chosen out of the group of non-defective articles i.e from 5 jn 5Cz = 10 ways. Number of favourable cases is 10, 10_ 5 28° 14 Example. Two unbiased dice are thrown. Find the probabilil js not less than 10. , = re are 6 x 6 = 36 possible outcomes. These are mutu: ket 7 here tam of the faces is not less than 10 means that «. reqd. probability = which are mutually exclusive, ns in between X and Y, Now this (3,7, (4,8), (6, 9), (6, 10), (7, 11), «. reqd. probability ity that the sum of the faces (1.C.W.A. Dec. 1987] ally exclusive, exhaustive and equal the sum may be 10,11 or 12. cE Te Scanned with CamScanner} i ‘Business Mathematics and Statistic, | 5) For sum 10, faces are (4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4), For sum 11, faces are 6, 6), (6, For sum 12, faces are (6, 6), In all there are 6 favourable cases- a 6 1 .. reqd. probability = ==. ; 36-6 mn the di Example. Two dice are thrown simultaneously and the numbers 01 ice are | multiplied together. Find the probability that the productis4 ny exclusive ang | two dive are thrown, there are 36 possible outcomes, which are maar Cc ss and equally likely (on the assumption that the dice are unbiased). Now the ate favourable i.e, (1, 4), (4, D, (2, 2). 1 .. reqd. probability = Exmaple. What is probability of getting 3 white bal containing 5 white and 4 black balls ? ‘Total number of balls in the box = 5 + 4 = 9. 1 3 balls can be drawn from 9 balls in °Cq=$ <7 — Ba ways 1s in a draw of 8 balls from a box .. Total number of possible cases = 84. ‘Total number of white balls in the box = 5. 5x 4xd y 3 white balls can be drawn from 5 white balls in C3 = gy -q=20-ways Number of cases favourable to the event of getting 3 white balls = 10. .. Probability of drawing 3 white balls = 2 5 3. Example. 5 men in a batch of 20 are graduates. If 3 men are picked up out of 20 at random, what is the probability that they are all graduates ? What is the probability of at least one graduate? 2 Ist part. 3 men can be selected out of 20 men in 7°C3 ways, so total number of possible is ?C5, Again 3 men to be graduates, these 3 men are to be selected out of 5 graduates, which can be done in °C. Now the total number of favourable cases is 5C3, 5 C: «. reqd. probability = y= 10 - Calculation :°C3 = Fi = 20.19.18 g ia 3 = 140. 2nd part : At least one graduate means it may be 1, 2 or 3 graduate: it wil ier to find ‘the complementary event i.e, none is graduate (or all’3 are. monrgredaote )-60 8 xia (non-graduate) can be selected out 15 (= 20-5) non-graduates in 45C5 ways. Total number of favourable cases is B¢s, =1- 455, 137 1140 228 ~ 298° Example. Three cards are drawn at probability that random from a pack of 52 cards. Find the @ They are King, Queen and Knave @ (iii) All of them are spades aa Fad of them are aces (v) They are not face cards. ‘0 are red and one black Scanned with CamScannerSE oe Probability m3 of 52 cards in "C3 wavs. larly one Queen in .d with each of Thi a Tee cards can be drawn at random from a well shuffled pack . i a, Cy an, fi kking can be drawn out of 4 kings (in a fall packo in “Cy ways. Sim! one Knave in 4C, ways. Since each way of drawing Bing can be associate way of drawi, ¥Y of drawing Queen and Knave, so number of favourable cases is 4o, x 404 x4C 40, x40, 4 «+ Feqd. probability = C121 C1 6. probability Be, aH (i Three aces‘can be drawn out of four aces in *C3 ways 4 ICs : * Fead. probability = 5 3 * ii) 3 spades can be drawn out of 13 spades in 18, ways. 13, «. req. probability = gy? Cy Wy 26 (iv) reqd. prob, = 2X BY : Cs () Number of cards other than face = 52-12 = 40, as there are 12 face cards. 40, C3 reqd. prob. = 5— ad. Ps To : Example. A bag contains 7 red balls and'§ white balls. 4 balls are drawn at random. What is the probability that them would be red and two white? (N.B.U. 20077" (i) all of them are red ; (ii) two of. 0 4 balls can be drawn out of 12 (= 7+ 5) balls in 12¢, ways, Total number of possible cases is 12 C4 = 495. G) For all the balls to be red in colour, these 4 red balls can be drawn out of 7 red balls in the bag in 7Cq ways. . 104 = 35 So total number of favourable cases = ity =< ee = reqd. probability = 495 = 99 (ii) 2 xed balls can be drawn out 7 red balls in "Cy ways, And 2 white balls can be drawn out of way of drawing red balls can be associated with each way of drawing it in ®Cy ways. Bach . vite oe 8 total number of favourable eases is om TC x5Cp = 21 x 10 = 210 ible cases = 17Cy = 495 in total number of possil Again 210_ 14 | vega. probability = 495 ~ 33° «drawn at random from a well-shuffled pack of 52 car example. 4 car is that the card is a face card, (ie king, queen eae Find the 2. Onecard can be drawn from 52 cards in 52 ways. So the total. ropabitity of cards is 5: ee {cap there ae 3 face- cards in eéch of 4 suits-a total of 12 face cards and one Scanned with CamScannera ~y Business Mathematics and Statistic, 74 “ : 1 shuffled and one cary face card from 12 face cards can be drawn in 12 ways. Since tis car kee pear. Hence, is drawn at random, each of the 52 cards is assumed equally like! 12 P(face-card) = B= 3 12_3 Odds in favour of face-card = gM = 38 = 2-12 40_ 10 and Odds against a face-card = 2 =12 . 40. 20, Example. In shifting a packet of 52 playing cards, 3 cards, are accidently dropped. Find the chance that the missing cards should be from different suits. There are 4 suits : club (c), spade (s), Hearts (H), Diamond (D) Possible cases Selections c Ss H 18¢, x 8G, x Bj = 13 x 13 x13 Cc s D 18¢, x18, x 80, =13 x 13 x 13 Git) s H D 186, x 8c, x Bc, = 13 x 13 x 13 (iv) Cc H D 186, x8¢, x $C, =13x 13x13 +. total numier of favourable cases = 4 (13 x 13 x 13) and total number of possible cases of 3 cards from 52 cards "°C, + reqd, probability -4.03%13 x13) _4(13x 13x13) x3%2_ 169 eral meee Aes 5g, SBR XBL x50 425 Example. Out of 4 gentlemen and 2 ladies a committee of three is formed. What is the Probability that the committee contains at least 1 lady ? Possible cases Selections (i) 1 lady + 2 gents cy x40, =2x os 2G x40, 1x44 (ii) 2 ladies + 1 gents +. total number favourable cases = 12 + 4 = 16 Again 3 members can be selected from 6 (= number possible cases = 20 i 16_4 . reqd. spat ead. probability = 36 = ¢ Alternatively : For the committee without. any lady. 3 gentlemen can be selected out of 4 gentlemen in 4C3 ways ine. 4 ways 4+2) members in C3 ways = 3 members can be selected out of 6 in 8Cg = of 6 mombers in C3 = S84 «99 ways ++ Probability that no lady is included in the committee ig ++ read, probability taking at least 1 lady=1——4_ 1 “20 Example. An urn contains 6 white and 4 time what is the probability that at kena ¢ euack marb; Favourable cases of selecting at least 2 = 40, x5C) + 405 x80, at least 2 will be black les, Jt 3 marbles are drawn ata black balls . 0 Scanned with CamScanner715 Probabitity And total numbers of possible cases = 1G, = ae) 3.2 " eal rebinple, Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. Find the Probability that they belong to © same suit Gi) different suits, (it) different denomisations 4 (There are 4 different auits in a pack of cards, Any one suit may be selected in Cy ways {ssin forthe same selected suit 2 cards ean bo slectad in 9Cq ways, Bach of selecting cards, so total number of favourable selection is 4C, x 3c, Again total number of possible cases = Cy 40, x13 * eqd. probability = SLX “C2 _4x19x12%2_ 4 Cc, -2x52x51 17 GO 2 different suits can be selected out of 4 suits in “Cp ways, From these 2 different suits one card each can be selected in "°C, x90, ways * total number of favourable cases = "Cy x 9C, x 8c.) and total number of possible cases = Cy 465 x A8G, 51 5 ‘lity —C2% COX Cy) _4x3x13%13x2 13 2 rad Prey ge ii) One card of any number can be selected from 52 cards in °C, ways, There are 4 cards of similar numbers, in 4 different suits in 52 cards. Leaving 4 cards having the number already selected, there are remaining 48 cards from which second card of different denomination can be selected in “8C, ways Total number of favourable cases is 526, x 8c, and total number of possible cases is 52x51 ey x8, _16 52x51 17° LIMITATIONS OF CLASSICAL DEFINITION HIMITATIONS OF CLASSICAL DEFINITION J; This definition is applicable when each outcome is equally ikely. Being based on the idea of cqually likely outsomes which means equally probable outeomes, the definition involver ios yok reasoning as the idea of probability has been used as a part of the definition of probekie’ qe makes the definition unsatisfactory. 2, Ibs not directly applicable when the total number of possible outcomes is infinite and also when it is not possible to enumerate alll the possible outcomes, 3. This definition is not applicable when the outcomes are not equally likely, Toremove these difulties a second definition hasbeen suggested as follows i roach. To understand the probability tl cory and as potential fc . iestion i ‘shelptale to understand the basic principles of Set Theory. ov Eractial ape Set. A set is a collection of items or objects having some common characteristic or characteristics SAMPLE SPACE SAMPLE SPACE ible outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space of the eee Bich outcome of the experiment is called an cles sample pone arent and Ey ono ‘The sample space is also called Universal Set or Event Space or Possibility 7 sample space. +. reqd. probability = Scanned with CamScannerProbability 719 P Oem E eB nAnB mia n@®) =P “ni “72® as) ‘The result can also towne ~PAnB, as Theorens eS ne aa A) + PB) ~ PLA and By, PUB Ug Pray . a any three events, then Proof.IfA, Band Care an nt OP ANB) -PANCH-P(BNO+PAOBAC) PAUuBue " ee events, then ) DUAL BIUCI=P AUB) PC) -PIAUB)ACI Since, by the distribu, OP ®-PMANB) PC) PIA SOU @ re) Now, PLAC cane POPerY of the sets, AUB) ACA NOU BAG) YBOON=PANC+PBAC -P[ANC) B00) . =P Since ALOnSrgaanneg | OOO PANBAO. Hence, P(A UBUC)=P (Ay + 7 PB)+P()-PANB) =P(ANC)-PBAC+PANBAC) 0) NoteP (AVB)=P (A) +P @)—PANB SPAUHSP PE, since P(ANB)=0. as Pee eaaality holds only when A and B are mutually exclusive, This inequality is kaown From (1), P(A) + P(B)2P (An ie. P(A) + P®B)—P(AnB)>0. Again, P(A UB)<1, ie. P(A) ¢ PB) 13° . of total probability ). An urn contains 13 balls Example. (On. generalised theo ee tity that a ball selected at random ir bell cith numbering from Ito ~ number that is @ multiple of 3 ieee sample points. If A be the event th: ‘Here, the sample space consists °) then A consists of 4 si ns at the ball selected is spa le 0 ‘that is a multip! ample points viz, 3, 6, 9, 12. a ball with number rE Scanned with CamScanner—-, ee Business Mathematics and Statisties Similarly, if B be the event that the ball selected is a ball with number that is a multiple of 4, then B consists of 3 sample points, viz, 4, 8, 12. : P@)= ‘The event AB comprises of only one sample point, ie., 12 which is a multiple of both 3 and 4, PAnB=+ 43 6 PAUB)=P(A)+PB)-PANBH T5433 - 5749 which is probability that the ball selected at random is a multiple of 3 or 4. Example. (Regarding Generalised theorem of total probability).” > Abag contains 20 tickets with markednumbers I to20, One ticket is drawn atrandom, Find the probability that it will be a multiple of (i) 2 or 5, (ii) 3 or 5. [Bombay Un. B. Com. 1978) (i) Here the sample space consists of 20 sample points. If A be the event that the ticket drawn at random is a multiple of 2, then A consists of the points 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20 i.e. 10 points, 10 “ PA=35: Similarly, B be the event that the ticket drawn is a number multiple of 6, then B consist of the numbers, 5, 10, 15, 20, i.e. 4 points so that P (B) = = ‘The event A > B comprises of the points 10, 20 i.e only 2 points so that P (An B) 10,4 2 12 PAUB)=P(A)+PB)-PANB)= 35 +35 gy= 55 = 06. (i Let A: event of points multiple of 3 i.e 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18 B: event of points multiple of 5 i.e 5, 10, 15, 20 So ANB: consists of only point 15 Now PW= 3 PO =H, PAnB= 2 P(AUB)=P(A)+PB)-P(AnB)=544_1_9 20* 20-20 20" Example. (On rule of addition). In drawing a card from well- shuffled pack, find the probability that the card drawn will be either a spade or a heart. The experiment of drawing a card from a well-shufiled pack consist of 52 equally likely outcomes. So the sample space consists of 52 sample points. Let A= the card is a spade), and B ={ the card is a heart}, -. Aconsists of 13 sample points, since there are 13 spade cards. P@ 3 Similarly, B also consists of 13 sample points. . 13 P®=5- _ ___d Scanned with CamScannerProbabitity % 721 The events A and B are mutually exclusive, since a spade and a heart cannot’ *PAUB)=P@y+Poy.= 38,181 Example. Fro 52° 52° 2 What is the choo St of 17 balls marked 1, 2, 3,..16, 17; one ball is draven at random. ance that its number is either a multiple of 3 or 7? [C.U. B.Com. (Hons.), 2000) LetA= it _ Let A= event of drawing a ball multiple of 3, then A consists of 3, 6, 9, 12, 15 ie. 5 sample Points. In all there are 17 sample points, 20 P(A) = Similarly AfB is the event of drawing a ball multiple of 7, he. B consists of 7, 14 ie, 2 sample points PB) =. Aand B events are mutually exclusive P(AUB)= oS, 221 3) = POA) + PB) = 35+ 79-77 1 Bence. A, B, Care three mutually exclusive and exhaustive events. Find P (B), if fPO)=5P A)=P B. Since A, B and C are mutually exclusive. So P(AUBUC)=P(A)+P®)+PO=1 or 2P B) +P (B)+3P (B)=1, by given condition or 6P (B)= 1 or PB) =i Example. Three horses are in a race. Ais twice as likely to win as B and B twice as likely as to win as C. What are the respective probabilities of winnning ? Let p = ptobability of the event that C wins i.e P (C) =p then probability that B will win = 2p or P(B) = 2p, again we will get P(A) =2xP(B)=22p=4p ‘Aseither A or Bor C will win the race we have P(AUBUO)=1 P(A) +P (B) +P (C)= 1 as mutally exclusive events. or, 1 or, 4p +2p+p=lorIp=1 on, p= , Example. Ifa pair of dice is thtown find the probability that the sum is neither 7 nor 11. [C.A. Nov. 1988] denotes the same space of throwing the dice then eS ( (Lt), (1,2). (8) (1p) (Ly 8) 2, 6, 2D, 2, 2.n(6, 8) (6, 6 n(S)=36.- ; Let A= event that the sum is 7, B= event that the sum is 11 so that A= (1, 6) (2, 53:4 (4,3), (8,2), (6, 1) ;B=( 6, 6), (6, 5)) -. n(A)=6,n(B)=2 n(A)_6_1, pe -28.-2- PA=18 6° n(S) 36° 18 +P @),as A and B are mutally exclusive events Now P(AVB) Pay rai +5 4679 8° 18 vet ‘lity =1-PAUB=!~9°9 .. reqd, probab both occur in the draw. - Scanned with CamScanner™ Business Mathematics and Statistics Example. (Of generalised theorem of total probability). The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2, and the probability that he twill not get an ? electric contract is & If the probability of getting at least one contract is 4 what is the probability that he will get both the contracts ? IN.B.U. B.Com. (Hons. 2012] Let A’be the event that the contractor will get a plumbing contract, then P(A) = 2 IB be the event that the contractor will get an electric contract, then P (B) = 8 (given). « P(@)=1-P®)=1- 99 Also given, P(A UB) =4, at least means one or more so we use AUB ~. by the addition rule, we have P(AUB)=P. (A) +P (B)-P(ANB). .4.2,4_ . =2,4.4 14 + PAOB. or PAnB)=3+$-4.14 -» Probability that the contractor will get both the contracts = Example. If A and B events with P A+B=%, P@= g and P(AB)=4, then find @ P(A) (ii) P(B) and P (AB). [C.U.B. Com (Hons.)’95] i Fre 2 @ P(A)=1-P@)=1-3=5 Gi) | P(A+B)=P(A)+P®)—P(AB) 3.1 a . = or, g=gtP®-F or, P@)=3 see ah rela (ii) P(AB)=1-P(AB)=1 474 Example. A and B are two events, not mutually exclusive, connected with a random experiment B. If P (A)=4, P (B)=2 and P (AUB) =5 find the vatues of the following probabilities. @PAnB), GP ANB), » Gil) P(AS UBS) [C.U.'1980] where ¢ stands for the complement, (®) We have, P (A UB) = P(A) + P (B)- PAB) since A and B are not mutually exclusive. 2,1,2_ =4,2_1_3 ie. g74t5-PANB) or, PAOB)=4+5-3=35 GP ACB)=PA-PAnB=}- 5-21 {by Cor. (4)] . ey = 317 PP AUB) = PU AOBY=1-PAnB)=1-F 3 by Cor. (5)1 Example. A class consisted of 36 men and 24 women. 28 of the men and 20 of the women received grade A in an exam. If'a student was chosen at random fron tin, fase what is the probability that these students either received grade A or is a male student ? ( Scanned with CamScannerProbability a Distribution of students : 60 (= 364 24) Total of grade A= 28 + 20= 48 ae Total no, of students = 60 , AMMENo. of male students obtaining P(AUM)= P(A) + Paw) - PAM) 48,36 28 _56_14 =G0*60 GO 60 15 grade A. 36 men (M) 24 women (W) 28 grade A 20 grade A Example. Probability that a teacher gives a surprise test is 4. Ifa student is absent in 2 days, what is the probability that he will miss at least one test ? Probability that test is not given in the 1st day of absence of the student = 1— ale oy Prob. that the test is not given in the 2nd day of absence = Prob. that the test is not given in those 2 days = 5 ¢ 5 % as independent events «Head. prob. that be misses at least one test = 1-28 = 22. Example. Tio events A and B have probabilities 0.25 and 0.50 respectively. The probability that both A.and B occur simultaneously is 0.14. Then find the probability that neither Anor B occurs. Neither A nor B means AUB. (or ANB) Now P(@UB)=1-P(AvB) 1-(P (A)+P@)-PANB)) =1-(0.25+0.50-0.14), putting given values. =1-0.61=0.39. Example. A cost accountant has applied to three companies, A. B and C for a job. It is known that his chances of receiving offers from A, B, C, Aand B both, Aand C both, and Band C both are 0.47, 0.29, 0.22, 0.08, 0.06 and 0.07 respectively. It is also known that his chances of getting offers from all the compaines is 0.03. What is the probability that he will Gi get at least one offer ?(ii) not get any offer from C ? (iii) not get any offer ? UL.C.W.A. June’94] (i) Here, P(A) = 0.47, PB) = 0.29, P(C)= 0.22, P (ANB) 0.08, P(AN C)= 0.06, PB. C= 0.07 P(A BAC) = 0.08 () P(AUBUO)=P(A)+ PB) +P (C)-PANB-P BO) -PCOA)+PANBaO) .47 + 0.29 + 0.22 - 0.08 - 0.07 - 0.06 + 0.03 = 0.80 ABnC)=PAUBYC) 1-P(AUBUC)=1-0.80= 0.20 ility. ability of occurrence of tw Compound Probability. The prol a: 0 or more events simult: js termed as compound probability. The usual notation for compound probability for faatoeate i tome ec ad events yw Ag PALMAR Ay : Mote, Compound probability is alS0 called Joint Probability. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY 4B be events in the sample space S of random experim proba Am occurrence ‘of event B, subject to the condition that event'A hss a GPA at P(A) > 0. The already occured, i Scanned with CamScanner> Business Mathematics and Statsg 728 iit mutually exclusi ‘Theorem. If two events A and B, having non-zer0 probabilities, are ive then orem. : both P(A | B) and P(B | A) are equal to zero. ei Since events A and Bare exclusive, we have, P(ANB)=P()=0. ; P(AAB)__0__ogince P (B)> 0 Now, PAL B= PRED = 5 since PC ) P(ANB)__0 9, since P(A) > 0- Similarly, PB | a ee Paytsinee SUCCESSIVE DRAWING, WITH OR WITHOUT REPLACEMENT PROBLEM OF i balls are drawn at rand ins 7 black and 5 white balls. Two rau i one onenthe er cod the probability that both balls drawn are black Ea ‘0 D tohen first ball drawn is not replaced before drawing the second and (ii an ia replaced before drawing the second b ; _ ” (i) The sample space consists of 12 sample points as there are ee 7 5 =12 balls, Let Az=(istballdrawnis black} and B= {2nd ball drawn is black} ‘The event A consists of 7 sample points as there are 7 black balls. | e Pana. Now since the first ball drawn is black and is not replaced the sample space reduces to 11 points \ only as there are only 6 black and 5 white balls left. The event B now consists of sample points as thee | are now 6 black balls. . a PBIA= = .. The probability that both the balls are drawn black is, | P(ANB)=P(A)PB| A= xfer 32" 11> 22° ii) Now the events A and B are independent, =i pe P= iP(B=G; and P(ANB)=P(A).P(B)=-2 x= 49 xte ; 127144 Example. A bag contains 7 red and 5 white balls, 2 balls are drawn at random without | replacement. Whatis the probability that the second ball is red, knowing that the first ball tere ‘Let A= (Ist ball is red } : B = ( 2nd ball is red }. ‘Total number of balls in the bag = 7 +5 = 12, | ' : 2 ; 7 oe pene o ways of drawing 2 balls from the bag and hence the sample space consi 2 ple puints. ‘The number of ways of drawing 2 red balls from ‘Tred balls is 1, . So, PANB)=se2 -$ Cy 12.11 22 P(A) = Probability that the 1st ball drawn is red = Now, P(ANB)=P(A).PB | ay " A Scanned with CamScannerr | Business Mathematics and Statisic, 730 =PGaByeP@.P@=(1-Py-[1-PB =(1-2).(1-1)4.2-% ayy 376s ability to live 35 y ity years m, Example. There are twomen aged. Band 36years. Piptabete ‘Find the probability the, is 0.67 for the 30 years old and 0.60 for the 36 years at least onie of these persons will be alive 35 years hence. ie, P(A) = 0.67 and B he Tet A be the event that man of 30 yrs. will live 35 yrs. meno the event that man of 36 yrs. will live 35 yrs more, so that ‘P(B) = 0.60 P (at least one person will alive 35 yrs. more) | = P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)-P ANB) | (A)+P@)-P(A). PB) as independent, .67 + 0.60 - 0.67 x 0.60= 1.27 - 0.402 = 0.868 [Aliter. Let A be the event that 30 years old person will die within 35 years and B be the event that 36 years old person will die within 35 years. es P(A) = 1-0.67 = 0.33 PB) =1-0.60=0.40. a Since the events A and B are independent, the probability that both persons will die within 35 years is given by: P (ANB) =P (Ay. PB) = 0.33 x 0.40 = 0.132 , «. the Probability that at least one of the persons will be alive 35 years hence is, 1 =P (ANB) = 1 - 0.132 = 0.868 he odds Example. The odds in favour in an event A are 2 : 5. TI ‘ainst another independent event B are 4: 3, What is the probability that at least one of the events will happen ? Odds in favour of A are a: b signifies P (A) = os ; odds against of B are a:b signifies P( B) = 2 P(A)=2,P @)=3. Wo arto find P(A or B)=P (AUB). Now P (AU B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(ANB) or P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)- P(A). P(B); as A, Bare independent 3_144+21-6 29 7 a ~ 49 ~ 49° xample. A card is.drawn from each i probability that at least one of them is an cise tall shesffeed pack:of cards. Find Let A: event that card drawn from Ist pack i ioe 2 $ a that card drawn from, 2nd pack in an ace and B are independent i it saving an to i pe ao RIT geno PE ite alt he ao =P(AUB)=P(A)+P(®)-P(AnB) , =P(A)+P(B)-P(A). PB) 24,4 4 4 101 “52°52. 52°52°13*13 13, A8+13-1_ 25 @ 169189 Example. IfP (A) =.50, PB) =.40, P(AuB) = 7 Kcomplement of A. State whether A.and B are anaes PAB) and P AuB wi Weknow P(AUB)=PA)+P®) -Panpy wi) y | Scanned with CamScannerProbability 731 sr = PVA) +P(B)-P) PLA/B) ‘ } sT.5 4 .4—(4).P(A/B) ii) | | | P@)+P@)-PAnB) iti -P(A)+P B)=[P@)—P(ANB) (see corr. 4, rule of addition) =1-P()+PAnB)=1-5+.2=07 74.54 4=02 P(A) + Aand Bare independent, es = Example. IfP (8) = PCB) = 4, P (a/b) =, find P (BIA) and P (B/A) We know P (AB) =P (B) P(A/B) = 4,4 $ Again P(ANB)=P(A)PB/Ayor, b=LP@/ayo,PO/N=5 — - Now P (AN B)=P (A) P(B/A) 3 or, P@®)-P(AnB)=P@PB/A) a 112 pam Paw 52 Bor,P B/A)=2 % 27127 3°? G/A, as P A)=1-PA) or, 79=3-PB/ Aor, BA=5 { Example. In an exminati iled i i in Mathematics and 12% in both statisties ee SEE ee erected arena Find the probability that . (@ a student has failed in statistics, ifit is known that he has failed in mathematics. (ii) a student has failed at least one of the subjects. (iii) a student has passed at least one of the subjects. P.6)=.30,P @)=.25,P SnM=.12 | Here S stands for statistics, M for Mathematics. ; = _p&AMyPahe @P @/=P CaM? = 42-048 (i) PE@UM=P © +P HM -P SOM) = 30+ .25-12= 55-12-47 } Gi) P (@UM=1-PEUM)=1-P EAM =1-.12=088 Example. One urn contains 2 white and 2 black balls, « second urn contains 2 white and f blak balls, () Ifone ball is chosen from each urn, what is the probability that they ans ogcame colour? (i) Ifan urn is selected at random and one ball is draton from it, what is the probability that it will bea white ball ? @ Let W, = event of drawing white ball from 1st urn B; 2 = event of drawing black ball from Ist urn Woe event of draveing white ball from 2nd urn By = event of drawing black ball fom 2nd urn va thovlls ofsame colour we should have either both balls white or both balls black . roan vy ao eB). Now the events are mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally ieei tule of addition we have, likely. Be nWy Jor By OBAI=PLWL AW) VE OBIE POW, OW) +P NB.) @ eee Scanned with CamScannerr : — fo Business Mathematics and Statistics Again events W, and W, aré independent and so also B, and By as drawing a ball from 1st urn does not affect the drawing a ball from the 2nd urn. 2 PW, 0 We) =P (W)). P(We); PB, 0 By) =P (By) - P (By) Hence from (i), the reqd. probability =P (WW). POV) +P@,).PB)=2-2+4- (ii) Let Ay = event of selecting-Ist urn, +" Ag= event of selecting 2nd urn Wy = event of drawing a white ball from 1st urn Wy S-event of drawing a white ball from 2nd urn Now we have (Ay © Wy) or (Ag © Wa) which are mutually exclusive, exhausitve or equally likely, | PL (Ay A Wy) of (Ag 0 Wo) = PLC AL Wy) U (n 9Wo) . | = P(A, VW, ) +P Ag 0 Wa)- A) Again by compound probability, P (Ay 0. Wy)= P (Aq) POW /Ay) 5 P (Ag > Wa) =P (Az). P (W2/Az) From (i) the “ead. probability =P (Ay) . P (Wy/Ay) +P (A). P (Wo/A2) Example. One purse contains 1 dollar and 3 rupees, a second purse containing 2 dollars and 4 rupees and a third purse contains 3 dollars and 1 rupee. If a coin is taken out of one of the purses selected at random find the chance that it is a dollar. [C.U. B.Com. (Hons.) 2000] Let Ay=eventofselecting Ist purse Ap =event of selecting 2nd purse Ag=event of selecting 3rd purse D, = event of drawing a dollar from “Ist purse Dp=event ofdrawing a dollar from 2nd purse Dy = event of drawing a dollar from 3rd purse We have (Ay © Dy) or (Ap 0 Dy) or (Ag 7 Dg), which are mutually exclusive, exhaustive or equally likely. P (A, 9 Dy) or (Ag 0 Dg) or (Ag 9 Ds)] =P (A, 9 Dy) U (Ag 9 Dy) U (Ag Ds) P(A 0Dy) +P (Ap Dy) + P (Ag Dg) = P (Aj). P (Dj/A)) + P(Ag) P (D2/Ag) + P (Ag) P (D3/Ag) -(2,4,1.2,1 8) 1(1,2,3) 1,16 16 4 (443-4 +4) (i$) Sie de°8 Example. Boxes I and II contain respectively 4 white, 3 red and 3 blue balls ; and 5 white, 4 red and.3 blue balls. If one ball is drawn at random from each box, what is the probability that both the balls are of the same colour ? Let Wy = event of drawing a white ball from box I Rj = event of drawing a red ball from box I By = event of drawing a blue ball from box I Wo = event of drawing a white ball from box II Scanned with CamScannerProbability 738 Re= event of, 7 drawing a = red ball fro . To get the balls on reming ablue ball et balls blue i.e. either Wyn W,s ou %® shall have either both balls white or both balls red or both exhaustive and equally tawy> 81 Ra) or By ABs), Now the events are mutually exclusive, Pwd ikely + by rule of addition we have 10 Wa) or (Ry 9 Ry ) or (By. By )] . SEO Wa) VCR) UB OBE] Again the oventa sg W2)*P (RL Ra) + PCB, Ba) of aball from 1st bag dno V2 27° independent and so also Ry, Rz are also By . Bz . as drawing ag does not effect the drawing a ball from 2iid bag. PW 9W2)=P(W1).P(We) | PCR OR,) = PR). PR), PB, By) =P B) PB +: read. probability = P (W,) /P( W,)+P(R,), P(R,)+P(B,).P (Bz) + -4.5, 43 920,12, 9 7 aL 10°12 10° 12* 10° 12 = 120 * 120 * 120 ~ 120 BAYE'S THEOREM (Let Ar, Ag ... A, ben mutually exclusive events whose union is the sample space S in a random experiment and let B be an arbitrary event in the sample space such that P (B) #0, then P(A). P(BIAL P(A, | By= > (BIA) | ; | y TPA).P(BIA)) is : Proof. By the law of conditional probability y or, P(A; B)=P(A) PB/A,) Similarly, P(BOA;)=P(B). P(A, |B) Now since P(A;AB)=P(BOA;), it follows that P(A;)P(B| Ai)=PB)- PA |B) P P(A | B= a oD) Since the events Ay, Ag, .-- An are mutually exclusive and P(B) #0 P(B)=P(A, OB) +P (Ag OB) + +P (An MB) =P(ApP® | Ad+P (Ay) P(B | Ag )+-.+P(An) PB | An) P(A). PBA) : «, From (1), &i | B)= FRY P@TAD PUP Ap +P Gp PIBTAD contains red and 5 black balls, urn-2 contains 4redand 8 black balls "fred and 6 black balls. One urn is chosen at random and a ball is Example. Urn-1 and turned contour ofthe all is black. What is the probability that it has been drawn from ae ‘Az (Ablack ball is drawn} . B, = (i-th um is chosen) ; i= 1,2,3 1 = Then PO@D=5 PBI Gr? OHS: TT Scanned with CamScannerm™ Business Mathematics and Statistics PAIB)=%.PAIBy= P (urn-3 is chosen/ball drawn is black) P (Bs). P(A | Bs) P®;| Aes PAL BS ®s | = PBpPAl By) + P (By) P(A] By)+P (By) PA | By) LGV BL 6 1 3°10°3' 12739 «6t Example. Suppose there is a chance for a newly constructed building to collapse whether the design is faulty or not. The chance that the design is faulty is 10%. The chance that the building collapses is 95% if the design is faulty, and otherwise it is 45%, It is seen that the building collapsed. What is the probability that it is due to faulty design? Let Ay =event that the design is fault; P(A) = 0.10 Aj= " ” ” not fault ; P(Ag) = 0.90 B=" " ” building collapses ; so that P(B/A)) = 0.95; P(B/Ag) = 0.45 P (design is faillt / building collapses) 2 9 2,2 9*9 = P(Ay/B)= PA) PB/Ay), -10x.95 FE) = BEA) PCB/Ay) + P(Ag) P(B/Ag) 10 X.95 + 90x 45 _ 095 095 _ 005 + 405 = 5007919 Example. A factory has two machines. The empirical evidence has established that machines I and II produce 30% and 70% of the output respectively. It has also been established that 5% and 1% of the output produced by these machines respectively was defective. A defective item is drawn at random. What is the probability that the defective item was produced by machine I or II ? Let A; = event that a part selected at random from machine I Aye ho” om > oa Be” 7» > » Gs dofective, Now P(Ay)=.30, P(Ag)=.70, P(B/A)=.05, P(B/A)=0.1 P(Ay) PB/A PAYB)= BaD PBA) + =) POA) ~ 30x a a x01 ~ 9-682. P(Ag) P(B/Ag) P(Ay) P(B/Ay) + P(Ay) P(B/Ag) — (44 /B) + P(Ap/B), due to mutually exclausive 682 + 0.318 = 1.0. Example. A class consists of 50 students out of which the number of girl students is 10. In the class 2 girls and 5 boys are rank holders in the previous examination. Ifa student is selected at random from the class and is found to have rank holder, what is the probability that the student selected is a girl. How is this probability affected if the distribution of boys and girls in the whole class is unknown. Let A; event that the student isa girl Ag event that the student isa boy P(Ap/B) = .. reqd. prob Scanned with CamScanner735 1 5 11 4 BST ES 1 Second 5*8 jecond part. Let number of girl be x, then number of boys =50-x. so that Bike, ~50—x PAD=Fg5P (On) = SESE POA) =2:P B/Ay= eo 5 = aap = Fie the probability is not affected. x 50-x Random Variable. A variable whose value is a numerical quantity determined by the outcome of a random experiment is called a random variable. Example. The experiment of tossing 3 coins has 8 (= 2°) possible outcomes HHH, HHT, THH, HTH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT but these outcomes are not numerical. We may, however, associate the numbers 0, 1, 2, 3 corresponding to the four possibilities regarding the number of heads that appear in 3 coins. If we now let the variable x represent the number of heads observed in the experiment, then the possible values that x can have 0, 1, 2, 3. Since the value of variable x is a number determined by the outcomes of an experiment, it is a random variable. Random variables are of two types diserete and continuous. Discrete Random Variable. If a random variable can assume only the values that can be counted, is called a discrete random variable. For instance, the number of defective items in a lot of production, number of failures in a text ete. Continuous Random Variable. A random variable is continuous if it can assume any value within a given range. It has infinite possible value. For instance, weight of a person, height of a boy ete. Obviously to each value of the random variable there corresponds a definite probability and using this a probability distribution is defined. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PROBABILITY DISTREN ition. Probability distribution is a systen etinaable ‘and their corresponding probabilities. xystematic arrangement of the possible values of a cael Lali in tossing a balanced dice once, ifthe variable x represents the number of spots that example, . . ace L appears uppermost ittakes on the value 1 2, 8 eaiatead —— § for each, Hence 14. distribution table associated with tossing a ce dice Probability-distribuno! 1 2 3 4 5 6 No of spots (*) i do oiloao. 1 Probability 6 CR rea 6 sg another example of probabil ity-distrtion table associated with tossing a fir con thrice re is 1 . kn of heads (x): probability + \ rn iil 3 8 cole oolm ano Scanned with CamScannera Probability Theory. If mr i X and y (aX+ bY) =a? var (K) 452 vary inde, . that var rar pendent dc bles, prove var (aX + bY) = EX + by? ©, whered and bare constante [N.B. 20061] = Eo? X? + 2abxy 4. 52y2, =a +0°Y) ~ Ip = WER) + 20h ECKY) + 42 Bas nf py ott ores 2 aye 2 2 2&3. ° ER)20b + 2ab EK) ECy) + 6? (ECY)I"I, by prop. 2 RaQ? a Ra E(Y*)-c? (00/2 2ab BOK) BCH) + 6 LEC)? +b° ER ~p2 ? TEC) ~ PEG!) + 62 2) 8 tECoP B CON] + 6? (BY) (EY) . =a" var (X) +b? var (Y), Example. Find E example in. Drobability desta of the following probability distribution (refer 2nd No. of heads (x) Probability 1 | Now E(x)= Exp;=0. 8 = 04345, m) Beds 0.d+ dest Se Le BB Now var (x)= E (2%) -m?=3 - (1.5)? =3-2.25=0.75 | Example. Find mathematical expectation of the number of points if a balanced dice is | thrown. Find also s.d. | Here the random variable takes the values 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 having respective probabilities 3 in each case. Coa peer ben ged. ged gro gr Og 1 6(@+1)_7 a hasas3 +4505 Gag =m) 1 6.(6+1) @6+0)_1 Bod= Eaten ase) =G- 6 ~e 9149 _182-147 _ 35 e447 BR var) = B(2)-m 35, = ear = VE = oT = 1.708 sd. = cal expectation of receiving a tail when abalanced coin Example. Find the mathemati istossed twice. aro (HH, (H,1, (1, HD, (T, 1). So we find that there i For tossing a coin twice & outa ting 1 tai, and 1 way of gotting 2 tails. ereis L way of getting 0 oe ae = 25 Plone tail) = .5x.5+.5x.5=.50 ino tail) = Scanned with CamScanneri | ms Business Mathematics and Statistics If, however, the variable x represents the number of tails it takes the value 0, 1 and 2 having respective probabilities .25, .50 and 25. E()=0x.254+1x.54+2x. 25-1, Example. A man is to play a game as follows : In three tosses ofa balanced coin, he will get a reward of Rs. 20,000, Rs. 10,000, Rs. 5,000 and no reward, ifhe gets three tails, two tails, one tail and no tail respectively. The entrance fee for the contest is Rs. 6,000, Will you play the game? The man will like to play the game ifhe receives more than Rs. 6,000 (the entrance fee) No. of tails | Pay off Go) Probability (p) Expected value p (x) 0 0 xX, 9 1 5,000 3(.5x.5x5 1875 2 10,000 3(5x.5x5, 3750 3 20,000 5x5 x5 = 125 2500 8125 His expected return is Rs. 8,125 and since this expected return is more than Rs. 6,000, the entrance fee, he will play the game. Note. By expected retum we mean if he plays long enough then on an average he may get Rs. 8125. Example. A and B toss in turn an ordinary dice for a prize of Rs. 55. The first to toss a six wins. If A has the first throw what is its expectation ? Ej, By denote the events of A and B first throw a six. . (@) Acan throw in a six in the following mutually exclusive cases. @E, happens (ii) E] VEZAE, (iii) By] DE, 0 By AE, 9 Ey happens and so on, P=P (i)+P Gi)+P (ii)+..., =P E,+P Ej) PG). P Ey+P Ey) P Ey) P Ej) P By) PE) +... 4 Sy 1s) 1 (8) (8) 4 i Expectation of A= xp = 85 x =Rs. 30. Example. A box contains 4 white and 6 red balls, If2 balls be drawn at random, then find the mathematical expectation of the number ofred balls. [C.U.B.Com. (Hons) °95) Let x represents number of red balls drawn, Now x may be 0, 1, 2. i.e. Scanned with CamScanner0 OO —— Probability 739 Example. A box . contai; i oral Irane teeny 2, "88 tickets. 3 of the tickets carry a prize of Rs. 5 gaat ) et is draw; Gi) If too ti eat _ i Mate kets artim oa ic ee : a . value of t! tickets of Rs. 2 be black, “"" OF tickets of prize ls. 6 be white and that of remaining (i) One ticket drawn ma be whit r Colour Prize () mes or black, mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely. White robability (p) px 5 3 15 Black a a B Expected a 15 a 8 + Expected value = ¥ pr = 45, 10" 25 Gi) Two tickets draw: 8 *g Wg =e 3.198 ames sah be both white, both black or one white and one black. ue (x) Probability (p) pe 2 white 10 30 28 2 black 4 40 . 28 1 white and 1 black 7 105, 28 .. Expected value == px= SUMMARY - 1. For two mutually exclusive events Aand B P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B) | . ‘2. For.three mutually exclusive events, A, B and C P(AUBUC)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C) 3, For two non-mutually events A and B P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)-P(AMB) 4, For three non-mutually events A, Band C Foe NON? AMP @)+P(CVPANBYP BAO -PEA)SPCANB OC) 5. For two events A and B PANB)=P(A)P(B/A)=P (B) PMB) 6. For two independent events Aand B P(AnB)=P(A)- PCB): 7. For three indepen’ © pCAnBno)=P(A)- 8, For any event A, P @= 1-P(A). 9, FortwoeventsAandY | 5), pip) = PANB)+P(AnB) PA= PANB)AEAC 10. For two event A ant / . p(AvB) PaaB=1-PAnB) AB p(AuB)=1-P(AUB) P(AnB) Scanned with CamScannera a Business Mathematics and Statistics 740 11. Two events A and B will be mutually exclusive if P(A AB) =0. | 12. Two events A and B will be mutually exhaustive if P (A UB 7 13. Two events A and B will be equally likely if P( A) = P(B). 14. B@)=Dp;%; 15. Var (x)= E @*)-( E () P= BQ) — m? m= E(x) MISCELLANEOUS EXAMPLES a 1. A bag contains 8 red balls and 5 white balls. Two successive draws of 3 balls are ing will gi hit made without replacement. Find the probability that the first drawing will give 3 white balls and the second 3 red balls. . 3a ‘Total number of balls = 8 + 5 = 13. wn 3 balls can be drawn from 13 balls in !9C3 = 286 ways. So, the sample space consists of 286 sample points. a Let Three balls drawn in 1st drawing are white } and B=( Three balls drawn in 2nd drawing are red ). , 25 ‘The event A consists of °C = 10 sample points, as 3 while ball can be drawn out of 5 white balls in °C. P@y=2%, Now, since the 3 white balls drawn in the 1st drawing are not replaced, the sample space now reduces to 1°C; = 120 sample points, as there are now only 8 red and 2 white balls left and 3 balls can be drawn from 10 balls in !°C3 ways. . . ‘Theevent Bconsists of °C = 56 sample points, as 3red balls can be drawn from 8 red ballls in®C ways, P@/A)= & - By theorem of compound probability, . . = 20, 567 P(ANB)=P(A).P(B/A)=355x 120 = 429 2.A bag contains 8 red balls and 5 white balls. Two successive drawings of 3 balls are made with replacement. Find the probability that the first drawing will give 3 white balls and second 3 red balls, . : Total number of balls = 8 + 5 = 13 Out of the 13 balls, 3 balls can be drawn in 15C, = 286 ways, So, the sample space consists of 286 sample points, Let A= (Three balls drawn in first drawing are white} and B= (Three balls drawn in second drawing are red) Now, out of 5 white balls, 3 can be drawn in 5Cq = 10 ways + The event A consists of 10 sample points and hence P(A) = aoa 286 Since $ white balls drawn in the first draw: vents A and B are independent lependent ing are replaced the e and the event B consists of °C, = . 56 sample points. _ 56 PB) 366 + By the multiplication rule, P(A B)=P (A) P(B)- 20. 56 140 286 “ 286 ~ 20449" rer a Scanned with CamScanneri 0b ssumed part will not be defen factire of part B. Caleulate the Prove ogg.) 2015] LetA‘end ina not be defective, o 5 ively. Then, note the events that part A and part B ofthe article are defeetive respectively. P(A)y=—2 5 (A) = 795 and P(B)= 5, oo 100 ‘The probability that part A will not’ be defective is ~P(aye1-2_ OL P= 1-305" T00 the probability that the part B will not be defective is P@)=1-P@-1-5_ % 100 ~ 100 _ ght two events A and B are independent and consequently the two complementary events A and B are independ ‘ont. Hence by the multiplication rule of the probability. 91 95 _ 8645 100° 100 ~ 10000 4. The probability that A can solve a problem in Business Statistics is 3% that B can solve itis, that C ean solve it is the problem will be solved, P@= Similarly, P(ANB)=P(A). PCB = 0.8645. Af they all try independently, find the probability that P(A)=$,P(B)=2 and P(c)=8 The problem will be solved if eit PAULBUC EP (A) + PB) =P(A)+P(B)+P()-P ither A or B or C solves it. Hence, by addition rule of probability. }+P (C)-P (An B)-P(BAC)-P(CAA)+P(ANBOC) (A). P(B)-P BP. (CP (C). P(AHP (A).P (B).P (C) (events A, B and C are independent) Alternative Method We have, P(AUBUC)=1-P (ANB nC)=1-P@).P@). © (yA, B, C are independent events, so also A, B, ©) = 1- (1-P(A)[1-P BI [1-PO]) (a3 9) 5.A bag contains 5 red and 4 black balls, A ball is drawn at random put into another bag which contains 3 red and 7 black balls. A ball is from the second bag. What is the probability that it is red? Let Asevent of transferring a red ball from first bag. B = event of transferring a black ball from first bag. C= event of drawing a red ball from second bag. ‘To draw a red ball from the second bag we should have either aed ball is transferred from the first bag to the second bag and a red ball is draw, m from it yor Ui) a lack ball is transferred from the frst bag tothe second bag and aed bal is drawn fice from the bag and drawn randomly Scanned with CamScanner | | | ' iBusiness Mathematics and Static, (ANC) or BOC). ‘That is, we should have either (A and C) or (B and C), ie, eithe ‘he required probability i Now, since the events A’ C and BC are iat exclusive, P{(ANC) or BAC) I=P((ANC) v (BO sae gyn (pac)=PCAIP (C/A) * PCB) FCG) 5. pote. RorB Now, PW 50q P@)=-544°9 PAO’ P(C/A)= +f (since a red ball is transferred [= 5} [a9] P(C/B)=& from Ist bag to 2nd bag) (Since a black ball is transferred from Ast bag to 2nd bag). 32 4 Requited Probability =5. +5. ae 6A bag contains 10 white and 3 black balls. Two balls ave drawn at random from this bog and put into another bag that contains 3 thie and 5 black balls. One ball aoe ong on ohd bays. What is the probability that it is white "To draw a white ball from 2nd bag, we will have either : , (i) Ay - event of transferring 2 white balls from Ist to 2nd bag, and then a white ball is drawn from it. (ii) Ay =eventof transferring 2 black balls from 1st to 2nd bag, and hence a white ball is dravn from it ii) Ag ~eventof transferring 1 white and 1 black balls from 1st to 2nd bag and then one white ball is drawn from it. (jv) Aq= event of drawing a white ball from 2nd bag. Now we should have (Ay 0 Ag) oF, (Ag Ad) oF (Ag Ay), which are mutually exclusive, and required probability is PUA, AgU Ag 9A) VAR AD) =P (ALO Ag +P (An OAD) + PAS NAD =P (Ay) P (Ag/Ay) + P(Ag) P (Ag/Az) + P (Ag) P (Ag/Ag) AD) 10, 5 . Co_ 109 15 Co 36, Again P (Ay) =7g = a5 sp = 9g P AWAD = T= 5 _ oz 1 = 3, 713.127 26°? AW/AD “To, = 3»? A) “Tag = 26 3, 10x3_ 5 4 P AWA) T9605 To) PAs) = 156, = 7g P AW/As) = 7 1 =2 From (i), reqd. probability = 32 1,1,3 5 2 59 262" 26" 10" 13 *5 ~ i30 7.Anurn contains 6 red and4 black b . Han tftne One ball te drat fram each cnc eg np rer Conterina 8 red: and Tha same colour, and (ii) both are of different colours, eee Gaara Let Ry =( Ball drawn from Ist urn is red } : By = ( Ball drawn from Ist urn is black }, Ry = ( Ball drawn from 2nd urn is red } 5R aR By = ( Ball drawn from 2nd urn is black } 48 B Ist part. When both the balls are of same colour. Scanned with CamScanner