J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141
DOI 10.1007/s10933-008-9218-2
ORIGINAL PAPER
Paleohydrology of Lake Nhaucati (southern Mozambique),
*400 AD to present
Anneli Ekblom Æ Bjørg Stabell
Received: 8 June 2007 / Accepted: 24 April 2008 / Published online: 21 May 2008
Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008
Abstract This paper investigates the correlations
between lake level change, rainfall variability and
general atmospheric forcing in southern Africa. The
analysis of fossil diatom assemblages in a sediment
sequence from the small, rain-fed Lake Nhaucati,
southern Mozambique, is presented and discussed in
relation to regional palaeoclimate data. The accumu-
lation of organic sediments in Lake Nhaucati began
1,600 years ago when the lake level was rising.
Lithology and pollen suggest a low stand at 800 AD,
which correlates with other climate proxies from the
summer rainfall region of southern Africa. The
diatom assemblage suggests that lake levels were
high between 900 and 1300 AD, with shorter low
stands at c.1100 and 1200 AD. The period after
1400 AD was marked by a slow rate of accumulation
and consequently a low temporal resolution. The
correlation with other climate proxies in the summer
rainfall region, written sources, and pollen data
suggests repeated droughts corresponding to the
Little Ice Age, though the driest periods may have
caused complete desiccation of the lake. Higher lake
A. Ekblom (&)
Long Term Ecology Laboratory, Oxford University
Centre for the Environment, Dyson Perrins, Building,
5 South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
e-mail: anneli.ekblom@eci.ox.ac.uk
B. Stabell
Department of Geoscience, University of Oslo,
P.O. Box 1047, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
levels are suggested after 1800 AD, though written
sources suggest droughts in the beginning of the
twentieth century. The analysis shows a good corre-
lation with palaeoclimate data from the summer
rainfall region and confirms the presence of an anti-
phase relationship between the summer rainfall
region of southern Africa and the bi-modal rainfall
region of east tropical Africa. It also supports the
general hypothesis that variation in the intensity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone is the main
agent modulating rainfall over southern and eastern
Africa on centennial timescales.
Keywords Diatom analysis
Lake level change

Climate change
Rainfall variability

Climatic forcing
Introduction
Climate in southern Africa is marked by high
temporal and interregional variability, and the last
2,000 years have seen considerable variation in
temperatures and rainfall regimes in southern Africa.
Understanding of these changes is limited, due to the
lack of palaeoclimate records from the region,
particularly for the late Holocene. While lake level
studies in equatorial Africa (Verschuren et al. 2000)
and d18O data from a speleothem in northern South
Africa (Holmgren et al. 1999) have provided high-
resolution palaeoclimate records and clues to the
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1128 J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141

understanding of the teleconnections between these
areas (Tyson et al. 2001; Stager et al. 2005), there are
few data points in between these regions that confirm
the persistence of such teleconnections and the
inferred atmospheric forcing behind them.
This paper provides a history of rainfall variability
from the coastal lowlands of southern Mozambique,
spanning the last 1,600 years. The diatom assemblage
of a sediment core from Lake Nhaucati, situated in
the Vilankulos region, is analysed and compared to
the pollen assemblages from the same core, with the
aim of constructing a local lake level history that can
be tested against regional palaeoclimate data.
Mozambique, located in the summer rainfall region,
is an important region for understanding the influence
of the ITCZ during the late Holocene, and this study
provides the first palaeoclimate data point for the
whole of Mozambique.
but below average rainfall in the winter rainfall areas
reliant on the circumpolar westerlies. It would also
result in synchronous shifts in the positions of the
South Atlantic and the Indian Ocean Anticyclones, the
latter of which causes dry conditions over the summer
rainfall region of southern Africa during winters
(Tyson 1999; Tyson and Preston Whyte 2000).
The correlation in east tropical Africa between
warmer temperatures and less rainfall, and between
colder temperatures and more rainfall is supported by
various lake level studies, e.g. Lake Victoria (Stager
et al. 2005) and Lake Naivasha (Verschuren et al.
2000, see also reviews in Verschuren 2001 and
Russel et al. 2007).
There are few palaeoclimate proxies available
from the summer rainfall region of southern Africa
that cover the last 2,000 years (Tyson and Lindesay

Rainfall variability in Southern and Eastern

Africa during the Late Holocene—a review

During the twentieth century the pattern of rainfall

between the summer rainfall region of southern Africa
and the bi-modal rainfall region of eastern Africa,
situated south and north of the latitude 15°S, respec-
tively, has been opposite (Tyson 1999; Nicholson
2000) (Fig. 1). (Summer here refers to the southern
hemisphere high phase). This is largely connected
with the latitudinal displacements of the ITCZ (Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone) over the continent and
the associated atmospheric forcing (see discussion in
Nicholson 2000; Bryson and Bryson 1997). Based on
this relationship, it is hypothesised that during periods
of anomalously warmer global temperatures, the
ITCZ would be strengthened in southern and northern
Africa, resulting in more rainfall in the summer
rainfall region, and less rainfall in the bi-modal
rainfall region of eastern Africa. During periods of
anomalously colder temperatures, such as the LIA
(Little Ice Age), the ITCZ would contract towards the
equator bringing more rainfall to the bi-modal rainfall
region, with a corresponding decrease in rainfall in the
summer rainfall region (Tyson 1999; Stager et al.
2005). Changes in the westerlies in both southern and
northern Africa are synchronous with the movements
of the ITCZ. Accordingly, in the case of southern
Africa, a strengthening of the ITCZ would result in Fig. 1 Location of Lake Nhaucati and other localities referred
above average rainfall in the summer rainfall region, to in the paper

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J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141
1992; Partridge et al. 1990; Tyson 1999). The d18O
and d13C isotopic sequence of the Cold Air Cave
speleothem, Mapakansgat Valley, Transvaal provided
the first high-resolution climate proxy for the late
Holocene from the region (Holmgren et al. 1999).
High values of d18O are associated with tropical, low-
latitude, summer rainfall, emanating from ITCZ
disturbances. Lower values of d18O are ascribed to
a higher influence of convective rains from the d18O-
depleted upper troposphere, associated with the
circumpolar westerlies. Increased influence of the
circumpolar westerlies, in turn, is associated with
colder conditions and below average annual rainfall.
The d13C signal, which is linked primarily to
vegetation, concurs with the d18O, with higher values
linked to good grass cover and optimal summer
rainfall, and lower values associated with less grass
cover and drier conditions (Holmgren et al. 2003).
The d18O and d13C sequence of Mapakansgat Valley
suggests warmer and wetter conditions prevailed
900–1300 AD, while depleted isotopic values suggest
cold and dry conditions occurred 1300–1800 AD.
These results are in accordance with other data from
the summer rainfall region, and with the anti-phase
responses in the winter rainfall region of southern
Africa, thus confirming the hypothesis of the general
model of circulation (Holmgren et al. 1999; Tyson
1999; Tyson et al. 2000, 2001).
Comparisons between lake level changes of Lake
Naivasha (Verschuren et al. 2000) and the Maka-
pansgat data (Holmgren et al. 1999) also confirm the
existence of an anti-phase rainfall relationship
between east tropical Africa and the summer rainfall
region of southern Africa throughout the last millen-
nia (Tyson et al. 2001, 2002). However, records from
lakes in western Uganda (Russel and Johnson 2005,
2007), Lake Tanganyika (Alin and Cohen 2003),
Lake Malawi, (Johnson et al. 2001; Brown and
Johnson 2005) and Empakai crater (Ryner 2007)
show generally drier conditions during most of the
LIA. This is not in accordance with the hypothesis of
a contraction of the ITCZ during this period, and
suggests strong influences from other atmospheric
systems during the LIA, particularly in the western
part of East Africa (Russel et al. 2007).
The understanding of the forcing mechanisms
behind this interregional variability is restricted due
to the general lack of long time series data with high
resolution. Between latitude 22° and 10°S, an area
1129
where shifts in the position of the ITCZ are expected
to have caused anomalies in rainfall patterns, there
are few palaeoclimate proxies available. Neither the
sequence from the strategically located Lake Chilwa
(Crossley et al. 1984), nor that from Lake Massoko
(Barker et al. 2000) have sufficiently high temporal
resolution over the last millennia to enable this issue
to be addressed. The lake Nhaucati sequence, there-
fore, is an important clue in understanding rainfall
variability over the last two millennia, and provides a
comparison to the available palaeoclimate data in the
region.
Lake Nhaucati and its surroundings
Lake Nhaucati, situated in the Chibuene area 5 km
south of the town Vilankulos, receives the majority of
its rainfall during summers (i.e. December–February)
as the result of the seasonal southward movement of
the ITCZ. During the rest of the year, the semi-
stationary South Indian Anticyclone usually causes
dry conditions in southern Mozambique (Tyson and
Preston-Whyte 2000).
The whole Vilankulos region is marked by the
presence of numerous lakes, all with a characteristic
circular or semicircular shape. The origin of the lakes
in the Vilankulos region is revealed by their charac-
teristic shapes. The dunal morphology is preserved in
the lake bathymetry with a characteristic steep north-
west side, corresponding to the leeward side of a
dune, and a gentle slope in the south-east side,
representing the windward side of a dune. The dunal
system of the Vilankulos district forms an indepen-
dent aquifer that is fed mainly by rainfall (Coetsee
and Hartley 2001). As these lakes have no surface
outlets, lake levels are directly associated with
changes in groundwater levels; hence they provide
good records of rainfall variability via lake level
change. Response times are relatively quick and
estimations from other areas with similar conditions
suggest that annual rainfall accounts for 13–33% of
the recharge of groundwater (Coetsee and Hartley
2001). During the time of coring, September 2000,
lake levels were at least one meter above usual levels
due to extremely high summer rainfall, and villagers
reported that many of the lakes currently present had
dried out in the 1970s.
Lake Nhaucati is small, with a maximum diameter
of 750 m, and is located 1.5 km from the sea, and
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about 30 m above sea level (Fig. 2). The bathymetry
of this shallow lake is characteristic of the region.
The lake is divided into two deeper basins, with a
maximum depth of 9 m. During extreme low stands
this lake may thus have been divided into two small
lake basins (Fig. 3). The characteristic shape of the
basin would also have affected the distribution of
vegetation. During phases with moderate and high
lake levels, the flat lowlands on the southern and
eastern sides of the lake would have been inundated,
creating favourable conditions for wet grasslands and
marshy areas where sedges and Phragmites are
favoured. The occurrence of such wet grasslands
and marshy areas can be observed to the south and
east of the lake today.
Vegetation in the near vicinities of Lake Nhaucati
is dominated by Julbernardia globiflora together with
Strychnos spinosa. No representatives of forest or
riverine gallery vegetation can be seen in the area
today. The herbaceous vegetation is represented
mainly by Eragrostis ciliaris, Panicum maximum,
Cyperus spp., Cenchrus incertus and Digitaria spp.
The lake is surrounded by cultivated fields and is
frequently used by residents of the Chibuene village
as a source of freshwater.
Methods
Coring and lithology
Coring took place in the year 2000 with the help of
divers operating the coring and augering equipment
from the bottom of the lake. Augerings were made
into surface sediments in north-south and east-west
transects, 20–50 m apart. This allowed for the
Fig. 2 Detail of the
Chibuene area and Lake
Nhaucati
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J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141
schematic construction of the bathymetry (Fig. 3).
Sediment cores were obtained using a Russian corer
(Aaby and Digerfeldt 1986). The analysed core Nhau
Bp IV was retrieved from the deepest part of Lake
Nhaucati. The lithology of the Nhaucati core is
relatively homogenous and dominated by a dark grey
gyttja, interrupted at 204 cm depth by a 6-cm layer of
compacted rootlets. Though the mineral magnetic
properties were analysed, the mineral magnetic
proportion of the sediment was too small to elucidate
different phases of sediment accumulation (Fig. 7).
Chronology
The chronology is based on an age/depth model
(Fig. 4) constructed using the PozCal programme
(Goslar et al. 2005). The model is based on the
probability distributions of individual 14C AMS dates
calibrated using the southern hemisphere calibration
curve (McCormack et al. 2004). The age/depth model
is represented by a curve passing through/close to the
probability maxima.
The majority of dates were obtained from bulk
sediments. In the base of the core both bulk sediments
and macrofossil charcoal were dated. The two
samples gave very similar calibrated ages (charcoal,
430–660 and bulk sediment 430–650 (cal. 2 sigma)).
The absence of reservoir effects in the gyttja from the
base of the core was assumed for the whole sequence.
This is supported by similar dates for charcoal and
bulk sediment samples in a core from Lake Xiroche,
situated 1 km southeast of Lake Nhaucati (Fig. 2).
The whole sequence is marked by an irregular rate of
accumulation. Very rapid accumulation is shown
between 1000 and 1200 AD. Rapid accumulation of
sediments at this time is also found at Lake Xiroche.
J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141 1131

Fig. 3 Schematic
representation of the
East-West stratigraphy and
bathymetry of Lake
Nhaucati, with the location
of core Nhau BP IV. Note
that the length axis is
relative to against the depth
axis. Grey vertical lines
mark additional core
locations

Analysis was carried out at 10009 magnification.

Fig. 4 Age–depth curve for BP Nhau IV, Lake Nhaucati, with
the probability distributions of the individual dates (68%
confidence marked by white bars and 95% confidence marked
by black bars). The age–depth model is shown by a thick
smooth line
This is probably the result of the high organic
production in the lake. The upper 40 cm of the core
has a very low temporal resolution, as is the case in
the Lake Xiroche sequence. We argue that this
apparent slow accumulation after 1200 AD is due to
gaps in the sequence as a consequence of low lake
stands (see below).
Between 200 and 500 diatom valves were identified
in each sample. The floras produced by Krammer and
Lange-Bertalot (1986, 1988, 1991a, b), Hustedt
(1930) and Cleve-Euler (1951, 1952, 1953a, b,
1955) were used for identification. The discussion
on the ecology of the diatoms is based on these
references together with de Wolf (1982) and Chol-
noky (1968).
In the diagram (Fig. 5) species within the genera
Cymbella, Eunotia, Gomphonema, Navicula, Nitzs-
chia and Pinnularia, have been grouped together as
the individual species had very low percentages. The
distribution of planktonic and benthic species is
interpreted as being primarily related to changes in
lake level. During phases of increased water volume
it is expected that benthic/epiphytic species are less
favoured (Bøe and Stabell 2001). At low lake levels,
however, the increase in shallow water habitat and
macrophyte growth should result in a greater amount
of benthic and epiphytic species (Wolin and Duthie
1999). Salinity is expected to increase when lake
levels are low. However, most of the identified
species and genera, with the possible exception of
Cyclotella meneghiniana, require fresh or fresh-
brackish waters, and the salinity is not very helpful
in this case.
Results

Diatom analysis The diatom assemblage is discussed on the basis of

Diatom analysis was carried out at 10-cm intervals.
Diatom samples were oxidized in 30% H2O2, washed,
centrifuged and mounted in Naphrax, as specified in
Bøe and Stabell (2001).
seven identified zones (Fig. 6). Zones are based on
the total distribution of diatom taxa, using CONISS
(Grimm 1987), and the results are presented in
diagrams constructed using TILIA (Grimm 1993) and
TGView 2.0.2 (Grimm 2004).

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Fig. 5 Diatom zones in the Nhaucati core
Fig. 6 Summary diagram of diatoms, aquatic and limnic pollen assemblages, Poaceae and Cyperaceae, and pollen of terrestrial taxa
and algae
Zone 1 (400–1000 AD)
This zone is characterised by a more than 95%
dominance of benthic/epiphytic species such as
Eunotia spp., Staurosira elliptica, Navicula spp.,
Pinnularia spp. and Gomphonema spp. Nitzschia spp.
similarly show a high representation, and though
these genera may include planktonic species, the vast
majority are benthic, which is why they are grouped
as such here. The planktonic Aulacoseira granulata
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J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141
shows values below 5% in the beginning of the zone
c. 400 AD, but increases to values above 20% around
c. 600 AD. Cyclotella meneghiniana also occurs in
very low numbers ([5%).
Zone 2 (1000–1050 AD)
This zone, which only contains two samples, is similar
to Zone 1, but Staurosira elliptica reaches values of
60% in this level at the cost of the other benthic/
J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141 1133

epiphytic species. Aulacoseira italica makes its first
appearance in this zone. The planktonic Aulacoseira
granulata is still represented in low numbers (20%)
while Cyclotella meneghiniana practically disappears.
Zone 3 (1050–1200 AD)
spp. Nitzschia spp. and Eunotia spp. also occur in this
zone, but with low numbers. The benthic Brachysira
brachysira/brebissonii occurs with values of 10–12%,
while it occurs at less than 3% below. Meanwhile,
Aulacoseira granulata decreases dramatically and
reaches its lowest values in the core at 70 cm depth.

The rate of accumulation in this zone is extremely Zone 5 (1400–1450 AD)

high. The zone is marked by high percentages of
Aulacoseira granulata and concurrent low levels of
benthic/epiphytic species. Aulacoseira granulata is
represented by very high numbers (60%) in the
bottom of the zone. Staurosira elliptica, however,
remains common in the zone until the uppermost part
of the zone. In the upper half of the zone at 120 cm
depth, Synedra cf. rumpens increases dramatically,
while there is a corresponding decrease of Aulacose-
ira granulata to below 20%. The uppermost part of
the zone displays an increase in Aulacoseira granu-
lata to 80%.
Zone 4 (1200–1400 AD)
This zone is dominated by benthic species such as
Staurosira elliptica, Pinnularia spp. and Navicula
This zone, which contains only two levels, shows a
decrease in the benthic species of Zone 4 and an
increase of Aulacoseira granulata to 60% at 50 cm
depth. The benthic Staurosira elliptica still occurs in
high numbers and there is also an increase of Synedra
cf. rumpens.
Zone 6 (1450–1600 AD)
The zone shows an increase in the benthic Navicula
spp., Pinnularia spp. and Eunotia spp. Brachysira
brachysira/brebissonii is represented with high num-
bers while Stauroseira elliptica and Synedra cf.
rumpens are rare. Aulacoseira granulata occurs
moderately in the beginning of the zone, with a
slightly variable representation of 25–40%. There is a

Fig. 7 Lake Nhaucati lake

levels and correlations with
lake level changes and dry/
wet events suggested from
the different proxies in the
region of eastern and
southern Africa. Tree ring
data from Karkloof (Tyson
and Lindesay 1992),
Makapansgat speleothem
d18O record (Holmgren
et al. 1999), Lake Chilwa
(Crossley et al. 1984), Lake
Malawi (Johnson et al.
2001; Brown and Johnson
2005), Lake Massoko
(Barker et al. 2000), Lake
Tanganyika (Alin and
Cohen 2003), Lake Victoria
(Stager et al. 2005), Lake
Edward (Russel and
Johnson 2005), Lake
Naivasha (Verschuren et al.
2000)

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gradual increase of Aulacoseira granulata towards
the uppermost part of the zone. The upper date of this
zone is problematic as the calibrated date has a wide
range (Fig. 7). It is inferred, though, that the upper
boundary of this zone dates to around 1600 AD, as
sedimentation rates would otherwise be extremely
slow in this period.
Zone 7 (1600 AD–present)
The resolution in the upper part of the core is low due
to a probable hiatus, related to the extreme period of
drought around 1700 AD. The calibrated date at
10 cm has a very wide range and is most probably a
twentieth century date. Aulacoseira granulata dom-
inate the zone with 40–60%, while the various
benthic species occur in low numbers. Only Navicula
spp. reaches similar numbers as in other zones and
Eunotia spp., Pinnularia spp. and Brachysira bra-
chysira/brebissonii is represented with values 3–6%.
Interpretation of diatom analysis
The changing concentration of planktonic and ben-
thic/epiphytic diatoms in the Lake Nhaucati core
indicates considerable variation in lake level over the
last 1,600 years. Zone 1 shows a dominance of
benthic species at c. 400 AD, suggesting low lake
levels as the accumulation of organic sediments
started. At the same time the presence of Cyclotella
meneghiniana may suggest slightly saline waters.
Around 600 AD, however, the decrease in benthic
species suggests that lake levels were rising. The
layer of compacted rootlets at 204–198 cm depth,
might indicate a dry phase occurred around 800 AD.
This phase may have been an event of short duration
as it is not reflected in the diatom assemblage. The
diatom assemblage does not suggest that the lake
dried out completely, as there is no suggestion of
reworking in the diatom assemblage or a decrease in
diatom production. Continued dominance of benthic
species suggests persistent low lake levels between c.
1000 and 1050 AD.
After 1050 AD, the dominance of planktonic taxa,
with an increase in Aulacoseira granulata, suggests
that lake levels were generally high. This resulted in
very high organic productivity in the lake, and a
correspondingly high rate of sediment accumulation
until 1400 AD. Around 1100 AD, there is an increase
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J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141
of Synedra cf. rumpens. This type has not been
positively identified to species. The genus as a whole
has been listed as both benthic and planktonic.
Synedra rumpens itself, however, is not among the
planktonic species reported by Cholnoky (1968) and
Synedra cf. rumpens is, therefore, treated here as
benthic. The increase in Synedra cf. rumpens may,
therefore, indicate a short phase of low lake levels.
However, before 1150 AD, the diatom assemblage is
again dominated by Aulacoseira granulata, showing
a return to high lake levels.
After 1200 AD (Zone 4) Aulacoseira granulata
decreases, while the values for benthic species are
high, suggesting low lake levels. This period was
interrupted by a period of higher lake levels, as
suggested by the increase of planktonic species at
50 cm depth (Zone 5), dated c. 1400 AD.
The diatom assemblage of the upper part of the
core (Zone 6, 1450–1600 AD) is dominated by the
benthic/epiphytic taxa (70–80%). However, the val-
ues of Aulacoseira granulata remain high. In the
uppermost part of the core (Zone 7, 1600 AD–
present), Aulacoseira granulata increases further,
suggesting high lake levels.
Lake level change and the limnic and aquatic
pollen assemblages of Lake Nhaucati
Pollen analysis
A detailed description of the methods and general
results of pollen analysis are available in Ekblom
(2004). Pollen samples were prepared using the
method described in Moore et al. (1991: 43–44).
This paper focuses on the correlation of limnic and
aquatic taxa to lake level changes. Pollen counts were
made until the sum of terrestrial pollen taxa (trees,
shrubs and herbs) amounted to at least 250 grains.
Aquatics and eroded pollen grains were excluded
from the terrestrial pollen sum together with sedges
(Cyperaceae) and grasses (Poaceae). The sedges and
grasses dominated the assemblage together with
Nymphaea. The grass group includes the limnic
Phragmites as well as grasses associated with dry and
damp grasslands. Terrestrial trees, shrubs and herbs
generally represented less than 5% of the assemblage,
and between 4000–9000 pollen grains were counted
in total. The results are presented in Fig. 6. Values of
J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141
grasses, sedges and limnic aquatic taxa are based on
the relative distribution of these groups in relation to
the total amount of counted pollen grains. The
representation of the algae Pediastrum and Botryo-
coccus was quantified in relation to a count of 300
pollen grains. Though not the main focus of this
paper, the main ecological groupings of the terrestrial
taxa are also presented in the summary diagram with
percentages based on the terrestrial pollen sum.
Zone 1 (400–1000 AD)
The diatom-inferred low lake levels correspond to a
peak in the distribution of Nymphaea pollen that
occurs with values around 50% in the beginning of
the zone. Poaceae occurs with low values (10%)
together with low values of Cyperaceae (9–20%). At
200 cm depth, dated around 800 AD, Typha that is
otherwise not well represented in the core, peaks with
20%. Nymphaea decreases at the same level and
continues to decrease to 190 cm depth. Meanwhile
Poaceae increases to 30% while Cyperaceae
decreases slightly. In the uppermost part of the zone,
Poaceae increases to its highest levels in the core, at
the same time as the terrestrial trees and shrubs
increases, with values over 5%.
Zone 2 (1000–1050 AD)
After 1000 AD the diatom assemblage shows that
lake levels remained relatively low, indicating low
rainfall conditions. This corresponds to declining
values of Typha that occur only sporadically in the
zones above. Cyperaceae, in turn, increase to 29%,
i.e. to more than Poaceae in the early part of the zone
while Nymphaea shows increasing values.
Zone 3 (1050–1200 AD)
The very fast accumulation of organic sediments
indicates a high biological productivity from 1,050 to
1,150 that can be explained by the generally high lake
levels in this period. The high values of Nymphaea
also suggest a high availability of nutrients. Cyper-
aceae increases progressively in these zones from 26
to 51%, while the values of Poaceae remain relatively
stable. The alga Botryococcus shows an increase in
the beginning of Zone 2, while Pediastrum peaks at
140 cm depth. The diatom assemblage suggests a
1135
short phase of low lake level at 120 cm depth. These
events are not reflected in the pollen assemblage,
though Nymphaea show a progressive decrease in
Zone 4.
Zone 4 (1200–1400 AD)
From 1200 AD, the low rate of sediment accumula-
tion corresponds to a general lowering of lake levels
relative to before. Nymphaea declines progressively
from 12% to less than 7% in the uppermost part of the
zone. Cyperaceae continues to be well represented at
the same time as there is a small increase of Pocaeae
to above 20%. The alga Botryococcus shows an
increase in the uppermost part of the zone.
Zone 5 (1400–1450 AD)
At 1400 AD the diatom assemblage shows that lake
levels were high. At 50 cm depth Nymphaea disap-
pears completely. The representation of Cyperaceae
shows continued high representation together with
similar values of Poaceae as in the previous zone.
Zone 6 (1450–1600 AD)
As discussed above, the resolution of the period after
1450 is low, most probably due to repeated droughts.
Cyperaceae increases to 60% in this zone while
Poaceae occurs with stable values. Nymphaea only
occurs in the uppermost part of the zone with low
values.
Zone 7 (1600 AD–present)
The diatom assemblage suggests generally high lake
levels in the zone, which probably corresponds to the
twentieth century. The high lake levels correspond
with an increase in Nymphaea to 25%. Cyperaceae
shows fluctuating levels with moderate values in the
beginning of the zone, and an increase again at the
sediment surface.
Correlations between the limnic and aquatic
pollen and the diatom assemblages
The pollen assemblage from water margin vegetation
and aquatics complements the diatom analysis and
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inferred lake level changes. It is, however, difficult to
discern a general trend in the correlations between
inferred lake level changes and the distribution of
limnic and aquatic vegetation.
The low lake levels in the beginning of the core
(Zone 1) correspond to low values of both Cypera-
ceae and Poaceae, but Nymphaea seems to be
favoured by the gradually rising lake levels. The
peak of Typha at 200 cm depth, suggests a short
phase of very low lake levels around 800 AD that is
also reflected as a root layer in the stratigraphy.
During this phase there is a corresponding increase of
Poaceae. This is, most probably, associated with an
expansion of dry grasslands close to the core location.
The increase of terrestrial trees, shrubs and herbs at
the same time must similarly be related to an
expansion of forest and shrubs near the core location.
In this discussion it is important to take into account
the morphology of the lake basin. During phases of
very low lake levels, lake shores were steep and
unfavourable for the growth of Phragmites and
sedges, but dry grasslands and gallery forests could
expand locally in the surrounding flatlands.
The period of high lake levels (Zone 3) corre-
sponds to progressively increasing values of
Cyperaceae and stable values of Poaceae. Cyperaceae
also continues to increase during the phase of low
lake levels at c. 1100 AD. This phase was relatively
short which is possibly why it is not reflected in the
limnic and aquatic vegetation. The high values of
Cyperaceae can also be explained by the morphology
of the lake basin. During phases of moderate and high
lake levels, the morphology of the lake basin would
have created large areas of waterlogged flatlands
south and east of the lake, allowing for the local
expansion of wet grasslands and marshy areas with
sedges, as well as Phragmites in the inundated flatter
areas.
The period after 1400 AD shows continued high
values of Cyperaceae, which again can be related to
the presence of the marshy areas around the lake
basin. The most extreme periods of droughts are not
reflected in the core, and the response of limnic and
aquatic vegetation is not shown in the diagram.
The generally higher lake levels in the twentieth
century corresponding to Zone 7 are reflected by an
increase in Nymphaea, while the variability of lake
levels during this period is also shown in the variable
levels of Cyperaceae and Typha.
123
J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141
Lake Nhaucati water levels and correlations with
regional rainfall variability
The best available climatological reference to the
Lake Nhaucati sequence is the Makapansgat Valley
isotopic sequence, as both areas are governed by the
summer rainfall regime emanating from ITCZ-related
rains (Holmgren et al. 1999; Tyson et al. 2000).
However, climate modelling of the late Quaternary
rainfall variability indicates that the Makapansgat
area may also be affected by the South Atlantic
anticyclone (Bryson and Bryson 1997) while the
coastal area where Lake Nhaucati is situated is
strongly influenced by the Mozambique current. As
shown by Nicholson (2000) interregional anomalies
should be expected. Looking at meteorological data
presented from southern Mozambique, an interre-
gional variability exists between the Limpopo valley,
Inhambane province and the Zambesi valley region
(Nicholson 1994, 2000) in comparison to the rest of
the summer rainfall region.
The Lake Nhaucati sequence provides a possibil-
ity to test the correlation of the Makapansgat data
with the southern Mozambique region (Fig. 7). The
Makapansgat data shows prevailing dry conditions
just before 0 BC/AD. After this period, enriched
d18O values suggest wetter and warmer conditions,
interrupted by additional decade-long dry phases at
400 AD, 600 AD and 800 AD (Fig. 7). Meanwhile,
the period between 900 and 1300 AD, is shown to
have been generally wetter and warmer. This phase
correlates to the globally recognised MWP (Medi-
eval Warming Period). Though the precise dating
and definition of this term in the context of southern
and eastern Africa is debated (Bradley et al. 2003;
Russel et al. 2007), we will use this term here as it is
widely used in the discussions around climatic
variability and socio-cultural change in southern
Africa (see Tyson and Lindesay 2001; Huffman
1996; Tyson et al. 2002; Holmgren and Öberg
2006). During this period there were short, decade-
long cold-dry phases starting around 1100 and
1200 AD. A prolonged period of cold and dry
conditions is suggested from 1300 AD, correlated
with the LIA. Severe cold dry periods prevailed
throughout 1600–1700 AD, with a short intermediate
phase of warmer and wetter conditions (Fig. 7).
After 1800 AD there was a return to warmer and
wetter conditions with a short decadal event of drier
J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141
periods in the beginning of the twentieth century
(Holmgren et al. 1999, 2001).
A general correlation between the Lake Nhaucati
sequence and the Makapansgat data is clear until the
beginning of the LIA. The sequence began accumu-
lating after 400 AD, following the dry period
suggested by the Makapansgat data. From this time
lake levels were gradually rising. The dry phase
displayed in the Makapansgat data at 600 AD is not
shown in the Nhaucati sequence. However, the
sequence of the nearby Lake Xiroche first began
accumulating after this date. Though not displayed in
the diatom assemblage, a dry phase occurred between
800 and 850 AD, as shown in the lithology and the
peak of Typha pollen. This correlates with depleted
values of d18O in the Makapansgat data. The generally
wetter conditions during the MWP (900–1300 AD),
suggested in the Makapansgat data, are reflected in the
Nhaucati sequence by a high representation of plank-
tonic taxa together with the rapid accumulation of
sediment, due to high organic productivity. The
Makapansgat record suggests shorter drier phases at
1100 AD, which may be correlated with the dramatic
increase of Synedra cf. rumpens in the Lake Nhaucati
core in the same period. Low values of planktonic
species suggest a lowstand around 1200 AD, which
correlates with contemporary dry conditions sug-
gested by the Makapansgat data.
The correlation is less clear for the LIA period
(1300–1800 AD) when the planktonic taxa suggest
high to moderate lake levels throughout the period.
This is contradictory with the dry conditions suggested
by the isotopic data from Makapansgat and elsewhere
in the summer rainfall region. Tyson et al. (2000)
stress that the LIA, which was the most pronounced
and prolonged climatic disturbance over the last
6,000 years, caused disturbances in the general atmo-
spheric forcing. This is shown in the anomalous
correlation between low rainfall in the summer rainfall
region and low rainfall in Madagascar, two areas that,
during most of the Holocene, have been governed by
an anti-phase rainfall regime (Tyson et al. 2001).
Disturbances in the general atmospheric circulation
during the LIA are also indicated by the anomalously
dry conditions suggested in the western part of
equatorial East Africa (Russel et al. 2007).
The seemingly high-moderate lake levels of Lake
Nhaucati during the LIA could be attributed to
disturbances in the general atmospheric forcing.
1137
Given the shallow character of the lake basin, a more
probable explanation is that the drier periods of the
LIA are not reflected in the Nhaucati record as the lake
then became completely dry. Unfortunately, the
resolution of the Nhaucati sequence in this time
period is poor due to the slow rate of accumulation
and the low sampling frequency. The high represen-
tation of planktonic species may be the result however
of intermediate shorter phases of more rainfall during
the LIA. While the summer rainfall region is thought
to have experienced generally colder and drier
conditions during the LIA it was also marked by
short events of high rainfall, for example around
1450 AD (Holmgren et al. 1999; Tyson et al. 2000).
As discussed earlier, inferred drier conditions
during the LIA are supported by various climate
proxies from the summer rainfall region. Tree rings
of a Podocarpus falsatus from Karkloof Natal
(Fig. 1), dated between 1350 and 1900 AD, also
suggest repeated drought during the LIA with the
most extreme period in 1700 AD (Tyson and Linde-
say 1992, Holmgren et al. 1999). Similarly, a review
of written sources supports the presence of repeated
droughts in Mozambique. Though these records are
not comprehensive, droughts are reported to have
occurred in 1550 AD, 1590s, 1640s, 1690s, 1740s,
1770s and 1790s (Table 1). The droughts in the
eighteenth century appear to have been particularly
severe, resulting not only in crop failure, but also
affecting wildlife and plants (Ekblom 2004). On the
basis of all these indications, we propose that the
most extreme periods of drought in the seventeenth
and eighteenth centuries are not reflected in the lake
Nhaucati sequence and that the area generally
experienced dry conditions during the LIA. Indeed,
pollen analysis from Lake Nhaucati and more clearly
from nearby Lake Xiroche, does suggest that this was
a period of vegetation transformations with a decline
of forest in the area and the disappearance of forest-
associated taxa between 1400 and 1600 AD. These
transformations cannot be linked with human activ-
ities and are more likely a consequence of repeated
droughts (Ekblom 2004, in press).
The last two centuries, likewise, are not well
covered in the Nhaucati record. The diatom assem-
blage suggests, however, that this period was
generally wetter than previous centuries. This is
supported by both meteorological data from the
summer rainfall region and the Makapansgat data
123
1138 J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141

Table 1 Famines and/or droughts according to written sources from the region betweenZambesi and Maputo bay
Year Effect Reason Region References

1554 Scarce provisions Drought? Maputo bay 1

1560s Drought-locusts Zambesi; Sena (date not certain, see discussion below) 9
1593 Scarce provision Drought? South of Maputo bay 2
1595 Famine Drought-locusts Zambesi valley 3
1642–1647 Famine? Drought-locusts Maputo bay 4
1714, 1717 Famine? Drought Zimbabwe interior 5, 9
1744–1745 Famine? Drought Zumbo 5, 9
1758–1759 Famine? Drought Zambesi area 5, 9
1777 Famine? Drought Maputo bay 5
1790–1791 Famine Drought Maputo bay and Inhambane, north of Inhambane 5
1794–1802 Drought Southern Africa 8
1820s Famine Drought Maputo bay to Northern Mozambique 5, 8
1858–1863 Famine? Drought Sene, Tete, Quelimane, Limopo valley 5
1870s Famine? Drought Sene, Tete, Quelimane, Limpopo valley 5
1875 Famine Drought ‘‘Magadingele’’, Maputo bay 6
1880 Famine Bazaruto Island 10
1896–1897 Drought Mozambique lowlands and Transvaal 5
1903 Famine Maputo bay 6
1908 Maize crop failed Drought Southern Mozambique 7
1912 Famine Drought Southern Mozambique 7
1917 Crop failure Torrential rains Southern Mozambique 7
1922 Famine Drought Southern Mozambique, Vilanculous 7
References used are: 1) Manuel de Mesquita Prestrello (Theal 1964, vol I, p. 271); 2) Joaõ Baptista Lanvanha (Theal 1964, vol II,
p. 327); 3) Dos Santos (Theal 1964, vol VII, p. 369); 4) Bento Teyxeyra Feyo (Theal 1964, vol VIII, p. 352); 5) Liesegang (Nicholson
1994); 6) Shinangana (Junod 1927, vol II, p. 586); 7) Young (1977); 8); Newitt (1995, p. 255); 9) Pikirayi (2003); 10) Ivens Ferraz
(in Rita-Ferreira 1999, p. 15)

(Holmgren et al. 1999; Tyson 1999; Tyson et al.
2000). The droughts in the beginning of the twentieth
century suggested by the Makapansgat data and
reported in the written sources (Table 1) are not
reflected in the Nhaucati core, probably because of
the low sample resolution throughout this period.
In summary, the lake Nhaucati sequence shows that
the Vilankulos region has been governed by similar
rainfall regimes as Makapansgat valley during the last
1,600 years. This confirms the general hypothesis of a
strengthening of the ITCZ during the MWP, causing
more rainfall in the summer rainfall region. Though
the presence of a gap in the lake Nhaucati sequence
due to dry conditions needs to be confirmed, we can
conclude on the basis of other data that there was a
contraction of the ITCZ during the LIA resulting in
less rainfall in the summer rainfall region.
This general model of atmospheric forcing concurs
with the presence of low lake levels in eastern Africa
during the MWP and high lake levels in eastern
Africa during the LIA (Fig. 7). As pointed out by
Russel et al. (2007), this general model of atmo-
spheric forcing does not explain the presence of dry
conditions in the western part of equatorial East
Africa. It is important to note that this schematic
model of atmospheric forcing is relevant for the
centennial timescale we are discussing here. The
complex inter-annual variability governed by oce-
anic-atmospheric interactions such as the El Niño-
Southern Oscillation, or the decadal variability
reported by Tyson and Preston-Whyte (2000), is not
reflected in the sequence, but may obscure the effect
of larger trends, not only in the case of Lake
Nhaucati, but also in other lake studies in the region.
The apparent interregional variability may therefore
reflect a fine-scale temporal variability, an issue that
can only be resolved by looking at more high-
resolution sequences across the region.

123
J Paleolimnol (2008) 40:1127–1141
The sequences from Lakes Malawi, Massoko and
Chilwa are important in this discussion as these lakes,
situated between latitudes 9°S and 15°S, lie close to
the climatic boundary between the summer rainfall
region and the bimodal rainfall region of eastern
Africa. A contraction of the ITCZ would result in
shifts in the seasonal mode of rainfall and, impor-
tantly, a decrease in average rainfall in this
transitional area compared to equatorial Africa. The
resolution of the Lake Massoko sequence (Barker
et al. 2000) is low for the time period discussed, and
dry conditions are suggested for the whole period
between 800 and 1600 AD, after which a shorter
high-stand may be indicated in the diatom assem-
blage. Lake level changes of Lake Chilwa (presently
dominated by summer rainfall) have been inferred on
the basis of indirect evidence only (Crossley et al.
1984). Dating of Adansonia digitata tree-rings and
correlations with a fossil beach ridge suggests a high
stand between 1600 and 1700 AD and dry conditions
between 1700 and 1800 AD. These sequences do not,
therefore, support our hypothesis, though it is possi-
ble that higher-resolution, better-dated sediment
sequences may change this picture. Meanwhile the
high-resolution sequence from Lake Malawi (John-
son et al. 2001; Brown and Johnson 2005), does
reflect low lake levels during the whole of the LIA,
supporting the hypothesis of a contraction of the
ITCZ in the equatorial region during the LIA.
Conclusion
The inferred lake level changes based on diatom
assemblages from Lake Nhaucati correlate with other
palaeoclimate data from the summer rainfall region.
From the diatom and pollen assemblages we conclude
that lake levels were low before 500 AD, and
gradually increased towards the end of the first
millennium. This process was interrupted by a period
of low lake levels at 800 AD, which resulted in the
lake almost drying out. High lake levels and high
organic productivity between 1000 and 1300 AD,
shown by the dominance of planktonic taxa, corre-
spond to the higher rainfall during the MWP shown in
the Makapansgat sequence (Holmgren et al. 1999,
Tyson et al. 2000). This was interrupted by a short
dry phase around 1100 and 1200 AD which is also
1139
reflected in the Makapansgat data (Holmgren et al.
1999, Tyson et al. 2000).
Unfortunately, the time resolution and frequency
of sampling in the period of most dramatic change,
the LIA, is very low. We argue that the generally dry
conditions during the LIA suggested by the Maka-
pansgat data and other proxies from the summer
rainfall region resulted in a very slow rate of
sediment accumulation in Lake Nhaucati and prob-
ably a hiatus during the most extreme period of
droughts around 1700 AD. The occurrence of
extreme droughts in this period is supported by the
tree ring data from Natal (Tyson and Preston-Whyte
2000) as well as written sources (Ekblom 2004). The
diatom assemblage of the period after the LIA, i.e.
post 1850 AD, suggests higher lake levels, and is
supported by both meteorological data from the
summer rainfall region and the Makapansgat data
(Holmgren et al. 1999; Tyson et al. 2000). Pollen
data suggest that the most dramatic climate changes
occurred during the LIA with a marked reduction of
semi-deciduous forests and riverine gallery forests
from 1400 to 1600 AD (Ekblom 2004, in press).
The results confirm the presence of an anti-phase
relationship between the summer rainfall region of
southern Africa and the bimodal region of east
tropical Africa. They also support the general hypoth-
esis that contractions and expansions of the ITCZ and
the atmospheric forcing related with these movements
is the main agent behind rainfall variability in the two
regions on centennial scales
Acknowledgements The research was sponsored by SAREC
(Swedish agency for research cooperation) and carried out in
cooperation with Dept. of Archaeology and Ancient History,
Uppsala University and Dept. de Anthropologia e Archeologia,
Eduardo Mondlane University, Mozambique under the auspices
of HRAC (Human responses and contributions to environmental
change). Comments to an early version of the text have kindly
been given by Prof. Jan Risberg, Dept. of Physical Geography,
Stockholm University. Acknowledgements go also to
Dr. Angelica Feurdean and Elinor Breman, OxLel (Oxford
University Long Term Ecology Lab.) for comments on the text
and content. The comments from the anonymous reviewers also
contributed greatly to the structure of the paper and to the
discussion.
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