After First Draft Comment by MR Anteneh

Assessment of climate change impacts of legedadi water
reservoir using weap tools.(AAWSA)Ethiopia
ETHIOPIAN CIVIL SERVICE UNIVERSITY
College: Urban Planning and Engineering
Department: Environmental and Climate Change Management

reservoir using WEAP tools.(AAWSA)Ethiopia
By
SEMAGN AGASH ID.
No: ECSU2100700
Advisor Name
Dr.Degu
A Thesis Submitted to the Weekend Program College of Urban Planning and

Engineering Ethiopian Civil Service University, in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Award of a Master’s Degree in Environmental and
Climate Change Management.
JAN 2023
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT
Climate change is a major development challenge to Ethiopia. Developing countries are likely to
be affected most, and Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries. Addis Ababa is expected
to experience water supply stress because of complex interaction of urbanization and climate
change.
The aim of this study is to evaluate Assessment of climate change impacts of
legedadi water reservoir of Addis Ababa.

This study is an attempt to assess the impact of climate change on water resources of
Lege Dadi water reservior which is situated in Oromia Regional State and located
about 24km east of Addis Ababa. Lege Dadi water reservoir is one of the largest of the
three main water supply sources of Addis Ababa city having area of 206km2 and
located between latitude of 9°04'59‟N10o01'48‟‟N and longitude 38°54'58‟‟E-
50o8'0‟‟ E and elevations range from 2398 to 3248 m.a.s.l. The main objective of the
study is to select appropriate model for assessing the impact of climate changes on
Lege Dadi water reservoir. In this study data such as climatic, hydrologic data, land
use/cover and soil data available are used to assess climate change impacts on legedadi
water reservoir. The primary data will be collecting through questionnaires, in-depth
interviews and focus group discussion by using a simple random sampling technique
and also For analyzing rainfall-runoff for the study area, the actual rainfall runoff data
were divided into six periods; 1st actual data collected from 1996-2007 (60% of the
period of data availability), 2nd actual data collected from 2008-2015 (40% of the
available data), 3rd 60% of 8 years actual data from 2008-2013, 4th actual data from
2013-2015, 5th 1996-2010 i.e. 75% of the 20 years data and lastly the rest of the 20
years data (25% of total) were analyzed to compare and select the appropriate model
for Lege Dadi water reservoir. Rainfall, Runoff, Climate Change
ACRONYMS
FGD Focus Group Discussion

SPSS Statistical Package for Social Science
DCM: Digital Circulation Model
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NMSA: National Meteorological Service Agency
AAWSA Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority
GIS Geographical Information System

CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
Under this chapter, background of the study under caption, problem statements that explains
why the study is needed, objectives of the study, research questions and the outcome of the study
are discussed in details.
Background
Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia is located between 460218 an489590
easting (UTM), and 976222 and 1005636 northing (UTM). The city have a coverage
area of 518 square kilometers and its population census in 2007 was 2,739,551[1]. The
Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority (AAWSA) is a public institution in the
city, which is responsible for the supply of potable water. The Authority currently has
nine branch offices and head office at Megenagna. The branch offices are Gurd Shola,
Megenagna, Arada, Gulele, Addis Ketema, NifasSilk, Mekanisa, Lemikura and Akaki
branch.
Existing Water Supply Sources of Addis Ababa city
Surface water is a natural resource occurring on the earth’s surface and plays an
essential role in sustaining humankind and other forms of life (Babel et al., 2005).
Currently the city of Addis Ababa gets its water supply from both surface water and
ground water sources. There are three main surface water dams as sources for the
surface water supply. These are Gefersa, Legedadi and Dire. The ground water source
is from Akaki ground water (Akaki well field) and from spring and wells within and
near Addis Ababa. There are two conventional water treatment facilities, namely
Legedadi water treatment plant and Gefersa water treatment plant to supply the city
treated water from the above different sources. The location of the Addis Ababa water
supply sources is shown in fig.1. Gefersa dam is situated 18 km west of Addis Ababa;
Legedadi dam is situated 25 km east of Addis Ababa; and Akaki well field is situated
southeast of Akaki town and about 22 km south of Addis Ababa. Fig.2 and fig.3 are
photo showing the Gefersa and Legedadi dams.
Climate change presents a signiﬁcant additional challenge to the achievement of
sustainable water management around the globe (Ostefeld et al., 2012). Climate change
will likely affect the legedadi water reservoir due to the expected changes in
precipitation and evapotranspiration and the spatial- temporal distribution of these
essential water balance components (Kumar et al., 2017).
The impact of climate change on water reservoir is the most crucial research agenda in worldwide
level (IPCC, 2007). This change in climate causes a significant impact on the water reservoir by
disturbing the normal hydrological processes. Future change in overall flow magnitude, variability
and timing of the main flow event are among the most frequently cited hydrological issues (Fredrick,
2002: Wurbs et al., 2005).
Recent research shows that climate change will increase the pace of the global hydrologic cycle with
accompanied rise in temperature, variability and changes in precipitation patterns (Saloua et al., 2012;
Daniel, 2011). Changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation invariably affect stream flow
and the resultant storage volumes of reservoirs. For example, such changes manifest themselves in
the form of increased intensity of floods or occurrence of severe droughts which severely affect the
water resources at local and regional levels (Akiça, 2012). Human induced climate change affects the
quality and quantity of global water resources and this necessitates changes in the way these
resources are managed (Manjarrez et al., 2010). Sub-Saharan countries are among those most
threatened by water stress, in view of the likelihood of extreme variability, seasonality, and
decreasing stream-flows that are predicted to occur in the coming decades (Saloua et al., 2012).
Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa is the domi Livelihoods of farming and pastoral communities and
shatters their food security, whilst it also has a significant negative effect on GDP growth (UN-Water,
2012). On the other hand, floods impact on infrastructure, transportation, goods and service flows as
well as clean water supplies and health negatively (Yahaya et al., 2014; FDRE Climate Resilient,
2011).The urbanization rate in Sub-Saharan Africa is increasing (George et al., 2011). Addis Ababa is
one of these fast growing sub mega cities in recent times (AACPPO, 2014). As the administrative
seat and political capital of Ethiopia, the city attracts the highest number of migrants
from other parts of the country (ORAAMP, 2002)). As the supply of water must be assured
for all, to meet the basic human needs, there is a need for progressive water supply planning and
management system for the city in order to bring about fundamental changes in the ways water is
currently used as well as distributed among different categories of users (Foster and
Morella,2011;AAWSA,2012)
Statement of the problem
Climate change is the sever problem that the whole world facing today. Besides, global climate
changes effect, some studies conducted in Lege Dadi Water Resources Catchment(Wakuma Midaksa
Kajela) Abay and A wash basins show that the basins are climate sensitive (TAHEL, 2000).
Legadade, water reservoir is in the upper North Western part of a wash basin; therefore, climate
change should be a big concern and should be considered to evaluate the future climate effect on the
reservoir which is the main sources of water supply of Addis Ababa. It has been clearly seen that
climate change has huge influence to impose on the water availability of the water sources of Addis
Ababa by bringing seasonal shift to rainfall pattern so that changing the magnitudes of hydrologic
components of the reservoir (Oziranski, 2009). This implies the political center of Ethiopia and
Africa is under water shortage stress. This shortage is mainly a result of lack of water supply to meet
the real demand of the city. Hence, this research is undertaken to evaluate the impact of climate
change on legedadi water reservoirIn addis ababa city. Therefore, it will be an interesting to study the
impacts of climate change on legedadi water reservoir.
Objectives of the Study
General objective
The general objective of this paper will be to assessment of climate change impacts of legedadi water
reservoir.
Specific objective
 To assess the climate variability (temperature, precipitation).
 To evaluate the water supplying potentials of legedadi reservoir at varies scenarios.
 To assess the met/unmet condition of drinking water supply from legedadi reservoir.
 To explore the potential drinking water met balance alternative.
Research Questions
Generally, the study was attempted to give answer for the following questions:
 Is there any climate change impact on the legedadi water reservoir?
 Is there any climate change impact on hydrological parameters (run off,

rainfall)?
Scope of the study
1 Spatial scope
Geographically: - it is limited to Addis Ababa and tafo boundary.
2 to evaluate the impacts of climate change on legedadi water reservoir in (AAWSA) Addis Ababa.
3 Temporal Scopes.
In terms of temporal scope, the study considers those people who are living in Legedade, Gefersa,
and dire dam reservoir and the research period will be from March 2023 up to June 2023.
Significance of the study
The major significance of this study is to allow the planners, decision makers and any concerned
persons to know the consequences of climate change on climate and hydrological variables and the
impacts on water reservoir planning management and accordingly device decision and management
support tools. Moreover, it also allows creating awareness, the status of the reservoirs capacity and
supply and demand conditions. As well as it has significant to decide for the future to solve the
problems of legedadi water reservoir.
Description of the Study Area-
The study is situated in Oromia Regional State and located about 24km east of Addis Ababa.
Lege Dadi catchment is one of the largest of the three main water supply sources of Addis Ababa city
having area of 206km2 and located between latitude of 9°04'59‟N10o01'48‟‟N and longitude
38°54'58‟‟E-50o8'0‟‟ E and elevations range from 2398 to 3248 m.a.s.l.In general,
approximately lies in geographic coordinates of 481.3kms east to 508 km east of UTM and 996kms
north to 1019kms north UTM.
Limitations of the study
Any research undertaking faces certain limitations. Similarly, this research is not free from such
limitations mainly caused by studding area and time constraints. It is difficult to get full information
about the study area due to limited access to information. However, through the process the
researcher makes an effort and by engages other concerning bodies overcome the constraints that face
during the research work.
Definition of key terms
Climate scenarios :- are plausible representations of the future that are consistent with assumptions
about future emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants and with our understanding of the
effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of these gases on global climate.
Storyline- a narrative description of a scenario (or a family of scenarios), highlighting the main
scenario characteristics and dynamics, and the relationships between key driving force.
2 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 INTRODUCGION
The following literature review is focused on the relevant topics in terms of the evaluation of the
status of the reservoirs capacity, evaluation of demand and supply criteria and assessment of the
impact of climate change on the surface water supply, using detail design documents, and GCMs
models are of interest of this study.
The awareness of the extent to which change of climate can affect the environment, society, and
economy is increasing. Long-term climate change has been observed at continental, regional, and
ocean basin scales, due to increasing concentration of greenhouse gases particularly carbon dioxide.
These include changes in precipitation amounts and timings, arctic temperatures, wind patterns, and
aspects of extreme weather like heavy precipitation, drought, and heat waves (IPCC, 2007).
The pattern of precipitation is not distributed evenly across the world and is governed by atmospheric
circulation patterns and moisture availability. These two factors are impacted by temperature so the
pattern of precipitation is expected to change due to changing temperature. The changes include the
type of precipitation, the amount, the intensity and the frequency. Precipitation has increased in
eastern North America, southern South America, and northern Europe and decreased in the
Mediterranean, most of Africa, and southern Asia (Trenberth, K.E et al., 2007).
Many studies into the detection and attribution of climate change have found that most of the increase
in average global surface temperature over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities (IPCC,
2001a).
2.2 Weather / climate
Definition In common languages, the notions of “Weather” and “Climate” are loosely defined.
“Weather” is the fluctuating state of the atmosphere around us, characterized by the temperature,
wind, precipitation, clouds and other weather elements. This weather is the result of rapidly
developing and decaying weather systems such as mid-latitude low and high pressure systems with
their associated frontal zones, showers and tropical cyclones. Weather has only limited predictability.
Mesoscale convective systems are predictable over a period of hours only; synoptic scale cyclones
may be predictable over a period of several days to a week .Beyond a week or two, individual
weather systems are unpredictable. “Climate” refers to the average weather in terms of the mean and
its variability over a certain time-span in a certain area. Classical climatology provides classifications
and descriptions of the various climate regimes found on earth. Climate varies from place to place,
depending on latitude, distance to the sea, vegetation, presence or absence of mountains and other
geographical factors. Climate varies also in time; from season to season, year to year, decade to
decade or on much longer time-scales, such as the Ice ages. Statistically, significant variations of the
mean state of the climate or of its variability are referred to as climate change (IPCC, TAR 2001).
Climate variations and changes, caused by external forcing, may be partly predictable, particularly on
the larger continental and global spatial scales. Because human activities, such as the emission of
greenhouse gases or land-use change, do result in external forcing, it is believed that the large-scale
aspects of human-induced climate change are also partly predictable.
2.3 Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream flow and Reservoir
Climate change is a global concern but how will this impact water supply? This is a major question
that water managers are trying to answer using General Circulation Models (GCMs). A GCM is a
numerical model that simulates how oceans, atmosphere, land surface and cry sphere will respond to
increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. There are multiple GCMs and runs, each taking into
account different forcing scenarios. These scenarios include varied amounts of greenhouse gas
emissions by certain time periods, changes in temperature, population growth and more. GCMs are
created at a coarse resolution, around 250 and 600 kilometers (km) to simulate the entire earth. To
support the spatial resolution of regional hydrologic simulations required for water supply,
hydrologists have developed dynamical and statistical techniques to downscale a GCM to a regional
scale (~1 to 10 km) (Ahmed et al. 2012, Daniels et al. 2012, and Sharma et al. 2013); however, these
techniques cause biases such as variances in mean precipitation, underestimation of high
precipitation, or differences in number of drizzle days (Grillakis et al. 2013; IPCC 2013). It is
unknown if these techniques alter precipitation signals embedded in these models or if they reproduce
climate states that are viable for water resource planning and management. Replicating important
historical climate states such as wet or dry season or El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital for
water supply; therefore it is critical to understand GCM shortcomings prior to implementation for
future projection scenarios. (Toni Panaou)
2.4 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resource and Reservoir
Findings of the IPCC 2001, strongly suggests that water resource respond to global warming in ways
that will negatively affect the water availability and water supplies. The climate change has also the
potential to deteriorate the surface water quality due to increased evapotranspiration, lower flows and
rivers becoming warmer, making the management of water treatment works (and subsequent
compliance with the drinking water quality regulations) more challenging. The reduction in the runoff
volume will lead to the decrease in the inflow to the reservoirs consequently; longer period might be
required to fill the reservoir. As result of the increase in temperature, the rate of evaporation from
the reservoir open water surface may increase and this may create the reservoir to fail to supply at
least the required amount of demand because of its depletion or decrease in the active storage volume
and/or water level.
According to the Ethiopian National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA, 2001) study for 42
meteorological stations, the country has experienced both dry and wet years over the last 50 years.
Trend analysis of the annual rainfall show that, there was a declining trend in the northern half of the
country and southern Ethiopia, while there is an increasing trend in the central part of the country.
However, the overall trend in the entire country is more or less constant.
2.5 Impact of climate Change on Surface Water Resources of Ethiopia
The impacts of climate change on water resources are high on the research agenda worldwide (IPCC
2007). Future changes in overall flow magnitude, variability and timing of the main flow events are
among the most frequently cited hydrologic issues (Frederick 2002; Wurbs et al. 2005). Moreover
water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century, and,
although there is no global water scarcity as such, an increasing number of regions are chronically
short of water. By 2025, 1 800 million people will be living in countries or regions with absolute
water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world population could be under stress conditions. The situation
will be exacerbated as rapidly growing urban areas place heavy pressure on neighboring water
resources (UN 2006). Climate change is likely to aggravate the scarcity of water that is being driven
by other basic forces. On one authoritative view, global warming of 2ºC would lead to a situation
where “between 100 million and 400 million more people could be at risk of hunger, and 1 to 2
billion more people may no longer have enough water to meet their consumption, hygiene and food
needs” (World Bank, 2009). Climate change is severely impacting the hydrological cycle and
consequently, water management. This will in turn have significant effects on human development
and security (IPCC, 2007). Climate change will increase the number of people living in water
stressed regions globally (Bates, 2008). In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the number of countries where
water demand outstrips available resources is increasing. Many African countries experience either
water stress or water scarcity or both. Moreover, food insecurity remains endemic throughout much
of Africa, with climatic factors such as rainfall variability a major cause. For example, in 2006, 25
African countries required food aid, largely due to recurring drought and Ethiopia was one of the
countries. Both observational records and climate projections provide strong evidence that freshwater
resources are vulnerable, and have the potential to be strongly impacted. Climate change is expected to
have adverse impacts on socioeconomic development in all nations although the degree of the impact will
differ. The ICPP findings indicate that developing countries such as Ethiopia will be more vulnerable to
climate change. Climate change may have far-reaching implications for Ethiopia due to various reasons. The
economy of the country mainly depends on agriculture, which is very sensitive to climate variations. A large
part of the country is arid and semiarid and is highly prone to desertification and drought. The country has also
fragile highland ecosystem which is currently under stress due to population pressure. Forest, water and
biodiversity resources of the country are also climate sensitive. Climate change is therefore a case for concern
(NMSA, 2001). Despite the fact that the impact of climate change is assessed and forecasted for different
specific water resources of the country, impacts on water resources and water-dependent services have yet to
be adequately addressed in either scientific analyses or water policy as the results of different studies are in
fragmented manner. (Bayisa, Gobena Dirirsa)
2.6 Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

Water resources planning and management in the 21st century is becoming an increasingly difficult task due to
conflicting demands from various stakeholder groups, increasing population, rapid urbanization, projected
climate change and consequent changes expected in the hydrologic cycle, the use of toxic chemicals in various
land use activities, and the increasing incidence of natural disasters. Among these, the impacts of global
warming and consequent projected climate change due to the increasing concentrations of Greenhouse Gases
(GHGs) in the atmosphere on water resources have emerged as a matter of grave concern to water resource
managers and decision-makers. Human activities and changes in land cover and use are believed to be the
primary cause of build up in the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. This alters the energy balance and tends
to warm the atmosphere resulting in climate change. Studies in recent years have shown important regional
water resources vulnerabilities to changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns. It is primarily at the
local and regional scales that policies could be evolved and technical measures could be taken to avoid or
reduce the negative impacts of climatic change on the natural environment and society. Understanding the
possible impacts of climate change on water resources is of utmost importance for ensuring its appropriate
management and utilization
Water is a very vital natural resource on which the survival of all living species is dependent. Since it
is not spatially distributed in a way as to be able to meet the requirements of the population at a local
level, proper management of water resources becomes extremely important so as to enable meeting
the current and future demands as well as to ensure sustainability. Climate change is recognized as
one of the most serious challenges facing the world today and is expected to impact hydrological
processes such as precipitation, and evapotranspiration. This, in turn, may have direct impact on
stream flow and groundwater recharge. Likely impacts of projected climate change on water
resources, consequent to global warming due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, has emerged as a matter of grave concern to decision makers all over the globe.
2.7 Climate Change and Water in Africa and Challenges
The water sector in Africa is very sensitive to changes in climate and prolonged climate variability.
Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle, temperature balance, and rainfall patterns
across Africa and thus has the potential to add to existing pressure on water availability, accessibility,
and demand, thereby affecting economic development, ecosystems, and biodiversity. Even in the
absence of climate change, present population trends and patterns of water use indicate that more
countries in Africa will exceed the limits of their economically usable, land-based water resources
before 2025. However, climate change will not have uniform impacts on water resources across the
continent. In some parts, it will aggravate water stress while in others it will reduce it. Water
management is a pressing challenge, which, if not improved now, could see its problems greatly
exacerbated in a future, warmer climate. Major concerns for the water sector in Africa include limited
access to water, including groundwater, and limited governance capacity. Limited access is a result of
insufficient infrastructure to provide reliable supplies of water for drinking, agriculture, and other
uses.
2.7.1Challenges
Observational evidence shows that many vital sources of water in Africa, including lakes, rivers, and
snow-covered mountains are under pressure. Although part of the cause may be blamed on greatly
increasing demand, climate change and climate variability are clearly putting significant pressure on
Africa’s water resources. The future impact of climate on water resources remains uncertain, but
some of the challenges Africa faces are clear.
2.7.2 Water supply and sanitation.
Only 64% of the potentially available water in Africa has been developed to date. Many countries,
however, will shift from water surplus to water scarcity between now and 2025.Water supply utilities
have major challenges in coping with inadequate water storage, inadequate and poorly maintained
supply networks, and the vulnerability of many water supply systems to droughts and floods. Water
supply and sanitation can be improved with increased financing, enhanced public-private
partnerships, empowerment of women, and special help for rural populations.
2.7.3 Water Quality.
Degradation of water quality is a serious challenge in Africa. The expansion of agriculture to
marginal land; deforestation, urbanization, and urban waste pollution are reducing water quality.
Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) can help to overcome the challenge of water
pollution.
2.7.4 Climate Change Scenarios
Climate scenarios are plausible representations of the future that are consistent with assumptions
about future emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants and with our understanding of the
effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of these gases on global climate. A range of scenarios
can be used to identify the sensitivity of an exposure unit to climate change and to help policy makers
decide on appropriate policy responses. It is important to emphasize that climate scenarios are not
predictions, like weather forecasts are. Weather forecasts make use of enormous quantities of
information on the observed state of the atmosphere and calculate, using the laws of physics, how this
state will evolve during the next few days, producing a prediction of the future - a forecast. In
contrast, a climatic scenario is a plausible indication of what the future could be like over decades or
centuries, given a specific set of assumptions. These assumptions include future trends in energy
demand, emissions of greenhouse gases, land use change as well as assumptions about the behavior
of the climate system over long time scales. It is largely the uncertainty surrounding these
assumptions, which determines the range of possible scenarios (Carter et al., 1999).Climate scenarios
are sets of time series or statistical measures of climate variables, such as temperature and
precipitation, that represent alternative climate conditions for past, present or future conditions.
Varieties of methods have been developed to generate climate scenarios for use in the assessment of
the impacts of climate variability and change. These methods are typically categorized as being
empirical or process model based. The empirical approaches use information.
Many studies have shown that the hydrological processes in drainage basins can be very sensitive
to changes in temperature, rainfall and increased atmospheric CO2. Increasing trends in surface
temperature have been shown to exist, with consequent effects on the hydrological cycle and drainage
basin processes (Parajuli 2010). Wigley and Raper (2001), Nearing et al. (2005) and Githui et al.
(2009) state that, with increasing global temperatures, changes in the hydrological cycle will become
increasingly marked. Rainfall and evapotranspiration are the most affected, and such changes may
affect water availability and sediment production, as well as modifying the hydrological regime and
river basin response. Greater losses of soil occur in regions where variability in rainfall and runoff is
high (Marshall and Randhir 2008). The effects of different future climate conditions are being
simulated for drainage basins ranging in size from very small to very large in many parts of the
world, in order to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on water resources (Jha et al.
2006, Bekele and Kanapp 2010). Predictions of the effects of climate change on surface runoff and
ground water recharge vary widely, depending on the region and the climate scenario used; so do
projected changes in rainfall. For example, the amplitude and frequency of high flows are projected
to increase in most regions of the world, and those of minimum flows will be smaller (Krol and
Bronstert 2007, Mello et al. 2008). The principal tools used to explore the potential effects of climate
change and changing land use are hydrological models (Parajuli 2010). Notable amongst them is the
Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT; Arnold et al. 1998) developed in the early 1990s for use by
the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
(M. Perazzoli, A. Pinheiro and V. Kaufmann)
2.8 Types of Climate Scenarios
According to Carter et al., (1999), climate scenarios fall into three main classes, which are mentioned
as follows:
Synthetic scenarios: Synthetic scenarios describe techniques where particular climatic (or related)
elements are changed by a realistic but arbitrary amount, often according to a qualitative
interpretation of climate model simulations for a region. For example, adjustments of baseline
temperatures by +1, 2, 3 and 4OC and baseline precipitation by 5, 10, 15 and 20 percent could
represent various magnitudes of future change.
Analogue scenarios: Analogue scenarios are constructed by identifying recorded climate regimes,
which may resemble the future climate in a given region. These records can be obtained either from
the past (temporal analogues) or from another region at the present (spatial analogues).
Scenarios from general circulation model outputs: Climate models at different spatial scales and
levels of complexity provide the major source of information for constructing scenarios.
GCMs and a hierarchy of simple models produce information at the global scale
2.9 Modeling Climate Change
The earth’s climate is governed by the interaction between many processes in the atmosphere, ocean,
land surface and cry sphere. The interactions are complex and extensive so that quantitative
predictions of the climate of greenhouse gas increase cannot be made through simple intuitive
reasoning. For this reason, computer models have been developed which try to mathematically
simulate the climatic system, including the interaction between the system component (Coulibaly and
Dibike, 2004). For climate simulation, the major components of the climate system that must be
represented in sub-models are atmospheric, ocean, land surface, cry sphere and biosphere along with
the processes that go on within and between them.
The mathematical models generally used to simulate the present climate and project future climate
with forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols are generally referred to as GCMS (General
Circulation Models). General circulation models in which the atmosphere and ocean components
have been coupled are also known as Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs).
Currently, the resolution of the atmospheric part of a typical model is about 250 km in the horizontal
and about 1km in the vertical above the boundary layer. The resolution of a typical ocean model is
about 200 to 400 m in the vertical, with a horizontal resolution of about 125 to 250 km. Many
physical processes, such as those related to clouds or ocean convection, take place at much smaller
spatial scales than the model grid and therefore cannot be modeled and resolved explicitly. Their
average effects are approximately included in a simple way by taking advantage of physically based
relationships with the larger-scale variables through the techniques of parameterizations (Houghton,
2001).
2.9.1General Circulation Model (GCM)
The climate model is a mathematical description of the earth’s climate system, broken into a number
of grid boxes and levels in the atmosphere, ocean and land. At each of these grid points equations are
solved which describe the large-scale balances of the momentum, heat and moisture. Based on this, a
wide range climate models are developed.
When GCMs comes to quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water resources, more
problems arise. GCMs generally operate at coarse resolutions across the continents, but much smaller
scales (in both time and space) are required for catchment hydrological modeling (Bergkamp et al.
2003).
Generally, coarse spatial resolution of GCMs also presents a significant problem when rainfall is
being considered. GCMs usually generate an estimate of the average rainfall over a large grid square
for the GCM time step, but they fail to take into account localized temporal and spatial variations in
rainfall which, on a smaller scale, can produce highly significant results (Calder, 2005). Even though,
GCMs has the above main limitations, currently it has been recognized to be able to represent
reasonably well the main futures of global distribution of the basic climate parameters (Gates et al.,
1999; Lambert and Boer, 2001). In order to decrease the uncertainty related to coarse resolution of
GCMs, usually, most climate impact assessment researches use different downscaling methods such
as dynamic downscaling method and/or statistical downscaling method. These two fundamental
approaches exist for the downscaling of large-scale GCM output to a ﬁner spatial resolution. The
dynamical approach is used where a higher- resolution climate model is embedded within a GCM.
The other approach is to use statistical methods to establish empirical relationships between GCM-
resolution climate variables and local climate (Fowler et al., 2007).
According to Wilby and Dawson (2007) discussion, Downscaling is the term given to the process of
deriving finer resolution data (e.g., for a particular site) from coarser resolution GCM data. It may be
possible to define a relationship, or relationships, between site climate and large-scale (i.e., GCM grid
box scale) climate which can then be used to derive more realistic values of the future climate at the
site scale.
Conclusion
From the literature is clear that there is a strong linkage between impact of climate change and
surface water. Very few of these researchers studied on the impact of climate change and population
growth on surface water resource. The conclusion from these and other works has contributed to an
increasing curiosity of academics in the study linking to environmental effluence as well as its
consequences on human income and biodiver
CHAPTER THREE MATERIALS AND METHODS
3. MATERIALS AND METHODS
3.1 MATERIALS
The objective of the study is to carry out the rainfall runoff generating for legedadi
chachment to evaluate climate change impact on extreme hydrological event for
different scenarios. The methods used include desk study of the previous study on
different basins, data collection from institutions such as Ministry of water resource,
national meteorological agency and etc. After collecting the necessary data for the
research delineation of the study areas, determination of basin characteristics, and
analysis of rainfall and stream flow data have been made. The basin data is pre-
processed by ARC-GIS 9.3 Arc- hydro and HEC-GeoHMS and exported to HECHMS
for generation of rainfall-runoff model.
The objective of the study is to carry out the rainfall runoff generating for legedadi catchment to
evaluate climate change impact on legedadi water reservoir event for different scenarios. The
methods used include desk study of the previous study on different basins, data collection from
institutions such as Ministry of water resource, national meteorological agency and etc. After
collecting the necessary data for the research delineation of the study areas, determination of basin
characteristics, and analysis of rainfall and stream flow data have been made. The basin data is pre-
processed by ARC-GIS, weap tools and exported to generation of rainfall-runoff model. The
materials used for this research are: - ARC-GIS to obtain hydrological and physical parameters and
spatial information of the catchments of the study area.
3.2 Research Approach
To achieve the main objective of this study, the researcher will be employing mixed research
approaches (qualitative and quantitative). The reason for choosing to combine the two methods used
to overcome some of the limitations with the use of only one of the approaches, and to increase the
validity of the results.
The research design also uses both descriptive and explanatory research approaches. It will be partly
descriptive because to describes and interprets findings from primary and secondary data. It will
partly explanatory as to tries to evaluate the social and environmental impacts of solid waste disposal
in the study area.
3.3 Method of Data Collection
3.3.1 Sources and Types of data
The researcher will use both primary and secondary data collection methods. The primary data, both
qualitative and quantitative will be collecting through questionnaire, in-depth interview, focus group
discussion and personal observation. Both open and close-ended format questions will design to
obtain information on the impact of climate change and population growth in the study area. The
secondary data will also collect from published and unpublished literatures and responsible bodies
such as books, journal, internet, design document and software, DEM Data, Hydrological Data,
Meteorological data and government policy documents.
Primary and secondary sources of data will be using in this study. Primary data will be gathering
from local communities (households), AAWASA, environmental protection bureau, Ethopian
metrology agency, scavengers, customer of water supply and different sector by using open and
closed-ended questionnaires, through questionnaire, interview and FGD. In an effort to make this
research more valid and worthy, all relevant secondary sources pertinent to study will be reviewing.
These include; published and unpublished materials such as books, journals, design.
Document, magazines, internet, governmental and non-governmental records and archival documents
from Addis water authority office.
Data Collection Instruments
In order to achieve the expecting objectives of this study, the researcher will various data collection
tools. The major data collection instruments are questionnaire, interview, field observation and
personal observation.
Questionnaire
The questionnaire will be conducting to the dwellers, Addis Ababa metrology agency, AAWASA and
environmental protection bureau about 300 questionnaire papers will be distributing to get
information by closed and open questionnaire.
In-depth Interview
The In-depth interviews will develop with intention of getting deep information than what is usually
available from questionnaire surveys. Here, In-depth interview will be making 4 peoples to local
community, individually 2 persons to officials and officers of AWASA, environmental protection
bureau, and Addis Ababa metrology agency.
Focus Group Discussion
In addition to survey and In-depth interview FGD to use as a part of the data collection method to
increase the reliability of data collects by other methods. There are six participants selecting for
discussion.
Personal Observations
Personal observation method involves the physical viewing of what is present and occurring at the
site or geographical location of interest by the researcher. The observable phenomena will physically
feature at the location of study or behaviors of the respondents the researcher intends to study. The
observations can be making and visualize as photographs will take by cameras or will describe if they
are behavior and invisible in physical terms. In this study, the researcher observes the local
community, and visualizes and captures the situations using camera.
3.4 Sampling Methods
3.4.1 Sampling Techniques
In this sub-section researcher is supposed to state which technique of sampling is being adopted, i.e.,
probability sampling or non-probability sampling. After starting the broader sampling technique,
researcher should state sub-category of the chosen sampling technique i.e., simple random sampling,
systematic sampling, stratified sampling, multistage cluster sampling or from non-probability
sampling- quota sampling, convenient sampling, referral or snowball sampling etc. Each sampling
technique used need to be clearly and stated and the procedure of the sampling process as well. In
addition, for each sampling techniques used it is mandatory to state the justification for choosing the
technique considering the objective of the research and the type of the research population.
Population and universe
The target population is the universe of this study in selecting respondents. This universe used in the
formulation and selection of sampling frame, sample size, and unit of analysis. Based on which the
researcher generalizes what the results or findings are. So, the target population of this study is
dwellers or vicinity of the study area whose age is above.
Sampling Frame
Taking all elements of the target population as respondent is difficult mostly due to their large
numbers. In solving this problem, to use different mechanisms/ criteria in selecting representatives
from the target population. Sampling frame is about putting such criteria in order to get representative
samples. In selecting the sample from the target population, and to see the impact of climate change
and population growth, the researcher will take only people who are an age group between 18-65
years.
Sampling unit
The researcher uses individuals who will be selecting through simple random sampling technique
from local community, AAWASA, environmental protection bureau and Addis Ababa metrology
agency.
Sampling procedures
The sampling design adopt for the study is a multi-stage simple random sampling using local
community as primary sampling units. As per the sample design prepare for this survey, vicinity
will be randomly selecting. Then, listing of local community will carry out in the study area by
going from home to home. By assuming, the presence of at least one person in each household,
after counting the number of total household, proportional allocation of sampling for each house
hold will fix. Then, respondents will be approaching by interviewers at their places of residence.
On each household, randomly select respondents will be interviewed using individual
questionnaire. In a case if there is no eligible person in selecting house hold, the next household
will be substituting. If the selecting respondent refuse to respond to the question, he/she will be
considering as a non-respondent. If the selecting respondent will not be finding during the initial
visit, an attempt is making to get him/her and after all will consider as non-respondent.
Sample Size
Sampling involves the selection of a number of study units from a defined study population. The
population is too large for me to consider collecting information from all its members. Instead,
the researcher will be selecting a sample of individuals hoping that the sample is representative
of the population.
For populations that are large and particularly for population where the total population is too
large, unknown or infinite, Kothari (2004) developed the following equation to yield a
representative sample for proportions of large sample.
𝐳2𝐩(1−𝐩)
𝐧= ………………………………………………………………………….. 3.1
𝐞2
Where: -
n is the required sample size,
p is degree of variability,
z is the score value of z-table,
e is the level of precision or marginal error

q is 1-p.
The aim of sampling is to obtain representative respondents who lives around the study area to
investigate their perception concerning to the issue. It is obvious all respondents have similar
perception regarding to the issue. Thus, small number of respondents can represent for large
population. The study will be employing the single population proportion sample size
determination formula. The 50% proportion of health and environmental impact will be using to
obtain the optimum sample size, with 95% Confidence interval, and 5% marginal error. The
sample size will be.
z2p(1 − p)
1.962 ∗ 0.5 × 0.5
n= 2
e
= = 384
0.052
REFERENCES
Abayneh Alemu, (2011). Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Extreme Case study: Addis
Ababa and surrounding catchment, M.Sc. Thesis, Addis Ababa University
Arsiso, Bisrat Kifle; Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu; Stoffberg, Gerrit Hendrik; and Tadesse, Tsegaye,
"Climate change and population growth impacts on surface water supply and demand of Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia" (2017).Drought Mitigation Center Faculty Publications. 130.
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtfacpub/130
Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds., (2008): Climate Change and
Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat,
Geneva, 210 pp
Bergkamp, G., Orlando, B., and Burton, I. (2003) Change: Adaptation of Water Management to
Climate Change. International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Gland
& Cambridge.
Endalkachew Girma, (2012). Climate Change Impact on Surface Water Sources of Addis Ababa
A Case Study in Legedadi-Dire-Gefersa Catchments and Reservoirs, M.Sc. Thesis, Addis Ababa
University.
Mekuria Argaw (PhD), (2009). The Role of Higher Education in adapting to Climate and
Ecosystems Change: The case in Ethiopian context, Addis Ababa University Environmental
Science Program, Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre and Network (HoAREC/N,
Ethiopia Ministry of Water, Irrigation & Energy, (January 31, 2006). Urban Water Supply
Design Criteria, Water Resources Administration, Urban Water Supply and Sanitation
Department, Addis Ababa.
SEURECA, (2006). Feasibility Study of Legedadi River Surface Water Potential, Addis Ababa
T. Abebe, “Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia.

2007.
Tahel and Metaferia Consulting Engineers (2000). Bathymetric Survey of Legedadi and Gefersa
Reservoirs and Master Plan Studies for Legedadi, Dire and Gefersa Catchment Areas
Annex A: Ethical Consideration

In conducting this study, the researchers make sure that they observe some proper ways of
communicating with the respondents. The researchers make sure that the residents are properly
informed and participated willingly in the study. This study will show no harm to the
environment and to the locals, the researchers also value the security and confidentiality of the
respondents. The gathering data will be used and applied in the research, without exposing any
gathering data outside the project, and are reasonable, credible, and valid. The researchers will
make sure to maintain relationship with the respondents for the updates in the project.
Annex B Tentative schedule of study
Time table (Period of Accomplishment)
June
No. Tasks to be performed March 2023 April 2023 May 2023 2023
Week Week Week 1 Week
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
1 Proposal writing
2 Questionnaire preparation
Distribution of the
questionnaire to selected
3 respondents
Collection of the
4 questionnaire
Interview to selected
5 respondents
6 Analysis of collected data
7 Submission of first draft
8 Submission of second draft
9 Submission of final thesis
Annex C: Budget Breakdown
R.N Measurement/ price/ Total
Item Quantity
o Unit Unit price
1 Paper packed 2 700 1400
2 Pen Pc 10 15 150
3 Pencil Pc 5 8 40
Envelop to
4 Pc 10 10 100
questionnaire
5 Paper writing per page 200 15 3,000
6 Copy per page 1000 (5x200) 3 3,000
Orientation fee for
7 per hour 5 individuals x 1 hr. 500 25,000
data collectors
transport fee for data 5 individuals x 5
8 per individual 200 5,000
collectors days
Coffee program (on
9 per individual 10 375 2,500
the interview)
Sub Total 1826 17,690
Contingency 15% 273.90 2,653.50
Grand Total 2,099.90 20,343.50

After First Draft Comment by MR Anteneh

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

After First Draft Comment by MR Anteneh

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Assessment of climate change impacts of legedadi water

reservoir using weap tools.(AAWSA)Ethiopia

ETHIOPIAN CIVIL SERVICE UNIVERSITY

College: Urban Planning and Engineering

Department: Environmental and Climate Change Management

Assessment of climate change impacts of legedadi water

SEMAGN AGASH ID.

A Thesis Submitted to the Weekend Program College of Urban Planning and

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

The aim of this study is to evaluate Assessment of climate change impacts of

legedadi water reservoir of Addis Ababa.

FGD Focus Group Discussion

DCM: Digital Circulation Model

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

NMSA: National Meteorological Service Agency

AAWSA Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority

GIS Geographical Information System

 Is there any climate change impact on the legedadi water reservoir?

 Is there any climate change impact on hydrological parameters (run off,

2.6 Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

n is the required sample size,

z is the score value of z-table,

e is the level of precision or marginal error

T. Abebe, “Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia.

Annex A: Ethical Consideration

Contingency 15% 273.90 2,653.50

Grand Total 2,099.90 20,343.50

You might also like