The Ten Biggest Lies

in Project Controls
BY GLEN PALMER, CFCC PSP AND CHRIS CARSON, CEP DRMP PSP FAACE

ABSTRACT
While misinformation and poor schedule analysis conclusions can plague construction
managers, some of the analysis and reporting problems are significant enough that
they rise to the level of “lies.” Understanding the most frequently encountered lies will
N OV E M BE R/ DEC E M BE R 2 01 8

help construction managers and owners to better understand when there is a need to
examine the analysis or schedule review reports at a much deeper level. This article will
discuss the ten biggest lies in project controls that the authors have encountered over
the course of their careers. These lies will be examined using “lessons learned” from
both a project management and a claims perspective. This perspective should provide
a deeper understanding of the principal areas of schedule analysis and prepare the CM
or owner to better question and review the statements. This article was first presented
as CSC.2436 at the 2017 AACE International Annual Meeting.
6
INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND
This article will discuss the ten biggest lies in project controls that
the authors have encountered in their careers. These lies will be
examined using “lessons learned” from both a project management
and a claims perspective.
The authors of this article have more than 75 years of experience in
the engineering and construction industries. They have seen the execution
of many successful and many unsuccessful projects. This combined
experience has shown both authors that some project management
teams will say almost anything to try to convince their superiors or their
clients of an untruth. The authors will offer some techniques to assist the
identification of these untruths.
The 10 biggest lies are discussed herein in an ascending order of
importance, but the authors believe that it is very important for a CM or
owner to be able to quickly recognize all 10.
BIGGEST LIE NO. 10
“There is no float buried in the
construction schedule”
On several occasions in the authors’ experience, a construction contractor
has stated that the schedule had been prepared aggressively with no
float or time contingency buried or hidden in the schedule. The following
important discussion points will be analyzed in detail regarding some of
the approaches used in hiding float in a schedule.
IMPORTANT DISCUSSION POINTS
• Level III versus Level IV schedules
• Critical and near critical activities
• Is having float in the schedule a “bad” thing?
DETAILED DISCUSSION POINTS
1. Level IV – If the construction schedule is prepared at a level IV and
is resource loaded or resource driven, it is more difficult to identify
buried float because the unit rates/worker-hours are frequently
inflated to bury the time.
2. Level III – In a level III schedule, where the project is less detailed,
float it often buried by making every critical and near critical activity
have durations in equivalent construction work weeks, which is
done by rounding each duration up to the next full work week. This
allows one to bury float or time contingency (see Figure 1).
3. Level III – Another way to bury float in a Level III schedule is to use
larger value lags on a start-to-start lag, which show the successor
activity starting later than needed and thereby buries float or time
contingency (see Figure 2).
4. Float or Time Contingency – Technically buried time in a schedule
is time contingency because float is a calculated value by the CPM
network, but when time is buried in the schedule it is essentially
hidden float.
5. Is having float buried in a construction schedule “bad” or wrong? –
Complex projects with long duration schedules (more than
two years) require float/contingency to have an opportunity to
successfully complete on time. The industry needs to recognize this
and use an approach that is fair and transparent.
IMPORTANT ADVICE
Adopt a scheduling approach that allows the incorporation of float or time
contingency into the schedule in a manner that makes it transparent. This
could be done using risk management to identify activities, or even groups
of common trade work, that are unlikely to achieve the planned durations,
assessing the need, and increasing the durations appropriately. The same
could be done with the sequencing, particularly with respect to parallel
critical paths that may or may not be difficult to achieve. Other appropriate
approaches can be found in the AACE International Recommended
Practice No. 70R-12, “Principles of Schedule Contingency Management” [5].
BIGGEST LIE NO. 9
“Resource loading is too much trouble and
doesn’t provide value to the project”
Resource loading relates to the assignment of the relevant resources to
each activity as appropriate. Commonly, contract documents require
the contractor to provide a resource loaded Critical Path Method (CPM)
schedule. Resource loading can be labor hours, materials units, and/
or cost, but our discussion herein involves labor hours or crew hours,
sometimes shown in labor days or crew days.
Many contracts require resource loading in the project schedule, but
it is not uncommon for the contractors to recommend elimination of this
requirement and for the owner to concede, even though the requirement
was originally specified by the owner. The argument is typically made that
it is too difficult to include the resources in each activity and there is little
value to doing so.
FIGURE 1 Rounded Durations
Hiding Float, Created by Primavera
Project Manager (P3) Version 3.1.
Created by Primavera Project
Manager (P3) Version 3.1.
FIGURE 2 Large Start-to-Start Lag
COS T E N G IN E E RI NG
Values, Created by Primavera
Project Manager (P3) Version 3.1.
7
 IMPORTANT DISCUSSION POINTS In addition, a schedule that does not include the use of appropriate
Activity durations can be calculated or estimated by taking the quantity and available resources is not a true CPM schedule because it fails to
times the estimated labor productivity, or production per day. model the field conditions. If the resources are not available, the durations
cannot be met. Failure to supply resources as planned is at the heart of
Production Rate x Quantity = Duration many disputes so it is important to ensure that appropriate resource
Equation 1 assignments are used to develop a schedule. Resource loading is one good
way to document the planned resources required to meet the schedule
Since material quantities can generally be calculated accurately, the project duration.
variable part of this equation is the estimate of labor productivity which is Another reason why contractors are wary of and therefore reluctant
far more subjective. Since labor is the driver of the estimate, understanding to load resources is that often the loading is not accurate enough to
the planned resources is vital to validating durations. It is in the owner’s accommodate the field conditions. An example of this would be concrete
and the project’s best interests to ensure accurate duration estimates. grade beams. The schedule will have an activity such as, “Strip Grade
Beam Formwork Area A” with an Original Duration (OD) of four days,
Achieved Production Rate x Quantity = Performance followed by the successor of “Form Grade Beam Area B” with an OD of 10
Equation 2 days, followed by the next successor of “Form Grade Beam Area C” with
an OD of 12 days. The resources might include 10 workers per day for
Analysis of performance is more than just identifying delays and date each activity. From the schedule in Figure 3, the resources required per
slippages, it is also performance improvement analysis. This requires week start with 400 hours for the first five weeks and then 80 hours for
calculation and evaluation of actual versus planned performance/ the final week.
expenditure of resources and can be enhanced by analysis of the But a typical scenario is that after two days of the Strip GB Formwork
combination of labor resource loading and cost resource loading to Area A activity, half of the workers move to the next activity, the Form
evaluate performance and efficiency of performance. GB Area B, and start work. Then with now 15 workers forming grade
beams, ten of those workers move
on the 6th day to the last activity,
Form GB Area C, and finish in six
days. From this revised schedule,
shown in Figure 4, working out-of-
sequence from the original logic,
now the resource need is 560 hours
for the first week, 720 hours for the
second week, 560 hours for the
third week, and 240 hours for the
fourth week.
However, the plan reduces
the number of workers on the
predecessor activities when they
move to the successor activities,
which renders the original resource
loading inaccurate. To keep the
FIGURE 3 Inaccurate Resource Loading as Planned, Created by Primavera P6 Professional, R 8.3.2 schedule and resources accurate,
the activities would need to be
subdivided into more activities, so
they can support the number of
workers, which requires a lot more
maintenance effort for something
that the field staff adjusts on almost
every activity throughout the
project. But this example explains
the logic in the industry as to why
resource loading is not useful.
One of the authors of this article
N OV E M BE R/ DEC E M BE R 2 01 8

was asked to evaluate a dispute

arising from this type of problem
where the General Contractor
(GC) had hundreds of workers
performing concrete work on a
concrete frame library structure.
The Construction Manager (CM)
FIGURE 4 Inaccurate Resource Loading as Actually Performed Out-of-Sequence, compared the planned individual
Created by Primavera P6 Professional, R 8.3.2 resources shown in the schedule
8
with the actual headcount of workers on the project and found that the
schedule appeared to call for several hundred more workers than were
present on site. Although there were problems with the drawings that
caused the project to fall behind, the CM determined that the entire
performance problem was the result of the GC failing to staff the project.
It took a detailed demonstration similar to the schedules shown earlier in
this article to convince the CM that the proper number of workers were
present on the project.
DETAILED DISCUSSION POINTS
Resource loading can be performed for a variety of resources, from labor
hours to crew hours to materials quantities to costs. Resources related
to labor can be loaded as individual resources, like Mary Smith, separate
roles, like carpenters, or crew resources, like an electrical crew, composed
of individual roles and resources.
The value of the type of resources loaded is dependent upon the
type of project. Engineering and architecture projects use individual
resources effectively, as each will undertake specific scopes of work
and there are a limited number of workers to monitor. Projects which
have large volumes of work, such as shipbuilding or large engineering
efforts, which can be performed by categories of personnel, can use roles
effectively. And projects which have multiple contractors, trades, and
different compositions of crews, like a roadways, bridges or buildings, can
use crew resource monitoring effectively. The typical construction project
is built by a prime contractor with dozens or more of subcontractors
performing many trades. It can be very difficult for the prime to gather the
role resources used by all subcontractors, and almost impossible to gather
individual resources.
When the discussion refers to individual resources, it makes sense that
contractors believe that resource loading is too much trouble and doesn’t
provide value. Owners that require individual resources would find less
resistance by changing to the use of roles or crews.
Crew resources is a simplified effort, requiring an understanding
of the type of work handled by each type of crew, along with the crew
composition. So, a crew might be a drywall crew, and the composition
might be a foreman, one journeyman, two apprentices, and four laborers,
or four hangers, two finishers, and four laborers. If the resources are
loaded by crew, it is easy enough to use that information to calculate the
number of each role on the project. The individual composition of the
roles, whether young, old, right-handed or left-handed, women, or men,
is not an important piece of information, as long as the contractor is
responsible for the performance and the productivity is equal to or better
than the planned productivity that was used to calculate the durations.
This use of crew resources can be much simpler, less prone to error and
provide valuable insight into planned and actual production. While loading
of resource role descriptions can be helpful, if it appears to be too much
effort for the contractor, the use of crew resources can be just as useful.
For the baseline schedule, the contractor can identify the crews
needed for each type of activity, based on trade, and load one crew/day in
each activity, accompanied by a definition of that crew composition. For
update schedules, the crews should already exist in the schedule and the
contractor can provide a report on the actual crew use. The actual crew use
can be monitored against the plan, and the composition can be compared
to the original plan in the Baseline Schedule Narrative. The narrative can
be similar to or a version of the Basis of Schedule, addressed in detail in
the AACE International Recommended Practice 38R-06, “Documenting
the Schedule Basis” [3].
The analysis of resources based on simple crew loading can include:
• Performance analysis – resource consumption vs. planned use
• Inefficiency analysis – resource productivity at activity level vs. planned
• Delay analysis – change order resource consumption vs. contract
consumption
In addition, crew resource analysis can help to control the risks of both
similar and dissimilar trade stacking and space overloading.
IMPORTANT ADVICE
The information needed to effectively use resource loading includes;
baseline planned resources, monthly look-ahead revised resources, and
actual resources consumed. The monthly look-ahead revised resource
report is useful as it allows the short interim planning to identify the more
detailed use of resources.
With crews loaded in the schedule, the crew count average and peak
loading can be reviewed for reasonableness in the baseline schedule. In
the updates, the planned average and peak can be reviewed again for
reasonableness, and the actual resource consumption can be compared
to plan. If the project performance is struggling, this analysis can help
determine if it is a result of under-allocation of resources and will encourage
the contractor to increase the resources on the project as necessary.
When a contractor complains that resource loading is not worth the
time, it’s probably the type of resources that are required to be loaded.
Resource loading in the form of roles or crews can be performed without
too much trouble, and it can provide immense value to the project by
providing the ability to monitor the use of resources.
BIGGEST LIE NO. 8
“The Project can achieve 10%
construction progress in one month”
The authors have both been involved in many claims where large projects
were required to make 10% construction progress in one or more months
to maintain the project schedule. Clearly, a small project can achieve this
amount of progress easily, but as the project’s craft worker-hour total
increases above a certain point, it is no longer possible to achieve this level
of progress. The following important discussion points will be analyzed in
detail regarding achieving 10% construction progress.
IMPORTANT DISCUSSION POINTS
• Size of the project
• Work force capabilities
• Modularization
• Increased “safety” emphasis
• Feeding the machine
DETAILED DISCUSSION POINTS
1. Size of the project – When a project has 500,000 craft worker-hours
or more, it becomes increasingly difficult in the US to achieve 10%
progress in a month; unlike other parts of the world where this
occurs all the time (in places where labor is cheap, and productivity
and safety are not big concerns, this happens with regularity).
2. Work force capabilities – The construction work force is aging and
COS T E N G IN E E RI NG
that, coupled with less training available from most union halls, is
making the force work force less capable.
3. Modularization – Modularization moves a portion of the work off-site
and into the hands of a well-trained and highly specialized work
force, which enhances the ability to make 10% per month on a
“schedule driven” project but generally results in higher costs.
9
 4. Increased safety emphasis –The US has a much higher emphasis on
safety than in most other countries and it is undeniable that this
impacts construction productivity.
5. Procurement of Material/Feeding the machine – As projects get larger
and the work force increases, it gets more and more difficult to keep
the material supply chain working successfully so that the work
force can be productive.
FIGURE 5 Actual Earned Value Curve from a Refinery Expansion Project,
Created by Primavera Project Manager (P3) Version 3.1.
Figure 5 is an actual curve from a large refinery expansion project. Six
of the last seven months of the project require 10% progress or more for
construction to meet the plan, as noted with the red circle in Figure 5. This
project had approximately one million craft work hours and highlights
the difficulty in making that kind of progress. The plan is completely
unachievable, not only because of the need to make 10% or more over
the course of several months, but this required progress is all at the end
of the project where the system completion work occurs. This is when
the progress slows down dramatically. In the end, the highest progress
percentage that occurred on this project was 5.9%, which is about half of
the planned peak of monthly percentages.
IMPORTANT ADVICE
When a contractor submits a percent complete curve with one or more
months requiring 10% construction progress to support the project plan –
pay attention and challenge that curve’s viability.
BIGGEST LIE NO. 7
N OV E M BE R/ DEC E M BE R 2 01 8
“A detailed Design-Build Schedule is
impossible until the design is complete”
Design-Build (DB), and the similar Public-Private-Partnership, has slowly
grown in popularity and use in the industry, particularly with owners who
want to shift more of the design and coordination risk onto the contractor.
DB allows the projects to start earlier, provides the collaboration of design
10
and construction that is often missing, and promotes fast tracking to start
and complete projects earlier. However, many DB contractors will start the
project without any reasonable schedule and take the position that they
cannot provide a detailed schedule on design-build until the design is
complete. This can be a problem because it reduces the ability to monitor
the early stages of administration and construction, which conceals a slow
take-off for the project allowing work to be artificially pushed later in the
project. A detailed schedule is vital
in the early stages of DB projects
to ensure that the fast-track nature
doesn’t allow the loss of valuable
and irreplaceable time.
IMPORTANT
DISCUSSION POINTS
Shortened construction time is
promoted as a huge advantage
of Design-Build (DB) over other
project delivery types, particularly
Design-Bid-Build (DBB). According
to a study by Konchar & Sanvido,
design-build is “33% faster than
DBB” and “23.5% faster than
construction management” [7].
Even recognizing this benefit,
DB contractors often take the
position that they cannot provide
a detailed schedule until design is
complete, which can be as much as
30% into the construction effort.
DETAILED
DISCUSSION POINTS
Most DB projects are contracted at firm-fixed price, and budgets are
committed at the early stages of design development, often 30% design
completion or less. To agree to a fixed price, the contractor must fully
understand the scope of work and many of them have developed detailed
line item estimates to establish the definition of the scope.
If a contractor understands the scope of work for a project well enough
to produce a line item estimate, then they understand it well enough to
produce a detailed schedule. The estimate establishes both quantities and
production rates, so the activity durations are easily calculated. The next
need to develop the schedule is to establish the sequencing of construction,
but most contractors have also established the sequencing and often have
developed a high-level schedule to estimate the field overhead and general
conditions based on the project duration.
In addition to the availability of detailed information, since DB
project delivery requires that the contractor engages the designer, the
contractor has full access to that designer, and therefore can influence
the design sequencing.
The project schedule is the primary coordination tool, as well as the
communication tool, so without a schedule in place early the project is
being managed without that primary tool. Construction management is
left to flounder and maybe, worse, as the project is started, unforeseen
conditions can be discovered but not easily analyzed. It takes a good,
detailed CPM schedule to enable credible and detailed evaluation of
delays. Without the ability to support delay analysis, additional scope and
unforeseen conditions would be absorbed into the contractor’s schedule
and ultimately the scope of work. Without the detailed early schedule, the
project is at a higher risk of failure.
 Considering contractor performance alone, FIGURE 6 Examine
it requires good monitoring of the schedule to Reasonableness of
Critical Path, Created
ensure that critical path, near-critical path, and by Primavera Project
non-critical path work is advancing at a rate Manager (P3) Version
that is commensurate with completion on time. 3.1.
Allowing work that is unmonitored to slip will
lower the quality of the future schedule (the
as-planned portion) and raise the risk of cost
overruns, quality problems, and late completion.

IMPORTANT ADVICE
It is important to require a detailed schedule
early in the process and use it for updating and
monitoring the project. There should be no
excuse as it is vital for the success of the project.
This is not to say that it is simple to develop
a detailed schedule based on incomplete
documents, as well as preliminary investigation
of the site conditions. A good approach to
takes this into account is to allow or require
a preliminary schedule with detailed short- FIGURE 7 (ABOVE)
interim details sufficient to handle planning and Examine High Float
Values, Created by
monitoring, and a secondary expanded schedule Primavera Project
as design is advanced. Manager (P3) Version
This preliminary schedule must still provide 3.1.
at least a reasonable summary schedule
developed for the entire project, at a level of FIGURE 8 (LEFT)
Worker Histogram,
detail sufficient to ensure coordination. The Created by Primavera
detailed full schedule cannot wait until full Project Manager (P3)
design, so should be provided prior to the work, Version 3.1.
but can be revised as needed to ensure flexibility.
This multiple submission approach can ensure
that a good, realistic schedule is in place to
manage the project and benchmark the plan.
As a note of caution, some contractors
attempt to use a “rolling wave” scheduling effort,
which is often interpreted as a short-interim
schedule that only plans for the immediate short-
interim future. The project schedule must
incorporate the full scope of work, from beginning to end of the project. DETAILED DISCUSSION POINTS
The rolling wave effort can be used to further detail the short-interim plan 7. Critical path and near critical paths – Do the critical and near critical
but should not be used to replace a detailed schedule, in the single or dual paths make sense? If the project involves building a large process
submission model. plant and piping is not on the critical path, that should raise a flag
(see Figure 6).
8. High float values – One of the weakest aspects of scheduling today is
BIGGEST LIE NO. 6 the lack of evaluating high float values, which usually occur due to
a lack of a successor logic tie and therefore undermines the accuracy
“The entire schedule has been of the entire schedule (see Figure 7).
analyzed and validated” Figure 7 s an actual schedule from a project and is the first
schedule issued from the general contractor after the signing of the
One of the biggest problems in the industry today is the poor quality of contract. The project is a 30-month fast track project with 797 days
project schedules, which are intended to guide the execution of complex of float on more than 50 activities.
projects. The authors have been involved in multiple claims which include a 9. Crew staffing curves – Does the cumulative curve created by the
poorly prepared project schedule. The following important discussion points worker histogram have peaks and valleys all over the place or is it
COS T E N G IN E E RI NG

are intended to be some of the major issues to check for a schedule’s quality. reasonably bell shaped (see Figure 8)?
Figure 8 is an actual worker histogram from a project and
IMPORTANT DISCUSSION POINTS shows a very unrealistic worker curve. It is highly unlikely that
• Critical path and near critical paths the project management team is going to staff the project as shown
• High float values in this curve.
• Crew staffing curves
11
 IMPORTANT ADVICE
Do not take someone’s word that a schedule has
been analyzed and validated; review it! For the
baseline schedule review, an excellent resource is
the AACE International Recommended Practice
No. 78R-13, “Original Baseline Schedule Review”
[6].

BIGGEST LIE NO. 5

FIGURE 9 Most Influence Over Change - Arcadis Global Construction Disputes
“All the delay is the
responsibility of one party” the resolution. It is not unusual for a prospective delay that was identified
while the delay was still predicted to take so long to resolve that the
As complicated as most construction projects are, it should come as no delay is absorbed into the project. At that point, the issue becomes more
surprise that most delays are comprised of multiple issues that created complicated and the resolution requires a forensic schedule analysis. Note
or affected the delays. This is reinforced by studies, one of which shows that this is akin to work that is done without a cost change order; once the
that the primary cause of changes in both 2014 and 2015 was “Failure to work is done, it is no longer appropriate to estimate the costs of the work
properly administer the contract” [1]. See figure 9 for the top five causes. when there is information available to document the actual costs. Absorbed
In addition to the complexity of projects, project delivery methods, and delays require a good audit of the lost time to analyze appropriately.
contracts, the cause of uncertainty with greatest impact to the schedule Once the delay has been identified and entitlement is recognized,
varies according to the stakeholder. For example, an industry study by there is still the issue of assigning responsibility for the delay. One might
McGraw Hill Construction found that one cause of uncertainty was that of, argue that this step should come before the entitlement discussion, and
“owner program or design change” [8], and the percentage of stakeholders indeed the responsibility might be assigned during the contract and scope
who agreed included; 14% of owners, 31% of architects, and 20% of discussion that determines entitlement. This assignment of responsibility
contractors. This difference of opinion indicates how hard it could be to often starts by identifying who “owns” the source of the delay, but the
gain agreement on the source of a delay. delay could have been caused by other factors or issues. Sorting this out
requires knowledge of the contemporaneous project documents, or a
IMPORTANT DISCUSSION POINTS detailed research into those documents. While the CM team should be in
Considering that there are significant challenges to the assignment of the best position to follow the actual project sequencing, which might not
responsibility for delay, it should come as no surprise to anyone that be visible in the schedule, to the source of the delay, there are also biases
rarely does one party bear all the responsibility. There is a process, or among the CM team that could impede this effort. There are commonly
a string of events, that must be followed to arrive at the conclusion of one or more driving issues that created the delay to the schedule activities,
assignment of responsibility. which the industry calls “causal activities.” This is a bit of a misnomer
The first step in delay discussion is the identification or recognition as the schedule activity is usually the impacted activity rather than the
of the delay, the second step entails the verification of entitlement, and cause of delay. This research becomes very important and can be time-
the third step allows assignment of responsibility. So, after a delay has consuming but is often the source of disputes and continuing failure to
been identified and investigated, there must be a contractual basis for a resolve the disputes.
contractor to “earn” the excusable delay, and after that the responsibility An example of the driving issues that impact the schedule activities
can be evaluated and determined. was experienced by one of the authors several years ago on a delay claim.
The causal activity of delay shown in the schedule was the masonry
DETAILED DISCUSSION POINTS wall in a high school gymnasium. At first glance, there appeared to be
There are challenges to each of these steps. For example, identifying delays a performance issue because the masons halted work on that wall in
requires a well-maintained schedule so it can be demonstrated that the the middle of hunting season, and the crew(s) had limited supervision.
delay affected the project completion milestone. However, it also takes However, after research into the driving issues, it was discovered that
strong scheduling skills and a good understanding of forensic schedule the wall was halted as a result of missing steel bearing plates (appearing
analysis to perform the analysis and demonstrate the delay. Delays can to be responsibility of the structural steel erector), which was a result of
be predicted delays or delays that have already been absorbed into the revised shop drawings (appearing to be responsibility of the structural
project and schedule. Future delays are analyzed by modeling the delay steel fabricator), which was because of changes in bar joists size and
using accepted industry best practices in a process called the Time Impact locations (appearing to be the responsibility of the owner), which was
Analysis (TIA) [4]. These are estimates, because they are predictions, and because of changes to roof mounted mechanical equipment (appearing
N OV E M BE R/ DEC E M BE R 2 01 8

while subjective, a careful implementation of the TIA process should yield
reasonable results. However, for delays that have already been absorbed
into the project and schedule, there are actual dates, durations, and
activities having resource consumption to help identify the delays.
The second step, recognizing entitlement, requires a good
understanding of the contract and the full scope of work. Often, the
Construction Manager (CM) or Project Manager (PM) does not have the
right combination of contract and scope knowledge, and that can create
misunderstandings in the entitlement discussion, which then will delay
12
that it could be either the owner or the mechanical contractor). Ultimately,
the changes to the mechanical equipment were a request from the owner
to the engineer and then to the architect, who communicated them to the
structural engineer who issued a revision to the structural steel bar joists
and bearing plates. Sometimes multiple-responsibility issues require a
concurrent delay analysis of the driving issues to establish what impacted
the non-concurrent schedule activity delay. All these complications tend to
slow down the resolution of the delays, often becoming forensic schedule
analysis issues and therefore harder to resolve.
IMPORTANT ADVICE
There are several steps that can be
taken to improve the ability to
resolve delays:

• Providing clear requirements

for analysis of delay in the
contract that treat absorbed
delays differently from FIGURE 10 Strange or Odd Lag Values
predicted delays for support of
identification of delay
◦◦ Reference AACE RP
#52R-06 “Time Impact
Analysis” for predicted
delays [4]
◦◦ Reference AACE RP
#29R-03 “Forensic
Schedule Analysis” for
FIGURE 11 Changing Lag Values in Current Update, Created by Primavera Project Manager (P3) Version 3.1.
absorbed delays [2]
• Embrace strong technical
scheduling with
knowledgeable schedulers
using high quality schedules
• Consult forensic schedule
analysis experts to quickly
resolve absorbed delays
• Include contract specialists,
such as the CM, PM,
Quantity Surveyor (QS),
project engineer, or contract FIGURE 12 Original Lag Values to be Manipulated, Created by Primavera Project Manager (P3) Version 3.1.
or procurement manager,
to resolve entitlement
determinations
• Ensure detailed high-quality
project documentation for
support of assignment of
responsibility

BIGGEST LIE
NO. 4 FIGURE 13 Future Activities With Changed Durations Forced Onto Critical Path, Created by Primavera Project
Manager (P3) Version 3.1.

“The schedule dates/
critical paths have not been manipulated”
The manipulation of project schedules is quite prevalent in the engineering
and construction industry, whether it be to highlight a certain critical path
or force a stakeholder into doing something that he/she would otherwise
not do. The following important discussion points are intended to show
some of the warning signs that a schedule is being manipulated.
IMPORTANT DISCUSSION POINTS
• Owner/client suddenly appears on the critical path
client’s activities appear on the critical path soon after the project
starts to fall behind schedule it is imperative to check the schedule
for manipulation
2. Strange or odd lag values – If a lag has a strange value it suggests that
some intentional calculation has been involved in its determination
when it may simply be a casual change in value (see Figure 10).
The value is “17”; not 15 or 20, but an odd value of 17.
3. Changing lag values – If a lag has a different value in a subsequent
update it suggests manipulation (see Figure 11
The value changed from 17 in the previous update to 23 in the
current update.
COS T E N G IN E E RI NG

• Strange/changing lag values
• Unexplained decreased activity durations
• Identifying manipulation issues by use of software analysis tools
DETAILED DISCUSSION POINTS
1. Owner/client suddenly appears on the critical path – If the owner or
4. Decreased activity durations – If there are future work activities
that are critical or near critical where the durations have changed
(usually shortened) this again suggests manipulation (see Figures
12 and 13).
The original duration value is 30 days.
In a subsequent update the value is now 22 days.
13
 5. Schedule Analyzer, Claim Digger, and Acumen Fuse
– These types of software programs can assist in
detecting manipulation by identifying the changes
between two different schedule files, evaluating
schedule component usage against heuristics
developed by the analyst, and discovering problems
with schedule settings.

IMPORTANT ADVICE
Analyze, analyze again, and then challenge any questionable
methodologies before the process goes too far.

BIGGEST LIE NO. 3

“Our plan has not changed significantly; FIGURE 14 Resource Plan Showing Updates And Crew Needs As A Result of Failure
we’ve only made minor adjustments” to Meet Plan, Created by Primavera Project Manager (P3) Version 3.1.

Many projects find that the planned work is not completed

within the periods predicted, and this necessitates
modifications to the schedule. And even if the planned work
is completed, field management can make many decisions
that affect a good schedule model of that field plan.

IMPORTANT DISCUSSION POINTS

Most claims have some component that was caused by a
failure to meet the plan, whether the baseline schedule or the
previous update schedule. Often the solution to this failure is
to make minor adjustments to the as-planned portion of the
schedule, spreading out the changes so that they seem minor.
However, it is in everyone’s best interest to ensure that the
original plan is attainable and is pursued aggressively during
each reporting period. Since the schedule is merely a model of
FIGURE 15 Resource Plan Showing Significant Shifting to Planned Crew Use, Created
the field plan, both must align; changes to help the alignment by Microsoft Office 365 Pro Plus version 1701
must be reasonable and transparent.

DETAILED DISCUSSION POINTS

While the failure to meet plan could be a one-time problem, but repeated
re-planning efforts tend to conceal lack of performance and even
occasionally owner-caused delays. Any lack of performance will need to be
mitigated later in the project, and that can easily increase resource needs.
Repeated failures to meet planned results indicate that the schedule is less
than accurate and will not be enough to provide predictions of completion,
trending analysis, or be the basis for analysis of delay. Repeated minor
adjustments can accumulate to huge risks in the future, as-planned portion
of the schedule.
Failure to meet plan means the planned resources did not complete
the scope and can result in a significant increase to required planned FIGURE 16 Comparison Between Progress-Only and Full Update Critical
resources during the subsequent period(s). This can happen during a Paths, Created by Microsoft Office 365 Pro Plus version 1701
single update period, as shown in Figure 14.
Repeated failures to meet plan, as shown in Figure 15, will often shift In addition to the resource planning issues related to failure to meet
N OV E M BE R/ DEC E M BE R 2 01 8

the need for resources to later in the project, which may appear reasonable
at first, but will quickly reduce the viability of the future, as-planned
schedule. Those resources, after adjustments have been made period
after period, can wind up planned for usage near the very end of the
project. Mitigating the delays caused by the failure to meet plan reflects an
unidentified lack of performance. These mitigation actions are commonly
made by the scheduler or PM without the input from other stakeholders
such as subcontractors or suppliers. After several periods of adjustments,
these logic changes can be massive.
14
plan, the critical path calculated by the update plan is usually very different
from the critical path of the original schedule. This half-step, or progress
only update is determined by importing the progress from the subsequent
update into the previous update and comparing performance using the
same data date. The shifting of the critical path can take the CM team by
surprise and create mid-period critical path shifts, not monitored by the
CM team, that are often the source of delays (see Figure 16).
This can make the identification of the driving issues and causal
activities for delay very difficult.
IMPORTANT ADVICE
Ensure an achievable baseline schedule by reviewing crew
resources for reasonable concurrency and provide a high-quality
review to catch issues that could result in critical path shifts.
Bifurcate the update analysis (using a half-step, or
progress only update) so that performance can be evaluated
against plan and then evaluate the logic changes made in
adjustments to mitigate performance (or owner-caused)
failure separately.
FIGURE 17 Lack of Detail with Long Duration Activities, Created by
Encourage the contractor to make all minor adjustments Primavera P6 Professional, R 8.3.2
transparent and with the goal to better model the plan and
analyze to monitor for hidden mitigation.

BIGGEST LIE NO. 2

“The project is on schedule”
On several occasions in the authors’ experience, a
construction contractor has told them that the schedule had
been prepared aggressively with no float or time contingency
buried or hidden in the schedule. The following important FIGURE 18 Schedule with No Baseline Comparison, Created by
discussion points will be analyzed in detail regarding some of Primavera Project Manager (P3) Version 3.1.
the approaches used in hiding float in a schedule.

IMPORTANT DISCUSSION POINTS

• Lack of schedule detail
• Baseline schedule comparison
• Questionable updating process
• Schedule sequence deviations
• Project management issues

DETAILED DISCUSSION POINTS

1. Lack of schedule detail – A lack of schedule detail will impact
anyone’s ability to accurate determine schedule progress
and will bring guessing into play (see Figure 17). FIGURE 19 Schedule Showing Baseline Comparison, Created by
It can be very difficult to status an activity that Primavera Project Manager (P3) Version 3.1.
spans more than four months.
2. Baseline schedule comparison – It is amazing how few project
schedules reviewed by the authors show a baseline or target
schedule comparison, whereby the team can look at not just where
IMPORTANT ADVICE
they are but where they are supposed to be (see Figures 18 and 19).
Don’t accept that a project is on schedule without performing due diligence.
The schedule in Figure 18 gives no clue about the status of the
project other than a critical path with zero days of float.
The schedule in Figure 19 shows the team exactly where they
are compared to where they planned to be.
BIGGEST LIE NO. 1
3. Questionable updating process – A true schedule updating process “The project has only slipped by four days”
should be “quantitative” and not qualitative.
Each activity needs to be updated based on: a calculation or A common response from contractors is that the project has only slipped
evaluation of work performed against total scope of work rather by a small amount so there is no reason for concern. This would be a valid
than simply reducing the original duration based on time expended point if the slippage was a one-time slippage, identified and documented
which could be inaccurate. so steps could be taken to prevent later duplication.
4. Schedule Sequence Deviations – If the project team ignores the
planned sequence of work then there will be no accurate way of IMPORTANT DISCUSSION POINTS
COS T E N G IN E E RI NG

determining the schedule status and if the approach continues, the Single period critical and near-critical path analysis, while vital, will reveal
schedule becomes a useless tool only immediate delay concerns. Equally important is the issue of trending
5. Project management issues – There are PMs who are unqualified to identify the ramifications of the single period delays if they continue in
because of a lack of training in scheduling. There are also those that multiple or all periods. Analysis of trending problems can be time-consuming,
are dishonest when it comes to updating a schedule, leading to an especially if there is no direction from a strong analysis procedure.
inaccurate reporting of schedule status
15
 DETAILED
DISCUSSION POINTS
It is important to examine all
critical and near-critical path delays
to determine if they will likely occur
again in future periods. While non-
critical path delays may not affect
the immediate schedule completion
predictions, they could have huge
consequences in the future.
Failure to identify trending
delays will allow them to be
amplified in later periods, often
beyond the ability to mitigate.
These delays should be examined
to determine if they are caused
by schedule logic, resources or
productivity, or perhaps a single
trade contractor weak performance.
The question that must be
considered is if there is any reason
to believe that the single delay will FIGURE 20 Trending Tool - Float Dissipation or Erosion of Float Graph,
never happen again, in which case Created by Primavera Project Manager (P3) Version 3.1.
it could be ignored. However, this is
rarely the case, especially in linear
projects like bridges or roadways,
utilities or piping installations, or
vertical towers or condominiums.
There are multiple tools for
trending analysis, including float
dissipation (also known as erosion
of float), missed starts and finishes,
Time Performance Ratio (TPR),
crew resource over-allocation, and
earned value management. High
quality schedules can rely on float
dissipation, but if the schedules are
missing logic or scope, the value of
float dissipation is much reduced.
But, it is still is a reasonable
approach to monitoring non-critical
path work as another viewpoint, as
shown in Figure 20.
Another traditional tool for
trending analysis is the monitoring
of missed start and finish dates and FIGURE 21 Trending Tool - Missed Starts and Finishes, Created by Microsoft Office 365 Pro Plus version 1701
a pattern can point to a weak trade
contractor or other stakeholder
failures to respond. While all critical path delays have slipped activity The use of earned value management is a common and useful trending
finish dates, but any slipped start or finish dates indicate a failure to meet tool when it is used in monitoring subsets of activities in the schedule,
plan and can not only affect performance but can also cause stacked such as individual trade contractors, floors, station-to-stations, phases,
N OV E M BE R/ DEC E M BE R 2 01 8

resources. See Figure 21. stages, or other categories. While the single set of project-level EV metrics
The use of Time Performance Ratios (called TPR or Tipper), which is provides some information, it takes drilling down into the segregated
the actual duration divided by the original duration, can be very revealing schedule to provide useful trending analysis. This requires the use of
in trending analysis. If a trade contractor consistently takes longer to the “to complete” metrics (To Complete Performance Index – TCPI) and
complete their work, there is often good reason to be concerned that it should include approaches that use previous performance rather than
will continue to happen. An effective analysis technique is to increase planned performance. Plotting the metrics can also allow visual analysis
durations of all future activities to be performed by those trade contractors of the steepness of future S-curves to see if they are based on much higher
with high TPR values. That demonstrates what will happen to the schedule production than historical data would warrant.
if the increased durations continue.
16
IMPORTANT ADVICE
Embracing trend analysis is just as important as critical path analysis.
Use all the tools to provide deeper insight; float dissipation, missed starts
and finishes, tipper, crew resource over-allocation, and earned value
management, especially with subsets of data from the schedule.
Conclusion
When projects get in trouble or even when project managers do not want
anyone to know too much about their project status, untruths can arise.
Here are some of the biggest lies encountered by the authors that must be
recognized and managed for a successful project:
10. There is no float buried in the construction schedule
9. Resource loading is too much trouble and doesn’t provide value to
the project
8. The project can achieve 10% construction Progress in one month
7. A detailed design-build schedule is impossible until design is
complete
6. The entire schedule has been analyzed and validated
5. All delay is the responsibility of one party
4. The schedule dates/critical paths have not been manipulated
3. “Our plan has not changed significantly; we’ve only made minor
adjustments”
2. The project is on schedule
1. The project has only slipped four days
REFERENCES
1. 2016 Global Construction Disputes, “Don’t Get Left Behind,” Arcadis
Contract Solutions.
2. AACE International Recommended Practice 29R-03 Forensic
Schedule Analysis, Rev. April 25, 2011.
3. AACE International Recommended Practice 38R-06, Documenting
the Schedule Basis, Rev. June 18, 2009.
4. AACE International Recommended Practice 52R-06, Time Impact
Analysis – As Applied in Construction, Rev. October 19, 2006.
5. AACE International Recommended Practice 70R-12, Principles
of Schedule Contingency Management as Applied in Engineering,
Procurement, and Construction. Rev. Oct. 16, 2013.
6. AACE International Recommended Practice 78R-13, Original
Baseline Schedule Review – as Applied in Engineering, Procurement, and
Construction, Rev. Oct. 23, 2014.
7. Konchar and Sanvido, Comparison of US Project Delivery Systems, 1997.
8. McGraw Hill, Smart Market Report, Managing Uncertainty and Expectations
in Building Design and Construction, McGraw Hill Construction, 2014.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Glen R. Palmer, CFCC PSP, is with GR Palmer Consulting Services, LLC. He
can be contacted by sending e-mail to: grpalmer@comcast.net.
Christopher W. Carson, CEP DRMP PSP FAACE,
is with Arcadis U.S., Inc. He can be contacted by
sending e-mail to: chris.carson@arcadis.com.

The authors hope that flagging this list will provide a deeper
understanding of the main areas of schedule analysis and prepare the CM
or owner to better question and review the statements made regarding
schedule submittals.

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