CICED2008 Technical Session 1
81-21 CP1442
Study on the Practical Spatial Load Forecasting Based
on Geographic Information System
Limei Zhou, Tao Wei, Mingtian Fan and Zuping Zhang
China Electric Power Research Institute No.I5, Xiaoying East Road Qinghe, Beijing, 100192 China
Abstract: The paper puts forward spatial load forecasting
method and its flow chat based on GIS, which is to pick up
exact geographic information by making use of GIS platform,
obtains the results of load forecasting in each plot by the
method of combining global load forecasting and spatial load
forecasting and draws the theme figures in the geographic
map of planning area. The paper takes an actual distribution
network for demonstration and the feasibility and rationality
of spatial load forecasting method proposed have been
validated in distribution network planning.
Keywords: Distribution network planning; spatial load
forecasting; GIS (geographic information system); land-use
classes
1 Introduction
Spatial load forecasting is the basis of distribution
network planning and distribution automation. Only after
determining the future load demands of all plots in the power
supply area, can it be possible to layout decision-variables,
such as the sites and capacity of substations, the types and
paths of feeders, the installation and use of switches, and so
on [1-3]. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast not only the
quantity of intending load but also the location where the load
is.
District load forecasting in China mainly adopts load
density index method which is bottom-up forecasting
approach [4] and the forecasting results are difficult to match
with system's. Moreover, this method completely depends on
area development planning provided by the planning
department. However, there are a lot of global load
forecasting methods which are the basis of urban power
network planning and forecasting results are accurate.
Therefore, the top-down spatial forecasting method put
forward in the paper is to distribute directly global forecasting
results over each power supply area and sequentially the load
of each plot in the supply area is forecasted.
Spatial load forecasting involves a large number of
Distribution network equipment
spatial information. Geographic Information System (GIS)
can provide a good platform for the data collection,
processing and expression of forecasting results in the course
of spatial load forecasting. GIS is introduced in spatial load
forecasting, which can greatly reduce amount of data
collection and is the necessary step that enables spatial load
forecasting methods practical.
The paper lays a strong emphasis on the practicability
and maneuverability of load forecasting method and puts
forward spatial load forecasting method and its flow chat
based on GIS, that is to pick up exact geographic information
by making use of GIS platform, obtain the results of load
forecasting in each plot by the method of combining global
load forecasting and spatial load forecasting and draw the
theme figures in the geographic map of planning area. The
spatial load forecasting method is more flexible and
convenient and able to effectively update the results of load
forecasting if external conditions and data change. And the
results of load forecasting are reasonable and visible. The
paper takes an actual distribution network for demonstration
and the feasibility and rationality of spatial load forecasting
method proposed have been validated in the planning of
distribution network.
2 Methods and steps of spatial load
forecastiong
2.1 Global Load Forecasting
There are many global load forecasting methods whose
precision is better, mainly including electricity consumption
per GDP, electricity consumption per capita, power elastic
factor, horizontal comparison, input-output method etc.
Furthermore, making use of modem mathematical theory to
process historical data scientifically, a series of electricity
demand forecasting methods, such as trend analysis,
regression analysis, index smoothing, grey model etc, can be
also established.
Because of the differences between data objects needed
 CICED2008 Technical Session 1
by various methods, the various methods will be not with
complete comparability. However, the results of various
forecasting methods are still with relative comparability.
Generally several appropriate methods can be used for
electricity demand forecasting. Then through analysizing and
comparing the results obtained, the relatively reasonable
recommended value of electricity demand forecasting can be
given finally. Electricity demand can be divided by the
maximum load utilization hours, the load value in forecasting
year will be calculated.
2.2 Spatial Load Forecasting
The small pixel load forecasting based on GIS is to
calculate the load density of all categories load on the premise
of controlling the global load demand. The load density and
load of specific plot can be calculated by extracting
corresponding GIS data, including the areas of all districts
and all plots. Thus load density calculated should be related to
some factors (such as different planning years, categories of
electricity consumption, and so on) with timeliness and
accuracy.
The flow chart of spatial load forecasting based on GIS
is shown in Figure 1. The steps used for calculating load
density and load of specific plot in different planning year are
as follows:
(1) Extracting the following information of several
categories in the database:
A the table about results of global load forecasting,
including the forecasting year t, forecasting methods f,
forecasting energy E(t,j) and forecasting load L(t,j);
B the table about categories of electricity consumption,
including the forecasting year t, categories of electricity
consumption i, ratio of electricity consumption If (t,s)
category maximum load utilization hours h;(s), in which
classification S of electricity consumption categories may be
based on land-use type or industry, and so on;
C the table about plot information, including plot number
k, plot name, owned district j, land-use classes, categories of
electricity consumption i , plot area Si,j,k . Output tables about the results of spatial load forecasting
(2) Calculating categories electricity consumption
category electricity consumption = forecasting energy (Billion
kWh) X ratio of electricity consumption (%);
E; (t,!,s) = E(t,!) x If (t,s) (1)
(3) Calculating the category maximum load category
maximum load (MW)= category electricity consumption
(Billion kWh)1 category maximum load utilization hours (h)
5
X 10 ;
Distribution network equipment
(2)
(4) Calculating the simultaneity and judging the
simultaneity =globalload demand (MW)/the sum of category
maximum load (MW)
simu = -=-L----'(_t,!---.;)_ (3)
LL;(t,!,s)
simu E (0.8.1) (4)
Whether the formula (4) is reasonable, if yes, go to the
next step, otherwise remind to modify the value of category
maximum load utilization hours or ratio of electricity
consumption, until formula (4) is correct or the simultaneity
meets user's requirements.
(5) Calculating the total area of plots based on the
categories of electricity consumption the total area of plots
based on categories of electricity consumption (square
kilometers)= sum of plot area based on categories of
electricity consumption
S; (t,s) = LLS;,j,k (5)
j k
(6) Calculating the category load density category load
density (kW/square kilometers) = Categories maximum load
(MW)I total area of plots based on categories of electricity
consumption (square kilometers) X 103
p, (t,f,s) - L~(t(,)) x 103 (6)
; t,s
(7) Calculating the load of each plot the load of each plot
(kW)= category load density (kW/square kilometers) x the
area of each plot (square kilometers)
L;,j,k (t,!,s) = p, (t,!,s) x S;,j,k (7)
, (8) Calculating the load of each district
the load of each district (MW)= the sum of each plot
load in the district (kW) X the simultaneity 1103
L;,j(t,!,s) = LL;,j,k(t,!,S) (8)
k
(9) Outputting data tables and graphic analysis
and make various theme figures analysis, including dot
density theme figures, bar chart theme figures and range
theme figures of the load and load density, etc.
The proposed spatial load forecasting methods are with
several characteristics:
2
 CICED2008 Technical Session 1 Distribution network equipment

reached 9.76 billion kWh and the maximum load demand

reached 2096 MW. In 2006, electricity consumptions of the
three industries in X zone were shown in table 1.

Table 1 electricity consumption of the three

industries and residents in 2006 (unit: billion kWh)

electricity J the the

e~~alIc
residential
conAltluua l~Ondary tertiary
living
entiresociety dustry industry
98.'lOnS umpnon 31.91 46.2 19.6

forecasts
3.2 The Results of Global 'r6Moro~efif~recast
The fi>recastingrPtfriOda· from 2010 to 2012. According
AnllU::I .IOa (h . .
to ana1yzmg nlslOncaT ata sue as socio-econormc
developmenfQl1~St8 so on) in X zone, the global
electricity consumption can be forecasted by adopting three
methods that are industrial category, power elastic factor and
grey M*iJfi.tll1n tmadO@~ended forecasting results
were gi~eiif~§ium and low schemes, shown
in table 2.

Table 2 the results of global load forecasting in

Figure 1 Flow Cha~ftd0ad Forecasting Based on GIS simultaneitjs ~i()\1) to 2012
(1) the classification of electricity consumption
categories can be chosen based on land-use type, industry or
others by the users. Calculating can also be done at many
times according to different classifications so as to mut~y
validate the results;
(2) the load simultaneity can be designated by users or
meets certain requirements; 3.3 Categories of Electricity Consumption
(3) for the sake of making problem. siIpElified, those The categories of ~ctricity consumption can be divided
areas classified as the mixed type~l~!JJ&lA:¥ be further based ~OOl(fl(1eifsi~<t;ifS of electricity consumption
broken into several parts a~6)mWmpti()Jilcn~&ion from 201~.~~012 will be shown in table3.
and other related data picked up frono<Fpt'tYtgt.
cnrerent types
Table 3 categories of electricity consumption
3 Application analysis in X zone from 2010 to 2012

The proposed methodQ1Q~~ i n »

· d . . U .~, at ase.
l?it!i
has been categories of
bJeadYof
category maximum
load utilization hours
app1Ie to some regions In Ina. actua applicatIon consumption
example is used to demonstrate the method and steps of the primary industry
spatial load forecasting. According to the steps shown in Fig.1,
spatial load forecasting of distribution network in a certain
3500-4000
district of Chinese city has been carried out.
2800
3.1 General Calculation Considerations
In a certain city of China, the total area of X zone is
3.4 Results of Spatial Load Forecasting
470.8 square kilometers, in which constructed-land area is
F1}ltfff~t1if1~Oft:\Bt~~seclasses and area in each
285 square kilometers. At the end of 2006, the GDP in X zone
plot can~;"'~xtracted by GIS. Then the category load density
achieved 1380.8 billion Yuan, the resident population of the
and load of various plots can be calculated according to the
region reached 2,911,000, the global electricity consumption
ratio of electricity consumption, shown in table 4.

3
 CICED2008 Technical Session 1 Distribution network equipment

Table 4 load forecasting results of some plots in X zone in 2010

categories of electricity plot area category load density

ID district name land-use classes
consumption (knr') (kW/km 2)
I electronic city warehousing land the tertiary industry 0.0256 5154.23
2 electronic city warehousing land the tertiary industry 0.0310 5154.23

94 electronic city industrial land the secondary industry 0.0270 40520.92

95 electronic city industrial land the secondary industry 0.0167 40520 .92
2927 electronic city residential land residential living 0.0477 8580.32
2930 electronic city residential land residential living 0.0671 8580.32
4085 electronic city farmland the primary industry 0.0493 2067.42
4089 electronic city farmland the primary industry 0.0568 2067.42

In table 4, ID represents for serial number of small pixel forecasting based on GIS in distribution network and
in GIS system . In 2010, there will be nearly 10,000 plots in X attempted to make the method practical. The results showed
zone. If the forecast task or recalculation is based on manual that the method of spatial load forecasting based on GIS can
work when some conditions or raw data are changed, the forecast the growth of future load demand in the space, time
workload of small pixel load forecast ing is quite enormous. and quantity and is more accurate than tradit ional methods.
Therefore, adopting spatial load forecasting method , new The siting and capacity of substation as well as the path and
results will be rapidly achieved and the related data will be type of distribution lines planned by means of the method
renovated in database and geographic map. should be more reasonable . Therefore, the method of spatial
The Figure 2 is dot density theme figure of load density load forecasting can fully meet the requirements of urban
of some plots at X zone in 20 I O. The information of any small distribution planning.
pixel, for example , land-use classes, plot area, load density,
load value, and etc. can be retrieved and displayed by GIS Refferences
system, which is very convenient and useful for planners to [I] H. C. we. C. N. Lu . A Spatial Modeling Technique for
make decision . Small Area Load Forecast, CICED 2000.
[2] H. LEE WILLIS, JOSEPH GREGG, YVONNE E.
CHAMBERS. Spatial Load Forecasting for System
Planning, CICED 2000.
[3] H. L. Willis . Spatial Electric Load Forecasting[M].
NewYork: Marcel Dekker, I 996.
[4] Weihong Yang, Mingtian Fan, Jun Yang, ZuPing Zhang . A
Practical Methodology for Spatial Load Forecast , CICED
2000.
[5]Tianhua Wang, Mingtian Fan." Application of Fuzzy Logic
and Transshipment Model to Spatial Load
Forecast" ,CIRED 99 .

Figure 2 dot density theme figure of load density Biographies

4 Conclusion
The paper described the method of spatial
forecasting in detail, put forward the steps of spatial load
Zhou Limei was born in 1979, China. She received
Master degree of engineer from North China Electric Power
University in 2006. Then, she joined in China Electric Power
load Research Institute and main study is urban electric network
planning, designing and operation .