Title; Space–Time Dynamics of African Swine Fever Spread in the

Philippines
by Chia-Hui Hsu, ORCID, Maximino Montenegro, and Andres Perez
Date; Published: 3 June 2023

Topic: Effect of swine fever to pig farmers in Población Suyo I locos Sur

African swine fever (ASF), first described in Africa in the 1920s, is

caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV). Infection results in high morbidity
and mortality in swine and has drastic implications for global domestic swine
production (1). This disease is reportable to the World Organization for Animal
Health (OIE), and viral infection in swine can have severe economic
consequences associated with production losses, trade limitations, and
eradication programs.

Summary

 African swine fever (ASF) is caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV),
which is the only known arthropod-borne DNA virus.
 Currently, there is no ASF vaccine approved for use.

Figure 1. Weekly
number of African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks (blue bars) and
3-week moving average (red line) reported in the Philippines between 16 August
2019 and 20 July 2022. The numbers in the top indicate the cumulative
number of outbreaks reported on the first (1 January–30 June) and second (1
July–31 December) semester of each year, which is indicated by light and dark
orange background shades, respectively.

Figure 2. Seasonal index, Si (blue line), computed as the ratio between the
cumulative number and the monthly cumulative average of African Swine
Fever (ASF) outbreaks reported per month in the Philippines between 16
August 2019 and 20 July 2022. The orange line indicates the value of Si = 1.

Most (15/17) administrative regions of the Philippines reported ASF outbreaks

within the study period. Region III, also known as Central Luzon, experienced
the highest number of ASF outbreaks, accounting for 24.66% of all reported
cases (4857/19,697). The Ilocos Region, also known as Region I, had the
second-highest number of outbreaks, with a cumulative total of 3404, followed
by Cagayan Valley in Region II, with a total of 2664 outbreaks. These figures
demonstrate the significant impact of ASF on several regions in the northern
part (Luzon Island) of the Philippines. Region VI (Western Visayas) and Region
VII (Central Visayas) maintained ASF-free zone during the study period (Figure
3).
Figure 3. Cumulative number (grouped per quartiles) of African Swine Fever
(ASF) outbreaks reported per province in the Philippines between 16 August
2019 and 20 July 2022.

Title: Factors Affecting the Spread, Diagnosis, and Control of African

Swine Fever in the Philippines
by Chia-Hui Hsu, ORCID, Rachel Schambow, ORCID, Maximino
Montenegro, Ruth Miclat-Sonoco and Andres Perez
Date: Published: 21 August 2023

The SWOT analysis (Table 5) of ASF control in the Philippines

identified strengths such as the National Control Policy and collaboration
between government levels. Weaknesses included a lack of compensation and
trust, the absence of a traceability system, and resource constraints.
Opportunities included using social media and responsible technology, while
threats encompassed movement risks and limited veterinarians.

Discussion

Despite ASF spreading within the country since 2019, field data describing the
clinical presentation of the disease and the factors affecting disease spread and
control in the Philippines are limited, or where present, difficult to access. This
may be explained, at least in part, by the challenges associated with collecting
and reporting accurate data, such as knowledge of and access to affected
farms, the potentially sensitive nature of collected data, and the availability of
necessary resources and personnel for data collection. To better understand
ASF in the Philippines, a group of practitioners and government officers with
field experience with the disease was assembled, and a mixture of qualitative
and quantitative methods were used to gather their collective opinion on
important features of ASF outbreaks and spread. This paper presents, for the
first time, information on the factors affecting the spread, diagnosis, and
control of ASF in the Philippines.

Title; New research reveals spatial and temporal patterns of African

swine fever outbreaks in the Philippines
By College of Veterinary Medicine
Date; July 24, 2023

Recently published research maps African Swine Fever (ASF) in the

Philippines, pinpointing where and when outbreaks tend to happen across the
country throughout the year. This information can help government officials
make and execute effective, targeted mitigation strategies and help clarify
critical details about this disease globally.

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects
domestic pigs and wild boars. ASF can cause high fever, loss of appetite,
weakness, and hemorrhages in affected pigs. There is currently no known cure
or vaccine for ASF, so producers often must cull affected animals and
implement strict biosecurity measures to combat it.

Although ASF doesn't harm humans, outbreaks have caused significant

economic losses in various countries, including the Philippines, where a 2019
outbreak led to the culling of over 300,000 pigs. Pork production decreased by
20.8% in 2021, leading to higher pork prices and affecting the livelihoods of
many consumers.

This study aimed to understand how African Swine Fever Virus spreads over
time and the factors contributing to it to develop strategies to better detect and
control it. The research team analyzed nearly 19,700 ASF outbreaks on farms
in the Philippines from August 2019 to July 2022, assessing where and when
the outbreaks happened and how the disease spread. The scientists observed
that the outbreaks occurred in specific locations at specific times, showing a
clustering pattern. The researchers also saw that ASF had a seasonal pattern,
with the most outbreaks occurring between August and October and the lowest
between April and May. The team suspects factors like rainfall and cultural
practices contribute to these patterns.

However, the team didn't have information about the type of farms where the
outbreaks occurred, and different farm types have different risks associated
with the ASF outbreak, depending on their biosecurity, population density, and
veterinary services—all of which vary. Additionally, some outbreaks may not
have been reported, which could have affected their results.

Still, while there are challenges in implementing the government's plan due to
political, socio-cultural, and economic factors, this research provides valuable
information about the ASF epidemic in the Philippines. The study’s findings
can help government officials generate effective new measures to control it and
optimize existing national surveillance systems and management programs.
The research also helps advance the development and implementation of
prevention and control plans, contributing to the overall knowledge of the
disease’s spread and making the findings relevant to stakeholders in other
countries.

“We are continuing to work toward identifying the main risk factors that
contribute to the fast spread of the pathogen,” says lead study author and CVM
PhD student Jesper Chia-Hui Hsu, “and assist in better policy-making in the
country, as well as in ASF-free regions and countries.”