The Socio-Economic and Environmental Impact of African Swine Fever (ASF) on the

Philippine Local Pork Industry

By: Julius F. Bañega, Ecosystems Research and Development Bureau

Gerald C. Catambacan, School of Environmental Science and Management, UPLB
Ma. Raysolyn E. Natividad, UMIC International, Inc.
Christine Mae B. Santos, Institute of Computer Science, UPLB

Abstract

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a disease in domestic pigs and wild boar caused by a
virus called the African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV). ASFV has proven to be
exceptionally resilient and can survive in extreme temperatures and pH environments.

The first ASF case in the Philippines emerged in 2019 in the province of Bulacan and
Rizal. The authorities blamed the contaminated pork smuggled from China for the
recent local ASFV outbreaks (Romero, 2019). Based on the investigation of the
Department of Agriculture (DA), shipments from China containing products tested
positive for ASFV were initially declared as tomato pastes and vermicelli. The DA
operatives also suspected that food wastes from the products were converted to swill
feeds that were fed to the pigs.

A few weeks after the ASFV detection on September 9, 2019, the Philippines’ Bureau
of Animal Industry (BAI) reported that the ASFV in the country has reached an
outbreak level (Pelayo, 2019).

The results of the study will be presented using three institutional frameworks: the
Socio-ecological Systems framework, the Institutional Analysis, and Development
framework, and the Environmental Resource Conflict Resolution framework.

Based on the results of the study, it has been concluded that the effect of the Philippine
government’s policies, programs and initiatives that are being implemented to handle,
prevent, and control ASF virus in the country is still wanting and the minimization of
ASF incidents has yet to be felt by the swine/pork industry sector. Hence, several
measures and intervention strategies have been recommended by the researchers in
order to mitigate the effects of the ASF virus in the country.

Keywords: African Swine Fever, ASF, pigs, swine, hogs, boar, pork, agriculture
I. Introduction

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a disease in domestic pigs and wild boar caused by a virus called
the African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV). ASFV has proven to be extremely resilient as it can
survive in extreme temperatures and pH environments. In the presence of protein, some infectious
viruses may survive for up to 7 days at 13.4 pH and a few hours below pH 4.0 (49) (Pirtle and
Beran, 1991). There is currently no cure or vaccine for the disease, which is why governments
have resorted to culling to prevent the disease’s spread (Ichimura, 2019).

The disease was first detected in domestic pigs in Africa brought from Europe in the early 1900s
(Costard, Mur, Lubroth, Sanchez-Vizcaino, & Pfeiffer, 2013). The virus was believed to have
originated from ticks (Plowright, Perry, & Greig, 1974) before it was transmitted to susceptible
domestic pigs.

The present ASF pandemic can be traced more than 13 years back in Georgia (Blome, Franzke,
& Beer, 2020). The virus spread throughout the Caucasian region including Russia. In 2014, ASF
was already widespread in many European countries. The disease was able to reach China in 2018
and has been spreading in several Asian countries since.

The vast coverage of the ASF pandemic has greatly influenced the worldwide economy.
Livelihood farmers and stakeholders are the ones directly impacted (Plavšić et al., 2019). Being
the most consumed meat among the terrestrial animals, about 37% of global meat intake (FAO
2013), pigs have become an essential source of animal protein. When ASF swept across Europe
and Asia, the enormous number of affected pigs had severe after-effects in terms of global food
security. Incomes of pig product importing countries were also affected due to the closure of
markets. Moreover, the ASF economic impacts had a domino effect on the trade of other key
commodities such as corn and soybean (Plavšić et al., 2019).

The astounding economic losses initiated the launching of comprehensive plans against the
disease from international institutions. In 2020, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO) and the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) implemented a
program called Global Control of ASF Initiative under the Global Framework for the Progressive
Control of Transboundary Animal Disease.

A. Rationale

The first ASF case in the Philippines emerged in 2019 in the province of Bulacan and Rizal. The
authorities blamed the contaminated pork smuggled from China for the recent local ASFV
outbreaks (Romero, 2019). Based on the investigation of the Department of Agriculture (DA),
shipments from China containing products tested positive for ASFV were initially declared as
tomato pastes and vermicelli. The DA operatives also suspected that food wastes from the
products were converted to swill feeds that were fed to the pigs.

A few weeks after the ASFV detection on September 9, 2019, the Philippines’ Bureau of Animal
Industry (BAI) reported that the ASF in the country has reached an outbreak level (Pelayo, 2019).

At present, ASF has not been contained and controlled. It has deleteriously affected the local
pork industry in the Philippines. In 2021, the inflation rate on pork products soared to 20.7% from
17.1% since the ASF outbreak continues to pull down pork supply (Ordinario and Piad, 2021).

1
 While the efforts of the government in mitigating the outbreak are evident, there is still a need for
assessing the current ASF situation in the Philippines in terms of socio-economic and
environmental impacts on the local pork industry in order to come up with integrated management
plans and policies to mitigate the effect of ASF. Likewise, it is important to bridge the gap between
policy-makers and stakeholders to effectively address the pressing socio-economic and
environmental dilemmas regarding ASF.

Hence, this study.

B. Objectives

The study’s main objective is to assess the current ASF situation in the Philippines in terms of its
socio-economic and environmental impacts on the Philippines local pork industry, and to review
the policies and programs initiated by government institutions and safety practices employed by
pork industry associations to mitigate the effect of the ASFV.

Specifically, it aims to:

1. Identify the existing policies and programs on ASF implemented by the national
government;

2. Identify the safety practices employed in managing ASFV on a national level and in
selected local government units;

3. Identify the gaps of the various socio-economic and environmental policies and programs
on ASF; and

4. Provide recommendations for improving existing policies and programs on ASF.

II. Materials and Methods

A. Data Collection

The study shall utilize secondary data gathered from national government agencies and local
government units through online research and other scientific journals and publications.
The researchers shall also utilize Key Informant Interview (KII) through phone patch for selected
top level executives engaged in the swine/pork industry in the Philippines.

B. Data Analysis

Due to time constraints and the current pandemic situation, the analysis will be limited only to
secondary data/information provided by national government agencies and associations involved
in the swine/pork industry that are immediately accessible and available.

The data gathered from both online research and phone interviews will be analyzed using three
institutional frameworks: the Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) framework, the Institutional

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 Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, and the Environmental Resource Conflict (ERC)
framework.

III. Results and Discussion

The devastation caused by the ASFV has been underestimated by the Department of Agriculture
(SciDev.Net, 2021). This has led to the shortage of pork supply and to the rise in prices of several
food items.

As of March 2020, most of the infected provinces are in Luzon, with a selected few in Mindanao.
However, a year later (March 2021), ASFV has already spread out throughout the whole country
(Appendix 1).

Some hog raisers have downsized their production due to ASFV to minimize losses estimated to
be around US$1.2 billion (SciDev.Net, 2021). According to the World Organization for Animal
Health Director General Monique Eloit, these losses in production directly contributed to the
impoverishment of families whose livelihoods are directly dependent on the swine industry,
reducing their opportunities to access better health and education, and may lead to loss of social
status (SciDev.Net, 2021).

This drastic increase in the retail price of pork created a ripple effect on the prices of other animal
meat (including chicken and fish), vegetables and other basic commodities. Hence, no less than
the President of the Philippines initiated some executive actions to address the escalating problem
on ASF.

A. In the lens of Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) Framework

The first institutional framework in which the results of this study will be analyzed is the SES
framework as shown in Figure 1.

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Figure 1. The socio-economic and environmental impact of ASF in the Philippine local pork
industry using the Socio-Ecological Systems Framework.

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Resource System (RS)

The swine, pig, hog, or pork industry is a P250-billion industry (PSA, 2021) that ranked second
to rice with an 18.28% contribution to the total value of agricultural production, according to the
Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development
(PCAARRD), a line agency attached to the Department of Science and Technology (Tacio, 2021).
PCAARRD also added that in 2019, the Philippines ranked eight (8) in the world in terms of the
volume of pork production and the number of breeding sows (Tacio, 2021).

Swine production is important for the food security program of the Philippines since it accounts
for 60% of the total animal meat consumption of Filipinos (Tacio, 2021). Hence, it is no wonder
that the per capita consumption of pork in the Philippines is 15.2 kilograms per capita which is
higher than the world’s average of 11.1 kilograms per capita (SciDev.Net, 2021).

The total swine inventory as of April 1, 2021 is estimated to be around 9.55 million heads which
is lower by -22.6 % from the 12.34 million headcounts in the same period in 2020 (Appendix 2).

Resource Units (RU)

1) Local Hog Production and Value of Production

The volume of hog production in the country has been steadily decreasing since 2018, from
2.32 million metric tons to 2.14 million metric tons live weight annual production (Appendix
3). This accounted for a sharp decline in growth rate from 2.4% to -6.7% in just 2 years (PSA,
2021).

The value of hog production decreased from P277.532 million in 2018 to P256.265 million in
2020 (PSA, 2021). The decline in the value of production resulted in a -1% annual growth rate
in 2019, the year when ASFV was first detected in the country, to -6.7% annual growth rate in
2020 (Appendix 4).

2) Pork Imports

There is a decline in Philippine pork imports between 2018 to 2020. Pork imports from 2018
to 2020 decreased from 330.295 metric tons in 2018 to 165.226 metric tons in 2020 (Appendix
5). However, since the ASF outbreak continues to affect pork production in the country and an
executive order has been issued to favor pork importation and augment pork supply, it is
expected that pork imports will increase in the coming months.

3) Prices of Pork Meat

The decrease in pork production led to a shortage in pork supply. However, the shortage in
production and supply did not cause an increase in average farm gate prices. Instead, the
average farm gate of slaughtered pork decreased to P105.69 per kilo in 2019 and hiked up
again in 2020 to P108.71 per kilo from the P115.58 price per kilo in 2018, accounting for a -
8.6% growth rate in 2019, and a 2.9% growth rate in 2020 (Appendix 6). In the first quarter of
2021, the average farm gate price increased to P153.70, accounting for a growth rate of 47.2%
for the same period last year (Appendix 7).

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 On the other hand, the average retail price in 2019 decreased to P215.96 and increased to
P225.15 in 2020 from P217.63 in 2018, accounting for a -0.8% growth rate in 2019 and 4.3%
in 2020 (Appendix 8).

4) Number of Culled Hogs

Based on the depopulation data from the National ASF Task Force, as of May 7, 2021, there
are 423,564 culled swine from backyard production and 48,503 culled swine from commercial
production, totaling to 472,067 culled swine from 2019 to 2020 (Appendix 9).

5) Number of Hog Raisers Affected by ASFV

According to the Department of Agriculture, ASF has infected 12 regions, 40 provinces, 463
municipalities, and 2,400 barangays in the Philippines as of February 2021. For more than a
year, the number of hog owners that have been affected by the ASF disease reached more than
68,382 individuals (Mercado, 2021).

6) Incentives to Affected Hog Raisers

The DA, through the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation (PCIC), will compensate the
farmers P10,000.00 for each hog culled due to the ASF outbreak.

Governance System (GS)

1) Pork Production System

The DA classified hog raising farming in the Philippines into two: backyard production (those
farmers raising 20 hog heads and below), and commercial production (those farmers raising
more than 20 hog heads).

There are also established commercial feed mills all over the country. These feed mills mostly
cater to backyard farmers, but commercial producers also use them for piglets and lactating
sows. Commercial production has facilities that are tunnel ventilated and multi-site and can
implement an all-in all-out system. Automation was also used in most commercial and
integrated farms.

One swine production cycle in the country usually lasts 5 ½ months to 6 months to reach the
marketable age and weight. The cycle involves four phases: breeding-gestation (conception),
farrowing (birthing), nursery (growth and development), and grow-finish (feed to reach
marketable weight).

2) Institutional Policy System

There are many national government agencies involved in instituting policies and in the
management and monitoring of the swine/pork industry. Some of these are the Office of the
President, Senate and the House of Representatives, the National Economic and Development
Authority, and the Department of Agriculture (DA), particularly its attached agency the Bureau
of Animal Industry (BAI).

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These agencies have promulgated policies and programs for the industry, such as the
following:

a) Executive Order 105 series 2020 creating a National Task Force on Animal-borne Diseases
(NTFAD)

The signing of Executive Order 105 series 2020 on February 21, 2020, creating a National
Task Force on Animal-borne Diseases (NTFAD) paved the way for a systematic and
coordinated mechanism to fight ASF in the country. The NTFAD, headed by Agriculture
Secretary William Dar, was tasked to provide an effective coordination mechanism among
government agencies and implement measures to prevent the entry and control the spread
of animal-borne diseases, such as African swine fever (ASF), in the country (Xinhua, 2020).

b) Administrative Order no. 22 series 2020 directing the implementation of the National
Zoning and Movement Plan for the Prevention and Control of African Swine Fever (ASF)

The President has released Administrative Order No. 22 dated February 5, 2020, directing
all the government agencies and local government units to strictly implement and comply
with DA Administrative Circular No. 12 series 2019 or the National Zoning and Movement
Plan for the Prevention and Control of African Swine Fever (Office of the President, 2020).

A zoning approach is one of the internationally recognized strategies recommended by the

World Organization for Animal Health to prevent the spread of any animal disease. In fact,
this approach was also used and was successful in the eradication of Foot and Mouth
Disease (FMD) in the country through intensified surveillance and animal movement
management. Accordingly, the National Zoning and Movement Plan will guide movement
protocols intended to control the spread of the virus (DA, 2020).

Zoning in each region of the country is defined by the geographical limits as established by
the veterinary authorities (DA, 2020). The zone classification is the following:

i. Containment Zone refers to Luzon Island where the initial case of ASF was detected. It
was further categorized into different zones with respective movement protocol affecting
the defined zones (Department of Agriculture).
● Red Zone (Infected Zone) includes provinces with confirmed ASF cases.
● Pink Zone (Buffer Zone) includes cities and municipalities of the NCR and those that
are adjacent to the infected zone. For the purpose of this zoning, and in consideration
that NCR is mainly a “market” area for the hogs, NCR shall also be included in the
buffer zone.
● Yellow Zone (Surveillance Zone) includes provinces that are high-risk (provinces that
have dense population of swine, and volume of trade of pigs, pork and pork products).
This also includes previously declared red zones that have been declared free from
ASF (following BAI guidelines).
● Light Green Zone (Protected Zone) are provinces that are low-risk and are contiguous
to the yellow zone.

ii. Free Zone (Dark Green Zone) are areas which remain free from ASF virus.

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 c) Senate Committee on Agriculture Resolution declaring a State of Emergency for ASF

The Senate Committee on Agriculture headed by Senator Cynthia Villar has enacted a
resolution advocating that DA recommend to President Duterte a state of emergency
declaration for the entire country due to ASFV, which, according to the latest estimates,
already costs P50 billion in industry losses (Ramos, 2021). This executive action, which
was supported by the National Federation of Hog Farmers, would provide additional
funding and address the concerns of the hog industry (Ramos, 2021).

The resolution was also supported by DA officials, who revealed that DA would need
P34.333 billion to implement its three-year ASF recovery program that intends to re-
establish and even surpass the country’s pre-ASF pork production level. The budget
breakdown per year are as follows: P9.161 billion for 2021, P13.561 billion for 2022, and
P11.611 billion for 2023 (Arcalas, 2021).

The above budget would be used to fund the four programs under DA’s ASF Recovery Plan
namely calibrated repopulation and intensified production; putting-up of swine breeder
multiplier farms; provision of insurance premium; and biosecurity and surveillance
programs (Arcalas, 2021).

The interventions mentioned above are expected to benefit 115,800 farmers with a
production value worth P157.5 billion (Arcalas, 2021). Furthermore, these interventions
would also be complemented with the P27.5-billion loan facility by the Agricultural Credit
Policy Council, Land Bank of the Philippines and Development Bank of the Philippines,
which would be made available to hog raisers (Arcalas, 2021).

Users (U)

There are three main groups of actors in the swine/pork industry. These are the local pork
producers (business individuals or entities engaged in backyard and commercial production), pork
consumers (the general public who consume pork and other pork products on a daily or weekly
basis), and policy-makers and decision-makers (individuals or institutions that formulate laws,
regulations, policies, and protocols for the efficient and effective management of pork production,
marketing, and consumption in the country).

Interactions (I)

Interactions among users, resources, and systems involved in the local pork industry may result
in any of the following negative feedback: (1) conflicting perspective between government
institutions and local pork industry associations, and (2) increase in investment costs on
repopulation, breeding, and swine production.

On the other hand, the interactions of these different factors may also lead to positive feedback
such as the following: (1) provision of incentives to hog raisers affected by ASF, (2)
implementation of a massive information drive on ASF in collaboration with the local government
units and other national government agencies such as the Philippine Information Agency and
Land Franchising and Toll Regulatory Board, and (3) consultation and dialogues of various
stakeholders in the local swine/pork industry.

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These various interactions helped shape the flow of resources and feedback mechanisms within
the local swine/pork industry, consequently impacting the adaptation and mitigation measures for
ASF virus in the country.

Outcomes (O)

1) Increased swine/pork production

Programs that increase swine production and curb the spread of ASF have been alloted a
budget of P2.1 billion and include the putting up of breeder farms and the modernization of
the hog growing process (Ochave, 2021).

One of these programs is the Hog Repopulation Program or the Integrated National Swine
Production Initiatives for Recovery and Expansion (INSPIRE) was launched in Batangas on
February 11, 2021 to encourage backyard and commercial raisers in ASF-free areas and “green
zones” to go back to piglet production and swine fattening. The INSPIRE program has initial
funding of P600 million (DA Communications Group).

Another program is the Swine Multiplier (Breeder) Program that has been allocated P110
million by DA under its Bayanihan 2 budget under the national livestock program (Simeon,
2020). The focus areas for this program are those provinces or municipalities that have no ASF
cases so that backyard farmers and small hog raisers will be able to further increase their
production (Simeon, 2020).

2) Stabilization of pork meat prices

A price freeze was implemented through Executive Order 124 for 60 days (from February 8,
2021, to April 8, 2021) to curb price hikes of pork and chicken meat, especially in Metro
Manila (Ocampo, 2021). The set price per kilo of chicken meat is P160, pork ham is P270, and
pork belly is P300.

3) Increased pork supply in the market

The President, through the recommendation of the DA, signed Executive Order (EO) 128
series of 2021 on April 7, 2021, to augment the current shortfall of pork supply in the country
(Arcalas, 2021).

EO 128 temporarily cuts the tariff rate on pork imports within the minimum access volume
(MAV) quota to 5 percent, from the current rate of 30 percent, for the first three months upon
the effectiveness of the presidential directive. The reduced rate will go up to 10 percent for the
next nine months thereafter. It also increases the MAV quota for pork from 54,210 metric tons
(MT) to 404,210 MT.

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 Some legislators and pork industry associations have raised their concerns on this issue.
According to Dr. Ernesto Ordonez, Convenor of Agri-Fisheries Alliance1 and Chairman of
Alyansa Agrikultura2, reducing the tariff rates to 5% will only benefit importers and not the
local pork producers. This is because increasing the tariff rates to 30% and 40% would earn
pork importers an annual Return of Investment (ROI) of 216% and 120%, respectively
(Appendix 10).

Furthermore, Arch. Edwin Chen, President of Pork Producers Federation of the Philippines or
Pro-Pork3, also stated that increasing pork importation would also undermine efforts to revive
the local pork industry who are severely affected by ASFV and could push local pork producers
out of business.

4) Decreased incidents of ASF through improved handling, prevention, and control

a) Biosecurity Surveillance Program or the “Bantay ASF sa Barangay” or “BABay ASF”

Administrative Order No. 7, series of 2021, embodied the implementing guidelines for the
“BABay ASF”, which has initial funding of P1.5 billion (DA Communications Group). This
program is a community-based approach to prevent, control, and manage ASF while applying
sound epidemiologic principles and available technology such as the use of ASF rapid test kits,
through the cooperation of LGU and swine raisers.

b) Implementation of 1-7-10 Protocol

The country also implemented the 1-7-10 protocol to prevent the further spread of ASFV. This
means that all pigs within a 1-km radius of infected farms will be culled while the pig’s
movement, including its by-products, will be limited and under strict surveillance and testing
within a 7-km radius. Furthermore, swine farms within a 10-km radius will also be required to
submit a mandatory report on the disease (Xinhua, 2020).

Social-Economic and Political Settings (S)

a) Market Availability of Pork (locally-produced)

Hog producers from the Visayas and Mindanao regions are supplying pork meats to Metro
Manila to ensure pork supply in Metropolitan Manila and other Luzon provinces. Thus, the
DA has set a P800 million budget in transport subsidies for hog growers and traders delivering
hogs to Metro Manila public markets (DA Communications Group).

1
Agri-Fisheries Alliance (AFA) is a group composed of 5 coalitions from the agriculture and fisheries sector. These
coalitions are the Alyansa Agrikultura (representing farmers and fisherfolk), Philippine Chamber of Food and
Agriculture (representing agribusiness), Coalition for Agriculture Modernization in the Philippines (representing
science and academe), Pambansang Koalisyon ng mga Kababaihan sa Kanayunan (representing rural women).
and Agriculture-Fisheries 2025 (representing multi-sector leaders).
2
Alyansa Agrikultura (AA) is a coalition composed of 42 federations and organizations covering all major
agricultural sectors from all over the country.
3
Pork Producers Federation of the Philippines, Inc. (ProPork) is a federation of 39 pork industry associations located
all over the Philippines.

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2) Lending Programs in support of ASF

The DA, through the Agricultural Credit and Policy Council (ACPC), is offering zero-interest
loans, payable in three to five years, with an initial funding of 500-million for this lending
program (Ochave, 2021).

The Development Bank of the Philippines and the Land Bank of the Philippines have also
alloted P12 billion and P15 billion, respectively, for lending to commercial hog raisers
(Ochave, 2021).

3) Swine Production Safety Practices at the National level

a) Biosecurity and Surveillance Program

The biosecurity surveillance program believed that barangay officials should be empowered
as they play a crucial role in the detection, management, and prevention of the further spread
of ASFV at the grassroots level.

b) Implementation of 1-7-10 Protocol

All backyard and commercial farms are required by the national and local government units
to strictly follow the guidelines of the 1-7-10 protocol to prevent the further spread of ASFV
in their areas.

c) ASF Testing Kits

The DA has allocated P80 million for the development and production of Philippine-made
testing kits that could detect ASFV on livestock and meat products (CNN, 2021). The
locally-developed rapid test kits called ASFV Nanogold Biosensor kits have been
developed by scientists from Central Luzon State University (Lopez, 2021).

The kits had already been rolled out in Batangas City last February 2021, where 100 test
kits were turned over to local piggery owners to check if their hogs are infected (Lopez,
2021).

The liquid inside the small test kits will turn reddish if the specimen is negative of ASFV.
However, the liquid will turn black or gray if it's a "strong positive." (Lopez, 2021).

d) Accreditation of ASF Testing Laboratories

The DA has accredited 13 government laboratories (Appendix 11) and 6 private diagnostic
laboratories (Appendix 12), mostly located in Metro Manila and Calabarzon, to test for ASF
virus.

e) Production-to-Market Biosecurity Protocol

ProPork President Edwin Chen stated that their federation has developed its own
biosecurity protocol which started in June 2020 to combat the spread of ASF in their
respective farms. Member-associations of ProPork (Appendix 13) utilized different

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 transport vehicles and staff in both their production area and marketing area to ensure the
safety of their hogs and to avoid any contamination from outside sources.

According to President Chen, vehicles assigned in the production area are to be strictly used
in the production area only. The same holds true for staff assigned in the production area.
In the same manner, transport vehicles used for marketing the hogs should remain only in
the marketing area. Moreover, staff assigned in the marketing area are only authorized to
work in the said area.

4) Swine Production Safety Practices at the Local level

There are two local government units whose safety practices for the containment of ASFV in
their respective jurisdiction will be highlighted in this report. These are the provinces of
Misamis Oriental in Mindanao and Leyte in the Visayas.

a) Province of Misamis Oriental

❖ A P24.8 million indemnity fund will be provided to hog raisers in Cagayan de Oro City
and the province of Misamis Oriental whose livestock were affected by the ASFV
(Luczon, 2021)
❖ Hog raisers will receive P7,000 for each culled pig, with the DA providing P5,000 while
the LGU will shoulder the remaining P2,000 (Luczon, 2021)
❖ Retained Executive Order No. 172 or the temporary total ban on the entry of live hogs
and pork-based products from ASF-affected areas in the country and abroad is
implemented in CDO (City of Cagayan de Oro, Philippines, 2021).
❖ Test-slaughter protocol implemented for commercial farms from ASF-affected areas is
strictly required (City of Cagayan de Oro, Philippines, 2021)
❖ CDO requires barangay certification before issuance of Veterinary Health Certificate
(VHC) to ensure that animal source is from ASF-free barangay (City of Cagayan de Oro,
Philippines, 2021).
❖ Activation of the Incident Management Team for the depopulation activity already
happened in CDO. As of March 16, there are 15 culling operations, 14 index cases, and
17 affected barangays. Total depopulation was done in the first two positive barangays
as a pre-emptive measure against the spread of ASF (City of Cagayan de Oro,
Philippines, 2021).
❖ Surveillance team from the City Veterinary Office conducts daily blood collection in
response to reported cases and surveillance outside the 500meter radius of affected
barangays, including neighboring areas (City of Cagayan de Oro, Philippines, 2021)
❖ The city passed the Ordinance No. 14043-2021 or the Animal Disease Prevention and
Control of Cagayan de Oro City penalizing swill feeding, online selling, disobedience
to persons in authority during depopulation, among others (City of Cagayan de Oro,
Philippines, 2021)

b) Province of Leyte (Amazona, 2021)

❖ The province of Leyte implemented the establishment of safe zones where raisers can
continue their hog production despite the presence of the virus. These safe zones will be
set up in communal farms far from residential areas. One of the identified possible safe

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 zones for hog raising in the province is the 130 farmer associations listed as recipients
of the Leyte Economic Program of the provincial government.

❖ Leyte is also mandated to intensify the biosecurity in piggery to prevent the transmission
of the ASF virus. This means that more veterinarians at the municipal and provincial
level will train more hog raisers on how to protect their pigs against the virus.

Related Ecosystem (ECO)

1) Ecohealth Effects of ASF

Ecohealth posited that health and well-being are not only dependent on ecosystems, but are
also important outcomes of effective resource management. The ASF outbreak becomes a
public health issue since pork is considered as a primary commodity. ASFV does not infect
humans per se, but if the selling of affected pigs continues or cheap pork products do not
undergo proper inspection, they could cause diseases like diarrhea or food poisoning.

In addition, effluents from affected farms might carry the virus and might also affect other
areas, therefore spreading the virus.

a) Biosecurity and Surveillance Program

Proper handling and management of ASF cases should be implemented and properly
monitored through the biosecurity and surveillance program which is a community-based
approach to prevent, control, and manage ASF with the sound application of epidemiologic
principles and available technology such as the use of ASF rapid test kits.

b) ASF Vaccine

At present time, Chinese, Vietnamese, and UK researchers are still working on this.
Researchers have initially tested the vaccine on small scales that have provided optimistic
results. According to reports from experts and businesses in charge of technology
transference, Vietnam might have a vaccine for the said disease by the third quarter of 2021.
While UK scientists from Pirbright Institute have already conducted its vaccine trial where
100% of pigs immunized survived a lethal dose of ASF virus. In the Philippines, the ASF
vaccine trials started on April 23, 2021 in ten trial farms to complement the ongoing
“Bantay ASF sa Barangay” program. The DA-BAI will conduct and monitor the ASF
vaccine trials for 84 days in line with the protocols set by the government technical working
group (vaccines manufacturer & Zoetis Philippine, Inc.) (DA Communications Group,
2021).

c) Proposal to create a Virology Institute

The Department of Science and Technology has announced on October 30, 2020 that the
country is proposing a Virology Science and Technology Institute of the Philippines (VIP).
In November 2020, the DOST announced that the agency will get 284 million worth of
funding in 2021 for the purchase of equipment and other needs that will be used to start
research activities (DOST, 2020).

13
Considering that the national government and the local government units had implemented
several policies, programs, and initiatives to mitigate the effect of ASFV in the country, and the
national coffers had already poured millions (even billions) in budgetary allocation to roll out
these programs, it would be worthwhile therefore to take a look at the sustainability of these
initiatives under the lens of the Socio-Ecological Systems-Institutional Resilience Framework as
shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. The socio-economic and environmental impact of ASF in the Philippine local pork
industry using the SES-Institutional Resilience Framework.

As can be seen in Figure 2, most of the policies, programs, and initiatives fall under the persistence
stage, some are on the adaptation stage, while a few are on the transformation stage. This simply
means that most of the policies, programs, and initiatives implemented to mitigate the effect of
ASFV are only stop-gap measures that are meant to be for a short-term time horizon, majority of
which are implemented only in 2021.

On the other hand, programs and initiatives that fall under the adaptation stage are mostly those
that ensure the continuous supply of pork meat from local producers, and pork meat sold in the
market remains ASF virus-free, which had been implemented since the detection of the ASFV in
September 2019.

Lastly, the few initiatives that fall under the transformation stage are those initiatives that emerged
as a result of the policies and programs implemented in both the persistence and adaptation stages,
which proved to be sustainable and could be implemented for a long term horizon. These are the
development of the ASF testing kit, ASF vaccine, and the accreditation of ASF diagnostic
laboratories.

14
B. Using the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework

The second institutional framework in which the results of this study will be analyzed is the
Institutional Analysis and Development Framework as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3. The socio-economic and environmental impact of ASF in the Philippine local pork
industry using the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework.

Physical World

The physical boundary or scope of this study covers the whole Philippine swine/pork industry,
which is affected by the ASFV.

Community

The socio-economic and demographic profile of the swine/pork industry has different attributes
which involve different stakeholders from both the government and private sector.

Based on available statistical data, information related to total hog production, value of
production, and pork imports has been steadily decreasing from 2018 to 2020 (PSA, 2021). On
the other hand, the farm gate prices of hog in 2019 and 2020 is way below its farm gate price in
2018 while its retail price had decreased in 2019 but has increased in 2020 compared to its 2018
price. The total swine inventory as of April 1, 2021 is estimated to be around 9.55 million heads,
which is lower by -22.6 % in the same period in 2020 (PSA, 2021).

The ASFV has also affected more than 68,382 individuals (Mercado, 2021), with the total culled
hogs reaching 472,067 heads from both backyard and commercial production from 2019 to 2020
(BAI-DA, 2021). The farmers will be compensated P10,000 for each hog culled due to ASFV.

15
Rules-in-Use

At present, there are several national government rules that are put-in place to contain ASFV in
the country. These rules are divided into authority rules, boundary rules, and pay-off rules.

1) Authority Rules

The executive rules that are issued to minimize the effect of ASFV in the country’s economy
are EO 128 (Temporarily Modifying the Rates of Import Duty on Fresh, Chilled or Frozen
Meat of Swine Under Section 1611 Of Republic Act No. 10863), EO 124 (Imposition of
Mandated Price Ceiling on Selected Pork and Chicken Products in the National Capital Region
from February 8, 2021 to April 8, 2021), and EO 105 (Creation of the National Zoning and
Movement Plan for the Prevention and Control of ASF).

In addition, the administrative rules released are the following: (1) AO 22 (Directing All
Government Agencies and Local Government Units to Strictly Implement and Comply with
The “National Zoning and Movement Plan for African Swine Fever” Under Department of
Agriculture Administrative Circular No. 12 (S. 2019), and (2) AO 7 (Implementing Guidelines
for the "Biosecurity and Surveillance Program or the “Bantay ASF sa Barangay” or “BABay
ASF”).

On the other hand, the implementation of the 1-7-10 protocol, which requires the mandatory
reporting and monitoring of affected areas, is both an authority and boundary rule.

2) Boundary Rule

The biosecurity protocol of commercial hog raisers in using different transportation vehicles
and staff in their production and marketing areas to avoid contamination of their farms from
ASFV to control the spread of the virus in the country is a boundary rule.

3) Pay-off Rule

There are two (2) pay-off rules that have been implemented to address the ASFV problem in
the country. These are: (1) the provision of indemnity fund and insurance premiums to farmers
affected by ASFV, and (2) the provision of transportation subsidy by DA to local hog
producers from Visayas and Mindanao who will deliver live hogs and whole carcasses to
Metro Manila.

Action Arena

There are three main groups of actors in the swine/pork industry. These are the pork consumers
(the general public who are utilizing pork meat products), pork producers and suppliers (backyard
and commercial hog raisers, and pork industry associations), and policy-makers and decision-
makers (Executive Department Heads, Legislators, and local government officials).

These different groups played different roles in the swine/pork industry. The first group may be
more concerned with the supply and affordability of pork meat products in the market while the
second group may give more consideration to their businesses’ profitability along the supply-

16
value chain of the product. On the other hand, the third group is geared towards crafting and
implementing policies that will address the ASFV outbreak.

Patterns of Interaction

The interactions among various actors engaged in the local pork industry may result in both
positive and negative feedback. In this study, negative feedback may include the following: (1)
conflicting perspectives between government institutions and local pork industry associations,
and (2) increase in investment costs on repopulation, breeding, and swine production.

On the other hand, the positive feedback may include the following: (1) provision of incentives
to hog raisers affected by ASF, (2) implementation of a massive information drive on ASF in
collaboration with the local government units and other national government agencies such as the
Philippine Information Agency and Land Franchising and Toll Regulatory Board, and (3)
consultation and dialogues of various stakeholders in the local swine/pork industry.

These various interactions within the local swine/pork industry may help policy-makers and
decision makers in developing the most appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures to handle,
prevent, and control the further spread of ASFV in the country.

Outcomes

The various interactions mentioned above may also result to the following outcomes: (1)
increased swine/hog production, (2) stabilization of pork meat prices, (3) increased pork supply
in the market through increase in local production and pork importation, and (4) decreased
incidents of ASFV in the country through improved handling, prevention, and control.

Evaluative Criteria

In evaluating the effectiveness of the policies, programs, and initiatives that are implemented to
handle, prevent, and control ASFV in the country, the adaptability of these measures will be the
gauge in determining if the country is successful in addressing the ASFV outbreak. In particular,
the study looked at the adoption of safety protocols and technologies for the prevention of ASFV
at both the national and local levels.

At the national level, based on the results of the study, it could be inferred that the biosecurity
protocols developed by the national government had been implemented by the LGUs and adopted
by pork industry associations, which has been modified by the latter to better fit their respective
businesses and locations. At the local level, based on the monthly National Zoning Map of ASFV,
much still needs to be done to contain the spread of ASFV. Based on the March 2021 Zoning
Map, the ASFV red zones are still continuing to spread in more areas of the country, while the
dark green zone seems to be decreasing since the start of the outbreak in the country (Appendix
1).

17
 According to Mr. Roberto Amores, Chairperson of the Committee on Agriculture and Fishery of
the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) 4, the adoption of state-of-the-art
technologies may help in addressing the problem of ASFV in the country.

C. Applying the Environmental Resource Conflict Framework

The third institutional framework in which the results of this study will be analyzed is the
Environmental Resource Conflict Framework as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4. The socio-economic and environmental impact of ASF in the Philippine local pork
industry using the Environmental Resource Conflict Resolution Framework

Anatomy of Environmental Resource Conflict

1) Ecological Complexity

Pork is a prime commodity of the human population, Thus, the ASF outbreak in the swine/pork
industry has an indirect effect on human health. ASFV does not infect humans directly, but if
the affected hogs are sold on the market or do not undergo appropriate inspection procedures,
they will cause diseases like diarrhea or food poisoning.

In addition, effluents from affected farms might also carry the virus and affect other hogs near
its vicinity, causing the virus to spread further. This could cause changes in the ecosystems of
the area and affect the health ecology of nearby ecosystems.

4
The Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) is the largest business organization in the Philippines.

18
2) Social Complexity

There are many actors involved in the swine/pork industry which could be categorized into
three groups: (1) pork consumers or the general public (the main user of the product), (2) pork
producers and suppliers (backyard farmers, commercial hog raisers, and pork industry
associations who are the most affected by the ASFV), and (3) policy-makers and decision-
makers (who are in-charge of developing and implementing policies and programs to curb the
spread of ASFV such as legislators, LGUs, and executive department heads).

3) Scientific Uncertainty

As of to date, ASF vaccines are still being developed by the Philippine government and other
countries that are affected by ASFV. In the Philippines, ASF vaccine trials started on April 23,
2021 in ten trial farms and the effect will be monitored by BAI-DA. There is also a proposal
by the DOST to create a Virology Science and Technology Institute of the Philippines whose
main function is to conduct research activities on different viruses that affect both the human
and animal population of the country. In other countries, Vietnam might have their ASF
vaccine by the third quarter of 2021, while UK scientists have already conducted its vaccine
trials where 100% of pigs immunized survived a lethal dose of the ASF virus.

4) Legal and Procedural Framework

a) Legal Framework

There are already several legislative actions that are in place to mitigate the effect of ASFV
in the country. These are (1) EO 128 series of 2021 (Temporarily Modifying the Rates of
Import Duty on Fresh, Chilled or Frozen Meat of Swine Under Section 1611 Of Republic
Act No. 10863), (2) EO 124 series of 2021 (Imposition of Mandated Price Ceiling on
Selected Pork and Chicken Products in the National Capital Region from February 8, 2021
to April 8, 2021), and (3) EO 105 series of 2020 (Creation of the National Zoning and
Movement Plan for the Prevention and Control of ASF).

There is also a pending Senate Resolution endorsed by DA to the Office of the President
calling for a declaration of an ASF State of Emergency, which remains unacted upon as of
this writing.

b) Procedural Framework

Several procedural frameworks were also put in place to prevent the further spread of
ASFV. These are: AO 22 (Directing All Government Agencies And Local Government
Units To Strictly Implement And Comply With The “National Zoning And Movement Plan
For African Swine Fever” under DA’s Administrative Circular No. 12 (S. 2019), (2) AO 7
(Implementing Guidelines for the "Biosecurity and Surveillance Program or the “Bantay
ASF sa Barangay” or “BABay ASF”), (3) implementation of the 1-7-10 protocol, (4) hog
repopulation program (INSPIRE), (5) swine multiplier (Breeder) program, (5)
transportation subsidy, (6) indemnity fund and insurance premium, and (7) accreditation of
ASF testing laboratories.

19
Environmental Resource Conflict Resolution

Several resolution modes were employed to resolve this environmental resource conflict. The first
one is through a collaborative process through the National Task Force on Animal-borne Diseases
(NTFAD) to ensure the collaboration of various government agencies involved in the swine/pork
industry.

The second conflict resolution mode is the provision of lending programs in support of ASF
prevention and control through DA’s Agricultural Credit Policy Council (ACPC), and
government financial institutions such as Landbank of the Philippines and Development Bank of
the Philippines.

The third conflict resolution mode is the roll-out of 100 locally-developed ASF testing kits to
local piggery owners to check if their hogs are infected. The kits had been developed by scientists
from Central Luzon State University.
Lastly, an information drive was launched on ASFV in partnership with various government units
at both local and national level such as the Philippine Information Agency and the Land
Transportation and Franchising Regulatory Board.

D. Gaps on the various socio-economic and environmental policies and programs on ASF

However, despite these measures implemented by the national government in collaboration with
the pork industry associations, there are still many challenges that confront the sector in the
handling, prevention, and control of ASFV in the country. Some of these are enumerated below:

1) Limited budgetary allocation on the establishment of facilities for virus isolation, genome
sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis (World Organization for Animal Health, 2020)
2) Rampant trading of infected (live or processed) hogs in the country, whose statistical
data/information was not available in government data collection/repository agencies (DA
Communications Group, 2019; Reuters, 2019).
3) Food processing plants (particularly those that manufacture meat products) are not under
the regulatory oversight of DA, but with FDA. Hence, processed pork meat by-products
could not be regularly monitored by DA for the ASF virus (DA Communications Group,
2019).
4) Lack of access to comprehensive trainings/workshops & knowledge of current international
standards pertinent to disease diagnosis, particularly on ASF (World Organization for
Animal Health, 2020)
5) Influx of samples submission for ASF testing and other differential diagnoses at the
National Laboratory (ADDRL) which may not be analyzed on time due to the volume of
samples submitted to the laboratory (World Organization for Animal Health, 2020)
6) Conflicting perspective of the DA and pork industry associations in the classification of
hog farming (only backyard and commercial farming classification, no intermediary
classification like semi-commercial farming), which limited the number of beneficiaries for
the indemnity fund given by the government (Chen, 2021)
7) Implementation of the national ASF control does not complement some of the local
government policies (e.g. checkpoints) (DILG, 2021).
8) ASFV exhibited resiliency characteristics in affected pigs and its environs, which could be
carried over to pork meats and its by-products (FAO, 2017; Dixon et al., 2020)

20
IV. Conclusion and Research Perspectives

In conclusion, the effect of the Philippine government’s policies, programs and initiatives that are
being implemented to handle, prevent, and control ASF virus in the country is still wanting and
the minimization of ASF incidents has yet to be felt by the swine/pork industry sector. This is
because most of the mitigation initiatives undertaken by the national government only started in
the first semester of 2021, majority of which are stop-gap measures only. Considering that ASFV
has been around the country since September of 2019, it is no wonder that most preventive
measures to control the spread of ASFV in the country have been ineffective, which resulted in
the virus continuously spreading to most parts of the country.

The government should be serious in its campaign to prevent the further spread of ASF by strictly
implementing biosecurity safety protocols, strengthening the national government’s surveillance
and monitoring in the transport of live pigs and pork products in partnership with LGUs and pork
industry associations in line with the ASF National Zoning and Movement Plan, use state-of-the-
art technologies to combat the ASFV, prohibiting swill feeding in the country, amendment to the
ASF regulatory supervision of DA in the food processing industry through the National Meat
Inspection Service (NMIS), and massive information campaign to educate the public of the
potential threat that the ASF virus may pose to human health. In addition, the capacity of Animal
Disease Diagnosis and Reference Laboratory (ADDRL) should be expanded to provide maximum
laboratory support to Disease Outbreak Investigation, Monitoring & Surveillance, Quarantine,
and Swine Breeder Accreditation (World Organization for Animal Health, 2020).

Thus, future research studies should focus on how to prevent the further spread of this virus.
Specifically, future research studies should study how the ASF virus could be isolated and its
resilient trait broken down, conduct genome sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. An in-depth
study of the ASF Recovery Plan of the national government should also be conducted.

21
 Acknowledgement

The completion of this research study would not have been possible without the guidance and support
extended by our course coordinator in ENS 220 (Institutions and Environment), Dr. Jessica
Villanueva-Peyraube.

The researchers would also like to express its immense gratitude to the following top level executives
engaged in the swine/pork industry and agriculture sector for their valuable inputs and for taking the
time to talk with the researchers via phone patch: Mr. Edwin Chen, President of the Pork Producers
Federation of the Philippines (ProPork); Mr. Roberto Amores, Chairperson of the Committee on
Agriculture and Fishery of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI); Dr. Ernesto
Ordonez, Convenor of Agri-Fisheries Alliance and Chairperson of Alyansa Agrikultura; and Dr.
Samuel Joseph Castro, Chairperson of the National ASF task Force.

A debt of gratitude is also owed to this study’s research team headed by Ma. Raysolyn E. Natividad,
and its members, Julius F. Bañega, Gerald C. Catambacan, and Christine Mae B. Santos, who
willingly gathered the necessary data and information essential for this study. Without their
dedicated efforts and valuable insights, this paper would not have been possible to develop within
the prescribed time frame.

The researchers would also like to thank their family and friends for their continuous support to their
endeavors, which serve as a constant source of inspiration to them.

And lastly, the researchers are forever grateful to the Lord Almighty for keeping them safe during
this pandemic, which enabled them to finish this course’s requirements in due time.

22
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25
Appendices

Appendix 1. ASFV Zoning Status in the Philippines, 2020-2021

As of March, 2020 As of September 2020

As of January 2021 As of March 2021

Source: BAI-DA, World Organization for Animal Health, and DA

26
 Appendix 2. Swine Inventory by Region, Philippines
As of April 1, 2021

Source: PSA, 2021

Appendix 3. Volume of Hog Production and Annual Growth Rate, Philippines

January-December 2018-2020

Source: PSA, 2021

27
Appendix 4. Volume of Hog Production at Current and Constant Price by Quarter, Philippines
2018-2020

Source: PSA, 2021

Appendix 5. Volume and Value of Pork Imports by Quarter, Philippines, 2018-2020

Source: PSA, 2021

28
 Appendix 6. Average Farmgate Prices of Hogs Upgraded for Slaughter, Philippines
2018-2020

Source: PSA, 2021

Appendix 7. Monthly Average Farmgate Price of Hogs Upgraded to Slaughter, Philippines,

January-March 2019-2021

Source: PSA, 2021

29
Appendix 8. Average Retail Prices of Pork Lean Meat by Month, Philippines, 2018-2020

Source: PSA, 2021

Appendix 9. Number of Culled Swine Per Year by Classification, Philippines, 2019-2021

Source: BAI-DA, 2021

30
 Appendix 10. Pork Import Profit Computation (as of March 8, 2021)

Source: ProPork, 2021

Appendix 11. List of Accredited ASF Government Diagnostic Laboratories, Philippines

Source: BAI-DA, 2021

31
Appendix 12. List of Accredited ASF Private Diagnostic Laboratories, Philippines

Source: BAI-DA, 2021

Appendix 13. Pork Producers Federation of the Philippines, Inc. (ProPork)

Directory of Members (as of June 1, 2021)

32
Source: ProPork, 2021

33