Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FINA1027 Lecture 3 Time Value of Money
FINA1027 Lecture 3 Time Value of Money
Panagiotis Panagiotou
FINA1027 Finance
Department of Accounting, Finance, and Economics
Greenwich Business School
1 Interest rates
2 Simple and Compound interest
3 Future Value
4 Present Value
5 Quoted and Effective interest rates
6 Annuities
7 Perpetuities
8 Real and Nominal interest rates
£1,000 today
or
£1,000 in 1 year?
£1,000 today
or
£1,000 in 1 year?
There are 3 reasons why a pound tomorrow is worth less than a pound today:
3 If there is any uncertainty associated with the cash flow in the future,
the less that cash flow will be valued.
Panagiotis Panagiotou (Greenwich) Time Value of Money FINA1027 (Term 1) 5 / 58
Uses of Time Value of Money
Bond valuation
Stock valuation
Investment appraisal
Financial analysis
- you demand interest as you cannot instantly spend the money you have
lent on consumption goods
- the less trustworthy person/company you lend money to, the higher the
interest rate you require as you’re less confident that you’ll get your money
back.
If you are a borrower, the interest rate tells you the amount charged for
borrowing money, expressed as a percentage of the borrowed amount.
- the higher the interest rate, the more you have to pay back
- the higher your credit risk, the higher the interest rate
Bank rate: the key interest rate in the UK, determined by the Bank of
England (BoE). It influences many other interest rates in the economy.
Panagiotis Panagiotou (Greenwich) Time Value of Money FINA1027 (Term 1) 7 / 58
Interest Calculation
1 Simple Interest: the interest earned or paid is just the original balance
of the deposit/loan times the interest rate.
- and the total balance at the end of that time period would be equal to:
Original Deposit + Interest earned = £1,000 + £300 = £1,300;
or, alternatively, £1, 000 × (1 + 10% × 3) = £1, 300;
- So over T periods, the total balance of your deposit / debt will grow to be:
X + (r × X ) × T = X + rXT = X (1 + rT ).
- and the total balance at the end of that time period would be equal to:
Original Deposit + Interest earned = £1,000 + £331 = £1,331;
or, alternatively, £1, 000 × (1 + 10%)3 = £1, 331;
- So over T periods, the total balance of your deposit / debt will grow to be:
X (1 + r )T .
Clearly: compound interest is good for savers but worrying for borrowers.
Question: we are given a cash flow of X today (we denote the present value
of that cash flow X today by PV). What value will this cash flow grow to if
invested at interest rate r for T periods?
FV = PV × (1 + r )T
This amount is called the future value (FV) of X, assuming an interest rate of r
and an investment period of T.
Sensitivity analysis: how would your answer change if interest rates turn
out to be 2% per year or 10% per year?
The baseline answer, assuming a 5% rate, and then the sensitivity analysis
are given below;
- Equivalently, how much would a bank lend you today if you promise to give
them a repayment of X in T years.
FV
FV = PV × (1 + r )T ⇒ PV =
(1 + r )T
Note: if you took exactly this present value and banked it for T years at
rate r you would end up with: PV (r , T ) × (1 + r )T = FV
Panagiotis Panagiotou (Greenwich) Time Value of Money FINA1027 (Term 1) 14 / 58
Present Value Computations
It is the reward that investors demand for accepting delayed rather the
immediate gratification.
We will also call the discount rate the interest rate or required rate of
return or opportunity cost of capital.
Discount rates also account for the riskiness of an investment and can
be adjusted to better reflect the uncertainties about reassessments
through time of the future values from an investment.
Panagiotis Panagiotou (Greenwich) Time Value of Money FINA1027 (Term 1) 16 / 58
Discount Factors
When computing present values we often make use of an object called a
discount factor.
Discount factors vary with the interest rate and with the investment
horizon.
Present values and discount factors: using the definition of the discount
factor we can rewrite the present value as;
1
PV = DF × FV = × FV
(1 + r )T
Panagiotis Panagiotou (Greenwich) Time Value of Money FINA1027 (Term 1) 17 / 58
Example #4: calculating present values
Scenario: you are a supplier of aircraft parts to Boeing. In 2 years you are
due to receive £5,000,000 as payment for components you have supplied.
How much is this worth in current terms assuming the current annual
interest rate of 1%?
Sensitivity analysis: how would your answer change if interest rates turn
out to be 5% per year?
The baseline answer and then the sensitivity analysis are given below;
1
PV(1%, 2y) = 5, 000, 000 × (1+0.01)2
= £4, 901, 480.25
1
PV(5%, 2y) = 5, 000, 000 × (1+0.05)2
= £4, 535, 147.39
Clearly, even over short horizons, with reasonably high interest rates, PV’s
can be much smaller than actual future CF’s.
The table is used by locating the appropriate interest rate on the horizontal and the
appropriate number of periods on the vertical.
Recall that:
1
PV = DF × FV = × FV
(1 + r )T
Until now we’ve thought about single CF’s (current or future) only.
Most investments involve multiple CFs received and paid at different
points in time.
Positive CFs are receipts and negative CFs are payments.
How do you compute present values for these more complicated
streams of money?
Solution:
T
X CFt
NPV =
(1 + r )t
t=1
1 1 1
= CF1 × + CF2 × + ... + CFT ×
(1 + r )1 (1 + r )2 (1 + r )T
| {z } | {z } | {z }
DF DF DF
Again, note that some of the CFt might be negative (if they are payments not
receipts).
Panagiotis Panagiotou (Greenwich) Time Value of Money FINA1027 (Term 1) 22 / 58
Example #5: calculating the PV of a stream of CFs
Scenario: I promise to give you £10,000 at the end of each of the next 3
years.
How much are you willing to pay me now in order to benefit from these future
payments? Assume a fixed annual interest rate of 6% and that I’m completely
trustworthy.
Solution: compute the NPV of the promised cashflow stream. This is;
So the CFs I have promised you are worth £26,730.12 in current terms.
1 1 1
= 10, 000 × + 10, 000 × + 10, 000 ×
(1 + 0.06)1 (1 + 0.06)2 (1 + 0.06)T
| {z } | {z } | {z }
DF DF DF
= 10,000 × 2.673
= 26, 730
Convention:
The way in which this is done varies across financial instruments and
markets.
In this course we will adopt the convention below (which is also fairly
common in real markets).
Example:
You make such deposit of £1 and at the end of every month re-invest the
balance at the 1-month rate.
The EAR > APR when the compounding period is less than a year.
Example:
If a bank pays 5% interest semi-annually, customers receive 2.5% of
their deposit every 6 months.
5% 2
The bank deposit really earns 1 + 2 −1 = 5.0625%
as m → ∞ ⇒ EAR → eAPR − 1
Scenario: Calculate the EAR if the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 12%
and interest is paid quarterly.
Scenario: Calculate the EAR if the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is 12%
and interest is paid quarterly.
Answer:
m
APR
EAR =1+ −1
m
4
12%
= 1+ −1
4
= 0.1255 or 12.55%
Answer:
m
APR
End-of-year wealth = X × 1 +
m
12
24%
= £10 × 1 +
12
= £12.68
Compounding Compounding
Frequency Periods APR EAR
(m)
0.05 1
Annual 1 5.00% (1 + 1 ) − 1 = 5.00%
0.05 2
Semi-annual 2 5.00% (1 + 2 ) − 1 = 5.0625%
0.05 4
Quarterly 4 5.00% (1 + 4 ) − 1 = 5.0945%
0.05 12
Monthly 12 5.00% (1 + 12 ) − 1 = 5.1162%
0.05 52
Weekly 52 5.00% (1 + 52 ) − 1 = 5.1246%
0.05 365
Daily 365 5.00% (1 + 365 ) − 1 = 5.1267%
The FV equation applies for an investment over one year with annual
compounding.
FV = PV × (1 + r )T
For an investment over one or more years and less than annual
compounding, the FV formula becomes:
r mT
FV = PV × (1 + )
m
Answer:
r mT
FV = PV × (1 + )
m
12% 4×5
= £5, 000 × (1 + )
4
= £5, 000 × (1.03)20
= £5, 000 × 1.8061
= £9, 030.50
Fix a deposit size of X and an (annual) quoted interest rate of r. If there are m periods
per year then, at the end of the year, the balance of one’s investment is:
m
r
X 1+
m
Answer:
If you are told that the continuously-compounded interest rate is r then the
present value is:
FV 1
PV = = FV × rt = FV × e−rT
erT e
Scenario: The State Lottery is going to pay you £100,000 at the end of four
years. If the annual continuously compounded rate of interest is 8%, what is
the present value of this payment?
Scenario: The State Lottery is going to pay you £100,000 at the end of four
years. If the annual continuously compounded rate of interest is 8%, what is
the present value of this payment?
Answer:
1
PV = FV ×
ert
1
= £100, 000 ×
e8%×4
1
= £100, 000 ×
1.3771
= £72, 616.37
We can also use some shortcuts in certain cases to make our lives easier.
Examples of these are:
Consider an asset that promises a fixed nominal cashflow at the end of every
period from now until the end of time. This is a perpetuity.
Call the fixed cashflow C and assume that the 1-period interest rate is fixed at
r. Then the PV of the perpetuity is:
∞ ∞
X C X 1
PVp = t
= C×
(1 + r ) (1 + r )t
t=1 t=1
It can be shown that this infinite sum can be written as: Proof
C
PVp =
r
Scenario: If interest rates are at 5% per annum and someone promises you
£100 per year forever, that cashflow stream is worth:
C 100
PVp = r = 0.05 = £2,000 in present value terms.
War loans: in late 2014 and early 2015 the UK government repaid undated
(perpetual) bonds that had been issued by previous UK governments to
finance, amongst other things, the First World War.
Details: the WW1 debt was, in total around £1.9 billion with a 3.5% annual
interest rate. The debt was perpetual and was originally issued in 1932.
Replacement: the undated debt was replaced with standard fixed lifetime
gilts issued at relatively low interest rates (given current economic
conditions). Plans were made and executed to take all undated UK bonds
and replace them in the same way. Some of these other undated bonds were
first issued in the 18th century.
Links:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-to-repay-the-nations-first-world-war-debt
https://www.ft.com/content/94653f60-60e8-11e4-894b-00144feabdc0
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/dec/03/treasury-repay-war-debts-bonds-uk
Assuming that all payments are made at year end, and the annual interest
rate is fixed at 3%, how much should she expect to pay to the annuity
provider today?
Solution: the annual payment (C) is £25,000, the constant interest rate (r ) is
3%, and the term (T ) is 15 years. So:
1 1 1 1
PVA = C − = 25, 000 − = £298,448.38
r r (1 + r )T 0.03 0.03(1 + 0.03)15
If the first instalment was received immediately and the interest rate was 9%,
how much was the prize worth? Assume that payments are made at the end
of the year.
Solution: the annual payment (C) is £194 million divided by 25 years = £7.76
million, the constant interest rate (r ) is 9%, and the term (T ) is 25 years. So:
1 1 1 1
PVA = C − = 7.76 − = £76.23m
r r (1 + r )T 0.09 0.09(1 + 0.09)25
But payments are actually beginning of year so the PV of the cashflows is;
At the end of one period one is promised a cash flow of C and at the end of
each subsequent period, the cashflow promised grows at rate g.
Thus the second cash ow is C(1 + g), the third is C(1 + g)2 , and so on...
Again, if we assume that the constant one-period interest rate is r , then the
present value of a Perpetuity with growth: is;
∞
X C(1 + g)t−1 C
PVp = = Proof
(1 + r )t r −g
t=1
Valuation: use exactly the same trick as when valuing a no-growth annuity
1 Value a perpetuity with growth where the first payment is made one period from
now.
2 Value a perpetuity with growth where the first payment is made T + 1 periods
from now.
3 The cash flows from the annuity with growth equal the cashflows from (1) minus
the cashflows from (2).
4 Thus the PV of the annuity with growth is the PV of (1) minus the PV of (2).
If the first cashflow is C, the cashflows grow at rate g and the one-period
discount rate is r then the PV of the growing annuity is;
Inflation rate: the (usually annual) rate at which the level of prices in the
economy grows. Denote it by π.
Nominal interest rate: the rate at which the balance of a deposit grows
in cash terms. Denote it by r.
Real interest rate: the rate at which the balance of a deposit grows in
purchasing power terms. Denote it by i.
Comments:
(1 + r )
(1 + i) =
(1 + π)
(1 + r ) = (1 + i) × (1 + π) ⇒ (1 + r ) = 1 + i + π + iπ
When rates are low, iπ will be very small. Thus we ignore it and obtain;
(1 + r ) ≈ 1 + i + π ⇒ i ≈ r − π
Comments:
If the nominal interest rate is below the inflation rate, then a deposit is
losing money in purchasing power terms. On the flipside, a debt will
shrink in real terms if r < π.
Note: the larger are rates, the bigger the approximation error in the
approximate real rate calculation above.
Thus,
∞
X ∞
X
t
xPVp = Cx x + x = Cx xt
t=2 t=1
and therefore;
x C
PVp = C =
1−x r
Back
The value of a perpetuity, paying C per year with the first payment in 1 year is;
C
PV1 =
r
The value of a perpetuity paying C per year and with a first payment in T+1
years is:
1 C
PV2 =
(1 + r )T r
The T year annuity has value equal to PV1 minus PV2. So;
C 1 C 1 1
PVA = PV1 − PV2 = − = C −
r (1 + r )T r r r (1 + r )T
Back
(1+g)
where x = (1+r ) . This implies that:
∞ ∞
C X C X t
xPVp = x+ xt = x
1+r 1+r
t=2 t=1
Subtracting the result of this second equation from that of the first we get;
∞ ∞
C X C X t C
PVp − xPVp = 1+ xt − x =
1+r 1+r (1 + r )
t=1 t=1
And finally;
1 C (1 + r ) C C
PVp = = =
1 − r )1 + r ) (r − g) (1 + r ) r −g
Back