Analysis of Voltage Profile to determine
Energy Demand using Monte Carlo algorithms and
Markov Chains (MCMC)
Edwin M. García Alexander Águila Idi Isaac
Universidad Politécnica Universidad Politécnica Universidad Pontificia
Salesiana & Ecuador Salesiana & Ecuador Bolivariana &Colombia
egarcia@ups.edu.ec aaguila@ups.edu.ec idi.isaac@upb.edu.co jorgew.gonzalez@upb.edu.co gabriel.lopez@upb.edu.co
Abstract― At present, energy distribution companies seek to
improve service and implement alternatives to determine the
capability of distribution system devices that allow to cover
electric demand. This paper proposes a stochastic analysis to
manage the demand response energy, depending on the voltage
curve profiles established by historical measurements. The
proposal is based on the stochastic prediction of energetic demand
using Monte Carlo algorithms with Markov Chains (MCMC),
from the analysis of the voltage profile as a deterministic variable.
The analysis is associated with the prediction of the maximum
power required to satisfy the peak demand period in distribution
systems with predominance of residential load, also seeking the
planning of the networks to increase efficiency, quality and
reliability of power supply in peak hours, in order to reduce the
contingencies in the operation of distribution networks in periods
of peak demand, especially in systems where the residential load
is predominant, which has been taking considerable growth, due
to the insertion of electric cookers.
Index Terms-- Demand Response, Distribution Systems, Monte
Carlo, Markov Chains, Stochastic Analysis, Voltage Profile.
I. INTRODUCTION
The management of electricity demand is becoming an
increasingly important issue and certainly critical in recent
years due to substantial increase in the electric charge, mainly
in the residential sector with the use of new technologies, such
as electric vehicles , induction cookers , new generation home
appliances for the consumer comfort , without neglecting the
commercial and residential loads [1].
The growth of energy demand causes inefficiency in the
power system, as well as operating expenses in the
construction of new plants and the expansion of their networks
without good planning, and the excessive cost of fossil fuels as
power sources for conventional generators. In some countries
the energy matrix is composed mostly of these types of
generators, while in other countries, these generators come into
operation only when there are demand peaks at certain
times[2]–[5].
The demand management is a program that is embedded in
systems such as the DSM (Demand -Side Management), which
commonly refer to programs implemented by public service
companies to control energy consumption on the client side.
Most existing programs of demand management mainly focus
on the interactions between a service provider and its
customers / users[6], [7].
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Jorge W. González Gabriel López
Universidad Pontificia Universidad Pontificia
Bolivariana &Colombia Bolivariana &Colombia
The infrastructure of the existing electric system has evolved
just a little [8]. It is also important to mention that the energy
industry has been facing significant challenges in terms of
environmental issues, safety and public service management;
so the smart grids can be implemented as a power network of
generation with a green, reliable and intelligent system that is
the goal of transformation.
Good management also requires the availability of fast and
reliable information. Therefore, intelligent networks (or micro
grids) involve the integration of power management controllers
, generally called smart meters[9] capable of providing detailed
billing in a time interval, so that not only consumers can choose
the best rates from the various electrical companies( providing
real-time electricity prices ), but also discern between the hours
of consumption, allowing a better use of the network[10]–[12].
Furthermore, the use of data from smart meters can reduce
costs incurred by the flexible demands and anticipate future
needs at the local level. Proper demand management pursues
the main objective of supplying the amount of electricity
needed to satisfy the growing electricity demand the world
faces today[13][14], [15].
The efficient control of the balance that must exist between
the consumption and supply of energy requires an analysis of
intelligent management that can be achieved with the effective
creation of load profiles and voltage, through a detailed
historical analysis of the data load network which is being
studied.
Figure 1 shows the extent of the data which are analyzed to
determine the load profiles the suburb has.
The work focuses on demand management, from
measurements made on the primary lines of a distribution
circuit. This intelligent network allowed us to determine the
behavior of users and the demand curve, from the creation of
the voltage and charge in a range of twenty four hours,
modeling the behavior of the demand from a stochastic
analysis using Markov chains and Monte Carlo [4], [6].
The proposed model has shown that the Markov chain model
produces patterns of activity and the change of the state is
represented by Monte Carlo, which through its random
variation allows us to realistically represent the energy
consumption of a residential neighborhood. Patterns of
realistic demand are generated from the voltage profile in the
primary circuits in a residential neighborhood, as shown in B. Monte Carlo Simulation.
Figure 1[16][17].
Monte Carlo simulation is based on the generation of random
values which are represented as finite random points,
VOLTAGE PROFILE distributed uniformly over the given domain. This enables to
RESIDENTIAL AREA
change a complex combinatorial problem into a simpler
problem. This method is used for modeling the behavior of
electricity demand by a reasonable estimate for 24 hours a day
using flexible loads [14].
Through this simulation a base of probability distribution is
generated, which creates independent and random values that
are applied to the weights that Markov chains would take.

BUILDING COMPANY
ELECTRIC POWER
DISTRIBUTOR

Fig 1: Determination of load profiles.

In section II the model applied by Markov chains and Monte

Carlo is presented, determining the necessary equations to
identify the load profile of a residential neighborhood. Besides,
the demand management is analyzed from the voltage profiles.
In section III we present the curve of voltage profile and the
programming, using pseudo-code to determine the load profile
of the area. In section IV we analyze results. Finally, we
present the conclusions of our work.

II. STATE OF ART.

A. Markov chains and Monte Carlo Model.

Methods based on Markov and Monte Carlo chain (MCMC)
are a stochastic tool to model the behavior of random variables,
such as the electricity demand [10]. This method is based on
statistical data which must be treated and refined to eliminate
possible errors in modeling. For this reason, Markov chains are
used to model the transition probabilities, or the probability of
transition, from the current state to the following. These
transition probabilities depend only on the current situation and
not on the sequence of previous states. A visual representation
of a Markov chain is shown in Fig. 2 [18]
Fig 3: Example using Monte Carlo method.
III. MODELING.
A. Profiles of the demand from voltage profile (MCMC)
The modeling of Markov chain is an autoregressive process that can
be used to generate synthetic sequences for modeling stochastic load
profiles. In particular, it is suitable for modeling systems where the
current state of a sequence is highly correlated with the immediately
preceding state, having a large sample of data. These sequences of
random variables are presented in equation (1) [17].

( = | = , = ,……
0,7
0,3 = , = ) ( 1)
ES .
EST. = ( = |
3
EST
EST.
Monte Carlo method generates a random variable known as
1
X, by using the probability distribution ( ), This method is
0,4 EST. used to obtain a function that represents the density of an event,
EST.
EST. 4 as shown in equation (2) [19].
0,5 2
ℎ( ) ( 2)
( )=

0,8 Fig. Where:

Fig 2. Representation of Markov chains. h(x) = Known Function.

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C = Normalized Constant.
For this, it must be analyzed in a domain of S, as shown in
equation (3). Markov chains are used to model the transition
probabilities, or the probability of transition from the current
state to the next one [20]. These transition probabilities depend
only on the current situation and not on the sequence of the
prior states of the current situation. A visual representation of
a Markov chain is shown in Fig. 2. [8]
For this it must be analyzed in a domain of S, as shown in
equation (3).
( ) =1
ℎ are related in an inverse way, as a product of the voltage drop that
Where:
π (x) = Probability of distribution.
h = Function.
Markov chains method allows developing a chain through
spaces S and a stationary distribution, as shown in equation (4).
efficiency, is capacity management and regulation of the voltage
profiles [22], [23].
The management of installed capacity is associated with optimizing
network devices depending on the current and future real demand,
with the planning of improvement measures in the redesign of
electrical networks to raise the performance of these systems. [24],
[25]. Voltage profile regulation to raise the quality of electricity is
another important parameter that is linked to the management of
demand. The high consumption of electricity can deteriorate the
power quality; for this reason, it is very important to manage demand
and voltage profiles in a joint analysis, to optimize the processes of
generation, transmission and energy consumption [26][27]–[29].
( 3)
Both, the load profile and the voltage profile in an electrical network,
occurs in the transmission of energy with the load growth, which
demands current values that will generate losses, mainly by Joule
effect, as described in ( 7) [30] .
Power losses in a distribution network for a charge state x on a
stretch of circuit; resistance of the phase and neutral conductors
Rl and Rn respectively and a number of phases Nf, are given
by:

{( ): ∈ }, ( 4)
= { : = 1,2,3 … . , } ∆ , = ∗ | , , | +

Where: ( 7)
= Random variable.
n = Number of transitions ∗ ( , , )

With the domain S, if X belongs to the domain, for

( ) Where:
, , ∈ the transition probabilities in n steps of X, as
I i,y,x = current flowing through phase I, in the section and the state
shown in (5) [9].
of charge x.
( )
lim = lim ( )= ) In (7) we can see that with the demand increase the values of
( 5) circulating currents raise, and consequently power losses, bringing
= ( ) about voltage drops in the network that could deteriorate the voltage
profile below the permissible parameters to ensure the quality of
Applying for determining the power demand from the energy [31], [32].
voltage profiles, a random vector X should be generated,
depending on k as shown in equation (6)[19][21]. Voltage drops mainly depend on the values of circulating
currents and the specific resistance of the electrical conductor
/X1,… …. (resistive and inductive) [33], [34].
,
( 6) This preliminary analysis of energy efficiency and power
~ quality is the basis for the process of demand management,
( . . 1, … . , , ,… ) aimed at correcting these two fundamental factors [23] [35].

The joint analysis of load profiles and voltage profiles allows

Where: us to project management demand for managing the installed
Xi = Random vector. capacities and to manage measurement processes theoretically,
k = Probability distribution. optimizing human and technological resources, as described in
πi = Samples the case study [8], [36], [37].

To determine the profiles of demand, we start from the

B. Demand management using voltage profiles. voltage profile taken from the main power lines of a residential
circuit, as shown in Figure 2.
One of the objectives of the management demand, apart from
predicting and regulating consumption cycles to raise energy

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 Fig 4. Voltage profile. Fig 5. Demand modeling based on the profile.
Pseudocode.
Based on the mathematical model of Markov Chains and
Monte Carlo, we can determine the curve of electric energy IV. ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS.
demand [38] The states of the chains are presented in an
interval t of each hour. The randomness of Monte Carlo is for The analysis of the results obtained aims at characterizing
transitions between states, which is represented in the and determining the balance of the load in the distribution
pseudocode [7], [14], [19], [20], [39], [40][21]. network in the course of a typical full day (24 hours) to
implement the optimal process of demand management.
Through statistical analysis of measurements, we determine
Loud Profile by Markov and Monte Carlo the pattern of daily consumption of electric energy in the
Initializes t (0:1:24) studied distribution network, where there is a high prevalence
of residential load and load capacity should be managed,
Initializes P, X, k
assessing the impact of the voltage profiles created with
Markov and Monte Carlos on the demand pattern achieved. It
First: generates the transition states. is also necessary to consider the analysis of the maximum
power demand, load factor and demand factor.
( = | = , = ,……
= , = ) Case study.

This network of analysis has suffered a considerable

Second: generates a probability distribution. increase, as a result of the insertion of electrical cookers in the
( ) = ℎ( )/ residential sector. This growth is reflected in the great variation
Third: Transition probabilities. of the electricity demand in peak hours and therefore, many of
the capabilities of the installed transformers can be exceeded
For s:1 by the demand at these hours.
The implementation of the model of voltage profiles has, as
integral( ( ) ,s,1) = 1
a secondary objective, the analysis of the chargeability of
end if transformers, found in the studied distribution network.
This is a network with high prevalence of residential load,
Fourth: Random vector and one of the biggest problems faced by energy distribution
companies is to achieve an adequate demand management,
For 1:k together with the appropriate design of the nominal capacity of
the equipment installed in the network.
/X1,… , …. For electric companies, it is very difficult to measure the
end if power of the circuit transformers in their worst condition (peak
hours of the night, as shown in the load curve). This study
Fifth: Graph demands a lot of qualified personal, as well as techniques to
achieve this in precise time.
The insertion of electric cookers, growth is reflected in the
Plot (t, Xi) very large variation that has electricity demand in peak hours
and therefore many of the capabilities of the installed
Running the program, the modeling of load profile by transformers can be seen outstripped by the demand in these
Markov and Monte Carlo is presented, as shown in Figure 5. times.
In this paper we proposed that the electric company conducts
the study of chargeability of transformers through a

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measurement of instantaneous apparent power at any time of
the day, using human and technological resources during the
labor, which would be done in daytime and working hours. The
measurements obtained in this sampling to all transformers are
simulated at a given time, looking for the nominal power that
each bank of transformers will have during peak hours. They
will also complement the analysis with the voltage quality to
be delivered to the low voltage network by each transformer at
that time, discriminating in this way the low voltage areas that
may exist in the distribution circuit to proceed with
improvement plans, focused on the preservation of equipment,
reduction of losses and improvement of voltage profiles,
providing the user with greater energy efficiency and quality.
From measuring the load in the low tension side of a single-
phase transformer of 50 kVA of the analyzed circuit, held at
16:30 hours, we obtained the following results:
Ia = 178 A (current in phase A)
Ib = 175 A (current in phase A)
Vab = 214 V (Voltage between phases)
We concluded that this bank of Transformers demands an
apparent power of 37,771 kVA at that moment.
From these measurements and the analysis previously
described we found the following theoretical and predictive
results, which are validated with actual measurement at the
time of maximum peak demand.
Predictive theoretical results:
The case study transformer at 19:20 hours (time of peak
demand) must have a power of 62.19 kVA, which represents
an overload of 124.38 % of its nominal capacity, as shown in
Figure 6. Three measurements made on the same transformer
at the exact time of peak demand, give an average value of 58.7
kVA, which returns an error of 5.6 % due to the variable nature
of the charges.
Fig 6. Analysis of chargeability depending on demand.
In the same way, it was estimated the voltage that would
exist between the hours of peak demand depending on the
voltage measurement and the value obtained was 208.73 Volts,
value was checked with actual measurements at peak demand
and with this data it was declared this area as a zone with low
voltage in the secondary network analysis.
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CONCLUSIONS
The study of the load profiles enables the energy
management and the verification of the chargeability of the
different equipment that form distribution systems, such as
transformers, lines, protections, among others; being able to
make timely decisions to avoid damage to the equipment.
By using these mathematical models (Markov chains and
Monte Carlo) we were able to adequately simulate the
functioning of a residential distribution circuit and generate a
response to energy demand through energy management.
Through the creation of load and voltage profiles, we
implemented a sampling method in working hours, which
allowed to use all human and technological resources of the
electrical company, for the analysis of a distribution circuit
with predominantly residential load, that had had a
considerable growth due to the delivery of electrical cooking
equipment to the population, which raised the maximum
demand above the nominal values of equipment and
conductors. It became very difficult to make all the
measurements in each transformer bank in peak demand hours,
and for this reason this method of sampling was implemented.
It allowed obtaining very accurate results of loading conditions
during peak hours, using management demand as well as
capacity and voltage profile management to diagnose the
circuit and propose measures for improvement and redesign of
these networks, with the aim of improving the efficiency and
quality of electricity.
The results obtained in the previous investigation to validate
the method were successful, averaging 5.6% error, which was
precisely caused by the variable nature of residential loads.
This tool provides a good approximation of studies of
chargeability of equipment and conductors in maximum
demand, through measures that do not necessarily have to be
taken in peak demand hours. The restriction to the method is
focused on the fact that the analysis must be performed to loads
sharing the typical demand curve of the study. In this case, it
was performed to houses belonging to a circuit with a 96 %
pure residential load.
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