Atw202404 DL

MARCH/APRIL 2024 AviationWeek.
com/ATW
GOING BIG
United Airlines’ grand
plan takes shape
CEO INTERVIEW
Croatia Airlines’
Jasmin Bajic
TRAFFIC JAM
Europe’s ATC
shortage means
more delays
HYDROGEN LEADER
EasyJet explores an
alternative to SAF
CAPA PERSPECTIVE
Opportunity and NAVIGATING
TURBULENCE
uncertainty in
Latin America
Latin America’s challenging
aviation landscape
IFC2
The World’s Leading Route

Development Consultants
Services and expertise dedicated to growing
your air service network
From route trafﬁc forecasts and collaborative partnership solutions,

to top quality training courses, ASM can help you achieve your
route development goals.
For more information go to asm-global.com

or contact Melissa Crum at +1 (913) 284-2951 | melissa.crum@aviationweek.com
March/April 2024 | Volume 61 | Number 2
12 COVER STORY
NAVIGATING TURBULENCE
Political influence continues to loom large on
Latin America’s aviation landscape.
by David Casey
ALSO
18 FACING HEADWINDS 20 AFTER THE STORM
Brazil’s largest airlines work their way Colombian market shows ‘tremendous
through consolidation, restructurings. growth’ following difficult stretch.
by Lori Ranson by Aaron Karp
EGT/ISTOCK
FEATURES
23 SUMMER SQUEEZE 40 BETTING ON HYDROGEN

Capacity constraints will prevent a full SAF is aviation’s go-to solution for reaching
recovery within Europe’s short-haul carbon net-zero targets; this airline is
market this summer. pursuing alternatives.
by David Casey by Graham Warwick
28 BETTING BIG
42 THE BIG CLOG
CEO Scott Kirby goes all in on a quest Europe’s air traffic control corridors are
to make United Airlines the biggest and congested and could become worse.
best. by Alan Dron
by Chris Sloan
34 AIMING FOR SAFETY

Africa hasn’t met its Abuja Safety
Targets, but real progress is being made.
by Victoria Moores
On The Cover: Bogota El Dorado International Airport. Photo: Markus Mainka/Alamy Stock Photo
Aviationweek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 1

March/April 2024 | Volume 61 | Number 2
6
10 10
BUSINESS/AUDIENCE
DEVELOPMENT
CONTACT INFORMATION
PUBLISHER
AIR TRANSPORT WORLD
MANAGING DIRECTOR, MEDIA &
MARKETING SERVICES
Iain Blackhall
Aviation Week Network
48 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210
Washington, DC 20037
JOE RAEDLE/GETTY IMAGES CROATIA AIRLINES Tel. 202-517-1100
iain.blackhall@aviationweek.co.uk
PRESIDENT
AVIATION WEEK
5 Editorial 45 Key Routes Gregory Hamilton

greg.hamilton@informa.com
Pointless flight bans A selection of 50 new SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT DATA,
by David Casey routes starting in March INTELLIGENCE & MEDIA
and April 2024. Anne McMahon
anne.mcmahon@aviationweek.com
6 Analysis
46
SENIOR AUDIENCE
False Choices Routes Insights DEVELOPMENT MANAGER
Short-sighted merger rejections New Horizons Tyler Motsinger
tyler.motsinger@informa.com
have real-world consequences. SAS, China Eastern and Air
by Aaron Karp France are seeking out new SUBSCRIPTIONS
markets. Printed in USA Copyright © 2024
7
by Informa Media, Inc., all rights reserved.
Quotables by David Casey Air Transport World (ISSN 0002-2543)
is published 6 times a year –
Best quotes heard Jan/Feb, Mar/Apr, May/June,
from industry leaders. 48 ATW Industry Awards July/Aug, Sept/Oct and Nov/Dec
by Informa Media, Inc., 22701
ATW looks back on 50 years W. 68th Terrace, Ste. 100, Shawnee, KS
8
66226-3583, USA. Periodicals Postage
CAPA Perspective of Award recipients and Paid at Kansas City, MO, and at additional
mailing offices.
A Challenging Dance key industry events. Submit payment for subscriptions and/
Is Latin American aviation by Linda Blachly or single copies via http://atwonline.com/

catalog. One-year subscription rates start
at US$69 for the digital edition, and at US$89
making the right moves?
51
for US and US$129 outside the US for the
Customer Service print edition. Single issues are US$15/copy.
10
The annual World Airline Report issues
CEO Interview Advertiser index are US$50/copy. For subscription related
questions or for alternate payment options,
Jasmin Bajic please contact atw@aviationweek.com.
Croatia Airlines 52 News Briefs Qualified subscriptions are limited to
management personnel in airlines and
by Kurt Hofmann Slow progress for European selected industries at the discretion of
the publisher.
airline consolidation Canadian GST #R126431964 Canada Post
Publications Mail Agreement
No: 40612608. Canada return address:
The Mail Group, P.O. Box 25542,
London, ON N6C 6B2, Canada.
POSTMASTER: Send address changes to
Customer Service, Air Transport World
22701 W. 68th Terrace, Ste. 100, Shawnee,
KS 66226-3583. Phone: 913 850 6929 Toll
Free: 877 386 6343 Fax: 913 967 1901
CONNECT WITH ATW

Follow @ATWOnline
Facebook facebook.com/AirTransportWorld
LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/groups/Air-Transport-World
Access ATW online An Informa business
Aviationweek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 3

4
Ask us about our Tracked Aircraft
Utilization Module and Valuations Data!
Aircraft Insight to Grow Your Business
Fleet Discovery offers dynamic access to in-depth aircraft fleet intelligence.

Containing over 220,000 commercial and business aviation aircraft, including more than
840 aircraft and 170 engine types, this powerful tool enables users to:
Identify New Research the Complete Analyze Industry Generate

Business Opportunities Aircraft Lifecycle Trends Additional Sales
Learn More About Fleet Discovery

Visit aviationweek.com/FDintel to schedule your demo.
Or call Melissa Crum at +1 913 284 2951 | melissa.crum@aviationweek.com

Editorial
EDITORIAL STAFF
Pointless
flight bans
David Casey | Routes Editor-in-Chief
Editor-in-Chief
david.casey@informa.com
Karen Walker
+1 703-656-6300
karen.walker@informa.com
S
Routes Editor-in-Chief
David Casey
pain is the latest European on some short-haul domestic flights.
David.casey@informa.com
country to propose a ban The French policy, introduced in May
Managing Editor
Jack Wittman
on certain domestic flights 2023, at present only restricts ser-
jack.c.wittman@informa.com as part of efforts to reduce carbon vices between Paris Orly Airport and
Senior Associate Editor emissions, following in the footsteps Bordeaux, Lyon and Nantes.
Linda Blachly of France. Although this ban has been largely
linda.blachly@informa.com
The plan has been under consider- ineffectual, it is clear that govern-
Europe Bureau Chief ation since 2021 and would see the ments, particularly in Europe, are
Victoria Moores
Tel: +44 (0) 7966 389 339
country scrap domestic routes with a searching for quick solutions to the
victoria.moores@informa.com high-speed rail alternative that takes climate crisis—and aviation is in the
Europe/Middle East Editor less than 2.5 hours. The measure firing line. The trend to curb demand
Alan Dron is intended to end short city-to-city for flights through headline-grabbing
South East Asia & China Editor flights, putting air links connecting policies is also a worrying one—and
Chen Chuanren the capital Madrid to major cities like should not be the answer. Instead,
Senior Editors Alicante, Barcelona and Valencia leaders should focus on tangible
Kurt Hofmann
under threat. goals, rather than tokenistic bans.
Aaron Karp
Chris Sloan However, the planned
restriction put forward
Director, Editorial Production
Michael Lavitt by Spain’s coalition “Leaders should focus on
Director, Content Design
Lisa Caputo
government contains
a clause that exempts tangible goals, rather
Content Designers
Thomas De Pierro
connecting flights to
international hubs,
than tokenistic bans.”
Rosa Pineda
Colin Throm
meaning that passen-
gers flying from second-
Production Editors
Jack Freifelder ary points to Madrid-Barajas Airport Likewise, the introduction of “green
Rosa Pineda and on to destinations farther afield taxes” must be channeled back into
Contributing Photographers will likely be unaffected. the sector to support the challenge of
Rob Finlayson According to Spanish media reports, transitioning to cleaner energy. So far,
Joe Pries
the flights impacted are estimated to this has not always been the case.
© Air Transport World 2024. All Rights contribute only 0.06% to the country’s As the aviation industry works
Reserved. Permission is granted to users reg- CO2 emissions. This comes after a toward net zero, governments must
istered with the Copyright Clearance Center,
Inc. (CCC) to photocopy any article, with the
study conducted by consulting firm end such political greenwashing.
exception of those for which separate copy- PwC and released by Iberia found that Instead, they need to get serious
right ownership is indicated on the first page domestic services in Spain account about investing in technological
of the article, for a base fee of $1.25 per copy of
the article and 60 cents per page, paid directly
for less than 1% of total emissions—a advancements, sustainable aviation
to the CCC, 222 Rosewood Dr., Danvers, Mass. percentage that is shrinking thanks to fuel production, improved air traffic
01923, U.S.A. (Code No. 0002-2543/04 $1.25 investments in sustainable aviation. management, and adequate financing
+ .60). Microfilm of Issues and reproductions
of issues or articles can be ordered from The
While Spain’s proposed law is in and incentives. The decarbonization of
Proquest Company, 300 North Zeeb Rd, PO its early stages, it is expected that air travel needs to accelerate—but it
Box 78, Ann Arbor, Mich. 48106, USA.; Tel: +1 the number of routes involved will cannot come at the expense of its
800-521-0600.
be negligible, mirroring France’s ban democratization.
AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 5

Analysis
False Choices
Short-sighted merger rejections January 2024. It has called the deal’s termina-
have real-world consequences. tion a victory for US travelers. But that “victory”
is highly questionable.
A US federal judge’s rejection of the proposed
merger, claiming the combined carrier would hurt
consumers and drive up fares, was reminiscent
of last year’s block of the proposed Avianca-Viva
merger by the Colombian government. In both
instances, governments weighed false choices
rather than facing real-world consequences.
A weak or failed Spirit Airlines is just as much
a threat to price-conscious consumers’ ability to
fly and enjoy low fares as a merger with JetBlue
Airways would be—and probably more so. Simi-
larly, a collapsed Viva was likely a worse deal for
consumers than a combined Avianca-Viva would
have been—especially since Avianca planned to
operate Viva as a separate, low-fare brand.
JOE RAEDLE/GETTY IMAGES
Colombian regulator Aerocivil placed such
BY AARON KARP
onerous conditions on the merger, including es-
U
S carriers JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines sentially forcing ULCC Viva out of Bogota’s El Do-
officially terminated their July 2022 merger rado Airport, that Avianca threw up its hands and
agreement in early March, bringing to a close walked away. Avianca was willing to give up 75% of
a nearly two-year saga involving a bidding war, Viva’s El Dorado slots, but that wasn’t enough for
proposed divestitures, an antitrust trial and a brief ap- Colombian regulators.
peals process.
The decision came down to a dwindling timeframe LOSS OF SERVICES
for a self-imposed summer deadline contained within Those celebrating district judge William G. Young’s
the deal’s terms, with new JetBlue CEO Joanna Ger- decision—siding with the DOJ’s view that the combi-
aghty citing an “extremely low” probability of being nation would violate antitrust law—as a big win for the
able to move the merger forward “anytime soon.” little guy, ignore or significantly downplay the conse-
“The lingering uncertainty is distracting and taking quences of Spirit limping along as a weak airline, or
our resources away from more pressing priorities— worse, collapsing altogether.
particularly our work to return to profitability and rein- “To those dedicated customers of Spirit, this one’s
vigorate our brand and culture,” Geraghty said. “With for you,” Young wrote, as if the decision itself will
the Spirit merger behind us, we can fully dedicate keep Spirit afloat and serving its current routes with
ourselves to a standalone JetBlue.” the same capacity as it does now. But that simply is
Spirit president and CEO Ted Christie concurred, not reality.
saying, “After discussing our options with our advi- Case in point: Spirit ended all service at Denver
sors and JetBlue, we concluded that current regula- International Airport (DEN) on Jan. 9, pulling out of its
tory obstacles will not permit us to close this transac- former suitor Frontier Airlines’ base market. Accord-
tion in a timely fashion under the merger agreement. ing to data provided by OAG Schedules Analyser,
We remain confident in our future as a successful Spirit served seven markets from DEN in the 2023
independent airline.” summer, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston Inter-
The US Justice Department (DOJ) sued to block continental, Los Angeles and Orlando. With those
the combination in March 2023, winning its case in markets already cut, Spirit pulled the plug this month
6 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

Quotables
on Las Vegas, which it had been serving 14X-weekly,

as well as its Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood base and
“Generally, every four
Miami in Florida. to five years there is a
With that, Frontier’s ULCC rival is gone from the
DEN market. And so Frontier has less competitive massive crisis in aviation
pressure, going up against higher-fare majors with-
out worrying about matching Spirit’s low fares.
which no one expects.”
So too with the Denver-Miami route, on which Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary.
Frontier now competes with American Airlines,
Southwest Airlines and United Airlines. With Spirit “This was not how our story was
out of the mix, there is every reason to believe fares intended to play out.”
will be higher because, again, Frontier does not
Internal memo to staff from Canadian LCC Lynx Air COO and
have to worry about matching Spirit at the low end
interim CEO Jim Sullivan as the company announced it would
of the market. cease operations Feb. 26, citing financial pressure in
During the antitrust trial in Boston, Christie told the a competitive market.
court that independent growth would not allow the
carrier to be a “relevant” competitor to the US “big
“What happened was there was
four” carriers.
Basic economy fares offered by majors, ULCCs
a glut of capacity that came into
Frontier and Allegiant Air’s growth, and newer en- Florida and Vegas, but mainly
trants such as Breeze Airways and Avelo Air, have Florida, and it was significant.
made Spirit a much more indistinguishable airline, And we had over half our airline in
weak and struggling. Florida, and it really just punished us.”
The Colombian government effectively blocked
US LCC Frontier CEO Barry Biffle explaining
the proposed merger between Avianca and Viva, a drop in pre-tax margin.
arguing it would hurt consumers to have the ULCC
acquired by its much larger competitor. But the real-
world choice, which the Colombian government “Completing the recovery
simply didn’t face up to, was to have a merged Avi- must not be an excuse for
anca-Viva or no Viva at all—not to have a strong
Viva competing with Avianca, which, again, wanted governments to forget the
to run Viva as a separate, low-fare brand. critical role of aviation to
Viva quickly disappeared from the scene last
year as the merger unraveled, leaving passengers
increasing the prosperity and
stranded at airports and 1,000 Viva workers losing well-being of people and
jobs. Around 75% of those Viva workers were then businesses the world over.”
hired by Avianca, meaning the airlines’ workforces
IATA director general Willie Walsh.
effectively merged anyway—but the low-fare brand
disappeared.
The choice in the US was not between a JetBlue- Changes in leadership overseeing
Spirit merger and a healthy Spirit giving JetBlue a Boeing 737 MAX production are
run for its money. The choice was between a emblematic of the company’s
merged carrier or Spirit being, at best, a weak player
“enhanced focus on ensuring that
in the US, if it can survive.
every airplane we deliver meets or
– Christine Boynton contributed to this article. exceeds all quality and safety
requirements. Our customers
Listen to ATW editors discuss the JetBlue-Spirit demand, and deserve, nothing less.”
situation on our Window Seat podcast at Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal.
bit.ly/3T5UbBQ.

PERSPECTIVE
A Challenging Dance
Is Latin American aviation making the right moves?
L
atin American countries pro- Additional industry consolida- It was an eventful 2023 in Mexico
vided limited or no state aid tion and restructuring will further and 2024 will likely be no different.
to airlines to offset losses reshape the region’s skies. But FAA has finally restored Mexico’s
from the COVID-19 pandemic, so it some fundamentals remain. De- safety oversight grading to Catego-
was heartening to see the region’s spite traffic growth and strong rev- ry 1, which allows Mexican airlines
early recovery, with domestic ASKs enue, the region’s airlines still find to resume growth to the US, but not
surpassing 2019 levels in the latter it difficult to deliver profitability, without sticking points. The US De-
stages of 2022. and infrastructure constraints, high partment of Transportation ordered
The trend has continued: IATA re- taxation and government interfer- Delta Air Lines to end its joint ven-
ported that Latin American airlines ence will continue to impact activi- ture with Aeromexico, a partnership
posted a 28.6% traffic rise in 2023 ties (see cover story, pg. 12). that has been in place since 2016.
over 2022.. Annual capacity climbed Before the crisis, Latin American Delta blasted the move as “unprec-
25.4% and load factor increased 2.1 airlines struggled to generate prof- edented, regulatory overreach.”
percentage points to 84.7%, the high- its. The landscape has changed Overall, however, Mexican air-
est among all the world’s regions. somewhat since then, but that lines are outlining plans for rapid
growth in the transborder market,
“Despite traffic growth and strong revenue, the region’s albeit with different approaches.
Data from CAPA and OAG show
airlines still find it difficult to deliver profitability, and that Mexico’s international ASKs
infrastructure constraints, high taxation and govern- will increase markedly year-over-
year through the first half of 2024.
ment interference will continue to impact activities.” Additionally, Mexico’s govern-
ment has enlarged its role in the
Data from the Latin American and profitability issue remains. While aviation sector throughout 2023,
Caribbean Air Transport Associa- some markets are strong—Mexico, culminating in plans to revive the
tion (ALTA) for January to November for example—others are facing Mexicana brand. Movement limits
2023 show the total number of pas- economic and social turmoil that at Mexico City International Air-
sengers who traveled to/from the IATA notes are “negatively impact- port (MEX) will push airlines to bol-
region reached 410.5 million, a 13.9% ing airline performance.” ster their presence at nearby Fe-
increase versus the same period in With capacity growth expect- lipe Ángeles International Airport
2022 and, perhaps more important- ed to outpace demand growth in (NLU), some reluctantly.
ly, up 3.8% over 2019. In November 2024, market conditions are “ex- The involvement of the Mexican
2023, Argentina exceeded its 2019 pected to remain challenging,” ac- government in the country’s avia-
international traffic levels for the first cording to IATA, and the region is tion sector has expanded consis-
time, while Brazil and Panama also expected to remain in the red this tently since President Andres Man-
achieved traffic milestones. year, albeit it while reducing losses. uel López Obrador took office in

centreforaviation.com
Latin America’s Largest Aviation Markets

(Early February 2024)
3,000,000
2,500,000
Weekly System Seats
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
bia
na
ico
ma
a
pu can
ile
r
ru
il
do
Ric
az
c
nti
Pe
Ch
x
lom
na
bli
ua
Re ini
Br
Me
s ta
ge
Pa
Ec
m
Co
Ar
Co
Do
Source: CAPA-Centre for Aviation and OAG
2018 and this will likely continue if the parent of LATAM Airlines Brazil, the previous Fernández de Kirchner
his party wins this year’s elections. LATAM Airlines Group, entered administration would wipe out the
Chapter 11 in May 2020. progress budget airlines had made
RESTRUCTURINGS Aside from some uncertainty in the country, but after a minor
AND ELECTIONS regarding the future of Aerolineas shakeout in Argentina’s low-cost
In Colombia, two airlines exited Argentinas, GOL’s restructuring sector, Flybondi and JetSMART
the market in 2023, but incumbent should be the last among Latin Argentina have continued to grow
airlines quickly moved to fill in the America’s larger airlines, and the their presence in the market.
gaps created by the demise of airline understands that it needs Now, after President Javier Milei’s
Viva Air and Ultra Air. Colombia’s to maintain its position in a market inauguration in December, decla-
airlines also face familiar infra- where demand continues to re- rations have been made over the
structure constraints at the nation’s main strong. privatization of some state-run
largest airport, Bogotá El Dorado Nearly every time a presidential companies in Argentina, including
International (BOG). election occurs in Argentina, uncer- Aerolineas Argentinas, and the
It was not surprising when Bra- tainty emerges for the country’s avi- adoption of an Open Skies policy.
zilian airline GOL entered Chapter ation sector. Arguably, former Presi- However, it is far from certain that
11 bankruptcy protection, reflect- dent Mauricio Macri’s tenure, which his plans will materialize.
ing the lingering challenges the began in 2015, was positive for the It is clear the aviation sector
region’s airlines face. GOL rival industry after he undertook chang- across Latin America faces both op-
Azul last year completed an out- es that led to the establishment of portunities and challenges in what
of-court restructuring after striking LCCs in the country. could prove to be another significant
deals with aircraft lessors, while There was some concern that year in the region’s evolution.

INTERVIEW: CROATIA AIRLINES PRESIDENT & CEO JASMIN BAJIC
A New Chapter
Croatia Airlines is one of the smaller
European flag carriers—its fleet comprises
an Airbus A320, five A319s and six De
Havilland Canada Dash 8 Q400s. But
the Zagreb Airport-based carrier is set
to undertake a fleet renewal that will re-
place those aircraft with 15 A220s—a mix
of -100s and -300s. CEO Jasmin Bajic
sees the new aircraft as a key element in a
strategy to make the company more effi-
cient, improve customer satisfaction, and
allow the airline to expand its domestic
and international network.
– Interview by KURT HOFMANN

CROATIA AIRLINES
When do you expect to take delivery of the first eight Croatian airports. Competition is positive for
A220? Thanks to the high-quality cooperation and us if it is conducted under the same financial and
constant and intensive communication between operational conditions. The Croatian aviation market
Croatia Airlines and Airbus, the first of 15 new A220 is characterized by pronounced seasonality of de-
aircraft in the fleet should appear in June 2024, fol- mand with high competition in the summer months.
lowed by the second by the end of 2024. After that, In normal conditions during the summer season,
we expect delivery of the next six aircraft in 2025, almost 90 airlines operate in the Croatian air trans-
four more in 2026, and the last three in 2027. port market, and more than half of all passengers
are transported in the third quarter, while in the win-
What does such a fleet renewal mean for a rel- ter period, the presence of competition is minimal.
atively small airline? By renewing the fleet, Croa- Croatia Airlines operates throughout the year, which
tia Airlines will completely replace old aircraft with enables Croatian airports to be open year-round
new ones, representing a significant technological for air transportation services to Croatian residents.
step forward, greater energy efficiency and 25% This indicates the significant influence of the com-
lower fuel consumption. The new and higher-qual- pany on the operations of other economic entities
ity A220 aircraft, with a capacity of 149 or 127 seats, of the air traffic system. It is also necessary to point
will ensure a better response to the specific needs out that during the winter period, in conditions of
of passengers and a more efficient business model, low demand, Croatia Airlines enables connections
thanks to which additional business opportunities within Croatia as well as with the world, confirming
will be opened, along with the gradual expansion of the role of a strategically important company for the
the flight network. Croatian economy and tourism sector.
How intense is competition in Zagreb? It is not just Is the seasonality getting more extreme, and how
Zagreb, because Croatia Airlines operates flights to do you adjust to it? Yes, you are absolutely right.

Croatia Airlines’ replacement of its fleet with 15 Airbus A220s is
part of a broader strategy to implement a more efficient business
model and gradually expand its network.
AIRBUS
Seasonality is a big problem when it comes to airline and then a more or less successful transition pro-
sizing. But Croatia, as a well-known tourist destina- cess. Poor air connectivity within the region is a mar-
tion, has great potential to expand its offerings, and ket characteristic that requires changes and actions.
our vision is to create sustainable year-round tour- In my opinion, consolidation in Europe will not hap-
ism in the next five to 10 years. Achieving that vision pen in the same way as in the US. Regions and small
will require a joint approach with different stakehold- countries in Europe require air connectivity that is in
ers of the tourism sector, in which Croatia Airlines line with the specific investment policies of those
will play a significant role. countries and the needs of the population and the
economy. For example, the disappearance of Adria
How important is Star Alliance membership for Airways that you mentioned. For Slovenia that
the airline? Star Alliance membership for us means meant, among other things, the loss of connections
compliance with the highest airline standards. As with Sarajevo, Pristina, Tirana, etc., where Slovenia
the national air carrier, Croatia Airlines represents has economic interests. At the same time, Adria Air-
a strategic part of the Croatian transport infra- ways, as a carrier with small European air transport
structure. It builds its position and recognition in capacities, could not in any way influence the com-
the Croatian and international markets thanks to petitiveness of European air transport. There is an
its now 20-year membership in the world’s largest important role for the European Commission, which
airline association. It provides passengers with ac- should not primarily support economies of scale and
cess to a global flight network with numerous ben- airlines that pay large sums to lobbyists and lawyers
efits that they rightly expect from a network carrier in Brussels. The significant increase in the Republic
of our quality. of Croatia’s credit rating in the last eight years, as
well as the entry into the Schengen zone and the
In southeast Europe Air Serbia is the biggest introduction of the euro in 2023, helped Croatia Air-
player, Adria Airways is gone, and loss-making lines to increase its reputation and results in the fi-
carriers like TAROM are still around. Is consolida- nancial and air transport markets. The implementa-
tion needed? And Is Croatia Airlines big enough tion of Croatia Airlines’ post-COVID strategy, which
to survive? The southeast Europe region over the includes the replacement of the fleet with a single
last 30 years has been marked by war, global and type, is a precondition for a sustainable business in
regional economic crises of different magnitudes, the future.

Cover Story
Navigating
A
irlines across Latin America and the Caribbean have
continued to navigate their way back to health over
the past year, expanding their networks, growing their
fleets, and forging new partnerships with counter-
parts both inside and outside of the region.
SIMONMAYER/ISTOCK

Turbulence
Political influence continues to loom large
on Latin America’s aviation landscape.
By David Casey
Bogota El Dorado International Airport.

Cover Story
Stronger performances from majors Aeromexico, port Association (ALTA). He highlighted that airlines
Avianca and LATAM Airlines Group—which have are being held accountable for events beyond their
each successfully emerged from US bankruptcy pro- control, such as storms and airspace closures, and
tection since the pandemic—helped to push over- called for action before “the country’s connectivity is
all traffic figures up by more than 28% in 2023, with unsustainably compromised.”
most larger markets outstripping 2019 levels. The “Something is wrong when Brazil is the world
annual load factor for Latin America rose by 2.1 per- leader in the number of lawsuits and a vulture side
centage points to 84.7%, according to IATA figures, industry is encouraged to promote litigation, even
making it the highest among all world regions. though domestic carriers are recognized as among
“Latin American and Caribbean airlines have the most punctual on the planet,” Botelho said.
done a great job in reconnecting what was lost, as Cerda explained that a common theme affecting
well as expanding within the region,” IATA regional airline profitability—not just in Brazil but across Latin
VP-Americas Peter Cerda said. “We have also seen America—is that many governments still seek to im-
an influx of service from international carriers, lead- pose themselves on aviation, highlighting Caribbean
ing to improved global connectivity.” destinations where taxes and charges reach as high
However, despite improvements, carriers collec- as 50% of the total ticket cost. Additionally, weak-
tively remain in the red. The region’s airlines faced ened currencies in several countries have made
overall losses of about $600 million in 2023, com- the cost of fuel—priced in US dollars—even more
pared to a $3.9 billion loss in 2022, with a forecast- expensive, while competition from buses on “a very
ed loss of $400 million in 2024. Brazil’s GOL Linhas unfavorable platform” provides further headwinds
Aereas is the latest to file for Chapter 11 due to an for carriers.
“unsustainable debt profile.” “Our governments must understand and appreci-
Cerda acknowledged that it is a “complicated and ate the importance of air transportation,” Cerda said.
frustrating” market with many regional differences “If they acknowledge this, we can have an open dis-
that make regionwide profitability difficult. While cussion on a framework that will help airlines be suc-
countries such as Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico cessful, enabling them to grow and provide better
have adopted more proactive aviation policies to service and more connectivity, while also reducing
open their skies, others are increasingly mired in bu- prices for more accessible travel and the shipment
reaucracy and turning to tax hikes and tariffs. Brazil of goods. This, in turn, will help local economies
is a case in point. flourish and make our airlines more profitable.”
Although capacity in the Brazilian market has al-
most fully recovered, boosted by strong domestic LIBERALIZATION CALLS
and US demand, high fuel taxes, labor costs and le- Although political interference is nothing new in
gal liabilities make the country difficult for airlines, Latin America, Rafael Echevarne, director general of
particularly new entrants. This is despite President airports trade body ACI-LAC, stressed that the dif-
Lula da Silva’s stated aim of increasing ultra-low-cost fering aviation policies with each new government
penetration so that air travel is within reach of more remain one of the biggest challenges, citing several
people, given the number of flights per capita stands shifts that have occurred in recent years.
at a lowly 0.4 trips per year. The lack of slots at São Mexico is a prime example, where President An-
Paulo’s congested Congonhas Airport (CGH) is also dres Manuel López Obrador has implemented sub-
an issue. stantial changes since 2018. These include discon-
“The reasons why Lula hasn’t been successful is tinuing the Texcoco airport project in Mexico City,
because of the bureaucratic conditions—it is costly reducing capacity at Benito Juarez International
to be profitable and competitive,” Cerda said. “The Airport (MEX) in preference for the newer but more
judicial system in the case of how it treats aviation is remote Felipe Angeles International Airport (NLU),
also the worst in the world. It is consistently putting and launching the state-owned airline Mexicana.
punitive actions towards airlines—and that makes it Further twists could come when Mexicans go to the
very difficult for a ULCC to invest in the country.” polls in June.
This point is echoed by José Ricardo Botelho, Argentina—a country that has historically swung
CEO of the Latin American and Caribbean Air Trans- from liberalization to protectionism—is also facing a

Cover Story
period of uncertainty after far-right outsider Javier long as it complies with all safe-
Milei took office as president in December, pledg- ty standards,” Echevarne said.
ing sweeping reforms to manage the country’s eco- “While it’s not as simple as waving
nomic crisis. Since then, he has made declarations a magic wand, there is a need for
to privatize some state-run companies, including action within the region to pro-
flag-carrier Aerolineas Argentinas, and potentially mote liberalization.”
adopt an open skies regime. JetSMART CEO Estuardo Ortiz
Other nations, including the Dominican Republic, is among the airline leaders call-
El Salvador, Panama and Uruguay, are also gearing ing for greater freedoms to simplify
up for elections this year that could have far-reach- airport access and regulations for
ing implications for aviation. foreign carriers. Speaking at a re-
Echevarne said these policy swings make it more cent ALTA conference, he cited the
difficult for airlines to plan with certainty, and, unlike requirement to have multiple air
other regions, governmental changes often result in operator certificates (AOCs) in the
a complete overhaul at a technical level. This causes “vast majority” of markets to oper-
a reset, requiring several years for the new team to ate there.
grasp industry intricacies. Alongside its main operation in
“We lack a supranational body similar to the Eu- Chile, JetSMART has subsidiaries
ropean Union,” Echevarne said. “There are various in Argentina and Peru, with a new
organizations in Latin America and the Caribbean, Colombian arm taking to the skies
such as CARICOM, UNASUR and the Andean Com- for the first time in March. Avianca,
munity, but these often have their own agendas with LATAM Airlines Group and Volaris
little joined up thinking.” are among the other groups with
A key aim for ACI-LAC is to help stimulate intra- multiple AOCs.
regional air travel to better connect economies and “If we talk about smart regula-
regions, including increasing international links from tions, the first thing we have to
secondary and tertiary cities. Analysis of OAG data do to have more competition is to
for the upcoming summer 2024 season reveals 462 break down the barriers that do
intraregional international routes are scheduled to not allow you, as an operator from
operate within Latin America and the Caribbean dur- one country, to operate domesti-
ing this period. While the geographical and political cally in another country,” Ortiz said.
landscape differs significantly, this figure stands in
stark contrast to the 6,400-plus intraregional inter- INFRASTRUCTURE
national routes in Europe. CONSTRAINTS
“While understanding the difficulties, challenges Prioritizing investment in airport infrastructure will
and politics involved, we look to Europe as an ex- also be key to Latin America fulfilling its potential. A
ample of what we should aspire to—perhaps not full study completed by ACI World and Oxford Econom-
open skies, but the possibility of airlines flying be- ics has found that airports need $94 billion in invest-
tween countries without including their own,” Eche- ments through to 2040 to meet the rising demand
varne said. for air travel in the region, including $41 billion for
He added that the lack of international service greenfield projects.
from secondary destinations is “absurd when com- “Unlike Europe, where road or rail options exist, in
pared to other parts of the world.” Taking Peru as an Latin America, you either go by plane or face treach-
example, the country has a population of about 33 erous roads, navigating through multiple passes that
million people, yet about 98% of its international traf- are thousands of meters high,” Echevarne said. “The
fic is via Lima. Likewise, almost 99% of international choice is as straightforward as that—and so the air-
traffic passes through Chile’s capital Santiago. port sector is the key to competitiveness and inter-
“We aim to work diligently to convince govern- national integration.”
ments and international organizations in the region Several countries have focused on expanding
to open up the market, regardless of its source, as and modernizing existing airport assets, adding ter-

Speaking at the 2023 ALTA AGM & Airline Leaders Forum
in Cancun, Mexico, are, from left, CNN anchor Gabriela
Frias, Copa Airlines CEO Pedro Heilbron, Aeromexico CEO
Andres Conesa, Avianca CEO Adrian Neuhauser and LATAM
Airlines Group CEO Roberto Alvo.
ALTA
minal capacity, and expanding aircraft aprons and make existing infrastructure more efficient and en-
runways. However, this has predominantly been in hance the passenger experience. Echevarne high-
major cities where urban sprawl, combined with en- lighted the ongoing challenge of convincing leaders
vironmental and noise concerns, makes further ex- that the adoption of new technologies, such as bio-
pansion more difficult. metrics, artificial intelligence and automation, to en-
Additionally, investment is not coming quickly hance processes like check-in, security and baggage
enough. Cerda praised the new terminal at Lima handling, does not necessarily equate to job losses.
Jorge Chavez International Airport (LIM), which is Governments must also collaborate to improve air
scheduled to open later this year and push capac- navigation systems and air traffic control to help make
ity to 30 million passengers per year, but said it was the best use of available capacity, he added.
“around five or six years too late.” While strides have been made in the recovery,
He also stressed that government agencies must many Latin American and Caribbean airlines contin-
step up efforts to improve access to the airport. ue to grapple with financial losses and regulatory
“There is a major concern that we will have new hurdles. The call for liberalization, coupled with stra-
infrastructure, basically a new airport, but won’t have tegic infrastructure investments and technological
a way to get there,” he said. “This has significant im- advancements, remains essential for sustainable
plications in a country that has a major hub.” growth. A collective effort from governments will
Investments in technology must also be made to therefore be vital.

Cover Story
Facing
Headwinds
Brazil’s largest airlines work their way through
JOE PRIES
consolidation, restructurings.
By Lori Ranson
A
irlines across Latin America have leasing and interest ex- GOL filed for Chapter 11
worked in various ways to position them- penses—despite an im- bankruptcy protection in
selves favorably as air traffic returns proving operating per- January as it struggled
with high debt.
to 2019 levels, which has resulted formance—had resulted
in some consolidation in the region. in “an unsustainable debt profile.” At the end of
In May 2022 Colombia-based Avianca and Bra- Q3 2023, the airline’s short-term maturities were
zilian carrier GOL decided to band together and BRL2.9 billion ($578 million), comprising BRL1.1 bil-
form the Abra Group, which comprises the principal lion in financial debt and BRL1.8 billion in leasing
shareholders of Avianca and the controlling share- obligations. The company’s readily available cash
holder of GOL. Initially, Colombian ultra-LCC Viva based on Fitch’s criteria was BRL905 million.
was also going to be part of the group, but it ceased Fitch explained at the same time that GOL has
operating in early 2023 after Avianca’s attempts to roughly $200 million of a $450 million available
acquire and merge with its lower-cost rival failed. credit line from Abra. That transaction with Abra was
As Abra was working to gain all the necessary a “result of another debt restructuring transaction
approvals to establish the new holding company, that GOL announced early in the year [March 2023]
GOL was battling financial headwinds. that also included a credit line of around $450 mil-
Ratings agency Fitch concluded in late 2023 lion,” the ratings agency said.
GOL’s recurring free cash flow pressure from high In a report released in early January 2024,

Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth pointed to Syth concluded that in the near to medium term
the “complicated ownership structure with Abra, GOL’s restructuring is a positive setup for Brazil’s
with some of GOL’s assets and it largest sharehold- domestic market, with capacity likely to remain
ers residing at the Abra level.” constrained. Citing the latest filed schedules, she
Shortly after Syth identified the complexities of noted GOL’s capacity is falling year-over-year for
Abra’s ownership structure, GOL filed for Chapter the first three quarters of 2024 while both Azul and
11 bankruptcy protection in the US and Abra bond- LATAM Airlines Brazil are increasing their supplies
holders pledged $950 million in debtor-in-posses- on routes within Brazil.
sion financing. Syth noted that, given Abra’s role in GOL should be the last larger Latin American air-
the funding, “we expect it to play a lead role in the line to seek bankruptcy protection. But the linger-
restructuring and most likely will fold in the remaining question is whether more consolidation is on
ing share of GOL it doesn’t own.” the horizon.
GOL’s financial troubles are less than ideal for “While likely too early in the process to contem-
Abra, but the reality is few carriers in Latin America plate, we believe an acquisition of GOL by Azul and
received government aid during the pandemic and a subsequent partnering with Abra is an intriguing
most were left to their own devices to preserve fi- proposition,” Syth said.
nancial integrity. Brazilian airlines also faced curren- Due to less network overlap,“ we believe such
cy fluctuations that created additional headwinds an acquisition could pass regulatory scrutiny,” she
for those operators. explained. But GOL is an all-Boeing 737 operator
Now that GOL has undertaken a restructuring while Azul flies Airbus narrowbodies and widebod-
in Chapter 11, each of Brazil’s three largest airlines ies, along with Embraer aircraft and ATR turbo-
have engaged in some form of financial reconstruc- props, Syth noted.
tion during the last few years. The current Abra Group members—Avianca and
LATAM Airlines Brazil’s parent LATAM Airlines GOL—do not have fleet commonality. Avianca is
Group entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in primarily an Airbus operator, with just 14 787-8s in
May 2020 and emerged in November 2022. a fleet of 148 in-service aircraft, according to the
Azul in 2023 completed a restructuring of its fi- CAPA–Centre For Aviation Fleet Database. In a
nancial obligations with lessors and OEMs that in- scenario where Azul might contemplate acquiring
cluded the reduction of lease payments by BRL5.4 GOL and joining Abra, fleet commonality may not
billion during the next four-and-a-half years. be a challenge.
Syth said the merger and acquisition discus-
TRAFFIC RETURNS sion “is solely our opinion; the companies have not
The recent reorganization by Azul and now GOL’s commented.”
Chapter 11 filing have occurred as demand in Brazil Azul made a previous attempt at consolidation
continues its steady climb back to pre-pandemic when it attempted to acquire LATAM Airlines Group
levels. The latest data from Brazilian civil aviation while it was in Chapter 11. Azul and a select group
regulator ANAC shows a combined 102.6 million of LATAM’s creditors submitted a nonbinding pro-
passengers—83.5 million domestic and 19.1 interna- posal for a business combination. But ultimately
tional—were transported within and to/from Brazil Azul walked away from the pursuit after LATAM
during the period from January-November 2023. presented its own restructuring plan. Azul con-
Even prior to the end of the year, total passenger cluded the valuation in that plan was higher than it
count surpassed the 2022 level of 97.6 million. thought was credible given the uncertainties in the
Dynamics in Brazil’s domestic market began to aviation sector at the time.
shift during its recovery from the pandemic. LATAM Once it decided to end its pursuit of LATAM in
Airlines Brazil surpassed GOL as the domestic mar- late 2021, Azul said it would continue to focus on its
ket share leader beginning in 2021. Citing data from own competitive advantages and evaluate other
ANAC, LATAM explained in November 2023 that its partnerships and potential consolidation in the re-
Brazilian franchise achieved a 40% domestic mar- gion. At the moment, it is not entirely clear if Azul
ket share. In 2019, LATAM Airlines Brazil’s domestic believes another opportunity for consolidation has
market share was 35%, the company said. surfaced in Latin America.

Cover Story
After
the Storm
Colombian market shows
‘tremendous growth’ following difficult stretch.
By Aaron Karp
T
wo words well describe the Colombian air picked up the void left by these two
transport market: turmoil and potential. The airlines,” he said. Wingo is a Colombian subsidiary of
turmoil has come in the form of the collapse Panama-based Copa Holdings.
of air traffic in 2020, flag carrier Avianca’s In fact, more than 20 airlines operate in the do-
Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring and the mestic market, though many of these are small re-
2023 failure of Colombian ULCCs Ultra Air and Viva. gional carriers. Even with the departure of Ultra and
But the potential can be seen in the continuing Viva, “undoubtedly Colombia is one of the most
growth and improving financial performance of the competitive markets in the region, and evidence of
“new” Avianca—which is operating a leaner, more this is not only the presence of over 20 airlines oper-
simplified business since emerging from Chapter 11 ating in the market, but also the arrival of new com-
in late 2021—and booming international interest in petitors” from outside Colombia, Avianca told ATW.
the market, the third-largest in Latin America. This in- Of course, the level of success of Avianca, which
cludes Chilean ULCC JetSMART opening a Colom- has been operating since 1919, will go a long way
bian subsidiary and Emirates Airline gaining permis- toward determining the future of the Colombian
sion to fly to Bogota’s El Dorado International Airport market. The company earned a net profit of $85.8
(BOG). million through the first nine months of 2023, revers-
IATA regional VP-Americas Peter Cerda told ATW ing a net loss of $312.6 million for the same period
the Colombian airline market has gone through a in 2022 and giving the carrier reason to believe
“perfect storm” in recent years, but it is also in the its post-bankruptcy strategy is working. In his final
midst of “a period of tremendous growth.” earnings call as Avianca CEO in late 2023, Adrian
“Even with the two carriers going away, airlines Neuhauser said the “new business model is based
like Wingo, Avianca and others stepped up and on a cost-driven strategy [aimed at] driving higher

tional routes to nearly 40 destinations.
Emirates gained permission in February from
Colombian regulator Aerocivil to op-
erate fifth-freedom flights between
Dubai and Bogota with a stop in Mi-
ami. The airline will fly the route daily
starting June 3 with a Boeing 777 with
capacity for 354 passengers. Colombia
transport minister William Camargo Triana called
Emirates’ service to the country “a historic milestone
in our air connectivity” that will aid in “consolidating
our position as a global destination.”
Colombia will become the third South American
country served by Emirates for passenger flights—
JOE PRIES the airline now operates to Argentina and Brazil.
“Colombia is becoming a very popular market for
business and travel and tourism, which is very impor-
tant,” Cerda said, noting growth is occurring beyond
Avianca’s post-bankruptcy just Bogota. “We see significant capacity strengthen-
strategy puts an emphasis on
ing in places like Cartagena and Cali.”
point-to-point narrowbody flights.
Meanwhile, JetSMART Colombia gained an
air operator’s certificate (AOC) from Aerocivil in
load factors” with an increased emphasis on point- January and launched service on seven domes-
to-point flying. tic routes in March. The new Colombian affiliate
Frederico Pedreira moved up from deputy CEO to is the fourth in JetSMART’s portfolio, which also
president and CEO of Avianca on Jan. 1, while Neu- includes carriers in Argentina, Peru and its home
hauser, who oversaw the transition through Chapter base of Chile.
11, will stay with the company as executive vice chair- The Indigo Partners-backed ULCC enters a mar-
man of its board. ket in which low-cost service is nonexistent follow-
“2022 and 2023 were undoubtedly challenging last year’s collapse of Viva—which Avianca un-
ing years for the market, mainly due to macroeco- successfully tried to acquire—and Ultra. JetSMART
nomic conditions such as the rise in jet fuel prices, already operates a robust international schedule to
inflation—which remained in double digits in several and from Colombia, including flights to Santiago,
markets—and also the strengthening of the dollar, Chile, from Bogota, Cali and Medellin; to Lima from
which led to devaluation in several currencies in the Cartagena, Cucuta and Medellin; and to Antofa-
region, including the Colombian peso,” Avianca said. gasta, Chile, from Cali.
Nevertheless, the carrier implemented its “re-
vamped” post-bankruptcy business plan in 2023 INTERNATIONAL DEMAND
and carried a record 32.2 million annual passengers. “We are witnessing second- and third-tier cities
Point-to-point narrowbody flying is now the in Colombia gaining international connectivity,”
“core business” for Avianca, the company has said Cerda said. “This demonstrates the importance of
in recent presentations. The airline has reported it air connectivity, the industry’s commitment to con-
is flying over 20 more point-to-point routes com- tinued growth, and the focus on not putting all our
pared to 2019. eggs in the hub airport in Bogota. While it remains
While much of the carrier’s capacity additions the main hub airport, there is strong growth in Cali,
are coming in the domestic market, in part to fill Cartagena and others, both domestically and in-
the void left by Ultra and Viva, Colombia’s interna- ternationally.”
tional service is also on the upswing, with airlines As significant as Emirates’ arrival will be later
around the world increasingly interested in the this year, Colombia is already experiencing grow-
market. Avianca itself operates around 50 interna- ing international demand. And the demand is di-

verse: Switzerland’s Edelweiss in late 2023 be- Colombia’s international capacity.
gan flights from Zurich to Bogota and Cartagena. Cerda and Avianca both point to BOG, where
Zurich became the eighth destination in Europe the Colombian government is now allowing the
connected to Bogota. Avianca serves Barcelona, historical level of 74 flights per hour after impos-
London Heathrow and Madrid nonstop. ing reductions—a relief particularly to Avianca and
In fact, nonstop international capacity to and LATAM Airlines Colombia, the country’s second
from Colombia reached an all-time high in 2023. biggest operator.
Analysis of data provided by OAG Schedules But more capacity likely will be needed to ac-
Analyser shows that monthly nonstop interna- commodate demand. IATA has presented a series
tional seats operated to the country in December of recommendations that Cerda says could boost
reached almost 2.3 million, breaking the previous capacity at BOG to 100 flights per hour, noting this
monthly high of 2.14 million offered in August 2023. would be a 47% increase over 2019.
The December 2023 figure was up 36% compared He says the government should commit to
with December 2019. boosting capacity at BOG through flexibility and
Tourism organization ProColombia says Colom- infrastructure investment.
bia added 23 new international routes in 2023 “We need to improve efficiency and capacity
and 34 in 2022. Highlights of 2023 additions in- in Bogota,” Cerda said. “It is an airport that will
cluded Avianca’s launch of service between Me- continue to grow. It needs to grow, and we need
dellin and Quito, Ecuador, and Mexican carrier to have the right infrastructure in place to … fulfill
Viva Aerobus’ service between BOG and Monter- forecast projections. With the right infrastructure
rey, Mexico. at El Dorado, this growth can happen.”
The US is Colombia’s largest international mar- He adds: “The government needs to have a vi-
ket, with around 25% of international seats, fol- sion of growth, collaborate [with industry] and es-
lowed by Panama at around 16%, attributable to tablish a stronger travel and tourism agenda.
passengers connecting via Copa Airlines’ Pan- While progress has been made, we believe more
ama City hub. Mexico was third at around 9% of can be done.”
JetSMART’s Colombian subsidiary launched

domestic services in March, filling the ULCC gap
created by the 2023 collapse of Viva and Ultra Air.
AIRBUS

Summer Capacity constraints will
prevent a full recovery within
Squeeze
Europe’s short-haul market
this summer, dampening
traffic growth but signaling
higher yields for LCCs.
By David Casey
E
asyJet CEO Johan Lundgren character- Wizz Air is among the airlines that has been most
ized the northern summer 2023 season exposed to such headwinds, hampered by the
as “the best ever” financially, helping grounding of Airbus A320neo-family aircraft be-
the European carrier to post a £455 cause of Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engine issues.
million ($571 million) headline profit for the year By the start of the summer season at the end of
to September, recovering from a £178 million loss March, the Hungarian ULCC will have about 40 air-
during the previous 12 months. craft on the ground, equivalent to almost 20% of its
The LCC expects capacity to rise by more than 8% 207-strong fleet.
during this summer compared to 2019, with book- Although the carrier is working to minimize the im-
ings at the turn of the year showing an increase in pact—by deploying neos to longer sectors, extend-
both volume and pricing. Short-haul leisure demand ing existing leases to shore up flying capacity, dry
remains strong and customer growth at the group’s leasing three former aircraft and taking new deliver-
vacation business is expected to exceed 35%. ies—Wizz expects capacity growth during summer
Lundgren admits there has been an element of 2024 to be flat. This marks a sharp change of pace
good fortune contributing to the UK-based airline’s for a carrier that has been expanding rapidly in re-
planned summer schedule, given that it has been cent years.
less affected by aircraft delivery delays and mainte- “Everything is a source of frustration when it
nance issues than some counterparts. comes to Pratt & Whitney—everything,” Wizz CEO
“If anything, we’re getting some [aircraft] little bit József Váradi said when questioned about the neo
earlier,” he said. “Ironically, [Airbus] couldn’t fit them groundings. “The problem I’m having today is that
with Pratt & Whitney engines because they weren’t the markets we are operating require a lot more
there on time, so they got CFM engines. We’re a capacity than what we are able to provide. Today’s
CFM customer so I think we’re probably the only air- operation is already suboptimal versus demand—
line getting aircraft earlier than expected.” and we just need to make sure that we catch up on
Although conflict in the Middle East dented per- that, and we continue to drive our growth agenda
formance to the tune of £40 million over the winter going forward.”
months after flights to Israel and Jordan were sus- Wizz has committed to retaining all existing air-
pended, summer bookings for holiday favorites Por- craft bases despite the groundings, with Váradi in-
tugal and Spain, alongside destinations further afield sisting the airline needs to have “the bones of the
like Greece, remain brisk. This comes after a year network intact” so it is able “to put more meat on
when Portugal and Greece’s markets each outper- them” in summer 2025 once the engine issues are
formed pre-pandemic levels by 12% and Spain by 3%, addressed. This includes reopening a base in Mol-
according to ACI Europe passenger data for 2023. dova’s capital Chisinau following the restart of flights
However, while easyJet is preparing to operate the to the country in December, almost 10 months after
summer season at full capacity, other European carri- suspending service amid safety fears. However, the
ers are grappling with a smaller than expected fleet, appetite to launch new routes this summer will be
forcing them to pare back their planned schedules. more limited, while there is expected to be double-

digit percentage capacity decreases in markets growth within the overall European short-haul market
such as Germany, Bulgaria and Greece. will be flat, owing to the aircraft groundings.
“We expect about 10% of Europe’s A320 fleet to
SUPPLY CHAIN FRUSTRATIONS be grounded while they address the Pratt & Whit-
Despite this, Váradi maintains that Wizz has the fi- ney engine issues and that this will mean tight sup-
nancial resources and incoming aircraft to kickstart ply for summer 2024,” he said.
its expansion from summer 2025 onward, estimat- “Eurocontrol has confirmed that last year Eu-
ing capacity could be between 30 to 40% higher. ropean short haul was about 93% of pre-COVID
“We’re going to be a lot bigger airline in summer levels. The question for summer 2024 is it go-
2025 than what we are operating today,” he adding to grow or is it going to decline? We think it’s
ed, suggesting that Airbus was better equipped to not going to grow. We are not sure yet whether it
meet delivery targets compared to Boeing amid declines. It depends on which markets the A320
ongoing delays to its 737 MAX and 777 programs. operators ground aircraft or don’t grow. For ex-
These supply chain challenges delaying MAX ample, if you take the likes of Wizz, are they go-
deliveries—compounded by Boeing’s manufacturing to constrain their growth in the Middle East
ing crisis following the Alaska Airlines MAX 9 door or are they going to constrain their growth in Eu-
plug blowout in January—have been a source of rope? I suspect we are
frustration for Irish ULCC Ryanair in recent months. going to see more con-
After trimming its winter 2023-24 schedule, straints on growth in
which included scaling back base operations in Europe where they are
Brussels Charleroi and Dublin, the airline has re- struggling to compete
duced its forthcoming summer plans as it only ex- with us.”
pects to receive 50 of the 57 MAX 8-200s that it Analysis of the lat-
was scheduled to take by the end of June 2024. est schedules filed with
Passenger numbers for the 2025 fiscal year begin- OAG indicate that total
ning in April have therefore been revised down- intra-European short-
wards from 205 million to 200 million. haul capacity will climb
“We now expect to have up to 174 of these [737 this summer, but only
8-200] aircraft in our fleet by the end of June in by about 1%. This means
time for peak summer 2024—that’s up 50 aircraft that the number of avail-
from summer 2023—but that would still be sev- able seats is likely to
en aircraft short of our contracted deliveries due remain around 3% lower
to Boeing delivery delays,” Ryanair Group CEO than during summer
Michael O’Leary said. 2019 before the pan-
However, the addition of the new aircraft means demic. As such, airlines
Ryanair still intends to operate a record summer are preparing for a more
2024 schedule, featuring 169
new routes. This includes the
launch of domestic flights in Summer 2024 In Numbers
Morocco, as well as the first
summer services to Albania’s Scheduled Nonstop
capital, Tirana. OAG data Intra-European Capacity Intra-European Routes
shows that capacity to Greece
will be up by 10% year-on-year, Ryanair 130.7 million seats 2,356
Spain by 7%, France by 6%
and Italy by 5%.
easyJet 64.5 million seats 918
Although Ryanair’s total sum-
mer capacity is scheduled to be
more than 7% higher than sum- Wizz Air 37.1 million seats 645
mer 2023, O’Leary believes that Correct as of Feb. 9, 2024, and subject to change. Data provided by OAG Schedules Analyser.

constrained capacity environment that, coupled er yields as demand continues to outstrip supply.
with robust demand, will bring another strong sea- Analyst JP Morgan increased its easyJet profit-
son for ticket prices. before-tax estimates for 2024 to 2026 by 26%,
IATA estimated that airfares from and within Eu- 20% and 16%, respectively, upgrading the airline
rope were about 16% higher in summer 2023, com- from neutral to overweight as it sees it outperform-
pared with summer 2019, but pointed out that this ing the sector average. It also maintained its over-
was four percentage points below the cumulative weight rating on Ryanair, saying it remains the best
20% increase in the European Consumer Price In- “structural” story in a commoditized industry, and
dex over the same period. It added the airfare in- held its neutral rating on Wizz.
crease was also lagging rises in fuel prices. It therefore seems that while capacity will con-
However, the hike is understood to have at- tinue to lag demand in Europe’s short-haul sector
tracted the attention of the European Commission, this summer, demand will continue to be strong,
which does not have the power to regulate airfares, pushing yields higher. Combined with a more be-
but is concerned that the rise could damage con- nign fuel environment, the region’s largest low-cost
nectivity. Despite this, carriers like easyJet, Wizz operators will likely be among the airlines making
and Ryanair are braced for another period of high- hay while the sun shines.
SEAN GALLUP/GETTY IMAGES

26
92% asset availability
LEADERS
AREN’T BORN.
THEY’RE
ENGINEERED.
27
LEAP turns heads in the boardroom. cfmaeroengines.com

LEAP-powered aircraft are achieving the highest days flown ratio* for their thrust class.
That means fewer spare aircraft and more flights, which helps profitability climb.
Another reason to say LEAP. By example. *Compared to 83% for competition, per third-party data.
Betting BIG
CEO Scott Kirby goes all in on a quest to
make United Airlines the biggest and best.
By Chris Sloan
“U
nited is a four-year-old startup embed- believed in a full recovery of travel demand. That was
ded inside a 98-year-old airline.” Unit- the light-bulb moment that this was the time for us to
ed Airlines CEO Scott Kirby says. That go all in on a big bet on recovery because we didn’t
“startup” launched on Feb. 29, 2020, have to be right—we just had to be not totally wrong
when the coronavirus showed up in Italy. “I got on when everyone else was shrinking.”
the phone with our CFO that day and said, ‘This is a JP Morgan senior airlines analyst Jamie Baker
global pandemic. Let’s go raise money.’” agrees. “Scott was the first airline CEO to confront
In an exclusive interview with ATW, Kirby said that COVID head on and build a plan for the airline to
moment set the tone for the company that continues survive,” he said. While others furloughed pilots and
to this day. United raised the money it needed by permanently grounded fleets, United reached a deal
early March 2020 and put in motion a plan to not just with pilots to ensure they could eventually return to
weather the crisis, but to emerge bigger and better. service, “but without the operational mayhem that
“Two things you can do: You can make excuses or plagued some others,” Baker added.
quickly accept the bad thing that’s happened and fig- United’s goal is lofty: to become the biggest and
ure out how to attack it and come out stronger on the best airline in the world, which Kirby defines as the
other side,” Kirby said. “We were the only ones who most profitable, the airline of choice for customers,

tancy takes a more skeptical view.
“It is hard to imagine a US airline delivering the
product of a Singapore [Airlines] or an Emirates,” he
said. “Big airplanes make improved products avail-
able for sale. That doesn’t easily translate into being
the world’s best.”
From a “world’s most profitable” standpoint, the
airline still has some way to go to be world-beating.
United reported a fiscal 2023 operating margin of
6.2%—lagging Delta Air Lines and nowhere near the
big numbers of the Atlanta-based powerhouse. Unit-
ed is on climb-out, with its 2023 unit revenue growth
outperforming the rest of the US industry, except for
Delta, by 1.7%.
During the most recent earnings call, Cowen an-
alyst Helane Becker asked how United intends to
achieve 12%-14% margins in 2026. United achieved
peak profitability with a 13.6% operating margin in
2015, and 9.9% just before the pandemic began.
“The strategy is working, and we’re very confi-
dent in an upward trajectory to both earnings and
margin,” United CCO Andrew Nocella responded.
With input and labor costs rising—United negoti-
ated a $10 billion Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA)
contract in 2023 and a flight attendant collective
bargaining agreement is forthcoming—this is an
even more daunting challenge.
Kirby shrugs it off. “We believe the industrywide
cost pressures will wind up as a pass-through, much
like fuel has been in the past,” he said.
LOGAN CYRUS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

UNITED NEXT
The engine powering Kirby’s ambitious goals is the
and the place employees most want to work. If you company’s sweeping United Next strategy.
get the culture right, everything else will take care of One pillar of the plan is unlocking the global net-
itself—a page torn from Herb Kelleher’s Southwest work. United has long been considered to have the
Airlines playbook. best US network, with its seven hubs in the largest
“The biggest thing we’ve done is change the cul- business and population centers, but it has been far
ture,” he said. from optimized.
Despite the acrimonious public posturing en- Even as international travel was virtually at
demic to heated labor negotiations, Atmosphere a standstill, United looked beyond America’s
Research analyst Henry Harteveldt detects a shift in borders for growth. United targets a 50:50
attitude at the airline. domestic:international split; in Q4 2023 it was 62%
“Their employees appear to be very committed domestic and 38% international.
to the company and to helping customers,” he said. The company’s international footprint is under-
But can United be the best? going rapid expansion, with 17.4% more internation-
“When you aggregate what investors and pas- al departure seats in Q1 2024 vs. Q1 2019, and 34
sengers look for in an airline, we would argue that new international routes since January 2022, ac-
United currently is firing on all cylinders,” Baker said. cording to OAG data. United is the nation’s largest
William Swelbar of the Swelbar-Zhong consul- provider of international capacity in all regions ex-

United Airlines’ new signature
interior is found in all new aircraft
cept Latin America and the Caribbean. deliveries and is being retrofitted
“They are doing some creative things, into the existing fleet.
in particular with long-haul flying,” Harte-
veldt said. “Who had Newark to Faro,
Portugal, and first-ever US nonstops to
Manila, Philippines, and Christchurch,
New Zealand, on their bingo card?”
Analyst Bob Mann of RW Mann &
Company points out that United under-
taking this flying on its own metal is a
significant advantage, unlike American
Airlines, which uses oneworld alliance
partners for much of its long-haul lift.
“You control the controllable of the
operation to a much greater degree
than having to rely on synthetic provid-
ers or a joint business arrangement,”
Mann said.
Some of these new international
destinations are relatively low-risk,
flown by older, paid-off Boeing 757s,
767s and 777s.
While international draws much of the limelight, 2021, United has ordered 605 new aircraft, on top
United is progressing toward achieving what Kirby of previous orders for 294. The record orders for
calls its natural share domestically, where it ranks 150 Boeing 787 widebodies to replace aging 757s
number four in passengers. and 767s obviously play the biggest role in interna-
“We’re probably only in the third inning of that tional growth. But the narrowbody order replacing
domestic journey, but the thing that’s been amaz- 50-seaters for mainline is what’s really driving unit
ing about it is we’ve been leading the industry in costs down and unit revenue up.
RASM, even though we’ve had the fastest growth,” “What we’re doing is essentially getting rid of
Kirby said. 300 regional jets and replacing them with what will
United is flying the largest domestic schedule ultimately be 500 mainline, narrowbody aircraft,”
in its history, with the most growth coming from Kirby said.
its mid-continent Denver mega-hub, which is now In 2019, United averaged 104 seats per North
the country’s third-largest airline hub. Constrained American departure, among the lowest in the indus-
hubs like Newark, San Francisco, Chicago and Los try. By 2027, the carrier expects that number to jump
Angeles are growing via upgauging aircraft rather more than 40% to over 145 seats.
than adding flights. OAG data indicates United’s United removed an order for 271 Boeing MAX
domestic capacity was up 4.6% in Q1 2024 com- 10s from its internal fleet plans the day after a door
pared with Q1 2019, while Delta and American have plug blew off an Alaska Airlines MAX 9 minutes into
remained nearly flat. a Jan. 5 flight.
“We’re the only airline in the country who basically “We didn’t dither with it,” Kirby said. “It’s frustrating
has all of our network that’s profitable,” Kirby said. that Boeing is behind, but we’re still adding a hun-
dred-plus narrowbodies a year and two widebodies
OPTIMIZE THE FLEET a month starting later this year.”
United’s unprecedented fleet renewal, another pillar Some analysts urge caution with the upgauging
of United Next, is the largest in the history of com- campaign regarding revenue management and
mercial aviation. debt service.
“The foundation of United Next is aircraft—big “It causes you to act differently when you have
aircraft,” Swelbar said. Since the beginning of a surplus of capacity than if you have a scarcity of

based on the brand and what they
like about the airline. We’ve learned
that from Delta, and we copy that.”
So United is adding free seatback
IFE, stylish new cabins, and more pre-
mium products, and is pushing toward
industry-leading on-time performance
and reliability.
Analysts are mostly onboard with
the plan.
“You cannot talk about any CASM
advantage anymore. You have to shift
to a revenue-focused airline that justi-
fies a revenue premium versus other
airlines. They’re going to have to fig-
ure out how to command an even
higher premium at some point than
Delta appears to be able to,” Harte-
veldt said.
Swelbar adds: “Honestly, no airline
UNITED AIRLINES
can continue in perpetuity in a com-
modity product world.”
capacity. And so, the pricing of those seats becomes United enjoys the highest premium seat growth
very critical,” Mann said. among its US competitors—increasing 32.4% since
The significant CapEx of approximately $9 billion 2019, OAG data shows. In the second half of 2023,
in 2024 and total debt of $29 billion leaves Swel- United’s revenue from premium products was up
bar concerned. almost 20%—outpacing top-line revenue growth of
“Orders were necessary, but a massive order is around 11%. This has translated into the highest year-
still in question given that United faces progress on-year yield increase of 3.7%, topping Delta’s 2.4%.
payments every day and a zero percent interest rate The airline’s operations are trending in the right
environment is history,” he said. direction. On-time performance has achieved the
With caveats, Baker breathes a bit easier. “Free best six-month period in company history, aver-
cash flow is expected to mostly fund CapEx over the aging 82% of flights arriving within 15 minutes of
next few years, but higher margins will be necessary schedule. The constrained Newark hub, epicenter
to stimulate the excess cash flow for absolute debt of a massive summer 2023 meltdown, has made a
reduction,” he said. turnaround. The fourth quarter was the best ever
United CFO Michael Leskinen said the supply for Newark, with a rate of 89% of all inbound and
chain deliveries allow it flexibility to moderate the outbound United flights arriving within 15 minutes
rate of growth and bring down CapEx. of schedule. The much-maligned airport where
United dominates has become the fifth-most on-
DE-COMMODITIZING time large US airport.
United Next also includes a move that would have The improved performance is reflected in
been anathema to Kirby’s younger self of 15 years higher J.D. Power scores, where United ranks
ago, when he was president at US Airways: De- third in customer satisfaction in the first/business-
commoditizing the product. This is a lesson he has class segment. Net Promoter Scores (NPS) still
adopted from Delta, and Kirby is not ashamed to lag, with the carrier ranked last among its “Big
admit it. Four” competitors. United attributes a 9.2-point
“I respect Delta a lot. It annoys me because NPS increase to aircraft equipped with the new
they’re really good and they’re competitive,” he signature interior found in all new deliveries and
said. “They help prove that customers will choose retrofits. Protracted supply chain snarls, however,

United Airlines Fleet
Aircraft In Service On Order
A319-100 75
A320-200 81 have slowed the new interior rollout.
A321-200neo 4 176
UNITED VS. EVERYONE
A350-900 45 It would be a mistake to believe United is only gun-
737 MAX 8 79 39 ning for the top of the particular market.
737 MAX 9 79 44 “You can’t pretend to be just a low-cost com-
moditized business or pretend just to be high-end
737 MAX 10* 271 in a business where we have 8%-10% profit mar-
737-700 36 gins. You have got to do both,” Kirby said.
737-800 128 United freely admits its form of innovation is imita-
tion and then doing it better.
737-900 11 “I’m probably the only airline executive that has
737-900ER 124 read every single one of my competitor’s earnings
757-200 37 call transcripts for 20 years,” Kirby said.
The LCCs and Southwest are perfect exam-
757-300 19 ples of Kirby copying their playbooks and remov-
767-300ER 28 ing their competitive advantage. During COVID,
767-400ER 15 United was the first mover in permanently remov-
ing change fees, and its network carrier competi-
777-200 17 tion was forced to follow suit. On the face of it,
777-200ER 50 this was a shrewd move with the unpredictable
777-300ER 21 booking curve wrought by the pandemic. The
permanent reality is a direct shot over the bow
787-10 19 7 of Southwest, removing one of that carrier’s main
787-8 12 unique selling points.
787-9 35 150 The LCCs have drawn out Kirby’s competitive
spirit the most. He was the first to change their nar-
Overture 15 rative from former profit machines into permanent
Total 870 747 money losers, deriding them as “Ponzi schemes”
*Order removed from United’s fleet plan. and “bad business models.” He said LCCs’ “cost
Current as of Jan. 25. convergence”—as their expenses rise closer to
Source: Aviation Week Intelligence Network Fleet Data Services those of legacy airlines—will make
it impossible for them to grow and
United Airlines 2023 Results compete, in effect dooming them
to unprofitability and worse.
2023 2022 Change Ironically, higher costs are
Operating helping the global carriers more
$53.7 billion $45 billion 19.5%
revenue than hurting them in erasing the
Operating ULCC’s former cost advantage.
$49.5 billion $42.6 billion 16.2% “Our unit costs in 2023 were up
expense
17.8% versus 2019,” Nocella said,
Net income $2.6 billion $737 million 255% while ULCC unit costs were “ex-
pected to be up 25% on average.”
Passengers 164.9 million 144.3 million 14%
Kirby is using the inflationary
Load factor 83.9% 83.4% 0.5 pts. environment as a cudgel against
Spirit Airlines and Frontier Airlines.
CASM 16.99 cents 17.19 cents -1% “ULCC’s offered low fares that
were better than us, so we needed
CASM-ex 12.03 cents 11.73 cents 3% to compete with that,” he said.
Source: United Airlines United’s basic economy offer-

ing, which allows a personal item but no carry-on costs to a level where the competition cannot be
bag on domestic flights, is more akin to an LCC’s meaningfully profitable, if profitable at all,” he said.
than are the Delta and American offerings, which “There has never been an alignment of scenarios
include a carry-on. playing out in United’s favor like what has and is
ULCCs need repeat customers, Kirby said, but playing out.”
unhappy customers will defect to United’s superior Despite the backdrop and risk of billions of dol-
product, network and loyalty program—and pay an lars of capital investment, record-smashing labor
incremental premium for it. deals and debt, Kirby doesn’t convey concern with
While United’s competitors downplay the im- the inevitable downcycle. He seems to relish it.
portance of basic economy in favor of premium, “We have to prepare United for the unknown un-
United touts it. knowns,” he said, echoing the famous quote from
“Domestic basic economy revenue was up nearly former US defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
20% in the fourth quarter versus last year,” Nocella It’s a high-stakes poker game, and Kirby seems
said. “It remains a key component of the future. We energized by the chance to turn crisis into oppor-
continue to believe we can add gauge to domestic tunity.
flying while maintaining strong unit revenues.” “I want us to be in a position where financially
These market dynamics are unprecedented, in we double down during the crisis,” he said. “We
Swelbar’s view. have more chips on our side of the table, better
“Cost convergence is a competitive tool, whether cards in our hand and everyone else has to fold.
to lower costs to meet the competition or to raise And we win in good times and bad times.”
in Comple
The World’s Trusted Payment Platform
UATP.com
Aiming
for Safety
Africa hasn’t met its Abuja Safety Targets,
but real progress is being made.
By Victoria Moores
I
n 2012 Africa’s aviation ministers saw a “coming autonomous civil aviation authorities (CAA), com-
pelling need” to do something about aviation plying with basic ICAO safety standards, certifying
safety. Their answer was the Abuja Safety Tar- international airports, and increasing the rollout of
gets. Over a decade later, overall implementa- IATA Operational Safety Audits (IOSA). Four more
tion stands at just 46%. objectives—covering air navigation services—were
However, experts say this percentage masks gen- added in 2017.
uine progress, and that a more pragmatic approach “I would say the Abuja standards are the bedrock
is helping accelerate change. for anything that we do,” Munetsi said.
When the safety targets were established, Africa The African Civil Aviation Commission (AFCAC)
topped the world leaderboard for fatal air accidents, was tasked with monitoring implementation of the
and many of the continent’s airlines were banned by Abuja Safety Targets, in close partnership with
the European Union. ICAO. AFCAC is the body that handles aviation af-
“That was a trigger for us to say, ‘Come on, guys, fairs for the African Union (AU), which comprises
what is going on? We need to take ownership of this 55 states.
ourselves, as Africans. We can’t wait for the Europe- “For anything to do with [African] aviation safety
ans to ban us,’” said Airlines Association of Southern and security, ICAO will never do anything without
Africa (AASA) CEO Aaron Munetsi, who was working the involvement of AFCAC. And AFCAC will never
for South African Airways (SAA) at the time. do anything without the involvement of ICAO,” Mu-
In response, aviation ministers from 35 African netsi said.
countries, along with representatives from EASA, But where do things stand now with the targets?
IATA and ICAO, gathered for a safety conference “Status of implementation has risen gradually over
in Abuja, Nigeria, which ultimately led to the 2012 the years, up to an average of 46% for all states in
Abuja Declaration and the Abuja Safety Targets. July 2023,” AFCAC told ATW. “Some individual mem-
“Anyone and everyone who was involved in avia- ber states have met some of the targets. However,
tion safety was called into that room,” Munetsi said. as a group average (54 states), none of the targets
“At that time, I think 25 countries—almost half the have been met.”
countries on the continent—were on the EU banned While 46% sounds low, this marks an improvement
list. This was simply an indication that we were not from 35% compliance in 2018. However, Munetsi
doing enough oversight.” said implementation of around 60% was originally
The 12 original Abuja Safety Targets sought to seen as “the very basic bare minimum,” covering as-
tackle critical issues, such as reducing accident pects of safety that were “nonnegotiable.” Ethiopia,
rates, remedying significant safety concerns, creat- Kenya and South Africa are “getting quite ahead of

Safety Plan. All 22 significant safety concerns identi-
fied in 2012 have now been addressed, and
the rollout of independent CAAs (Target
2) is 70% complete.
Notably, there were no con-
trolled flight into terrain or loss-of-
control inflight incidents in 2022,
but the accident rate remains el-
evated because of runway-related
shortcomings.
“Runway excursion-related accidents
remained the most predominant high-risk category
of occurrence, and continues to be the main priority,”
African Airlines Association (AFRAA) secretary gen-
eral Abderahmane Berthé said. AFRAA is a lobbying
group representing 54 African airlines.
Moreover, the November 2023 up-
date to the EU Air Safety List shows
that airlines from 12 African coun-
tries are currently banned by the EU
over safety concerns—down by half
since the targets were conceived,
indicating improved safety oversight.
Reflecting on progress to date, AFCAC
told ATW that the rollout of performance-based
navigation (Target 11) has moved more quickly than
expected, reaching 75% compliance. However, the
Abuja Safety Targets Status of Implementation

the program,” Munetsi
100%
said, while others are
VLADIMIR TYURIN/GETTY IMAGES
lagging. 90
Given the diversity
80
of countries involved,
the low overall imple- 70
mentation figure masks
60
credible progress.
For example, 29 of 48 50
member states of the
40
ICAO Regional Avia-
tion Safety Group for 30
Africa-Indian Ocean
20
met the original 60%
compliance target, and 10
11 have now exceeded
0
75% implementation of #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16
ICAO’s Global Aviation Source: AFCAC
Source: AFCAC

be needed. One area
that is gaining traction
is peer support, where
states actively help one
another. Munetsi gave
the example of South
Africa, which scored
92% in its 2023 ICAO
safety audit. South Af-
rica is now offering to
mentor other African
countries, facilitated by
AFCAC, IATA and ICAO.
“It’s easier for these
countries to go state-
to-state to ask for help,”
ROB FINLAYSON
Munetsi said. “If we say
‘go to IATA or ICAO,’ two
Kenya, Ethiopia and air navigation targets things happen. The first is it’s almost like they are re-
South Africa are among are “generally lagging porting themselves, saying they are not performing
the African nations mak-
behind” because of the well, and they don’t want to look bad. The second
ing the most progress in
meeting the Abuja Safety substantial cost of re- thing is when ICAO or IATA come in, they come at a
placing older equipment. cost, and that becomes a deterrent.”
Money has also been a barrier for the certification of Conversely, South Africa might be willing to send
international airports, because many need upgrades. a team, with the receiving country only having to
AFCAC is working to secure additional funding from cover travel and subsistence costs. “Already we are
international partners. seeing some countries reaching out to South Africa,”
The next steps include realignment of the safety Munetsi said.
targets to the ICAO Global Aviation Safety Plan and
Global Air Navigation Plan “to ensure that they re- FOCUS AFRICA
main current, relevant and achievable for member IATA is aware of these challenges, and has re-
states,” AFCAC said. This realignment process be- sponded with the Focus Africa program, which
gan in 2022, and is expected to be completed by launched in 2023. One of Focus Africa’s six core
the end of Q1 2024. areas is safety, and IATA has established a Col-
AASA’s Munetsi said the current goal is not to laborative Aviation Safety Improvement Program
reach minimum Abuja compliance, but instead for (CASIP) to move things forward. CASIP participants
countries to get several percentage points beyond include AFCAC, Airbus, Boeing, ICAO, US FAA and
that. He reasons that once safety systems, process- the African airline bodies. An initial CASIP meeting
es and procedures have been implemented, the risk was held in October 2023 and a work program for
of countries slipping below the minimum threshold the group is now being finalized.
in future will be reduced. But how will Africa get to “Rather than this being driven by ICAO, or the
that level? states, it was actually driven by the needs of our
Part of the answer lies in a more hands-on ap- member airlines,” IATA Africa & Middle East regional
proach, using active cooperation between the three director for operations, safety & security Sharron
main airline associations—AASA, AFRAA and IATA— Caunt said. “One of the things that we do in Africa
and the various regulatory oversight bodies, includ- is we set superb aspirational goals. But then what’s
ing AFCAC, ICAO and national CAAs. the mechanism to actually implement the change?”
In early 2024, AFCAC hosted a Joint Prioritized Safety target implementation is measured at the
Action Plan meeting to check in with African states state level, but airlines have a key part to play.
on their progress, and see what assistance might “You have to have the industry and states work-

ing together. Because otherwise, you wouldn’t be erations, so she sees value in raising safety aware-
able to prioritize the issues,” Caunt said. “Part of the ness among hands-on staff, as well as at the aero-
CASIP program is to actually roll our sleeves up, go political level.
in there and actually deliver activities.”
This involves frank roundtable discussions, MAKING SAFETY ACCESSIBLE
speaking with airlines and states about what the real While IATA initiatives like Focus Africa are helpful
issues are, and then brainstorming solutions, such to larger airlines, many smaller operators are not
as training and capacity building. IATA members.
IATA also held a three-day runway safety meet- “In my region, which is south of the Sahara, there
ing with one African state, which ended with a “FOD are approximately 23 IATA carriers, but there are
plod” along the airport’s runway and taxiways, col- hundreds and hundreds of small operators who
lecting foreign object debris—or litter—that could be don’t have IATA to turn to,” Tom Kok, director at Afri-
ingested into aircraft engines. can safety specialist AviAssist Foundation, told ATW.
“Everybody was so excited because they were AviAssist (see sidebar pg. 38) has tracked the
actually part of the change that we’re making,” Caunt Abuja Safety Targets since their creation, and Kok
said. “We saw the immediate change.” believes they have helped the industry focus on
Caunt’s own aviation career began in ground op- core safety priorities. However, the high-level objec-
BREAKING THE AVERSION TO AUDITS

An IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) audit can be been following the recommended practices from a
daunting for smaller African carriers, because of the safety management point of view,” Munetsi said. “So
cost, skills and time needed to complete the process. as long as you’ve got an effective safety manage-
But the Airlines Association of Southern Africa ment system, IOSA is not that difficult or demanding.
(AASA) has found that one way to ease into the pro- But if they are doing it for the first time, they feel
cess is by first completing an IATA Standard Safety that ‘Oh my gosh, this is very demanding. Let’s not
Assessment (ISSA). even try it.’”
“In collaboration with IATA, we managed to In response, the African Airlines Association
convince most of these smaller operators by say- (AFRAA) is assisting more than 10 companies with
ing, ‘Look, you don’t have to just jump into the big IOSA and ISSA preparations, with support from IATA.
league of IOSA. You can start by doing ISSA. ISSA AFRAA secretary general Abderahmane Berthé
is the starting point of audits—it is not as onerous said African states need to set up regulatory frame-
as IOSA and it is also actually designed for smaller works that recognize IOSA and ISSA, and then
operators,” said AASA CEO Aaron Munetsi. encourage airlines to get certified. According to
ISSA acts as a gateway, helping airlines build up AFRAA data, 53 African airlines hold IOSA or ISSA
their safety audit confidence. approvals, and 28 are members of AFRAA.
“A shining example is in Nairobi, where there’s “I think the original Abuja Safety Target was that
more than 37 operators at Wilson Airport. None of all African airlines would be IOSA registered by
them had opted to do IOSA, simply because it was 2015. I think that simply sets you up to fail. We have
so onerous. But when we introduced the ISSA, al- to be a little bit more realistic in our goals,” IATA
most 15 immediately came up and said, ‘We want Africa & Middle East regional director for opera-
to do this,’” Munetsi said. Having completed ISSA, tions, safety & security Sharron Caunt said. “Also,
Eswatini’s national carrier, Eswatini Air, has now vol- if we look at our auditing programs, we have to
unteered to do an IOSA audit. Air Zimbabwe is also look at not just the airline’s themselves—we have
pushing ahead with its ISSA, with plans to progress to ensure that we have the infrastructure. They go
to an IOSA after that. hand-in-hand.”
“There is a perception out there that IOSA is very
demanding. It’s only very demanding if you have not – Victoria Moores

tives, which include cutting the number of runway to my work.’ We’re very good at technical innova-
excursions, are aimed at CAAs, rather than aviation tions, like better runway lights, radar or whatever,
workers performing their day-to-day duties. but not so much in innovating our approach to hu-
Mirroring IATA’s hands-on approach, Kok believes mans,” Kok said. “The Abuja Targets themselves
it is important to translate the Abuja Safety Targets are good, but the way we work with them is still
into practical actions. very formal. We go to a meeting in Entebbe and
“A lot of them don’t mean much to the average we talk about the status of the Abuja Targets, but
safety person in a smaller operator in Africa,” he we don’t give any tools.”
said. “That’s something we suffer from in safety AviAssist uses cartoons and nontechnical lan-
overall. Amongst ourselves, we understand what guage to strengthen its aviation safety messages,
we say, and we think it’s all very important. But making them more accessible. Kok is also keen
people—whose support we need—fall asleep to maximize the potential of online training, which
when we show them an IATA or ICAO document. gained greater acceptance during the pandemic.
We need to translate our very technical and often He argues that smaller operators cannot afford to
boring messages into something that people can send their staff to Montreal for safety training, and
relate to.” even if they could, the language may be too techni-
He argues that African safety needs to be re- cal. Online training offers another way to lower the
branded, making it more relevant to grassroots barriers to safety awareness.
people—and to senior government officials whose “I’m thinking maybe the 17th Abuja Target should
buy-in is needed for critical investments. be to make the Abuja Targets more understandable
“If we preach about ICAO Annex 17, the minis- for the rest of Africa,” Kok said.
ter of finance will say ‘I don’t get how that relates
CHAMPIONING AFRICAN SAFETY RESEARCH

Three decades ago, KLM offered some aviation stay updated on the latest topics.”
safety support to the Tanzanian government. That Meanwhile, larger operators, like Ethiopian Air-
gesture ultimately sparked the creation of an inde- lines and Kenya Airways, need most of their training
pendent foundation, which has become a well-re- capacity to support their own growth. The situation
spected advocate for African aviation safety. is further compounded by the generous daily travel
“AviAssist started in 1995, before there were allowances often given to civil servants, incentiv-
ICAO audits, before there were IATA IOSA [audit] izing them to train abroad rather than building up
programs,” AviAssist Foundation director Tom Kok local resources. AviAssist’s mission is to improve
told ATW. African safety by training people locally.
Back then, IATA had raised concerns about Tan- In November 2020, AviAssist opened its first
zania’s safety standards, so KLM—wanting to main- Safety Promotion Center at the University of Rwan-
tain its own Tanzanian operations—stepped in to da, employing graduates in its offices.
help. This led to the creation of AviAssist, a joint “Over the next decade, we are planning to de-
venture between KLM and the Dutch government, in velop a similar center in western Africa, and another
close cooperation with the Flight Safety Foundation. one in southern Africa,” Kok said. “One thing that’s
AviAssist became an independent nonprofit organi- really lacking is there’s no [local] safety research.
zation in 2008, shifting its focus from KLM’s African By starting to work with African universities, that
destinations to improving aviation safety across the will really help drive policy choices based on local
whole continent. research, as opposed to data that we get from else-
“Africa is not an afterthought; it’s the only market where in the world.”
we serve,” Kok said. “The initial qualification of peo- Kok firmly believes that Africans will feel greater
ple is really good, but they qualify too few people ownership of safety interventions if they are based
and there is too little continuous professional de- on research performed in Africa.
velopment. That makes it very difficult for people to – Victoria Moores

Betting on
Hydrogen
SAF is aviation’s go-to solution for reaching carbon
net-zero targets; this airline is pursuing alternatives.
By Graham Warwick
C
an a budget carrier that is laser-focused from an energy ecosystem per-
on profitability be among those airlines spective, is significantly more effi-
that lead aviation into the age of hydro- cient than using it as a component
gen? UK-based LCC easyJet believes it of a power-to-liquid SAF,” he said.
can help set the pace and is working with aircraft and Additionally, as narrowbody operators move to-
engine manufacturers to explore the opportunities ward hydrogen, this will ease the pressure on SAF
and challenges for hydrogen in commercial aviation. supply chains and allow more of that fuel to be freed
“We need to change the way we think about this, up for the widebody and long-haul market, he said,
from looking at the fuel to the energy and the energy helping decarbonize the whole aviation sector.
ecosystem,” easyJet head of net zero Lahiru Ranas- Ranasinghe acknowledges it would be easier for
inghe said. The fundamental question, he said, is what aviation to say SAF is the solution because it uses the
is the cleanest and most efficient source of energy for same suppliers and pipelines as fossil jet fuel. This
a given application? “We are saying it’s really horses compares with the significant challenges and invest-
for courses.” ment required to deliver liquid hydrogen to aircraft.
Electrification will come at the small end of the air- “But if we look at the end-to-end ecosystem, the
craft market while hydrogen comes into its own in power-to-liquid SAF requirement will require a mas-
fuel-cell powertrains for regional aircraft, Ranasinghe sive renewable energy infrastructure investment
said. downstream,” he said. “What we might have to say is
“For the kind of aircraft we operate, you’re really the UK has to be planted entirely with wind turbines to
looking at hydrogen combustion. We see SAF [sus- be able to generate that additional power.”
tainable aviation fuel] as the mainstay for the wide- Hydrogen-powered aircraft are expected to have
body market,” he said. a more limited range than today’s kerosene-fueled
EasyJet’s view on SAF is key to its exploration of airliners because of the size and weight of cryogenic
hydrogen. liquid hydrogen tanks. Is a large airline prepared to
“We see hydrogen as very complementary with operate a distinct subfleet just so it can use hydro-
SAF for the long-term decarbonization of this indus- gen? EasyJet, after all, operates more than 300 air-
try,” Ranasinghe said. But a massive proportion of craft of one type, the Airbus A320 family—“one of the
the SAF needed to decarbonize aviation will have to most boring airlines for a plane spotter because you
come from power-to-liquid fuels, which require green basically have small, medium and large of the same
hydrogen and carbon capture. white and orange aircraft,” Ranasinghe joked.
“All the work we’ve done with our partners indi- “The simple answer is we don’t like complexity, but
cates that the direct use of hydrogen in liquid form, we also don’t see a way around it because we have

EasyJet is exploring the
potential of hydrogen to power
narrowbody aircraft and help
decarbonize aviation.
EASYJET
decarbonization targets as an airline and an industry the early days than having infrastructure everywhere.”
that are going to make our business a bit more dif-
ficult,” he noted. INDUSTRY PARTNERS
“We’re not going to flip the fleet in a couple of EasyJet is exploring hydrogen through partnerships
years,” Ranasinghe emphasized. “We use our aircraft with Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Cranfield Aerospace So-
for a little over 20 years. It will take some time from the lutions and GKN Aerospace. “We are trying to work
first aircraft entering the fleet to having those aircraft together to de-risk and accelerate this transition be-
as the majority of the fleet. We will have subfleets in cause what we are looking for is not Concorde; it’s a
that period.” bus that can fly six sectors a day, day in, day out, for
But easyJet has a base structure across Europe. 20 years,” Ranasinghe said.
Some, like London Gatwick, are massive. Others “We are providing our operational and commercial
have five or six aircraft. “We have the capability to expertise and at the same time gaining knowledge
ring-fence the localized operations in a way that and understanding of these systems that are com-
you have a hydrogen-powered subfleet confined pletely alien to us.”
to a single airport to start, and then grow from At the same time, the cooperation is building capa-
there,” he pointed out. bility at easyJet’s industry partners.
“We see plenty of challenges of hydrogen, but one “We see this as a necessity for the industry. We’ve
of the opportunities we see in the early days of the got to hit net zero by 2050 and stay net zero at worst.
hydrogen transition is that we could have the ability to We need to be going toward zero carbon emissions,
tanker in hydrogen and do a lot of our shorter sectors full stop,” Ranasinghe said. Hydrogen emits no car-
there and back with refueling only at the base.” bon, unlike SAF, which achieves CO2 reductions only
This would avoid the need to have hydrogen infra- on a life-cycle basis.
structure all over Europe. Ranasinghe posed the question: “How feasible is it
“We just need to have it at that base, which then to be cycling carbon through the atmosphere as op-
drives localized demand for hydrogen,” he said. “We posed to being able to not emit carbon at all? We will
do have to figure out the diversion factor. When you come under more and more scrutiny as an industry.
have to divert an aircraft and refuel to get it out of there, Maybe not today or tomorrow, but as the rest of the
what happens then? That to us is a bigger question in world decarbonizes.”

The BIG Clog
Europe’s air traffic control
corridors are congested
and could become worse.
By Alan Dron
E
uropean airlines, trade unions and air traffic numbers of ATCOs is still there.”
control (ATC) bodies fear that shortages of ATC He said there was confusion about staffing levels.
capacity over the continent will continue for “People aren’t sure if we don’t have enough control-
the foreseeable future. lers, or too many, or the right amount. If we take Eu-
Factors including a lack of new controllers, fail- rope as a whole, we’re possibly close to where we
ure of ATC organizations to rebuild capacity post- should be, but—and it’s a big but—they’re not neces-
pandemic, and new airspace training requirements sarily where they should be.”
for the latest military aircraft, may combine to make This meant that in some cases, “ATCOs are twid-
reducing ATC delays challenging. dling their thumbs, while others are working their
Last October’s annual report of the European backsides off,” Baumann said.
Union’s Single European Sky (SES) Performance Re-
view Body (PRB) showed there was a 400% increase AIR TRAFFIC SHIFTS
in the average delay per flight. Part of the problem has been caused by shift-
Airline lobbying group Airlines for Europe (A4E) ing patterns of airline traffic, the most obvious of
said the report documented a continued failure of which stems from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
member states to meet agreed performance plans With airspace over Russia, Ukraine and Belarus
for European airspace. A4E added the situation was out of bounds to western carriers, traffic flows have
unlikely to improve anytime soon as the PRB had removed west and south. Poland, on the edge of the
peated a 2022 recommendation that states need to conflict zone, has seen a drop in en route traffic,
take action now to avoid future capacity gaps. whereas Hungary, Romania and Germany have re-
Doing so may be difficult, as the aviation industry corded increases.
no longer holds the attraction it once did for young But the underlying problems remain skill shortag-
recruits, A4E policy director Achim Baumann said. es and a lack of applicants, Baumann said. Air navi-
“It’s a general issue with aviation that the per- gation service providers (ANSPs) are seeing experi-
ception of aviation has changed; recruiting is not enced personnel retire or leave the industry and are
as easy,” he said. “ATCOs [air traffic control officers] unable to backfill those positions with new recruits.
are a problem because they combine the shift work Baumann’s comments are at least partly backed
of unskilled workers with the stress of a pilot. Yes, up by the European Transport Workers Federa-
they’re well-paid, but the problem of dwindling tion’s air traffic management (ATM) committee

“We are working with EASA to ensure the above
is achieved; we are working with the [Eurocontrol]
network manager to understand the bottlenecks and
propose long-term strategic—not only tactical—solu-
tions; and we are continuously consulting with AN-
SPs and states to ensure that their performance plans
take into consideration the realistic traffic demand
and the resulting ATCOs staffing requirements.”
Buono disagreed with Sturtzer on the underlying
cause of personnel shortages.
“COVID is being used now as the excuse,” he
said. “Yes, some training and recruitment was de-
layed, but [ANSPs] have the means to solve these
BUNHILL/ISTOCK. issues. For the past two years the biggest offenders
are France (system implementation and strikes) and
chairman, Gauthier Sturtzer. Germany (some system implementation but mostly
“Overall in Europe, we estimate we are lacking structural staffing issues in Karlsruhe).
800 controllers to cope with the traffic,” he said. “No ATCO staff were let go during or after COVID;
“We could have used COVID to catch up with the instead they received more or less full benefits and
staff shortage,” Sturtzer argued. However, as ANSPs pay while keeping their positions. There are bottle-
experienced a sudden and severe drop in income necks and neighboring states have to take up the
during the pandemic through reduced en route fees, slack, some of which are already at +20% on 2019
they cut back on the training of new recruits. That [traffic levels] due to the situation in Ukraine.”
training pipeline has now restarted, Sturtzer said, but He was pessimistic about the near future: “Unfor-
there is a gap of two years’ worth of new personnel, tunately, the picture for 2024 is no better,” he said,
and that cohort will take years to replace, if ever. pointing out that France mandated 17,000 cancella-
Training organizations are now at full stretch and tions over 12 weeks from January so the Paris area
“we won’t be able to catch up with training, not in the control center can implement a new system, and de-
current decade,” Sturtzer said. lays and reroutes will be a feature. In Germany there
In addition, ATCOs who were made redundant, is still no solution for 2024.
were furloghed or who left the industry have proved The European Regions Airline Association
to be difficult to attract back, he said. (ERA), representing more than 55 carriers, agrees
The solution to staffing problems? Long-term with IATA’s gloomy assessment: “The prognosis
planning to bring in the right quality and quantity of for 2024 is unfortunately more of the same,” ERA
new personnel, Sturtzer said, although he accept- head of operations, air safety and infrastructure
ed that uncertainties in the income of ANSPs in the Nick Rhodes said.
short term made this difficult. Using Eurocontrol’s FATHOM tool, which provides
IATA also expressed concern about the way the insights into members’ ATM performance, in the year
situation is developing. to Dec. 1, 2023, ERA members operated 4.3% more
“Eurocontrol statistics from summer 2023 tell the flights, but ATC delays increased 42.7%, to more
story about how bad the situation is,” IATA regional than 1.8 million minutes.
director, operations, safety and security, Giancarlo Although 20% of the network is unavailable due
Buono told ATW. Eurocontrol oversees ATC opera- to the conflict in Ukraine, on the whole, this has had
tions in some 40 European countries. a limited impact for the majority of our operators,”
“Although there is less traffic than 2019 in the net- Rhodes said. “En route delays in France (Paris, Mar-
work, delays have been much higher. Staffing remains seille and Reims ACC) accounted for nearly a quar-
the major issue with regards to the available capacity. ter of all ATC delays suffered by ERA members , with
Modernization of training of ATCOs, as well as new ATC strikes a significant contributing factor, along-
harmonized European Union licensing requirements, side constraints related to the deployment of ATC
are required to ensure we will have the necessary re- system upgrades.
sources to meet the traffic demand,” he said. “Capacity problems in German airspace also fea-

tured highly, with the Karlsruhe area continuing to now a less attractive option for young people, re-
generate a high level of delay for our members. On ducing the pool of potential ATC applicants.
the ground, Amsterdam, Lisbon and Copenhagen While it is difficult to get statistics, talks with
airports have created major arrival punctuality de- CANSO members, European trade union groups
lays with ATC staffing and adverse weather being and professional staff associations all suggest that
the main drivers of delay.” a recruitment problem exists, he said.
ERA meets regularly with the Civil Air Naviga- One technical method for easing congestion in
tion Services Organisation (CANSO), ANSPs and Europe’s skies is the adoption of free route airspace,
the Eurocontrol network manager to discuss ATC which gives pilots much greater flexibility in plotting
challenges. their courses between entering one country’s aerial
“We understand that staffing issues are not quick- border and leaving it, rather than being confined to
ly remedied, with maintaining the pipeline of new tal- traditional air corridors.
ent across all facets of the industry a big challenge,” These more direct routings could save substantial
Rhodes said. “It should be noted that the majority of amounts of time and are scheduled to be rolled out
ANSPs deliver a good service. The main problems fully by CANSO’s European member states by the
occur within a small number of states, but these end of 2025. There is also an ambition for free route
states are in the core of Europe, where the highest airspace that will traverse national boundaries.
demand has always existed, and the impacts and Another way of freeing up more airspace and
costs of delays is significant.” reducing congestion is to make greater use of air-
space traditionally blocked off for military use.
COMPLEX AIRSPACE For example, several nations have an approach
Meanwhile, CANSO says that while it understands to this dual-use airspace that can be summarized as
A4E’s focus on the PRB statistic of a 400% rise in being “as civil as possible, as military as needed.”
delays, there are many other factors to consider. However, this approach in several European na-
“There’s a lot more to it. It’s always been a chal- tions may be adversely affected by the introduc-
lenge in such a complex airspace as Europe, which tion of latest-generation fighter aircraft, such as the
is very busy and had a growing amount of traffic be- Lockheed Martin F-35 and Dassault Rafale F4, which
fore COVID and the Ukraine war. In some cases, yes, need larger blocks of airspace to train effectively.
there’s a lack of capacity,” CANSO manager, Europe Their longer range and higher-performance radar
policy and advocacy, Johnny Pring said, adding that mean that they need airspace areas with dimen-
the entire aviation sector was still in recovery mode sions of around 200 nm for the F-35 and 150 nm for
from the pandemic. the Rafale F4.
Expected revenue levels plummeted during the While that military element may be a small factor
pandemic and have still not recovered, he said. Be- in Europe’s seeming inability to address air traffic
cause of the nature of ATC, it was not possible dur- congestion and delays, the situation is so vulnerable
ing the pandemic to mothball assets in the way that that small factors quickly add up to chaos.
airlines and airports could, and training was one of The overall problem is that Europe’s governments
the few areas where ANSPs could cut their costs. have never gotten behind the technological solu-
Training during the pandemic “just wasn’t pos- tions. As IATA regional VP, Europe, Rafael Schvartz-
sible because of social distancing rules” and ANSPs man, said in IATA’s Airlines magazine, ATM in Europe
“are still playing catch-up from that,” Pring said. “still suffers from fragmented skies and underinvest-
He also warned that ANSPs face a wave of re- ment, making delays common especially during the
tirements over the coming decade—“not just ATCOs peak summer months. … Service levels are falling
but air safety engineers who deal with the electron- even as charges rise.”
ics and maintain all the infrastructure.” Europe’s SES ATM modernization program “con-
It takes up to three years to train an ATCO, and, tinues to suffer from a lack of political will,” Schvartz-
once qualified, they are trained for a particular geo- man said. “It could triple airspace capacity and re-
graphical area, so cannot easily be moved to areas duce carbon emissions by up to 10%, but politicians
where shortages might exist. Pring echoed the com- have left these significant gains on the table for over
ments of A4E’s Baumann that aviation generally is two decades.”

Key Routes A selection of 50 new routes starting in March/April 2024.
Weekly Start
Airline Departing airport Code Country Arrival airport Code Country Aircraft
frequency date
Aer Lingus Dublin DUB Ireland Minneapolis-St Paul MSP US A330-200 4 April 29
Air Arabia Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi AUH UAE Yekaterinburg SVX Russia A320 2 March 31
Air Arabia Maroc Tetouan TTU Morocco Barcelona BCN Spain A320 3 April 2
Air Cairo Alexandria HBE Egypt Dammam DMM Saudi Arabia A320 2 April 3
Air Canada Vancouver YVR Canada Singapore Changi SIN Singapore 787-9 4 April 3
Air France Paris Charles de Gaulle CDG France Verona VRN Italy E190 3 April 2
AirAsia Kuala Lumpur KUL Malaysia Jaipur JAI India A320neo 4 April 21
American Airlines Dallas-Fort Worth DFW US Tulum TQO Mexico 737-800 14 March 28
Avianca Bogota BOG Colombia Montreal Trudeau YUL Canada A320neo 4 March 31
BermudAir Bermuda BDA Bermuda Baltimore/Washington BWI US E170 3 March 18
British Airways London Gatwick LGW UK Agadir AGA Morocco A320 3 March 31
Delta Air Lines New York JFK JFK US Munich MUC Germany 767-300/-400 3 April 9
easyJet Birmingham BHX UK Berlin Brandenburg BER Germany A320 3 April 1
Egyptair Alexandria HBE Egypt Istanbul IST Turkiye 737-800 3 April 2
Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi AUH UAE Boston Logan BOS US 787-9 4 March 31
Finnair Helsinki HEL Finland Wroclaw WRO Poland E190 7 April 1
Fly One Chisinau RMO Moldova Tel Aviv TLV Israel A320 2 March 3
Garuda Indonesia Jakarta CGK Indonesia Doha DOH Qatar 777-300 7 April 4
Buenos Aires Ministro
GOL Linhas Aereas Bogota BOG Colombia EZE Argentina 737 MAX 8 4 April 1
Pistarini
Gulf Air Bahrain BAH Bahrain Ras al Khaimah RKT UAE A320 2 April 1
HK Express Hong Kong HKG Hong Kong Beijing Daxing PKX China A320 7 March 12
ITA Airways Rome Fiumicino FCO Italy London City LCY UK A220-100 12 March 31
JetBlue Airways Boston Logan BOS US Dublin DUB Ireland A320-family 7 March 13
JetSMART Bogota BOG Colombia Medellin MDE Colombia A320 28 March 14
Jetstar Airways Sydney SYD Australia Osaka Kansai KIX Japan 787-8 3 April 2
Jetstar Japan Osaka Kansai KIX Japan Taipei Taiwan Taoyuan TPE Taiwan A320 7 March 31
Juneyao Airlines Shanghai Pudong PVG China Athens ATH Greece 787-9 3 April 2
LEVEL Barcelona BCN Spain Miami MIA US A330-200 3 March 31
Warsaw Frederic
LOT Polish Airlines WAW Poland Tashkent TAS Uzbekistan 737 MAX 8 4 March 13
Chopin
Luxair Luxembourg LUX Luxembourg Manchester MAN UK Dash 8-400/8Q 3 March 29
Norwegian Aarhus AAR Denmark Alicante ALC Spain 737 MAX 8 2 March 31
Porter Airlines Toronto Pearson YYZ Canada Las Vegas Harry Reid LAS US E195 E2 7 March 5
Qantas Sydney SYD Australia Port Moresby POM Papua New Guinea 737-800 2 April 1
Qatar Airways Doha DOH Qatar Osaka Kansai KIX Japan A350-900 7 March 1
Royal Jordanian Amman AMM Jordan Tripoli TIP Libya A320/E195 E2 2 April 3
Ryanair Agadir AGA Morocco Fes FEZ Morocco 737-800 2 March 31
SAS Scandinavian
Oslo OSL Norway Milan Linate LIN Italy E195 1 March 31
Airlines
Saudia Jeddah JED Saudi Arabia Chittagong CGP Bangladesh 777 4 April 3
Southwest Airlines Baltimore/Washington BWI US Belize City BZE Belize 737 MAX 8 1 March 9
Starlux Airlines Taichung RMQ Taiwan Da Nang DAD Vietnam A321neo 3 April 2
SWISS Zurich ZRH Switzerland Washington Dulles IAD US A330-300 7 March 28
Thai AirAsia Bangkok Don Mueang DMK Thailand Okinawa Naha OKA Japan A320neo 4 April 2
Thai Airways Bangkok Suvarnabhumi BKK Thailand Cochin COK India A320 3 April 2
Transavia France Montpellier MPL France Istanbul IST Turkiye 737-800 2 April 5
United Airlines Chicago O'Hare ORD US Tulum TQO Mexico 737-900 1 April 6
Virgin Atlantic
London Heathrow LHR UK Bengaluru BLR India 787-9 7 March 31
Airways
Vistara Mumbai BOM India Paris Charles de Gaulle CDG France 787-9 5 March 28
Viva Aerobus Monterrey MTY Mexico Austin-Bergstrom AUS US A320 3 March 22
Atlanta Hartsfield-
WestJet Edmonton YEG Canada ATL US 737-700 7 April 29
Jackson
Zipair Tokyo Tokyo Narita NRT Japan Vancouver YVR Canada 787-8 3 March 13
Data provided by OAG Schedules Analyser (correct as of Feb. 8, 2023, and subject to change)

Routes Insights
China Eastern Airlines will become the first
Chinese carrier to offer regular scheduled
New
service to Saudi Arabia when it connects
Shanghai Pudong International Airport and
Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport
beginning in April.
Horizons
SAS, China Eastern and
Air France are seeking out
new markets.
BY DAVID CASEY
S
AS Scandinavian Airlines plans to launch
daily summer flights from Copenhagen to
Atlanta as part of its network realignment
ahead of switching alliances. China Eastern
Airlines will establish the first regular scheduled
service from Shanghai to Riyadh, while Air France
is introducing nonstop flights between Paris and
Phoenix, becoming the only service between it co-founded in 1997, and move to SkyTeam.
France and the US city. The market between Copenhagen and Atlanta is un-
served nonstop at present, according to OAG Sched-
COPENHAGEN-ATLANTA ules Analyser data. Delta has connected the cities in
Star Alliance member SAS Scandinavian Airlines the past, providing scheduled service for five years from
plans to open a new transatlantic route from Den- May 2006. However, US Transportation Department data
mark’s capital Copenhagen to Atlanta, a key hub shows the city pair has been unserved since August 2011.
for rival alliance SkyTeam. In addition to the new Atlanta route, SAS plans to in-
From June 17, the carrier will introduce flights crease frequencies from CPH to Boston Logan (BOS),
between Copenhagen Airport (CPH) and Atlanta New York John F. Kennedy (JFK) and Toronto Pearson
Hartsfield-Jackson (ATL), operating daily during (YYZ) this summer.
the summer months using Airbus A330-300s.
Frequencies will reduce to 5X-weekly during the SHANGHAI-RIYADH
winter season onboard A350-900s. China Eastern Airlines is set to become the first Chinese
Atlanta, a primary hub for Delta Air Lines, will carrier to launch regular scheduled service to Saudi Ara-
become the ninth destination served by SAS in bia as diplomatic and economic ties between the two na-
North America, alongside flights to Boston, Chi- tions continue to strengthen.
cago, Los Angeles, Newark, New York, San Fran- The SkyTeam alliance member—alongside Chi-
cisco, Toronto and Washington. nese counterparts Air China, China Southern Airlines
The move is a first step by the Scandinavian car- and Xiamen Airlines—has previously offered nonstop
rier to realign its network ahead of switching airline flights to points in the Middle East country. However,
alliances. SAS filed for US Chapter 11 bankruptcy these have been limited-time services specifically de-
protection in 2022 as part of its ongoing SAS For- signed to accommodate religious traffic during the an-
ward restructuring plan, which runs to 2026. nual Hajj pilgrimage.
In October 2023, it was confirmed that a con- The carrier’s first regular scheduled route will com-
sortium, made up of Air France-KLM and invest- mence on April 8, connecting its Shanghai Pudong (PVG)
ment firms Castlelake and Lind Invest, had been hub and Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport (RUH).
selected as the winning bidder in SAS’s exit financ- The 4,509-mi. (3,918-nm) sector will be served three
ing solicitation process. Following completion of times per week using A330-200s.
this deal, SAS will leave Star Alliance, a group that The planned launch comes just eight days before

ROUTE PERFORMANCE
China Southern also
starts operating to the COPENHAGEN-ATLANTA
kingdom. The Guang- Carrier: SAS Scandinavian Airlines
zhou-based airline Aircraft: Airbus A330-300
plans to introduce Frequency: Daily
service linking Beijing Start date: June 17, 2024
Daxing International Distance: 4,590 mi. (3,989 nm)
Airport (PKX) and RUH, O&D traffic demand (2023): 17,534
flying twice a week O&D change vs 2019: -7.2%
with A330-300s. Average base fare (2023): $764.56
According to data
from OAG, Saudia is SHANGHAI-RIYADH
the only airline cur- Carrier: China Eastern Airlines
rently offering non- Aircraft: Airbus A330-200
stop flights between Frequency: 3X-weekly
Saudi Arabia and Chi- Start date: April 8, 2024
na, with a total of four Distance: 4,509 mi. (3,918 nm)
routes. The carrier op- O&D traffic demand (2023): 9,804
erates longstanding O&D change vs 2019: -0.6%
flights to Guangzhou Average base fare (2023): $1,141
VADIM NEFEDOV/GETTY IMAGES
(CAN) from Jeddah’s
King Abdulaziz (JED) and RUH, flying 2X-weekly and PARIS-PHOENIX
3X-weekly, respectively. In addition, Saudia has recently Carrier: Air France
introduced two new services from JED and RUH to PKX. Aircraft: Boeing 787-9
Prior to the pandemic, O&D traffic between Saudi Frequency: 3X-weekly
Arabia and mainland China totaled some 300,000 two- Start date: May 23, 2024
way passengers in 2019, Sabre Market Intelligence data Distance: 5,468 mi. (4,752 nm)
shows, representing an increase of 19% on the previous O&D traffic demand (2023): 55,433
12 months. The increased air service between mainland O&D change vs 2019: 40.6%
China and Saudi Arabia comes amid strengthening dip- Average base fare (2023): $654.06
lomatic and economic ties. Trade between the two coun-
tries was worth more than $106 billion in 2022, according
Data provided by Sabre Market Intelligence.
to Saudi government figures, helped by Chinese imports
of oil. Inward investment is also flowing into Saudi Arabia
from Chinese companies as the Middle Eastern country
seeks to diversify its economy away from oil as part of its be deployed on the 5,468-mi. (4,752-nm) sector.
Vision 2030 strategy. Phoenix currently has two nonstop connec-
tions to Europe, with oneworld alliance partners
PARIS-PHOENIX American Airlines and British Airways each serv-
Air France is launching service between Paris and Phoe- ing LHR daily using 777-200s and A350-1000s,
nix in May, marking the first nonstop flights between respectively. From May 18, German leisure carri-
France and the US city. er Condor will also resume 3X-weekly seasonal
The French capital becomes the third European des- flights from FRA onboard A330-900neos.
tination to be served nonstop from Phoenix, along with For Air France, Phoenix will become the 17th
Frankfurt (FRA) and London Heathrow (LHR). It is estimat- US city in the airline’s network served nonstop
ed that the new route will provide a $30 million annual from CDG, compared with 14 during the summer
economic boost to the Arizona city. 2023 season. Alongside the addition of PHX,
Flights from Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG) to Phoenix the carrier plans to offer its recently launched
Sky Harbor (PHX) will begin on May 23, operating three Raleigh-Durham route year-round and return to
times per week during the summer season on Tuesdays, Minneapolis-St. Paul in May, having suspended
Thursdays and Saturdays. A three-class Boeing 787-9 will flights in September 2022.

ATW Looks Back
of Award Recipients and Key
By Linda Blachly
In the run-up to the 50th anniversary of the ATW Air Trans-
port Achievement Awards, which will be held May 31 in
Dubai, here’s a look at past Airline of the Year award winners
as well as key industry events from ATW’s archives.
The fourth decade of the Awards—2004-2013—spanned
the 9/11 terrorist attacks, further industry consolidation and
the 2012 global financial crisis, when fuel prices soared to
record highs.
The decade also saw the introduction into service or pro-
gram announcement of new aircraft types, including the Air-
bus A320neo, A350 XWB and A380; ATR 72-600; Boeing 787
2004 AIRLINE OF THE YEAR: 2005 AIRLINE OF THE YEAR: 2006 AIRLINE OF THE YEAR: 2007 AIRLINE OF THE YEAR:
QANTAS, for an unsurpassed AIR FRANCE-KLM GROUP, for CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS, for ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS, for
record in safety and technical its historic merger with KLM, its ability to overcome extreme transforming into a dynamic and
excellence, a well-earned and achieving a consistent and adversity through a decade profitable airline. ANA embraced
reputation for superb customer enviable track record of earnings, that included the 1997-98 Asian simplification across the business,
service, a commitment to cost posting cumulative profits and currency crisis, avian flu, the reducing the number of fleet
containment, and a willingness to revenues. bumpy 1998 transition to the new types, and made it easier for
try new things. Hong Kong International Airport, passengers to buy tickets and
and the 2003 SARS outbreak. obtain boarding passes.
2009 AIRLINE OF THE YEAR:

2008 AIRLINE OF THE YEAR: ASIANA AIRLINES, for
SINGAPORE AIRLINES, for establishing a sterling reputation
maintaining financial momentum for operational excellence and
and staying profitable in every raising the quality of passenger
year of its existence, consistently service, earning a place among
innovating and improving to the first tier of the world’s airlines
become the world’s 11th largest in a challenging competitive
airline by passenger traffic. environment.

On 50 Years
Industry Events
and 737 MAX; the Bombardier CSeries and CRJ1000; the
COMAC C919; the Embraer E170/190 and E2; and the
Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) program.
In addition, the industry stepped up initiatives to
reduce aviation’s effects on the environment, including
airlines operating the first flights using a mix of biofuels
and jet fuel.
Finally, social media sites became the newest tools in distribu-
tion strategies as passengers began to take charge of their air
travel process at home via growing internet access, and at the air-
port through self-ticketing and self-check-in.
ATW Airline of the Year—

the Fourth Decade
2013 – All Nippon Airways

(39th Airline of the Year)
2012 – Air New Zealand
2011 – Emirates Airline
2010 – Air New Zealand
2009 – Asiana
2008 – Singapore Airlines
2010 AIRLINE OF THE YEAR: AIR 2011 AIRLINE OF THE 2012 AIRLINE OF THE YEAR:
NEW ZEALAND, for identifying YEAR: EMIRATES AIRLINE, AIR NEW ZEALAND, for 2007 – All Nippon Airways
and implementing a multifaceted for becoming a leader in exemplifying how innovative (33rd Airline of the Year)
commercial strategy that enabled commercial air transport, leadership and team spirit can 2006 – Cathay Pacific Airways
it to maintain a consecutive profit driving innovation in operations, ensure that a legacy airline can (32nd Airline of the Year)
streak in reaction to the economic aircraft performance and still be an industry leader.
2005 – Air France/KLM Group
downturn that had other carriers customer service.
(31st Airline of the Year)
searching urgently for new
business models. 2004 – Qantas
Platinum
Sponsor
2013 AIRLINE OF THE YEAR: ALL NIPPON

AIRWAYS, for expanding its presence in the
international arena while strengthening its leading
position in the fiercely competitive Japanese market.

February 2004: The Embraer E170 received type certification from civil January 2009: A global recession meant
aviation authorities in Brazil, Europe and the US. that “the industry is probably going to face the
toughest two years that it’s ever faced,” said IATA
February 2004: Singapore Airlines began operating the world’s chief economist Brian Pearce.
longest nonstop scheduled service, between Singapore and Los
Angeles, using Airbus A340-500s with flights of up to 19 hours. March 2010: The ATR 42-600 completed its
first flight.
March 2004: The 100-seat Embraer E190 made its first flight. Launch
customer New York-based JetBlue received its first delivery in 2005. April 2010: An ash cloud from Iceland’s
Eyjafjallajokull volcano led to the closure of
May 2004: The Air France-KLM merger was finalized. most EU airspace for nearly a week, an action
heavily criticized by many airlines and industry trade groups.
October 2004: The last Boeing 757 rolled out, ending a production run
of 1,050 aircraft over 22 years. It was delivered to Shanghai Airlines. May 2010: British Airways and Iberia signed a definitive merger
agreement in April, creating a third mega-airline group in Europe, which
December 2004: The first flight of the 108-seat Embraer E195 took place. was approved in January 2011 under the name International Airlines
Group.
January 2005: Air Canada was announced as the launch
customer for the Embraer E175. August 2010: Chile’s LAN and Brazil’s TAM signed a nonbinding
agreement to merge, followed by a binding agreement in January 2011.
January 2005: Airbus revealed the A380 in Toulouse, The merger was finalized in June 2012, forming LATAM Airlines Group.
France, and the aircraft made its debut performance at the
2005 Paris Air Show. October 2010: Shareholders of United Airlines and Continental
Airlines approved the merger of the two carriers, which was completed
June 2006: Internet and airport kiosk self-check-in use March 3, 2012.
grew, enhancing convenience for passengers and cutting
costs for airlines. December 2010: The first Bombardier CRJ1000s were delivered to Air
Nostrum and Brit Air.
July 2007: Boeing rolled out the 787. After a series of
delays, the widebody entered service with All Nippon December 2010: Airbus launched the A320neo program with the
Airways in October 2011. option of CFM International LEAP-X or Pratt & Whitney PW1000G geared
turbofan engines.
October 2007: The ATR 72-600 series aircraft was
announced; the prototype, converted from an ATR 72- June 2011: KLM Royal Dutch Airlines operated the first-ever
500, first flew in July 2009. scheduled commercial flight partially powered by biofuel when it flew
a Boeing 737-800 from Amsterdam to Paris Charles de Gaulle that
November 2007: The European Parliament voted to performed “exactly the same—as expected—as flights on traditional
include aviation in the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme kerosene.”
from 2011 and to place tighter pollution caps on airlines
than had been initially proposed by the European Commission. August 2011: Malaysia Airlines, Air Asia and long-haul LCC
AirAsia X entered into a comprehensive collaboration framework,
February 2008: Virgin Atlantic operated a Boeing 747 demonstration which was considered the first major consolidation in the Southeast Asia
flight from London Heathrow to Amsterdam partially powered by biofuel. region.
March 2008: The EU-US Open Skies agreement came August 2011: Boeing launched the 737 MAX program, and offered
into force, creating a single transatlantic Open Aviation three variants: the MAX 7, -8 and -9.
Area.
December 2011: COMAC began production of the C919, which made
March 2008: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries launched the its maiden flight in May 2017. The C919 received its CAAC type certificate
Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) program with an order for in September 2022 and completed its first commercial flight, operated
25 aircraft from All Nippon Airways. by China Eastern Airlines, in May 2023.
May 2008: Soaring fuel prices put a quick end to US June 2013: Embraer launched its second-
airlines’ hopes for another year of profit, with the nation’s 10 generation E-Jet, the E2, at the Paris Air Show
largest carriers posting a cumulative net loss of $11.8 billion. and secured a firm order from Utah-based
regional airline SkyWest for 100 E-175-E2s.
May 2008: The Sukhoi Superjet 100 made its first flight from
Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Russia. The new regional jet made its first June 2013: The Airbus A350 XWB made its
commercial flight with then-Armenian flag carrier Armavia in 2011. first flight.
May 2008: China established the Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China September 2013: Bombardier’s first CSeries
(COMAC) in Shanghai with a focus on commercial jets in the 150-seat aircraft, the CS100 (now the Airbus A220), made
size category. Beijing said it could compete with some Boeing and its initial flight, and entered commercial service
Airbus models by 2020. in June 2016 with launch customer SWISS.
Sponsorships are available for the 50th Annual ATW Awards Gala that will take place on May 31 in Dubai.
For more information on this prestigious event go to: aviationweek.com/atw-awards.

Customer Service
CONTACT US
Air Transport World (ATW) Marketing Services PRODUCT SALES
2121 K St. NW, Suite 210 Director, Digital Customer Solutions: book.orders@informa.com
Washington, DC 20037, USA Jason Washburn
www.aviationweek.com/air-transport jason.washburn@informa.com AD PRODUCTION
Ad Operations Specialist –
President: Gregory D. Hamilton Classified Advertising Jacqi Fisher
hamilton@aviationweek.com Advertising Sales Representative: jacqi.fisher@informa.com
Beth Eddy
betheddy@aviationexhibits.com Reprints/Permission Sales
Publisher /Managing Director, Media & Nick Iademarco
Marketing Services: Iain Blackhall (UK) Business and Finance Operation Sr. Director of Sales
iain.blackhall@aviationweek.co.uk Director, Business Operations: Wright’s Media
Gabriel Balmes informa@wrightsmedia.com
ADVERTISING gabriel.balmes@informa.com US Toll Free
U.S. Sales Offices Tel: +1 877-652-5295
Senior Director, North America Media: Media/Marketing Communications Int’l. Tel: +1 281-419-5725
Rob Howlett Director, Marketing Communications:
rob.howlett@aviationweek.com Elizabeth Sisk INTELLIGENCE, FLEET & DATA
elizabeth.sisk@aviationweek.com SERVICES
Europe, Middle East, Africa SERVICES SVP, Intelligence and Data Services:
Sales Offices Anne McMahon
Managing Director: Subscription Services anne.mcmahon@aviationweek.com
Andrea Prudente (UK) Tel: +1 877-368-6343
andrea.rossiprudente@aviationweek. Outside US Senior Director, Intelligence and Data:
co.uk Tel: +1 913-850-6929 Matt Holdreith
Fax: +1 913-967-1719 matt.holdreith@aviationweek.com
atw@aviationweek.com Marketing Director, Intelligence and
Asia-Pacific Sales Offices n Qualified subscriptions Data Services: Melissa Crum
Managing Director, Asia-Pacific Media: n Paid subscriptions melissa.crum@aviationweek.com
Paul Burton
n Change of address
paul.burton@aviationweek.com
n Back issues/single copy sales
n Bulk orders
n World Airline Report
INDEX OF COMPANIES
AND ADVERTISERS
ASM.......................................................... C2 CFM International.............................26-27 Orlando International Airport............. C4

asm-global.com cfmaeroengines.com ORLANDOAIRPORTS.NET
ATW Airline Awards...............................39 Fleet Discovery......................................... 4 Super Terminal Expo............................ C3

aviationweek.com/atw-awards aviationweek.com/FDintel
Universal Air Travel Plan.......................33

Aviation Daily...........................................51 GAD............................................................. 2 UATP.com
aviationweek.com/AVDgroup gad-americas.aviationweek.com
CAPA..........................................................15
Get Key Developments and Analysis

of the Commercial Aviation Market
Part of an Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) membership, Aviation Daily will
provide you the data and intelligence you need to stay informed of this complex market.
Learn more at: aviationweek.com/MarketBrieﬁngs
EMPOWER YOUR WORKFORCE WITH A GROUP OR SITE LICENSE

For more information visit: aviationweek.com/AVDgroup

News Briefs
For daily news stories and full news coverage, go to AviationWeek.com/air-transport
Slow progress for European airline consolidation

Europe’s long-awaited airline consolidation story contin- the remaining shares.
ues to unfold, but the process remains slow for the parties The EC opted not to give the green light to the deal at the
involved. International Airlines Group’s (IAG) proposed ac- first phase over concerns that the transaction could reduce
quisition of Spanish carrier Air Europa is the latest to hit a competition on short- and long-haul routes in and out of It-
stumbling block after the European Commission (EC) has aly. Lufthansa has offered concessions, and regulators now
“stopped the clock” in its investigation into the €400 million have until June 6 to make a decision.
($435 million) deal. Although ITA and Lufthansa unions have written to the EC
The tie-up is one of three major M&A moves underway urging the approval of the deal, reports suggest Lufthansa is
across Europe—each of which is facing scrutiny as their im- growing frustrated with Brussels and may walk away if the
pact on the market is assessed. The EC launched an in-depth additional concessions demanded are too strict.
investigation into the IAG-Air Europa transaction in January, A third European consolidation deal seems to be faring
outlining concerns that competition may be reduced on sev- better. Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith is confident that the
eral domestic and international routes in and out of Spain. group will be successful in its bid to take an initial 19% stake
These fears center on flights from Madrid-Barajas Airport in Scandinavian Airlines (SAS), which will see the Star Alli-
(MAD) to some major cities in Europe, as well as service to ance co-founder switch to SkyTeam.
destinations in South America where there is little competi- “If things continue as they do, and everything is on time
tion from other airlines. The probe has also been evaluating up until today, we expect the exit of SAS from Star Alliance to
whether the two parties’ strong slot portfolio in Madrid could take place in Q2 and for SAS to enter SkyTeam immediately,”
create barriers for other carriers to provide services there. Smith said in late-February.
Although a decision on the deal was expected by June As well as launching a codeshare partnership, Air France
7, the acquisition is now facing further delays. The EC con- and KLM are expected to increase flying to SAS’ hubs, while
firmed on March 1 that it has paused its investigation pend- the Scandinavian carrier will add frequencies to Amsterdam
ing “missing information” that has been requested. and Paris. Additionally, SAS plans to begin flying to SkyTeam
“Once the missing information is supplied by the parties, member Delta Air Lines’ Atlanta hub, and it could join the
the clock is restarted and the legal deadline for the com- transatlantic joint venture between Air France, Delta, KLM
mission’s decision is then adjusted accordingly,” a spokes- and Virgin Atlantic in the future.
person said. It therefore seems likely that a verdict won’t be However, one deal yet to get out of the blocks is the priva-
reached until the third or fourth quarter of the year. tization of TAP Air Portugal. The airline was put up for sale
Alongside this deal, the fate of another European con- last September, but the resignation of Portuguese Prime
solidation move hinges on an EC investigation. In January, Minister António Costa in November has thrown the project
regulators opened an in-depth investigation into Lufthan- off course.
sa’s plans to buy an initial 41% stake in ITA Airways, the Air France-KLM, IAG and Lufthansa have all expressed in-
successor to Alitalia, with the opportunity to later acquire terest in a TAP stake.
FAA finds multiple Boeing production quality issues

FAA’s investigation into Boeing’s 737 MAX production quality expert panel’s recommendations.
and major supplier Spirit AeroSystems has found multiple in- “Making foundational change will require a sustained ef-
stances where the companies allegedly failed to comply with fort from Boeing’s leadership, and we are going to hold them
manufacturing quality control requirements. accountable every step of the way, with mutually understood
“Non-compliance issues” in Boeing’s manufacturing pro- milestones and expectations,” he said.
cess control, parts handling and storage, and product control The plan must also include steps Boeing will take to ma-
were discovered, according to a March 4 FAA statement. ture its Safety Management System (SMS) program, which
The investigation follows a six-week audit of Boeing trig- it committed to in 2019. Boeing also must integrate its SMS
gered by the Jan. 5 door plug blowout on an Alaska Airlines program with a quality management system, which will en-
737 MAX 9. It is one of several safety-related reviews Boeing is sure the same level of rigor and oversight is applied to the
undergoing. A separate expert panel review of the company’s company’s suppliers and create a measurable, systemic shift
safety systems found numerous areas that need improve- in manufacturing quality control.
ment, including some related to production quality assurance. In response, Boeing vowed to develop a comprehensive
FAA administrator Mike Whitaker said Boeing must ad- action plan. The manufacturer has until late May to provide
dress the audit’s findings as part of a broader response to the the agency with a plan.

ORL
OR
RLA
AN
ND
N DO
DO
BC1
B n
at th Heart f t all.
• #1 Busiest Airport in Florida • Serving Florida’s Largest Catchment Area • 6 of the World’s Top 10 Theme Parks
(13 million+ within a 2-hour drive)
• #2 Busiest U.S. O&D Airport • 430+ Hotels & Resorts/30k+
• 150+ Nonstop Destinations Vacation Rental properties
• #4 Largest U.S. Airport by Landmass
• 30+ Airlines (Max Market Share <20%) • 175+ Golf Courses in Central Florida
• 1st U.S. Airport with Intercity Rail
• Group VI/A380 Capable • 45 Minutes to Port Canaveral (world’s
• #1 U.S. Meeting & Convention Destination
busiest cruise port)
• 4 Parallel Runways
• #2 in U.S. for Job Growth
• Foreign Trade Zone #42
• #1 Best Large City to Start a Business
.Y Fl da A p t f h c ®
HER
HE
ER
RE
E O R L AN DOAIR PORTS.N ET

Atw202404 DL

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Atw202404 DL

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

MARCH/APRIL 2024 AviationWeek.

The World’s Leading Route

From route trafﬁc forecasts and collaborative partnership solutions,

For more information go to asm-global.com

23 SUMMER SQUEEZE 40 BETTING ON HYDROGEN

34 AIMING FOR SAFETY

Aviationweek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 1

5 Editorial 45 Key Routes Gregory Hamilton

Is Latin American aviation by Linda Blachly or single copies via http://atwonline.com/

CONNECT WITH ATW

Aviationweek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 3

Aircraft Insight to Grow Your Business

Fleet Discovery offers dynamic access to in-depth aircraft fleet intelligence.

Identify New Research the Complete Analyze Industry Generate

Learn More About Fleet Discovery

Or call Melissa Crum at +1 913 284 2951 | melissa.crum@aviationweek.com

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 5

6 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

on Las Vegas, which it had been serving 14X-weekly,

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 7

8 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

Latin America’s Largest Aviation Markets

Source: CAPA-Centre for Aviation and OAG

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 9

– Interview by KURT HOFMANN

10 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 11

12 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

Bogota El Dorado International Airport.

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 13

14 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

16 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 17

18 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 19

20 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 21

JetSMART’s Colombian subsidiary launched

22 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 23

24 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

SEAN GALLUP/GETTY IMAGES

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 25

92% asset availability

LEAP turns heads in the boardroom. cfmaeroengines.com

28 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

LOGAN CYRUS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 29

30 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 31

32 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

The World’s Trusted Payment Platform

34 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

Abuja Safety Targets Status of Implementation

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 35

36 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

BREAKING THE AVERSION TO AUDITS

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 37

CHAMPIONING AFRICAN SAFETY RESEARCH

38 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

40 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW

AviationWeek.com/ATW | March/April 2024 | ATW 41

42 ATW | March/April 2024 | AviationWeek.com/ATW