Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

Probability
Contents

1. Theorems on Probability ...................................................................................................................................2

2. Binomial Probability Distributions ............................................................................................................ 10

3. Poisson Probability Distribution ................................................................................................................. 15

4. Normal Probability Distribution ................................................................................................................. 19

5. Probability Distribution .................................................................................................................................. 26

6. Mathematical Expectation............................................................................................................................ 28

7. Chi-Square Distribution ................................................................................................................................. 31

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1. Theorems on Probability

A. Addition Theorem:
If 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 are not mutually exclusive Events:
1. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) OR 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴&𝐵)
2. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
If 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 are mutually exclusive events, then 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0, 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 0, 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) = 0
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 0
1. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
2. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶)
B. Multiplication Theorem:
If 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 are independents’ Events:
1. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴&𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 𝑃(𝐴̅)𝑃(𝐵̅ )
2. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴&𝐵&𝐶) and 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ∩ 𝐶̅ ) = 𝑃(𝐴̅)𝑃(𝐵̅)𝑃(𝐶̅ )
C. Conditional Probability:
Multiplication theorem is not applicable when events are dependent.
If A and B are two dependents’ Events:
1. Probability of B, given A has already occurred is denoted by 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) and defined by
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = .
𝑃(𝐴)
2. Probability of A, given B has already occurred is denoted by 𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) and defined by
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵⁄𝐴) = .
𝑃(𝐴)
Examples:
1. A throw is made with two dice. The probability of getting a score of 10 points is…
Answer: Total number of spaces

𝑛 = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),

(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),

(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}

∴ 𝑛(𝑆) = 36

Event: A (score of 10 points) = {(4, 6), (5,5), (6,4)}

∴ 𝑛(𝐴) = 3

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Required probability of getting a score of 10 points is 𝑃(𝐴) = 3/36 = 1/12.

2. A throw is made with two dice. The probability of getting a score of at least10 points is…
Answer: Here 𝑛(𝑆) = 36

Event: A (score of at least 10 points) = {(4,6), (5,5), (5,6), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}

∴ 𝑛(𝐴) = 6

Required probability of getting a score of at least 10 points is 𝑃(𝐴) = 6/36 = 1/6.

3. In a single throw of two dice, the probability of getting more than 7 points is…
Answer: Here 𝑛(𝑆) = 36

Event: A (score more than 7 points) = {(2,6), (3,5), (3,6), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (5,3),

(5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}

∴ 𝑛(𝐴) = 14

Required probability of getting more than 7 points is 𝑃(𝐴) = 15/36 = 5/12.

4. In a single throw of two dice, the probability that the total score is a prime number is…
Answer: Here 𝑛(𝑆) = 36, Prime numbers are = 1,2,3,5,7,11.

Event: A (total score is prime number) = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3),

(2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (4,1), (4,3), (5,2), (5,6), (6,1), (6,5)}

∴ 𝑛(𝐴) = 15

Required probability that the total score is a prime number is 𝑃(𝐴) = 15/36 = 5/12.

5. A throw is made with two dice. The probability of getting a score a perfect square is…
Answer: Here 𝑛(𝑆) = 36, Perfect square numbers = 1, 4, 9.

Event: A (total score is perfect square)= {(1,3)(2,2)(3,1)(3,6)(4,5)(5,4)(6,3)}

∴ 𝑛(𝐴) = 7

Required probability of getting a score a perfect square is 𝑃(𝐴) = 7/36.

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6. A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. The probability of getting a club
card is…
Answer: One card drawn from a pack of 52 cards 𝑛(𝑆) = 52𝐶1 = 52 ways.

A-be the event of getting a club card, 𝑛(𝐴) = 13𝐶1 = 13

Required probability of getting a club card is 𝑃(𝐴) = 13/52 = 1/4.

7. Two cards are drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. The probability that both
the cards are spade is…
Answer: Two cards drawn from a pack of 52 cards, 𝑛(𝑆) = 52𝐶2 = 1326

A-be the event of getting both cards are spade is, 𝑛(𝐴) = 13𝐶2 = 78.

Required probability of getting both cards are spade is 𝑃(𝐴) = 78/1326 = 1/17.

8. Three cards are drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. The probability of getting
all of them red is…
Answer: Three cards drawn from a pack of 52 cards 𝑛(𝑆) = 52𝐶3 = 22100

Total red cards are 26.

A-be the event of getting all of them red is 𝑛(𝐴) = 26𝐶3 = 2600

Required probability of getting all of them red is 𝑃(𝐴) = 2600/22100 = 2/17.

9. A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. The probability of getting a
queen of club or king of heart is…
Answer: one card drawn from a pack of 52 cards 𝑛(𝑆) = 52𝐶1 = 52 ways,

A-be the event of getting queen of club or king of heart card 𝑛(𝐴) = 13𝐶1 = 13

13 1
Required probability of getting a queen of club or king of heart is 𝑃(𝐴) = 52 = 4.

10. Two cards are drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. If the first card drawn is
replaced, the probability that they are both kings is…
Answer: A-be the event that king on first draw 𝑛(𝐴) = 4/52 = 1/13.

B- be the event that king on second draw 𝑛(𝐵) = 4/52 = 1/13.

Required probability that they are both kings is, = (1/13) (1/13) = 1/169.

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11. Two cards are drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. If the first card drawn is not
replaced, the probability that they are both kings is...
Answer: A-be the event that king on first draw 𝑛(𝐴) = 4/52 = 1/13.

B- be the event that king on second draw 𝑛(𝐵) = 3/51 = 1/17.

Required probability that they are both kings is, = (1/13) (1/17) = 1/221.

12. If A and B are two events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.4, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.7
and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.2 Then P(B)=?

Answer: We know that 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

0.7 = 0.4 + 𝑃(𝐵) − 0.2

𝑃(𝐵) = 0.7 + 0.2 − 0.4 = 0.5

13. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.4, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.2,
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =?.
Answer: If A and B are two mutually exclusive events then 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0 hence

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.4 + 0.2 − 0 = 0.6

14. A ball is drawn from a box containing 6 red balls, 4 white balls and 5 black balls; the
probability that it is not red is…
Answer: Total number of balls, 6 + 4 + 5 = 15.

A-be the event that red is on first draw hence 𝑃(𝐴) = 6/15.

6 9 3
Required probability that it is not red = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − (15) = (15) = (5).

15. The probability of drawing a white ball from a bag containing 3 black and 4 white balls
is…
Answer: Total number of balls, 3 + 4 = 7.

A-be the event that white is on first draw hence 𝑃(𝐴) = 4/7.

16. The chances to fail in physics are 20% ant the chances to fail in mathematics are 10%.
The chance to fail in at least one subject is…
Answer: let A-be the event that the chances to fail in physics are 20%

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20
i. e 𝑃 (𝐴) = = 0.2. then 𝑃(𝐴̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 0.2 = 0.8
100

let B-be the event that the chances to fail in mathematics are 10%

10
i. e 𝑃 (𝐵) = (100) = 0.1. then 𝑃(𝐵̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − 0.1 = 0.9

𝑅𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ )

𝑅𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴̅ ) 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵̅ ).

𝑅𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 0.2 ∗ 0.1 + 0.8 ∗ 0.1 + 0.2 ∗ 0.9

𝑅𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 0.02 + 0.08 + 0.18

𝑅𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 0.28

𝑅𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 28%

17. Probability that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sunday is…
Answer: Leap year contains 366days, i. e. 52 weeks (52*7=364 days) and 2 extra days

i. e. 52 Sundays. And remaining two extra days could be 1] Sunday, Monday, 2] Monday,
Tuesday 3] Tuesday, Wednesday 4] Wednesday, Thursday 5] Thursday, Friday 6] Friday,
Saturday, 7] Saturday, Sunday.

These are the seven possibilities, out of these, two cases contain extra Sunday.

Required probability= 2/7.

18. Probability that a non-leap year (ordinary year) has 53 Sunday is…
Answer: Ordinary year contains 365days, i. e. 52 weeks (52*7=364 days) and 1 extra day
i. e. 52 Sundays. And remaining one extra day could be 1] Sunday 2] Monday 3]
Tuesday 4] Wednesday 5] Thursday 6] Friday 7] Saturday, these are the seven
possibilities, out of these, one case contains extra Sunday.

Required probability= 1/7.

19. In a throw of three coins, the probability of getting at least two tail is…
Answer: Total number of sample space

𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}, and 𝑛(𝑆) = 8

Event A: at least two tails: {𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}, and 𝑛(𝐴) = 4

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Required probability 𝑃(𝐴) = 4/8 = 1/2.

20. Three coins are tossed simultaneously. The probability of getting at most two head is…
Answer: Total number of sample space

𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}, and 𝑛(𝑆) = 8

Event A: at most two heads: {𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇} and 𝑛(𝐴) = 7

Required probability 𝑃(𝐴) = 7/8.

21. A coin is tossed and a dice is rolled. The probability that the coin shows the head and
dice show 6 is …
Answer: Let A-be the event of coin tossed and 𝑃(𝐴) = 1/2

Let B-be the event of dice shows 6 and 𝑃(𝐵) = 1/6

Here both A and B are independent events hence 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵)

1 1 1
Required probability 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵) = (2) ∗ (6) = 12

22. An envelope contains six tickets with numbers 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7. Another envelope contains
four tickets with numbers 1, 3, 5, 7. An envelope is chosen at random, and ticket is
drawn from it. Probability that the ticket bears the numbers 2 or 7 is…

Answer: Required event can happen in the following mutually exclusive ways.
First envelope is chosen and then ticket is drawn.
Second envelope is chosen and then ticket is drawn. Probability of choosing an
envelope is 1/2.
1 2 1 1 1 1 7
Required probability = 𝑃(1) + 𝑃(2) = 2 ∗ 6 + 2 ∗ 4 = 6 ∗ 8 = 24.

23. A] There are six married couples in a room. If two persons are chosen at random, the
probability that they are of different sex is…
Answer: Six married couples in a room (i. e. 12 persons)
12! 12×11×10!
Two persons chosen at random is 𝑛(𝑆) = 12𝐶2 = 10!×2! = = 66
10!×2

A-they are of different sex (6 male & 6 female) is 𝑛(𝐴) = 6𝐶1 × 6𝐶1 = 6 × 6 = 36
36 6
Required probability = 66
= 11

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B] There are six married couples in a room. If two persons are chosen at random, the
probability that they are married to each other is…

Answer- Six married couples in a room (i. e. 12 persons)

12! 12×11×10!
Two persons chosen at random is 𝑛(𝑆) = 12𝐶2 = 10!×2! = = 66
10!×2

Event A: they are married to each other (6couples): 𝑛(𝐴) = 6𝐶1 = 6

6 1
Required probability 𝑃(𝐴) = 66 = 11.

24. A, B play a game of alternate tossing a coin, one who gets head, first wins the game.
The probability of B winning the game if A has start is…

Answer: In following mutually exclusive run or trails, B wins the game.

𝐴 → 𝑇, 𝐵 → 𝐻 Run TH
𝐴 → 𝑇, 𝐵 → 𝑇, 𝐴 → 𝑇, 𝐵 → 𝐻 Run TTTH
𝐴 → 𝑇, 𝐵 → 𝑇, 𝐴 → 𝑇, 𝐵 → 𝑇, 𝐴 → 𝑇, 𝐵 → 𝐻 Run TTTTTH…
1 1 1
𝑃(𝑇𝐻) = 𝑃(𝑇)𝑃(𝐻) = × = 2
2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1
𝑃(𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻) = 𝑃(𝑇)𝑃(𝑇)𝑃(𝑇)𝑃(𝐻) = × × × = 4
2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
𝑃(𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻) = 𝑃(𝑇)𝑃(𝑇)𝑃(𝑇)𝑃(𝑇)𝑃(𝑇)𝑃(𝐻) = × × × × × = 6
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1
Required probability 𝑃 = 22 + 24 + 26 +∙∙∙

Which is geometric progression (G.P) with common ratio = ¼

1 1
1
Hence probability 𝑃 = 4
3 = 4
1 =3
1−( )
4 4

1 1
25. If A and B are two independent events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 2 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 5 then 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =?.

Answer: If A and B are independent events then 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵)

1 1 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵) = ( ) ∗ ( ) = .
2 5 10
1 1
26. If A and B are two independent events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 2 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 3 then
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =?.
Answer: If A and B are independent events then 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵)
1 1 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵) = ( ) ∗ ( ) =
2 3 6

1 1 1 5 1 4 2
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = + − = − = =
2 3 6 6 6 6 3

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1 1
27. If A and B are two independent events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 2 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 3 then
𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ) =?.
Answer: If A and B are independent events then 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 𝑃(𝐴̅) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵̅ )
1 1 1 2
But 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 2 = 2 and 𝑃(𝐵̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − 3 = 3
1 2 1
Hence 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 𝑃(𝐴̅) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵̅ ) = 2 ∗ 3 = 3

28. A can hit the target 2 out of 5 times, B can hit the target 1 out of 3 times, C can hit the
target 3 out of 4 times. The probability that all of them hit the target is…

2 1 3
Answer: Given that 𝑃(𝐴) = 5 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 3 , 𝑃(𝐶) = 4
2 1 3 1
Required probability 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐶) = 5 ∗ 3 ∗ 4 = 10 .

29. A can hit the target 3 out of 5 times, B can hit the target 1 out of 3 times. The
probability that no one can hit the target is…

3 3 2
Answer: Given that 𝑃(𝐴) = 5 and 𝑃(𝐴̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 5 = 5
1 1 2
𝑃(𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐵̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − =
3 3 3
2 2 4
Required probability 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 𝑃(𝐴̅)𝑃(𝐵̅ ) = 5 ∗ 3 = 15

30. A problem in statistics is given to three students A, B, C whose chance of solving it are
1 1 1
, , resp. The probability that all of them can solve the problem is…
2 3 4
1 1 1
Answer- Let 𝑃(𝐴) = 2 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 3 , 𝑃(𝐶) = 4
1 1 1 1
Required probability 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐶) = 2 ∗ 3 ∗ 4 = 24

2 3
31. The probability that A can solve the problem is 3 and B can solve it is 4 . If both attempt

the problem, then the probability that the problem gets solved is…
2 3 2 1
Answer - Let 𝑃(𝐴) = 3 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 4 and 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 3 = 3
3 1
𝑃(𝐵̅ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − =
4 4
Required probability = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ ) + 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵̅ ) + 𝑃(𝐴̅)𝑃(𝐵)
2 3 2 1 1 3 11
= ∗ + ∗ + ∗ = .
3 4 3 4 3 4 12

Amol Jadhav 9
Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

1 1 1
32. If A and B are any two events with 𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = then
2 3 4

𝑃(𝐴/𝐵)?.
1
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 1 3 3
Answer: 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = = 4
1 =4∗1=4
𝑃(𝐵)
3

1 1 1
33. If A and B are any two events with 𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = 3 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 2 then
4

𝑃(𝐴/𝐵)?.
Answer: use 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
1 1 1 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = + − =
4 3 2 12
1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 12 1 3 1
𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = = = ∗ = .
𝑃(𝐵) 1 12 1 4
3
34. If A and B are any two events with 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.25, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.15 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.3 then
𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) =?.
Answer: Use 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.25 + 0.15 − 0.3 = 0.1
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.1
∴ 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = = 0.15 = 0.666 ~ 0.6.
𝑃(𝐵)

35. In a class 40% students read statistics, 25% read mathematics and 15% read both
statistics and mathematics. One student is selected at random. The probability that he
read statistics if it is know that he read mathematics is…
40
Answer: Let A-be the event that students read statistics ∴ 𝑃(𝐴) = 100 = 0.40
25
B- be the event that students read Mathematics ∴ 𝑃(𝐵) = 100 = 0.25
15
both read statistics and mathematics ∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 100 = 0.15
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.15 3
Here find 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) use ∴ 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = = 0.25 = 5 = 0.6.
𝑃(𝐵)

2. Binomial Probability Distributions

Consider the experiment or a trial which has only two outcomes, a success or failure with p
as the probability of success and q as the probability of failure, and 𝑝 + 𝑞 = 1.
𝑛!
𝐵(𝑛, 𝑝, 𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟 = 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! ∙ 𝑟!
If r=0, 𝑃(0) = 𝑛𝐶0 𝑝0 𝑞 𝑛−0 = 1 𝑞 𝑛 = 𝑞 𝑛 = (1 − 𝑝)𝑛
If r=1, 𝑃(1) = 𝑛𝐶1 𝑝1 𝑞 𝑛−1 = 𝑛𝐶1 𝑝1 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−1
If r=2, 𝑃(2) = 𝑛𝐶2 𝑝2 𝑞 𝑛−2 = 𝑛𝐶2 𝑝2 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−2

Amol Jadhav 10
Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

Examples:
1. An unbiased coin is tossed 10 times. Find the probability of getting exactly 6 heads, at
least 6 heads.
1 1 1
Solution: Let 𝑛 = 10 and probability of head is 𝑝 = 2 and 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 1 − 2 = 2

Use Binomial Probability distribution 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟

(i) The probability of getting exactly 6 heads is = 𝑃(6)
1 6 1 10−6
∴ 𝑃(6) = 10𝐶6 (2) (2) = 0.205078.

(ii) The probability of getting at least 6 heads is 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 6)

∴ 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 6) = 𝑃(6) + 𝑃(7) + 𝑃(8) + 𝑃(9) + 𝑃(10)
1 6 1 10−6 1 7 1 10−7 1 8 1 10−8
∴ 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 6) = 10𝐶6 (2) (2) + 10𝐶7 (2) (2) + 10𝐶8 (2) (2) +

1 9 1 10−9 1 10 1 10−10
10𝐶9 (2) (2) + 10𝐶10 (2) (2)

∴ 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 6) = 0.205078 + 0.117188 + 0.43945 + 0.009766 + 0.000977

∴ 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 6) = 0.376953.
2. Probability of Man aged 60 years will live for 70 years is 1/10. Find the probability of 5
men selected at random 2 will live for 70 years.
1 1 9
Solution: Let 𝑛 = 5 and probability 𝑝 = 10 and ∴ 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 1 − 10 = 10

Use Binomial Probability distribution 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟

The probability of 2 men will live for 70 years is = 𝑃(2)
1 2 9 5−2
∴ 𝑃(2) = 5𝐶2 (10) (10) = 0.00729.

3. 20% bolts are produced by machine are defective. Find the probability that out of three
bolts are chosen at random 1 is defective.
20
Solution: Let 𝑛 = 3 and probability 𝑝 = 20% = 100 = 0.2 and ∴ 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 0.8

Use Binomial Probability distribution 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟

The probability of 1defective bolt is = 𝑃(1)
∴ 𝑃(1) = 3𝐶1 (0.2)1 (0.8)2 = 0.384.
4. The probability that hit a target in shooting practice is 0.3. If the shoots 10 times, find
the probability that he hits the target.
Solution: Let 𝑛 = 10 and probability 𝑝 = 0.3 and ∴ 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 0.7
Use Binomial Probability distribution 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟
Hit the target at 𝑟 = 1, 2, … 10
Hence not hit the target at 𝑟 = 0

Amol Jadhav 11
Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

Hence the probability that he hits the target is = 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1)

∴ 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(0)
∴ 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 10𝐶0 (0.3)0 (0.7)10−0
∴ 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 0.028248 = 0.971752.
5. A box contains 100 bulbs out of which 10 are defective. A sample of 5 bulbs is drawn.
Find the probability that none is defective.
10
Solution: Let 𝑛 = 5 and probability 𝑝 = 100 = 0.1 and ∴ 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 0.9

Use Binomial Probability distribution 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟

Hence the probability that no defective bulb is = 𝑃(0)
∴ 𝑃(0) = 10𝐶0 (0.1)0 (0.9)10−0 = 0.348678.
6. Out of 2000 families with 4 children each, find the number of families you would expect
to have (i) at least one boy. (ii) two boys. (iii) no girl.
1
Solution: Let 𝑛 = 4, probability of boy 𝑝 = 2 = 0.5 and probability of girl 𝑞 = 0.5

At least one boy (𝑟 = 1, 2, 3, 4)

Two boys (𝑟 = 2)
One or two girls (𝑟 = 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟 = 2)
No girl (𝑟 = 0)
Use Binomial Probability distribution 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟
(i) The probability that at least one boy is 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 𝑃(1) + 𝑃(2) + 𝑃(3) + 𝑃(4) or
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(0)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 4𝐶0 (0.5)0 (0.5)4−0
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 0.9375.
So, the number of families you would expect to have at least one boy is
= 2000 × 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1)
= 2000 × 0.9375 = 1875
(ii) The probability of two boys is 𝑃(2) = 4𝐶2 (0.5)2 (0.5)4−2 = 4𝐶2 (0.5)4
𝑃(2) = 0.75.
So, the number of families you would expect to have two boys is = 2000 × 𝑃(2)
= 2000 × 0.75 = 1500
(iii) The probability of no girls is 𝑃(0)
𝑃(0) = 4𝐶0 (0.5)0 (0.5)4−0 = 0.0625
So, the number of families you would expect to have no girl is = 2000 × 𝑃(0)
= 2000 × 0.0625 = 125.

Amol Jadhav 12
Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

7. The mean and variance of Binomial probability distribution are 6 and 2 resp. Find
𝑝(𝑟 ⩾ 2).
Solution: Given that Mean=6, and Variance=2 but we know that 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 = 𝑛𝑝
𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 hence 6 = 𝑛𝑝, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
1 2
After solving 2 = 6𝑞 → 𝑞 = 3 and consider 𝑝 + 𝑞 = 1 → 𝑝 = 1 − 𝑞 = 3
2
Now 6 = 𝑛𝑝 → 6 = 𝑛 3 → 𝑛 = 9 and 𝑟 = 0,1, ⋯ 9.

Hence 𝑃(𝑟 ⩾ 2) = 𝑃(2) + 𝑃(3) + ⋯ + 𝑃(9) or

𝑃(𝑟 ⩾ 2) = 1 − [𝑃(0) + 𝑃(1)]

9 2 0 1 9 9 2 1 1 9−1
𝑃(𝑟 ⩾ 2) = 1 − [ 𝐶0 ( ) ( ) + 𝐶1 ( ) ( ) ]
3 3 3 3
𝑃(𝑟 ⩾ 2) = 1 − [0.0000508053 + 0.000914495]
𝑃(𝑟 ⩾ 2) = 1 − [0.0009653]
𝑃(𝑟 ⩾ 2) = 0.9990347
8. An insurance agent accepts policies of 5 men of identical age and in good health. The
probability that a man of this age will live 30 years hence is 2/3. Find the probability
that in 30 years (i) all five men and (ii) at least one man will be alive.
Solution: Let X be the number of men of identical age and in good health those will live
2
30 years hence among those 5. i.e. 𝑋~𝐵 (𝑛 = 5, 𝑝 = 3)

2 𝑟 1 5−𝑟
The probability mass function of X is given by 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟) = 5𝐶𝑟 (3) (3)

where 𝑟 = 0,1, ⋯ 5
(i) The probability that all five men will be live 30 years hence is 𝑃(𝑋 = 5) = 𝑃(5)

5 2 5 1 0
𝑃(5) = 𝐶5 ( ) ( ) = 0.1317
3 3
(ii) The probability that at least one man will be live 30 years hence is 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0)

52 0 1 5
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝐶0 ) ( )
(
3 3
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 0.0041
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 0.9959.
9. On an average, a box containing 10 articles is likely to have 2 defectives. If we consider
a consignment of 100 boxes,
(i)how many of them are expected to have at the most one defective?

Amol Jadhav 13
Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

(ii) how many of them are expected to have three or less defective?
Solution: Let X be the number of defective articles in a box containing 10 articles.
2
And (𝑛 = 10, 𝑝 = 10 = 0.2)
10
The probability mass function of X is given by 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟) = 𝐶𝑟 (0.2)𝑟 (0.8)10−𝑟 ,
Where 𝑟 = 0,1, ⋯ ,10
(i)The probability that a box containing 10 articles has at the most one defective is
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 1)
10
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1) = 𝐶0 (0.2)0 (0.8)10 + 10𝐶1 (0.2)1 (0.8)9
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1) = 0.1074 + 0.2684
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1) = 0.3758
So, the expected number of boxes from a consignment having at the most one defective
box is = 100 × 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 1) = 100 × 0.3758 = 37.58 ≈ 38.
(ii)The probability that a box containing 10 articles has at three or less defective is
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 2) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 3)
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = 10𝐶0 (0.2)0 (0.8)10 + 10𝐶1 (0.2)1 (0.8)9 + 10𝐶2 (0.2)2 (0.8)8
+ 10𝐶3 (0.2)3 (0.8)7
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = 0.1074 + 0.2684 + 0.30199 + 0.201327
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = 0.879117
So, the expected number of boxes from a consignment having at three or less defective
boxes is = 100 × 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = 100 × 0.879117 = 87.91 ≈ 88.
10. On an average 20% of the workers in an industry suffer with a certain disease. If 12
workers are chosen from the industry, find the probability that (i) Exactly 2 workers
suffer from the disease, (ii) At least one worker suffers from the disease.
Solution: Let X be the number of workers who suffer with the certain disease out of 12
chosen from the industry. And (𝑛 = 12, 𝑝 = 0.2)
The probability mass function of X is given by
12
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟) = 𝐶𝑟 (0.2)𝑟 (0.8)12−𝑟 ; 𝑟 = 0,1, ⋯ ,12
(i) The probability that exactly 2 workers suffer from the disease is 𝑃(𝑋 = 2)
12
𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = 𝐶2 (0.2)2 (0.8)10 = 0.2835
(ii) The probability that at least 1 worker suffers from the disease is 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 0.0687
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 0.9313.

Amol Jadhav 14
Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

11. A series of five one day matches is to be played between India and Pakistan. Assuming
that the probability of India’s win in each match as 0.6 and results of all the five
matches independent of each other, find the probability that (i) India wins at least one
match, (ii) India wins the series.
Solution: Let X be the number of matches out of 5 those will be won by India. and
(𝑛 = 5, 𝑝 = 0.6)
The probability mass function of X is given by 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟) = 5𝐶𝑟 (0.6)𝑟 (0.4)5−𝑟 ;
Where 𝑟 = 0,1,2,3,4,5.
(i) The probability that India wins at least one match is = 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 5𝐶0 (0.6)0 (0.4)5
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 0.01024
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 0.98976.
(ii) The probability that India wins the series is 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 3)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 3) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 3) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 5)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 3) = 5𝐶3 (0.6)3 (0.4)2 + 5𝐶4 (0.6)4 (0.4)1 + 5𝐶5 (0.6)5 (0.4)0
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 3) = 0.3456 + 0.2592 + 0.0778
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 3) = 0.6826.

3. Poisson Probability Distribution

A discrete random variable X is said to follow a Poisson distribution with parameter z if its
probability mass function is given by,
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 𝑟
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟) = : 𝑧 > 0, 𝑟 = 0,1, ⋯
𝑟!
Notation: 𝑋~𝑃(𝑧)
Where 𝑧-Arithmetic Mean/Average 𝑂𝑅 𝑧 = 𝑛𝑝
Also 𝑛 -number of trials is very large, p-probability of success at each trial.
Variance 𝑣 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 and Standard Deviation 𝜎 = √𝑣 = √𝑛𝑝𝑞
Examples:
1. In a certain factory turning out razor blades, there is a small chance of 1/500 for any
blade to be defective. The blades are supplied in a packet of 10. Use Poisson
distribution to calculate number of packets containing no defective and two defective
blades, in a consignment of 10000 packets.

Amol Jadhav 15
Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

1
Solution: Let 𝑛 = 1000, probability of defective blades is 𝑝 = and
500
1
mean 𝑧 = 𝑛𝑝 = 10 ∗ 500 = 0.02
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 𝑟
Use Poisson Probability Distribution: 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑟!

(i) The probability of no defective blade is = 𝑃(0)

𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 0
𝑃(0) = = 𝑒 −𝑧 = 𝑒 −0.02 = 0.980199
0!
So, the number of packets containing no defective blades, in a consignment of 10000
packets is = 10000 × 𝑃(0) = 10000 × 𝑒 −0.02 = 9801.99 ≈ 9802.
(ii) The probability of two defective blade is 𝑃(2)
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 2 𝑒 −0.02 0.022
𝑃(2) = = = 0.000196
2! 2

So, the number of packets containing two defective blades, in a consignment of 10000
packets is = 10000 × 𝑃(2) = 1.960397 ≈ 2.
2. The average number of misprints per page of a book is 1.5. Assuming the distribution
of number of misprints to be Poisson. Find (i) the prob that a particular book is free
from misprints. (ii) Number of pages containing more than one misprint if the book
contains 900 pages.
Solution: Given that, mean 𝑧 = 1.5
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 𝑟
Use Poisson Probability Distribution: 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑟!

(i) The probability that a particular book is free from misprints is = 𝑃(0)
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 0
𝑃(0) = = 𝑒 −𝑧 = 𝑒 −1.5 = 0.22313
0!
(ii) A particular book containing more than one misprint at 𝑟 = 2, 3, 4, … and
hence the probability is = 𝑃(𝑋 > 1) = 𝑃(2) + 𝑃(3) + 𝑃(4) + ⋯ OR
𝑃(𝑋 > 1) = 1 − [𝑃(0) + 𝑃(1)]
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 0 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧1
𝑃(𝑋 > 1) = 1 − [ + ]
0! 1!
𝑃(𝑋 > 1) = 1 − [𝑒 −𝑧 + 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧]
𝑃(𝑋 > 1) = 1 − 𝑒 −𝑧 [1 + 𝑧]
𝑃(𝑋 > 1) = 1 − 𝑒 −1.5 [1 + 1.5]
𝑃(𝑋 > 1) = 1 − 2.5𝑒 −1.5 = 1 − 0.557825 = 0.442175
So, the number of pages containing more than one misprint if the book contains 900
pages is = 900 × 𝑃(𝑋 > 1) = 900 × 0.442175 = 397.95 ≈ 398.

Amol Jadhav 16
Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

3. Number of road accidents on a highway during a month follows a Poisson distribution

with mean 5. Find the probability that in a certain month number of accidents on the
highway will be (i) less than 3. (ii) Between 3 & 5. (iii) more than 3.
Solution: Given that, mean 𝑧 = 5
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 𝑟
Use Poisson Probability Distribution: 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑟!

(i) The probability that in a certain month number of accidents on the highway will be
less than three is = 𝑃(𝑋 < 3)
𝑃(𝑋 < 3) = 𝑃(0) + 𝑃(1) + 𝑃(2)
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 0 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧1 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 2
𝑃(𝑋 < 3) = + +
0! 1! 2!
𝑒 −5 50 𝑒 −5 51 𝑒 −5 52
𝑃(𝑋 < 3) = + +
0! 1! 2!
𝑃(𝑋 < 3) = 0.006378 + 0.03369 + 0.084224 = 0.124652.
(ii) The probability that in a certain month number of accidents on the highway will be
between three and five is = 𝑃(3 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 5) = 𝑃(3) + 𝑃(4) + 𝑃(5)
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 3 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 4 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 5
𝑃(3 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 5) = + +
3! 4! 5!
𝑒 −5 53 𝑒 −5 54 𝑒 −5 55
𝑃(3 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 5) = + + = 0.140374 + 0.175467 + 0.175467
6 24 120
𝑃(3 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 5) = 0.491309
(iii) The probability that in a certain month number of accidents on the highway will be
more than three is = 𝑃(𝑋 > 3) = 𝑃(4) + 𝑃(5) + ⋯ OR
𝑃(𝑋 > 3) = 1 − [𝑃(0) + 𝑃(1) + 𝑃(2) + 𝑃(3)]
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 0 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧1 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 2 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 3
𝑃(𝑋 > 3) = 1 − [ + + + ]
0! 1! 2! 3!
𝑒 −5 50 𝑒 −5 51 𝑒 −5 52 𝑒 −5 53
𝑃(𝑋 > 3) = 1 − [ + + + ]
1 1 2 6
𝑃(𝑋 > 3) = 1 − [0.006378 + 0.03369 + 0.084224 + 0.140374]
𝑃(𝑋 > 3) = 1 − 0.265026 = 0.734974.
4. A manufacturer of cotter pins knows that 2% of his product is defective. If he sells cotter
pins in boxes of 100 pins and guarantees that not more than 5 pins will be defective in
a box, find the app probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality.
2
Solution: Let 𝑛 = 100, probability of defective cotter pins is 𝑝 = 2% = 100 and
2
mean 𝑧 = 𝑛𝑝 = 100 ∗ 100 = 2

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𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 𝑟
Use Poisson Probability Distribution: 𝑃(𝑟) =
𝑟!

Guarantee: not more than 5 pins will be defective in a box, i.e. 𝑟 = 0,1,2,3,4,5
Guarantee Fail: more than 5 pins will be defective in a box, i.e. 𝑟 = 6,7,8, …
Hence the probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality is =
𝑃(𝑋 > 5) = 𝑃(6) + 𝑃(7) + 𝑃(8) + ⋯ OR
𝑃(𝑋 > 5) = 1 − [𝑃(0) + 𝑃(1) + 𝑃(2) + 𝑃(3) + 𝑃(4) + 𝑃(5)]
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 0 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧1 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 2 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 3 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 4 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 5
𝑃(𝑋 > 5) = 1 − [ + + + + + ]
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5!
𝑒 −2 20 𝑒 −2 21 𝑒 −2 22 𝑒 −2 23 𝑒 −2 24 𝑒 −2 25
𝑃(𝑋 > 5) = 1 − [ + + + + + ]
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5!
𝑃(𝑋 > 5) = 1 − [0.13533 + 0.2706 + 0.2706 + 0.18044 + 0.09022 + 0.03608]
𝑃(𝑋 > 5) = 1 − [0.983436]
𝑃(𝑋 > 5) = 0.016564.
5. Between 2 pm and 3 pm, the average numbers of phone calls per minute coming into
the company are 2. Find the probability that during one particular minute, there will be
[i] no phone call at all. [ii] 2 or less calls.
Solution: Given that, mean 𝑧 = 2,
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 𝑟
Use Poisson Probability Distribution: 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑟!

(i) The probability that during one particular minute, there will be no phone call is
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 0
𝑃(0) = = 𝑒 −2 = 0.135335
0!
(ii) The probability that during one particular minute, there will be 2 or less calls is
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 0 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧1 𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 2
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2) = 𝑃(0) + 𝑃(1) + 𝑃(2) = + +
0! 1! 2!
𝑒 −𝑧 20 𝑒 −𝑧 21 𝑒 −𝑧 22
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2) = + + = 0.135335 + 0.270671 + 0.270671
0! 1! 2!
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2) = 0.676676.
6. If the probability that a concrete cube fails is 0.001. Determine the probability that out of
1000 cubes: [i] Exactly two [ii] More than one cube will fail.
Solution: Let 𝑛 = 1000, probability of failed concrete cubes is 𝑝 = 0.001 and
mean 𝑧 = 𝑛𝑝 = 1000 ∗ 0.001 = 1
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 𝑟
Use Poisson Probability Distribution: 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑟!

(i) The probability that out of 1000 cubes, exactly two cubes will fail is 𝑃(2)

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Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 2 𝑒 −1 12
𝑃(2) = = = 0.18394.
2! 2
(ii) The probability that out of 1000 cubes, more than one cube will fail is 𝑃(𝑋 > 1)
OR 𝑃(𝑋 > 1) = 1 − 𝑃(0)
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 0
𝑃(𝑋 > 1) = 1 − = 1 − 𝑒 −1 = 1 − 0.367879 = 0.632121.
0!

7. There is a small probability of 1/1,000 for any computer produced to be defective.

Determine in a sample of 2,000 computers, the probability that there (i) is no defective
and (ii) are two defectives.
1 1
Solution: Let 𝑛 = 2000, 𝑝 = 1000 ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 mean is 𝑧 = 𝑛𝑝 = 2000 × 1000 = 2
𝑒 −𝑧 𝑧 𝑟
Use Poisson Probability Distribution: 𝑃(𝑟) = 𝑟!

(i) The probability that there is no defective computer is 𝑃(0)

𝑒 −2 20
𝑃(0) = = 𝑒 −2 = 0.1353.
0!

(ii) The probability that there are two defective computers is 𝑃(2)
𝑒 −2 22
𝑃(2) = = 0.2706.
2!

4. Normal Probability Distribution

A continuous random variable X is said to follow a Normal (Gaussian) distribution if its

probability density function is given by,
1 𝑥−𝜇 2
1
𝑒 −2 ( )
𝑦 = 𝑓(𝑥) = 𝜎 with −∞ < 𝑥 < ∞, −∞ < 𝜇 < ∞, 𝜎 > 0
√2𝜋𝜎

Notation: 𝑋~𝑁(𝜇, 𝜎 2 )
Properties:
• 𝑓(𝑥) ≥ 0, ∀ 𝑥 ∈ 𝑅
∞
• ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = 1
• If 𝑋~𝑁(𝜇, 𝜎 2 ), then Mean = 𝜇 and Variance = 𝜎 2 .
• The probability density curve of a normal distribution is bell-shaped, perfectly
symmetric about the values X = 𝜇.
• Mean = Median = Mode = 𝜇.
𝑥−𝜇
• If 𝑋~𝑁(𝜇, 𝜎 2 ), then 𝑍 = ~𝑁(0,1).
𝜎

Area of Standard Normal Distribution:

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Examples:
8. In a sample of 1000 candidates, the mean of certain test is 14 and standard deviation
is 2.5. Assuming Normal distribution, find the number of candidates getting less than
eight marks. [Given that z=2.4, A = 0.4918].
Solution: Let Mean 𝜇 = 14, Standard deviation
𝜎 = 2.5, and 𝑥 = 8
𝑥 − 𝜇 8 − 14
𝑆𝑜, 𝑧 = = = −2.4
𝜎 2.5
The probability that candidates getting less than
eight marks= 𝑃(𝑋 < 8)
𝑥 − 14 8 − 14
= 𝑃( < )
2.5 2.5
= 𝑃(𝑧 < −2.4)
= 0.5 − 0.4918 = 0.0082
So, the expected number of candidates getting less than 8 marks out of 1,000
candidates = 1000𝑃(𝑋 < 8)
= 1000 ∗ 0.0082

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Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

= 8.2 ≈ 8.
9. In a normally distributed group of 450 students with mean 42 and standard deviation
8, find the number of students scoring less than 48 marks.
[Given that z= 0.75, A = 0.2734].
Solution: Let Mean 𝜇 = 42, Standard deviation 𝜎 = 8, and 𝑥 = 48
𝑥 − 𝜇 48 − 42
𝑆𝑜, 𝑧 = = = 0.75
𝜎 8
The probability of students scoring less than 48 marks,
= 𝑃(𝑋 < 48)
𝑥 − 42 48 − 42
= 𝑃( < )
8 8
= 𝑃(𝑧 < 0.75)
= 0.5 + 0.2734 = 0.7734
So, the expected number of students
scoring less than 48 marks out of 450 students
= 450 𝑃(𝑋 < 48)
= 450 × 0.7734 = 348.03 ≈ 348.
10. In a certain examination test 10000 students appeared in a paper of mathematics.
Average marks obtained were 50% with Standard Deviation 5%. Marks are normally
distributed. Find the number of students expected to get more than 60% marks. [Given
that z=2, A=0.4772].
Solution: Let Mean 𝜇 = 50%, Standard deviation
𝜎 = 5%, and 𝑥 = 60%
𝑥 − 𝜇 60 − 50
𝑆𝑜, 𝑧 = = =2
𝜎 5
The probability of students expected to get more
than 60% marks= 𝑃(𝑋 > 60)
𝑥 − 50 60 − 50
= 𝑃( > )
5 5
= 𝑃(𝑧 > 2)
= 0.5 − 0.4772 = 0.0228
So, the expected number of students to get more than 60% marks out of 10000
students.
= 10000 𝑃(𝑋 > 60)
= 10000 × 0.0228

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Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

= 228.
11. 5000 candidates appeared in a certain paper carrying a maximum of 100 marks. It was
found that marks were normally distributed with mean 39.5 and standard deviation
12.5. Determine the number of candidates who secured a first class for which a
minimum of 60 marks is necessary. [Given that z= 1.64, A=0.4495].
Solution: Let Mean 𝜇 = 39.5, Standard deviation 𝜎 = 12.5, and 𝑥 = 60
𝑥 − 𝜇 60 − 39.5
𝑆𝑜, 𝑧 = = =2
𝜎 12.5
The probability of candidates who secured
a first class for
which a minimum of 60 marks is
necessary= 𝑃(𝑋 > 60)
𝑥 − 39.5 60 − 39.5
= 𝑃( > )
12.5 12.5
= 𝑃(𝑧 > 1.64)
= 0.5 − 0.4495 = 0.0505
So, the expected number of candidates
who secured a first class for which a minimum of 60 marks are necessary=
5000 𝑃(𝑋 > 60)
= 5000 × 0.0505
= 252.5 ≈ 253.
12. A random sample of 200 screws is drawn from a population which represents the size
of screws. If a sample is distributed normally with mean 3.15 cm and standard
deviation 0.025 cm, find expected number of screws whose size falls between 3.12 cm
and 3.2 cm. [Given that z=1.2, A=0.3849 and z=2, A=0.4772].
Solution: Let Mean 𝜇 = 3.15, Standard deviation 𝜎 = 0.025, and
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝑥1 = 3.12 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑥2 = 3.2
𝑥1 − 𝜇 3.12 − 3.15
𝑆𝑜, 𝑧1 = = = −1.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝜎 0.025
𝑥2 − 𝜇 3.2 − 3.15
𝑧2 = = =2
𝜎 0.025
The probability of screws whose size falls
between 3.12 and 3.2 cm is
= 𝑃(3.12 < 𝑋 < 3.2)

Amol Jadhav 22
Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

3.12 − 3.15 𝑥 − 3.15 3.2 − 3.15

= 𝑃( < < )
0.025 0.025 0.025
= 𝑃(−1.2 < 𝑧 < 2)
= 0.3849 + 0.4772 = 0.8621
So, the expected number of screws whose size falls
between 3.12 cm and 3.2 cm
= 200 𝑃(3.12 < 𝑋 < 3.2)
= 200 × 0.8621
= 172.42 ≈ 172.
13. The mean weight of 500 students is 63kg and standard deviation is 8kg. Assuming that
the weights are normally distributed, find how many students weigh 52kg? The weights
are recorded to the nearest kg. [Given that, 𝑧 = 1.44, 𝐴 = 0.4251 and for 𝑧 = 1.31, 𝐴 =
0.4049].
Solution: Let Mean 𝜇 = 63, Standard
deviation 𝜎 = 8, and
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝑥1 = 51.5 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑥2 = 52.5 (nearest 5kg
weight)
𝑥1 − 𝜇 51.5 − 63
𝑧1 = = = −1.44 𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝜎 8
𝑥2 − 𝜇 52.5 − 63
𝑧2 = = = −1.31
𝜎 8
Required probability is = 𝑃(51.5 < 𝑋 < 52.5)
51.5 − 63 𝑥 − 63 52.5 − 63
= 𝑃( < < )
8 8 8
= 𝑃(−1.44 < 𝑧 < −1.31)
= 0.4251 − 0.4049 = 0.0202
So, the expected number of students weigh 52kg = 500 𝑃(51.5 < 𝑋 < 52.5)
= 500 × 0.0202
= 10.1 ≈ 10.
14. Assuming that, the diameter of 1000 brass plugs taken consecutively from machine
form a normal distribution with mean 0.7515 cm and standard deviation 0.002 cm.
How many of the plugs are likely to be appeared if the acceptable diameter is 0.752 ±
0.004. [Given that, z= 2.25, A= 0.4878 and z=1.75, A=0.4599].

Amol Jadhav 23
Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

Solution: Let Mean 𝜇 = 0.7515, Standard

deviation 𝜎 = 0.002, and
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝑥1 = 0.752 + 0.004 = 0.756 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑥2
= 0.752 − 0.004 = 0.748
𝑥1 − 𝜇 0.756 − 0.7515
𝑧1 = = = 2.25 𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝜎 0.002
𝑥2 − 𝜇 0.748 − 0.7515
𝑧2 = = = −1.75
𝜎 0.002
Required probability is
𝑃 = 𝑃(0.748 < 𝑋 < 0.756)
0.748 − 0.7515 𝑥 − 0.7515 0.756 − 0.7515
= 𝑃( < < )
0.002 0.002 0.002
= 𝑃(−1.75 < 𝑧 < 2.25)
= 0.4878 + 0.4599 = 0.9477
So, the expected number of the plugs are likely to be appeared if the acceptable
diameter is 0.752 ± 0.004. = 1000 𝑃(0.748 < 𝑋 < 0.756)
= 1000 × 0.9477
= 947.7 ≈ 948.
15. Suppose heights of student’s follows normal distribution with mean 190cm and
variance 80 cm. In a school of 1000 students how many would you expect to be above
200 a tall? [Given that z= 1.118, A=0.3686].
Solution: Let Mean 𝜇 = 190, Variance 𝑣 = 80, & Standard deviation 𝜎 = √𝑣 = √80
and 𝑥 = 200
𝑥 − 𝜇 200 − 190
𝑆𝑜, 𝑧 = = = 1.118
𝜎 √80
The probability of students expects to be
above 200cm a tall is = 𝑃(𝑋 > 200)
𝑥 − 190 200 − 190
= 𝑃( > )
√80 √80
= 𝑃(𝑧 > 1.118)
= 0.5 − 0.3686 = 0.1314
So, the expected number of students to be above 200cm a tall = 1000 𝑃(𝑋 > 200)
= 1000 × 0.1314
= 131.4 ≈ 131.

Amol Jadhav 24
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16. The lifetime of an article has a normal distribution with mean 400 hours and standard
deviation 50 hours. Assuming normal distribution, find the expected number of articles
out of 2000 whose lifetime lies between 335 hours to 465 hours? [Given: z=1.3, A=0.4032]
Solution: Let Mean 𝜇 = 400, Standard deviation 𝜎 = 50, and
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝑥1 = 335 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑥2 = 465
𝑥1 − 𝜇 335 − 400
𝑧1 = = = −1.3 𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝜎 50
𝑥2 − 𝜇 465 − 400
𝑧2 = = = 1.3
𝜎 50
The probability of expected number of
articles whose lifetime lies between 335
hours to 465 hours is = 𝑃(335 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 465)
335 − 400 465 − 400
= 𝑃( ≤𝑥≤ )
50 50
= 𝑃(−1.3 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 1.3)
= 0.4032 + 0.4032 = 0.8064
So, the expected number of articles out of 2000, whose lifetime lies between 335 hours
to 465 hours= 1,000𝑃(−1.3 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 1.3)
= 200 × 0.8064
= 1612.8 ≈ 1613.
17. The lifetime of a certain component has a normal distribution with mean 400 hours
and standard deviation 50 hours. Assuming normal distribution, determine
approximately the expected number of components in a sample of 1,000 components
whose lifetime lies between 340 hours to 465 hours? [Given: z1=1.2, A1=0.3849; z2=1.3,
A2=0.4032]
Solution: Let Mean 𝜇 = 400, Standard deviation 𝜎 = 50, and
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝑥1 = 340 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑥2 = 465
𝑥1 − 𝜇 340 − 400
𝑧1 = = = −1.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝜎 50
𝑥2 − 𝜇 465 − 400
𝑧2 = = = 1.3
𝜎 50
The probability of expected number of articles
whose lifetime lies between 335 hours to 465
hours is = 𝑃(340 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 465)
340 − 400 465 − 400
= 𝑃( ≤𝑥≤ )
50 50

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Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

= 𝑃(−1.2 ≤ 𝑧 ≤ 1.3)
= 0.3849 + 0.4032 = 0.7881
So, the expected number of articles out of 1000, whose lifetime lies between 340 hrs to
465 hours= 1,000 𝑃(−1.2 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 1.3) = 1000 × 0.7881
= 788.1 ≈ 788.
18. In a sample of 1,000 cases, the mean of a certain examination is 14 and standard
deviation 2.5. Assuming the distribution to be normal, find the number of students
scoring between 12 and 15. [Given: z1=0.4, A1=0.1554; z2=0.8, A2=0.2881]
Solution: Let Mean 𝜇 = 14, Standard deviation 𝜎 = 2.5, and
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝑥1 = 12 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑥2 = 15
𝑥1 − 𝜇 12 − 14 𝑥2 − 𝜇 15 − 14
𝑧1 = = = −0.8 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑧2 = = = 0.4
𝜎 2.5 𝜎 2.5
The probability that a student scoring
between 12 and 15 is = 𝑃(12 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 15)
12 − 14 𝑋 − 14 15 − 14
= 𝑃( ≤ ≤ )
2.5 2.5 2.5
= 𝑃(−0.8 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 0.4)
= 0.2881 + 0.1554 = 0.4435
So, the expected number of students out of
1,000 scoring marks between 12 and 15
= 1,000 𝑃(12 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 15)
= 443.5 ≈ 444.

5. Probability Distribution

Examples:
1. A coin is tossed which results in head or tail. Let X is the random variable whose value
for any outcome is the number of heads obtained. Find the probability function of X
and construct a probability distribution table.
Answer: Let H-head, T-tail then sample space is, 𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇}, Total numbers=2.
𝑋(𝐻) = 1, 𝑋(𝑇) = 1 and x is the number of heads which takes the value 0 and 1.
∴ 𝑃(𝑥 = 0) = 1/2 and 𝑃(𝑥 = 1) = 1/2
Probability distribution table is:
x 0 1
𝑃(𝑥) 1/2 1/2

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Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

2. A coin is tossed two times successively. Let X is the random variable whose value for
any outcome is the number of heads obtained. Find the probability function of X and
construct a probability distribution table.
Answer: All possible outcomes are 22 = 4, and sample space is, 𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻}
x is number of heads which takes the value 0, 1, 2.
𝑋(𝑥 = 0) = 1, 𝑋(𝑥 = 1) = 2, 𝑋(𝑥 = 2) = 1
1
𝑖. No head ⇒ 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 𝑃(𝑇𝑇) =
4
2
𝑖𝑖. One head ⇒ 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 𝑃(𝐻𝑇) + 𝑝(𝑇𝐻) =
4
1
𝑖𝑖𝑖. Two head ⇒ 𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = 𝑃(𝐻𝐻) =
4
Probability distribution table is
𝑥 0 1 2
𝑃(𝑥) 1/4 2/4 1/4
3. For an experiment of simultaneous throw with three coins. The results of three tosses
are independent of each other. Find the probability function and distribution table.
Answer: All possible outcomes are 23 = 8, and sample space is,
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇 𝑇𝑇, 𝐻 𝐻𝑇, 𝐻 𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻}.
Let x denotes the number of heads appearing in each case.
i. Probability of No head ⇒ 𝑃(𝑥 = 0) = 1/8.
ii. Probability of 1 head ⇒ 𝑃(𝑥 = 1) = 3/8.
iii. Probability of 2 heads ⇒ 𝑃(𝑥 = 2) = 3/8.
iv. Probability of 3 heads ⇒ 𝑃(𝑥 = 3) = 1/8
Probability distribution table is
𝑥 0 1 2 3
𝑓(𝑥) 1 3 3 1
1 3 3 1
𝑃(𝑥)
8 8 8 8

4. The outcomes of a certain experiment are 𝑥1 = 1, 𝑥2 = 2, 𝑥3 = 3. The associated

𝑘 𝑥=1
probability function is 𝑃(𝑥) = { 2𝑘 𝑥=2
5𝑘 𝑥=3
Find 𝑃(𝑥 < 2), 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 2), 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 3).
Answer: We know that sum of all probabilities is one.

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1
∴ 𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 5𝑘 = 1 → 𝑘 =
8
1
∴ 𝑃(𝑥 = 1) = 𝑘 = 8
2
∴ 𝑃(𝑥 = 2) = 2𝑘 = 8
5
∴ 𝑃(𝑥 = 3) = 5𝑘 = 8
1
i. 𝑃(𝑥 < 2) = 𝑃(𝑥 = 1) = 8.
1 2 3
ii. 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 2) = 𝑃(= 1) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 2) = 8 + 8 = 8.
1 2 5 8
iii. 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 3) = 𝑃(= 1) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 2) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 3) = 8 + 8 + 8 = 8 = 1.

5. Given the following probability function,

𝑥 0 1 2 3 4 5

𝑓(𝑥) 0 c 2c 2c c 7c2

Find 𝑖) 𝑐 𝑖𝑖) 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2) 𝑖𝑖𝑖) 𝑃(𝑥 < 3).

Answer:(i) We know that sum of all probabilities is one.
∴ 𝑐 + 2𝑐 + 2𝑐 + 𝑐 + 7𝑐 2 = 1
∴ 7𝑐 2 + 6𝑐 = 1 → 7𝑐 2 + 6𝑐 − 1 = 0
∴ (7𝑐 − 1)(𝑐 + 1) = 0
1
∴ 𝑐 = −1 𝑜𝑟 𝑐 =
7
1
∴ 𝑐 = −1 is rejected as probability cannot be negative. so, use 𝑐 = 7

ii) 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 𝑃(𝑥 = 2) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 3) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 4) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 5)

∴ 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 2𝑐 + 2𝑐 + 𝑐 + 7𝑐 2
5 7 6
∴ 𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 2) = 5𝑐 + 7𝑐 2 = + = .
7 49 7
iii) 𝑃(𝑥 < 3) = 𝑃(𝑥 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 1) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 2)
3
∴ 𝑃(𝑥 < 3) = 0 + 𝑐 + 2𝑐 = 3𝑐 = .
7

6. Mathematical Expectation

If X is random variable with all possible 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , 𝑥3 , … 𝑥𝑛 and probability function

𝑓(𝑥1 ), 𝑓(𝑥2 ), … 𝑓(𝑥𝑛 ) then the mathematical expectation of X is denoted by 𝐸(𝑥) and
defined by 𝐸(𝑥) = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ).
Examples:

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Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

1. A die is tossed once. Random variable x, denote the digit that appears. Find the
expectation of x.
Answer: Probability distribution table is

𝑥 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
𝑃(𝑥)
6 6 6 6 6 6
1 1 1 1 1 1 21 7
𝐸(𝑥) = ∑ 𝑥 𝑃(𝑥) = 1 × +2 × + 3 × + 4 × + 5 + 6 × = = .
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 2

2. A die is tossed twice. X denotes the sum of digits in two throws. Find the mathematical
expectation of x.
Answer: Number of sample space is 36. Probability distribution table is,

𝑥 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

𝑃(𝑥) 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36

𝐸(𝑥) = ∑ 𝑥 𝑃(𝑥)
1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
𝐸(𝑥) = 2 36 + 3 36 + 4 36 + 5 36 + 6 36 + 7 36 + 8 36 + 9 36 + 10 36 + 11 36 + 12 36 = 7.

3. A coin is thrown 4 times successively. X denotes the number of heads. Find the
expectation of x.
Answer: All possible outcomes are 24 = 16, and sample space is,
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇𝐻,
𝐻𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝐻𝑇𝐻} = 16
i. Probability of No head ⇒ 𝑃(𝑥 = 0) = 1/16
ii. Probability of 1 head ⇒ 𝑃(𝑥 = 1) = 4/16
iii. Probability of 2 heads ⇒ 𝑃(𝑥 = 2) = 6/16
iv. Probability of 3 heads ⇒ 𝑃(𝑥 = 3) = 4/16
v. Probability of 4 heads ⇒ 𝑃(𝑥 = 4) = 1/16
Probability distribution table is,

𝑥 0 1 2 3 4
𝑃(𝑥) 1/16 4/16 6/16 4/16 1/16
1 4 6 4 1 32
𝐸(𝑥) = ∑ 𝑥 𝑃(𝑥) = 0 × +1× +2× +3× +4× = = 2.
16 16 16 16 16 16

4. There are three envelopes containing Rs.100, Rs.400, Rs.700 respectively. Player selects
an envelope and keeps with him, what he gets. Find the expected gain of the player.

Amol Jadhav 29
Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

Answer: Each envelope has probability 1/3. And probability distribution table is,

𝑥 100 400 700

𝑃(𝑥) 1/3 1/3 1/3
1 1 1 1200
𝐸(𝑥) = ∑ 𝑥 𝑃(𝑥) = 100 × 3 + 400 × 3 + 700 × 3 = = 400.
3

Expected gain is Rs.400.

1 2 1
5. If random variable X takes the values 𝑥 = 1, 2, 3 with corresponding probabilities 6 , 3 , 6

find E(x2).
Answer: Probability distribution table is

𝑥 1 2 3
𝑃(𝑥) 1/6 2/3 1/6
1 2 1 26 13
𝐸(𝑥 2 ) = ∑ 𝑥 2 𝑃(𝑥) = 12 × 6 + 22 × 3 + 32 × 6 = = .
6 3

1 2 3 3 5 1
6. Variable x takes the values 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 with probability of each as 15 , 15 , 15 , 15 , 15 , 15.

find expectation of x.
Answer: Probability distribution table is
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 2/151/15 3/15 3/15 5/15 1/15
1 2 3 3 5 1 42
𝐸(𝑥) = 0 × +1× +2× +3× +4× +5× = .
15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Probability Density Function:
The Function 𝑓(𝑥) called Probability Density Function satisfies following conditions,
𝑖. 𝑓(𝑥) ≥ 0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥 ∈ 𝑅.
`
𝑖𝑖. ∫𝑅 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = 1
𝑥

𝑑
We define for any interval 𝑐 < 𝑥 < 𝑑, 𝑃(𝑐 < 𝑥 < 𝑑) = ∫𝑐 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥
𝑘 𝑒 −𝛼𝑥 , 𝑥 ≥ 0, 𝛼 > 0
7. Given the density function 𝑓(𝑥) = { Find k.
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
∞ 0 ∞
Answer: We have ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥, 𝛼)𝑑𝑥 = ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥, 𝛼)𝑑𝑥 + ∫0 𝑓(𝑥, 𝛼)𝑑𝑥 = 1
∞
∴ 0 + ∫0 𝑓(𝑥, 𝛼)𝑑𝑥 = 1
∞
∴ ∫0 𝑘 𝑒 −𝛼𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 1
𝑒 −𝛼𝑥 ∞
∴ 𝑘[ −𝛼
] =1
0
𝑒 −∞ 𝑒0
∴ 𝑘 [ −𝛼 − −𝛼] = 1

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Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

0 1
∴ 𝑘[ + ]=1
−𝛼 𝛼
1
∴ 𝑘 [𝛼 ] = 1

∴ 𝑘 = 𝛼.
8. The probability density function f(x) of a continuous random variable x is defined by
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑘 𝑒 −|𝑥| , 𝑥 ∈ (−∞, ∞) Find value of k.
∞ 0 ∞
Answer: We have ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥, 𝛼)𝑑𝑥 = ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥, 𝛼)𝑑𝑥 + ∫0 𝑓(𝑥, 𝛼)𝑑𝑥 = 1
0 ∞

∴ ∫ 𝑘 𝑒 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 𝑘 𝑒 −𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 1
−∞ 0

𝑒 −𝑥 ∞
∴ 𝑘[𝑒 𝑥 ]0−∞ + 𝑘 [ −1 ] = 1
0

∴ 𝑘[𝑒 0 − 𝑒 −∞ ] + 𝑘[−𝑒 −∞ + 𝑒 0 ] = 1
∴ 𝑘[1] + 𝑘[1] = 1 ⇒ 𝑘 + 𝑘 = 1
1
∴𝑘= .
2

7. Chi-Square Distribution

Chi-Square Distribution is used mainly in

1. Testing Hypothesis.
2. Testing Independence of attributes.
3. Testing the goodness of fit a model.
The Chi-Square Distribution is denoted by 𝜒𝑛2 . Here 𝑛 is the parameter of the distribution
also called as “n degrees of freedom”.
Definition:
If 𝑂1 , 𝑂2 , 𝑂3 … 𝑂𝑘 be the observed frequencies and 𝑒1 , 𝑒2 , 𝑒3 … 𝑒𝑘 be the expected frequencies,
then the variate 𝜒𝑛2 is defined as
𝑘
2
(𝑂𝑖 − 𝑒𝑖 )2
𝜒 =∑ .
𝑒𝑖
𝑖=1

Examples:
1. In experiment on pea breading, the following frequencies of seeds were obtained.
Round and Wrinkled and Round and Wrinkled and
Total
Green Green Yellow Yellow
222 120 32 150 524
Theory predicts that the frequencies should be in proportion 8:2:2:1. find 𝜒32 .

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Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

Solution: From the given data expected frequencies are (8+2+2+1=13)

Observed
222 120 32 150
frequencies

Expected 8 2 2 1
frequencies 524 = 323 524 = 81 524 = 81 524 = 40
13 13 13 13

(𝑂𝑖 − 𝑒𝑖 )2
𝑂𝑖 𝑒𝑖 (𝑂𝑖 − 𝑒𝑖 )2 (𝑂𝑖 − 𝑒𝑖 )2
𝑒𝑖
222 323 -101 10201 31.582
120 81 39 1521 18.778
32 81 -49 2401 29.642
150 40 110 12100 302.5
382.5
𝑘
(𝑂𝑖 − 𝑒𝑖 )2
𝜒2 = ∑ = 382.5.
𝑒𝑖
𝑖=1

2. Among 64 offsprings of a certain cross between guinea pigs 34 were red, 10were black
and 20 were white. According to genetic model, these numbers should be in the ratio
9:3:4. Find 𝜒 2 .
Solution: From the given data expected frequencies are (9+3+4=16)

Observed
34 10 20
frequencies

Expected 9 3 4
frequencies × 64 = 36 × 64 = 12 × 64 = 16
16 16 16

(𝑂𝑖 − 𝑒𝑖 )2
𝑂𝑖 𝑒𝑖 (𝑂𝑖 − 𝑒𝑖 )2 (𝑂𝑖 − 𝑒𝑖 )2
𝑒𝑖
34 36 -2 4 0.111111
10 12 -2 4 0.333333
20 16 4 16 1
1.444444
𝑘
2
(𝑂𝑖 − 𝑒𝑖 )2
𝜒 =∑ = 1.444.
𝑒𝑖
𝑖=1

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Engineering Mathematics-III/Probability

3. A sample analysis of examination results of 500 students was made. The observed
frequencies are 220, 170, 90, 20 and the numbers are in the ratio 4:3:2:1 Find 𝜒 2 .
Solution: From the given data expected frequencies are (4+3+2+1=10)

Observed
220 170 90 20
frequencies
Expected 4 3 2 1
frequencies 500 = 200 500 = 150 500 = 100 500 = 50
10 10 10 10

(Oi − ei )2
Oi ei (Oi − ei )2 (Oi − ei )2
ei
220 200 20 400 2

170 150 20 400 2.666667

90 100 -10 100 1

20 50 -30 900 18

23.66667

𝑘
2
(𝑂𝑖 − 𝑒𝑖 )2
𝜒 =∑ = 23.67.
𝑒𝑖
𝑖=1

Amol Jadhav 33