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How Japan Is Doubling Down on Its Military Power

Militay vessei from Japan and other countries sal in Sagai Bay during the International Fieet
Review, held by Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force. ST

Japan’s new national security strategy and related defense plans herald a major military
modernization effort in response to perceived threats in Northeast Asia, particularly China,

Article by Sheila A. Smith

December 20, 2022 3:22 pm (EST)

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In mid-December,
the cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio

approved the most ambitious and rapid expansion of military power in

Japan since the country’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) were created in 1954.

The aim is twofold: bolster Japan’s ability to deter aggression and ensure the

SDF are ready to fight should a conflict erupt. Prime Minister Kishida has
promised to raise the share of gross domestic product (GDP) dedicated to
national security to 2 percent, up from the traditional 1 percent cap of the
past four decades.

Three documents were announced that will guide the military’s expansion.

The first, a new National Security Strategy [PDF], presents Tokyo's

assessment of the threats arrayed against it and lays out the diplomatic,
economic, technological, and military instruments it will employ to address

them. The strategy, only the second in Japan’s postwar history, singles out

China, North Korea, and Russia for particular concern. Second, a ten-year

national defense plan [PDF] outlines the military enhancements required

for the SDF to do their job. The menu of defense improvements is

comprehensive: the plan calls for a new integrated operational command
for the SDF’s three forces, expanded space and cyber capabilities, and the
acquisition of long-range strike capabilities. The third document, a five-year
procurement plan [PDF in Japanese], outlines the initial priorities for

implementing the defense plan. An estimated $320 billion is to be spent in

this initial period, which begins next fiscal year and runs through 2027.

What are the most noteworthy aspects of Japan’s new

security strategy?

First, and most conspicuous, is the introduction of the long-range

conventional strike option. For some years now, Japan has been developing

what it calls its “standoff” capability, or the ability to respond to threats in

the sea and airspace surrounding the Japanese archipelago. The missiles it

has used for coastal defenses have a limited range, around 125 miles (200

kilometers), but new air-to-air missiles purchased from Norway will have a
range of over 300 miles (480 kilometers). Japan now will be looking to

introduce missiles that have a range of 1,000 miles (1,610 kilometers). These

will likely be U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles until Japan is able to

build new missiles on its own. These new capabilities will allow Japan to
strike targets deep within continental Asia and are intended to make
potential aggressors think twice about attacking Japan.

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The new strategy also emphasizes the development of Japan’s indigenous

technology. The share of the national budget given to innovation will for
the first time include technologies required for the country’s defenses, and
strategic competition will be one of the drivers of national investment in
research and development (R&D). The Ministry of Defense will also be

looking to support greater investment in weapons development, both in

indigenous production and through international consortia. Missile
development will be a priority.

Finally, defense planners have given serious consideration to the SDF’s

ability to fight as a cohesive force and sustain operations over the course of
a crisis or conflict. Priorities include developing integrated operational
planning, including a new joint command, and investing in the forces’
resilience. Making civilian airfields and ports accessible to the SDF,
including to their newest platforms such as the F-35 fighter jet as well as

destroyers, will go a long way to ensuring readiness. The war in Ukraine has
also instilled a sense of urgency in Japan when it comes to securing basic
logistical requirements such as fuel, ammunition, and other critical

supplies.

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Why is Japan making these changes?

This leap in arming the SDF is a product of several factors, the most obvious

being the growing presence of foreign militaries in and around Japan. North
Korean missiles traverse Japan’s exclusive economic zone and territory

frequently and without warning. China’s military regularly operates near

Japan’s waters and airspace. And the territorial dispute between Japan and

China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea attracts

considerable coast guard and military attention. These apparent threats

have been growing since the end of the Cold War, and defense planners
have long argued for many of the improvements contained in the new plan.

Meanwhile, the pace of technological change among militaries in the region

is accelerating, and Japan has fallen behind. The burgeoning arsenals of
missiles in Northeast Asia, now faster, more accurate, and harder to detect,

have deepened Japan’s sense of vulnerability. For some time, Tokyo

emphasized ballistic missile defenses to cope with this proliferation, but the

sheer quantity of missiles in the region now makes it unrealistic to rely on

those defenses alone. Moreover, hypersonic glide technology has worsened

the situation by rendering incoming missiles virtually undetectable until it

is too late. New asymmetric capabilities developed by China also threaten to

undercut the United States’ ability to come to Japan’s aid. China’s satellite
weaponry, cyber offenses, and surface-to-ship missiles all complicate the
traditional division of labor between Japanese and U.S. forces in defending

Japan.
 More on:

Japan

‘Defense and Security

China
North Korea
Asia

The Kishida cabinet’s strategic overhaul not only reveals the conclusions of

the defense planning community in Tokyo, it also reflects the growing

popular unease in Japan, especially about China. A recent Yomiuri-Gallup

poll found that 9o percent of Japanese respondents did not trust China, and

61 percent believed Beijing would invade Taiwan. Indeed, one of the most

striking aspects of this 2022 strategic review has been how little opposition

the government’s plans have received. Kishida may seem an odd steward of

military expansion given his diplomatic experience and deep personal

commitment to nuclear disarmament, but he is taking bold steps to ensure
that Japan can keep pace with the rapidly shifting military balance. At the

same time, he is also deepening Japan’s diplomatic engagement with like-

minded countries in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. The only outstanding

question is how Japan will finance its military ambition.

Change is coming fast and furious across the globe. The region—indeed the

world—looks far more menacing to the Japanese people. The message being

sent from Tokyo is that Japan will prepare to act, and act without hesitation,

should it need to defend itself.

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