Answer 1:

Introduction:

Exponential smoothing is the most generally involved class of procedures for

smoothing discrete time series to gauge the short term. The

thought of exponential smoothing is to smooth the first series the way the

moving normal does and to involve the smoothed series in forecasting future

upsides of the variable of interest. In exponential smoothing, be that as it may, we need

to permit the later upsides of the series to have more prominent effect on the

gauge of future qualities than the more far off perceptions.

Exponential smoothing is a basic and commonsense way to deal with forecasting,

by which the gauge is developed from an exponentially weighted normal

of past perceptions. The biggest weight is given to the current perception, less

weight to the promptly going before perception, even less weight to the

perception before that, and so on (exponential rot of impact of past information)

Straightforward EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

This forecasting strategy is generally broadly utilized of all forecasting methods. It

requires little calculation. This technique is utilized when information design is

roughly level (i.e., there could be no neither cyclic variety nor

articulated pattern in the authentic information).

Let a noticed time series be y1, y2, .... yn. Officially, the straightforward exponential

smoothing condition appears as

St+1 = αyt + (1-α) St

Where Si  The smoothed worth of time series at time I

yi Real worth of time series at time I

α Smoothing steady

In the event of basic exponential smoothing, the smoothed measurement is the

Guage esteem.

Ft+1 = αyt + (1-α) Ft

Where Ft+1  Guage worth of time series at time t+1

Ft  Guage worth of time series at time t

This means:

Ft = αyt-1 + (1-α) Ft-1

Ft-1 = αyt-1 + (1-α) Ft-2

Ft-2 = αyt-2 + (1-α) Ft-3

Ft-3 = αyt-3 + (1-α) Ft-4

STEPS/PROCEDURE:

The general formula to obtain forecast value using simple exponential forecast
is provided below:

F t+ 1= αA t +(1−α ) Ft

The average square error is obtained as given below:

MSE=
∑ (Error )2
Total number of forecast value

MAD=
∑ ⃒ Error⃒
Total number of forecast value

Alpha 0.2

α 1-α
0.2 0.8
Year FTAs Foreca |ERROR| Error
in st Square
India
 (in
Million
s)
1991 1.68
2001 2.54 1.68 0.86 0.7396
2002 2.38 1.852 0.528 0.278784
0.5966017
2003 2.73 1.9576 0.7724 6
2.1120 1.8168883
2004 3.46 8 1.34792 26
2.3816 2.3664776
2005 3.92 64 1.538336 49
2.6893 1.760668 3.0999546
2006 4.45 31 8 23
3.0414 2.038535 4.1556251
2007 5.08 65 04 09
3.4491 1.830828 3.3519312
2008 5.28 72 03 83
3.8153 1.354662 1.8351102
2009 5.17 38 43 87
4.0862 1.693729 2.8687211
2010 5.78 7 94 11
4.4250 1.884983 3.5531645
2011 6.31 16 95 01
4.8020 1.777987 3.1612383
2012 6.58 13 16 48
5.1576 1.812389 3.2847565
2013 6.97 1 73 32
5.5200 2.159911 4.6652189
2014 7.68 88 78 13
2015 8.03 5.9520 2.077929 4.3177907
 71 43 03
6.3676 2.432343 5.9162951
2016 8.8 56 54 04
6.8541 3.185874 10.149798
2017 10.04 25 83 45
1.709205 3.3034092
92 18
MAD MSE

Alpha 0.4

α 1-α
0.4 0.6
FTAs
in
India
(in
Million Foreca Error
Year s) st |ERROR| Square
1991 1.68
2001 2.54 1.68 0.86 0.7396
2002 2.38 2.024 0.356 0.126736
0.3176449
2003 2.73 2.1664 0.5636 6
2.3918 1.1409657
2004 3.46 4 1.06816 86
2.8191 1.2119720
2005 3.92 04 1.100896 03
 3.2594 1.190537 1.4173797
2006 4.45 62 6 77
3.7356 1.344322 1.8072031
2007 5.08 77 56 45
4.2734 1.006593 1.0132305
2008 5.28 06 54 47
4.6760 0.493956 0.2439926
2009 5.17 44 12 5
4.8736 0.906373 0.8215132
2010 5.78 26 67 35
5.2361 1.073824 1.1530984
2011 6.31 76 2 21
5.6657 0.914294 0.8359344
2012 6.58 05 52 73
6.0314 0.938576 0.8809262
2013 6.97 23 71 47
6.4068 1.273146 1.6209008
2014 7.68 54 03 09
6.9161 1.113887 1.2407456
2015 8.03 12 62 23
7.3616 1.438332 2.0688005
2016 8.8 67 57 82
2.102999 4.4226070
2017 10.04 7.937 54 74
1.043852 1.2390147
98 84
MAD MSE

Alpha 0.6
 α 1-α
0.6 0.4
FTAs in India (in Forecas Error
Year Millions) t |ERROR| Square
1991 1.68
2001 2.54 1.68 0.86 0.7396
2002 2.38 2.196 0.184 0.033856
2003 2.73 2.3064 0.4236 0.17943696
0.80899231
2004 3.46 2.56056 0.89944 4
3.10022
2005 3.92 4 0.819776 0.67203269
0.73601025
2006 4.45 3.59209 0.8579104 4
4.10683 0.9731641 0.94704848
2007 5.08 6 6 2
4.69073 0.5892656 0.34723402
2008 5.28 4 6 3
5.04429 0.1257062 0.01580206
2009 5.17 4 7 5
5.11971 0.6602825 0.43597298
2010 5.78 7 1 8
5.51588 0.63061546
2011 6.31 7 0.794113 1
5.99235 0.34532688
2012 6.58 5 0.5876452 2
6.34494 0.6250580 0.39069760
2013 6.97 2 8 4
6.71997 0.9600232 0.92164460
2014 7.68 7 3 6
2015 8.03 7.29599 0.7340092 0.53876964
 1 9 2
7.73639 1.0636037 1.13125286
2016 8.8 6 2 7
8.37455 1.6654414 2.77369534
2017 10.04 9 9 6
0.7542964 0.68517577
1 6
MAD MSE

Alpha 0.8

α 1-α
0.8 0.2
FTAs in India (in Error
Year Millions) Forecast |ERROR| Square
1991 1.68
2001 2.54 1.68 0.86 0.7396
2002 2.38 2.368 0.012 0.000144
2003 2.73 2.3776 0.3524 0.12418576
2004 3.46 2.65952 0.80048 0.64076823
3.29990
2005 3.92 4 0.620096 0.384519049
3.79598
2006 4.45 1 0.6540192 0.427741114
4.31919
2007 5.08 6 0.76080384 0.578822483
4.92783
2008 5.28 9 0.35216077 0.124017207
5.20956 -
2009 5.17 8 0.03956785 0.001565614
 5.17791
2010 5.78 4 0.60208643 0.36250807
5.65958
2011 6.31 3 0.65041729 0.423042646
6.17991
2012 6.58 7 0.40008346 0.160066773
6.49998
2013 6.97 3 0.47001669 0.22091569
6.87599
2014 7.68 7 0.80400334 0.646421368
7.51919
2015 8.03 9 0.51080067 0.260917322
2016 8.8 7.92784 0.87216013 0.760663299
8.62556
2017 10.04 8 1.41443203 2.000617958
0.59390541 0.462148034
MAD MSE

Conclusion:

After the model is indicated, its presentation attributes ought to be confirmed or approved by
examination of its gauge with authentic information for the interaction it was intended to
conjecture.

We can utilize the mistake measures like MAPE (Mean outright rate blunder), MSE (Mean
square blunder) or RMSE (Root mean square mistake) and α is picked to such an extent that the
mistake is least.

Normally the MSE or RMSE can be utilized as the basis for choosing a fitting smoothing
consistent. For example, by relegating a qualities from 0.1 to 0.99, we select the worth that
creates the littlest MSE or RMSE Since F1 isn't known, we can:
Set the main gauge equivalent to the primary perception. Along these lines we can utilize 1

Utilize the normal of the initial five or six perceptions for the underlying smoothed esteem.

Answer 2:

Introduction:

UNDERSTANDING AND USAGE OF FORMULA:

Customary dependence Between the parts: Both the elements may be normally affecting each
other so that neither can be given out as the explanation and the other the effect.

Right when two variables(X and Y) impact each other regularly, we can't say X is the
explanation or Y is the explanation.

For Example, The expense of a thing is influenced by demand and supply.

On account of pure chance: In fairly model, X and Y are astoundingly related anyway in the
universe X and Y are not related.

Relationship as a result of any third typical part: Both the related parts may be impacted by one
or various variables.

- X and Y don't have a short connection.

It is certainly significant for Market experts to focus in on the connection between factors.
It helps in looking over the degree of connection between the elements.

We can in this manner test the meaning of the relationship.

Investigating screw up can in like actually balancing out there by knowing the relationship.

It is the guard behind the appraisal of apostatize.

It is used to pick the connection between datasets in business.

STEPS/PROCEDURE:

1. In Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & Total MSMEs

In
Migration
of Persons
from
other
states
(Census of Total
State India) MSME
ANDAMAN&NICOBAR
ISLANDS 81,267 6,061
ANDHRA PRADESH 15,91,890 6,41,929
ARUNACHAL
PRADESH 1,36,010 60,932
ASSAM 4,95,699 20,189
BIHAR 11,11,954 9,02,520
 CHANDIGARH 6,33,966 11,209
CHHATTISGARH 12,67,668 69,758
DELHI 63,30,065 1,63,821
GOA 2,69,689 8,620
GUJARATT 39,16,075 8,07,378
HARYANA 36,26,3 18 1,85,486
HIMACHAL PRADESH 3,95,504 14,674
JAMMU & KASHMIR 1,55,187 9,399
JHARKHAND 21,95,521 1,57,813
KARNATAKA 32,47,660 3,32,872
KERALA 6,54.423 1,25,934
MADHYA PRADESH 27,44,332 9,34,293
90,87,380
MAHARASHTRA D 16,92,859
MANIPURR 20,100 34,423
MEGHALAYA 1,07,915 2,208
MIZORAM 41,380 3,238
NAGALAND 1,08,020 1,543
ODISHA 8,55,096 1,19,291
PUDUCHERRY 3,39,967 10,539
PUNJAB 24,88,299 2,03,394
RAJASTHAN 26,04,298 5,72,546
SIKKIM 61,163 875
TAMIL NADU 16,50,771 10,32,490
TRIPURA 87,378 5,936
UTTAR PRADESH 40,61,933 8,87,413
Uttarkhand 12,50,575 40,443
West Bengal 23,81,045 2,31,190

Correlation
 Column 1 Column 2
Column 1 1
0.70790882
Column 2 2 1

2. In Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & Active Companies

In Migration of
Persons from
other states (Census
State of India) Active Companies
ANDAMAN&NICOBAR
ISLANDS 81,267 319
ANDHRA PRADESH 15,91,890 1,16,210
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 1,36,010 237
ASSAM 4,95,699 6,346
BIHAR 11,11,954 20,867
CHANDIGARH 6,33,966 7,956
CHHATTISGARH 12,67,668 7,109
DELHI 63,30,065 2,16,531
GOA 2,69,689 4,125
GUJARATT 39,16,075 62,619
HARYANA 36,26,318 30,868
HIMACHAL PRADESH 3,95,504 3,344
JAMMU & KASHMIR 1,55,187 2,745
JHARKHAND 21,95,521 9,554
KARNATAKA 32,47,660 68333
 KERALA 6,54,423 31,244
MADHYA PRADESH 27,44,332 22,315
MAHARASHTRA 90,87,380 2,31,912
MANIPURR 20,100 434
MEGHALAYA 1,07,915 560
MIZORAM 41,380 66
NAGALAND 1,08,020 235
ODISHA 8,55,096 15,204
PUDUCHERRY 3,39,967 1,282
PUNJAB 24,88,299 16,909
RAJASTHAN 26,04,298 37,022
SIKKIM 61,163 2
TAMIL NADU 16,50,771 76,675
TRIPURA 87,378 317
UTTAR PRADESH 40,61,933 70,863
Uttarkhand 12,50,575 4,792
West Bengal 23,81,045 1,35,844

Column 1 Column 2
Column 1 1
Column 2 0.853144755 1

3. In Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & 2017-18 GSDP -
CURRENT PRICES (` in Crore)
 In Migration
of Persons
from 2017-18 GSDP
other states - CURRENT
(Census of PRICES in
State India) Crore)
ANDAMAN&NICOBAR
ISLANDS 81,267 7,871
ANDHRA PRADESH 15,91,890 15,46,313
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 1,36,010 22,432
ASSAM 4,95,699 2,88,691
BIHAR 11,11,954 4,84,740
CHANDIGARH 6,33,966 38,760
CHHATTISGARH 12,67,668 4,84,740
DELHI 63,30,065 6,86,824
GOA 2,69,689 70,494
GUJARATT 39,16,075 13,28,068
HARYANA 36,26,318 6,49,592
HIMACHAL PRADESH 3,95,504 1,38,351
JAMMU & KASHMIR 1,55,187 1,37,427
JHARKHAND 21,95,521 2,76,243
KARNATAKA 32,47,660 1,35,75,799
KERALA 6,54,423 7,01,577
MADHYA PRADESH 27,44,332 7,24,729
MAHARASHTRA 90,87,380 24,11,600
MANIPURR 20,100 23,835
MEGHALAYA 1,07,915 30,790
MIZORAM 41,380 18,737
NAGALAND 1,08,020 24,492
ODISHA 8,55,096 4,34,769
 PUDUCHERRY 3,39,967 32,962
PUNJAB 24,88,299 4,78,636
RAJASTHAN 26,04,298 8,35,170
SIKKIM 61,163 23,495
TAMIL NADU 16,50,771 14,61,841
TRIPURA 87,378 44,219
UTTAR PRADESH 40,61,933 14,60,443
Uttarkhand 12,50,575 2,22,836
West Bengal 23,81,045 9,99,585

Column 1 Column 2
Column 1 1
Column 2 0.327817938 1

4. Total MSMEs & Active Companies

Total Active
State MSME Companies
ANDAMAN&NICOBAR
ISLANDS 6,061 319
ANDHRA PRADESH 6,41,929 1,16,210
ARUNACHAL PRADESH 60,932 237
ASSAM 20,189 6,346
BIHAR 9,02,520 20,867
CHANDIGARH 11,209 7,956
CHHATTISGARH 69,758 7,109
DELHI 1,63,821 2,16,531
GOA 8,620 4,125
GUJARATT 8,07,378 62,619
HARYANA 1,85,486 30,868
HIMACHAL PRADESH 14,674 3,344
JAMMU & KASHMIR 9,399 2,745
JHARKHAND 1,57,813 9,554
KARNATAKA 3,32,872 68333
KERALA 1,25,934 31,244
MADHYA PRADESH 9,34,293 22,315
MAHARASHTRA 16,92,859 2,31,912
MANIPURR 34,423 434
MEGHALAYA 2,208 560
MIZORAM 3,238 66
NAGALAND 1,543 235
ODISHA 1,19,291 15,204
PUDUCHERRY 10,539 1,282
PUNJAB 2,03,394 16,909
RAJASTHAN 5,72,546 37,022
SIKKIM 875 2
TAMIL NADU 10,32,490 76,675
TRIPURA 5,936 317
UTTAR PRADESH 8,87,413 70,863
Uttarkhand 40,443 4,792
West Bengal 2,31,190 1,35,844

Column 1 Column 2
Column 1
1
Column
2 0.613453432 1

Conclusion:

Positive connection: It should be positive when the probable additions of the two parts move in a
close to heading with the objective that an extension in one variable is followed by an
improvement in the other variable or a decrease in one variable is followed by a diminishing in
the other variable.

Two variables X and Y are going down a comparable way.

Enduring X outings, Y moreover ascends, as well as an opposite technique for getting around.

Occasions of positive relationship are (a) Age and Pay, (b) Degree of precipitation, and the
yield of the assemble.

2. Negative connection: It should be negative when the probable additions of the two parts move
the substitute way with the objective that an extension in one variable is followed by a
decreasing in the other variable.

Two parts X and Y are going down an opposite way.

If X risings, Y falls, as well as the opposite procedure for getting around.

 Occasions of negative connection are (a) Level above sea level and temperature, (b) Strategies
of woolen pieces of clothing and temperature.

ANSWER 3(A):

UNDERSTANDING AND USAGE OF FORMULA:

Different clear procedures are only gigantic in case we can expect that our data follow a spread
of a particular sort, the Typical vehicle. This is a predictable, even, unimodal course portrayed by
a mathematical condition. I will dismiss the mathematical detail.

There are amazingly various people from the Standard vehicle family. The particular person
from the family that we have is depicted by two numbers, called limits. Limit is a mathematical
term meaning a number which depicts a person from a class of things.

STEPS/PROCEDURE:

Number Of
Total Indigenous
(Desi) Total
District Buffalo Cattle
Uttarkashi 25945 82991
Chamboli 37922 132165
Rudraprayag 31115 71277
Tehri Garhwal 79394 80833
Dehradun 52185 87753
 Garhwal 30076 235412
Pithoragarh 37056 108417
Bageshwar 31432 70863
Almora 77444 132038
Champawat 18599 45506
Nainital 77759 101009
Udham Singh
Nagar 152911 63311
Hardwar 214480 63728
66639.8461 98100.2307
Mean 5 7
Standard 57310.4363 48763.3374
Deviation 9 9

The limitations of a Normal dispersal turn out to be vague from the mean and change of the
stream. These two numbers let us in on which individual from the Typical family we have.

the standard deviation is a level of how much assortment or dispersing of a lot of values. A low
standard deviation shows that the characteristics will typically be close to the mean (similarly
called the ordinary worth) of the set, while a top notch need deviation shows that the
characteristics are a spread out over a more essential locale.

Standard deviation may be contracted SD, and is generally dependably kept an eye out for in
mathematical texts and conditions by the lower case Greek letter σ (sigma), for everybody
standard deviation, or the Latin letter s, for the model standard deviation.

The standard deviation of a random variable, model, certified people, educational report, or
probability scattering is the square underpinning of its unsteadiness. It is logarithmically more
clear, yet in the end less vivacious, than the standard all around deviation. A consistent property
of the standard deviation is that, not normal for the change, it is passed on in close to unit as the
data.
The standard deviation of a comprehensive local area or test and the standard screw up of an
evaluation (e.g., of the model mean) are extremely uncommon, yet related. The model mean's
standard goof is the standard deviation of the plan of means that would be found by drawing an
unending number of reiterated tests from everybody and working out a mean for each model.

Conclusion:

The mean's standard blunder breezes up pushing toward everybody standard deviation separated
the square supporting of the model size, and is outlined by using the model standard deviation
disconnected by the square base of the model size. For example, a survey's standard stagger
(what is tended to as the security backing of the review), is the ordinary standard deviation of the
evaluated mean if a for all intents and purposes indistinguishable layout were to be driven on
various events. Hence, the standard oversight gauges the standard deviation of a check, which
itself estimates how much the check depends on the particular model that was taken from
everybody.

Answer 3B:

Introduction:

The assortments in a period series which work themselves over a degree of over one year are the
cyclic groupings. This oscillatory improvement has a period of influencing of more than a year.
One complete period is a cycle. This cyclic improvement is once in a while called the 'Business
Cycle'.
It is a four-stage cycle including the long stretches of progress, slump, despondent, and recovery.
The cyclic course of action may be standard are not uncommon. The risings and the downswings
in business depend upon the opportunity of the money related powers and the correspondence
between them working enthusiastically together.

STEPS/PROCEDURE:

4000

3500

3000 Prod Pro

uctiv duc
2500 ity tivi
Rape ty
2000 seed Gro
& und
1500 Must nut
ard (Kg
1000 (Kg./ ./he
hecta ctar
500 re) e)

0
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 92 96 01 06 11 16 21
5 0- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80- 85- 90- 95- 00- 05- 10- 15- 20-
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20

There is another part which causes the assortment in the variable under study. They are not
standard assortments and are basically random or odd. These risks are unexpected, wild, offbeat,
and are clashing. These powers are shudders, wars, flood, starvations, and maybe a couple
fiascoes.

To concentrate on the feature of an alliance, its past can contemplate the nonstop data. Exactly
when correlations of over a broad assortment of time data are done, the cycle is known as Time
Series Assessment. Time series are associated all through some timespan as opposed to being
bound to a more restricted time period. Time series evaluation draws its tremendous considering
the way that it can help with ponder what's to come. Dependent upon the past and future models,
time series can contemplate what's to come.

Conclusion:

Time series assessment is helpful in money related readiness as it offers understanding into the
future data depending on the present and past data of execution. It can instigate the evaluation of
an ordinary time's data by genuinely checking the current and past data out. That means, time
series is used to close the future by using the models and valuations of the all through an epic
period of time.