AMP

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

27 February 2024
ANTIQUE’S MORNING PRESENTATION
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Market Snapshot
Global Indices Closing % Chg % YTD
SECTOR UPDATE
Dow Jones 39,069 (0.2) 3.7
Indian IT Services NASDAQ 15,976 (0.1) 6.4
Takeaways from US banking results—No visible improvement in FTSE 7,684 (0.3) (0.6)
tech spending by US banks CAC 7,930 (0.5) 5.1
DAX 17,423 0.0 4.0
FMCG
Russia 1,097 3.1 1.3
Low base and RM softening to aid HPC margins
Bovespa 129,609 0.1 (3.4)
Nikkei 39,234 0.4 17.2
Global News Hang Seng 16,635 (0.5) (2.4)
Shanghai Composite 2,977 (0.9) 0.1
 The Dow closed lower Monday as investors mulled ongoing quarterly earnings
from corporate America and awaited further catalysts including the release of Indian Indices Closing % Chg % YTD
key inflation data later this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was Sensex 72,790 (0.5) 0.8
down 66 points, or 0.2%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and NASDAQ Composite Nifty 22,122 (0.4) 1.8
slipped 0.1%. MSCI India 975 (0.4) 5.7
 The Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.35% to close at 39,234 in post-holiday trade on CNX Midcap 49,102 (0.4) 6.3
Monday, scaling new all-time highs and tracking a global rally in equities as BSE Smallcap 46,005 (0.1) 7.8
Nvidia's strong earnings report boosted market sentiment. Investors also
brushed aside hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials who continued Flows (USD mn) Prev. Day MTD
to push back on expectations of early interest rate cuts. FII 187 (73)

Sector & Corporate News Provisional flows (USD mn)

FIIs (34)
 Sudarshan Setu: India's longest cable stayed bridge inaugurated
Local (1)
by PM Modi from Okha to Beyt Dwarka; Gujrat.
 The Indian government, after years of watching from the sidelines of the Volumes USD bn % Chg
chips race, now has to evaluate USD 21 billion of semiconductor Cash (NSE + BSE) 12.6 (7.9)
proposals and divvy up taxpayer support between foreign chipmakers, F&O (net) 3,267.2 105.3
local champions or some combination of the two.
FII F&O Stock Fut Index Fut
Israel's Tower Semiconductor Ltd. is proposing a USD 9 billion
Net ($ mn) 121 64
plant, while India's Tata Group has put forward an USD 8 billion
Open Int (%) (1.1) 0.8
chip fabrication unit, people familiar matter said.
 M&A deal value in India fell 27 per cent in 2023 to USD 136 ADR/GDR Gainers Last % Chg
billion but the deals market is expected to remain steady in the current year, SBI 92.1 0.3
Deloitte India said in a report.
ADR/GDR Losers Last % Chg
 US semiconductor major Qualcomm is doubling down on investments in India, Reliance 72.3 (0.7)
surpassing rivals AMD and Micron. The company plans to partner with chip Dr Reddy 77.1 (0.6)
manufacturers and develop a semiconductor ecosystem in India. It also aims Infosys 20.0 (0.6)
to diversify into automotive, 5G, PC, hybrid AI, IoT, Metaverse, and XR. Wipro 6.3 (0.5)
 Walt Disney and Reliance Industries have signed a binding agreement to ICICI Bank 25.5 (0.4)
merge their media operations in India, a Bloomberg report quoted people
familiar with the matter. The report said Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries
is expected to own a 61% stake in the merged entity.

Please refer to disclosures at the end of the Research Report

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 2

Sectoral indices Delivery Spike

Closing % Chg % MTD % YTD Company Volume Spike (%) Chg (%)
BSE Auto 47,359 (0.2) 7.6 12.1 Bharat Forge Ltd 1,397,054 612% 3.84%
BSE Bank 52,914 (0.5) 1.8 (2.7) Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd 4,324,084 147% 2.66%
BSE Cap Goods 57,208 0.8 0.9 2.8 LIC Housing Finance Ltd 1,019,575 130% 2.62%
BSE Cons dur 50,796 (1.2) 0.9 1.6 Power Grid Corp of India Ltd 16,655,691 105% 2.07%
BSE FMCG 19,583 (0.1) (1.6) (4.3) Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 4,648,104 101% -1.03%
BSE IT 38,219 (1.1) 2.3 6.1 Asian Paints Ltd 2,162,110 95% -3.94%
BSE Health 35,495 (0.7) 5.0 12.5 Larsen & Toubro Ltd 2,490,392 91% 2.43%
BSE Metal 27,049 (1.3) 1.1 0.2 Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd 4,597,277 88% 1.49%
BSE Oil 28,548 0.7 10.2 24.0 Exide Industries Ltd 662,023 82% -0.56%
BSE Power 6,680 1.0 5.7 14.8 UPL Ltd 1,130,937 77% 0.09%
BSE PSU 18,689 (0.1) 8.1 20.1
BSE Realty 7,263 0.1 7.3 17.4
BSE TECK 16,859 (1.1) 1.3 5.8

Derivatives Update
Long Build Up
Company Last % Chg % Chg OI OI (in 000)
BOSCHLTD 28772.6 1.44 12.88 256
SUNTV 634.30 0.01 10.63 6855
HDFCAMC 3885.45 1.83 10.08 3306
Nifty Outperformers
GLENMARK 929.4 3.35 8.03 16707
Price % Chg % MTD % YTD
Short Build Up
Larsen & Toubro Ltd 3,470 2.4 (0.3) (1.6) Company Last % Chg % Chg OI OI (in 000)
Power Grid Corp Of India Ltd 288 2.1 11.0 21.3 BANDHANBNK 202.8 -2.97 10.99 107017
Adani Enterprises Ltd 3,328 1.7 5.9 16.8 ATUL 6284.70 -0.11 10.58 388
Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd 627 1.5 24.8 39.2 MARICO 525.05 -1.11 9.45 11790
Tata Consumer Products Ltd 1,177 1.4 5.3 8.3 ASIANPAINT 2859.3 -4.08 8.68 9456
Adani Ports And Special Econ 1,338 1.3 10.8 30.6 Short Covering
Sbi Life Insurance Co Ltd 1,549 1.3 10.6 8.1
Company Last % Chg % Chg OI OI (in 000)
GUJGASLTD 567.65 -1.82 -11.35 7826
Nifty Underperformers SBICARD 731.05 -0.91 -10.89 24649
Price % Chg % MTD % YTD TATACHEM 966.65 -0.84 -10.82 13873
Asian Paints Ltd 2,868 (3.9) (3.0) (15.7) METROPOLIS 1698.9 -2.84 -10.20 1208
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise 6,584 (2.8) 3.6 15.4 Long Unwinding
Hindalco Industries Ltd 505 (2.6) (12.8) (17.9) Company Last % Chg % Chg OI OI (in 000)
Divi'S Laboratories Ltd 3,577 (1.9) (2.5) (8.4) BERGEPAINT 564.00 1.28 -15.21 16084
Tata Steel Ltd 143 (1.9) 4.9 2.2 DELTACORP 149.65 1.70 -14.75 12186
Titan Co Ltd 3,623 (1.9) (2.0) (1.4) RAMCOCEM 872.50 0.36 -10.06 3433
Tech Mahindra Ltd 1,298 (1.8) (2.7) 2.0 IDFCFIRSTB 84.05 1.27 -9.39 357187

Bulk Deals
Security Name Client Name Buy/Sell Qty Price Value (mn)
Easy Trip Planners Ltd Minerva Ventures Fund Buy 90,00,000 48.75 439
Rashi Peripherals Limited Citadel Securities India Markets Private Limited Buy 3,84,001 377.12 145
BGR Energy Systems Ltd Sasikala Raghupathy Sell 18,11,464 79.73 144
Asso Alcohols & Brew Ltd Guttikonda Vara Lakshmi Buy 1,57,540 574.06 90
Annapurna Swadisht Ltd Ajay Shiv Narayan Upadhyaya Buy 2,00,000 375.72 75
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 3

Nifty Nifty P/E Nifty P/B

23000 36 4.0
20000 31 3.5
17000 3.0
26
14000 2.5
11000 21 2.0
8000 16 1.5
Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22 Feb-23 Feb-24 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22 Feb-23 Feb-24 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22 Feb-23 Feb-24

Source: Bloomberg

Sensex FII Provisional Flows (INR bn) DII Provisional Flows (INR bn)
290 155
74000
230 130
64000 105 c
170
80
54000 110 55
44000 50 30
(10) 5
34000 (20)
(70) (45)
24000
(130) (70)
Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22 Feb-23 Feb-24
Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22 Feb-23 Feb-24 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22 Feb-23 Feb-24
Source: Bloomberg

Economy, Money & Banking Commodities Update

Forex Rate Last % Chg % MTD % YTD Commodities Last % Chg % MTD % YTD
INR~USD 82.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 Gold ($/Ounce) 2,032 0.0 (0.4) (1.5)
INR~EUR 89.9 (0.1) 0.0 2.3 Crude Oil ($/Bl) 78 0.1 2.5 7.8
INR~GBP 105.1 (0.1) 0.1 0.6 Aluminium ($/t) 2,132 (0.2) (4.9) (9.1)
Copper ($/t) 8,362 (1.3) (1.6) (1.2)
Bond Market Last Chg (bps) MTD (bps) YTD (bps) Zinc ($/t) 2,383 0.7 (5.4) (9.8)
10 Year Bond 7.1 (1) (8) (11) Lead ($/t) 2,110 0.1 (2.7) 3.7
Interbank call 6.7 - (15) 46 Nickel ($/t) 16,931 (2.0) 5.7 3.4

INR/USD Gold and silver prices (USD/Tr.Oz) Crude prices (USD/barrel)

84 2200 30 95
27
1900
83 24
75
1600 21
18
82 1300 55
15
1000 12
81 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22 Feb-23 Feb-24 35
Feb-23 May-23 Aug-23 Nov-23 Feb-24 Gold (LHS) Silver (RHS) Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22 Feb-23 Feb-24

Source: Bloomberg

Inflation vs 10 year yield Nifty premium/discount NSE volatility index (%)

20 30 25.8 17
15 25 16
20.3 19.6 15
10
20 15.1 16.1 14
5 13
0 15 12
-5 10 11
10
Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

5
Apr-22

Apr-23

1-Jan
12-Jan
23-Jan
3-Feb
14-Feb
25-Feb
27-Oct
7-Nov
18-Nov
29-Nov
10-Dec
21-Dec

0
20-Feb 21-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 26-Feb
WPI Inflation (%) 10 Yr Yield (%)

Source: Bloomberg
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 4

Vikas Ahuja SECTOR UPDATE

+91 22 6911 3439
vikas.ahuja@antiquelimited.com
Indian IT services
Takeaways from US banking results—No visible
improvement in tech spending by US banks
After the crisis witnessed by US regional lenders in March last year, large
US banks have demonstrated resilience, boasting robust balance sheets. As
the trajectory of interest rates will become favorable during the year, there is
potential for margins to stabilize suggested by recent commentary of large
US banks. However, despite this most banks are working with the
assumption that CY24 will be similar to CY23, which means we may not see
any material improvement in tech spending. This is in line with the
commentary by many large IT service providers that they have not seen a
material improvement in CY24 tech budgets.
During 4QCY23, large US banks' spending growth on technology moderated
marginally to 5.4% YoY versus 6.1% YoY growth during the quarter. Overall,
the US banking sector reported low single-digit growth in revenue (+1.8%
for the top 5 US banks). However, despite the slowdown in revenue, banks
continue to spend on technology, albeit at a lower pace as compared to the
past few years. All large banks witnessed an increase in tech spending. JP
Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citi Bank witnessed a tech
spending increase of 7%/ 6%/ 5%/ 2% YoY.

Table 1: US banks' revenue and technology spending trends

Revenue growth (YoY) 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23
Citi Bank 11.6% 5.4% -6.8% -10.2% -6.8% -11.6% -0.9% 3.1% -0.7% 12.4% 7.9% 5.8% 11.8% -1.0% 8.8% -3.1%
JP Morgan -3.2% 14.7% -0.5% 3.3% 14.5% -7.6% 1.7% 0.1% -4.8% 0.8% 10.4% 18.1% 24.8% 21.0% 15.0% 7.0%
Morgan Stanley -4.9% 30.9% 16.8% 25.6% 60.7% 10.0% 25.9% 6.5% -5.8% -11.0% -12.0% -12.2% -1.9% 2.5% 2.2% 1.2%
Bank Of America -1.0% -3.3% -10.8% -10.1% 0.2% -3.9% 11.9% 9.8% 1.8% 5.7% 7.6% 11.2% 13.0% 11.1% 2.7% -10.5%
Goldman Sachs -0.7% 40.5% 29.5% 17.9% 102.5% 15.7% 26.2% 7.6% -26.9% -22.9% -12.0% -16.2% -5.5% -8.2% -1.3% 6.8%
Wells Fargo -18.0% -17.4% -12.2% -9.7% 2.0% 13.6% -2.5% 16.4% -1.9% -15.9% 3.9% -3.9% 16.9% 20.5% 6.6% 2.2%
Average -3.1% 6.9% -2.2% -0.5% 16.7% 0.2% 7.5% 6.6% -5.8% -4.0% 3.0% 3.5% 12.6% 13.7% 9.0% 1.8%
Note: JP Morgan revenue growth for the last 3 quarters is ex First Republic acquisition

Tech Spending (YoY) 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23
Citi Bank 0.2% 1.0% 6.1% 9.6% 7.5% 8.8% 5.6% 2.8% 8.9% 9.1% 7.4% 13.1% 5.5% 11.7% 5.2% 2.4%
JP Morgan 9.1% 8.9% 2.8% 0.8% -2.3% -3.9% -3.5% -5.6% -6.3% -4.5% -4.3% -8.3% -7.5% -4.6% 0.8% 6.8%
Morgan Stanley 5.8% 9.5% 10.6% 22.9% 30.2% 29.9% 27.9% 19.5% 13.1% 12.0% 10.9% 12.0% 10.4% 8.1% 8.4% 5.8%
Bank Of America 3.9% 9.3% 14.6% 21.8% 17.9% 14.5% 6.2% 4.6% 8.1% 6.0% 9.2% 12.0% 10.2% 7.1% 8.4% 1.9%
Goldman Sachs 12.2% 19.0% 20.1% 10.7% 16.8% 7.5% 16.8% 26.1% 13.1% 19.7% 15.6% 11.9% 9.9% 8.6% 2.0% 4.6%
Wells Fargo 0.0% 19.2% 8.4% -0.6% 19.5% 6.7% -6.3% -1.3% 3.8% -2.0% 7.7% 9.1% 5.3% 18.5% 22.2% 19.3%
Average 5.5% 8.4% 7.5% 8.3% 9.1% 6.7% 3.7% 2.4% 3.8% 3.8% 4.8% 5.8% 3.3% 6.1% 6.4% 5.7%

Tech spending as %
of total revenue 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23
Citi Bank 8.3% 8.8% 10.9% 12.3% 9.6% 10.8% 11.6% 12.2% 10.5% 10.5% 11.6% 13.1% 9.9% 11.9% 11.2% 13.8%
JP Morgan 9.1% 7.9% 8.8% 8.9% 7.8% 8.2% 8.3% 8.4% 7.7% 7.7% 7.2% 6.5% 5.7% 5.5% 6.0% 6.2%
Morgan Stanley 5.8% 4.4% 5.3% 5.1% 4.7% 5.2% 5.3% 5.7% 5.6% 6.5% 6.7% 7.3% 6.3% 6.9% 7.1% 7.7%
Bank Of America 5.3% 5.7% 6.6% 7.0% 6.2% 6.7% 6.2% 6.7% 6.6% 6.8% 6.3% 6.8% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 7.7%
Goldman Sachs 3.7% 2.6% 3.2% 2.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.9% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.8% 4.5% 3.8% 4.4% 4.0% 4.4%
Wells Fargo 4.0% 4.3% 4.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.1% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.7% 5.3%
PNC Financial services 6.6% 7.4% 6.8% 7.0% 6.9% 7.0% 6.8% 8.5% 7.1% 6.9% 6.2% 6.4% 6.2% 6.6% 6.6% 6.8%
Average 6.6% 6.1% 6.9% 7.3% 6.2% 6.5% 6.7% 7.0% 6.8% 7.0% 6.8% 7.1% 6.2% 6.6% 6.6% 7.4%

Source: Company, Antique

Technology spend ratio improved on lower topline growth

Technology spend as a percentage of revenue for banks saw an uptick at 7.4% even as
topline growth for large banks remains tepid. Revenue growth of large banks increased by
2% YoY in 4QCY23 versus a 6% increase in technology expenditure. Although the single-
digit increase in tech spending was largely led by an increase in insourcing, in our view. The
medium-term outlook remains positive as banks will continue to invest in technology to gain
market share. Large banks such as JP Morgan have been able to gain market share over
regional banks in the recent past with the help of better technologies.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 5

Exhibit 1: Technology spend at 7% of banks' revenue in 4QCY23

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3% 3Q06
2Q07
1Q08
4Q08
3Q09
2Q10
1Q11
4Q11
3Q12
2Q13
1Q14
4Q14
3Q15
2Q16
1Q17
4Q17
3Q18
2Q19
1Q20
4Q20
3Q21
2Q22
1Q23
4Q23
Tech Spend/Total Revenue Average Tech spend/revenues ratio
Source: Company, Antique

Banking vertical underperforms for many IT services companies

The banking vertical of IT companies have been underperforming post the crisis witnessed by
regional lenders in the United States in March last year. However, during the last quarter
ending December 2023, the outlook on bank spending has improved as some large service
vendors expect spending to improve in coming quarters. TCS believes BFSI will be able to
register growth from 4QFY24 onwards and the spending momentum should improve in coming
quarters coupled with some of the deals that were won should ramp-up in Q4FY24/Q1FY25.
However, Infosys said in the last quarter that Inflation, uncertain macro and delay decision-
making continues to impact the financial services sector and it does not expect a meaningful
pick-up in next few quarters.

Table 2: BFSI vertical revenue of top IT companies

Banking vertical (YoY) 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22 3QFY22 4QFY22 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24
TCS -1.3% -4.9% -1.1% 2.4% 13.3% 19.3% 17.0% 17.9% 12.9% 13.9% 13.1% 11.1% 9.1% 3.0% -0.5% -3.0%
Infosys 5.7% 2.1% 2.9% 12.0% 15.6% 22.6% 20.5% 15.5% 14.1% 12.1% 11.5% 5.5% 0.4% -4.2% -7.3% -5.9%
Wipro -1.3% -6.9% -3.3% -2.5% 0.6% 31.3% 42.9% 47.4% 48.7% 24.3% 14.4% 9.6% 3.6% -3.4% -9.5% -13.2%
HCLT 1.5% 0.0% -2.5% -0.5% 3.6% 8.8% 6.3% 13.5% 10.2% 16.4% 15.4% 8.8% 9.6% 14.4% 12.5% 12.9%
CTSH 1.8% -4.3% -2.2% -11.4% -1.7% 4.8% 4.3% 18.8% 6.0% 5.1% 1.6% 1.4% -1.4% -4.8% -0.3% -4.2%
Average 1.3% -2.8% -1.2% 0.0% 6.3% 17.4% 18.2% 22.6% 18.4% 14.4% 11.2% 7.3% 4.3% 1.0% -1.0% -2.7%

Source: Company, Antique

Our View
In the near term pressure will remain on cost for global companies, including technology
spends. Budgets are most likely to remain flat in coming quarters, which means we may see
some cuts on street growth estimates for FY25 which is currently building in a normalized
growth of ~8% for Tier 1 IT vendors. 3Q commentary also suggests that the exit rate during
4Q would most likely to be weak be well. LTIM and TechM are our key buys among the large-
cap IT companies. We maintain HOLD rating on TCS and Infosys because of its relative
expensive valuation, but like the stock on a medium to long-term basis. Within mid-caps, we
remain constructive on Mpahsis.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 6

Table 3: Valuation summary

Company Reco CMP TP Return Revenue M. Cap USD revenue growth (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (USD bn) (USD bn) FY24e FY25e FY26e
TCS Hold 4,000 3,900 (2.5) 27.9 174.6 3.5 7.6 9.3
Infosys Hold 1,655 1,675 1.2 18.2 82.9 1.9 7.7 9.7
HCL Tech Buy 1,649 1,650 0.1 12.6 54.0 4.4 9.9 9.6
Wipro Buy 527 550 4.4 11.2 33.2 (4.5) 5.2 8.4
Tech Mahindra Buy 1,304 1,500 15.0 6.6 15.4 (4.6) 7.1 9.8
LTIMindtree Hold 5,479 6,350 15.9 4.1 19.6 4.4 9.6 13.6
Coforge Buy 6,510 6,900 6.0 1.0 4.9 12.3 13.3 13.6
Mphasis Buy 2,639 3,000 13.7 1.7 6.0 (6.8) 11.8 13.5
Cyient Hold 2,072 1,950 (5.9) 0.7 2.8 15.0 11.8 13.0
LTTS Hold 5,421 5,000 (7.8) 1.0 6.9 17.2 13.0 12.6
Persistent Sys Hold 8,332 7,875 (5.5) 1.0 7.7 14.0 14.8 15.9
Firstsource Buy 207 230 11.1 0.8 1.7 0.7 10.3 10.2
Zensar Buy 533 640 20.0 0.6 1.5 (2.5) 7.2 10.4
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 7

Abhijeet Kundu SECTOR UPDATE

+91 22 6911 3430
abhijeet.kundu@antiquelimited.com

Dhiraj Mistry
FMCG
+91 22 6911 3434
dhiraj.mistry@antiquelimited.com Low base and RM softening to aid HPC margins
As per our analysis, prices across agri-commodities and crude & crude
derivatives have remained broadly benign. In agri-commodities, barring
sugar and coffee (up 11% and 10% YoY), prices of most commodities have
remained stable or have been marginally deflationary. During the quarter,
wheat prices have declined 11% from the peak in Jan’24. Notably, crude
derivative prices have remained stable sequentially. Home & personal care
(HPC) companies should benefit from moderation in inflation and price hikes
taken over the past few quarters. Liquid paraffin (LLP) prices have softened,
which should benefit the hair oil and cosmetics category. Our analysis tells
us that most companies in 4QFY24 should witness gross margin expansion
of 200–400 bps with the largest beneficiaries being Nestle, Jyothy Lab, GCPL,
HUL, and Marico. Post 4QFY24, margin expansion would be restricted due
to base normalization and price cuts/ increase in promotional activities by
companies to drive volume growth. From our FMCG universe, we prefer
companies with volume-led growth which should drive re-rating. At current
levels, our preferred picks are GCPL and Jyothy Labs.
Sugar and coffee are inflationary; wheat prices moderating, while other agri prices remain
stable
Compared to last year, most agri-commodity prices have declined (except sugar and coffee),
which should help FMCG companies like Nestle, Britannia, Marico, and Tata Consumer.
Current wheat prices are down 10% from the previous quarter. However, during the current
quarter, wheat prices have fallen by 12% from their peak in January 2024 and are down 4%
YoY on a quarterly basis. Now, barley prices have dropped sequentially and is stabilizing,
down 17% YoY. This development should majorly benefit United Breweries, Nestle India.
Milk SMP (skimmed milk powder) prices have dropped 20% YoY during 4QFY24. We expect
milk prices to remain stable with good production during the flush season (winter). SMP
prices are down 9% QoQ. Notably, sugar prices have moved up by 11% YoY. Coffee prices
have moved up by 10% YoY/ 7.5% QoQ, which may impact Nestle and HUL. We expect
copra prices to remain stable with the start of the harvest season.
Palm oil prices are lower by 7.5% YoY during 4QFY24, however, the current price is up 7%
from the previous quarter’s average. As per our understanding, the competitive intensity
remains high in the soap category where companies have reduced product prices/ increased
promotional activities. Other edible oil prices, like sunflower and groundnut oil, also remain
deflationary compared to last year. Notably, the prices of edible oil are stabilizing on a
sequential basis.
Low base to aid margin expansion of HPC companies
For detergents, soda ash continues its downward trend with price falling by 20% YoY/ 2%
QoQ while the price of Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) is down 7% YoY /4% QoQ. There is a
step-up in the competitive intensity from regional/ local players in detergents. Notably, despite
the global geopolitical tensions, crude prices are down 2% YoY/ 4% QoQ. HDPE (packaging
material) prices have fallen 8% YoY, while it has risen 2% QoQ. Stable crude prices are likely
to benefit most HPC companies and should help in margin expansion during the quarter.
Among paint companies, Asian Paints’ gross margin should stabilize while Kansai Nerolac
should witness improvement benefiting from a low base. Over the last year, margins have
continued to improve due to stable crude prices, while Ti02 price has also fallen by 12%
YoY/ 2% QoQ.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 8

Table 1: Summary of commodity prices

Source: Industry, Bloomberg, Company

Table 2: Gross margin of FMCG companies

4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22 3QFY22 4QFY22 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 YoY (bps) QoQ (bps)
Bajaj Consumer Care 61.3 59.3 59.6 56.0 56.8 55.1 52.3 53.6 54.7 55.4 55.1 53.9 29 -127
Dabur 48.7 48.1 48.8 48.3 47.4 45.9 45.4 45.5 45.8 46.6 48.3 48.6 310 29
Britannia 40.5 38.7 37.5 37.9 38.0 36.9 38.9 43.7 44.9 41.9 42.9 43.9 21 98
Colgate 67.7 69.1 66.8 66.6 66.8 66.3 63.8 65.9 66.9 68.4 68.8 72.2 631 341
Emami 62.7 66.0 68.9 67.4 62.4 62.6 66.6 65.9 63.1 65.4 70.1 68.8 291 -131
GCPL 55.7 52.2 49.8 50.7 49.5 46.6 47.9 51.1 52.9 53.7 54.9 55.9 474 100
Hindustan Unilever 52.6 50.4 51.6 52.1 49.5 47.4 45.8 47.5 48.7 49.9 52.7 51.5 401 -124
Jyothy Labs 45.6 43.3 40.1 41.6 41.4 39.9 40.5 43.1 45.7 47.9 49.2 49.8 666 55
Marico 44.1 41.0 42.5 43.7 44.5 45.0 43.6 44.9 47.4 50.0 50.5 51.3 634 80
Nestle 58.7 57.2 56.0 57.3 55.8 54.4 53.0 55.2 54.1 55.3 56.8 58.8 365 202
ITC 54.3 52.6 57.2 51.3 53.1 51.0 57.0 58.9 58.6 59.5 57.3 58.4 -44 113
United Spirits 43.9 44.6 44.2 44.1 41.7 40.9 39.5 40.6 45.4 43.6 43.4 43.4 286 0
Radico Khaitan 48.4 47.5 45.9 46.2 42.7 43.6 41.6 41.3 40.6 43.6 44.1 41.8 52 -230
Asian Paints 43.2 38.4 34.7 36.8 38.7 37.7 35.7 38.6 42.5 42.9 43.4 43.6 504 24
Kansai Nerolac 34.4 34.3 28.9 31.4 28.0 29.9 28.6 30.2 31.6 35.3 35.7 36.2 598 51
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 9

Table 3: Valuation table

Adj. Adj.
Up Sales Sales EBITDA EBITDA Adj. PAT PAT Adj. EV/
TP side (INR growth EBITDA growth margin PAT growth margin EPS EBITDA P/E RoE RoCE
Companies Year (INR) CMP (%) Reco mn) (YoY %) (INR mn) (YoY %) (%) (INR mn) (YoY %) ( %) (INR) (x) (x) % %
FY22 2,731 2,394 14 Hold 5,11,930 11 1,25,030 10 24.4 87,240 10 17.0 37.12 44 64 18 22
FY23 5,91,440 16 1,36,320 9 23.0 97,200 11 16.4 41.36 40 58 20 24
HUVR FY24e 6,08,821 3 1,44,085 6 23.7 1,03,030 6 16.9 43.84 38 55 20 25
FY25e 6,65,922 9 1,61,532 12 24.3 1,15,325 12 17.3 49.07 34 49 22 28
FY26e 7,35,186 10 1,80,300 12 24.5 1,28,352 11 17.5 54.62 30 44 24 30
FY22 617 535 15 Buy 1,08,887 14 22,538 13 20.7 18,242 8 16.8 10.33 42 52 23 27
FY23 1,15,299 6 21,641 (4) 18.8 17,072 (6) 14.8 9.66 44 55 20 23
DABUR FY24e 1,24,544 8 24,622 14 19.8 18,778 10 15.1 10.63 38 50 20 23
FY25e 1,38,142 11 27,654 12 20.0 21,565 15 15.6 12.21 34 44 21 24
FY26e 1,52,902 11 30,980 12 20.3 24,202 12 15.8 13.70 30 39 21 25
FY22 499 411 21 Buy 5,63,413 24 1,89,337 22 33.6 1,50,578 22 26.7 12.22 28 34 25 32
FY23 6,60,433 17 2,39,445 26 36.3 1,86,804 24 28.3 15.03 22 27 29 37
ITC FY24e 6,64,880 1 2,48,910 4 37.4 2,03,075 9 30.5 16.28 21 25 29 37
FY25e 7,40,212 11 2,69,677 8 36.4 2,22,337 9 30.0 17.83 20 23 30 39
FY26e 8,23,445 11 3,00,607 11 36.5 2,49,904 12 30.3 20.04 17 21 32 41
CY21 2,619 2,579 2 Hold 1,47,406 10 35,960 10 24.4 23,845 11 16.2 24.73 67 104 116 159
CY22 1,68,970 15 38,145 6 22.6 24,925 5 14.8 25.85 63 100 110 152
NEST CY23e 1,91,263 13 45,662 20 23.9 30,996 24 16.2 32.15 53 80 112 152
CY24e 2,16,113 13 52,383 15 24.2 35,454 14 16.4 36.77 46 70 103 141
CY25e 2,39,859 11 58,620 12 24.4 39,756 12 16.6 41.23 41 63 95 130
FY22 2,246 2,546 (12) Hold 50,998 5 15,659 4 30.7 10,783 4 21.1 39.64 44 64 74 116
FY23 52,262 2 15,470 (1) 29.6 10,584 (2) 20.3 38.91 44 65 61 97
CLGT FY24e 56,523 8 18,603 20 32.9 13,093 24 23.2 48.14 36 53 72 114
FY25e 60,859 8 19,832 7 32.6 13,898 6 22.8 51.10 34 50 70 108
FY26e 65,541 8 21,724 10 33.1 15,270 10 23.3 56.14 31 45 69 105
FY22 1,300 1,251 4 Buy 1,22,765 11 24,917 2 20.3 17,480 7 14.2 17.10 47 73 17 22
FY23 1,33,160 8 25,392 2 19.1 17,460 (0) 13.1 17.08 46 73 14 19
GCPL FY24e 1,41,675 6 31,059 22 21.9 21,934 26 15.5 21.46 38 58 15 20
FY25e 1,60,507 13 36,523 18 22.8 25,411 16 15.8 24.86 32 50 16 22
FY26e 1,80,086 12 41,550 14 23.1 29,533 16 16.4 28.89 28 43 17 25
FY22 577 530 9 Hold 95,120 18 16,780 6 17.6 12,250 6 12.9 9.49 39 56 37 46
FY23 97,640 3 18,100 8 18.5 12,808 5 13.1 9.92 36 53 36 43
MRCO FY24e 96,900 (1) 20,884 15 21.6 14,970 17 15.4 11.60 31 46 37 44
FY25e 1,08,690 12 22,935 10 21.1 16,558 11 15.2 12.83 28 41 36 44
FY26e 1,19,508 10 25,564 11 21.4 18,620 12 15.6 14.42 25 37 36 43
FY22 3,362 2,986 13 Hold 2,91,013 34 48,036 (1) 16.5 31,463 0 10.8 32.80 65 91 24 28
FY23 3,44,886 19 62,598 30 18.2 41,553 32 12.0 43.32 50 69 28 33
APNT FY24e 3,59,784 4 79,569 27 22.1 56,141 35 15.6 58.53 39 51 32 38
FY25e 3,96,702 10 83,462 5 21.0 58,070 3 14.6 60.54 37 49 28 34
FY26e 4,40,865 11 93,660 12 21.2 64,500 11 14.6 67.24 33 44 27 33
FY22 400 302 32 Buy 59,489 25 6,716 (20) 11.3 4,007 (26) 6.7 4.96 40 61 10 13
FY23 70,810 19 7,939 18 11.2 4,864 21 6.9 6.02 33 50 11 15
KNPL FY24e 74,545 5 10,827 36 14.5 7,245 49 9.7 8.96 23 34 14 20
FY25e 81,498 9 12,177 12 14.9 8,209 13 10.1 10.16 20 30 14 19
FY26e 89,101 9 13,694 12 15.4 9,233 12 10.4 11.42 18 26 15 20
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 10

Table 3: Valuation table (continued...)

Adj. Adj.
Up Sales Sales EBITDA EBITDA Adj. PAT PAT Adj. EV/
TP side (INR growth EBITDA growth margin PAT growth margin EPS EBITDA PE RoE RoCE
Companies Year (INR) CMP (%) Reco mn) (YoY %) (INR mn) (YoY %) (%) (INR mn) (YoY %) ( %) (INR) (x) (x) % %
FY22 1,350 1,166 16 Buy 94,237 19 15,527 57 16.5 10,209 121 10.8 14.1 52 83 23 38
FY23 1,03,737 10 14,187 (9) 13.7 8,808 (14) 8.5 12.1 56 96 16 30
UNSP FY24e 1,07,487 4 17,193 21 16.0 11,619 32 10.8 16.0 46 73 18 33
FY25e 1,18,816 11 19,966 16 16.8 13,685 18 11.5 18.8 39 62 19 32
FY26e 1,31,389 11 23,500 18 17.9 16,347 19 12.4 22.5 33 52 20 33
FY22 1,945 1,625 20 Buy 28,680 20 4,022 (2) 14.0 2,522 (7) 8.8 18.9 58 86 13 16
FY23 31,428 10 3,584 (11) 11.4 2,044 (19) 6.5 15.3 67 106 10 11
RDCK FY24e 42,101 34 5,271 47 12.5 2,711 33 6.4 20.3 46 80 12 14
FY25e 51,156 22 7,443 41 14.5 4,450 64 8.7 33.3 32 49 17 19
FY25e 58,079 14 9,020 21 15.5 5,772 30 9.9 43.2 26 38 19 22
FY22 527 458 15 Hold 31,872 11 9,524 8 29.9 10,373 55 32.5 23.51 23 19 54 36
FY23 34,057 7 8,628 (9) 25.3 7,612 (27) 22.4 17.25 25 27 35 33
HMN FY24e 35,308 4 9,562 11 27.1 7,735 2 21.9 17.53 22 26 32 36
FY25e 38,044 8 10,458 9 27.5 8,406 9 22.1 19.05 20 24 31 33
FY26e 41,140 8 11,615 11 28.2 9,305 11 22.6 21.09 17 22 31 33
FY22 581 470 24 Buy 21,965 15 2,482 (21) 11.3 1,619 (27) 7.4 4.41 69 107 11 15
FY23 24,860 13 3,159 27 12.7 2,327 44 9.4 6.34 54 74 16 21
JYL FY24e 27,798 12 4,933 56 17.7 3,920 68 14.1 10.67 34 44 23 31
FY25e 31,421 13 5,595 13 17.8 4,464 14 14.2 12.16 30 39 23 31
FY26e 36,282 15 6,585 18 18.1 5,334 19 14.7 14.52 25 32 24 32
FY22 256 239 7 Buy 8,784 (4) 1,785 (27) 20.3 1,745 (22) 19.9 11.83 14 20 22 26
FY23 9,499 8 1,414 (21) 14.9 1,398 (20) 14.7 9.80 18 24 17 21
BAJAJCON FY24e 9,922 4 1,638 16 16.5 1,633 17 16.5 11.45 13 21 16 20
FY25e 10,838 9 1,886 15 17.4 1,831 12 16.9 12.83 11 19 15 18
FY26e 11,884 10 2,131 13 17.9 2,025 11 17.0 14.20 9 17 15 18
FY22 1,800 1,647 9 Buy 2,42,054 48 14,870 56 6.1 8,063 18 3.3 27.26 40 60 16 17
FY23 3,15,247 30 12,806 (14) 4.1 8,864 10 2.8 24.49 46 67 11 13
PATANJAL FY24e 3,15,009 (0) 13,157 3 4.2 8,379 (5) 2.7 23.15 42 71 8 11
FY25e 3,41,521 8 23,683 80 6.9 16,981 103 5.0 46.92 23 35 15 18
FY26e 3,70,691 9 29,666 25 8.0 21,717 28 5.9 60.01 18 27 17 20
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 11

Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 FY25 FY25 1m 12m

AGROCHEM & FERTILIZERS

Bayer Cropscience Hold 5,922 6,380 8 266.1 3.2 8.7 10.0 11.5 193.5 223.7 255.0 30.6 26.5 23.2 22.3 19.2 16.9 8.5 33.3 43.4 1 33
Coromandel Intl. Buy 1,063 1,340 26 312.8 3.8 17.4 20.1 21.9 59.3 68.5 74.4 17.9 15.5 14.3 11.5 10.0 8.8 2.9 19.9 28.2 -6 20
Dhanuka Agritech Buy 1,167 1,280 10 53.2 0.6 2.4 2.8 3.2 52.6 62.3 70.9 22.2 18.7 16.5 15.3 12.6 10.9 3.6 20.7 27.9 -3 74
Paradeep Phosphates Buy 79 120 52 64.4 0.8 0.5 6.8 8.0 0.6 8.3 9.8 124.7 9.5 8.0 16.7 6.8 5.6 1.6 17.8 16.3 -3 45
PI Industries Buy 3,695 4,060 10 560.6 6.8 15.9 15.3 17.6 104.3 100.8 115.9 35.4 36.7 31.9 26.9 27.2 22.8 5.7 16.6 19.7 14 19
Rallis India Hold 246 260 6 47.8 0.6 1.6 2.3 2.8 8.4 11.6 14.6 29.4 21.2 16.8 14.3 11.0 8.8 2.4 11.9 15.5 -5 22
Sharda Cropchem Hold 361 400 11 32.5 0.4 0.0 2.2 3.0 0.5 24.1 33.6 666.5 15.0 10.7 14.9 5.0 3.7 1.4 9.4 12.1 -10 -23
Sumitomo Chemical India Buy 385 480 25 192.0 2.3 3.3 4.8 6.0 6.7 9.6 12.0 57.4 40.1 32.1 43.4 30.1 24.1 6.2 16.7 22.5 -1 -13
UPL Buy 489 710 45 367.2 4.4 -5.5 29.4 44.3 -7.4 39.2 59.0 -66.3 12.5 8.3 9.9 5.1 4.1 1.3 10.8 13.2 -9 -34
AUTO & AUTO ANC.
Apollo Tyres Buy 526 616 17 334.2 4.0 20.5 20.7 23.0 32.3 32.6 36.2 16.3 16.1 14.5 7.8 7.1 6.1 2.0 13.3 14.7 2 65
Ashok Leyland Buy 174 232 33 510.9 6.2 23.0 26.0 30.3 7.8 8.9 10.3 22.2 19.6 16.9 13.1 11.8 10.2 4.7 25.0 27.7 3 23
Bajaj Auto Hold 8,448 7,417 (12) 2,392.3 28.9 72.0 81.5 94.5 254.3 288.0 334.0 33.2 29.3 25.3 26.0 22.4 18.9 40.2 28.9 38.3 11 119
Balkrishna Industries Sell 2,290 2,264 (1) 442.7 5.3 11.7 14.6 17.5 60.8 75.4 90.6 37.7 30.4 25.3 21.6 18.0 15.5 4.8 16.7 16.6 -9 12
Ceat Buy 2,880 3,180 10 116.5 1.4 7.1 7.2 8.0 175.6 178.2 198.5 16.4 16.2 14.5 8.1 7.8 6.9 2.5 16.5 17.5 2 97
Eicher Motors Buy 3,953 4,764 21 1,082.3 13.1 38.2 45.0 54.0 139.3 164.2 196.9 28.4 24.1 20.1 23.7 19.6 15.9 5.3 23.8 27.9 9 23
Hero MotoCorp Buy 4,496 5,389 20 898.9 10.8 36.0 40.8 47.8 180.2 204.0 239.3 24.9 22.0 18.8 16.8 14.8 12.6 4.6 21.7 28.3 2 82
TVS Motors Sell 2,162 1,729 (20) 1,027.2 12.4 19.2 24.2 30.8 40.4 50.9 64.8 53.5 42.5 33.4 30.9 25.3 20.3 10.9 28.4 31.2 11 96
Mahindra & Mahindra Buy 1,930 1,846 (4) 2,399.8 29.0 92.7 96.3 104.6 74.7 77.7 84.4 25.8 24.8 22.9 19.0 16.6 14.8 10.1 17.9 21.8 18 51
Maruti Suzuki India Buy 11,467 13,538 18 3,605.3 43.5 115.2 135.8 157.2 381.4 449.6 520.7 30.1 25.5 22.0 23.0 18.3 15.4 4.4 18.4 23.4 16 32
Sansera Engineering Buy 1,022 1,155 13 54.8 0.7 2.0 2.7 3.4 37.2 51.6 64.2 27.4 19.8 15.9 13.2 10.5 8.7 3.3 18.2 19.1 -1 37
Suprajit Engineering Buy 428 517 21 59.2 0.7 1.6 2.5 3.2 11.9 18.4 23.5 35.8 23.3 18.2 18.5 13.7 11.0 4.1 18.6 19.7 9 21
BUILDING MATERIALS
Apollo Pipes Buy 731 750 3 28.8 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 13.7 17.9 23.6 53.2 40.8 31.0 26.5 19.4 15.1 3.8 9.8 13.9 0 48
Astral Hold 2,084 2,020 (3) 559.9 6.8 5.9 7.6 9.0 21.9 28.1 33.6 95.0 74.2 62.0 56.9 45.1 37.8 14.4 21.3 26.7 16 49
Cera Sanitaryware Buy 7,548 9,310 23 98.2 1.2 2.3 2.7 3.2 178.5 209.4 245.0 42.3 36.0 30.8 31.1 26.5 22.5 6.5 19.2 24.9 -8 24
Finolex Industries Hold 216 210 (3) 133.8 1.6 4.4 5.3 6.3 7.2 8.6 10.3 30.0 25.2 21.0 22.3 19.6 16.7 2.1 8.8 10.4 -4 27
Greenlam Industries Buy 540 670 24 68.8 0.8 1.3 1.5 2.7 10.6 11.8 20.9 51.0 45.9 25.8 27.0 19.5 14.4 5.7 13.1 12.3 5 74
Kajaria Ceramics Buy 1,259 1,500 19 200.5 2.4 4.5 5.5 6.8 28.0 34.5 42.8 44.9 36.5 29.4 26.7 21.9 18.0 7.0 20.2 25.3 -6 19
Prince Pipes and Fittings Buy 583 840 44 64.4 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.9 16.9 21.2 26.1 34.5 27.5 22.3 19.1 16.0 12.9 3.7 14.4 18.9 -15 4
Somany Ceramics Buy 673 820 22 27.6 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.7 22.3 31.9 41.3 30.2 21.1 16.3 13.5 10.9 9.1 3.2 16.4 16.1 0 22
Supreme Industries Hold 4,088 4,690 15 519.3 6.3 10.4 12.4 14.9 81.9 97.6 117.3 49.9 41.9 34.8 33.5 28.3 23.6 8.8 22.7 27.5 2 50
CEMENT
ACC Buy 2,675 3,000 12 502.3 6.1 19.6 23.7 27.3 104.4 126.2 145.2 25.6 21.2 18.4 14.3 11.3 9.6 2.8 14.2 19.3 8 55
Ambuja Cement Buy 609 615 1 1,208.5 14.6 26.0 33.5 39.7 10.6 13.6 16.1 57.6 44.7 37.7 25.0 19.9 16.8 3.1 9.3 10.0 9 76
Birla Corp Buy 1,743 1,750 0 134.2 1.6 4.2 6.1 7.5 54.7 79.6 97.4 31.9 21.9 17.9 11.8 10.0 9.0 1.9 9.2 9.9 25 101
Dalmia Bharat Buy 2,114 2,550 21 396.4 4.8 9.1 13.1 17.5 49.1 71.0 94.4 43.1 29.8 22.4 14.0 11.6 10.1 2.2 7.7 10.0 -4 12
Grasim Industries Buy 2,187 2,540 16 1,461.0 17.6 18.6 18.9 22.1 28.2 28.8 33.6 77.5 76.0 65.1 56.0 46.6 41.0 2.9 3.9 5.3 5 39
Heidelberg Hold 210 210 (0) 47.6 0.6 2.0 2.6 3.1 8.9 11.6 13.5 23.7 18.1 15.5 11.6 9.3 8.1 3.1 17.6 20.5 -7 23
JK Cement Buy 4,396 4,500 2 339.7 4.1 8.7 10.5 11.7 112.2 136.5 151.6 39.2 32.2 29.0 17.6 15.2 13.8 5.4 18.1 16.7 5 58
JK Lakshmi Cement Buy 933 1,000 7 109.7 1.3 4.8 7.0 8.0 40.7 59.7 67.7 22.9 15.6 13.8 11.5 9.1 8.2 2.9 20.2 18.9 0 28
Nuvoco Vistas Hold 339 410 21 121.0 1.5 1.4 3.6 5.0 3.9 10.2 14.1 87.3 33.3 24.1 9.8 8.4 7.6 1.3 4.0 6.8 -2 -9
Orient Cement Hold 240 230 (4) 49.2 0.6 1.8 2.6 3.1 8.8 12.6 15.2 27.2 19.0 15.9 11.0 8.3 7.4 2.5 14.0 16.7 -13 109
Shree Cements Buy 26,100 32,300 24 941.7 11.4 22.2 27.9 32.0 613.9 773.8 885.6 42.5 33.7 29.5 20.5 16.6 14.3 4.1 12.9 16.3 -7 3
Ramco Cement Buy 872 1,060 22 206.1 2.5 3.8 6.5 8.1 16.0 27.3 34.3 54.4 31.9 25.4 15.7 12.5 11.1 2.6 8.6 9.9 -10 21
UltraTech Cement Buy 9,930 11,200 13 2,866.7 34.6 74.3 97.6 121.1 257.8 332.0 411.8 38.5 29.9 24.1 21.5 17.1 14.0 4.3 15.1 19.4 0 38
FMCG & RETAIL
Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Hold 225 255 13 213.8 2.6 -4.2 0.8 3.2 -4.4 0.9 3.4 -51.4 254.6 66.2 14.7 11.3 9.1 7.1 2.8 9.3 -7 -2
Arvind Fashions Buy 489 600 23 65.2 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.1 3.9 9.9 15.6 124.0 49.4 31.4 12.8 10.0 7.7 5.3 10.6 20.0 3 78
Asian Paints Hold 2,868 3,362 17 2,751.4 33.2 56.1 58.1 64.5 58.5 60.5 67.2 49.0 47.4 42.7 34.5 32.7 28.9 12.5 28.2 33.8 -3 5
Avenue Supermarts Hold 3,850 4,243 10 2,505.6 30.2 26.7 33.5 40.2 41.3 51.8 62.0 93.3 74.4 62.1 61.4 49.2 41.0 11.1 14.9 20.1 3 10
Bajaj Consumer Care Buy 238 256 7 34.1 0.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 11.4 12.8 14.2 20.8 18.6 16.8 15.3 12.8 10.7 2.6 14.8 18.0 10 42
Colgate Palmolive Hold 2,521 2,246 (11) 685.7 8.3 13.1 13.9 15.3 48.1 51.1 56.1 52.4 49.3 44.9 36.2 33.8 30.7 33.0 69.7 108.3 1 72
Dabur India Buy 529 617 16 937.9 11.3 18.8 21.6 24.2 10.6 12.2 13.7 49.8 43.4 38.6 37.8 33.3 29.2 8.7 20.9 24.5 0 -1
Devyani International Buy 162 227 40 195.7 2.4 1.3 2.3 3.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 149.1 85.0 54.1 30.7 21.9 16.5 15.5 20.1 46.7 -9 9
Emami Hold 470 527 12 206.8 2.5 7.7 8.4 9.3 17.5 19.1 21.1 26.8 24.6 22.3 20.6 18.4 16.1 7.3 31.1 33.0 -5 23
Godrej Consumer Buy 1,253 1,300 4 1,281.3 15.5 21.9 25.4 29.5 21.5 24.9 28.9 58.4 50.4 43.4 40.9 34.5 30.0 7.9 16.3 22.2 8 35
Hindustan Unilever Hold 2,404 2,731 14 5,649.0 68.2 103.0 115.3 128.4 43.8 49.1 54.6 54.8 49.0 44.0 38.6 34.4 30.7 10.8 22.3 27.5 -1 -3
ITC Buy 409 499 22 5,107.1 61.6 203.1 222.3 249.9 16.3 17.8 20.0 25.1 23.0 20.4 19.6 17.9 16.0 6.6 30.1 38.7 -10 7
Jubilant Foodworks Sell 487 444 (9) 321.0 3.9 3.0 4.5 6.5 4.6 6.8 9.9 106.7 71.7 49.3 28.4 23.2 18.5 12.9 19.1 36.7 -4 10
Jyothy Labs Buy 476 581 22 174.7 2.1 3.9 4.5 5.3 10.7 12.2 14.5 44.6 39.1 32.7 34.7 30.1 25.1 8.5 23.2 31.1 -13 149
Kansai Nerolac Buy 299 400 34 241.9 2.9 7.2 8.2 9.2 9.0 10.2 11.4 33.4 29.5 26.2 20.6 17.9 15.6 4.1 14.3 19.4 -10 7
Kewal Kiran Buy 752 1,028 37 46.3 0.6 1.5 1.8 2.1 24.6 29.0 34.3 30.6 25.9 21.9 24.4 20.1 16.6 5.7 22.1 27.7 0 98
Marico Hold 526 577 10 680.1 8.2 15.0 16.6 18.6 11.6 12.8 14.4 45.3 41.0 36.4 31.7 28.6 25.4 14.0 36.2 43.6 0 5
Nestle Hold 2,584 2,619 1 2,491.3 30.1 31.0 35.5 39.8 32.1 36.8 41.2 80.4 70.3 62.7 54.4 47.4 42.4 65.5 102.8 141.4 4 38
Patanjali Foods Buy 1,637 1,800 10 592.6 7.2 8.4 17.0 21.7 23.2 46.9 60.0 70.7 34.9 27.3 43.4 23.6 18.2 5.0 15.1 18.3 4 81
Restaurant Brands Asia Buy 109 150 37 54.3 0.7 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 -1.1 -0.8 0.0 -96.9 -135.4 5,189.8 21.1 16.5 12.4 3.0 -2.2 4.9 -7 14
Radico Khaitan Buy 1,625 1,945 20 217.2 2.6 2.7 4.4 5.8 20.3 33.3 43.2 80.0 48.8 37.6 42.5 30.0 24.4 7.9 17.4 19.1 -2 39
Sapphire Foods India Buy 1,484 1,671 13 94.5 1.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 10.0 20.7 25.3 148.6 71.8 58.6 19.6 14.3 11.3 6.5 9.5 22.5 4 24
Shoppers Stop Buy 740 831 12 81.3 1.0 0.6 1.5 2.0 5.5 13.5 18.3 134.0 55.0 40.5 11.5 9.2 8.0 18.4 33.5 17.3 5 14
Titan Co Ltd Buy 3,623 4,100 13 3,216.0 38.8 34.8 48.4 60.7 39.2 54.5 68.3 92.4 66.4 53.0 60.6 43.3 35.2 17.2 29.4 30.5 -4 51
Trent Hold 3,845 3,385 (12) 1,366.7 16.5 9.8 13.3 16.8 27.6 37.3 47.1 139.3 103.0 81.6 73.9 56.1 45.0 25.6 24.8 38.0 19 194
United Spirits Buy 1,147 1,350 18 834.1 10.1 11.6 13.7 16.3 16.0 18.8 22.5 71.7 60.9 51.0 47.1 40.2 33.7 10.8 18.9 32.5 5 54
Vedant Fashion Buy 986 1,422 44 239.5 2.9 4.2 4.9 6.0 17.1 20.3 24.6 57.5 48.5 40.1 34.5 28.9 23.8 11.6 26.2 34.0 -12 -15
V-Mart Retail Buy 1,980 2,647 34 39.2 0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.5 -35.8 -5.2 25.4 -55.3 -379.4 77.8 16.9 12.1 9.0 5.1 -1.3 6.4 -4 -19
Westlife Foodworld Hold 802 877 9 125.0 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 5.7 8.1 11.3 141.0 99.0 71.0 32.3 26.6 21.8 17.9 19.4 37.1 -3 20
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 12

Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 FY25 FY25 1m 12m

INDUSTRIALS & ENGINEERING

ABB Buy 5,296 6,058 14 1,122.3 13.5 12.5 14.9 19.9 58.9 70.5 93.9 89.9 75.1 56.4 71.4 59.2 43.6 16.1 23.1 31.6 12 69
Bharat Dynamics Buy 1,886 2,038 8 345.7 4.2 6.3 9.2 11.7 34.6 50.2 63.7 54.6 37.5 29.6 47.3 29.0 22.1 8.2 23.6 24.0 13 97
Bajaj Elec. Hold 1,004 1,050 5 115.6 1.4 1.7 2.6 3.2 15.1 22.7 27.6 66.4 44.3 36.3 40.3 25.4 20.5 5.2 12.1 14.4 -3 0
BEML Hold 3,073 2,937 (4) 128.0 1.5 2.9 3.6 4.9 69.4 86.7 117.5 44.3 35.4 26.2 29.3 23.1 17.4 4.3 12.8 12.4 -4 126
Bharat Electronics Buy 204 221 8 1,493.0 18.0 36.3 41.7 50.4 5.0 5.7 6.9 41.2 35.8 29.6 30.1 25.6 20.7 8.2 24.6 25.4 8 114
BHEL Buy 228 230 1 794.1 9.6 5.2 19.1 30.8 1.5 5.5 8.8 153.8 41.6 25.8 103.0 29.1 17.9 2.8 6.8 10.4 4 233
Blue Star Hold 1,256 1,149 (9) 258.3 3.1 4.0 5.4 6.8 20.5 27.8 35.1 61.1 45.2 35.7 38.8 30.1 24.5 13.4 32.5 33.5 18 72
Cochin Shipyard Hold 859 890 4 226.0 2.7 6.9 5.4 5.2 26.1 20.6 19.8 32.9 41.8 43.5 23.0 28.8 31.7 4.2 10.5 13.8 -1 270
Crompton Consumer Hold 288 320 11 184.4 2.2 4.4 5.5 6.8 6.9 8.7 10.7 41.8 33.2 27.0 26.2 21.3 17.4 5.9 18.6 19.3 -6 -4
Cummins India Hold 2,734 2,750 1 757.7 9.1 13.8 16.0 19.1 49.8 57.9 68.8 54.8 47.2 39.8 48.0 40.4 33.1 11.6 25.8 32.6 26 74
Engineers India Hold 216 238 10 121.5 1.5 3.4 3.9 4.7 5.4 6.3 7.5 40.2 34.6 28.9 34.4 27.9 21.7 4.8 16.3 18.9 -7 199
Garden Reach Shipbuilders Buy 813 1,005 24 93.1 1.1 2.6 3.7 3.8 22.4 31.9 33.5 36.3 25.5 24.3 32.3 19.2 17.0 4.7 19.9 22.1 -11 92
GE T&D Hold 869 712 (18) 222.4 2.7 1.7 2.6 4.1 6.8 10.1 15.8 127.6 85.9 54.9 75.8 55.0 36.9 14.8 18.8 26.4 38 722
Jupiter Wagons Ltd Hold 376 362 (4) 155.0 1.9 3.3 4.6 6.0 7.9 11.1 14.5 47.5 33.8 26.0 31.8 23.4 17.9 7.4 24.6 29.5 -5 299
Havells India Hold 1,424 1,458 2 892.4 10.8 12.8 16.3 20.7 20.5 26.0 33.1 69.4 54.7 43.0 46.1 36.3 28.5 10.0 19.8 26.1 10 21
Hindustan Aeronautics Buy 3,050 3,618 19 2,039.6 24.6 53.4 56.0 69.1 79.9 83.7 103.4 38.2 36.4 29.5 25.9 23.4 19.0 6.7 19.5 20.4 5 141
Hitachi Energy Buy 5,881 5,936 1 249.3 3.0 1.2 3.6 6.3 29.4 84.5 148.4 199.8 69.6 39.6 85.1 40.7 25.8 16.0 25.1 32.5 0 80
Honeywell Automation Hold 38,118 39,125 3 337.0 4.1 5.0 5.8 6.9 569.8 653.5 782.5 66.9 58.3 48.7 52.2 44.7 36.5 8.5 15.4 21.3 -1 5
KEC International Buy 671 746 11 172.5 2.1 3.8 8.1 12.0 14.9 31.4 46.6 45.1 21.4 14.4 14.8 11.3 8.7 3.7 18.5 21.8 9 42
Kirloskar Pneumatic Buy 718 810 13 46.5 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.2 19.6 27.3 33.8 36.6 26.3 21.3 22.9 16.5 12.9 4.4 18.0 23.7 14 21
Kirloskar Oil Engines Buy 935 997 7 135.5 1.6 3.3 4.1 5.3 22.7 28.3 36.2 41.2 33.0 25.8 25.0 20.1 15.7 4.9 15.7 20.6 36 197
Lakshmi Machine Works Hold 14,779 14,861 1 157.9 1.9 4.1 4.7 6.1 384.8 443.4 571.6 38.4 33.3 25.9 29.9 24.6 18.4 5.4 17.2 22.5 12 39
Linde India Buy 5,530 7,055 28 471.6 5.7 4.9 7.5 10.0 57.9 88.3 117.6 95.5 62.6 47.0 59.0 40.8 30.7 11.6 20.1 24.7 -3 43
Larsen & Toubro Buy 3,470 4,223 22 4,770.2 57.6 139.4 178.5 240.6 99.5 127.5 171.8 34.9 27.2 20.2 23.4 19.3 14.7 4.5 17.5 13.1 -3 63
Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Buy 2,092 2,833 35 421.9 5.1 14.4 16.6 20.5 71.4 82.1 101.8 29.3 25.5 20.5 28.4 23.9 17.1 6.6 28.7 40.3 -11 193
Siemens Buy 4,566 5,656 24 1,626.0 19.6 23.2 28.1 39.0 65.0 78.9 109.6 70.2 57.8 41.7 52.5 43.2 30.9 10.5 19.3 26.2 9 41
Thermax Hold 3,728 3,389 (9) 444.2 5.4 5.7 7.2 9.5 50.5 63.8 84.7 73.9 58.5 44.0 58.0 45.1 33.3 8.5 15.4 19.1 20 74
Titagarh Rail Systems Buy 982 1,252 27 132.3 1.6 2.7 4.5 6.4 21.5 35.4 50.1 45.7 27.7 19.6 29.9 19.5 13.9 4.7 18.5 26.7 -12 357
Voltas Hold 1,097 1,112 1 363.1 4.4 3.6 7.8 9.4 10.9 23.5 28.5 100.5 46.7 38.5 71.0 34.1 28.2 5.8 13.0 21.9 9 23
INFRASTRUCTURE
Ashoka Buildcon Buy 179 200 12 50.3 0.6 2.7 4.0 5.1 9.7 14.2 18.1 18.4 12.7 9.9 10.6 9.2 7.2 1.0 9.4 10.2 11 138
Dilip Buildcon Hold 453 373 (18) 66.2 0.8 3.9 3.7 4.5 28.3 27.2 32.6 16.0 16.7 13.9 6.4 6.2 5.8 1.2 7.4 13.1 21 134
IRB Infra Buy 67 84 24 405.2 4.9 9.4 11.3 13.8 1.6 1.9 2.3 42.9 35.9 29.4 16.0 15.5 13.2 2.6 7.6 6.3 32 140
IRCON International Buy 232 281 21 218.1 2.6 7.4 8.2 8.8 7.8 8.7 9.3 29.6 26.7 24.8 28.9 23.5 19.6 3.5 13.8 9.2 -6 344
KNR Constructions Ltd. Buy 267 315 18 75.1 0.9 3.8 4.2 4.6 13.7 14.8 16.2 19.6 18.0 16.5 10.9 10.1 9.4 2.2 13.1 18.3 2 7
NBCC Sell 140 30 (79) 251.5 3.0 4.1 4.9 5.4 2.3 2.7 3.0 60.9 50.9 47.0 59.0 46.9 38.8 9.7 20.6 18.1 22 323
NCC Ltd. Buy 253 282 11 159.1 1.9 6.8 10.0 12.0 10.8 15.9 19.1 23.4 15.9 13.2 10.9 8.5 7.5 2.0 13.3 20.9 30 184
RITES Buy 778 787 1 186.9 2.3 4.4 6.0 5.9 18.2 25.0 24.7 42.8 31.1 31.5 29.4 19.8 20.1 6.5 21.8 23.1 14 130
Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd Hold 267 233 (13) 556.6 6.7 13.7 14.5 16.2 6.6 6.9 7.8 40.5 38.5 34.3 44.5 40.0 35.2 6.0 16.5 9.3 -12 323
Welspun Ent. Buy 319 447 40 44.2 0.5 3.2 3.3 4.9 23.2 24.0 35.3 13.7 13.3 9.0 10.7 9.1 6.3 1.5 11.9 12.3 -4 156
IT
Cyient Hold 2,086 1,950 (7) 231.2 2.8 7.5 9.0 10.2 60.3 67.6 79.3 34.6 30.9 26.3 17.6 14.8 12.7 5.7 23.0 24.5 3 116
FirstSource Sol. Buy 205 230 12 143.2 1.7 5.3 6.8 7.6 7.6 9.7 10.9 26.9 21.2 18.8 16.1 13.6 11.8 3.7 18.2 15.3 5 77
HCL Tech Buy 1,650 1,650 0 4,477.0 54.0 158.5 181.8 203.1 58.3 66.5 74.0 28.3 24.8 22.3 17.3 15.1 13.4 6.5 26.6 33.7 6 51
Infosys Hold 1,660 1,675 1 6,890.5 83.1 245.5 276.9 316.8 59.2 66.8 76.5 28.0 24.8 21.7 17.6 15.4 13.1 7.1 30.4 42.3 -1 7
LTI Mindtree Hold 5,466 6,350 16 1,618.9 19.5 47.0 54.1 62.8 158.6 182.7 212.3 34.5 29.9 25.8 24.3 20.7 17.6 7.2 25.9 34.5 -1 13
L&T Technology Services Hold 5,431 5,000 (8) 574.3 6.9 13.2 15.4 17.5 125.2 146.4 165.4 43.4 37.1 32.8 28.4 24.3 21.2 8.9 25.6 32.3 1 46
Mphasis Buy 2,677 3,000 12 505.7 6.1 15.7 18.0 21.1 83.2 95.5 111.9 32.2 28.0 23.9 20.2 17.7 15.0 5.4 20.2 28.2 6 22
Coforge Ltd Buy 6,593 6,900 5 407.4 4.9 8.8 11.1 13.3 143.4 180.4 215.0 46.0 36.6 30.7 26.3 21.6 18.0 10.2 29.9 37.7 6 51
Persistent Sys Hold 8,425 7,875 (7) 648.1 7.8 11.2 14.3 16.9 148.3 188.6 223.5 56.8 44.7 37.7 37.4 30.2 25.5 11.6 28.3 36.1 1 72
TCS Hold 4,001 3,900 (3) 14,476.1 174.7 455.0 504.5 568.2 124.5 138.2 155.6 32.1 29.0 25.7 21.5 19.4 17.0 12.1 42.9 53.9 5 18
TeamLease Buy 3,007 4,100 36 50.4 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.0 77.0 110.4 120.2 39.1 27.2 25.0 32.0 22.6 19.3 4.5 18.0 19.0 -1 19
Tech Mahindra Buy 1,298 1,500 16 1,267.6 15.3 29.1 49.9 60.3 31.3 56.6 68.3 41.4 23.0 19.0 22.8 14.8 12.5 4.9 20.7 28.9 -2 16
Wipro Buy 533 550 3 2,784.4 33.6 109.3 129.7 142.3 20.5 24.8 27.2 26.0 21.5 19.6 14.6 12.8 11.4 3.2 15.2 18.3 13 35
Zensar Technologies Buy 532 640 20 120.5 1.5 6.3 6.1 6.9 28.1 26.8 30.5 18.9 19.8 17.5 10.6 10.0 8.2 2.8 15.1 20.9 -8 82

contd...
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 13

Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 FY25 FY25 1m 12m

METALS & MINING

APL Apollo Tubes Buy 1,455 1,747 20 403.7 4.9 7.9 11.1 15.1 28.4 40.1 54.6 51.2 36.2 26.6 32.6 23.7 18.2 9.0 27.5 30.6 -2 19
Hindalco Industries Buy 505 593 17 1,135.0 13.7 95.8 99.5 107.5 43.1 44.7 48.3 11.7 11.3 10.4 6.6 6.3 5.9 1.0 9.2 10.4 -11 22
Hindustan Zinc Hold 310 297 (4) 1,310.9 15.8 85.6 92.3 97.8 20.2 21.8 23.2 15.3 14.2 13.4 8.9 8.2 7.6 7.3 55.6 44.0 -1 -3
Indian Hume Pipe Buy 316 286 (10) 16.6 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 9.8 13.8 21.1 32.3 22.9 14.9 15.5 13.4 10.1 1.9 8.8 11.2 28 133
Jindal Steel & Power Buy 771 875 13 786.8 9.5 44.5 64.8 77.9 44.0 64.1 77.1 17.5 12.0 10.0 8.4 6.5 5.5 1.5 13.6 15.6 8 38
JSW Steel Hold 809 808 (0) 1,977.8 23.9 123.8 151.9 175.1 51.2 62.8 72.4 15.8 12.9 11.2 8.8 7.6 6.9 2.3 19.5 15.9 -1 18
JTL Industries Buy 260 296 14 44.5 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.4 6.9 10.4 14.1 37.8 24.9 18.4 27.4 18.5 13.6 6.3 29.1 36.3 0 64
Kirloskar Ferrous Buy 556 668 20 77.5 0.9 2.2 4.1 7.7 15.5 29.5 55.4 35.9 18.9 10.0 15.9 10.5 6.3 3.7 21.3 21.7 -6 32
MOIL Buy 275 386 40 56.0 0.7 2.9 5.4 7.9 14.5 26.5 39.0 19.0 10.4 7.0 10.0 5.5 3.4 1.9 20.0 27.0 -19 83
NALCO Buy 157 177 13 288.2 3.5 15.1 16.7 26.7 8.2 9.1 14.5 19.1 17.3 10.8 9.9 8.9 5.8 2.0 11.7 14.7 11 100
NMDC Buy 235 269 14 688.5 8.3 63.4 71.9 82.8 21.6 24.5 28.2 10.9 9.6 8.3 7.4 6.3 5.2 2.3 25.4 33.9 8 110
SAIL Hold 124 119 (4) 513.0 6.2 29.1 48.5 56.5 7.0 11.7 13.7 17.6 10.6 9.1 8.2 6.3 5.7 0.9 8.4 8.8 4 50
Tata Steel Buy 143 149 4 1,780.8 21.5 48.1 121.2 168.7 3.9 9.9 13.7 36.5 14.5 10.4 10.7 7.3 6.0 1.6 12.1 11.5 7 30
Venus Pipes Buy 1,664 1,689 1 33.8 0.4 0.1 1.3 1.6 6.8 64.4 76.8 244.2 25.8 21.7 48.8 17.1 15.0 6.3 27.7 30.7 17 131
Vedanta Buy 265 318 20 986.0 11.9 26.5 118.4 137.9 7.1 31.8 37.1 37.2 8.3 7.2 4.6 3.9 3.4 3.1 38.1 24.8 1 -10
OIL & GAS
BPCL Buy 627 631 1 1,360.4 16.4 265.0 124.1 123.7 124.5 58.3 58.1 5.0 10.8 10.8 3.9 6.9 7.6 1.8 17.3 16.2 32 97
GAIL Hold 182 162 (11) 1,197.3 14.4 97.9 89.0 84.5 14.7 13.4 12.7 12.4 13.6 14.4 9.8 10.3 10.5 1.8 13.9 13.5 10 76
Gujarat Gas Buy 567 654 15 390.4 4.7 10.2 14.7 19.6 14.9 21.4 28.4 38.1 26.5 20.0 22.2 15.8 12.1 4.6 18.4 21.9 3 12
HPCL Buy 542 530 (2) 768.4 9.3 148.4 83.0 79.6 104.6 58.5 56.1 5.2 9.3 9.7 4.9 6.8 6.8 1.8 19.7 13.8 26 150
IGL Hold 431 481 12 301.6 3.6 17.5 18.4 19.5 25.1 26.3 27.8 17.2 16.4 15.5 11.1 10.2 9.3 3.1 20.2 24.6 6 -2
Indian Oil Corp Buy 178 179 1 2,506.5 30.2 389.7 229.3 236.4 28.3 16.6 17.2 6.3 10.7 10.3 5.5 7.7 7.2 1.4 14.1 11.6 24 129
Mahanagar Gas Hold 1,506 1,574 4 148.8 1.8 12.4 10.7 10.7 125.9 108.2 108.6 12.0 13.9 13.9 7.0 7.7 7.4 2.8 21.1 27.3 10 71
Oil India Buy 570 591 4 618.1 7.5 71.7 61.4 64.6 66.2 56.7 59.5 8.6 10.1 9.6 7.2 6.9 6.3 1.5 15.6 16.9 41 134
ONGC Buy 270 292 8 3,394.8 41.0 384.6 421.7 421.6 30.6 33.5 33.5 8.8 8.0 8.1 4.8 4.3 4.1 1.1 14.6 17.1 15 74
Petronet LNG Buy 286 291 2 429.5 5.2 35.6 34.3 35.4 23.7 22.9 23.6 12.1 12.5 12.1 7.2 8.0 8.3 2.5 20.4 22.4 12 34
Reliance Industries Buy 2,975 2,904 (2) 20,126.8 242.9 804.2 986.71,080.4 105.7 121.3 128.2 28.1 24.5 23.2 14.1 11.9 10.6 2.2 10.9 9.6 10 37
PHARMA & HEALTHCARE
Alkem Hold 5,062 4,716 (7) 605.2 7.3 19.9 22.4 25.6 166.7 187.4 214.4 30.4 27.0 23.6 23.3 20.2 17.2 5.0 19.9 23.8 2 54
Alembic Pharma Hold 1,047 835 (20) 205.9 2.5 5.3 6.0 7.5 27.2 30.3 38.0 38.5 34.6 27.6 22.2 18.5 15.3 3.9 11.9 14.9 11 97
CIPLA Sell 1,470 1,076 (27) 1,186.7 14.3 30.5 33.9 38.8 37.8 42.0 48.2 38.9 35.0 30.5 23.9 21.3 18.3 4.1 12.4 17.2 7 53
Concord Biotech Buy 1,504 1,689 12 157.4 1.9 2.9 3.9 5.0 27.7 37.4 48.2 54.3 40.3 31.2 38.2 28.1 21.6 8.9 24.0 30.9 9
Dr Reddys Sell 6,441 5,030 (22) 1,074.3 13.0 30.8 37.1 42.7 184.5 222.4 256.0 34.9 29.0 25.2 20.7 17.0 14.4 3.8 13.7 18.4 10 43
IOL Chemicals Buy 412 524 27 24.2 0.3 2.1 2.5 2.6 36.5 41.8 43.7 11.3 9.8 9.4 7.0 5.9 5.3 1.3 13.5 18.2 -5 36
JB Chemicals Hold 1,647 1,500 (9) 255.6 3.1 5.9 7.5 8.6 38.4 48.5 55.6 42.9 33.9 29.6 26.1 21.0 18.3 3.6 23.4 27.9 -3 67
Dr Lal Pathlabs Sell 2,418 1,670 (31) 201.8 2.4 3.7 4.2 4.6 44.1 49.8 55.7 54.9 48.5 43.4 31.4 27.6 24.3 45.5 20.3 25.4 1 25
Laurus Labs Hold 395 333 (16) 213.1 2.6 2.9 5.4 7.1 5.3 9.9 13.3 74.0 39.8 29.8 24.7 17.1 14.0 4.5 11.8 13.2 4 25
Lupin Buy 1,605 1,732 8 730.9 8.8 17.0 29.1 31.5 37.4 64.0 69.3 42.9 25.1 23.2 22.5 15.0 13.4 4.5 19.2 22.9 10 143
Mankind Pharma Buy 2,070 2,220 7 829.3 10.0 17.7 22.0 25.4 44.3 54.9 63.4 46.7 37.7 32.6 33.0 26.3 22.3 7.5 22.0 27.5 2
Metropolis Healthcare Sell 1,695 1,234 (27) 86.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 27.4 33.8 41.1 61.8 50.1 41.2 28.3 24.8 21.5 7.1 15.0 19.6 9 27
Solara Active Pharma Sell 473 300 (37) 17.0 0.2 -2.5 0.4 0.7 -70.3 11.5 20.0 -6.7 41.2 23.7 -50.8 10.9 9.3 1.4 3.4 6.7 22 30
Torrent Pharma Buy 2,624 2,955 13 888.1 10.7 16.4 20.6 25.0 48.4 61.0 73.9 54.2 43.0 35.5 27.3 23.3 20.2 11.2 28.0 30.0 6 77
Zydus Life Science Hold 943 677 (28) 954.1 11.5 29.2 29.5 30.8 28.8 29.1 30.4 32.7 32.4 31.0 22.6 21.2 19.7 4.3 14.0 16.8 28 102
REALTY
Arvind SmartSpaces Buy 602 637 6 27.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 11.4 17.8 27.6 52.7 33.8 21.8 32.4 22.0 11.5 4.3 13.7 19.7 26 140
Brigade Enterprise Buy 1,001 1,344 34 231.3 2.8 5.4 7.7 23.4 33.3 42.8 30.1 - 18.0 15.1 - 25.4 18.4 16.9 3 114
Century Textile & Industries Buy 1,492 2,233 50 166.6 2.0 5.0 5.6 8.9 45.2 49.9 80.1 33.0 29.9 18.6 18.3 16.1 11.7 3.5 12.2 13.4 11 146
DLF Buy 903 887 (2) 2,235.0 27.0 42.4 53.8 60.0 17.1 21.7 24.2 52.7 41.5 37.3 62.5 52.6 46.9 4.7 12.1 10.1 19 161
Godrej Properties Hold 2,463 2,549 4 684.7 8.3 6.4 5.6 17.2 22.9 20.2 61.7 107.7 121.9 39.9 199.7 108.4 57.1 5.2 4.7 12.5 6 128
Kolte Patil Buy 490 753 54 37.2 0.4 1.5 2.0 2.1 19.5 26.0 28.0 25.1 18.8 17.5 11.3 8.1 7.4 2.8 15.8 21.1 -8 80
Macrotech Developers Buy 1,115 1,188 6 1,075.8 13.0 18.9 30.3 34.8 19.7 31.4 36.1 56.7 35.5 30.9 38.2 25.9 21.0 5.9 18.3 20.1 6 210
Nexus Select Trust Buy 129 135 5 195.4 2.4 8.5 9.9 11.1 5.6 6.5 7.3 23.0 19.8 17.6 15.0 13.8 12.9 1.2 5.9 7.3 0
Oberoi Realty Hold 1,375 1,189 (14) 500.0 6.0 26.5 28.0 33.8 72.8 77.1 92.9 18.9 17.8 14.8 16.0 14.8 12.2 2.8 17.2 17.0 5 63
Phoenix Buy 2,865 2,345 (18) 511.8 6.2 9.5 12.3 13.7 53.4 68.7 76.7 53.7 41.7 37.3 28.6 22.7 20.4 4.9 12.5 11.3 25 118
Prestige Estates Buy 1,223 1,371 12 490.2 5.9 11.9 13.9 16.2 29.8 34.7 40.5 41.1 35.3 30.2 20.2 17.8 15.6 3.9 11.1 12.2 2 206
Sobha Buy 1,584 1,946 23 150.3 1.8 2.0 3.4 8.1 20.8 35.5 85.8 76.2 44.6 18.5 32.5 24.2 14.2 4.6 11.0 14.6 15 174
Sunteck Realty Buy 489 600 23 71.6 0.9 2.5 2.9 2.6 17.5 20.4 18.3 27.9 23.9 26.6 - - - 2.1 9.3 11.7 9 58
TEXTILE
Arvind Ltd Buy 288 358 24 75.3 0.9 3.8 6.0 8.1 14.4 22.9 31.0 19.9 12.5 9.3 9.6 7.3 5.6 1.7 14.9 16.2 -8 266
KPR Mills Hold 779 886 14 266.4 3.2 9.2 10.8 12.1 26.9 31.7 35.4 28.9 24.6 22.0 19.8 17.0 15.3 5.1 22.4 26.1 1 28
Welspun Living Buy 158 214 35 153.8 1.9 7.0 9.8 13.2 7.1 10.0 13.4 22.4 15.9 11.8 11.5 8.6 6.7 2.8 18.8 18.6 15 131
contd...
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 14

Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 FY25 FY25 1m 12m

UTILITIES
CESC Buy 129 150 16 171.2 2.1 15.9 17.8 23.1 12.0 13.4 17.4 10.8 9.6 7.4 14.1 9.3 7.2 1.6 10.9 8.7 -3 79
COAL India Buy 442 508 15 2,725.8 32.9 353.5 345.1 360.7 57.4 56.0 58.5 7.7 7.9 7.6 7.5 7.4 6.8 2.8 40.0 19.8 14 104
Indian Energy Exchange Sell 147 107 (27) 131.1 1.6 3.3 3.9 4.3 3.7 4.3 4.9 39.2 34.0 30.2 32.2 29.4 26.5 12.4 39.2 39.7 8 2
JSW Energy Buy 524 567 8 861.3 10.4 21.4 25.4 33.2 13.0 15.5 20.2 40.2 33.9 25.9 17.5 13.7 11.4 3.8 11.8 8.8 7 147
NHPC Buy 92 93 1 926.2 11.2 42.7 49.2 55.5 4.2 4.8 5.4 22.1 19.2 17.0 24.9 19.1 17.6 2.2 12.0 5.6 11 139
NTPC Buy 338 364 8 3,273.6 39.5 181.4 187.6 214.7 18.7 19.3 22.1 18.0 17.5 15.2 11.5 11.0 10.0 2.0 12.1 9.4 7 97
Power Grid Buy 288 312 8 2,676.7 32.3 153.1 178.5 200.9 16.5 19.2 21.6 17.5 15.0 13.3 10.9 9.7 9.0 2.6 18.6 11.7 17 78
PTC India Buy 201 224 12 59.4 0.7 3.3 4.2 4.8 11.3 14.3 16.3 17.8 14.0 12.3 11.7 7.9 6.8 1.3 9.6 12.6 -13 122
SJVN Ltd Buy 120 162 35 473.0 5.7 12.7 14.4 22.0 3.2 3.7 5.6 37.1 32.7 21.5 27.6 18.0 13.6 3.1 9.7 6.7 3 278
Torrent Power Hold 1,116 1,149 3 536.4 6.5 20.0 28.2 32.1 41.6 58.7 66.7 26.8 19.0 16.7 13.0 10.6 9.7 3.8 21.4 18.0 12 125
Tata Power Buy 378 450 19 1,209.1 14.6 37.8 42.2 51.0 11.8 13.2 15.9 32.0 28.7 23.7 16.6 16.1 13.6 3.7 12.8 6.9 4 87
MIDCAPS - OTHER
CCL Products Buy 639 840 31 85.0 1.0 2.6 3.4 4.5 19.2 25.4 33.6 33.2 25.2 19.0 21.4 16.7 13.3 4.5 19.1 14.7 0 16
EPL Ltd. Buy 190 300 58 60.4 0.7 2.6 3.5 4.7 8.1 10.9 14.9 23.5 17.3 12.7 9.1 7.3 5.8 2.7 16.0 19.6 -4 18
Ganesha Ecosphere Buy 1,093 1,540 41 27.7 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.6 16.0 50.6 61.4 68.2 21.6 17.8 20.8 11.9 10.8 2.3 11.6 12.4 6 25
Gravita India BUY 975 1,410 45 67.3 0.8 2.2 3.0 3.9 31.6 43.6 56.6 30.9 22.4 17.2 22.1 15.9 12.7 6.5 33.1 31.2 3 106
Indian Hotels Hold 580 450 (22) 825.2 10.0 12.4 15.3 17.3 8.7 10.8 12.2 66.5 53.8 47.5 38.6 32.2 28.7 8.1 16.0 16.2 22 87
Chalet Hotels Buy 850 850 0 174.6 2.1 2.4 3.5 4.1 11.8 17.3 20.0 72.3 49.3 42.5 30.7 25.3 22.8 7.5 16.6 13.3 12 134
Mold-Tek Packaging Buy 863 1,010 17 28.6 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 19.9 25.5 33.6 43.3 33.8 25.7 22.5 18.3 14.6 4.3 13.3 11.8 2 -10
Raymond Buy 1,876 2,670 42 124.9 1.5 16.8 8.0 10.4 252.3 120.9 156.3 7.4 15.5 12.0 11.3 9.7 7.7 2.4 16.3 19.0 7 45
Solar Industries Hold 6,811 6,180 (9) 616.4 7.4 8.6 11.6 14.0 95.3 127.9 154.4 71.5 53.2 44.1 42.7 32.6 27.2 13.9 29.6 35.8 5 79
Varun Beverages Hold 1,536 1,300 (15) 1,996.1 24.1 25.4 33.1 41.5 19.5 25.5 31.9 78.6 60.3 48.1 44.8 35.7 29.7 16.8 31.5 30.4 22 138
Yatra Online Buy 169 198 17 26.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 4.8 8.2 217.6 35.1 20.4 - - - 10.1 33.7 26.9 -2

Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) BVPS (INR) P/BV (x)* NNPA Ratio (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoA (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 FY25 FY25 1m 12m

FINANCIALS
Axis Bank Buy 1,085 1,325 22 3,348.3 40.4 239.6 286.9 336.7 464.0 539.9 625.3 2.2 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 11.6 18.6 1.8 4 27
Bank of Baroda Buy 270 275 2 1,393.9 16.8 176.7 188.0 204.5 197.6 226.6 258.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.1 7.4 17.1 1.1 19 74
Canara Bank Buy 573 550 (4) 1,040.0 12.5 144.0 152.3 172.9 427.8 495.0 571.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 6.8 18.2 1.0 23 111
City Union Bank Buy 135 180 34 99.8 1.2 10.2 10.7 11.9 113.1 125.9 140.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 2.2 2.0 1.8 9.3 12.1 1.4 -5 0
DCB Bank Buy 131 180 37 41.0 0.5 5.1 6.5 7.4 151.2 169.7 190.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 6.3 13.0 1.0 -3 15
Equitas SFB Hold 102 120 18 115.3 1.4 8.0 9.3 12.2 51.2 57.5 65.8 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 12.4 15.1 1.8 -4 51
Federal Bank Buy 152 190 25 368.7 4.4 37.9 38.9 45.2 117.6 130.8 146.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 9.5 12.9 1.2 7 19
HDFC Bank^ Buy 1,422 2,000 41 10,803.5 130.4 647.2 746.9 883.3 561.8 637.8 707.9 2.2 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 14.4 18.6 1.9 -1 -10
ICICI Bank Buy 1,054 1,275 21 7,399.0 89.3 402.3 410.1 476.0 326.1 372.9 427.2 2.8 2.4 2.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 18.0 16.5 2.0 4 26
IndusInd Bank Buy 1,467 1,925 31 1,141.2 13.8 89.7 106.7 125.4 792.0 902.0 1,029.4 1.9 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 10.7 16.2 1.9 -3 36
Karur Vysya Bank Buy 179 215 21 142.7 1.7 15.4 16.9 18.7 123.8 142.5 163.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 8.5 15.7 1.5 -1 81
Kotak Mahindra Bank Buy 1,706 2,175 27 3,391.9 40.9 127.7 134.3 153.5 463.4 528.4 602.8 2.6 2.2 1.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 25.2 13.6 2.2 -4 1
Punjab National Bank Hold 125 100 (20) 1,374.7 16.6 80.0 147.0 157.3 88.8 99.5 110.2 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 9.4 14.2 0.9 19 163
State Bank of India Buy 759 750 (1) 6,772.9 81.7 524.7 603.7 679.4 346.6 400.7 461.6 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.8 11.2 17.1 0.9 24 46
South Indian Bank Hold 37 31 (16) 77.6 0.9 10.5 9.6 11.4 34.6 38.7 43.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 8.1 12.5 0.8 10 123
Ujjivan Small Bank Buy 53 68 28 104.4 1.3 12.3 12.2 13.0 26.8 33.0 39.7 2.0 1.6 1.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 8.5 20.2 2.5 -2 100
Union Bank of India Buy 147 155 6 1,090.7 13.2 139.3 150.0 163.2 117.7 132.2 148.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 7.3 16.2 1.0 5 120
*Adjusted for subsidiaries; ^ HDFCB Financials for FY24, FY25 and FY26 is for proforma merged entity

Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap VNB (INR bn) EVPS (INR) P/EV (x) P/VNB (x) RoEV (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 1m 12m

Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance Buy 576 760 32 1,239.6 15.0 36.1 42.6 49.8 220.1 255.9 297.7 2.6 2.3 1.9 22.9 17.6 13.2 17.2 0 19
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Buy 523 610 17 753.4 9.1 22.3 25.0 27.8 292.5 331.3 374.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 15.3 11.4 8.0 14.0 8 31
LIC of India Hold 1,041 1,080 4 6,585.3 79.5 106.2 118.1 128.3 1,100.5 1,217.9 1,346.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 NA NA NA 10.9 15 78
Max Life Insurance* Buy 925 1,180 28 319.3 3.9 18.9 22.0 25.5 574.4 682.7 809.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 17.0 12.9 9.4 19.5 5 33
SBI Life Insurance Buy 1,549 1,710 10 1,551.1 18.7 54.5 62.5 71.5 557.7 662.4 782.7 2.8 2.3 2.0 16.7 12.9 9.6 19.6 12 38
*Valuations after factoring 20% holdco discount
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 27 February 2024 | 15

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