Prepared by Alina Ivanova

COUNTRY PROFILE

Brazil
This review presents the analysis of the emissions of a country with explanations of
their drivers (with IPAT model) and climate policy of a country.

COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS
KEY INDICATORS 2023

Population, million 216,4

GDP per capita, US$ 10,413

Share of global GHG emissions, %* 1,3 %

Share of global GDP, % 2,5 %

GHG per capita, t CO₂e/cap* 2, 28

Share of fossil fuels in primary energy 6,9 %

supply, %

Share of coal in electricity production, % 1,2 % *year 2021

GDP = gross domestic product

GHG = greenhouse gas
Share of renewables in primary energy 93,1 % emissions (net emissions
supply, % including sinks from agriculture,
forestry, and other land uses)

IPAT MODEL

1994 - 1997 - 2000 - 2003 - 2006 - 2009 - 2012 - 2015 - 2018 -

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
The IPAT model expresses
Р 12,8 13,8 12,9 11,9 11,3 12,2 13,2 12,1 9,6
environmental impact (I) as the
А 14,2 2,7 6,0 33,2 29,5 45,5 -14,0 -13,3 3,9 product of three factors:
Т 25,9 16,7 -14,5 -20,9 -19,8 50,8 31,8 -50,1 5,8 population (P), affluence (A), and
technology (T).
 Prepared by Alina Ivanova

Population:
- From 1994 to 1997, population increased slightly from 12.8 to 13.8,
then decreased to 9.6 by 2018-2021.
- The trend shows some fluctuations but overall indicates a stable
impact.

Affluence:
- There are significant variations in affluence, with some periods showing
substantial increases (e.g., from 6.0 to 45.5 from 2000-2003 to
2009-2012) and others showing declines (e.g., from -14.0 to 13.3 from
2012-2015 to 2015-2018).

Technology:
- The trend shows variability in technological factors. Notably, there are
substantial changes in technology from one period to another, such as
the shift from -50.1 to 5.8 from 2015-2018 to 2018-2021.

According to the IPAT model, technology and wealth have the greatest
impact on the environment. Population growth is not the dominant factor in
environmental damage in Brazil.

GHG EMISSIONS PER CAPITA

GHG = greenhouse gas

emissions (net emissions
including sinks from agriculture,
forestry, and other land uses)

Greenhouse gas emissions per capita do not have a clear trend of increasing
or decreasing. Until 2014, this figure was rapidly increasing, but after that
there was a decline until 2020. Emissions are up again in 2021 compared to
the previous year.
 Prepared by Alina Ivanova

CLIMATE POLICY
Brazil's climate policy has evolved over the years in response to domestic
and international pressures, as well as recognition of the country's role as a
major emitter of greenhouse gases and custodian of the Amazon rainforest.

Total emissions across sectors (MtCO2e/year)

2000
Total emissions (excl. forestry),
historic and projected

1500
Max. emissions level under
mitigation targets

1000 Min. emissions level under

mitigation targets

Climate Action Tracker's 2°C

compatible and 1.5°C Paris
500 Agreement compatible emissions
range

Historical emissions/removals from

0 forestry

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Source: CAT

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) assesses

Brazil's Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDC) as "insufficient,"
meaning its goals are not aligned with the
aim of limiting global warming to below 2°
C, let alone to the more ambitious target of CLIMATE ACTION TRACKER (CAT)
1.5°C. The current projections for emissions EVALUATION OF NDC
under Brazil's policies no longer align with
its NDC target due to a significant increase critically highly
insufficient
2°C 1.5°C Paris role
insufficient insufficient compatible Agreement model
in deforestation rates, particularly in the compatible

Amazon region. This contradicts Brazil's Source: CAT

pledges made under the Paris Agreement,
including the commitment to achieve zero
illegal deforestation in the Brazilian
Amazonia by 2030.

KEY ASPECTS

Forest Conservation and Renewable Energy and

1 Deforestation Reduction 2 Low-Carbon Economy

Brazil has implemented various policies
and initiatives aimed at reducing
deforestation in the Amazon rainforest,
which is a significant source of
greenhouse gas emissions.
The Brazilian Amazon Fund, established
in 2008 to finance projects focused on
conservation, sustainable development,
and reducing deforestation in the
Amazon region
Brazil has long been a global leader in
renewable energy, particularly in the
use of hydropower for electricity
generation. The country has also
expanded its use of other renewable
sources such as wind, solar, and
bioenergy.
Various measures have been
implemented to encourage the
advancement and adoption of
renewable energy technologies. These
include tax breaks, guaranteed prices
for electricity fed into the grid,
competitive bidding processes, and set
goals for renewable energy usage.
 Prepared by Alina Ivanova

Climate Change Climate Change

3 Mitigation and Adaptation 4 Mitigation and Adaptation

Brazil has set targets for reducing Brazil actively participates in

greenhouse gas emissions, although
these targets have faced criticism for
not being ambitious enough. The
country ratified the Paris Agreement in
2016, committing to reduce its
emissions by 37% below 2005 levels by
2025, and to achieve a 43% reduction
by 2030.
international climate negotiations and
has been involved in shaping global
agreements such as the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris
Agreement.

Efforts to mitigate climate change

include measures to reduce emissions
from deforestation and forest
degradation (REDD+), improve energy
efficiency, promote sustainable
agriculture, and develop cleaner
transportation systems.

Source: CAT

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