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IN LEO
Proc. 2nd NEO and Debris Detection Conference, Darmstadt, Germany, 24-26 January 2023, published by the ESA Space Safety Programme Office
Ed. T. Flohrer, R. Moissl, F. Schmitz (http://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int, February 2023)
Table 1. Space Surveillance Stations Location
Location
St-1 10º N 180º E
St-2 0º N 20º W
St-3 65º N 20º W
St-4 90º S 0º E
St-5 35º N 136º E
St-6 51º N 7º E
St-7 30º S 71º W
St-8 70º N 20º E
St-9 30º N 86º W
St-10 7º S 72º E
2. STATISTICAL SPACE MODELLING OF LEO • Add losses from interfering emissions: Radar detec-
tion error is a random variable Xi : Ω Ñ R with E[Xi ]
“ µ ă 8 and var[Xi ]ř “ σ 2 ă 8. A reduced variable
In order to test the performance of each algorithm, syn- is defined as :X̂ “ n ni“1 Xi . By Center Limit The-
1
thetic data should be created to faithfully represent the orem (CLT), as n Ñ 8, X̂ Ñ Npµ, σ 2 {nq;
space environment. That implies creating a model to each
one of the parts involved in the scenario: the sensor (sta-
This study is focused on objects situated in LEO ranges,
tions), the mean (atmosphere and vacuum) and the target
and so [13] recommend the parameter physical properties
(debris). All these items are created in a virtual environ-
for a radar depicted in Table 2, which results on a statis-
ment based on statistics.
tical model with properties showed in Table 3
harm highly uncertain distribution. So the probability to returning the optimal MSE for xk assuming its previous
accept correct measurement in the gate becomes: step xk´1 and the observation yk are Gaussian random
ż γg variables [43].
PG “ χ 2 pγ, 3qdγ, (6)
0 An EKF is based on the following process: if a random
variable x has mean x̂ and covariance Qx and a nonlin-
in which the gate γg is the squares’ sum of n N(0,ST ) dis- ear function of it y “ gpxq has covariance Ry , the EKF is
tributed variables is a χ 2 pnq distributed with n degrees of initialized as:
freedom.
x̂0 “ Erx0 s, (8)
P0 “ Erpx0 ´ x̂0 qpx0 ´ x̂0 qT s, (9)
being λ a composite scaling parameter and L the dimen- Joint Probabilistic Data Association (JPDA) Track-
sion of augmented state, with each time update: ers based on Joint Probabilistic Data Association (JDPA)
assess the error covariance matrix and its state vector as-
Xkx|k´1 “ FrXkx´1 , Xkv´1 s, (22) sociated for each one of the items in catalogue. To do
2L
so. the algorithm apply a soft allocation when multiple
ÿ p x measurements commit to each track. Although it can be
x̂k´ “ Wi mqXi,k |k´1 , (23)
based on different logics, the employed JPDA performs
i“0
the weight sum (probabilistically determined) of all mea-
2L
ÿ p x x ´ T surements in the gate, averaging over detections with re-
Pk´ “ Wi cqrXi,k ´
|k´1 ´ x̂k srXi,k|k´1 ´ x̂k s , (24) lated probabilities.
i“0
Ykx|k´1 “ HrXkx|k´1 , Xkn´1 s, (25) The main goal of JPDA is merging all marginal poste-
2L
ÿ rior densities to calculate the marginal correlation prob-
ŷ´
p x abilities for all targets [17]. The evaluation of each joint
k “ Wi mqYi,k |k´1 , (26)
i“0
likelihood at a given time is [3]:
(27) m m m
h
ź ź ź
pk|kk pxk q “ gi j PD ¨ p1 ´ PD q ¨ β, (33)
j “1 j“1 j“1
where Wi is the weight of each sigma point. So, the mea-
surement updated equations are:
2L
ÿ where PD is the detection likelihood, gi j is the probability
p ´ T of observe j given the track i and β is the false alarm odds.
Pyy “ Wi cqrYi,k|k´1 ´ ŷ´
k srYi,k|k´1 ´ ŷk s , (28)
i“0 The first term represents the chance of assigning the track
2L i to the measurement j, the second indicates tracks as-
signed to no match while the last accounts for unassigned
ÿ p
Pxy “ Wi cqrXi,k|k´1 ´ x̂k´ srXi,k|k´1 ´ x̂k´ sT , (29)
i“0
observations. Then, the probability of observation i to be
´1 assigned to the track j is:
K “ Pxy Pyy , (30)
x̂k “ x̂k´ ` Kpyk ´ ŷ´ (31) N
k q,
ÿ h
´ T
pi j “ pk|kk pxk q, (34)
Pk “ Pk ´ KPyy K , (32) h“1
Figure 4. PF, EKF and UKF Principles [29]
Track-Oriented Multiple Hypothesis Tracker would not only evaluate the performance of the orbit de-
(TOMHT) Multiple Hypothesis algorithms evalu- termination part but also analyse the efficiency of the cor-
ates the probability of all the association hypotheses relation algorithms.
considering the association of measurements’ sequences.
As in JDPA, TOMHT calculates the probability of each
association as in (33) but in this case it would expand Optimal SubPattern Assignment (OSPA) OSPA can
each scenario independently, increasing the association be define as:
accuracy.
|X |
Its basic idea [34] is, in each update, to find the best as- 1 ÿ 1
OSPApX,Y q “ pmin d c pxi , yπ piq q p `c p p|Y |´|X|qq p ,
signments and prune all others, reducing them such that a |Y | i“1
maximum number of hypotheses are included in the pos- (35)
terior density. A primitive TOMHT is parametrized by
global hypotheses Hk , log-weights l hk , which are the nat- in which several errors are considered:
ural logarithm of the probability from hypothesis hk ; and
i,h
the local hypotheses from each object pk|kk pxki q.
• Localisation error is measured as the distance be-
tween x and y vectors,using the Mahalanobis modi-
TOMHT is designed to delay difficult data association to fied distance [5].
future data income. Besides the complexity of these ap-
proaches require a challenging system of tracking main- • Assignment error chosen is the Auction proposed
tenance, filtering and mitigation strategies. TOMHT by [4] although, as with localisation, this function
shows better performances than JPDA or GNN via higher is customizable.
computational cost and a complex implementation.
3. RESULTS
Table 8. Tracker Parameters
GNN JPDA TOMHT
Table 5. IOD Method Errors Confirmation Threshold [7 10] [7 10] 70
Deletion Threshold [2 3] [2 3] -7
posRMSE [m] velRMSE [m/s]
β [1/m3 s] 5e-3 - 5e-3
Gibbs - 67.7089
Bin Volume [m3 ] 1.2337e+13 1.2337e+13 1.2337e+13
Gauss - 69.28
Clutter Density [1/m3 ] - 8.1e-20 -
Herrick-Gibbs - 73.93
• 1st scenario is consisting the simplest case with just From results shown in previous section, several conclu-
four stations and simplified debris dynamics and sions could be extracted:
population (100). This scenario is used in order to
quickly configure the best approach for the filter se-
lection and the main hyper-parameters of the algo- • Probabilistic data association (JPDA & TOMHT)
rithms involved. performs better overall, and this performance is
maintained as the scenarios get complex, maintain-
• 2nd scenario is build in a realistic LEO environment
ing good accuracy and robustness metrics. Besides,
(as explained in previous sections) increasing the
JPDA maintain minimum impact on computing load
coverage and the complexity of the dynamics. In
compared to TOMHT, although in simple cases is
this scenario a fine hyper-parameter tuning [30] is
really powerful, it underperforms in highly dimen-
perform to observe the dependence of this calibra-
sional problems.
tion on the scenarios.
• 3rd scenario increases the number of object to be • UKF emerge as the best performing algorithm for
tracked up to 10000 particles to be detected and cat- filtering in the studied cases. However, PF perfor-
alogued. In this case, the 2nd scenario calibration is mance could be more flexible as it is highly depen-
used. dant on its hyper-parameters.