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الواجب الورقي الثاني ف2 احصاء١٠١ stat101
الواجب الورقي الثاني ف2 احصاء١٠١ stat101
PB
……………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………
P Zi P B Zi
……………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………
0 3224 1 2 2 321
……………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………
0.1
iii) What is the probability that the selected balls are white only ?
………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……………………
let D the event that the selected balls are white only
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………
P D P
……………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………
Zi P D Zi
……………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………..……………………………… 0.0167
-1-
b) We choose a box randomly and we withdraw a ball from it in a random manner. Then:
i) What is the probability that the selected ball is blue ?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
let E the event that the selected ball
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
is blue
PE Zi EP Zi P E
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
5 7 5
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
E 5 t
ii) If we found that the selected ball is blue. What is the probability that this ball from the box B3 ?
P A P E 173
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
P z E
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
P E
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
iii n
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
I
EdFB
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
I4e
EEf
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
t.EE
É
IIIt If fff.is
ii) Determine the distribution function of this random variable and calculate P ( 2 X 3) .
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
If
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
P
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2 3 513 F 62 0
-2-
iii) Calculate E(X ) , E(X 2 ) and Var (X ) .
I 8 21 1 3 581 4156 51 6
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
E X ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
EX P X A 4.472
P A 11 1 2 321581 44 1 5 96 6
E X……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………21.97
varix
fi s 4
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
iv) Calculate E(X 3) . 1.973
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
E x 3 E x 3
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
4.472 3 1.472
v) Calculate Var 3X 4 .
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
var 13 41
1 9843
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
17.757
Question 3) Let [ , A , P ] be a probability space. We take A, B, C A with P (A) 0.35 , P (A \ B ) 0.27 ,
P (B C) 0.12 , P (B C) 0.70 , P (A C) 0.62 , P (B \ (A C )) 0.20 and P (A B C) 0.05 .
Then calculate the following probabilities:
a) P (A B ) = …………………………………………………………………………………………………..……...…
pepp.fi
ffII 5f'pbnj
pEnB
b) P (B) = …………………………………………………………………………………………………...……….……
P
20 0,08 0.12 0 05 0.35 9
BOC P BMC 0.70 0.35 0.12 0.47
PB
c) P (C ) = …………………………………………………………………………………………………..……………..
d) P (A B ) = …………………………………………………………………………………………..……………….
P A PCB P ADB 0.35 0.35 0.08 0.62
e) P ( BC ) = ……………………………………………………………………………………………..………………..
P BUC P BAC 0.70 0.12 0.58
f) P(A B C)
PCA PCBS PCC PCAMB PCANC P BAC PCANBAC
……………………………………………………………………………………………..………..
…………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………
0 35 0.35 0 47 0 08 0.2 0.12 0 82 0.05
P ATB
g) P (A B) ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
P AUB 1 0.62 0.38
h) P(A B C) ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….
P AMBAC 1 PIANBAC 1 0.05 0.95
Question 4) We toss a coin. If you know that the probability of a head appearing is 0.80, then:
a) If we toss this coin 25 times, what is the probability that it will come up heads 20 times ?
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
we use binomial distribution with n 25 D 0.80
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
n k
P X K n Ck P
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
1 b
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
P X 20 25 20 0.842 0.20 0 196
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
b) If we were to continue tossing the coin until we get a tail for the first time, what is the probability that the
tail will appear for the first time on the fifth toss ?
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
let A the event that the tail will appear for the first time
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
on the fifth toss
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
P A 0.8074 0.20 0 08192
-3-
Question 5) If you know that accidents that occur at a traffic signal between 7 and 8 a.m. have a Poisson
distribution with an average of one accident per day, what is the probability that three accidents will occur at
this signal on a day between 7 and 8 a.m.?
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
3
P E
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
13
P 3
……………………….…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
0.061
Question 6) Consider a random variable X with the following density function:
c x 2 for 1 / 2 x 1
f (x )
0 otherwise
a) Calculate the value of the constant c.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
x dx I tax 2x I ex J I
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
I 8
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
5
b) Determine the distribution function FX .
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
F X flu du
fluidu tu
EI
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
81
8 8 1
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… f 3
for C
83
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
for EX
1I
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
for
1 1
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
c) What is the value of P(X 0.25) ? Why ?
P
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
0.25 0
because the distribution function F is continuous
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
on R
Question 7) There are 80 fishes in a small lake, including 15 salmon fishes. A fisherman threw his net into the
lake and caught 15 fishes. If all fishes has the same chance at catch, what is the probability that he would
have 5 salmon fishes with the fishes he caught ?
-4-
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