Received: 15 October 2017 Revised: 23 March 2018 Accepted: 26 March 2018 Published on: 19 April 2018

DOI: 10.1002/joc.5554

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Season-dependent warming characteristics observed at

12 stations in South Korea over the recent 100 years
Woosuk Choi1 | Chang-Hoi Ho1 | Maeng-Ki Kim2 | Jinwon Kim3 | Hee-Dong Yoo4 |
Jong-Ghap Jhun1 | Jee-Hoon Jeong5

1
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences,
Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea A number of studies on the surface warming in the Korean Peninsula reported that
2
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Kongju there has been a notable increasing trend of surface air temperatures over the past
National University, Gongju, South Korea several decades. Here, by analysing long-term surface air temperature data at 12 sta-
3
National Institute for Meteorological Sciences, tions in South Korea that have records longer than 60 years, the authors show that
Korean Meteorological Administration, Seogwipo,
the warming of spring and autumn temperatures is characterized by quasi-linear
South Korea
4
increases with time whereas the warming in winter and summer is characterized by
Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul,
South Korea one or two abrupt jumps. Change-point analysis of the seasonal-mean temperature
5
Department of Oceanography, Chonnam National time series shows that abrupt jumps in winter temperatures occurred in the late
University, Gwangju, South Korea 1940s and late 1980s, while the jump in summer temperatures occurred in 1994 at
Correspondence most stations. The shape of the frequency distribution of the daily-mean tempera-
Chang-Hoi Ho, School of Earth and ture anomalies at all stations shifts to the warmer side after the jumps for both win-
Environmental Sciences, Seoul National
University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul
ter and summer. This shift in turn results in the decrease of cold extremes in winter
151-747, South Korea. and the increase of warm extremes in summer at all stations. Our results indicate
Email: hoch@cpl.snu.ac.kr that recent temperature records in South Korea are characterized by the two differ-
Funding information ent types of warming according to seasons.
Korea Environmental Industry and Technology
Institute; Korea Ministry of Environment
KEYWORDS

abrupt jump, change-point analysis, frequency distribution, surface air

temperature, warming trend

1 | INTRODUCTION continent (Jung et al., 2002; Chung et al., 2004; An et al.,

A number of previous studies showed that the intensity and
frequency of hazardous weather phenomena such as tropical
cyclones, heavy precipitation events, cold surges, droughts,
and heat waves over the Korean Peninsula have increased in
the recent several decades (e.g., Ho et al., 2011; Jeong et al.,
2011; Park et al., 2011; Kim et al., 2012; Lee et al., 2012;
Min et al., 2015; Park et al., 2016). Such increases in extreme
phenomena that have caused tremendous socio-economic
losses are attributed to the recent climate changes most
clearly identified in surface warming. Magnitude of surface
warming in South Korea is much greater than the global-
mean for the same period because it is affected by various cli-
mate variabilities over the northeastern coast of the Asian
2011; Korea Meteorological Administration, 2012). This sig-
nificant regional warming has resulted in overall changes in
the land–atmosphere–ocean–ecosystem in South Korea and
neighbouring regions (Chung et al., 2004; An et al., 2011;
Lee et al., 2014; Min et al., 2015). Recently, the Korea Mete-
orological Administration (KMA) published a report for the
future climate change by combining multiple research articles
to diagnose global warming indications and relevant climate
changes over the Korean Peninsula (Korea Meteorological
Administration, 2012). According to this report, the annual-
mean temperature of South Korea has increased by 1.2 ! C
from 1981 to 2010, a mean warming rate of 0.4 ! C/decade.
Many climate scientists and general public, not only in
Korea but also in all over the world, perceive that the global

4092 © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/joc Int J Climatol. 2018;38:4092–4101.

 10970088, 2018, 11, Downloaded from https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5554 by Ewha Womans University Library, Wiley Online Library on [12/03/2024]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
CHOI ET AL. 4093

warming has been occurring as gradual increases in the sur-

face air temperatures over the last several decades. However,
warming characteristics vary according to seasons and
regions. Thus, details of long-term warming characteristics
need to be understood for more accurate assessments of
warming and their effects on various sectors (Drinkwater,
2006; Xiao and Li, 2007; Kim et al., 2015). Climate vari-
ability related to global warming can be attributed to internal
variability and external forcing as well as their interactions
within the climate system (Meehl et al., 2009; 2014). The
external forcing variability by the emissions of anthropo-
genic greenhouse gases and aerosols/aerosol precursors in
shaping climate variability become increasingly dominant
since the industrial revolution. On the other hand, the inter-
nal variability arises from nonlinearity associated with com-
plex interactions within the climate system; we currently do
not have sufficient understanding of the natural variability
(Meehl et al., 2014; Min et al., 2015). Considering the
uncertainty in the internal variability, careful interpretations FIGURE 1 Geographical distribution of Korean weather observatories

of climate variations and changes in observed records are with topography (m) [Colour figure can be viewed at
wileyonlinelibrary.com]
required. However, most studies on the warming over South
Korea have attempted to explain the observed temperature
checks the physical ranges, frequency distributions, flat lines,
increase in terms of linear trends (Korea Meteorological
median filter, and vertical consistency of observed data. This
Administration, 2012). This linear perspective has limita-
data quality management ensures all data to be reliable for
tions in accurately understanding future warming character-
every observation station managed by the KMA.
istics that is a key for developing the plans to mitigate and
All available data sets since the foundation year of each
adapt to the climate change.
This study examines the characteristics of the surface station are analysed except for the period of Korean War
temperature trend over Korea for individual seasons by ana- (1950–1953) in which data at some stations are unavailable
lysing long-term data observed at 12 stations. This study (Table 1). Observations at Seoul, Incheon, Daegu, Busan,
emphasizes the characteristics of the surface temperature and Mokpo stations started before 1910. Additional observa-
variations in the recent 100 years; gradual warming versus tories were opened after 1910 in Gangneung, Jeonju,
sudden jumps. This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 Gwangju, Yeosu, Ulsan, Pohang, and Chupungnyeong. To
presents the observational data analysed in this study and the identify the long-term variability in the seasonal-mean tem-
method for detecting regime shifts used to identify the perature, the daily-mean temperatures at each season, winter
abrupt temperature change. In section 3, common character- (December–February), spring (March–May), summer (June–
istics of the temperature records for each season are August), and autumn (September–November), are analysed.
described. Sections 4 and 5 analyse the changes in the daily- This study focuses on the seasonal-mean temperature
mean temperature frequency distribution and the changes in
TABLE 1 Beginning year of observation and years for abrupt increase of
extreme temperatures, respectively. Summary and discus-
surface air temperature at 12 stations in South Korea
sions of this study are provided in section 6.
Beginning year Years of abrupt increase
Station name of observation (winter/summer)
Gangneung 1912 1949, 1987/none
2 | DATA AND METHODOLOGY
Seoul 1908 1949, 1987/1994
Incheon 1904 1987/1927, 1994
Data from 12 KMA stations in South Korea (Gangneung,
Chupungnyeong 1953 1987/none
Seoul, Incheon, Chupungnyeong, Pohang, Daegu, Jeonju,
Pohang 1949 1987/1994
Ulsan, Gwangju, Busan, Mokpo, and Yeosu), where the sur-
Daegu 1909 1972, 1989/1994
face air temperatures have been observed for more than
Jeonju 1919 1949, 1998/1959
60 years, are employed for analysis in this study (Figure 1).
Ulsan 1946 1987/1994
The KMA performs the data quality management including
Gwangju 1939 1987/none
quality assurance and quality control to the raw data measured
Busan 1904 1987/1994
from instruments (Korea Meteorological Administration,
Mokpo 1906 1987/none
2011). This KMA quality control process, the real-time quality
Yeosu 1942 1987/none
control system for meteorological observation data (RQMOD),

4094
because inter-annual variations in the annual-mean tempera-
ture may not represent clearly the detailed characteristics of
long-term variations. Because the temperature record at these
12 stations start in different years, the characteristics of tem-
perature changes can be mixed when an average of tempera-
ture is taken at once for all stations. Thus, temperature
records are analysed for each station.
For the regime shift analysis, we utilize a change-point
detection method based on the Student’s t test (Rodionov,
2004). For user-specified cut-off length l and a threshold
confidence level, this method calculates the mean of initial
l years and examines whether there are any statistically sig-
nificant differences between the means of subsequent l years
and the means of initial l years. If there is no statistically sig-
nificant difference, the corresponding year is included in the
current regime and the process is repeated for the following
year. If any statistically significant differences are found for
a target year, the corresponding year is assigned as a year of
regime shift (i.e., a change-point year). Repeating this pro-
cess, this method can identify multiple regime-shift years
within a given period. Through the change-point analysis,
we have repeatedly checked 20-year running averages
(i.e., cut-off regime length l = 20) with the specified signifi-
cant level of 95% to determine the change-point years for
surface air temperatures.
In order to determine which one is more appropriate
approach between the linear trend and the regime shift, the
coefficient of determination (R2) (Wilks, 2011) is calculated
as follows:
P for all stations except Chupungnyeong where the tempera-
2 SSR SSE ðyi −fi Þ2
R = =1 − =1 − Pi 2
,
SST SST i ðyi −yÞ
where SSR is the regression sum of squares, SST the total
sum of squares, SSE the sum of residuals, yi the observed
ith-year value, fi the estimated ith-year value, and y the tem-
poral average over whole observed years. The value of the
coefficient of determination represents how well the regres-
sion line approximates the real data.
3 | W AR M I NG FE AT U R E S FO R E AC H
SEASON
Figure 2 displays the time series of seasonal-mean surface
air temperature anomalies at the 12 stations. When we sim-
ply arrange the seasonal-mean surface temperatures at all
stations in South Korea for the recent 30 years of
1981–2010, the spatial variations of seasonal-mean tempera-
tures range from −0.6 to 4.6 ! C for winter, 10.9 to 13.7 ! C
for spring, 22.9 to 25.0 ! C for summer, and 12.9 to 17.2 ! C
for autumn (not shown). Considering that temperature distri-
butions vary according to seasons and regions, we have
removed the seasonal-mean values for the recent 30 years
(1981–2010) from each station’s record and analysed the
10970088, 2018, 11, Downloaded from https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5554 by Ewha Womans University Library, Wiley Online Library on [12/03/2024]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
CHOI ET AL.
residuals, that is, deviations from the seasonal mean. Grey
lines represent the seasonal-mean temperature anomalies;
nine-point (i.e., 27 months) moving averages are also
presented in all panels (black solid lines) to easily identify
long-term variations. Despite large temporal variations in the
temperature anomalies, significant warming tendencies are
evident at all stations except Chupungnyeong. By comparing
the periods before and after the year(s) of abrupt jump, we
can recognize that the means of temperature anomalies
increase substantially across the year(s) of abrupt jump.
Although regime shift years, statistically determined by
change-point analysis, are vary according to stations, notable
temperature increases can be seen for all stations at that
years when regime shift occurred for at least one station
(e.g., 1949, 1959, 1971, and 1991 in Figure 2). This coher-
ent temperature change demonstrates the consistency of the
records at the 12 observatories in South Korea that are ana-
lysed in this study.
Entire stations show increasing trends of the seasonal-
mean temperatures over the observation period. Note that
the temperature trend at Chupungnyeong is insignificant
since 1952 when the observation began. The remaining
11 stations show clearly identified temperature jumps of
0.3–1.0 ! C, especially in the late 1940s and in the mid to late
1980s. The coefficient of determination for Seoul is 0.32 in
the linear regression analysis, whereas it is 0.45 in the
regime shift analysis. This implies that the regime shift anal-
ysis explains higher percentage of the variability than the lin-
ear regression analysis for the Seoul station. This is common
ture trend is insignificant. Thus, the regime shift analysis
may be more appropriate for investigating the characteristics
of the surface temperature variability in South Korea.
Because the climatological mean values for the recent
30 year period are removed, the moving-average lines (black
solid lines) show a value of near 0 ! C in the 1980s or 1990s.
Out of the seven stations where the observation started
before 1950, four stations (Seoul, Incheon, Daegu, and
Busan) which experienced more urbanization show larger
increases of around 1.5 ! C between the present and the
period before the 1950s. The stations (Gangneung, Jeonju,
and Mokpo) that are relatively less affected by urbanization
exhibit about 1 ! C increase during the entire period. All sta-
tions except Chupungnyeong show about 0.5 ! C increases
between the 1950s and the mid-1980s.
In order to check if the temperature jump occurs for all
seasons, the mean temperature time series are analysed for
each season (Figures 3 and S1, Supporting Information). Com-
paring the temperature variability seen in the time series which
are connected all seasons (Figure 2), it is recognized that the
temperature variations vary substantially according to seasons
(Figures 3 and S1). The statistical coefficient of determination
clearly shows that the regime shift analysis for the temperature
variation are appropriate for winter and summer while the
 10970088, 2018, 11, Downloaded from https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5554 by Ewha Womans University Library, Wiley Online Library on [12/03/2024]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
CHOI ET AL. 4095

FIGURE 2 Time series of seasonal-mean surface air temperature anomalies (four times per year) at 12 stations in South Korea for the available data period
since 1904. Grey lines show seasonal-mean surface air temperature anomalies at each station and black lines indicate nine-point moving averages of them.
Thick black horizontal lines denote averages for each climate regime

linear regression analysis is suitable for spring and autumn for period for Gangneung, Chupungnyeong, Gwangju, Mokpo,
most of these stations. It is also noteworthy that there are no and Yeosu (Table 1). For these five stations, the temperature
significant warming signals in summer during the observation trend over the observation period is small so that both methods

4096
yield insignificant results. Thus, the summer temperature
regime has remained unchanged at these five stations.
For winter, sudden temperature increases occur at all
stations (Table 1), but the amounts of increases are different
for various stations. For the seven stations at which temper-
ature observations started before 1950, the first sudden tem-
perature jump appears in 1949 at Seoul, Gangneung, and
Jeonju, while no significant changes occur at the remaining
stations (Incheon, Daegu, Busan, and Mokpo). Another sig-
nificant temperature jump in 1987 is identified at all sta-
tions. The four stations (Gangneung, Seoul, Daegu, and
Jeonju) where two significant jumps are identified show
especially large temperature increases of 2–3 ! C between
the 1990s and the pre-1950s. The summer temperature vari-
ability also shows sudden increases as in winter (Table 1).
Two temperature jumps appear only at Incheon and one
jump appears at six stations (Seoul, Pohang, Daegu, Jeonju,
Ulsan, and Busan), while five stations show no jumps
(Gangneung, Chupungnyeong, Gwangju, Mokpo, and
Yeosu). Thus, the patterns of the summer temperature vari-
ability are different from those of winter temperature vari-
ability (Figures 3 and S1). Main jumps occurred in 1994 at
six stations and other jumps happen in 1927 at Incheon and
in 1959 at Jeonju (Table 1).
Among the 12 stations, we focus on three stations
(Seoul, Chupungnyeong, and Busan) here because they are
10970088, 2018, 11, Downloaded from https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5554 by Ewha Womans University Library, Wiley Online Library on [12/03/2024]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
CHOI ET AL.
FIGURE 3 Time series of seasonal-mean
surface air temperature at selected three
stations (Seoul, Chupungnyeong, and
Busan) in South Korea for the available
period since 1904. Horizontal lines indicate
climatological averages for each climate
regime. Red, orange, green, and blue bars
denote the temperature range between
daily-maximum and daily-minimum
temperatures for summer, autumn, spring,
and winter season, respectively. Note the
overlapped temperature ranges in autumn
and spring [Colour figure can be viewed at
wileyonlinelibrary.com]
representative of the central, inland, and southern coastal
region of the Korean Peninsula, respectively (Figure 1).
Overall, the strength of warming for summer is smaller than
that for winter in South Korea, because both the number of
sudden warming events and the magnitude of the tempera-
ture jumps are small (Figure 3). In general, autumn tempera-
tures are 2–5 ! C higher than spring temperatures.
Comparing these two seasons’ temperature variability, two
notable features are identified. First, the temperature differ-
ence between spring and autumn decreases with time for
most stations, indicating that the warming trend is larger for
spring than for autumn. Considering that spring (fall) is a
transition period from winter to summer (from summer to
winter), the difference between spring and fall may be
related to the tendency that the start dates of summer may
have been advancing (i.e., increase of spring temperature)
and the end dates of summer may have been delayed
(i.e., increase of autumn temperature). To clarify, we have
examined temperatures in March, May, September, and
November, the transition months between winter and sum-
mer. It is found that the temperature increase is the largest in
March, followed by May, November, and September for all
stations (not shown). This confirms that the spring tempera-
ture has increased faster than the autumn temperature. Sec-
ond, the abrupt temperature changes found in winter and
summer temperatures are not clear in the spring and autumn
 10970088, 2018, 11, Downloaded from https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5554 by Ewha Womans University Library, Wiley Online Library on [12/03/2024]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
4098 CHOI ET AL.

FIGURE 4 Frequency distribution

functions of daily-mean temperature during
the four seasons at selected three stations
(Seoul, Chupungnyeong, and Busan) in
South Korea. For the winter and summer,
light grey and dark grey lines represent the
former and the later periods divided by
regime shift years, respectively. In the case
of two shift years, black lines denoting the
most recent period are added. Red lines
indicate the difference of frequency
distribution functions between the latter
and the former periods (latter minus
former). For the case of two shift years,
blue lines indicating the difference between
recent and middle periods (recent minus
middle) are added. For spring and autumn,
the former and the latter periods are
divided by year 1985 [Colour figure can be
viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

FIGURE 5 Time series of winter cold

extreme (coldest 10%) and summer hot
extreme (hottest 10%) surface air
temperature at selected three stations
(Seoul, Chupungnyeong, and Busan) in
South Korea for the available data period
since 1904. Horizontal lines indicate
averages for each climate regime [Colour
figure can be viewed at
wileyonlinelibrary.com]

CHOI ET AL.
temperatures over the southern region (Pohang, Ulsan,
Gwangju, Busan, Mokpo, and Yeosu) range from −4 to
2 ! C. A change-point analysis identifies abrupt warming in
1987 for all stations except the Chupungnyeong station.
Two stations exhibit larger sudden warmings; in 1971 at
Daegu and in 1949 at Jeonju.
The extreme summer temperatures in the highest 10%
are also analysed. Even though the variability of extreme
temperatures is smaller in summer than in winter, it is possi-
ble to infer the climatological regime changes for high tem-
peratures in summer. Extremely high temperatures in
summer range from 25 to 30 ! C at most stations. Sudden
increases in extremely high temperature at three stations
(Seoul, Daegu, and Busan) occurred in 1994, which is
known as the year of extreme heat wave. For other stations,
abrupt changes in extremely high temperatures occurred in
various years; 1937 for Incheon, 1950 for Jeonju, 1964 for
Ulsan, 2004 for Gwangju, and 1942 for Mokpo. It is peculiar
that a sudden decrease of extremely warm temperatures
appears at Chupungnyeong in 1986.
The analysis strongly supports that the extreme tempera-
tures for winter and summer have also experienced sudden
changes. That is, not only the seasonal-mean temperature
but also extreme temperatures change suddenly in specific
years. Our results suggest that the frequency of extreme
weather events associated with climate change may also
increase drastically rather than gradually.
6 | SUMMARY AND DISCUSSIONS
We have analysed the surface warming over South Korea
using long-term (>60 years) observations at 12 weather sta-
tions. Because warming characteristics may vary according
to seasons and/or geographical locations and the start of
observed temperature records vary according to stations, the
temperature variations are analysed separately for each sea-
son and for each station. The long-term warming characteris-
tics in South Korea are found to vary considerably according
to seasons. In general, the surface warming is dominated by
sudden jumps in temperature for winter and summer,
whereas it is rather gradual for spring and autumn. At many
stations, sudden increases in the winter temperature occur in
the late 1940s and the mid to late 1980s, while the abrupt
warming in summer occurs mostly in 1994. From the analy-
sis of the frequency of the daily-mean temperature during
the periods before and after the year of the abrupt change, it
is revealed that the frequency of colder (warmer) tempera-
tures below (above) the climatological mean value decreases
(increases) for both winter and summer. Overall, sudden
temperature increases are observed more frequently and
clearly at most stations in winter than in summer. It is also
found that sudden changes not only in the seasonal-mean
temperatures but also in extreme temperatures occur in spe-
cific years for both summer and winter.
10970088, 2018, 11, Downloaded from https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5554 by Ewha Womans University Library, Wiley Online Library on [12/03/2024]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
4099
On the other hand, the warming in spring and autumn
appears to be quasi-linear. Except for the Chupungnyeong
station which has experienced almost no temperature
changes, all stations show about 0.4–1.8 ! C increases during
the past 50 years. For spring and autumn, the frequency in
the colder (warmer) temperature portion decreases
(increases) but no clear tendency is found. Moreover, the
temperature increase is larger in spring than in autumn, so
the temperature difference between the two seasons is get-
ting smaller. This implies that the start (end) date of summer
has been advanced (delayed). Thus, the temperature change
in the transition seasons may depend on the changes in the
length of summer and/or winter seasons.
The temperature changes for winter and summer can be
related to the East Asia monsoon variability. That is, the
abrupt change of the surface temperature over the Korean
Peninsula may be understood in terms of the sudden change
in the monsoon circulation during the past several decades.
In winter, the variability of large-scale climate factors such
as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and
Pacific Decadal Oscillation is well known to be associated
with East Asian winter monsoon variation on the decadal
timescale (Jhun and Lee, 2004; Woo et al., 2012; Chen
et al., 2013; He and Wang, 2013; Sun et al., 2016). The sud-
den changes in the temperature over the Korean Peninsula in
the late 1940s and the mid to late 1980s coincide with the
timing of the abrupt changes in the large-scale circulation.
For summer, the westwards propagating Rossby waves from
the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific control the asym-
metric interaction of large-scale atmospheric circulations
over the western Pacific tropical warm-pool region. This
wave activity is related to a mechanism to accelerate the
onset of the East Asian summer monsoon since the mid-
1990s (Greatbatch et al., 2013; Xiang and Wang, 2013;
Zhang et al., 2016). It is observed that the sudden tempera-
ture changes over the Korean Peninsula have occurred in
association with the changes of the large-scale monsoon cir-
culation in winter and summer. On the other hand, no abrupt
temperature changes may occur during the spring and
autumn.
Given the data homogeneity is an important issue in cli-
mate data analysis (Cao and Yan, 2012; Cao et al., 2016),
we should consider the possibility of data contamination by
the differences in the record length between stations.
Because data at each station begins in different years from
other stations (Table 1), there can be data homogeneity prob-
lem prior to 1954 due to the absence of a reference station.
Repeating the same analysis for an available common period
(1954–2015), all of the 12 station records yield the same
abrupt warming after the 1960s (Table 1). General character-
istics of the temperature variations, combination of abrupt
and gradual warming according to seasons, are consistent
with the descriptions presented above. Thus, our main

4100
conclusion remains the same despite the fact that reliability
of the analysis for the pre-1954 period is relatively low.
Even though abrupt warming is observed for these sta-
tions, the timing and strength of these changes vary with sta-
tions. Intrinsic characteristics of a station due to differences in
response to external forcing and to local factors such as terrain
shape and heights, proximity to the ocean, and urbanization
may have contributed to these differences among stations.
Even though the land area of Korea is relatively small, its
unique geography characterized by complex orography and
the presence of ocean on its three sides (Figure 1) can induce
some differences in climate variables within the region, and
thus possibly cause temperature variations among stations.
Considering that local temperature variability is largely
controlled by large-scale mid-latitude weather systems and
surrounding environments, these differences mainly come
from local effects such as socio-economic and environmental
changes related to industrialization and/or urbanization dur-
ing the last 50 years. Urbanization effect shows obvious
locality and it is difficult to quantify because most observa-
tories in South Korea, except for the analysed 12 stations,
did not exist in 1950s. In addition, previous study on the
impact of urbanization in Korea suggested that urbanization
has only weak effects on the overall warming despite large
uncertainty (e.g., Park et al., 2017). For example, the tem-
perature variation at the Chupungnyeong station which has
been little affected by urbanization also shows significant
winter abrupt warming in certain years like other stations.
Thus, urbanization effects are not likely to alter the main
conclusion of this study.
The various surface warming described in our study may
result from combinations of the internal variability associ-
ated with the natural oscillation and the external-forcing var-
iability due to the anthropogenic effect according to the
climate variability theory of previous studies (e.g., Meehl
et al., 2009; 2014; Kim et al., 2015). Results from this study
suggest that even if the present temperature increases are not
significant, such kinds of energy may be accumulated in the
climate system and then a significant abrupt increase in tem-
perature may occur in the near future. Therefore, warming of
the Korean Peninsula may be understood in the form of
regime shifts leading to a new climate equilibrium, and thus
the warming variability may be considered as a step-up pro-
cess. This study does not explain the mechanisms behind the
observed distinct warming characteristics for different sea-
sons. Additional studies are needed to identify these causes
by analysing comprehensively the variations in climate
parameters affecting the surface temperature in East Asian
and global mid-latitude regions (Kim et al., 2015).
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was funded by the Korea Ministry of Environ-
ment as “Climate Change Correspondence Program.” We
10970088, 2018, 11, Downloaded from https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5554 by Ewha Womans University Library, Wiley Online Library on [12/03/2024]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
CHOI ET AL.
greatly appreciate the thorough reviews and critical com-
ments from two anonymous reviewers.
OR CID
Woosuk Choi http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9570-5887
Chang-Hoi Ho http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1372-0037
Maeng-Ki Kim http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0871-3676
REFERENCES
An, S.-I., Ha, K.-J., Seo, K.-H., Yeh, S.-W., Min, S.-K. and Ho, C.-H. (2011) A
review of recent climate trends and causes over the Korean Peninsula. Cli-
mate Change Research, 2, 237–251.
Cao, L.-J. and Yan, Z.-W. (2012) Progress in research on homogenization of cli-
mate data. Advances in Climate Change Research, 3, 59–67.
Cao, L., Zhu, Y., Tang, G., Yuan, F. and Yan, Z. (2016) Climatic warming in
China according to a homogenized data set from 2419 stations. International
Journal of Climatology, 36, 4384–4392.
Chen, W., Feng, J. and Wu, R. (2013) Roles of ENSO and PDO in the link of
the East Asian winter monsoon to the following summer monsoon. Journal
of Climate, 26, 622–635.
Chung, Y.-S., Yoon, M.-B. and Kim, H.-S. (2004) On climate variations and
changes observed in South Korea. Climatic Change, 66, 151–161.
Drinkwater, K.F. (2006) The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North
Atlantic. Progress in Oceanography, 68, 134–151.
Greatbatch, R.J., Sun, X. and Yang, X.-Q. (2013) Impact of variability in the
Indian summer monsoon on the East Asian summer monsoon. Atmospheric
Science Letters, 14, 14–19.
He, S. and Wang, H. (2013) Oscillating relationship between the East Asian win-
ter monsoon and ENSO. Journal of Climate, 26, 9819–9838.
Ho, C.-H., Lee, M.-H., Park, T.-W. and Lee, S. (2011) A review of observed cli-
mate change in Korean Peninsula. Climate Change Research, 2, 221–235.
Jeong, J.-H., Ou, T., Linderholm, H.W., Kim, B.-M., Kim, S.-J., Kug, J.-S. and
Chen, D. (2011) Recent recovery of the Siberian High intensity. Journal of
Geophysical Research, 116, D23102.
Jhun, J.G. and Lee, E.J. (2004) A new East Asian winter monsoon index and
associated characteristics of the winter monsoon. Journal of Climate, 17,
711–726.
Jung, H.-S., Choi, Y., Oh, J.-H. and Lim, G.-H. (2002) Recent trends in tempera-
ture and precipitation over South Korea. International Journal of Climatol-
ogy, 22, 1327–1337.
Kim, J.-H., Wu, C.-C., Sui, C.-H. and Ho, C.-H. (2012) Tropical cyclone contri-
bution to the interdecadal change in summer rainfall over south China in the
early 1990s. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 23, 49–58.
Kim, Y.-H., Kim, M.-K., Lau, W.K.M., Kim, K.-M. and Cho, C.-H. (2015) Pos-
sible mechanism of abrupt jump in winter surface air temperature in the late
1980s over the Northern Hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research,
120, 12474–12485.
Korea Meteorological Administration. (2011) Quality Control Manual for
National Climate Data. Seoul: Korea Meteorological Administration, 44 pp.
Korea Meteorological Administration. (2012) Report of future climate change in
Korean Peninsula. Research Report 2012–12, 153 pp.
Lee, M.-H., Ho, C.-H., Kim, J. and Song, C.-K. (2012) Assessment of the
changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia due to global warming. Cli-
matic Change, 113, 301–321.
Lee, J.-W., Hong, S.-Y., Chang, E.-C., Suh, M.-S. and Kang, H.-S. (2014)
Assessment of future climate change over East Asia due to the RCP scenar-
ios downscaled by GRIMs-RMP. Climate Dynamics, 42, 733–747.
Meehl, G.A., Goddard, L., Murphy, J., Stouffer, R.J., Boer, G., Danabasoglu, G.,
Dixon, K., Giorgetta, M.A., Greene, A.M., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G.,
Karoly, D., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Navarra, A.,
Pulwarty, R., Smith, D., Stammer, D. and Stockdale, T. (2009) Decadal pre-
diction: can it be skillful? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
90, 1467–1485.
Meehl, G.A., Goddard, L., Bore, G., Burgman, R., Branstator, G., Cassou, C.,
Corti, S., Danabasoglu, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A.,
Kimoto, M., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Navarra, A.,
Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Rosati, T., Schneider, E., Smith, D.,

CHOI ET AL.
Sutton, R., Teng, H., van Oldenborgh GJ, Vecchi, G. and Yeager, S. (2014)
Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society, 95, 243–267.
Min, S.-K., Son, S.-W., Seo, K.-H., Kug, J.-S., An, S.-I., Choi, Y.-S.,
Jeong, J.-H., Kim, B.-M., Kim, J.-W., Kim, Y.-H., Lee, J.-Y. and Lee, M.-I.
(2015) Changes in weather and climate extremes over Korea and possible
causes: a review. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 51,
103–121.
Park, T.-W., Ho, C.-H., Jeong, S.-J., Choi, Y.-S., Park, S.K. and Song, C.-K.
(2011) Different characteristics of cold day and cold surge frequency over
East Asia in a global warming situation. Journal of Geophysical Research,
116, D12118.
Park, D.-S.R., Ho, C.-H., Kim, J., Kang, K. and Nam, C.C. (2016) Highlighting
socioeconomic damages caused by weakened tropical cyclones in the Repub-
lic of Korea. Natural Hazards, 82, 1301–1315.
Park, B.-J., Kim, Y.-H., Min, S.-K., Kim, M.-K., Choi, Y., Boo, K.-O. and
Shim, S. (2017) Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of
urbanization: an updated assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research, 122,
10637–10654.
Rodionov, S.N. (2004) A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts.
Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L09204.
Sun, J., Wu, S. and Ao, J. (2016) Role of the North Pacific sea surface tempera-
ture in the East Asian winter monsoon decadal variability. Climate Dynam-
ics, 46, 3783–3805.
Wilks, D.S. (2011) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Science, 3rd edition.
Cambridge, MA: Academic Press, 676 pp.
Woo, S.-H., Kim, B.-M., Jeong, J.-H., Kim, S.-J. and Lim, G.-H. (2012) Decadal
changes in surface air temperature variability and cold surge characteristics
10970088, 2018, 11, Downloaded from https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5554 by Ewha Womans University Library, Wiley Online Library on [12/03/2024]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
4101
over Northeast Asia and their relation with the Arctic Oscillation for the past
three decades (1979–2011). Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D18117.
Xiang, B. and Wang, B. (2013) Mechanisms for the advanced Asian summer
monsoon onset since the mid-to-late 1990s. Journal of Climate, 26,
1993–2009.
Xiao, D. and Li, J.P. (2007) Main decadal abrupt changes and decadal modes in
global sea surface temperature field [in Chinese]. Chinese Journal of Atmo-
spheric Sciences, 31, 839–854.
Zhang, P., Liu, Y. and He, B. (2016) Impact of East Asian summer monsoon
heating on the interannual variation of the South Asian High. Journal of Cli-
mate, 29, 159–173.
SUPPORTING I NFORMATION
Additional Supporting Information may be found online in
the supporting information tab for this article.
How to cite this article: Choi W, Ho C-H,
Kim M-K, et al. Season-dependent warming charac-
teristics observed at 12 stations in South Korea over
the recent 100 years. Int J Climatol. 2018;38:
4092–4101. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5554