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Jun 19th, 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM

Climate change in Hong Kong : observations and projections

Edwin W. L. GINN
Hong Kong Observatory

T. C. LEE
Hong Kong Observatory

K. Y. CHAN
Hong Kong Observatory

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Recommended Citation
Ginn, E. W. L., & Lee, T. C., & Chan, K. Y. (2009). Climate change in Hong Kong: Observations and
projections. In China and global climate change: Proceedings of the conference held at Lingnan
University, Hong Kong, 18-19 June 2009 (pp. 422-443). Centre for Asian Pacific Studies and the
Environmental Studies Programme, Lingnan University, Hong Kong.

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 Climate Change in Hong Kong:
Observations and Projections
E W L Ginn, T C Lee and K Y Chan1

Abstract
The Hong Kong Observatory has been making meteorological observations at its
headquarters in Tsim Sha Tsui since 1884. Analysis of the extensive past records reveals that
the temperature rise in Hong Kong during the past 125 years is in accord with the global
rising trend. In last few decades anthropogenic influences, especially urbanization, have
contributed significantly to the accelerated rising trend. A similar increasing trend is also
observed for rainfall but the trend after 1947 is not statistically significant. Other observations
such as increasing cloud amounts, decreasing total global solar radiation and rising sea level
are all consistent with the global trend. Studies of past occurrences of extreme temperature
and rainfall have recently been carried out. It is observed that cold episodes have become
rarer while very hot days and heavy rain events are becoming more frequent. The
corresponding return periods of heavy rain and very hot days are decreasing while those of
very cold days are increasing. The Observatory also makes use of the data from the latest
assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and employs statistical
downscaling techniques to carry out projections of temperature and precipitation in the 21st
century. In gist, the findings are that the rise in temperature will be slightly higher than the
global mean in the 21st century. There will also be a significant decrease in the number of
cold days and an increase in the number of very hot days and hot nights. The annual rainfall
in Hong Kong is also expected to rise by the end of the 21st century, so is the year-to-year
variability.

1. Introduction
The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) states that warming of the climate system is unequivocal. There are evidences of
increasing global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice
and rising global mean sea level. Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Besides the shifting of the mean climate,
global warming may also alter the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (such as
heavy rain, drought, heat waves, cold spells, etc.) in some regions, leading to significant
socio-economical impacts (IPCC, 2007: 2-17).

For the Guangdong province in southern China, under the background of global
climate change, there was an increase in the average temperature in the last 50 years and
flooding and droughts have also become more frequent (Guangdong Meteorological Bureau,
2007; Chen et al, 2007). Significant changes in the climate were also observed in Hong
Kong over the last century (Leung et al, 2004), including the increase in average
temperatures and total rainfall, the decrease in total global solar radiation and the rise of sea
level. Apart from global warming, these changes in the climate of Hong Kong could also be
partly attributed to the rapid urbanization and increase in population in the past half century
(Lam, 2006, Wu et al, 2008).
In this paper, the observed changes in different meteorological elements of Hong
Kong are reviewed and updated in Section 2. The future projections of the temperatures and

1
Hong Kong Observatory, email: eginn@hko.gov.hk.

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rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st century using the latest available IPCC model data are
presented in Section 3. Section 4 contains a summary of the conclusions. For the trend
analysis discussed in this paper, the two tailed t-test was applied to test the statistical
significance of the trends at 5% significance level (Karl et al., 1993; Easterling et al., 1997;
Storch and Zwiers, 1999).

2. Observed Climate Changes in Hong Kong

2.1. Temperature
At the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters, temperature readings are available since 1885,
apart from a break during the World War II from 1940 to 1946. Analysis of the annual mean
temperature data showed that there was an average rise of 0.12°C per decade from 1885 to
2008 (Figure 1). The rate of increase in average temperature became faster in the latter half
of the 20th century. In post-war years from 1947 to 2008, the average rise amounted to
0.16°C per decade, accelerating to 0.27°C per decade during 1979-2008. Such an increasing
trend is in line with that observed for southern China in the last 50 years, about 0.21oC per
decade (Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, 2007). 1998 is the year with the highest global
mean surface temperature since 1850 and among the 10 warmest years, all occurred after
1990 (WMO, 2009). For Hong Kong, 1998 is also the year with the highest mean
temperature and 9 out of the 10 warmest years occurred after 1990.
Apart from the effect of global warming, the rise in the temperature at the Hong Kong
Observatory Headquarters could also be attributed partly to the rapid urbanization in recent
decades. The Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters is located at the heart of urban Kowloon.
Buildings and other concrete surfaces in the urban areas retain the heat produced by incoming
solar radiation during daytime and release the heat in the form of long-wave radiation at night.
High-rise buildings also block the sky view and inhibit the transfer of long-wave radiation to
the atmosphere (Kalande and Oke, 1980; Oke,1982; Grimmond, 2007; Wu et al, 2008). This
results in a slower fall of temperatures at night and a higher minimum temperature than when
buildings are absent. Moreover, the anthropogenic heat emission by buildings, air
conditioning, transportation and industries also contribute to the rise in urban temperatures.
Comparing the temperature rising trend between the Observatory Headquarters and Ta Kwu
Ling, a rural station in the northern part of Hong Kong, urbanization is perhaps the major
contributor to the accelerated temperature rising trend at the Observatory in the last two
decades.
Research indicates that the urbanization effect affects the daily minimum temperature
more than the daily maximum temperature (Karl et al., 1993, Zhou et al, 2004). In Hong
Kong, the mean daily minimum temperature at the HKO Headquarters has been rising
steadily throughout recent years (Figure 2). This resulted in an increasing trend in the
number of hot nights (daily minimum temperature 28.0oC) and a decreasing trend in the
number of cold days (daily minimum temperature 12.0oC). The daily maximum
temperature has also been rising but the trend was not significant. It is also interesting to note
that the rate of increase in the mean minimum temperature in the post-war years was largest
in winter, followed by autumn, spring and then summer (Figures 3(a)-3(d)).

2.2. Rainfall
The annual rainfall recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory from 1885 to 2008 also showed a
long term increasing trend, at a rate of about 25mm per decade but the trend after 1947 is not
statistically significant. This annual rainfall rising trend was small when compared to the
year-to-year fluctuations. The strength of El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the
winter monsoon in the preceding winter were important factors affecting the interannual

423
variability of the rainfall (Chang and Yeung, 2003). There were also discernable inter-decadal
changes.
Recent studies on regional variation of rainfall trends in Hong Kong during the last 50
years (Sun and Evans, 2002; Mok et al, 2006) have found that the apparent increases in
annual rainfall were concentrated in the central part of Hong Kong. The rate was higher over
the urban areas than those of the New Territories, offshore islands and high grounds. It was
postulated that these differential increases were unlikely to be a direct result of global climate
change but might be due to the effects of urbanization. The higher temperature in urban areas
provides a convective background while the increase in concentration of aerosols from urban
activities also favours the formation and development of rain-bearing clouds. Chow (1986)
also found that rainfall recorded during the rainy season of Shanghai was increasing faster in
urban areas compared to rural areas.

2.3. Wind speed

Dense developments in the urban area increase the roughness of the surface underlying the
atmosphere and exert a drag on the low-level air flow. The tendency therefore is for wind
speed near the ground decreasing in the long run. Figure 4 shows the time series of wind
speed between 1968 and 2008 measured at King’s Park at the heart of the urban area and
Waglan Island, a remote offshore island in the southeastern flank of Hong Kong. For
technical reasons and in order to compare like with like, the data points represent the annual
average of 10-minute wind speed readings taken twice daily, at 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. Hong Kong
time.
Since Waglan Island is positioned well away from anthropogenic influences, the wind
observations there are indicative of the background climate without the impact of
urbanization. No significant long-term trend in the wind speed could be detected at Waglan
Island. However, at King’s Park which is situated on a knoll surrounded by dense built-up
areas of nearby Yaumatei, Mongkok, and Homantin, there has been a steady decrease in the
wind speed.
Since the anemometer at King’s Park meteorological station was re-located to another
location with a higher elevation in the station compound in 1996, two segments of the time
series are shown in the figure for wind speeds of King’s Park. Despite the relocation, the
sustained decrease in wind speed remains evident. It is clear that urbanization in the broad
vicinity of King’s Park has reduced the wind speed in the boundary layer of the atmosphere
around the station.

2.4. Cloud Amount, Solar Radiation and Evaporation

An increase in cloud amount can cause a decrease in diurnal temperature range by reducing
the incoming solar radiation during day time and trapping of long-wave radiation at night.
The diurnal temperature range has decreased since the 1950s worldwide and the coincidental
increases in total cloud cover are often cited as a likely cause for the observed decrease in
diurnal temperature range (Leung et al. 2004). In Hong Kong, cloud amount is reported in
oktas hourly by trained observers at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters. The daily
mean cloud amount is taken as the average value of the observed hourly cloud amount in a
day. Based on these daily mean cloud amounts, annual mean values were calculated.
Regression result indicates that the annual mean cloud amount has been increasing at a rate of
1.2% per decade in the period 1961 to 2008 (Figure 5). One potential cause for the increase in
cloud amount over Hong Kong could be the likely increase in the concentration of
condensation nuclei in the air that favoured the formation of clouds, which is known to be
associated with urbanization and human activities in the region.

424
 Both the increase in the concentration of suspended particulates and the increase in
cloud amount would reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface. At King's
Park, the amount of solar radiation reaching Hong Kong is recorded continuously by thermo-
electric pyranometers. Between 1964 and 2008, there has been a clear, broad falling trend.
For the whole period, regression result indicates that the annual mean daily global solar
radiation decreased at a linear rate of 0.74 MJm-2 per decade (Figure 6).
Evaporation measurements are made daily at King’s Park using evaporation pans with
evaporation surface 0.18 m above ground. In general, the amount of evaporation depends on
the amount of solar radiation received, the relative humidity as well as the wind speed.
Accompanying the decrease in solar radiation and wind speed, the annual total evaporation
recorded at King’s Park also decreased at a rate of 142mm per decade, according to a
regression fit for the period from 1961 to 2008 (Figure 7).

2.5. Visibility
One visible aspect of climate change in Hong Kong is the turbidity in the sky which the local
public and visitors are increasingly concerned about. Particulates suspended in the
atmosphere are the primary cause for the reduction in the visibility. Suspended particulates in
the atmosphere normally consist of a mixture of sulphates, nitrates, carbonaceous particles,
sea salt and mineral dusts. They may be purely dust and natural (e.g. loess from northern
China). They could also be anthropogenic particulates formed from combustion products (e.g.
vehicle exhaust, power generation and various domestic activities) through photochemical
processes.
The number of hours of reduced visibility below 8 km observed at the Hong Kong
Observatory Headquarters each year was counted, with cases of visibility impairment that
was concurrent with reports of fog, mist and rain or associated with high relative humidity
(95% or more) excluded. The visibility observed at the Hong Kong Observatory
Headquarters from 1968 to 2008 has a deteriorating trend (Figure 8). There is a rising trend
between 1968 and 1987 of +53 hours per decade but the trend is not statistically significant.
From then onwards, there has been a dramatic rise in the frequency of reduced visibility. The
occurrence of reduced visibility has increased to a rate of about +554 hours per decade during
the period 1988 to 2008, a tenfold increase compared to the previous figure.

2.6. Sea Level Rise

On decadal and longer time scales, global sea level changes is due to two major processes,
mostly related to recent climate change that alter the volume of water in the global ocean.
The first is the thermal expansion of water in a warming climate, and the addition of water
from land reservoirs such as melting glacier and ice sheets. In Hong Kong, the tide gauge
station at North Point during 1954-1985, followed by a replacement station nearby at Quarry
Bay, since 1986 have recorded the sea level of the Victoria Harbour for more than 50 years.
As shown in Figure 9, the mean sea level in the Victoria Harbour has risen at an average rate
of 2.4mm per year during the period 1954 to 2008 which is similar to the sea-level variations
at other tide gauge stations in the South China Sea (Ding et al, 2004).

2.7. Severe Weather Events

2.7.1. Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms

The frequency of occurrence of heavy rain events has increased slightly after the World War
II. The annual number of heavy rain days (days with hourly rainfall greater than 30 mm)
increased at a rate of 0.45 days per decade from 1947 to 2008 (Figure 10).

425
 In Hong Kong, thunderstorms commonly occur between April and September.
Thunderstorms are reported by observers at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters. The
number of days with thunderstorms reported each year was examined. The annual number of
days with thunderstorms showed an increasing trend of about 1.9 days per decade during the
period 1947 to 2008 (Figure 11), in line with that for heavy rain days. Urbanization effect
might have been a cause for the increase in thunderstorm days. The additional heating could
have helped to trigger the formation of deep convection (Dixon and Mote, 2003).

2.7.2. Tropical Cyclones

In western North Pacific and the South China Sea (area 0-45oN, 100-180oE), the total number
of tropical cyclones decreased from about 35 in the 1960s to about 27 after 2000. Closer to
Hong Kong, the annual number of tropical cyclones making landfall along the south China
coast within 300 km of the Observatory Headquarters in the past 40 years or so (1961–2008)
has decreased from about 3 tropical cyclones in the 1960s to about 2.5 between 1990 and
2008, but the rate of change is not statistically significant (Figure 12). The number of
typhoons, i.e. tropical cyclones with a maximum sustained surface winds of 118 kilometers
per hour (32.7 meters per second) or more near its centre, landfalling within 300 kilometers
of Hong Kong remained unchanged at around one typhoon per year during the period 1961-
2008.
On the inter-annual time scale, the most prominent influence on tropical cyclone
activity is that due to the most predominant 3 to 4 year cycle associated with El Nino and La
Nina events (Wang and Li, 2007). Generally speaking, the number of tropical cyclones
affecting Hong Kong is fewer in El Nino years than La Nina years. The reasons for fewer
tropical cyclones to affect the south China coast in El Nino years especially in late typhoon
season (September to November) are an eastward shift in the mean tropical cyclone genesis
positions in these years, and a weaker than normal subtropical ridge over the western North
Pacific which steers tropical cyclones more to the northwest than to the west away from the
South China Sea (Leung and Leung, 2002; Wu et al., 2003).

2.7.3. Extreme Temperatures and Rainfall

In a recent study (Wong et al. 2009) past trends of the occurrences of extreme temperature
and rainfall events in Hong Kong from 1885 to 2008 were examined using extreme indices
including both local indices and a subset of the extreme indices developed by the Expert
Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) and relevant to
Hong Kong. Results showed that the extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures as
well as the warm spell duration index in Hong Kong exhibited statistically significant long
term rising trends while the cold spell duration index had a statistically significant decreasing
trend. The annual highest temperature and lowest temperature had statistically significant
rising trend at a rate of about 0.1oC per decade.
Regarding rainfall, the frequency of occurrence of extreme hourly, 2-hourly and 3-
hourly rainfall amounts increased significantly. The annual total precipitation due to events
exceeding the daily 95th percentile of the climatological normal (1971-2000) increased by
22.4 mm per decade in the same period, indicating that the contribution of heavy rain to the
annual rainfall amount was increasing with time (Figure 13). On the other hand, the
maximum length of dry spell in the summer months from April to September increased at a
rate of 0.3 days per decade from 1885 to 2008.
Moreover, in a study by Wong and Mok (2009), the analysis of the long term trends
of the variation of probability of occurrence of extreme weather events using the time-
dependent Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution method (Coles, 2001; Kharin and
Zwiers 2005; Feng et al 2007) showed that the return period for a minimum temperature

426
4oC had dramatically lengthened from 6 years in 1900 to 163 years in 2000. On the other
hand, the return periods for a maximum temperature 35oC shortened significantly from 32
years in 1900 to 4.5 years in 2000. The return periods for 1, 2 and 3-hourly rainfall has
decreased significantly from 1885 to 2008. The return period for 1-hourly rainfall 100 mm
had shortened from 37 years in 1900 to 18 years in 2000.

3. Future Projections
The study of temperature and rainfall projections for Hong Kong by the Hong Kong
Observatory utilized the results of the global climate model projections included in IPCC’s
assessment reports. These projections are simulated using global climate models under
different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The GHG
emission scenarios used in the computer simulations reflect the various assumptions made by
experts on the future population, economy, technology, energy and land use patterns of the
world. They range from sustainable scenarios involving reductions in GHG emissions to
rapid economic growth and fossil fuel intensive scenarios. Projections of the temperature
trends and rainfall changes in Hong Kong in the 21st century are made using the results of the
global climate models simulations together with observed temperatures and rainfall in Hong
Kong and southern China through statistical downscaling techniques.

3.1. Temperature Projection

As urbanization is an additional important contributor to the rising temperature of cities, the
temperature projection also takes into account the urbanization effect in Hong Kong (Leung
et al, 2007). In the lower-bound situation, the level of urbanization is frozen at the current
level; in the upper-bound situation, urbanization effect grows at a constant rate based the
historical trend in the last century. Together with the GHG emission scenarios, three sets of
results are presented and labeled as:

(a) "middle-of-the-road" - average of the scenarios as well as of the two situations

regarding urbanization;
(b) "low-end" - low emission scenario and urbanization frozen at the current level;
(c) "high-end" - high emission scenario and continued urbanization.

It is expected that the average annual temperature of Hong Kong will continue to rise
in the 21st century. Against the 1980-1999 average of 23.1oC, the annual mean temperature
in Hong Kong in the decade 2090-2099 is expected to rise by 4.8oC according to the middle-
of-the-road projection. The corresponding low-end and high-end values are 3.0 and 6.8oC
respectively (Figure 14). This is slightly higher than the projected rise in global mean
temperature in 2090-2099 (likely range from 1.8 to 4.0oC) as estimated in the Fourth
Assessment Report of IPCC (IPCC, 2007: 2-17).
As for extreme weather, the study shows that the annual number of hot nights (days
with a minimum temperature of 28 oC or above) and very hot days (days with a maximum
temperature of 33oC or above) in summer will increase. On the other hand, the annual
number of cold days in winter (days with a minimum temperature of 12 oC or below) will
continue to drop. The annual number of hot nights in summer is expected to increase from an
average of 15 nights in 1980-1999 to 41 nights in 2090-2099 (middle-of-the-road projection).
The corresponding low-end and high-end estimates are 30 and 54 nights respectively.
The annual number of very hot days in summer is expected to increase from the 1980-1999
average of 7 days to 15 days in 2090-2099 (middle-of-the-road projection). The
corresponding low-end and high-end estimates are 12 and 19 days respectively. The average
annual number of cold days in winter is expected to drop below one by the decade 2030-39

427
(middle-of-the-road projection). The corresponding low-end and high-end estimates are
2040-2049 and 2020-2029 respectively. The average annual number of cold days at the end
of the last century (1980-1999) was 14 days.

3.2. Rainfall Projections

Under the influence of global climate change, the average annual rainfall in Hong Kong will
increase during the latter half of the 21st century (Lee et al, 2009). The projected negative
rainfall anomaly in Hong Kong before the 2040s (Figure 15) may, to a certain extent, reflect a
possible decadal change in the rainfall of Hong Kong. This is consistent with past trend
(Figure 16, 1950-2008) and captured by the model projections (Figure 15, 2010-2039)
Model simulations also suggest that this could possibly be the result of a stronger than normal
sub-tropical ridge during the rainy season of dry years within this period. Figure 17 shows an
example of the stronger than normal sub-tropical ridge at 500 hPa level in 2018, a year with
below normal annual rainfall as simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GFCM20 model.
The second half of the ensemble mean projections, commencing 2040 till the end of
the century, are likely to be dominated by global warming with more moisture available in
the troposphere as a result large scale warming, which tends to enhance precipitation. The
steadily increase in positive rainfall anomaly over southern China in the latter part of the 21st
century could be due to the combined effect of the strengthening of the East Asian Summer
Monsoon and the increase in the low level moisture supply (Figure 18).
It is expected that, in the last 10 years of this century (2090-2099), the average annual
rainfall recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters will reach 2572 mm, 248 mm
(11%) higher than the 1980-1999 average of 2324 mm (Figure 15).
Apart from the increase in the average annual rainfall in the latter half of the 21st
century, the year-to-year variability in rainfall would also increase. The number of extremely
wet years will increase significantly from 2 during the period 1885-2000 to 10 in the 21st
century (2001-2100) and the corresponding figure for extremely dry year is also expected to
increase from 2 to 4. Here, the extremely wet and extremely dry year refer to a year with the
annual rainfall at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters above 3187 mm and below 1282
mm respectively.
In the 21st century, the number of days with heavy rain is also likely to increase.
During the last 30 years of this century, that is 2070-2099, the average number of days in a
year with hourly rainfall at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters exceeding 30 mm
would be about 6.5 days, about 1 day more than the 1980-1999 average of 5.8 days.

3.3. Mean Sea Level

According to IPCC AR4, the projected sea level rise in the South China Sea including Hong
Kong is likely to be similar to the global average by the end of the 21st century. The report
projects a total sea level rise of 18 cm to 59 cm (Figure 19) for the region.

4. Conclusions
The analysis of temperature records shows that Hong Kong has been warming up during the
past 124 years (1885-2008), in line with the global warming trend. This is also consistent
with the warming trend in southern China in the past 50 years. The warming trend in Hong
Kong can be attributed to the global warming and local urbanization. The reduction in
visibility, increase in cloud amount, decrease in global solar radiation, reduction of urban
wind speed in Hong Kong might also be related to high density urban development. Also, the
annual rainfall and the frequency of occurrence of heavy rain events have increased during

428
the period 1885-2008 whereas the number of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong has
slightly decreased during the period 1961 to 2008.
The projections of temperature and rainfall in the 21st century reveal that the average
temperature in Hong Kong will continue to rise in the 21st century. There will also be a
significant decrease in the number of cold days and an increase in the number of very hot
days and hot nights. The annual rainfall in Hong Kong is also expected to rise by the end of
the 21st century and the year-to-year rainfall variability would increase with more extremely
wet and dry years.
Engineers, town planners and other users are interested in frequency of occurrence of
extreme events and future changes in return periods of various extreme events. The
Observatory will embark on follow-up studies on the frequency of occurrence of extreme
events in Hong Kong in the 21st century using IPCC AR4 high temporal resolution projection
data and also making use of data to be available for the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) to
update the projections for Hong Kong.

Acknowledgement
The authors would like to thank Dr B Y Lee and Dr M C Wong for their constructive
comments, and to Dr W T Wong for his inputs on the observed and projected mean sea level
changes.

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431
 24.5

1885-2008 +0.12 deg C / decade

24.0
1947-2008 +0.16 deg C / decade
1979-2008 +0.27 deg C / decade
Annual Mean temperature ( C)

23.5
o

23.0

22.5

22.0

21.5

21.0
1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005
Year

Figure 1 Annual mean temperature recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory

Headquarters (1885-2008). Data are not available from 1940 to 1946.

Annual

29 MaxT Not significant at 5%

MinT + 0.27 °C/decade

27
Temperature (°C)

25

23

21

19

17
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Year
Figure 2 Annual mean daily maximum and minimum recorded at the Hong Kong
Observatory Headquarters (1947-2008).

432
 Winter

24 MaxT Not significant at 5 %

MeanT + 0.21 °C/decade
MinT + 0.34 °C/decade
22

20
Temperature (°C)

18

16

14

12

10
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Year
Figure 3(a) Mean maximum, mean and mean minimum temperatures recorded at the
Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters in winter (December to February) from 1947 to
2008.

Spring
31
MaxT Not signifciant at 5%
MeanT + 0.19 °C/decade
29
MinT + 0.26 °C/decade

27
Tempearture (°C)

25

23

21

19

17
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Year

Figure 3(b) Mean maximum, mean and mean minimum temperatures recorded at the
Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters in spring (March to May) from 1947 to 2008.

433
 Summer

MaxT Not significant at 5 %

34
MeanT + 0.11 °C/decade
MinT + 0.20 °C/decade

32
Temperature (°C)

30

28

26

24
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Year

Figure 3(c) Mean maximum, mean and mean minimum temperatures recorded at the
Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters in summer (June to August) from 1947 to 2008.

Autumn

MaxT Not significant at 5%

31
MeanT + 0.14 °C/decade
MinT + 0.28 °C/decade

29
perature(°C)

27

25
Tem

23

21

19
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Year

Figure 3(d) Mean maximum, mean and mean minimum temperatures recorded at the
Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters in autumn (September to November) from 1947
to 2008.

434
 8
Waglan Island
no significant trend
7
Mean Wind Speed (m/s) .

King's Park
-0.60 m/s per decade
4
King's Park
-0.35 m/s per decade
3

2
Relocation of anemometer
within King's Park

1
1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008
Year

Figure 4 Annual average of 12-hourly 10-minute mean wind speed of King's Park and
Waglan Island from 1968 to 2008.

435
 75
+ 1.2 % /decade
Annual Mean Cloud Amount (%)

70

65

60

55

50
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
Figure 5 Annual mean cloud amount in Hong Kong from 1961 to 2008.

18
-2
-0.74MJm /decade

16
Solar Radiation (MJm )
-2

14

12

10
1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Year

Figure 6 Annual mean daily global solar radiation recorded at King’s Park from 1964
to 2008.

436
 2000
-142 mm/decade

1800
Annual Total Evaporation (mm)

1600

1400

1200

1000
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year

Figure 7 Annual total evaporation recorded at King’s Park from 1961 to 2008.
1800

1500 1988-2008
+554 hours/decade

1200
Number of hours

900 1968-1987
+53 hours/decade

600

300

0
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year (1968 – 2008)
Figure 8 Annual total number of hours with visibility at the Hong Kong Observatory
Headquarters below 8 km from 1968 to 2008 (relative humidity below 95 % and not
counting rain, mist or fog).

437
 1.6
+2.4 mm/decade
Height of se level above chart datum (m)

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Year

Figure 9 Annual Mean Sea Level at North Point / Quarry Bay.

16
+ 0.45 days/decade
14

12
ber of days

10

8
Num

0
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Year

Figure 10 Number of heavy rain days (days with hourly rainfall > 30 mm) recorded at
Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters (1947-2008).

438
 60
+ 1.9 days/decade

50
Number of thunderstorm day

40

30

20

10
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Year

Figure 11 Annual number of thunderstorm day as observed at Hong Kong Observatory

Headquarters from 1947 to 2008.

8
Not significant at 5 %
berof tropical cyclones

4
Num

0
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year

Figure 12 Annual number of tropical cyclones making landfall along the south China
coast within 300 km of Hong Kong from 1961 to 2008.

439
 1800
+ 22.4 mm/decade
1600
Annual total precipitation (mm)

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1885
1889
1893
1897
1901
1905
1909
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
Year

Figure 13 The annual total precipitation due to rainfall events exceeding the daily 95th
percentile of the climatological normal (1971-2000) from 1885 to 2008.

+6.8 oC
high-end
Annual meantemperatureanomaly( C)

6
o

+4.8 oC
middle-of
4 the-road

+3.0 oC
low-end
2

-2
1900-1909

1910-1919

1920-1929

1930-1939

1940-1949

1950-1959

1960-1969

1970-1979

1980-1989

1990-1999

2000-2009

2010-2019

2020-2029

2030-2039

2040-2049

2050-2059

2060-2069

2070-2079

2080-2089

2090-2099

Decade

Figure 14 Past and projected annual mean temperature anomaly for Hong Kong
(relative to the average of 1980-99).

440
 1200

1000
All three 911 mm
800 i
600
Rainfall anomaly (mm)

400
248 mm
200

-200

-400
-561 mm
-600

-800
1900- 1910- 1920- 1930- 1940- 1950- 1960- 1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030- 2040- 2050- 2060- 2070- 2080- 2090-
1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019 2029 2039 2049 2059 2069 2079 2089 2099
Decade

Figure 15 Past and projected change in annual rainfall for Hong Kong
(relative to the average of 1980-99)

Figure 16 Time series of the annual rainfall anomaly (with reference to the 1971-2000
average) in Hong Kong from 1950 to 2008. Bold line represents the 9-year running
average.

441
Figure 17 Mean 500 hPa GPH upper-air chart of the GFDL model (GFCM20) under B1
scenario in July 2018, a year with below normal annual rainfall projection (1105.6 mm).

Figure 18 Time-latitude profile of average change in moisture transport at 850 hPa level
(Kg m-1s-1hPa-1) for June-August over the region from 110-120oE from 2010 to 2099
(relative to the average of 1980-1999).
(Extracted from Sun and Ding, 2009).

442
Figure 19 Projected sea-level rise for the 21st century. The projected range of global
averaged sea-level rise from the IPCC 2001 Assessment Report for the period 1990 to
2100 is shown by the lines and shading. The updated AR4 IPCC projections made are
shown by the bars plotted at 2095. The dark blue bar is the range of model projections
(90% confidence limits) and the light blue bar has the upper range extended to allow for
the potential but poorly quantified additional contribution from a dynamic response of
the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to global warming.
(From UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, extracted & prepared from
IPCC, 2007).

443