What are the RCPs?

RCP stands for ‘Representative

Concentration Pathway’. To understand
how our climate may change
The RCPs try to capture these future trends.
They make predictions of how concentrations
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
will change in future as a result of
2 °C
increase in
temperature
in future, we need to predict Current
human activities.
is recognised as the
how we will behave. emissions are The four RCPs range from very high threshold at which
tracking close (RCP8.5) through to very low (RCP2.6) climate change becomes
For example, will we continue to burn
fossil fuels at an ever-increasing rate, or to the RCP8.5 future concentrations. The numerical values dangerous.
pathway of the RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) refer to the
will we shift towards renewable energy?
concentrations in 2100.

Temperature Sea level Extreme

Effort to curb Energy New 2081–2100 2081–2100 weather Adaptation
technology Transport
emissions generation (average increase (average rise relative
2081–2100 required
relative to 1986-2005) to 1986-2005)

RCP
8.5
Large High level
Low Coal-fired power Cars, trucks 3.7 °C 0.63 m increase at high cost

RCP
6.0
Moderate Medium level
Medium Mix Mix 2.2 °C 0.48 m increase at medium cost

RCP
4.5
Moderate Medium level
Medium Renewable Mix 1.8 °C 0.47 m increase at medium cost

RCP
2.6
Emissions Bicycles, public Small Low level
High Renewable capture transport 1.0 °C 0.4 m increase at low cost

Where do the RCPs We can use the RCPs to plan for the future
come from? Scientists use the RCPs to model climate change and build scenarios about the
The RCPs were used in the impacts. You can use these scenarios to plan for the future.
Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) in 2014 as a We are RCP If we follow the RCP 8.5 pathway,
RCP 8.5 leads to much
basis for the report’s findings. here 8.5 more adaptation greater temperature
will be needed. increases, and this
Previous IPCC assessment reports
Emissions

used a set of scenarios known as means greater impacts

SRES (Special Report on Emissions and greater costs. To
RCP
Scenarios), which start with 6.0 adapt to these changes
socioeconomic circumstances from will also cost more. A
which emissions trajectories and RCP balance must be struck
climate impacts are projected. In 4.5 between the cost of
contrast, RCPs fix the emissions If we follow the RCP 2.6 pathway, impacts and the cost
RCP
trajectory and resultant of adaptation.
2.6 less adaptation
radiative forcing rather than the 2010 2050 2100 is needed.
socioeconomic circumstances. Time

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