Task 4: Considerations of possible effects of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Precipitation events are the main drivers of hydrological variability as a function of time in
catchments which cause the flooding around the globe. Changes in rainfall characteristics
and distribution, either short-term or long-term, seasonal or yearly, influence the
occurrence of flooding and droughts. Research suggests variation in rainfall systems and
belts in various regions across the globe resulting in recurrent and extreme weather event.
These changes are attributed to changing demographics, environmental degradation
followed with industrialization, carbon emissions and so on. The sensitivity of hydrological
system to climate change results in socioeconomic disruption and effects the sectors of
energy sources, environment, infrastructure, biodiversity, agriculture, built-environment
and health. In summary, few of the global and regional critical issues associated with
climate change are floods, droughts, heat wave, winds and hurricanes.

Literature suggests that anthropogenic activities are the dominant source of Australia’s
climate. Statistical analysis of temperature data indicates a rise in temperature of 1.4 °C
due to human-caused green house gases. This results in an atmosphere holding more
moisture in wet season and lesser water vapor content in drier periods, leading to extreme
precipitation or longer and intense drought periods.
Australian Rainfall & Runoff (ARR) manual is consulted for adjusted design flows under
climate change consideration. The choice of RCP 4.5 for the basis of design with low
greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration pathway is opted as a reasonable choice based
on the maximum consensus case and minimum recommendation in research literature. On
the other hand, the RCP 2.6 requires ambitious global emission reduction, the likelihood of
which happening is limited. According the Bureau of Meteorology, the Intensity Rainfall
Depth curves are given below for the study area.

Assuming the service life of the asset is 40 years from now, the influence of potential
climate change is considered in the case study as a part of the decision tree. The Probable
Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is determined to set the flood design standard for Probable
Maximum Flood (PMF). Another assumption made in the case study is that the nature of
the asset is defined to be of high consequence. The study area falls in the classification of
Murray Basin Cluster described in the Natural Resources Management (NRM Cluster).
 Temperature Class Interval (°C)
Slightly warmer Warmer Hotter Much hotter
Year < 0.5 0.5 to 1.5 1.5 to 3.0 >3.0,
(median)
RCP4.5 and 40 GCMs
2040 1 38 1
2050 31 9
2060 18 22
RCP8.5 and 42 GCMs
2040 32 10
2050 10 32
2060 1 40 1 (3.1)

There are 22 models that indicate the likelihood of class “Warmer” at service year of 2060
while there are 40 models indicating “Hotter” class of the temperature change upon
consensus. The rainfall intensity is adjusted based on the NRM cluster classification of the
study area, service life and RCP extracted temperature class interval and utilizing the
equation suggested in ARR Book-1, Chapter-6. The IARR design rainfall intensity for current
climate condition against 1% and 10% AEP having values 94 mm/hr and 57 mm/hr under
current climate condition of 15 minutes period is adjusted

- RCP 4.5 based adjustment:

Tm = (1.5+3.0)/2 = 2.25 °C

Ip(1:100) = IARR x 1.05Tm = 105.5 mm/hr

Ip(1:10) = IARR x 1.05Tm = 60.06 mm/hr

 - RCP 8.0 based adjustment:

Tm = (1.5+3.0)/2 = 2.25 °C

Ip(1:100) = IARR x 1.05Tm = 105.5 mm/hr

Ip(1:10) = IARR x 1.05Tm = 64 mm/hr

The difference in precipitation intensity between current and future projections of RCP 4.5
and RCP 8.0 is 12% and 11.3% respectively for Ip(1:100) and Ip(1:10). The adjusted values of IFDs
can be then used for future scenario flood occurrence analysis.